out to 20 years. Developers are typically more certain about shorter term intentions (next
5 years), as most of these already have a current subdivision approval or are close to
gaining approval.
This map publishes the results of the 282 projects where a full response was received. The
survey process ensured that all large developments (more than 100 lots) were captured in
the survey results.
Although this survey is not able to pick up many the smaller or infill developments that
are also critical to our total housing supply, these are incorporated into the broader UDP
assessment of land and dwelling supply.
The sector tables show ownership, subdivision approvals pending or granted, anticipated
timing, and the lot and dwelling yield potential of intended developments identified in the
survey, as reported by the respondents.
The scope of the survey includes all previous survey respondents; developers or
organisations and their projects identified in the previous MDP; and those individuals
or organisations with a current application for conditional approval for 5 or more lots or
dwellings identified in the Department of Planning’s (DoP) subdivision approval system.
The survey includes:
Dwelling yield for period 2009/10 up to 2020 and beyond
•
•
•
•
•
residential subdivision;
clustered and semi detached dwellings;
flats, units and apartments;
rural-residential and special residential developments; and
other developments of a residential nature, including aged care.
The Urban Development Program (UDP) monitors urban land supply and demand and
coordinates the actions required of state and local government agencies for the efficient
planning and provision of physical and social infrastructure for new development. The UDP
encompasses land development for residential, industrial commercial purposes across the
state.
The UDP follows on from the previous Metropolitan Development Program (MDP) which
was responsible for monitoring residential land supply from the early 1990s to 2006. In
addition, the UDP encompasses the former Country Land Development Program and the
Industrial Land Development Program.
As the State recovers from the effects of the global financial crisis, led in part by renewed
growth in the resources sector, demand for additional developed land will rise. This
program identifies the areas that will provide the land needed for these future residents
and businesses.
This component of the UDP focuses on future residential land and dwelling development
intentions for the Perth Metropolitan Region and the Mandurah and Murray local
government areas.
Reliable information on the real land supply situation is critical for the public, private
developers and government to make informed investment decisions; however there has
been a lack of comprehensive and accurate information on available land supply.
Figures quoted by industry bodies only report on a part of the total land supply picture and
can overemphasise the importance of sub-segments of the development market and rely
too heavily on short term fluctuations in statistics rather than on trends.
The UDP aims to produce the most comprehensive picture of land supply through a
bottom-up process of identifying all land with development potential within a 20-year
period. This survey is the first step in building a comprehensive land supply picture which
is then augmented with additional land supply information.
In addition to this survey, the UDP gathers information on residential land development
from a variety of other sources, including:
•
•
•
•
•
structure plans and other strategic plans
region and local planning schemes, amendments and rezonings
state and local governments and industry information regarding likely developments
subscription databases of development projects in the pipeline
newspaper articles and media statements
Survey Results
Developers’ Land and Dwellings Intentions Survey
The survey aims to identify the number of lots and dwellings in larger land and dwelling
development projects over the next 20 year period and where these developments will
occur. Due to the large number of small developments it is not possible to capture them all,
so the survey is limited to developments that yield 5 or more lots or dwellings.
The survey originally identified 560 separate residential development projects that would
create 5 or more residential lots or dwellings. Survey forms were sent to developers, land
owners and planning consultants responsible for these projects.
Total projects
identified for survey
560
This survey identifies most of the future greenfield residential land development that will be
developed over the next 10 years, although we do ask developers to provide their intentions
Not proceeding with
development
14
Partial response,
project delayed etc
14
Developer
changed, land
sold etc
108
Full response
to survey
282
Larger developers were given the option of a survey interview process to capture more
qualitative information about the factors affecting development timeframes for major
projects.
Intended Dwelling Development 2009/10 to 2013/14
The survey is an input to the Urban Development Program, which is used as an information
resource by infrastructure servicing agencies and local governments to facilitate planning,
budget requirements and deliver infrastructure that is needed to service and enable
development.
The survey data also forms an important part of the Department of Planning’s (DoP)
knowledge base and is actively applied to the production of small area forecasts via the
metropolitan land use and forecasting system. The model produces population and labour
force forecasts at the suburb level which assists the DoP in undertaking regional and subregional structure planning, employment projections and transport planning.
The survey also identifies the major development constraints to enable the planning reform
process to focus on the most critical factors that are delaying land development and/or
increasing development costs.
Additional Survey Outputs
The Developers’ Land and Dwelling Intentions Survey does not just provide information
on lot and dwelling yields, but also other information that informs the Urban Development
Program. These include change of ownership, which can show an area being consolidated
for development and therefore creating more certainty that a particular area is more likely
to be developed sooner rather than later.
The 2009 Developers’ Land and Dwelling Intentions Survey was similar to the previous
years’ surveys. The scope of the participants was widened to range from major land
developers to owner developers to developers who specialise in the built form. This was
to cast the net as wide as possible to gather as much information about all parts of the
planning process. Responses can fit into many parts of the planning process. Information
can range from:
In addition, the 2009 survey process asked about broader development constraints
including lack of development finance, high development costs, poor access to consultants
and contractors, difficulties clearing subdivision conditions with state or local authorities,
and uncertainties regarding future market demand. This information allows a comparison
with the survey conducted in 2006 in response to land supply issues at that time (the
Residential Developers Survey Lot Supply, Sales Outlook and Development Delays, June
2006).
A separate publication will be produced to discuss these components of the survey, with
a focus on the major development constraints and progress towards reducing the impact
of those constraints.
Intended Dwelling Development
SINGLE LOT YIELD BY YEAR
Sector
Planning Implications
• Land needing a rezoning from rural to residential;
• Land requiring structure planning or having recently been structured planned with
development occurring over the next 20 years;
• Land with an active subdivision approval where most planning and infrastructure
issues have been resolved;
• Land where development is in progress, but where environmental, planning or
development constraints are delaying progress to final subdivision;
• Apartments, retirement villages and grouped dwellings with a development
application approval
Projects with some
response/information
418
No response or information
142
• 102 033 residential dwellings intended for development in the Perth metropolitan
region; plus
• 20 256 dwellings in the Mandurah and Murray local government areas; giving
• a combined total of 122 289 dwellings in Perth, Mandurah and Murray in larger
development projects.
It should be noted there are an additional 278 projects that could also yield additional
dwellings over the next decade, however, the yields from those projects are not included
in the figures above.
Future Residential Land Supply
Urban Development Program
From 2009/10 up to 2020 and beyond, the 282 full survey responses identified:
2009/10
2010/11
2011/12
2012/13
2013/14
Inner
Middle
North-West
North-East
South-East
South-West
Peel
63
157
1831
828
1583
1385
280
123
158
2148
1158
1759
2500
633
164
117
2729
1498
1839
2082
914
121
41
2851
1581
2292
2000
840
7
1
2381
1168
2036
2018
740
Total
6147
8479
9343
9726
8351
2009/10
2010/11
2011/12
2012/13
2013/14
2014/15
2018/19
2019/20+
Unknown
Inner
Middle
North-West
North-East
South-East
South-West
Peel
73
271
1834
890
1686
1586
282
368
534
225
1284
1759
276
853
1085
351
2969
1604
1861
2633
1278
203
367
3292
1695
2389
2341
1154
117
16
2805
1237
2132
2318
1283
64
49
8773
4492
5843
7652
7498
0
0
1737
1469
2386
8480
7424
7109
127
140
6150
165
2679
606
Total
6622
9816
11781
1
9908
34371
21496
16976
Sector