12-1 Confidence Interval for Slope of Regression Line

SWBAT: Construct and Interpret a Confidence Interval for a Linear Regression Model
Lesson 12-1
Do Now:
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SWBAT: Construct and Interpret a Confidence Interval for a Linear Regression Model
Lesson 12-1
Linear Regression Inference
Conditions for Regression Inference ​
L​inear:​ Examine the scatterplot to check that the overall pattern is roughly linear. Look for ​
curved patterns in the residual plot. C heck to see that the residuals center on the “residual = 0” ​
line at each x-value in the residual plot. ​
I​ndependent: ​
N​ormal:​ Make a stemplot, histogram, or Normal probability plot of the residuals and check for ​
clear skewness or other major departures from Normality. ​
Eq​ ual variance:​ Look at the scatter of the residuals above and below the “residual = 0” line in ​
the residual plot. The amount of scatter should be roughly the same from the smallest to the ​
largest x-value. ​
Ra​ ndom:​ See if the data were produced by random sampling or a randomized experiment. ​
Constructing a Confidence Interval for the Slope of the Regression Line
statistic ± (critical value) · (standard deviation of statistic)
 ± ​∗​ ​​
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In this formula, the standard error of the slope is
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​​ =​
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​
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​​ √​ − 
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SWBAT: Construct and Interpret a Confidence Interval for a Linear Regression Model
Lesson 12-1
Confidence Interval for a Slope EXAMPLE:
In C hapter 3, we examined data from a study that investigated why some people don’t gain ​
weight even when they overeat. Perhaps fidgeting and other “nonexercise ​
activity” (NEA) explains why—some people may spontaneously increase nonexercise activity ​
when fed more. Researchers deliberately overfed a random sample of 16 healthy young adults ​
for 8 weeks. They measured fat gain (in kilograms) and change in energy use (in calories) from ​
activity other than deliberate exercise—fidgeting, daily living, and the like—for each ​
subject. Here are the data: ​
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Minitab output from a least-squares regression analysis for these data is shown below. ​
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Construct and interpret a 90% confidence interval for the slope of the population ​
regression line. ​
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SWBAT: Construct and Interpret a Confidence Interval for a Linear Regression Model
Lesson 12-1
SWBAT: Construct and Interpret a Confidence Interval for a Linear Regression Model
Lesson 12-1
You Try!! ​
Do beavers benefit beetles? Researchers laid out 23 circular plots, each four meters in diameter, ​
at random in an area where beavers were cutting down cottonwood trees. In each plot, they ​
counted the number of stumps from trees cut by beavers and the number of clusters of beetle ​
larvae. Ecologists think that the new sprouts from stumps are more tender than other ​
cottonwood growth, so that beetles prefer them. If so, more stumps should produce more beetle ​
larvae.
Minitab output for a regression analysis on these data is shown below. C onstruct and interpret a
99% confidence interval for the slope of the population regression line. Assume that the
conditions for performing inference are met.
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SWBAT: Construct and Interpret a Confidence Interval for a Linear Regression Model
Lesson 12-1
LESSON PRACTICE
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1. Here is one way in which nature regulates the size of animal populations: high population ​
density attracts predators, which remove a higher proportion of the population than when the ​
density of the prey is low. One study looked at kelp perch and their common predator, the kelp ​
bass. The researcher set up four large circular pens on sandy ocean bottoms off the coast of ​
southern C alifornia. He chose young perch at random from a large group and placed ​
10, 20, 40, and 60 perch in the four pens. Then he dropped the nets protecting the ​
pens, allowing bass to swarm in, and counted the perch left after two hours. Here are data on ​
the proportions of perch eaten in four repetitions of this setup: ​
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We used Minitab software to carry out a least-squares regression analysis for these data. A ​
residual plot and a histogram of the residuals are shown below. ​
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C omputer output from the least-squares regression analysis on the perch data is shown below. ​
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C onstruct and interpret a 90% confidence interval for the slope of the true regression line. ​
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SWBAT: Construct and Interpret a Confidence Interval for a Linear Regression Model
Lesson 12-1
2. ​How well does the number of beers a person drinks predict his or her blood alcohol ​
content (BAC )? Sixteen volunteers with an initial BAC of 0 drank a randomly assigned number of ​
cans of beer. Thirty minutes later, a police officer measured their BAC . Least-squares regression ​
was performed on the data. A residual plot and a histogram of the residuals are shown below. ​
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C omputer output from the least-squares regression analysis on the beer and blood alcohol data ​
is shown below. ​
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C onstruct and interpret a 99% confidence interval for the slope of the true regression line. ​