A 300 kyr record of aridity and wind strength in Southwestern Africa

%O]VVIGSVHSJEVMHMX]ERH[MRHWXVIRKXL
MRWSYXL[IWXIVR%JVMGE
MRJIVIRGIWJVSQKVEMRWM^IHMWXVMFYXMSRW
SJWIHMQIRXWSR;EPZMW6MHKI7)%XPERXMG
%FWXVEGX
8LI XIVVMKIRSYW JVEGXMSR SJ WIHMQIRXW VIGSZIVIH JVSQ ;EPZMW 6MHKI 7) %XPERXMG
3GIER VIZIEPW E LMWXSV] SJ WSYXL[IWXIVR %JVMGER GPMQEXI SJ XLI PEWX O]V )RH
QIQFIVQSHIPPMRKSJEHEXEWIXSJKVEMRWM^IHMWXVMFYXMSRWR!VIWYPXWMRXLVIIIRH
QIQFIVW8LIX[SGSEVWIWXIRHQIQFIVWEVIMRXIVTVIXIHEWEISPMERHYWXXLIXLMVHIRH
QIQFIV EW LIQMTIPEKMG QYH 8LI VEXMS SJ XLI X[S EISPMER IRH QIQFIVW VIJPIGXW XLI
EISPMERKVEMRWM^IERHMWEXXVMFYXIHXSXLIMRXIRWMX]SJXLI7)XVEHI[MRHW8VEHI[MRHW
[IVI MRXIRWMJMIH HYVMRK KPEGMEPW GSQTEVIH XS MRXIVKPEGMEPW 'LERKIW MR XLI VEXMS SJ XLI
X[S EISPMER IRH QIQFIVW SZIV XLI LIQMTIPEKMG SRI EVI MRXIVTVIXIH EW ZEVMEXMSRW MR
WSYXL[IWXIVR %JVMGER EVMHMX] 0EXI 5YEXIVREV] WSYXL[IWXIVR %JVMGER GPMQEXI [EW
VIPEXMZIP] EVMH HYVMRK XLI MRXIVKPEGMEP WXEKIW ERH VIPEXMZIP] LYQMH HYVMRK XLI KPEGMEP
WXEKIWS[MRKXSQIVMHMSREPWLMJXWMRXLIEXQSWTLIVMGGMVGYPEXMSRW]WXIQ(YVMRKKPEGMEPW
XLITSPEVJVSRXWLMJXIHIUYEXSV[EVHVIWYPXMRKMRERSVXL[EVHHMWTPEGIQIRXSJXLI^SRI
SJ[IWXIVPMIWGEYWMRKMRGVIEWIHVEMRJEPPMRWSYXL[IWXIVR%JVMGE8LIIUYEXSV[EVHWLMJXSJ
XLITSPEVJVSRXMWGSYTPIH[MXLERMRGVIEWISJXLIQIVMHMSREPTVIWWYVIKVEHMIRXPIEHMRK
XSIRLERGIHEXQSWTLIVMGGMVGYPEXMSRERHMRGVIEWIHXVEHI[MRHMRXIRWMX]
'LETXIV
-RXVSHYGXMSR
8IVVMKIRSYWWIHMQIRXWHITSWMXIHMRXLIWYFXVSTMGEPHIITWIEEVIEQM\XYVISJETIPEKMG
GSQTSRIRXFVSYKLXMRF]XLI[MRHERHELIQMTIPEKMGGSQTSRIRXFVSYKLXMRF]VMZIVW
ERH WYTTPMIH JVSQ XLI WLIPJ 8IVVMKIRSYW WIHMQIRXW IWGETMRK JVSQ WLIPZIW EVI QEMRP]
HITSWMXIH SR XLI WPSTI ERH VMWI F] PS[HIRWMX] XYVFMHMX] GYVVIRXW ERH RITLIPSMHPE]IV
WIHMQIRXEXMSR8LIJPY\SJLIQMTIPEKMGWIHMQIRXWMWEWWSGMEXIH[MXLGSRXMRIRXEPVYRSJJ
XLYWTVSZMHMRKETVS\]JSVGSRXMRIRXEPLYQMHMX]4VMRW;IPXNI8LIEREP]WMWSJ
EISPMERHYWXXLIVIJSVIEPPS[WXLIIWXMQEXMSRSJEVMHMX]MREISPMERWSYVGIVIKMSRWXLVSYKL
JPY\ HIXIVQMREXMSRW ERH XLI MRXIRWMX] SJ XLI XVERWTSVXMRK [MRHW XLVSYKL KVEMRWM^I
QIEWYVIQIRXW 6IE %ISPMER WIHMQIRXW HITSWMXIH MR XLI HIIT WIE GPSWI XS XLI
GSRXMRIRXEVIGSEVWIVKVEMRIHXLERLIQMTIPEKMGWIHMQIRXW/SSTQERR7EVRXLIMR
IXEP7MVSGOS4VMRW;IPXNI8LYWMJXLIQM\XYVISJXIVVMKIRSYW
WIHMQIRXWGERFIYRQM\IHSRXLIFEWMWSJXLIKVEMRWM^ISJXLIHMJJIVIRXGSQTSRIRXWMX
GERFIYWIHXSVIGSRWXVYGXGLERKIWMRGSRXMRIRXEPGPMQEXI
-R XLMW WXYH] [I ETTPMIH ER MRZIVWMSR EPKSVMXLQ JSV IRHQIQFIV QSHIPPMRK SJ
GSQTSWMXMSREP HEXE ;IPXNI XS XLI KVEMRWM^I HMWXVMFYXMSRW JVSQ E GSVI JVSQ
;EPZMW6MHKI8LMWQIXLSHHIZIPSTIHJSVYRQM\MRKSJQYPXMTPIWSYVGIHFEWMRJMPPWMWE
TS[IVJYP XSSP JSV XLI YRQM\MRK SJ KVEMRWM^I HMWXVMFYXMSRW XLEX EVI GSQTSWIH SJ
WIHMQIRXWYFTSTYPEXMSRWMIIRHQIQFIVW4VMRW;IPXNI4VMRWIXEPF
;EPZMW 6MHKI MW E 2)7; SVMIRXEXIH ZSPGERMG VMHKI I\XIRHMRK JVSQ XLI 2SVXL
2EQMFMERGSEWXXSXLI1MH%XPERXMG6MHKI%PXLSYKLXLIXIVVMKIRSYWWIHMQIRXJVEGXMSR
QEOIWYTSRP]EWQEPPTEVXSJXLIWIHMQIRXXLEXMWHSQMRERXP]GSQTSWIHSJGEPGEVISYW
SS^IWXLIWIPERHHIVMZIHGSQTSRIRXWEVIPMOIP]XSGSRXEMREWMKRMJMGERXTVSTSVXMSR SJ
EISPMERHYWXS[MRKXSXLILMKLEPXMXYHISJXLIVMHKIVIPEXMZIXSXLIWYVVSYRHMRKWIE
JPSSV b Q OIITMRK SJJ VI[SVOIH WIHMQIRXW ERH XYVFMHMX] GYVVIRXW JVSQ XLI
GSRXMRIRXEPWPSTIMXWTVS\MQMX]XSXLI2EQMFERH/EPELEVM(IWIVXWXSXLI7SYXLIEWX
ERH XLI TVIZEMPMRK 7) XVEHI[MRH W]WXIQ 3YV SFNIGXMZIW EVI XS YRVEZIP E PEXI
5YEXIVREV] O]V KVEMRWM^I VIGSVH SJ JMRIKVEMRIH XIVVMKIRSYW WIHMQIRXW JVSQ
;EPZMW 6MHKI XS EXXVMFYXI XLI VIGSRWXVYGXIH IRH QIQFIVW XS XLI XVERWTSVX
QIGLERMWQWSJPERHHIVMZIHWIHMQIRXWERHXSYWIXLIVIWYPXWJSVXLIVIGSRWXVYGXMSR
SJXLITEPISGPMQEXIIZSPYXMSRSJWSYXL[IWXIVR%JVMGE
4VIZMSYWVIGSRWXVYGXMSRWSJWSYXL[IWXIVR%JVMGERGPMQEXI
8LIVIMWEPEGOSJORS[PIHKISRXLIREXYVISJPEXI5YEXIVREV]GPMQEXIGLERKI [MXLMR
HIWIVX W]WXIQW [LMGL PMQMXW XLI ORS[PIHKI SJ TEWX IRZMVSRQIRXEP GLERKIW EX PS[
PEXMXYHIW +ISQSVTLSPSKMGEP WXYHMIW LEZI JSGYWWIH SR XLI SVMKMR SJ XLI 2EQMF ERH
/EPELEVM (IWIVXW ERH XLIMV TEPISGPMQEXI HIZIPSTQIRX XLVSYKL XMQI FYX GSRXMRYSYW
GSRXMRIRXEP GPMQEXI VIGSVHW JVSQ WSYXL[IWXIVR %JVMGE EVI VIPEXMZIP] WGEVGI :ER
>MRHIVIR&EOOIV0ERGEWXIV1IEHS[W6YWX:SKIP7GSXX
4EVXVMHKI,IMRI7XSOIWIXEP8LSQEWIXEP%RYQFIVSJ
TVS\MIWLEZIFIIRYWIHXSVIGSRWXVYGXGPMQEXILMWXSV]SRXLIFEWMWSJXIVVIWXVMEPVIGSVHW
IKHYRIGVYWXSVMIRXEXMSRWTIPISXLIQWGEPGVIXIWJPYZMEPERHPEOIHITSWMXWTSPPIRERH
IZIR QSPIVEXW :ER >MRHIVIR &EOOIV F 7GSXX /PIMR &VSSO IX EP
4EVXVMHKIIXEP4EVXVMHKI IX EP %XXIQTXW [IVI QEHI XS GSRWXVYGX
GSRXMRYSYW VIGSVHW F] WXEGOMRK HEXE JVSQ HMJJIVIRX WMXIW ERH XMQI MRXIVZEPW
%O]VVIGSVHSJ[MRHWXVIRKXLERHEVMHMX]
9RJSVXYREXIP]S[MRKXSXLIIJJIGXWSJPSGEPGSRHMXMSRWERHHEXMRKYRGIVXEMRXMIWVIGSVHW
SJXIRGSRXVEHMGX(VIMQERMWIXEP7LE[IXEP7XSOIWIXEP8LSQEW
-R XLIMV GSQTMPEXMSR SJ WSYXL[IWXIVR %JVMGER GPMQEXI JSV XLI PEWX O]V
'SGOVSJXIXEPGSRGPYHIXLEXXLI0EWX+PEGMEP1E\MQYQ0+1bO]V&4MR
WSYXLIVR %JVMGE [EW GSSPIV ERH [IXXIV XLER XSHE] &VSSO IX EP TVIWIRXIH
WTIPISXLIQ XYJE ERH WERHHYRI HEXE XLEX HIQSRWXVEXI XLI SGGYVVIRGI SJ WIZIVEP [IX
TIVMSHW HYVMRK XLI PEWX O]V 8LIWI [IX TIVMSHW SGGYVVIH W]RGLVSRSYWP] SZIV XLI
7SYXLIVR%JVMGERGSRXMRIRXERHWLS[RSGPIEVKPEGMEPMRXIVKPEGMEPTEXXIVRMRGSRXVEWXXS
IEVPMIV JMRHMRKW F] 'SGOVSJX IX EP :ER >MRHIVIR &EOOIV ERH 8]WSR
% QIGLERMWQ JSV MRGVIEWIH LYQMHMX] HYVMRK KPEGMEPW MR WSYXLIVR %JVMGE [EW
TVIWIRXIHF]:ER>MRHIVIR&EOOIVERHPEXIVGSVVSFSVEXIHF]QSHIPWXYHMIWSJ
8]WSR 8LI] GSRGPYHIH XLEX XLI TSPEV JVSRX QYWX LEZI FIIR WYFNIGX XS 27
QSZIQIRXWHYVMRKXLI0EXI5YEXIVREV](YVMRKKPEGMEPWXLIJVSRXWLMJXIHIUYEXSV[EVH
[LMGL VIWYPXIH MR E RSVXL[EVH HMWTPEGIQIRX SJ XLI GPMQEXI ^SRIW WS XLEX XLI ^SRI SJ
QSMWX [IWXIVPMIW VIEGLIH WSYXL[IWXIVR %JVMGE VIWYPXMRK MR MRGVIEWIH VEMRJEPP (YVMRK
MRXIVKPEGMEPWXEKIWXLITSPEVJVSRXLEHWLMJXIHWSYXLVIWYPXMRKMRETSPI[EVHHMWTPEGIQIRX
SJXLIGPMQEXI^SRIW
8LI QEVMRI VIEPQ MW JEZSYVEFPI JSV XLI GSRWXVYGXMSR SJ YRMRXIVVYTXIH TEPISGPMQEXI
VIGSVHW WMRGI WIHMQIRXEXMSR MW SJXIR GSRXMRYSYW ERH EKI GSRXVSP GER FI SFXEMRIH
VIPEXMZIP] IEW] YWMRK XLI S\]KIRMWSXSTI GSQTSWMXMSR SJ JSVEQMRMJIVW -QFVMI IX EP
1EVXMRWSRIXEP%RYQFIVSJWXYHMIWLEZIGSRGIRXVEXIHSRWSYXL[IWXIVR
%JVMGERTEPISGPMQEXIF]EREP]WMRKJMRIKVEMRIHXIVVMKIRSYWWIHMQIRXWTSPPIRJVIWL[EXIV
HMEXSQW ERH TL]XSPMXLW XVERWTSVXIH XS XLI SGIER JPSSV :ER >MRHIVIR &EOOIV E
(MIWXIV,EE—.ERWIR:ER-TIVIR+MRKIPI7LM(YTSRX
(YTSRX IX EP 7LM IX EP 7LM IX EP 8LIWI WXYHMIW WLS[IH XLEX
GLERKIWMRXLIXVEHI[MRHW]WXIQERHGLERKIWMRWSYXL[IWXIVR%JVMGERGPMQEXIHYVMRK
XLI PEXI 5YEXIVREV] LEZI LEH PEVKI IJJIGXW SR XLI XVERWTSVX SJ [MRHFPS[R ERH VMZIV
XVERWTSVXIHQEXIVMEPXSXLI7)%XPERXMG3GIER,S[IZIVXLIVIMWRSGSRWIRWYWSRXLI
WSYXL[IWXIVR %JVMGER GPMQEXI LMWXSV] *SV I\EQTPI :ER >MRHIVIR &EOOIV F
GSRGPYHIHXLEXRSWMKRMJMGERXGLERKIMRVEMRJEPPSGGYVVIHMRWSYXL[IWXIVR%JVMGEHYVMRK
XLI PEWX O]V [LIVIEW EGGSVHMRK XS 7LM IX EP XLI 0+1 MR XLMW VIKMSR [EW
GLEVEGXIVMWIHF]VIPEXMZIP]GSPHERHEVMHGSRHMXMSRW,S[IZIVX[S]IEVWPEXIVXLIWEQI
EYXLSVW 7LM IX EP GSRGPYHI XLEX XLI VIKMSR [EW MRJPYIRGIH F] RSVXL[EVH
QSZIQIRXWSJXLI[MRXIVVEMRVIKMQIGEYWMRKMRGVIEWIHVEMRJEPPHYVMRKXLI0+1
-RWYQQEV]XLIVIMWRSGSRWIRWYWSRXLIWSYXL[IWXIVR%JVMGERGPMQEXILMWXSV]EW]IX
RIMXLIVJVSQPERHVIGSVHWRSVJVSQQEVMRIVIGSVHW-RXLMWWXYH][IIZEPYEXIXLIKVEMR
WM^I HMWXVMFYXMSRW SJ XLI XIVVMKIRSYW WIHMQIRX JVEGXMSR MR -QEKIW -- GSVI 1(
&IVXVERHIXEPJVSQ;EPZMW6MHKIEWETVS\]JSVEVMHMX]ERH[MRHWXVIRKXL MR
WSYXL[IWXIVR%JVMGE
1EXIVMEPWERH1IXLSHW
'SVI1([EWVIGSZIVIHJVSQ;EPZMW6MHKIEX­7­)EX
Q [EXIV HITXL *MKYVI 8LMW Q PSRK GSVI JYPP] GSZIVW XLI PEWX b O]V
&IVXVERH IX EP 8LI HSQMRERX PMXLSPSK] SJ XLI GSVI MW JSVEQMRMJIV RERRSJSWWMP
'LETXIV
SS^I 8LI GSVI [EW WEQTPIH EX GQ MRXIVZEPW JVSQ XLI JMVWX QIXVIW FIPS[ WIE
JPSSV QFWJ ERH EX GQ MRXIVZEPW JVSQ QFWJ [MXL X[S WIVMIW SJ QP
W]VMRKIW8LIWIWEQTPIW[IVIYWIHJSVWXEFPIS\]KIRMWSXSTIEREP]WMWERHJSVKVEMRWM^I
EREP]WMW
*MKYVI 0SGEXMSRW SJ GSVIW 1( ERH +IS& 0MXXPI IX EP F MR XLI 7) %XPERXMG
3GIER ;LMXI HSXXIH PMRI XVERWIGX EPSRK [LMGL XLI TVIWIRXHE] HYWX WEQTPI [EW GSPPIGXIH
&EXL]QIXV] MW WLS[R MR GSRXSYV MRXIVZEPW SJ Q %RRYEP VEMRJEPP MW MRHMGEXIH MR QQ ;EZ]
PMRIW ^SRI SJ [MRH HVMZIR GSEWXEP YT[IPPMRK
8SWITEVEXIXLIXIVVMKIRSYWWIHMQIRXJVEGXMSRJSVKVEMRWM^IEREP]WMWGEPGMYQGEVFSREXI
SVKERMGGEVFSRERHFMSKIRMGSTEP[IVIGEVIJYPP]VIQSZIHYWMRKVITIEXIHP]I\GIWW,%G
FYJJIVT,!EX­'WIITJSVEHIXEMPIHHIWGVMTXMSRSJXLMWQIXLSH,3EX
­' ERH 2E3, 1 EX ­' JSV QMRYXIW VIWTIGXMZIP] 1MGVSWGSTI EREP]WIW
VIZIEPIH XLEX XLMW QIXLSH WYGGIWWJYPP] VIQSZIH EPP FMSKIRMG GSRWXMXYIRXW +VEMRWM^I
EREP]WIW [IVI GEVVMIH SYX MR XLI WIHMQIRXSPSK] PEFSVEXSV] 9XVIGLX 9RMZIVWMX] SR E
%O]VVIGSVHSJ[MRHWXVIRKXLERHEVMHMX]
1EPZIVR-RWXVYQIRXW1EWXIVWM^IV7YWMRKEPIRW[MXLQQJSGEPPIRKXL8LMWVIWYPXW
MRKVEMRWM^IHMWXVMFYXMSRWJVSQ®QMRWM^IGPEWWIW&IGEYWIXLIXIVVMKIRSYW
WIHMQIRX JVEGXMSR JVSQ ;EPZMW 6MHKI MW JMRIKVEMRIH ®Q *MKYVI % XLI
RYQFIV SJ MRTYX ZEVMEFPIW JSV XLI IRHQIQFIV QSHIP MW VIHYGIH JVSQ XS WM^I
GPEWWIWMRXLIVERKI®Q8SIWXMQEXIXLIQMRMQYQRYQFIV SJIRHQIQFIVW
VIUYMVIHJSVEWEXMWJEGXSV]ETTVS\MQEXMSR SJXLIHEXEXLIGSIJJMGMIRXWSJ HIXIVQMREXMSR
[IVI GEPGYPEXIH 8LI GSIJJMGMIRX SJ HIXIVQMREXMSR VITVIWIRXW XLI TVSTSVXMSR SJ XLI
ZEVMERGISJIEGLKVEMRWM^IGPEWWXLEXGERFIVITVSHYGIHF]XLIETTVS\MQEXIHHEXE8LMW
TVSTSVXMSRMWIUYEPXSXLIWUYEVIHGSVVIPEXMSRGSIJJMGMIRXVSJXLIMRTYXZEVMEFPIWERH
XLIMVETTVS\MQEXIHZEPYIW;IPXNI4VMRW;IPXNI
4VIWIRXHE]EISPMERHYWX[EWGSPPIGXIHEPSRKEXVERWIGX‘k7‘k)XS‘k7
‘k)SJJXLI2EQMFMERGSEWX*MKYVIHYVMRKXLI-QEKIW--I\TIHMXMSR&IVXVERH
IX EP YWMRK ER %RHIVWSR HYWX WEQTPIV QSHIP +1;0 [LMGL [EW PSGEXIH
bQEFSZIWIEPIZIP(YVMRKXLIWEQTPMRKTIVMSHE77;JSVGI&JX[MRHTVIZEMPIH
8LIHYWX[EWVMRWIHSJJXLIJMPXIVJSPPS[MRKXLIQIXLSHHIWGVMFIHF]/MIJIVXERH
/MIJIVX IX EP YWMRK HIQMRIVEPMWIH [EXIV MRWXIEH SJ XVM7SHMYQ SVXLSTLSWTLEXI
WIITJSVEHIXEMPIHHIWGVMTXMSRSJXLIQIXLSH
)MKLXXSXIR[IPPTVIWIVZIHERHGPIERWTIGMQIRW SJTPEROXSRMGJSVEQMRMJIV+PSFSVSXEPME
MRJPEXEH
3VFMKR][IVILERHTMGOIHYRHIVEFMRSGYPEVQMGVSWGSTIJVSQXLIQ
JVEGXMSRXSEGLMIZIEREREP]XMGEP[IMKLXSJXSQK8LIWXEFPIS\]KIRMWSXSTI
GSQTSWMXMSRSJ+MRJPEXE[IVIQIEWYVIH[MXLE*MRRMKER1%8QEWWWTIGXVSQIXIV
EXXLI*EGLFIVIMGL+IS[MWWIRWGLEJXIRMR&VIQIR
%KIQSHIP
8LI S\]KIRMWSXSTI VIGSVH SJ + MRJPEXE MW GSVVIPEXIH [MXL XLI WXEGOIH VIGSVH SJ
1EVXMRWSRIXEPXSSFXEMREREKIQSHIPJSVGSVI1(*MKYVIW&ERH
' 'SVVIPEXMSR SJ XLI S\]KIRMWSXSTI VIGSVHW [EW IWXEFPMWLIH YWMRK XLI WSJX[EVI
TEGOEKI %REP]WIVMIW ZIVWMSR 4EMPPEVH IX EP 8[IRX]X[S QEVMRI MWSXSTI
IZIRXW1-)[IVIXEOIREWGEPMFVEXMSRTSMRXWJSVXLIEKIQSHIP 8LIJMREPEKIQSHIP
VIWYPXIHJVSQPMRIEVMRXIVTSPEXMSRFIX[IIRXLIEKIGEPMFVEXMSRTSMRXW8LIYTTIVQ
SJXLIWIHMQIRXVIGSVHMRGSVI1(ETTIEVXSWTERXLIPEWXbO]VMIQEVMRI
MWSXSTI WXEKIW 1-7 XS %WWYQMRK RS LMEXYWIW MR WIHMQIRXEXMSR XLI PMRIEV
WIHMQIRXEXMSR VEXI ZEVMIW FIX[IIR ERH GQO]V *MKYVI ( 1-) [EW RSX
VIGSKRMWIHMRXLI δ3GYVZIEWEWMRKPIIZIRX8LMWTLIRSQIREMWX]TMGEPJSVXLIEVIE
7GLRIMHIVIXEP2IZIVXLIPIWWSRIMWSXSTITIEOETTIEVWXSGSMRGMHI[MXL1-)
MR1EVXMRWSR
WGYVZI*MKYVI'
6IWYPXW
8LIQIHMERKVEMRWM^IVIGSVHSJXLIXIVVMKIRSYWJVEGXMSRMRGSVI1(MWWLS[R
MR*MKYVI&1IHMERKVEMRWM^IZEVMIWFIX[IIRERHQ8LIKVEMRWM^IVIGSVHERH
XLI + MRJPEXE δ3 VIGSVH WLS[ ZIV] WMQMPEV TEXXIVRW SZIV XMQI EPFIMX [MXL E WQEPP
TLEWIHMJJIVIRGIMRHMGEXMRKVIPEXMZIP]GSEVWIKVEMRIHQYHHITSWMXMSRHYVMRKMRXIVKPEGMEP
WXEKIW 1-7 ERH VIPEXMZIP] JMRIKVEMRIH QYH HITSWMXMSR HYVMRK KPEGMEP WXEKIW
1-7
'LETXIV
δ
3 } 4(&
1(
+PSFSVSXEPME MRJPEXE
076
1(
1-)
1-7
GQO]V
%KI O]V &4
(ITXL QFWJ
δ3
δ3
} 4(&
+PSFSVSXEPME MRJPEXE
}4(&
74)'1%4
1(
*MKYVI %KI QSHIP
% +PSFSVSXEPME MRJPEXE δ
3VIGSVH ZIVWYW HITXL 1EVMRI -WSXSTMG )ZIRXW
1-) ERH 1EVMRI -WSXSTMG 7XEKIW 1-7 EJXIV 1EVXMRWSR IX EP EVI MRHMGEXIH
& +PSFSVSXEPME MRJPEXE δ 3 VIGSVH ZIVWYW EKI ' 74)'1%4
EP ( 0MRIEV WIHMQIRXEXMSR VEXIW 076
δ
3VIGSVH EJXIV 1EVXMRWSR IX
%O]VVIGSVHSJ[MRHWXVIRKXLERHEVMHMX]
1IHMER KVEMR WM^I ®Q
4VSTSVXMSR IRH QIQFIVW
1-7
%KI O]VW &4
)1 δ
3 }4(&
+PSFSVSXEPME MRJPEXE
)1 )1 *MKYVI 8MQI WIVMIW SJ ZEVMEXMSRW MR QIHMER KVEMR WM^I ERH IRH QIQFIV GSRXVMFYXMSRW SJ XLI
XIVVMKIRSYW WIHMQIRX JVEGXMSR MR GSVI 1( GSQTEVIH [MXL KPSFEP GPMQEXI
MRJPEXE
δ
QIQFIVW
3 } 4(&
&
QIHMER KVEMR WM^I
'
% +PSFSVSXEPME
)RH QIQFIV GSRXVMFYXMSRW SJ XLI XLVII IRH
'LETXIV
8LIEZIVEKIKVEMRWM^IHMWXVMFYXMSRMRGSVI1(LEWEQSHEPKVEMRWM^IRIEV®Q
*MKYVI%*MKYVI&WLS[WXLIGSIJJMGMIRXWSJ HIXIVQMREXMSR V TPSXXIH EKEMRWX
KVEMRWM^IJSVQSHIPW[MXLXSIRHQIQFIVW8LIQIERGSIJJMGMIRXSJHIXIVQMREXMSR
SJ XLI KVEMRWM^I GPEWWIW MRGVIEWIW [LIR XLI RYQFIV SJ IRH QIQFIVW MRGVIEWIW *MKYVI
'TEKI8LIX[SIRHQIQFIVQSHIPVQIER!WLS[WPS[V JSVXLI
WM^I VERKIW ®Q ERH " ®Q 8LI XLVII IRHQIQFIV QSHIP VQIER ! WLS[W
PS[VJSVXLIWM^IVERKI"®QSRP]8LMWGSEVWIIRHMW[IPPVITVSHYGIHF]QSHIPW
[MXL SV QSVI IRH QIQFIVW SRP] *SV XLI GLSMGI SJ XLI RYQFIV SJ IRH QIQFIVW
LS[IZIVXLIGSEVWIIRH"®QGERFIMKRSVIHFIGEYWIMXGSQTVMWIWSRP]PIWWXLER
[IMKLXSJXLIQEWWSJXLIWEQTPIW8LIKVEMRWM^IVERKI ®QSRXLIGSRXVEV]
WLSYPH FI [IPP VITVSHYGIH F] XLI QM\MRK QSHIP FIGEYWI XLMW WM^I VERKI GSRXEMRW E
GSRWMHIVEFPI TVSTSVXMSR SJ XLI WIHMQIRX QEWW 8LI KSSHRIWWSJJMX WXEXMWXMGW XLYW
HIQSRWXVEXIXLEXXLIXLVIIIRHQIQFIVQSHIPTVSZMHIWXLIFIWXGSQTVSQMWIFIX[IIR
XLIRYQFIVSJIRHQIQFIVWERHV
1IER
*VIUYIRG] )1
1E\
)1
1MR
)1
)1
)1
V
+VEMR WM^I ®Q
+VEMR WM^I ®Q
*MKYVI )RHQIQFIV QSHIPPMRK VIWYPXW SJ GSVI 1(
% 7YQQEV] WXEXMWXMGW SJ MRTYX HEXE
KVEMRWM^I HMWXVMFYXMSRW R! QE\MQYQ QIER ERH QMRMQYQ JVIUYIRG] VIGSVHIH MR IEGL WM^I
GPEWW
& 'SIJJMGMIRXW SJ HIXIVQMREXMSR V JSV IEGL WM^I GPEWW SJ QSHIPW [MXL IRH QIQFIVW
8LI KVEMRWM^I HMWXVMFYXMSRW SJ XLI XLVII IRH QIQFIVW EVI WLS[R MR *MKYVI ( %PP
IRHQIQFIVWLEZIEGPIEVP]HIJMRIH HSQMRERXQSHI)RHQIQFIV )1 LEW E QSHEP
KVEMRWM^ISJb®QIRHQIQFIV)1SJb®QERHIRHQIQFIV)1LEWEQSHEP
KVEMR WM^I SJ b ®Q 8LI HS[RGSVI VIGSVH SJ XLI VIPEXMZI GSRXVMFYXMSRW SJ XLI IRH
QIQFIVW MW WLS[R MR *MKYVI ' )RH QIQFIV )1 ZEVMIW FIX[IIR )1
FIX[IIRERH)1FIX[IIR
%O]VVIGSVHSJ[MRHWXVIRKXLERHEVMHMX]
*VIUYIRG] V
QIER
)1
)1
)1
4VIWIRXHE] HYWX
2YQFIV SJ IRH QIQFIVW
+VEMR WM^I ®Q
' 1IER GSIJJMGMIRX SJ
( 1SHIPPIH IRH QIQFIVW SJ
*MKYVI GSRXMRYIH )RHQIQFIV QSHIPPMRK VIWYPXW SJ GSVI 1(
HIXIVQMREXMSR V
SJ EPP WM^I GPEWWIW JSV IEGL IRHQIQFIV QSHIP
QIER
XLI XIVVMKIRSYW WIHMQIRX JVEGXMSR SJ WIHMQIRXW JVSQ ;EPZMW 6MHKI *SV GSQTEVMWSR XLI KVEMRWM^I
HMWXVMFYXMSR SJ XLI TVIWIRXHE] HYWX WEQTPI GSPPIGXIH EPSRK XLI XVERWIGX WLS[R MR *MKYVI MW
TPSXXIH
0EXI5YEXIVREV]WSYXL[IWXIVR%JVMGEREVMHMX]ERHXVEHI[MRHMRXIRWMX]
%ISPMERWIHMQIRXWHITSWMXIHMRXLIHIITWIEGPSWIXSXLIGSRXMRIRXEVIGSEVWIVKVEMRIH
XLERLIQMTIPEKMGWIHMQIRXW8IVVMKIRSYWWIHMQIRXW[MXLQIHMERKVEMRWM^IPEVKIVXLER
®QEVIKIRIVEPP]EXXVMFYXIHXSEISPMERXVERWTSVXERHWQEPPIVXLER®QXSLIQMTIPEKMG
XVERWTSVX 8LMW MW FEWIH SR HIITWIE WIHMQIRX WXYHMIW /SSTQERR 7EVRXLIMR IX
EP7MVSGOS4VMRW;IPXNI4VMRWIXEPEEW[IPPEWWIHMQIRX
XVETWXYHMIW'PIQIRW6EXQI]IVIXEP%WEGSRWIUYIRGI)1ERH)1
EVI GSRWMHIVIH SJ EISPMER ERH )1 SJ LIQMTIPEKMG SVMKMR 8LI EISPMER GLEVEGXIV SJ
)1ERH)1MWGSVVSFSVEXIHF]XLIEKVIIQIRXSJXLIKVEMRWM^IHMWXVMFYXMSRWSJ)1
ERH )1 [MXL XLI TVIWIRXHE] EISPMER HYWX WEQTPI *MKYVI ( 8LI KVEMRWM^I
HMWXVMFYXMSRSJXLITVIWIRXHE]HYWXMWWSQI[LEXGSEVWIVTVSFEFP]HYIXSXLIJEGXXLEXMX
[EWGSPPIGXIHEPSRKEXVERWIGXJVSQXLIGSEWXXSGSVIWMXIWII*MKYVI)RHQIQFIV
)1MWMRXIVTVIXIHEWLIQMTIPEKMGQYHWIXXPIHSYXSJWYWTIRWMSRJVSQRITLIPSMHPE]IVW
8LI RITLIPSMH PE]IVW XLEX TVSHYGIH )1 QE] SVMKMREXI JVSQ XLI ITLIQIVEP VMZIVW
HVEMRMRKXLI'IRXVEP2EQMF(IWIVXSVXLI3VERKI6MZIVERHFIXVERWTSVXIHRSVXL[EVH
F] XLI &IRKYIPE 'YVVIRX (MIWXIV,EE— IX EP ;I GER RSX I\GPYHI TSXIRXMEP
RITLIPSMHPE]IVWJVSQXLI'YRIRI6MZIVXLEXQE]FIXVERWTSVXIHWSYXL[EVHF]XSRKYIW
SJXLI%RKSPE&IRKYIPE*VSRX&VIQRIV;MPPMW-JRITLIPSMHPE]IVJSVQEXMSR
MWVIPEXIHXSWIEPIZIPPS[IVMRKMXQE]LEZIERIJJIGXSRXLITVSTSVXMSRSJ)1MRXLI
WIHMQIRXW ,S[IZIV [I EWWYQI XLEX GSRXMRIRXEP VYRSJJ HSQMREXIW XLI WYTTP] SJ
LIQMTIPEKMG QYH ERH XSKIXLIV [MXL XLI JPY\ SJ EISPMER HYWX HIXIVQMRIW XLI EVMHMX]
VIGSVH
'LETXIV
4VSTSVXMSR EISPMER HYWX 7M^I SJ EISPMER HYWX
)1
)1)1)1
1-7
%KI O]V &4
2
1
3 } 4(&
0
0
δ
2 TEGL]HIVQE
+ MRJPEXE
'SRXMRIRXEP EVMHMX]
;MRH
- WXVIRKXL
+
1
0.5
W 9T[IPPMRK
MRXIRWMX] *MKYVI 6IGSRWXVYGXMSRW SJ 0EXI 5YEXIVREV] EVMHMX] ERH XVEHI[MRH WXVIRKXL MR WSYXL[IWXIVR
%JVMGE
% δ
3 VIGSVH SJ +PSFSVSXEPME MRJPEXE
YWIH EW E TVS\] JSV GSRXMRIRXEP EVMHMX]
TVS\]
JSV
7)
XVEHI[MRH
MRXIRWMX]
& 8LI TVSTSVXMSR SJ XLI EISPMER IRH QIQFIVW EVI
' 8LI VEXMS SJ GSEVWI SZIV JMRI EISPMER HYWX MW YWIH EW E
( 6IPEXMZI EFYRHERGI SJ XLI TPEROXSRMG JSVEQMRMJIV
2ISKPSFSUYEHVMRE TEGL]HIVQE W MR GSVI +IS& VIJPIGXW &IRKYIPEYT[IPPMRK MRXIRWMX] 0MXXPI IX
EP F
%O]VVIGSVHSJ[MRHWXVIRKXLERHEVMHMX]
'SRWMHIVMRK XLI MRXIVTVIXEXMSR SJ XLI XLVIIIRHQIQFIV QSHIP GLERKIW MR XLI VEXMSW
SJXLIIRHQIQFIVWVIJPIGXTEPISGPMQEXIZEVMEXMSRWMR7;%JVMGE8LITVSTSVXMSRSJXLI
EISPMER IRH QIQFIVW )1 MW MRXIVTVIXIH XS VITVIWIRX GSRXMRIRXEP EVMHMX] 8LI
EVMHMX] VIGSVH MRHMGEXIW VIPEXMZIP] EVMH GPMQEXI GSRHMXMSRW HYVMRK MRXIVKPEGMEPW ERH
VIPEXMZIP]LYQMHGSRHMXMSRWHYVMRKKPEGMEPW*MKYVI&8LIVEXMSSJXLIGSEVWISZIV
XLIJMRIEISPMERIRHQIQFIV)1)1)1VIJPIGXMRK XLI EISPMER KVEMR WM^I MW
MRXIVTVIXIH EW E QIEWYVI SJ XLI MRXIRWMX] SJ XLI WSYXLIEWXIVR XVEHI [MRHW XLEX MW XLI
XVERWTSVX EKIRX SJ XLI EISPMER HYWX 8LI VIGSVH MRHMGEXIW XLEX XLI XVEHI [MRHW [IVI
MRXIRWMJMIHHYVMRKKPEGMEPWGSQTEVIHXSMRXIVKPEGMEPW*MKYVI'
4EVXVMHKI IX EP VITSVXIH ER EWXVSRSQMGEP HVMZMRK QIGLERMWQ JSV 7SYXL %JVMGER
GPMQEXI 8LI] GSRWXVYGXIH E O]V WSYXLIVR%JVMGER VEMRJEPP VIGSVH SR XLI FEWMW SJ
XI\XYVEP ERH GSQTSWMXMSREP GLERKIW SJ GVEXIVPEOI WIHMQIRXW MR RSVXLIVR 7SYXL %JVMGE
8LMW VEMRJEPP VIGSVH TVIHSQMREXIH F] XLI TVIGIWWMSREP G]GPMGMX] GSVVIPEXIW [IPP [MXL
‘7.ERYEV]MRWSPEXMSRGLERKIWERHVIJPIGXWLYQMHQSRWSSRWHYVMRKXLITIVMSHW[MXL
QE\MQYQ EYWXVEP WYQQIV MRWSPEXMSR -R XLI [IWXIVR TEVX SJ 7SYXL %JVMGE LS[IZIV
GPMQEXI ZEVMEFMPMX] MW VIKYPEXIH F] XLI WLMJXW SJ XLI GPMQEXI FIPXW GSRRIGXIH XS XLI
QSZIQIRXW SJ XLI TSPEV JVSRX :ER >MRHIVIR &EOOIV 8]WSR (YVMRK
KPEGMEPTIVMSHWXLITSPEVJVSRXQSZIHIUYEXSV[EVHVIWYPXMRKMRERSVXL[EVHWLMJXSJXLI
[MRXIVVEMRJEPP FIPX GEYWMRK MRGVIEWIH TVIGMTMXEXMSR MR WSYXL[IWXIVR %JVMGE 7LM IX EP
8LIRSVXL[EVHHMWTPEGIQIRXSJXLITSPEVJVSRXMWGSYTPIH[MXLERMRGVIEWIMRXLI
QIVMHMSREP TVIWWYVI KVEHMIRXW VIWYPXMRK MR MRXIRWMJMIH 7) XVEHI [MRHW 8LI ETTEVIRX
EW]RGLVSR] SJ 0EXI 5YEXIVREV] EVMHMX] GLERKIW MR XLI [IWXIVR ERH IEWXIVR TEVX SJ
WSYXLIVR %JVMGE GER FI I\TPEMRIH F] VIKMSREP ZEVMEXMSRW MR XLI EVMHMX] JSVGMRK
QIGLERMWQW TVIGMTMXEXMSR MR XLI [IWXIVR TEVX MW GSRXVSPPIH F] XLI [MRXIV VEMR VIKMQI
EWWSGMEXIH[MXLXLI[IWXIVPMIW[LIVIEWTVIGMTMXEXMSRMRXLIIEWXIVRTEVXMWGSRXVSPPIHF]
XLIWYQQIVQSRWSSRW]WXIQ4EVXVMHKIIXEP3YVTVS\]VIGSVHWJSVGSRXMRIRXEP
EVMHMX] ERH XVEHI[MRH WXVIRKXL MRHIIH WLS[ XLEX KPEGMEP TIVMSHW EVI GLEVEGXIVMWIH F]
MRGVIEWIH [MRH WXVIRKXLW ERH HIGVIEWIH EVMHMX] 3-7 MR TEVXMGYPEV WLS[W E ZIV] LMKL
TVSTSVXMSR SJ )1 ;LIXLIV XLMW MW GEYWIH F] YRYWYEP [MRH] GSRHMXMSRW LEW XS FI
TVSZIRF]VIGSVHWJVSQSXLIVGSVIW
8LI TEPIS[MRH WXVIRKXL VIGSVH SJ GSVI 1( *MKYVI ' WLS[W E WMQMPEV
ZEVMEFMPMX] GSQTEVIH XS XLI VIGSVH SJ XLI GSPH[EXIV JSVEQMRMJIV 2ISKPSFSUYEHVMRE
TEGL]HIVQE W MR GSVI +IS& JVSQ XLI IEWXIVR 'ETI &EWMR 0MXXPI IX EP E
*MKYVIWERH(8LIVIPEXMZIEFYRHERGISJXLMWWTIGMIWMWGSRWMHIVIHETVS\]JSV
XVEHI[MRH MRHYGIH YT[IPPMRK 0MXXPI IX EP E 0MXXPI IX EP F 9JOIW IX EP
%PXLSYKLXLIGSVVIPEXMSRFIX[IIRXLIX[SLMKLJVIUYIRG]VIGSVHWMWRSXTIVJIGX
S[MRK XS MQTIVJIGXMSRW MR XLI EKI QSHIPW SJ XLI X[S GSVIW MX GSVVSFSVEXIW [MXL XLI
MRXIVTVIXEXMSRSJIRHQIQFIVW)1ERH)18LIHMJJIVIRGIWFIX[IIRXLIWIVIGSVHW
QE]EPWSEVMWIJVSQXLIJEGXXLEXTIEOWMRXLI2TEGL]HIVQEWGYVZIQE]FIMRJPYIRGIH
F] GLERKIW MR XLI UYEPMX] SJ XLI YT[IPPIH [EXIVW RSX VIPEXIH XS XVEHI[MRH MRXIRWMX]
1EWPMRIXEP
%RSXLIV TSWWMFPI XVERWTSVX QIGLERMWQ JSV XLI EISPMER HYWX HITSWMXIH ;EPZMW 6MHKI MW
XLI WSGEPPIH FIVK [MRHW &IVK [MRHW EVI GEXEFEXMG [MRHW KIRIVEPP] FPS[MRK JVSQ XLI
2)WYTTP]MRKPEVKIEQSYRXWSJEISPMER HYWX MRXS XLI 7) %XPERXMG 3GIER 7LERRSR 'LETXIV
%RHIVWSR8LITSWWMFPIMRXIVTPE]FIX[IIRFIVK[MRHWERHXVEHI[MRHWGERRSX
FI HMWGIVRIH JVSQ SYV KVEMRWM^I VIGSVH ,S[IZIV FIVK [MRHW EVI PSGEP TLIRSQIRE
ERHEVIMRXIVQMXXIRXSRERERRYEPXMQIWGEPI-JXLI]SGGYVXLI]FPS[JSVEJI[[IIOW
SRP] [LIVIEW XLI 7) XVEHIW EVI E ]IEVVSYRH JIEXYVI 8LIVIJSVI [I EWWYQI XLEX XLI
EISPMER HYWX HITSWMXIH SR ;EPZMW 6MHKI LEW FIIR WYTTPMIH F] XLI 7) XVEHI [MRHW
4SWWMFPI GLERKIW MR XVEHI [MRH ^SREPMX] GER RSX FI HIVMZIH JVSQ SYV TVS\] VIGSVHW
IMXLIV'LERKIWMRXLI^SREPMX]SJXLI7)XVEHI[MRHWGSYPHTSWWMFP]VIWYPXMRGLERKIWMR
[MRH WXVIWW HVMZMRK XLI &IRKYIPE YT[IPPMRK W]WXIQ EW [IPP EW MR GLERKIW MR XLI
GSQTSWMXMSR SJ XLI [MRHFPS[R QEXIVMEP XVERWTSVXIH XS XLI ;EPZMW 6MHKI 8LYW
TVSZIRERGIWXYHMIWSJXLIEISPMERWIHMQIRXWSR;EPZMW6MHKIEVIRIIHIHXSVIGSRWXVYGX
GLERKIWMRXLI^SREPMX]SJXLI7)XVEHI[MRHWERHTSWWMFPIGSRXVMFYXMSRWSJEISPMERHYWX
WYTTPMIHF]XLIFIVK[MRHW
'SRGPYWMSRW
• 8LVII IRH QIQFIVW EVI VIGSKRMWIH MR XLI KVEMRWM^I HMWXVMFYXMSRW SJ GSVI
1( JVSQ ;EPZMW 6MHKI YWMRK ER IRHQIQFIV QSHIPPMRK EPKSVMXLQ 8LI
X[S GSEVWIWX IRH QIQFIVW EVI MRXIVTVIXIH EW DGSEVWI
ERH DJMRI
EISPMER HYWX XLI
XLMVH IRH QIQFIV MW MRXIVTVIXIH EW LIQMTIPEKMG QYH HITSWMXIH JVSQ RITLIPSMH
PE]IVW
• :EVMEXMSRWMRXLITVSTSVXMSRSJXLIEISPMERIRHQIQFIVWVIJPIGXZEVMEXMSRWMREVMHMX]
MR WSYXL[IWXIVR %JVMGE 8LI VEXMS SJ XLI X[S EISPMER IRH QIQFIVW VIJPIGXW XLI
EISPMER KVEMR WM^I 'LERKIW MR XLMW VEXMS EVI MRXIVTVIXIH XS VIJPIGX GLERKIW MR XLI
MRXIRWMX]SJXLI7)XVEHI[MRH
• 8LIEVMHMX]VIGSVHWLS[WVIPEXMZIP]EVMHGPMQEXIGSRHMXMSRWHYVMRKMRXIVKPEGMEPWXEKIW
ERH VIPEXMZIP] LYQMH GPMQEXI GSRHMXMSRW HYVMRK KPEGMEP WXEKIW 8LI ETTEVIRX
EW]RGLVSR] SJ 0EXI 5YEXIVREV] EVMHMX] GLERKIW MR XLI [IWXIVR ERH IEWXIVR TEVX SJ
WSYXLIVR %JVMGE GER FI I\TPEMRIH F] VIKMSREP ZEVMEXMSRW MR XLI EVMHMX] JSVGMRK
QIGLERMWQW TVIGMTMXEXMSR MR XLI [IWXIVR TEVX MW GSRXVSPPIH F] XLI [MRXIV VEMR
VIKMQI EWWSGMEXIH [MXL XLI [IWXIVPMIW [LIVIEW TVIGMTMXEXMSR MR XLI IEWXIVR TEVX MW
GSRXVSPPIHF]XLIWYQQIVQSRWSSRW]WXIQ4EVXVMHKIIXEP
• 8LI[MRHWXVIRKXLVIGSVHWLS[WMRXIRWMJMIHXVEHI[MRHWHYVMRKKPEGMEPWGSQTEVIHXS
MRXIVKPEGMEPW ERH WLS[W E WMQMPEV ZEVMEFMPMX] GSQTEVIH XS XLI YT[IPPMRKMRXIRWMX]
VIGSVHSJ0MXXPIIXEPF
%GORS[PIHKIQIRXW
;I XLERO XLI GVI[ ERH WGMIRXMWXW EFSEVH 23 1EVMSR (YJVIWRI JSV XLIMV LIPT [MXL
GSVMRKERHWEQTPMRKSTIVEXMSRWHYVMRK-1%+)7--;IEPWSXLERO16IMXL9XVIGLX
9RMZIVWMX] JSV EREP]XMGEP WYTTSVX ERH 1 7IKP ERH & 1I]IV7GLEGO 9RMZIVWMXÇX
&VIQIRJSVGEVV]MRKSYXXLIS\]KIRMWSXSTIQIEWYVIQIRXW.'SQTXSR.+MVEYHIEY
ERH ER ERSR]QSYW VIZMI[IV EVI XLEROIH JSV XLIMV LIPTJYP WYKKIWXMSRW XS MQTVSZI XLI
QERYWGVMTX8LMW[SVO[EWJMRERGIHF]XLI27+2-3>&VIQIRGSSTIVEXMSR8LMWMW
2IXLIVPERHW 6IWIEVGL 7GLSSP SJ 7IHMQIRXEV] +ISPSK] 27+ TYFPMGEXMSR RYQFIV