Measuring the impact of out-of-town retail development on town centre retail
property in England and Wales
Astbury, G., & Thurstain-Goodwin, M.
Geofutures Ltd, Circus Mews House, Circus Mews, Bath, BA1 2PW, UK.
01225 475866
[email protected]
June 2014
Abstract: This study is a quantitative investigation into the retail markets of England and Wales between 2005 and
2010. We examine the performance of retail over space and time with particular reference to town centre activity and
the impact of large off-centre retail, over a period of economic recession. We also estimate the relative income
generated for Local Authorities by town-centre or off-centre location, to propound market significance by geography.
Despite a widespread discussion of the impact of de-centralised planning over more than 30 years there have been no
detailed studies quantifying this impact; the results aim to address a gap in current empirical evidence at the national
extent. We use Valuation Office Agency (VOA) business rates as a proxy performance measure and geo-statistically
defined town centre boundaries to create a nationally and statistically consistent methodology. The variation of business
'rateable values' is in part a facet of economic performance, and spatial analysis using Geographic Information Systems
(GIS) allowed us to illustrate those areas over and under-performing the national economic market over the same
period. New off-centre large retail developments were identified over the same time frame, to identify any correlations
between new developments and the resilience of proximate town centres. The study highlighted multi-scale forces and
patterns of impact and found a relationship between the proximity of new off-cenre large retail developments and retail
floor space value change over time in town centres.
Keywords: Town centre, retail, superstore, retail park, rateable values, GIS.
1. Introduction: Boosting localised planning, high-street performance and economic growth are key contemporary
priorities for government and retail activity forms a key facet of this performance. This study attempts to quantify the
impact of large out-of-town retail developments on retail activity in town centres through quantitative investigation, and
contextualise the economic scale and importance of these centres, between the recent recession period of 2005-2010.
The global economic crisis has markedly disturbed the health of our town centre and retail economies; this major
macro-economic impact has disparately impacted retailers of different scales and offers.
The current post-recession economy has prompted a re-focus on 'high street decline' to examine the drivers for failure
and success, as the UK moves into an era of re-localised planning and 'place-shaping'. A recent policy change (the
'business rates retention scheme') allows Local Authorities to keep the rates collected within their borders, giving them a
greater fiscal-incentive to what is built within their borders.
Quantifiable evidence bases are paramount for any effective policy formulation and decision-making. Whilst town
centre economies have been the focus of England and Wales national planning policy and spatial planning practice for
up to 2 decades, many key government reviews have highlighted the lack of empirical evidence to quantify relative
town centre performance or the impact of out-of-town retail at the national scale. Dimensions of this evidence include
good geographic accuracy or scale of aggregation to examine spatial patterns and trends, at a national study extent and
with time-series analysis to explore changes over time. The Department of Business, Innovation and Skills (BIS) has
noted ‘the data available to quantify economic performance/health of the high street are pertinent to town centre level
(or above) but rarely below – even in local studies. In the case of the latter, it is rare to find historical performance
comparisons’ 1.
This study uses nationally complete address-level data from the Valuation Office Agency (VOA) of England and Wales
capturing the changing non-domestic or business rateable values for each business by type. We utilise this data as a
proxy measure for economic performance. As business rates change partly in response to local economic market
conditions they can reflect the relative size and scale of retail economies and in particular the performance of areas over
time, using a retail floor space value percentage change measure offset by inflation to quantify impact. We also use geostatistically defined town centre boundaries for the spatial aggregation of business data to provide a nationally
consistent and quantitatively accurate town centre definition. Spatial analysis and GIS technologies help us to measure
relative impact through spatial aggregation and proximity measurements and regional and local trends are visualised
and discussed.
2.
The 'future of the high street' debate:
2.1 An historic issue
Our town centres have been under examination for several decades, marked by several strategic milestone government
reviews to assess the 'future of the high street', amongst a series of ongoing interim reports from government, industry
and academia (Bennison & Davies, 1980; National Economic Development Office Distributive Trades Economic
Committee 1988; Department of the Environment, 1992; Department of the Environment Urban and Economic
Development Group, 1994; Department of the Environment Transport and the Regions, 1998; Urban Task Force, 1998;
Portas, 2011; Barclay, 2012). During this time we have recognised the importance of our town centres for economic and
civic life, and attempted to balance market economic forces, development planning and the protection and investment in
these central places. A key facet of town centre vitality and function lies in retail, and one of the major trends over the
1
Department for Business Innovation and Skills (2011). Understanding High Street Performance, a report prepared by
GENECON LLP and Partners, iv.
last 30 years has been the decentralisation of retail development to out-of-town locations. The first off-centre grocery
supermarket development in West Bridgeford, Nottingham in 1964 marked the start of a new era of decentralised
development and by 1987 there were 39 national proposals at over 50,000 sq ft (National Economic Development
Office, 1988). Despite more strategic policy attempts to curb decentralisation there has been a consistent increase in
large off-centre retail development with new retail and leisure park schemes rising 34% between 2001 and 2012 (Trevor
Wood Associates, 2012) and supermarkets growing in the UK in number by 35% between 2001 and 2011 (Department
of Business Innovation and Skills, 2011). An awareness of the potential impact on town centre retail economies has
throughout this time been tacitly recognised, yet an ongoing reference to the lack of empirical evidence has been cited.
In 1992 the Department for the Environment carried out an extensive literature review to assess the impact of
development at that time. Of their vast synthesis of research they reflected on the approaches taken to assess impact
from elaborate spatial modelling of the 1960s to the detailed individual impact studies of the 1970s to the recognition of
a lack of any detailed evidence in large-food impact throughout the 1980s. Since the 1994 government review 'Vital and
Viable Town Centres' (Department of the Environment Urban and Economic Development Group, 1994), the focus on
town centres has shifted paradigm 'towards a strong urban renaissance' and retail impact still remains relatively unquantified. Of the small amount of quantitative studies that exist, the key assessment of the early 1990s by the National
Retail Planning Forum used employment levels as a proxy impact measure in the catchment areas of 93 new
superstores, concluding an overall negative effect and net loss of employment within 15km (National Retail Planning
Forum, 1998). A 1998 government investigation into large food store impact noted that 20% of Local Authorities had
not carried out a large retail impact assessment (Department of the Environment Transport and the Regions, 1998), and
the lack of empirical evidence meant a lack of conclusive evidence. A response and recent update to this study from the
University of Southampton based on survey data of 8 centres, noted the positive local trader attitudes to new edge-ofcentre developments and the perceived effect on local residents, revealing a highly polarised debate based on poorly
digested 'factoids' of negative impact (Wrigley et al, 2010).
2.2 How policy has guided the way
The first significant introduction to policy protecting town centre locations from out-of-town development appeared in
the English 1996 planning policy guidance 6, 'town centre first' policy (Office of the Deputy Prime Minister, 1996),
together with a similar Welsh PPG6 framework (Welsh Government, 1996). This policy formed an explicit recognition
of an impact from off-centre competition at the large scale, and favoured centralised locations for development through
the 'sequential test', partly as a response to curb and control new developments. It was seen by some as a development
control tool preventing off-centre development rather than positively planning for town centres (Cheshire et al, 2011),
throughout which time out-of-town development continued to grow. A lag time in development meant it took more than
10 years up to 2006 to re-balance retail floor space in town centres to mid-1980s levels (British Council of Shopping
Centres, 2006). The policy gave rise to unexpected consequences, particularly the re-formatting of major grocery
multiples to local high-street convenience stores, which conversely may have benefited central places (Bennison et al,
2010). The 2011 UK Government Portas Review into the future of the high-street is the most recent examination into
apparent town centre decline focusing on the role of the retail sector, and renewing the debate (Portas, 2011).
2.3 The wider context
The time frame of this study spans the years 2005 to 2010, during which time the national economy has experienced the
shock of economic crisis, fragility in customer confidence, and deteriorating household incomes and the effects of a
stagnating post-recession economy. Retail growth has mirrored national economics with retail growth at 1.2% in 2012
(Verdict Research, 2012) and the retail sales index of sales in volume and value terms, levelled out since 2008.
Consumer purchasing power has also decreased, with relative disposable income falling to 2013 (Office for National
Statistics) and a more competitive retail market emerging. The impact has been felt most strongly by, and revealed those
centres with marginal economic performance showing patterns of success, decline and resilience at a variety of scales
and locations (Wrigley & Dolega, 2011).
Town centre activity is recognised as a multi-dimensional process including other economic, social and cultural
adaptive processes. Whilst this study has a specific retail focus, generalising national-level conclusions, it is set within a
wider set of forces comprising a complete town centre ecosystem with multi-scale effects. We may consider the direct
comparison of the in and out-of-town retail environments as a difficult position, if we view the two offers as
significantly polarised experiences. Whilst both locations provide the opportunity for shopping, the locations differ in
urban vitality, central spaces of social gathering and exchange, diversity of leisure and other services, and in transport
and accessibility to and within these locations. They have differing inherent strengths to draw and detract demographic
groups to a certain location, even with retail as the primary purpose.
2.4 The importance for Local Authorities
Local Authorities have the potential to generate revenue through retail business rates but do not, at present, reap the
rewards through the nationally distributed 'formula grant' system. The new 'business rate retention scheme' aims to
redress this lack of local fiscal incentive by allowing the retention of income generated within administrative
boundaries, creating a vested interest for local planning authorities (Department of Communities and Local
Government, 2012). Rateable values or the level of non-domestic rates change to reflect local market conditions, with
higher value locations demanding higher taxation. While commercial property values have declined across the UK
during the recession due to national-scale forces, decisions made by planning authorities can have powerful localised
impact. It is important for authorities to balance the gains of out-of-town development with town centre impact on nondomestic rates to maximise returns.
3.
Methodology:
3.1 Datasets
Two key datasets have been used for the analysis. Firstly the Valuation Office Agency (VOA) summary valuations for
2005 and 2010. These were taken as a snapshot of a dynamic database at May 2012. The datasets contain all
hereditaments across England and Wales of non-domestic properties for which business rates are collected. A
hereditament broadly comprises the area of a building in which a business operates. Information also includes the
rateable value or the 'annual rent the property could be let out for on the open market on a particular date, on full
repairing and insuring terms'2. Retail types are also recorded by broad VOA classifications, and for most retail types a
floor space area is available, allowing us to calculate a normalised pound per metre square measurement for floor space
value.
3.2 Measuring performance
Rateable values change over space and time. They are dependent upon property level factors but also the performance
of surrounding areas. In the context of retail for example, if a high-street suffers large vacancy rates, rateable values can
be expected to fall and vice-versa and in this way the data provides a level of dynamism through appeals and revaluations reflecting local market economic conditions. Business performance datasets at the national extent,
representing a good geographic accuracy which are reliable, accurate and complete with turnover or other performance
figures are not available at the current time. We are therefore using rateable values as a measure of income for Local
Authorities, and as a proxy for business performance.
3.3 Town centre area definition
We have used town centre boundaries originally developed for the Department for Communities and Local Government
(DCLG) by Geofutures Ltd and the Centre for Advanced Spatial Analysis (CASA) at University College London (UCL)
between 1999 and 2004, (DCLG, 2006). These polygonal areas were defined using a nationally consistent modelling
approach accounting for the type, intensity, and diversity of economic activities and intensity of property development.
Density surfaces were derived from these statistics and local knowledge provided the 'best-fit' threshold to match
perceptions of town centre boundaries (Unwin & Thurstain-Goodwin, 2000). Their level of geographic accuracy has
been described as 'loose-fit', reflecting the unit-postcode level input data, (Batty, M. et al 2002). We have re-run a
comparative model for 2012 conditions for use in this study. Out-of-town retail centres such as large shopping centres
have been removed from both datasets to best reflect our central places. It should be noted that the resultant town
centres do not necessarily accord to town centres as designated or recognised in planning policy, and smaller centres
below 2 hectares in area are not included; as part of the original modelling approach a series of ‘retail cores’ were also
generated and this modelling defined 2 hectares as the cut-off point for centres of retail activity rather than the diverse
mix of activities found in town centres. These town centre boundaries provide an alternative functional economic
market area and geographic unit for statistical aggregation, in contrast to administrative and demographicallyengineered areas more often used in this type of retail statistic representation. They also provide a consistent method of
comparing town centres areas nationally.
3.4 Segmentation and aggregation of data
Summary valuation data has been queried and aggregated into broad retail types using 'special category' (SCAT) codes
created by the VOA which are also matched to UK 'Planning Use Classes ' by the VOA (fig. 1). Planning Use Classes
are used in the UK Town and Country Planning Order (1987) to categorise land and buildings, used by planners and
local authorities. The records were geo-coded using database matching to the Office for National Statistics Postcode
Directory (ONSPD), which includes all historic unit postcode centroids in the UK with their geographic coordinates.
Unit postcodes are the most precise codes and smallest areas covering on average 15 adjoining addresses. The points
were spatially aggregated into town centre boundaries using desktop GIS from ESRI.
2
Valuation Office Agency (2013). Business rates, an introduction. London: VOA, 2.
Fig. 1 Classification of VOA retail data by ‘special category' code
Type
VOA special category
VOA special category
Large retail
Departmental and walk round stores (large) 086
A1 shops
Hypermarkets/superstores (over 2500m2)
139
A1 shops
2
Large food stores (750 – 2500m )
152
A1 shops
2
154
A1 shops
Large shops (over 1850m )
155
A1 shops
Retail warehouses and premises
235
A1 shops
Auction rooms
019
A1 shops
Factory shops
097
A1 shops
Farm shops
098
A1 shops
Food stores
106
A1 shops
Garden centres
114
A1 shops
Motorway service area let outs
193
A1 shops
Pharmacies
210
A1 shops
Sales kiosks
243
A1 shops
Shops
249
A1 shops
Showrooms
251
A1 shops
Station let outs
266
A1 shops
Stores
268
A1 shops
Hairdressing/beauty salons
417
A1 shops
Post offices
429
A1 shops
Salons/clinics within/part of specialist
507
A1 shops
Shops within/part of specialist property
508
A1 shops
Stores within/part of specialist property
510
A1 shops
Betting offices
024
A2 financial and professional
Banks/insurance/building society offices &
021
A2 financial and professional
Drive-in restaurants
091
A3 restaurants and cafes
Drive-thru restaurants
092
A3 restaurants and cafes
Food courts
104
A3 restaurants and cafes
Restaurants
234
A3 restaurants and cafes
Cafes
409
A3 restaurants and cafes
Cafes/restaurants within/part of specialist
500
A3 restaurants and cafes
Public houses/pub restaurants (national
226
A4 drinking establishments
Public houses/pub restaurants (inc
227
A4 drinking establishments
Takeaway food outlet (predominantly off
442
A4 drinking establishments
Large shops (750 – 1850m )
2
Other A1
shops
Finance
Eating and
drinking
UK planning use class
Cars and
markets
Car auction buildings/sites
038
Sui generis
(unique/miscellaneous)
Car showrooms
042
Sui generis
Car supermarkets
044
Sui generis
Car/caravan sales/display/hiring sites
046
Sui generis
Markets (other than livestock)
165
Sui generis
3.5 Offsetting inflation
We would expect economic rates to rise naturally with inflation over time, therefore any change over time needs to be
analysed in the context of under or out-performing the overall economy. To account for this expected uplift we have
offset the change in rateable values using the Retail Price Index (RPI) for UK annual inflation rates. The offset rates are
a percentage point difference between the rateable value percentage change and the RPI rates shown in table 2 below.
There are several options for inflation measurements; the RPI is used by government to help define rateable values in
part, by way of a 'multiplier' for bill calculations, hence a relevant choice of measure.
Fig. 2 Calculated inflation rates, using the annual UK Retail Price Index (RPI)
Time period
RPI rate RPI rate
% change
2005
192.0
-
2010
223.6
-
2005 - 2010
-
16.5%
3.6 Measuring out-of-town retail impact
New large retail developments were identified between the years 2005 and 2010 using the summary valuation datasets,
where new hereditaments existed between the datasets, outside of town centre boundaries. We have sense-checked and
analysed the results for any brand new developments in this time frame, using web searches and commercial and
industrial floorspace data from the VOA at the Middle Super Output Area (MSOA) level (with an average resident
population size of 7,500). The retail types identified include;
- Hypermarkets/superstores (on average 6,000m2 floor space)
- Large food stores (on average 1370m2 floor space)
- New retail park developments greater than 5 units
We aggregated the performance of those town centres that existed in both 2004 and 2012 whose centres were within
5km and 2km of a new development opened between 2005 and 2010. This again was measured using the average £ per
m2 retail floor space value percentage change, then offset by the Retail Price Index (RPI) inflation during this time. We
assume a variation in the diversity and mix of offer in each retail park. There exists no defined benchmark measurement
in literature or policy for the distance at which people are prepared to travel to a retail park; this would vary widely
considering the accessibility of each location. 5km and 2km were chosen as sensible travel times for comparison.
Central London was also omitted from the analysis for comparison; the city exhibits a differing complex urban structure
to other national areas with a smaller proximity between town centres.
3.7 Scale, precision and aggregation
This study acknowledges and attempts to address the polarised nature of current empirical evidence bases, from the
ecological fallacy of national and regional generalisations, to the atomistic fallacy of selective location-specific case
studies. The unit-postcode spatial precision of the business locations shows detailed patterns and spatial variation,
suitable for aggregation into the polygonal town centre areas which were also modelled based on unit postcode data.
Consistent modelling across the national extent for the input datasets concurrently allows national global statistics and
assessments to be derived.
3.8 Error margins
Whilst the VOA rating lists and summary valuations provide us with a rich dataset for analysis, its primary purpose is
not one of data analysis and as a result there are some limitations to its use. Of note these include;
•
The loose consistency of retail type categorisation made by different VOA valuation offices responsible for
regional assessments. This error should be small after we have aggregated up into more general groupings.
•
Similarly, rateable values themselves are set in respect to an overall market 'tone'. Our results indicate that this
overall market tone has likely been under and over-valued by VOA regions comparatively.
•
2005 and 2010 rateable values, whilst assessed on these dates, are based on 2003 and 2008
market conditions respectively.
•
Some types of retail do not have floor space information available in the summary valuation dataset. This
analysis omits food courts, non-livestock markets and public houses; these are not included in any floor space estimates
we have calculated.
•
Approximately 0.3% of records cannot be geocoded to the unit postcode level across all of the datasets and
have been omitted from spatial analysis.
•
Town centre boundaries themselves have changed over time, and we have used 2004 and 2012 boundaries for
2005 and 2010 VOA data respectively as they were not modelled for the years 2005-2011 inclusive.
•
There exists a lag period in updating VOA records with new postcode information with change that may occur
over time. These changes are small in number, and historic postcodes will generally appear in the same general
neighbourhood area.
•
There exists a lag period in updating VOA records with information from revaluations by appeal of a property
for a reassessment.
•
There exists a lag-effect of new out-of-town developments across the entire 5 year period; all ‘new’
developments have been aggregated in this analysis, with the effect of those opened closer to 2010 perhaps not yet
affecting and being reflected by town centre performance.
4.
Findings:
4.1 Global trends
The 'large retail’ type (as defined in fig. 1) makes up about 32-36% of hereditaments (individual businesses) nationally,
and other smaller A1 shops about 56 & 52% in 2005 and 2010 respectively. Large developments clearly have a
considerable share of the retail economy, yet these figures suggest the similarly important sizeable economies provided
by town centres. The business rates value generated for Local Authorities follows the same pattern, with 52.1% of
revenue coming from smaller A1 shops as opposed to 35.5% of 'large retail' outlets in 2010. Financial, food and drink
and other businesses make up less than 13% of revenue in 2010, with a much smaller representation of physical retail
'outlets'. .
The economic value of retail floor space in 2005 and 2010 is greater in town centres as expected, as these central areas
typically cost more per square metre on average. Large off-centre retail demands a similar average price per square
metre, yet in contrast the total rateable value income generated is broadly half of all town centre activity. In addition,
this ‘large retail’ subset of all off-centre retail, accounts for just over half of all retail in the hinterlands (fig. 3). These
levels are significant when considering the economic scale of revenues generated in context; whilst large off-centre
retail developments provide significant opportunities for Local Authority revenue, all other retail business space makes
up a larger majority of retail business activity from which to draw income.
Fig. 3 England and Wales retail rateable values, rounded to the nearest million from the summary valuation samples
Location
Year
Retail type
Average £/m2 floor
space value
Total rateable value
(billions)
Town centre
2005
All
£145
£7.588
Town centre
2010
All
£167
£9.315
Out of town
2005
All
£87
£6.602
Out of town
2010
All
£106
£8.336
Out of town
2005
Large retail
£147
£3.244
Out of town
2010
Large retail
£182
£4.511
4.2 Localised patterns
The localised effect of retail performance and vitality was visible throughout the changing rateable values at the
hereditament level throughout the country, indicating street-level processes. We might expect the positive and negative
feedback of businesses with both high and low turnover, footfall and popularity through cumulative causation at the
street or neighbourhood level. Fig. 4 shows the example of streets in improvement and decline around Oxford Street,
Central London between 2005 and 2010, where the main drag of Oxford Street has suffered, yet some proximate streets
have flourished. The patterns evident gave us a certain confidence in the data to aggregate up to different scales and for
further modelling and generalisation.
Nationally we can observe a fragmented picture of vitality and decline, with several sub-regional hotspots of note, (fig.
5). A large part of south west England, the north west England coast, and north east England appear to be healthyperforming retail areas when we look at retail floor space £ per m2 % change. Large areas of Wales, Yorkshire and also
parts of south eastern England appear to be in decline, although there exists the effect of a ‘market tone’ which is set by
each of the 8 VOA national regions where valuation is coordinated and carried out. In figure 5 we can observe a large
under-performing area spanning between South Yorkshire to Oxford which is the likely effect (in part) of the undervaluation of property rates in 2010 by this VOA region also noted by industry, which will to some extents skew these
results.
Performance of the retail economy can be influenced by and considered within the context of its immediate hinterland
or neighbourhood, the functional economic market area in which it operates, or across an entire national region. These
multi-scale effects are suggested in many of the patterns observed. The North West of England for example has a
fragmented performance across many proximate towns, and each specific town centre and hinterland location within
this region will have its own set of conditions, opportunities and challenges. Indeed figure 6 shows the same broad
national patterns are not shown at the town centre level. In the case of larger conurbations we can detect geographic
patterns across these urban and economic areas, for example London exhibits its own South-East divide, where the
effect of the ‘island economy’ is really focused in the central and western areas. Regional-level conditions can only
identify underlying drivers to a limited degree; planning and economic policy is astute to create assumptions and
guidance according to many scales.
Town centre performance over time is fairly normally distributed nationally, with a slight positive skew where strongly
performing town centres are performing particularly well, the strength of Greater London accounting for some of this
strength in performance. The size of the town centre (measured in this case by its area defined by the geo-statistical
town centre boundary, as a proxy for its economic scale), is also unrelated to performance over time. Whilst the
complex nuances of a functional market hierarchy do not necessarily strictly accord to the geographical distribution of
centres, a visual investigation (fig. 6) of the relationship between performance and nearest neighbour proximity of other
town centres also shows no obvious relationship.
Fig. 4 Local patterns of retail floor space £ per m2 change between 2005 and 2010 in Soho, London
Fig. 5 Broad patterns of national retail floor space value change between 2005 and 2010, interpolated by hereditament
postcode
Fig. 6 Town centre retail floor space value change between 2005 and 2010
4.3 Large retail impact
The general pattern of results suggest the average floor space value (£ per m2) percentage change is lower within town
centres close to new off-centre large retail developments than across all town centres nationally (fig. 7). These results
provide a unique set of global quantitative evidence for the impact of building new large retail developments in
proximity to existing centres. Whilst the data does not assume uniform forces occurring at each location, it does give an
overall estimate of impact in economic terms, suggesting a negative overall effect on existing centres. This relationship
is stronger when we omit Greater London from the national pattern (fig. 8), which is an interesting and relevant sub-set
of data; typically in British studies we may consider the urban form of London and its local centres to differ markedly
as a conurbation to the functional hierarchy of much of the rest of the country. We may suggest therefore that the
impacts of new large proximate retail are felt more by centres outside of the London metropolitan area.
The impact of the scale of any new development emerges when comparing hypermarkets/superstores against smaller
retail developments categorised as ‘large food stores’ in the above figures, where larger developments have a bigger
detrimental effect on a town. Retail parks appear to have a negative effect both in and outside of Greater London, more
detrimental than large food stores, yet not as significant as hypermarkets or superstores. The type of retail development
is an important consideration when we contextualise impact; whilst supermarkets offering food shopping alternatives
may have impact on central food and drink stores, hypermarket and larger retail park developments often offer a more
diverse range of goods and services in competition with a much wider range of town centre businesses. Figure 8 for
example highlights the largest impact from hypermarkets outside London.
Fig. 7 Town centre retail performance in proximity to new off-centre large retail developments
Fig. 8 Town centre retail performance in proximity to new off-centre large retail developments, outside Greater London
5.
Conclusion:
5.1 Research implications
The trend for off-centre retail developments is continuing, despite a period of recession and a longer-lasting set of
policy designed to discourage it. We appear to be in a dichotomy of a renewed government focus on town-centre and
high-street health whilst planning continues to be granted for large off-centre retail, which is tacitly recognised as
potentially damaging to the very same places. A key concern for this decision making is the lack of empirical evidence
at an extent to which we can confidently implement policy and guidelines and this study aims to begin to address that
gap. The use of VOA data and town centre boundaries has allowed us to explore the nature of the national retail
economy over space and time and whilst the data has exhibited some limitations, some interesting patterns have started
to emerge.
Local Authorities have a renewed vested interest for what is built within their borders with the new ‘business rates
retention scheme’ allowing the retention of any taxation generated within their borders. Measuring the relative revenues
of retail in context to town centre locations may be helpful to assess the value of both economies. Our results show that
large off-centre retail development is an important sizable economy when measured by rateable values, but not more
significant that town centre economies and other smaller off-centre retail.
Global statistics also suggest a detrimental effect of large retail developments if built within a 5km proximity to town
centres; the retail rateable value £ per m2 change over time is less than town centres generally in close proximity to new
developments of the same time. When considering the types of large retail as separate entities, the hypermarkets or
superstores (for example Tesco Extra or the larger ASDA Walmart stores) are the contemporary replication of the 1950s
town centre offer, serving multiple goods and services under one roof to the convenience-culture expectations of much
of our society. Whilst there have been past studies suggesting a beneficial relationship to town centres from increased
footfall of extremely proximate edge-of-centre developments, breathing life and employment in towns, it may be hard
to compete with the economies of scale on offer.
When considering the drivers of town centre retail performance, we must put the results into two main contexts,
essentially reflecting complexity; firstly the multi-scale and locally specific nature of impacts (what is a dominant
impact for one town centre may be less important for another) and secondly the existence of multi-faceted impacts and
the difficulty in isolating retail activity from other town centre forces of vitality. An interesting observation in the results
has been the difference between general area performance and town-centre level performance across the same areas,
which does not appear to accord to either the proximity of other centres, functional hierarchy or the scale of the centre,
suggesting a mix of local explanatory factors.
5.2 Limitations and further research
The limitations to this study can be summarised generally by a few points. Firstly the Summary Valuation data, whilst
providing a good opportunity for proxy measures of retail performance where no other sources are available do not
serve the primary purpose of data analysis, rather they are designed for the collection of business rates and in this way
exhibit aspects of error when modelled. The most notable of these include the loose synergy of data collection methods
across the VOA regions with regard to recording the type or category of business, and the level at which the market
'tone' is set to determine the rateable value of the area. Though this unquantifiable variation appears at the regional
level, we may consider inter-regional town centre level impacts to remain similar, with the majority of retail types
broadly consistent with planning use classes, and 'large retail'. Any results should consider the use of rateable values as
an economic indicator; whilst it is a useful proxy it has a subtly different angle to the analysis than turnover data, with
the presumption that changes in the value of floor space reflect changes in turnover. Additionally, the comprehensive
nature of property taxation data in England and Wales may be a relatively unique resource, potentially limiting the
duplication of this analysis in an international context.
Secondly, whilst the global statistics for large retail impact are a useful measure, they must consider the ecological
fallacy of these headline results where there exist multi-scale processes at the town centre level; within these results
there is some variation from town to town dependent upon local circumstances. Similarly, there is a variation in the
types of impact, as we have grouped all types of 'large retail' offer together, including grocery, 'big box' retail parks, and
hypermarkets.
Thirdly, capturing the effects of retail within a much broader sense of ‘activity’ and economics is a key challenge which
may lend itself well to a multi-variate quantitative approach. Suitably detailed datasets would need to be obtained which
is outside this scope of research, but would make an interesting extension to the work. This could encompass
accessibility, functional hierarchy, public realm, geo-demographics and purchasing power for example, utilising data
from this or similar modelling. Repeating the modelling again in the post-recession economy would be another
interesting extension to work to examine any effect of the shock wave of economic crisis and future trends.
Acknowlegdements:
This work was made possible through fellowship funding from the UK National Centre for Research Methods (NCRM)
and the Talisman research group at the University of Leeds and University College London (UCL). Thanks is given for
advice and support throughout the work.
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