Appendixes for Elizabeth A. Stanley and John P. Sawyer, “The Equifinality of War Termination: Multiple Paths to Ending
War,” Journal of Conflict Resolution, Vol. 53, no. 5 (October 2009).
APPENDIX 1: Interstate Wars Included in the Dataset
War
First Kashmir
First Kashmir
Palestine
Palestine
Palestine
Palestine
Palestine
Palestine
Korean
Korean
Korean
Korean
Korean
Russo-Hungarian
Russo-Hungarian
Sinai
Sinai
Sinai
Sinai
Sino-Indian
Sino-Indian
Vietnam
*
Country
Pakistan
India
Israel
Egypt
Iraq
Jordan
Lebanon
Syria
China
North Korea
South Korea
USA
USSR
Hungary
USSR
Israel
Egypt
France
UK
China
India
North
Vietnam
Begin
10/24/47
10/24/47
5/14/1948
5/14/1948
5/14/1948
5/14/1948
5/14/1948
5/14/1948
6/25/1950
6/25/1950
6/25/1950
6/25/1950
6/25/1950
10/23/1956
10/23/1956
10/29/1956
10/29/1956
10/31/1956
10/31/1956
10/20/1962
10/20/1962
2/7/1965
End
Outcome
12/31/1948
2
12/31/1948
2
1/7/1949
1
1/7/1949
3
10/31/1948
3
10/31/1948
3
10/31/1948
3
10/31/1948
3
7/27/1953
2
7/27/1953
2
7/27/1953
2
7/27/1953
2
7/27/1953
2
11/14/1956
3
11/14/1956
1
11/6/1956
1
11/6/1956
3
11/6/1956
1
11/6/1956
1
11/22/1962
1
11/22/1962
3
4/30/1975
1
Initiate
1
0
0
1
1
1
1
1
0
1
0
0
0
0
1
1
0
0
0
1
0
0 Primary
Our coding for stalemates includes the COW categories of “yielding” and “compromise.”
1
Belligerent
Status
Primary
Primary
Primary
Primary
Secondary
Secondary
Secondary
Secondary
Primary
Secondary
Secondary
Primary
Primary
Primary
Primary
Primary
Primary
Primary
Primary
Primary
Primary
Change from COW*
Date/initiation/outcome
Date/initiation/outcome
Date
Date
Date
Date
Date
Date
Date/outcome
Date/outcome
Date/outcome
Date/outcome
State/date/outcome
None
None
None
None
None
None
None
None
None
Vietnam
Vietnam
Second Kashmir
Second
Kashmir
Six-Day
Six-Day
Six-Day
Six-Day
Attrition
Attrition
Bangladesh
Bangladesh
Yom Kippur
Yom Kippur
Yom Kippur
South
Vietnam
USA
India
2/7/1965
2/7/1965
8/5/1965
4/30/1975
1/27/1973
9/22/1965
3
3
2
Secondary
until
1/28/1973,
0 then Primary
1 Primary
0 Primary
Pakistan
Egypt
Israel
Jordan
Syria
Egypt
Israel
India
Pakistan
Egypt
Israel
Syria
8/5/1965
6/5/1967
6/5/1967
6/5/1967
6/5/1967
3/8/1969
3/8/1969
12/3/1971
12/3/1971
10/6/1973
10/6/1973
10/6/1973
9/22/1965
6/10/1967
6/10/1967
6/10/1967
6/10/1967
8/7/1970
8/7/1970
12/17/1971
12/17/1971
10/24/1973
10/24/1973
10/24/1973
2
3
1
3
3
2
2
1
3
3
1
3
1
0
1
0
0
1
0
1
0
1
0
0
Cyprus
Cyprus
Cyprus
Viet-Cambodian
Viet-Cambodian
Ogaden
Ogaden
Ogaden
Uganda-Tanzanian
Uganda-Tanzanian
Cyprus
Greece
Turkey
Cambodia
Vietnam
Cuba
Ethiopia
Somalia
Libya
Tanzania
7/15/1974
7/15/1974
7/20/1974
5/1/1975
5/1/1975
10/23/1977
8/1/1977
8/1/1977
3/8/1979
10/30/1978
8/16/1974
8/16/1974
8/16/1974
1/7/1979
1/7/1979
3/14/1978
3/14/1978
3/14/1978
4/8/1979
4/12/1979
3
3
1
3
1
1
1
3
3
1
0
1
0
0
1
0
0
1
0
0
2
Primary
Primary
Primary
Secondary
Secondary
Primary
Primary
Primary
Primary
Primary
Primary
Secondary
Primary until
7/18/1974,
then
Secondary to
Greece
Primary
Primary
Primary
Primary
Secondary
Primary
Primary
Secondary
Primary
None
None
Date/outcome/initiation
Date/outcome/initiation
None
None
None
None
Date/outcome
Date/outcome
None
None
None
None
None
Date
State/date/initiation
Date/initiation
None
None
Date
None
None
Date
None
Uganda-Tanzanian
Sino-Vietnam
Sino-Vietnam
Iran-Iraq
Iran-Iraq
Falklands
Falklands
Lebanon
Lebanon
Lebanon
Sino-Vietnam II
Sino-Vietnam II
Gulf War I
Uganda
China
Vietnam
Iran
Iraq
Argentina
UK
Israel
Lebanon
Syria
China
Vietnam
Iraq
Gulf War I
Gulf War I
Gulf War I
Gulf War I
Karabakh
Karabakh
Karabakh
Karabakh
Indo-Pakistan
Indo-Pakistan
Eritrea-Ethiopian
Eritrea-Ethiopian
Afghanistan
Afghanistan
Afghanistan
Gulf War II
Gulf War II
Gulf War II
Kuwait
Saudi Arabia
UK
USA
Armenia
Azerbaijan
Karabakh
USSR/FIS
India
Pakistan
Eritrea
Ethiopia
Afghanistan
UK
USA
Iraq
UK
USA
10/30/1978
2/17/1979
2/17/1979
9/22/1980
9/22/1980
3/25/1982
3/25/1982
6/4/1982
6/4/1982
6/4/1982
10/15/1986
10/15/1986
8/2/1990
4/12/1979
3/10/1979
3/10/1979
8/20/1988
8/20/1988
6/20/1982
6/20/1982
9/26/1982
9/26/1982
9/26/1982
2/6/1987
2/6/1987
3/3/1991
3
1
3
2
2
3
1
2
2
2
2
2
3
1
1
0
0
1
1
0
1
0
0
1
0
1
8/2/1990
3/3/1991
1/16/1991
3/3/1991
1/16/1991
3/3/1991
1/16/1991
3/3/1991
4/30/1991 5/12/1994
4/30/1991 5/12/1994
4/30/1991 5/12/1994
4/30/1991
3/2/1992
5/3/1999 7/17/1999
5/3/1999 7/17/1999
5/8/1998 6/18/2000
5/8/1998 6/18/2000
10/7/2001 12/22/2001
10/7/2001 12/22/2001
10/7/2001 12/22/2001
3/19/2003
5/1/2003
3/19/2003
5/1/2003
3/19/2003
5/1/2003
1
1
1
1
1
3
1
3
1
3
3
1
3
1
1
3
1
1
0
0
0
0
0
1
0
1
0
1
1
0
0
1
1
0
1
1
3
Primary
Primary
Primary
Primary
Primary
Primary
Primary
Primary
Secondary
Primary
Primary
Primary
Primary
Primary until
8/4/1990
Secondary
Secondary
Primary
Primary
Primary
Secondary
Primary
Primary
Primary
Primary
Primary
Primary
Secondary
Primary
Primary
Secondary
Primary
None
None
None
Outcome
Outcome
None
None
Date/outcome
State/date/outcome
Date/outcome
Date/outcome
Date/outcome
Date
Date
Date
Date
Date
Added
Added
Added
Added
Added
Added
Added
Added
Added
Added
Added
Added
Added
Added
APPENDIX 2: Domestic Governing Coalition Shifts
War
First
Kashmir
Palestine
Country
Pakistan
Date
9/11/1948
Details
Governor-General/President of Constituent Assembly Muhammad Ali Jinnah dies
Egypt
12/28/1948
Korean
North Korea 6/26/1950
Korean
USA
Korean
South Korea 11/23/1950
Korean
Korean
Korean
North Korea 12/21/1950
North Korea 1/31/1951
South Korea 5/16/1951
Korean
Korean
USA
9/17/1951
South Korea 4/24/1952
Korean
Korean
South Korea 5/25/1952
China
8/1/1952
Korean
South Korea 8/5/1952
Korean
Korean
South Korea 10/6/1952
USSR
10/16/1952
Korean
Korean
USA
USSR
Prime Minister Mahmoud an-Nuqrashi Pasha is assassinated and replaced by Ibrahim
Abd al Hadi Pasha
Kim Il-Sung creates 7-man Military Committee that directs all policy decisions during
war
George C. Marshall replaces Secretary of Defense Louis A. Johnson, the last economizer
to be pushed out of Truman’s Administration
Acting Prime Minister Shin Song Mo replaced by Chang Myon; Shin remains defense
minister
Mu-Chong, Kim Il, 7 others expelled from KWP at Third Joint Plenum
Vice Premier and battlefield commander Kim Cha-ek dies
Vice President Yi Si Yong, Defense Minister Shin Song Mo, Interior Minister Cho Pyung
Ok, Justice Min Kim Jun-Yun resigned/relieved because of Ko Chang massacre and
National Defense Corps embezzlement scandal
Robert A. Lovett replaces Secretary of Defense Marshall
Prime Minister Chang Myon resigns, with plans to run for president, replaced by Chang
Taek-Sang
President Rhee declares martial law, arrests 45 National Assembly opposition members
Institutional leadership directly below Secretariat of the CCP Politburo is greatly
expanded
Rhee restructures gov’t with constitutional amendments to consolidate power, reelected in
first direct presidential election, drops Interior Minister Yi Pom Sok
Prime Minister Chang Taek-Sang replaced by Paik Too-Chin
At the 19th Party Congress, Joseph Stalin abolished the 12-member Politburo and created
a Central Committee Presidium with 25 members and 11 candidate members, to minimize
influence of his top deputies
President Dwight Eisenhower sworn into office
Stalin dies, replaced by troika of Lavrenty Beria, Georgy Malenkov, Vyacheslav Molotov
9/19/1950
1/20/1953
3/5/1953
4
RussoHungarian
RussoHungarian
RussoHungarian
RussoHungarian
RussoHungarian
Sino-Indian
Vietnam
Hungary
10/24/1956
Imre Nagy replaces Andras Hegedus as prime minister
Hungary
10/25/1956
Janos Kadar replaces Erno Gero as first secretary
Hungary
10/28/1956
Party control turned over to caretaker Presidium
Hungary
10/30/1956
Multiparty system announced
Hungary
11/3/1956
Four-party government coalition created
11/7/1962
2/16/1965
Defense Minister Krishna Menon and some top generals fired
Phan Huy Quat replaces Nguyen Khahn as prime minister
6/14/1965
9/3/1967
Nguyen Van Thieu and Nguyen Cao Ky replace President Phan Khac Suu and Prime
Minister Phan Huy Quat
Ky marginalized by Thieu following presidential elections
2/29/1968
1/20/1969
9/2/1969
Defense Secretary McNamara resigns, replaced by Clark Clifford
President Richard Nixon sworn into office
General Secretary Ho Chi Minh dies, succeeded by Le Duan
4/21/1975
Thieu resigns, succeeded by Vice President Tran Van Huong
4/28/1975
General Minh takes power
Six-Day
Six-Day
India
South
Vietnam
South
Vietnam
South
Vietnam
USA
USA
North
Vietnam
South
Vietnam
South
Vietnam
Egypt
Egypt
6/9/1967
6/10/1967
Attrition
Attrition
Attrition
Bangladesh
Israel
Israel
Israel
Pakistan
3/17/1969
12/15/1969
8/6/1970
12/13/1971
President Gamal Abdel Nasser resigns
Nasser returns to presidency; Military chief Amer, War Minister Badran and almost all 4star generals fired
Golda Meir replaces Interim Prime Minister Yigal Allon
Golda Meir re-elected in Knesset elections
Menachem Begin and other Gahal ministers resign from national unity government
Governor Malik officially severs ties with West Pakistan
Vietnam
Vietnam
Vietnam
Vietnam
Vietnam
Vietnam
Vietnam
5
Cyprus
Cyprus
Cyprus
VietCambodian
Ogaden
Cyprus
Cyprus
Greece
Vietnam
7/18/1974
7/23/1974
7/23/1974
12/14/1976
Nikos Sampson takes power in a Greek-led coup against Bishop Makarios
Sampson government collapses, replaced by Glafkos Clerides
Greek junta collapses, Konstantinos Karamanlis becomes prime minister
Hoang Van Hoan dropped from Politburo, purge of pro-Chinese party members
Ethiopia
11/11/1977
Ogaden
UgandaTanzanian
Iran-Iraq
Somalia
Uganda
3/10/1978
3/31/1979
Mengistu Haile Mariam executed Atnafu Abate and launched “Red Terror” campaign
against dissidents
Mohamed Siad Barre executed six junta members and staff generals
Defense Minister Emilien Mondo joined the rebel Uganda National Liberation Front
Iran
6/20/1981
Iran-Iraq
Iran
8/30/1981
Iran-Iraq
Iran-Iraq
Iran
Iraq
10/29/1981
6/11/1982
Iran-Iraq
Iran
1/3/1988
Falklands
Argentina
6/17/1982
Lebanon
Lebanon
Lebanon
SinoVietnam II
Gulf War I
Lebanon
Lebanon
Lebanon
Vietnam
8/23/1982
9/14/1982
9/23/1982
12/18/1986
Iraq
12/12/1990
Karabakh
Karabakh
Karabakh
Karabakh
Karabakh
USSR
USSR
Karabakh
8/10/1991
8/19/1991
8/21/1991
8/22/1991
President Bani-Sadr is impeached and replaced by Prime Minister Rajai; Bahonar
becomes prime minister
President Rajai and Prime Minister Bahonar are assassinated; Mohammad Reza MahdaviKani becomes the interim premier
Ali Khameini elected president, Mir-Hussein Musavi elected premier
Saddam consolidates power with smaller government after failed peace offer to Iran
during a special Baath Party Congress
Supreme Leader Khomeini creates a council that sits above the conservative clerics’
Council of Guardians
General Galtieri resigns, replaced by caretaker military government under Reynaldo
Bignone
Bashir Gemayel elected to the presidency
Bashir Gemayel assassinated
Amin Gemayel assumes the presidency
Truong Chinh replaced by Nguyen Van Linh as general secretary, but retains presidency
Saddam Hussein replaces Defense Minister General Abd al-Jabbar Khalil Shansal with
Lt. General Sa’di Tumah Abbas
Valery Grigorian, a top party functionary, assassinated
Coup against General Secretary Mikhail Gorbachev
Gorbachev restored when coup fails
Administrator Polyanichko withdrawn
6
Karabakh
Karabakh
Karabakh
Karabakh
Karabakh
Azerbaijan
Armenia
Azerbaijan
USSR
Karabakh
9/14/1991
10/16/1991
11/20/1991
12/25/1991
1/18/1992
Karabakh
Azerbaijan
3/6/1992
Karabakh
Karabakh
Karabakh
Karabakh
Karabakh
Azerbaijan
Azerbaijan
Azerbaijan
4/14/1992
5/9/1992
5/14/1992
5/15/1992
Karabakh
Karabakh
Karabakh
Karabakh
Karabakh
Karabakh
Azerbaijan
Karabakh
Armenia
Armenia
Azerbaijan
Karabakh
6/7/1992
8/15/1992
10/15/1992
2/3/1993
2/20/1993
6/14/1993
Karabakh
Karabakh
Karabakh
Karabakh
Azerbaijan
Azerbaijan
Azerbaijan
Azerbaijan
6/18/1993
6/24/1993
6/30/1993
5/4/1994
EritreaEthiopian
Eritrea
6/18/2000
Ayaz Mutalibov wins presidential elections; independence from USSR
Levon Ter-Petrossian elected president
Parliament's power transferred to National Council
Gorbachev resigns
Declaration of independence and new parliament; Artur Mkrtchian becomes de facto
leader
Mutalibov resigns; Yaqub Mamedov becomes acting head of state and appoints Rahim
Gaziev as defense minister
Mkrtchian dies
Acting President Mamedov resigns
Mutalibov restored by coup
Mutalibov ousted in counter-coup; Isa Gambar made acting head of state and Iskander
Hamidov becomes interior minister
Abulfaz Elchibey elected president
Robert Kacharian takes over Karabakh Armenian State Defense Committee
Ter-Petrossian appoints Vazgen Manukian as defense minister
Ter-Petrossian appoints new cabinet
Defense Minister Gaziev and military commander Surat Husseinov fired
Parliament Speaker Petrosian resigns, replaced by Karen Baburian; parliament accepts
peace plan
Elchibey flees capital
Heydar Aliev granted extraordinary presidential powers
Husseinov becomes prime minister
Speaker of Parliament Rasul Guliev and Defense Minister Mamedov sign ceasefire while
Aliev out of country
Foreign Minister Haile Weldensae ignores government and unilaterally accepts peace
deal
7