Premier Thoughts: The CSUB Business Blog
Abbas P. Grammy
Professor of Economics
[email protected]
Economic Research Center
www.csub.edu/kej
April 4, 2011
Upheaval in Middle East and North Africa
Part I: Aspirations for Freedom
The collapse of the Ottoman Empire in 1922 enabled the British and French to divide
arbitrarily the Fertile Crescent1 into spheres of influence and control in the form of
small, newly independent countries with predominately Muslim and Arab-speaking
populations. Subsequent decades of the 20th century witnessed the establishment of
more states in the Arabian Peninsula, Northern Africa, and Persian Gulf. Some notable
changes in the political geography of the region included the foundation of Iraq and
Saudi Arabia in 1932, creation of Israel in 1948, independence of Algeria in 1962,
federation of the United Arab Emirates (hereafter, UAE) in 1971, division of Cyprus in
1974, and unification of Yemen in 1990.
With the exception of Turkey, Israel, and Cyprus, countries in the Middle East and North
Africa (hereafter, MENA) established autocratic governments based on a false paradigm
that “growth and development must precede freedom and democracy.” Hence, the
politico-economic elite - largely militarist - assumed the responsibility of leading masses
of the people along a path of growth and development absent of political rights and civil
liberties. With the post-independence experience of India illustrating vividly that
“freedom and democracy must precede growth and development,” better-educated
Iranians took to the streets in 1978-1979 to demand political rights and civil liberties.
Iranians, celebrating the sudden collapse of the mighty Pahlavi monarchy (1925-1979),
did not notice the hijacking of their popular revolution by Islamic fundamentalists. Most
unfortunately for them, the replacement of autocracy by theocracy brought about
pervasive economic deprivation, cruel civil repression, and unprecedented political
isolation.
While the struggle of Iranians to gain freedom continues, the people of Tunisia, Egypt,
Libya, Bahrain, Jordan, Syria, Oman, and Yemen have taken the matters into their own
hands in order to get rid of corrupt autocratic rulers. By the same token, autocratic
regimes of Algeria, Morocco, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and the UAE could also see their
people to demand regime change for gaining freedom and democracy.
1 Regions of Mesopotamia and the Levant, delimited by the dry climate of the Syrian
Desert to the south and the Anatolian highlands to the north. The region is often
considered the Cradle of Civilization. Modern-day countries with significant territory
within the Fertile Crescent are Iraq, Israel, Jordan, Lebanon and Syria, besides the
southeastern fringe of Turkey and the western fringe of Iran.
I submit to you that aspirations for freedom are the underlying motives for current and
future uprising in the MENA. To test of my hypothesis, I let data to speak.
The annual Freedom in the World Survey measures freedom as a combination of
political rights and civil liberties in 194 countries and territories. According to the survey,
political rights enable people to participate freely in the political process, compete for
public office, join political parties and organizations, and elect representatives who have
a decisive impact on public policies and are accountable to the electorate. Likewise, civil
liberties allow for the freedom of expression and belief, associational and organizational
rights, rule of law, and personal autonomy without government intervention.
The survey assigns a numerical rating to each country and territory on a scale of 1 to 7
for political rights and civil liberties; a rating of 1 indicates the highest degree of
freedom and 7 the lowest degree of freedom. These ratings determine whether a
country is Free (1-2), Partly Free (3-5), or Not Free (6-7).
As shown in the following chart, the MENA consist of 21 countries, of which 15 are Not
Free, 4 are Partly Free, and only 2 are Free. Cyprus is offering outmost freedom with
ratings of 1 in political rights and civil liberties. It leads Israel as the only Free nations in
the MENA. The Partly Free nations of the region are Kuwait, Lebanon, Morocco, and
Turkey. Libya has the most repressive regime with ratings of 7 in political rights and civil
liberties. Other Not Free countries are Algeria, Bahrain, Egypt, Iran, Iraq, Jordan, Oman,
Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Sudan, Syria, Tunisia, the United Arab Emirates, and Yemen..
The general characteristics of Not Free countries with regard to political rights and civil
liberties are:
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
One-party autocratic regime, military dictatorship, or religious hierarchy
Lack of representation or autonomy for minority groups
Intolerance of political discussion and acceptance of public petitions
Brutal government oppression, sometimes in combination with civil war
Prevalence of extreme violence or warlord rule that dominates political power
No or limited rights of expression and association
Imprisonment, torture, execution, and assassination of political opponents
The Not Free countries, which operate with underdeveloped civil societies, are unable
to provide political rights. The suppression of civil liberties and political rights has placed
the future of autocracy and theocracy in serious jeopardy. In our era of instantaneous
and costless global communication systems via the Internet and smart telephones, the
populace demands satisfaction of their aspirations for freedom. Unfortunately, though,
violence seems to be a necessary condition for regime survival and change.
Country
Political Rights
Civil Liberties
Freedom Status
Algeria
6
5
Not Free
Bahrain
6
5
Egypt
6
5
Iran
6
6
Iraq
5
6
Jordan
6
5
Libya
7
7
Oman
6
5
Qatar
6
5
Saudi Arabia
7
6
Sudan
7
6
Syria
7
6
Tunisia
6
6
United Arab Emirates
6
5
Yemen
6
5
Kuwait
4
4
Lebanon
5
3
Morocco
5
4
Turkey
3
3
Cyprus, Republic of
1
1
Israel
1
2
Source: Freedom House: Advancing Freedom for 70 years,
http://www.freedomhouse.org/template.cfm?page=1 Data Source:
http://www.freedomhouse.org/template.cfm?page=25&year=2010
Partly Free
Free