EDgE
End-to-end
Demonstrator for
improved decision
making in the water
sector in Europe
Christel PRUDHOMME
EDgE Technical lead and deputy PI
Glenn Watts (WP1 lead), Luis
Samaniego (WP2 lead), Justin
Sheffield (WP2) & Matt Fry (WP3
lead)
SIS meeting, UK, 17-19 October 2016
EDgE vision
• Fully integrated project
Define
Stakeholder
View
Case
Studies
Design
Hydrological
Modelling
For Climate
Impact
Indicators
• Co-design of products and
services
• Iterative development
Implement
• Case studies
Web Delivery
System
On behalf of
• User guidance
for the European Commission
pace
2
EDgE timeline
2 Focus Group 1
1
3
Phase 1 Design
Feb/Mar ‘16
5 Focus Group 2
4
Indicators &
Interface
requirements
Jun ‘16
7
Oct ‘16
Phase 2 Testing
6 Case studies
Sep ‘16
8
Feb ’17
9 Focus Group 3
Mar ‘17
10
Phase 3
Implementing
On behalf of
for the European Commission
pace
Jul ‘17
Dec ‘17
User needs
• Who are the users?
• How are we engaging?
• How can we measure the benefits?
On behalf of
for the European Commission
pace
4
Who are the users?
Norway – local council officer
• Needs to understand future risk
from climate
• Little technical knowledge
• Needs clear information for
local politicians
• Little money available
On behalf of
for the European Commission
pace
5
Who are the users?
UK – water supply planner
• Good hydrological knowledge but
little knowledge of climate change
• Wants to run existing supply system
models to understand climate
change impact
• Wants hydrological information in
an easy-to-use format
• Needs to be able to present results
to senior managers
On behalf of
for the European Commission
pace
6
Who are the users?
Spain – river basin planner
• Multiple pressures on water
resources
• Mainly interested in seasonal
forecasts
• Developing interest in long-term
change but little scientific
knowledge of climate change
• Wants clear information to present
to decision-making forum
On behalf of
for the European Commission
pace
7
Who are the users?
Norway – hydropower planner
• Good hydrological knowledge
• Wants to understand long-term
impact especially of changes in
snow melt
• Wants high quality flow data for
existing models
On behalf of
for the European Commission
pace
8
How are we engaging?
•
•
•
•
•
4 focus groups
Led by user-focused organisations
Engagement tailored for the group’s needs
Face-to-face meetings throughout the project
Presenting ideas and choices
On behalf of
for the European Commission
pace
9
What users use?
EXISTING CLIMATE SERVICES
Provider
Scope
REFERENCE (web link)
UK drought portal
CEH
1
Monthly Hydrological Summary
of the UK
CEH
1
Water situation report for
England
EA
1
https://www.gov.uk/government/collections/water-situation-reports-forengland
UK Climate Projections
EA / Met Office
7
http://ukclimateprojections.metoffice.gov.uk/21708
EUROPEAN FLOOD AWARENESS
SYSTEM (EFAS) system
Copernicus Emergency
Management Service /
ECMWF
4
https://www.efas.eu/
http://emergency.copernicus.eu/
US drought monitor
National Drought
Mitigation Center
3
http://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/
US Seasonal Drought Outlook
Climate Prediction
Center's (CPC)
5
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/expert_assessment/sdo_summary
.php
European Drought Observatory
JRC
2,4 (3)
UFZ drought monitor
UFZ
3
Climate-ADAPT
European Commission / (1),2,(7) http://climate-adapt.eea.europa.eu/knowledge/tools/map-viewer
EEA
,8
UK Hydrological Outlook
NERC/ CEH
Prototype Météo France (FP7
EUPORIAS)
Météo-France
5
http://www.euporias.eu/prototype/water
Prototype IRSTEA
IRSTEA
5
http://hepex.irstea.fr/hepex-seasonal-hydrological-forecasting-workshop/
Case study S-ClimWaRe (FP7
EUPORIAS)
Not defined.
Collaboration AEMET,
DGA and Cetaqua
5
http://sclimware.euporias.eu/
DRIAS CLIMAT
Météo-France
7
http://www.drias-climat.fr/
Climate, snow, river flow, flood
and drought monitor
NVE, MET, Norwegian
mapping Authority,
Railroad and Road
authority
Hydrological real time
observations
On behalf of
NVE
National Drought Indicator
Spanish Ministry of
3,5
1,3
https://eip.ceh.ac.uk/droughts
http://edo.jrc.ec.europa.eu/edov2/php/index.php?id=1000
http://www.ufz.de/index.php?en=37937
http://www.hydoutuk.net/
http://www.xgeo.no/index.html?p=fag (Limited version available in
English)
http://www2.nve.no/h/hd/plotreal/Q/index.html
for the European Commission
pace
http://www.magrama.gob.es/es/ministerio/servicios/publicaciones/rev_nu
What users want?
Metrics
Norway
UK
Spain
Skilful seasonal hydrological forecasts
Change in evapotranspiration
Change in water temperature
Change in drought indices
High resolution information about future climate
On behalf of
for the European Commission
pace
11
What users want?
Interface
Norway
UK
Spain
Simplicity
No post-processing
Interactive maps
Maps and graphs for download
Maps of thresholds or triggers
Ability to chose own scenario
River basin district, administrative boundaries and 5km gridded data
EDgE results in wider context
Skill assessment
Norwegian
On behalf of
Spanish
for the European Commission
pace
12
Measuring the benefits
• Cetaqua – Spanish consultant focused
on water economics
• General market analysis across Europe
• Understanding:
• Current use of hydroclimatological
information
• Economic value of sectors
• How EDgE can add value to
decisions
• Risks and constraints
On behalf of
for the European Commission
pace
13
What’s next for coproduction and testing?
FG 2: Test
interface
On behalf of
Learning and feedback
Focus Group
for the European Commission
pace
Uncertainty/
skill
Updated
Interface
14
EDgE modelling chain concept
Ingredients
•
•
•
•
On behalf of
Physiographic data
Hydrologic & climate information
Modelling chain to estimate tECVs
Source code to estimate SCII indicators
for the European Commission
pace
15
State-of-the-Art modelling chain
750 GB
High Resolution
•
•
On behalf of
30 TB
300 GB
AGU Fall Meeting (Samaniego et al. 2016)
350000+ lines of source code
svn.ufz.de/EDgE/wiki/WikiStart
for the European Commission
pace
16
EDgE domain
• EU 28 member countries
• Associated countries:
Switzerland, Norway, Albania, The
former Yugoslav Republic of
Macedonia, Montenegro, Serbia,
Bosnia and Herzegovina, Kosovo,
Andorra, Monaco, San Marino, and
the Vatican
• Entire river basins
• High resolution: 5 x 5 km2
On behalf of
for the European Commission
pace
17
Seamless model parameters
Open source data
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
On behalf of
for the European Commission
pace
CORINE Land use data v18 4
(EC-EEA)
Global land cover data v2.2
(ESA)
Global 3D Soil Information System
(ISRIC)
Digital elevation model EU-DEM v1
(EEA)
Global 30 Arc-Second Elevation
(USGS)
Pan-European River and Catchment
Database v2.1
(EC-JRC)
Hydrogeological Map of Europe v11
(BGR IHME)
18
Forcings for CP and SF
CMIP5 (ISI-MIP) dataset: 3.5 TB
Seasonal Forecast dataset: 20 TB
GFDL-ESM2M, HadGEM2-ES, IPSL-CM5A-LR, MIROC-ESM-CHEM,
NorESM1-M
NMME: CanCM4, GFDL(FLOR) (12 real.)
ECMWF: ECMF, LFPW (15 real.)
GFDL-ESM2M
monthly precipitation [mm] 2003/04
On behalf of
for the European Commission
pace
Meteo France LFPW forecast 6.1.1991
(from 1.1.1991)
19
High resolution streamflow
ln (Q)
European
floods
2002
Q
8100
3000
1100
400
150
50
20
5
3
On behalf of
for the European Commission
pace
20
SF SCIIs: Drought event Aug. 2003
SMI
Def. SCII12
Denotes the percentage of
realizations of monthly
forecasted SM for every
quintile category and leadtime.
The cut-offs for quintiles
are the 20th, 40th, 60th, and
80th monthly SM
percentiles estimated for
each calendar month over
the reference period.
Q1
E-OBS_mHM_mSMI_08_2003
On behalf of
for the European Commission
pace
21
SF SCIIs: Drought Event Aug. 2003
%
Def. SCII12
Denotes the percentage of
realizations of monthly
forecasted SM for every
quintile category and lead-time.
The cut-offs for quintiles are
the 20th, 40th, 60th, and 80th
monthly SM percentiles
estimated for each calendar
month over the reference
period.
ecmf_sm_quantile_dist_08_2003_lead_from_1month_1quantile
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for the European Commission
pace
22
Importance of uncertainty and skill
• Many challenges in decision making:
• uncertainty in predictions
• uncertainty about the uncertainty (rare but high impact events)
• transient changes (e.g., versus changes in 50 years)
• different needs in terms of precision/resolution and accuracy
• Users should be able to:
• understand that there are uncertainties
• understand the source of uncertainties and how big they are
• acknowledge (be comfortable) that uncertainties will remain high
We believe that this will improve their decision-making and we will test
this through the case studies.
On behalf of
for the European Commission
pace
23
Sources of uncertainty and skill
Historic Simulation Seasonal Forecasts
Climate Projections
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
Hydrological models
Parameters
Observations
On behalf of
•
•
•
•
Climate models
Initial conditions
Hydro models/parameters
Initial conditions
for the European Commission
pace
Climate models
Natural variability
Scenario
Hydro models/parameters
24
Approach to uncertainties and skill in EDgE
Objectives of the uncertainty analysis:
• Quantify uncertainty and skill across
space/time dimensions
• Identify the source of the uncertainty
and skill across each dimension
• Interface with WP1 to understand user
needs and capacity
• and with WP3 on how to represent and
visualize uncertainties and skill
On behalf of
for the European Commission
pace
25
Example Analysis – Hydrological Model Skill
European Water Archive > 4000 stations
• Skill evaluated against
continental databases
• e.g. GRDC/EWA database of
discharge data
• Set of standard skill metrics
such as NSE, RMSE, Corr.
On behalf of
for the European Commission
pace
26
Example Analysis – Seasonal Forecasts
Seasonal Forecast Skill
– evaluated against E-OBS precipitation and temperature, and GRDC discharge
Model 1
Model 2
Model 3
Model 4
Temporal aggregation
Precipitation
Temperature
More skill
Less skill
Lead time 0 – 180 days
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for the European Commission
pace
27
Example Analysis – Climate Projection Unc.
Identifying the source of uncertainty from
scenario choice, natural variability and model uncertainty
Different Variables and Indicators
Freq of
meteo. drought
Soil Moisture
Anom.
Fractional Uncertainty
SPI12
(meteo. drought)
Freq of
SM drought
Water Stress
Index
Mediterranean
Australia
Year
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for the European Commission
pace
28
Co-generation of uncertainty representation
Focus Groups
Evidence Gathering & testing
Capturing the Stakeholder View
Voting sheets for
preferred options
Display
examples
Live demo and
Exercises
Indicators
Interface
Case Studies
On behalf of
for the European Commission
pace
29
The EDgE demonstrator
Live demo
On behalf of
for the European Commission
pace
30
Upcoming work
• Seasonal Forecasting
• Download functionality
• Skill and uncertainty
• Metadata catalogue
• User experience
On behalf of
for the European Commission
pace
31
To conclude on EDgE
Define
Stakeholder
View
Case
Studies
Design
Implement
Web Delivery
System
On behalf of
Hydrological
Modelling
For Climate
Impact
Indicators
An hydro-climate service
co-designed with
stakeholders
to break down barriers for
users of different
backgrounds
to access and understand
state-of-the art hydrological
predictions
for the European Commission
pace
32
THANKS
Questions?
The EDgE demonstrator
Other user tools /
DSS
WMS
(etc)
http
download
EDgE Demonstrator
Custom json
API for
indicators
Bespoke
mapping
Custom
download
tools
THREDDS Server stack
netCDF file store
On behalf of
for the European Commission
pace
Catalogue viewer
/ editor
Metadata
catalogue
(xml, ISO19115)
The EDgE demonstrator
•
Prioritised requirements
•
Maps and graphs of climate change
data
•
Iterative software development
•
2 open webinars with EDgE
stakeholders (26th August, 8th
September)
•
First major iteration complete
•
Seasonal forecast data and download
tools still to be developed
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for the European Commission
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