Post-High School Plans and Aspirations of Black and White High School
Seniors: 1976-86
Robert M. Hauser, Douglas K. Anderson
Sociology of Education, Volume 64, Issue 4 (Oct., 1991), 263-277.
Your use of the JSTOR database indicates your acceptance of JSTOR's Terms and Conditions of Use. A copy of
JSTOR's Terms and Conditions of Use is available at http://www.jstor.org/about/terms.html, by contacting JSTOR
at [email protected], or by calling JSTOR at (888)388-3574, (734)998-9101 or (FAX) (734)998-9113. No part
of a JSTOR transmission may be copied, downloaded, stored, further transmitted, transferred, distributed, altered, or
otherwise used, in any form or by any means, except: (1) one stored electronic and one paper copy of any article
solely for your personal, non-commercial use, or (2) with prior written permission of JSTOR and the publisher of
the article or other text.
Each copy of any part of a JSTOR transmission must contain the same copyright notice that appears on the screen or
printed page of such transmission.
Sociology of Education is published by American Sociological Association. Please contact the publisher for further
permissions regarding the use of this work. Publisher contact information may be obtained at
http://www.jstor.org/journals/asa.html.
Sociology of Education
01991 American Sociological Association
JSTOR and the JSTOR logo are trademarks of JSTOR, and are Registered in the U.S. Patent and Trademark Office.
For more information on JSTOR contact [email protected].
02001 JSTOR
http://www.jstor.org/
Fri Aug 17 09:55:23 2001
POST-HIGH SCHOOL PLANS AND ASPIRATIONS OF
BLACK AND WHITE HIGH SCHOOL SENIORS: 1976-86
Robert M. Hauser and Douglas K. Anderson
University of Wisconsin-Madison
The chances of college entry declined among Black Americans from 1977 through
the mid-1980s, absolutely and relative to those of Whites. During the decline, the
post-high school plans of Black and White seniors followed similar trends. Annual
measurements from the Monitoring the Future surveys show no trends among
Blacks' or Whites' plans to attend technical or vocational school or plans or
aspirations to complete a two-year college program. Plans and aspirations to enter
the armed forces increased among Blacks and Whites, and the increase in plans
was larger among Blacks than among Whites. Plans and aspirations to complete a
four-year college program grew among Blacks and Whites, and the increase in
plans was smaller among Blacks than among Whites. The upward trends among
Blacks, but not among Whites, were driven by favorable changes in social
background. Changes in aspirations among Black high school seniors cannot
account for the decline in their chances of entering college.
dence, the decline is well documented, and
attention has turned to a search for explanations. This article is one piece of an effort to
document and explain the changes in the entry
of Blacks to college (Hauser in press; Jaynes
and Williams 1989, chap. 7). It briefly
Support for the research presented in this article describes the turnaround in Black college
was provided by grants from the National Institute entry and analyzes time series of post-high
on Aging (AG-7604), the Spencer Foundation, the school plans and aspirations that cover the
Graduate School of the University of Wisconsinperiod of decline. There is little evidence that
Madison, and the Kenneth D. Brody Foundation; aggregate changes in Black students' plans
by grants for core support of population research and aspirations correspond to observed
from the National Institute of Child Health and
Human Development (HD-5876) and the William changes in their chances of college entry. Our
and Flora Hewlett Foundation to the Center for main finding is that, in the aggregate, the
Demography and Ecology, University of Wiscon- plans of Black and White seniors have
sin-Madison; and by graduate fellowships from the followed similar paths in time that have
University of Wisconsin and the National Science included stable or declining interest in
Foundation to the second author. The authors technical or vocational schooling and twothank Jerald G. Bachman for his helpful advice year college programs and growing interest in
about the Monitoring the Future surveys; Kenneth military service and in four-year college
A. Shaw and Thomas G. Mortenson, who programs.
prompted their curiosity about trends in the
There are good reasons to think that
post~highschool aspirations of Black and White
seniors; and Robert Mare, who provided other periodic measurements of youths' plans and
helpful suggestions. The opinions expressed he~ein aspirations will provide useful and valid clues
are those of the authors. Address all correspon- about their social and economic futures. For
dence to Dr. Robert M. Hauser, Department of many years, Hauser, Sewell, and others
(Hauser 1973; Hauser, Tsai, and Sewell
Sociology, University of Wisconsin-Madison,
1180 Observatory Drive, Madison, WI 53706.
1983; Sewell 1971; Sewell, Haller, and
See Children's DefenseFund (1985); College Ohlendorf 1970; Sewell, Haller, and Portes
Entrance Examination Board (1985); Lee, Roter- 1969; Sewell and Hauser 1972, 1975; Sewell,
mund, and Bertschman (1985); Wilson and Carter Hauser, and Wolf 1980) have worked to
(1988). Two good reviews of the facts and issues develop and test a social psychological model
From the mid-1970s to the early 1980s,
college entry declined among Black Americans, even as it grew rapidly in the White
population.1 Despite weaknesses in the evi-
surrounding the decline in college attendance
among Blacks are by Arbeiter (1986, 1987). The
rates of college entry among Blacks may have
recovered in the middle and late 1980s (Hauser in
press; Mortenson 1990a), but the decline must still
be explained.
Sociology of Education 1991, Vol. 64 (October):263-277
263
HAUSER AND ANDERSON
of the formation and effects of late adolescents' aspirations and expectations. Briefly,
this model postulates that socioeconomic
background and ability affect aspirations for
schooling and careers by way of their
realization in school performance and in
social support from significant others. Consequently, much of the influence of these prior
variables on post-high school education,
occupational success, and earnings is mediated by plans and aspirations, which account
for much of the variation in post-high school
success. For example, when variables are
corrected for errors of measurement, the
social psychological model accounted for
68.6 percent of the variance in post-high
school educational attainment in a large
cohort of Wisconsin high school graduates
(Hauser et al. 1983, p. 31).2 If data on
adolescents' aspirations or plans have not
been used much in studies of trends in
schooling, it is primarily because there have
been no comparable periodic measurements
of them.
Fortunately, we do have one major survey
resource, the Monitoring the Future (MTF)
surveys (Bachman, Johnston, and O'Malley
1980), which has measured the post-high
school plans and aspirations of high school
seniors using the same questions each year
since 1975.3 These surveys ask about plans
and desires to attend several types of schools
and to enter military service; unfortunately,
they do not ask about entry into the labor
market immediately after high school. The
MTF surveys, conducted by the Survey
Research Center of the Institute of Social
Research at the University of Michigan, are
based upon a nationally representative sample
of some 15,000 to 19,000 high school seniors
each year in approximately 125 public and
private high schools in the coterminous
United States. The sampling design is,rather
inefficient for cross-sectional analyses, but
more powerful for analyses of trends.
Of course, the Wisconsin studies are by no
means unique in documenting the importance of
aspirations and expectations in post-high school
experiences. Although critics have doubted the
validity of this model for Blacks, there is solid
su port for it (Gottfredson 1981; Wolfle 1985).
Although the MTF surveys began in 1975,
there were too many missing data on these items in
the 1975 survey; therefore, the 1975 data were not
used in this report.
'
CHANGES IN COLLEGE ENTRY
In A Common Destiny, the National
Academy of Sciences's (NAS's) Committee
on the Status of Black Americans reported
four major findings about recent trends in the
entry of Blacks into college (Jaynes and
Williams 1989, pp. 338-45).
First, college-entry rates declined among
Black high school graduates from the mid1970s through the early 1980s. Blacks fell
further behind Whites than they were in the
late 1960s. The chances that Black high
school graduates would attend college rose
from about 39 percent in 1973 to about 48
percent in 1977-when they were virtually
eaual to those of whites-and then fell
cdntinuously to about 38 percent through
1983.
Second, the picture looks worse when one
compares the trend in the chance of Black
high school graduates entering college with
that of White high school graduates; from
1973 to 1984, the chance of Whites entering
college rose almost continuously from about
48 percent to 57 percent. College-entry rates
rose most rapidly among Whites after 1979,
when Blacks were experiencing a severe drop
in their chance of entering college. By 1984,
the odds that a Black high school graduate
would enter the first year of college within a
year were less than half the corresponding
odds for a White high school graduate.
Third, the lower incomes of Black families
explain part of the gap in the entry of Blacks
and Whites into college, and during the
1970s, Black high school graduates were
more likely to enter college than were White
high school graduates with the same family
income. However, after 1980, the collegeentry chance of Blacks fell so far that family
income could no longer account for the
Black-White difference.
Fourth, these trends affected both Black
men and Black women, and they affected
mo*st income groups in the Black population.
That is, the decline of Blacks' chances of
entering college, absolutely and relative to
those of Whites, had essentially nothing to do
with changes in family income or in the
college-going chances of men and women.
Only the highest-income families in the Black
population experienced any improvement in
college-going chances in the early 1980s, and
even, this group lost ground relative to
Whites.
PLANS AND ASPIRATIONS OF HIGH SCH(IOL SENIORS
265
Figure 1 and Figure 2 present the central degree.5 However, it is difficult to imagine
findings of the NAS report. They are based that the "normal" level of continuation from
on tabulations of individual-level data for high school to college among Blacks in the
recent high school graduates from October 1980s should have been lower than it was in
Current Population Surveys (CPS) for 1968 to the 1960s.
In Figure 2, the lower trend line is a
1985. The October CPS data cover the
civilian noninstitutional population, and high three-year moving average of the natural log
school graduates who enter military service of the ratio of the odds of college entry among
are not in the base population. The rates of Blacks to the odds of college entry among
Blacks' entry into college are overstated Whites. This measure has a natural point of
absolutely and relative to those of Whites equality, shown near the top of the graph,
because a smaller share of Whites than of where the odds-ratio is equal to 1, so the
Blacks enters the armed forces. In recent natural log is zero. At this point, the odds of
years, 15-20 percent of Black men, but less college entry among Blacks, as given by the
than one-tenth of White men, entered the ratio of entrants to nonentrants, are equal to
armed forces during the year of high school the odds of college entry among Whitese6
There was a long swing from the late 1960s to
graduation (Hexter and El-Khawas 1988).
Figure 1 shows trends in the odds that the middle 1980s, during which the collegeBlack and White high school graduates would going chances of Black high school graduates
attend college. The trend lines have been first moved toward those of Whites and then
adjusted for the effects of family income, sex, diverged, perhaps to a point more distant than
region, and metropolitan location on college in the late 1960s: In 1984, the odds that a
entry; however, the trends are essentially the Black high school graduate would enter the
same when family income and the other first year of college within a year were less
than half the corresponding odds for a White
.~
variables are and are not ~ o n t r o l l e dAmong
Blacks and Whites, the odds of entering high school graduate.
college declined from the late 1960s to the
The upper, adjusted trend line in Figure 2
early 1970s. After 1973> the odds rose, is a comparable measure of difference in the
especially among Blacks, for whom they chances of entering college, but it is based
peaked in 1977. Among Whites, college entry upon a statistical model in which the effects
leveled off between 1975 and 1979, but it of sex, region, metropolitan status, and
rose continuously until 1984. Among Blacks, family income have been controlled.8 That is,
a precipitous decline in college entry began in
1978. It appears to have leveled off after
1981, with Blacks' chances of entering
It is important to look at rates of college
college lower in the 1980s than they were in completion as well as of college entry. The
increasing tendency toward prolonged and partthe late 1960s.
One might think that the peak of college time college attendance implies that we can only
entry in the 1970s was abnormally high, now begin to observe the long-term effects of these
given the other social and economic condi- trends among adult cohorts who are old enough to
completed their schooling. We do know that
tions of Black Americans. Perhaps it was a have
the percentages of 21- to 24-year-old men and
temporary product of an unusual level of women who ever attended college follow the same
public support and enthusiasm, which may trend as the rates of immediate, post-high school
even have drawn an unusual number of college entry (Hauser in press).
college entrants who were unlikely to earn a
When the chance of entering college is nearly
Because of the small number of Black
graduates in the CPS, the data are three-year
moving averages over the period 1968-85. As
shown, the trend lines pertain to male grad_uates
with family incomes of less than $10,000 from
central cities in the South. This choice of reference
categories affects the overall location of the two
trend lines in the vertical dimension, but it does not
affect the year-to-year trends or the relative
position of the trend lines for Blacks and Whites.
50 percent, a shift of .1 on the logarithmic scale is
equivalent to a shift of about 2.5 percentage points
in the chance of college entry.
The Black-White difference in the log scale is
-.7, and e - . 7 = .5.
See Hauser (1987) for details. To a reasonable
approximation, the adjusted trend line in Figure 2
gives the difference between the lines for Blacks
and Whites in Figure 1. However, the models on
which Figure 1 is based permit the effects of
income and other variables to differ between
Blacks and Whites, while the adjustment in Figure
266
HAUSER AND ANDERSON
Blacks
. -Whites
-----
Figure 1. Odds of College Entry among Recent Black and White High School Graduates, Adjusted for
Family Income, Sex, Region, and Metropolitan Location, 1969-84
enter college barely reach the point of
equality in the period around 1977; in the
adjusted series, the chances for their entry
were as good or better than those of Whites
almost continuously from 1971 to 1981. By
1982, the college-going chances of Blacks
were again below those of economically and
socially comparable whites.
Figures 1 and 2 outline a genuine scientific
puzzle that is also of great public interest.
What global social changes have affected the
college-going behavior of Black high school
graduates without equally affecting those of
Whites? Several explanations have been
offered for the downturn in the college
attendance of Blacks: declines in the economic status of Black American families,
differential changes in the propensity of men
and women to attend college, the decreasing
selectivity of high school graduation and the
consequent declines in achievement, the
increasing entry of high school graduates into
2 is based on a model in which the effects of military service, changes in the attractiveness
income and other variables are the same for Blacks of college and vocational or technical educaand Whites.
tiorl, and shifts in the level and form of
This model does not permit the effects of sex, financial aid for college attendance.
region, metropolitan location, or family income to
The data in Figures 1 and 2 show that
vary between Blacks and Whites or across years.
changes
in the economic status of families do
Thus, the difference between the two trend lines in
not
account
for the trend in college entry
Figure 2 is due entirely to differences in the
among Blacks or for the trend in Black-White
composition of the population.
the adjusted trend line controls for differences
between Blacks and Whites and for changes
in the sex composition, geographic location,
and economic standing of Blacks and
Whites.9 Two features of the figure stand out.
First, the two lines are virtually parallel
throughout the period 1969 to 1984. Thus, the
observed trend in Black-White differences in
college entry is in no way a consequence of
changes in sex composition, geographic
location, or economic standing. Second, the
adjusted trend line always lies above the
observed line. That is, once we take the
different social composition of the Black and
White populations into account (on the
variables included in the model), the differences in the chances of entering college are
more nearly centered on the zero point of
equal chances, which is shown about twothirds of the way up the graph. In the
observed data, the chances that Blacks would
PLANS AND ASPIRATIONS OF HIGH SCHOOL SENIORS
,*---.
,0
-
267
-.-.
.4*
***-
,,-.,,
.#*
,
,
8
Equal chances
-0.8
\
8
\
8
- - - - - - 0
8
Adjusted
8
\
8
0
.,
8
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
1969
1971
1973
1975
1977
1979
1981
1983
Figure 2. Black-White Differences in College Entry, Observed and Adjusted for Family Income, Sex,
Region, and Metropolitan Location, 1969-84
differences in college entry. Hauser (1987)
found that similar trends hold separately for
men and for women, so changes in the
tendency of Black or White men or women to
enter college do not account for the downturn
in the entry of Blacks into college. We also
found similar trends during the first two years
after high school graduation and in entry to
two-year and four-year institutions.
Black Women
The selectivity of high school graduation
itself deserves to be considered as a possible
source of decline in the college entry of
Blacks. Figure 3 presents the percentages of
21- to 24-year-old Blacks and non-Black,
non-Hispanic (hereafter, White) persons who
completed high school from 1971 to 1988.
The rates of high school completion increased
among Blacks throughout the 1970s. As the
Black Men White Women
- .....................
---
White Men
Figure 3. Percentage Completing High School: Blacks and Whites Aged 21-24, 1971-88.
268
selectivity of high school graduation declines,
one might argue that continuation to college
should decline. Yet selectivity is an unlikely
source of declining entry into college; there is
no historical evidence for cohorts, Black or
White, that would suggest a negative correlation between rates of high school completion
and rates of continuation to college (Hauser
1986, Figs. 20-22). On the contrary, the
intercohort growth in college graduation has
been driven by a combination of increased
rates of high school completion and stable or
slightly increasing rates of continuation to
college.
In fact, the academic performance of Black
high school students has improved, absolutely
and relative to Whites, since the early 1970s
(Congressional Budget Office 1986, Chap. 4;
Humphreys 1988; Jaynes and Williams 1989,
pp. 348-54; Mullis and Jenkins 1990, pp.
13-17). For example, Figure 4 shows the
location of the second and third quartiles of
the Reading Proficiency scores of Black and
White 17 year olds on the National Assessment of Educational Progress from 1971 to
1988 (Mullis and Jenkins 1990, p. 65). In
1971, there was almost no overlap between
the second quartile of the White distribution
and the third quartile of the Black distribution; by 1988, the third quartile of
the Black distribution was virtually the same
as the second quartile of the White distribution.
Neither do changes in entry into military
service appear to be responsible for the
decline in the entry of Blacks into college.
Although the share of military recruits who
were high school graduates increased from
61.8 to 9 1 . 6 perceit between 1976 to 1982
among Black men, the percentage of male
Black high school graduates who entered
military service declined from 21 to 13
percent between 1979 and 1982 (Hexter and
El-Khawas 1988, pp. 5, 36). l o Moreover, the
fact that similar trends in college entry
occurred among men and women adds to the
evidence that changes in entry into the armed
forces do not account for the downturn in the
entry of Blacks into college
lo During this same period, the rates of entry
into military service increased from 7.3 percent to
8.3 percent among White men; this increase was
not large enough to affect the Black-White
comparison.
HAUSER AND ANDERSON
TRENDS IN PLANS AND ASPIRATIONS
Have there been changes in Black high
school graduates' plans or aspirations that
might help explain the decline in their entry
into college? We looked at two series of
questions from the MTF surveys that ask
about post-high school expectations (plans
after high school graduation) and post-high
school aspirations (desired post-high school
activities). Aspirations and expectations were
ascertained in exactly the same way each year
with respect to attendance at technical or
vocational school, entry into military service,
completion of a two-year college program,
and completion of a four-year college program. We examined aggregate trends in the
choice of each activity for Blacks and Whites
and compared the trends in choices between
Blacks and Whites. Table 1 summarizes our
findings about aggregate trends.
Black Students' Plans: An Overview
From 1976 to 1985, the percentage of Black
seniors with definite plans to attend a technical
or vocational school fluctuated between 10 and
13 percent, while the percentage with definite
or probable intentions fluctuated between 35
and 40 percent. There is little indication of a
trend in this series and certainly no suggestion
that Black seniors' plans for post-high school
technical or vocational training increased. If
there was a trend during this period, it was a
decline in plans to attend technical or vocational school. l l
There is clear evidence of increasing
l 1 Throughout this section, all the statements in
the text about trends, Black-White differences in
plans, and trends in Black-White differences are
supported by formal statistical tests. In carrying
out these tests, we used a design factor (DEFF =
2.7) to deflate the counts in the cross-classification
table. In reporting the results of the tests, we use
the term change to refer to any variation in
responses across years and the term trend to refer
to monotonic or linear shifts in responses across
years. We used a .05 significance level. Likelihood-ratio chi-square tests for changes in the
proportion of Black students with definite or
probable plans to attend technical or vocational
schools after high school yielded nonsignificant
values. There was no significant linear trend in the
proportion of Black students either with definite
plans gr with definite or probable plans to attend
technical or vocational school.
PLANS AND ASPIRATIONS OF HIGH SCHOOL SENIORS
i!88
n
d::f:
and Third Quartile
2 i r n d and Third Quartile
Figure 4. Quartiles of Reading Proficiency: 17-Year-Old Black and White Students, 1971-88
interest in military service throughout the
decade. Plans to enter military service were
least popular in 1977, when 8.2 percent of
Black seniors had definite plans to enter and
16.0 percent more said they would probably
enter. Even here, of course, the interest in
military service was widespread, for these
data pertain to all Black seniors, male and
female. Plans to enter military service were at
their peak in 1985, when 16.3 percent of
Black seniors said they had definite plans to
enter the military and 22.3 percent more said
they probably would enter. l 2
The percentage of Black seniors with
definite plans to complete a two-year college
program varied between 9 and 14 percent
during the decade, but there was no linear
trend nor any other significant variation
across time in the percentage of those with
definite plans.
Plans to attend a four-year college were
widespread, consistent with a good deal of
l2 The changes over time in definite and in
probable plans to enter the armed forces are
statistically significant. A positive linear trend in
the chances of expressing definite or probable
plans to enter the armed forces accounted for about
two-thirds of all changes across the decade in the
combination of these two responses; there was no
trend across time in the choice between definite
and probable plans.
other evidence that Black youths report high
levels of aspiration. From 32 percent to 40
percent of Black seniors said they definitely
planned to graduate from a four-year college,
and another 20-25 percent said they would
probably graduate from a four-year college.
The percentages who reported the several
plans appear to have varied more from year to
year in the case of college attendance than in
the case of other items, but the overall
tendency was toward growth in plans to
complete a four-year college program,
amounting to about .5 percent per year with
definite or probable plans. That is, senioryear plans to complete a four-year college
program increased slightly, even as the entry
of Blacks into college declined. l 3
13
In global tests for change, there was no
significant variation in definite plans from year to
year. However, there was a significant temporal
change in the proportion who stated that they had
definite or probable plans to complete a four-year
college program. There were also significant linear
increases in the chances of having a definite plan to
compete a four-year college program and a
probable or definite plan to complete a four-year
college program. There were no significant
temporal variations in the relative chances of
definite or probable plans, either within the group
who planned to attend college or within the group
who did not plan to attend college.
270
HAUSER AND ANDERSON
Table 1. Summary of Aggregate Trends: Monitoring the Future Surveys, 1976-85
Technical-Vocational
Armed Services
Two-Year College
Four-Year College
No trend
No trend
None
UP
UP
Black larger
No trend
Up (small)
None
UP
UP
White larger
Down
Down
None
U-shaped
U-shaped
None
None
None
None
UP
UP
None
Plans
Black
White
Difference in trend
Aspirations
Black
White
Difference in trend
Blacks' versus Whites' Plans
program, but this differential was eliminated
over the decade by the faster growth in
college plans among whites.
If senior-year plans are to help explain the
divergence between the college-entry chances
of Blacks and Whites, then there must also be
different trends in the plans of Black and Blacks' versus Whites' Aspirations
White seniors. Thus, ;t is necessary to
Aspirations are desired outcomes that are
compare trends in the post-high school plans
not limited by constraints on resources. To
of Black seniors and White seniors and to
measure aspirations, the MTF surveys ask
look for differences in those trends.
about the several post-high school activities
First, there does not appear to have been
with the instruction, "Suppose you could do
any trend in White seniors' plans for technical
just what you'd like, and nothing stood in
or vocational schooling or any difference
your way. How many of the following things
between Blacks and Whites in the temporal
would you WANT to do?" In brief, we found
pattern of those plans.14 Second, changes in
no significant differences in the aggregate
plans to enter military service may have been
trends in aspirations of Black seniors and
sources of the decline in the college attenWhite seniors. In particular, there is no
dance of Blacks. In relative terms, interest in
suggestion in the data of declining college
military service grew among Blacks and aspirations among Black seniors, and we
Whites. The consequences of this growth
found the same trends among Black men as
were larger in the Black population because a
among Black women.
larger
share of Blacks was interested in
"
serving in the military. There was also a
larger relative growth in probable plans to Controlling Social Background
enter the military among Blacks than among
As a further test and elaboration of these
Whites. Third, there was virtually no difference between Blacks and Whites in the level findings, we looked at trends in college plans
or trend of plans to complete a two-year and aspirations, by sex, controlling social
college program. Fourth, there were increases background -region, urban location, intact
in plans to complete a four-year college family, mother's education, and father's
program among blacks, but the rate of education-using unit-record data for approxincrease was larger among Whites. In 1976, imately 138,000 seniors from 1976 to 1986.
more Blacks than Whites reported they were Our findings about college plans and aspiraplanning to complete a four-year college tions are presented in Figures 5-8.
Figure 5 shows observed and adjusted trend
lines in the college plans of Black women and
l4 There was no significant linear trend across
White women. The upper two lines are the
time or other temporal change in the log odds that observed trends, while the lower two trend
the high school seniors definitely or probably lines were adjusted for region, urban location,
planned to attend technical or vocational school. In
family structure, and parents' education. The
the cases both of definite plans and of probable or
definite plans combined, the cross-classification of intercepts of the adjusted trend lines were
race by plan by year by a log-linear model with no chosen arbitrarily, so there is nothing interestthree-wav interactions fitted well. and no associa- ing in the relative location of the observed
tion was'found between plans aid year, linear or and adjusted lines. The important matters are
nonlinear, for Blacks or Whites.
the trends and Black-White differences in the
PLANS AND ASPIRATIONS OF HIGH SCHOOL SENIORS
White: Observed
.------ Black: Observed
White: Adjusted
.............
27 1
- ---
Black: Adjusted
Note: Adjusted series control region, urban location, family structure, and parents' education.
Figure 5. College Plans of Black and White Female High School Seniors, 1976-86
trends. As we already remarked, the observed
trend in college plans was upward for Black
women and White women. The adjusted trend
was also upward throughout the decade for
White women, while for Black women, there
may have been a decline from 1976 to 1978,
White: Observed
. - - - - - - Black: Observed
followed by a plateau for the remainder of the
decade. Evidently, the trend in White women's plans was strong, regardless of social
background, while the trend for Black women
is explained by changes in social background
that favor increases in plans to attend college.
White: Adjusted
.............
- ---
Black: Adjusted
Note: Adjusted series control region, urban location, family structure, and parents' education.
Figure 6. College Plans of Black and White Male High School Seniors, 1976-86
HAUSER AND ANDERSON
Figure 6 presents a parallel analysis of
college plans by Black men and White men,
and the findings are similar to those for
women. During this period, the growth of
Black men's and White men's plans to attend
college in the aggregate were similar; when
social background was controlled, the trend
remained favorable among Whites, but there
is a suggestion of a decline among Blacks.
Figure 7 depicts the analysis of the college
aspirations of Black women and White
women. Again, the observed, aggregate trend
was favorable among Blacks and Whites. The
adjusted trend line shows a steady growth in
the college aspirations of White women, but
essentially no trend among Black women.
Finally, Figure 8 shows the trends in the college aspirations of Black men and White men.
The observed, aggregate trends indicate virtually the same, favorable movement among
Blacks and Whites. After adjustment for social
background, there was still a steady growth in
the aspirations of White men, but essential stability in the aspirations of Black men.
We believe that increasing levels of parental
schooling account for the observed growth in
the college plans and aspirations of Black Americans. For example, Figure 9 shows the changing distributions of maternal education among
Black and White seniors in the MTF surveys. l5
The share of mothers with less than a high school
education declined among all groups of seniors, but the declines were larger among Blacks.
Obversely, the share of mothers with more than
a high school education increased among Blacks
and Whites.
In one important respect, the social background of high school seniors became less
favorable to college plans or aspirations.
Figure 10 presents the changes in the
percentages of Black seniors and White
seniors who lived with both parents. These
percentages decreased steadily among
Whites, but the decrease among Blacks took
place mainly after 1980, when the decline in
college attendance was well under way.
Evidently, the growth in parental schooling
among Blacks outweighed the negative effects of changes in family composition in
driving the overall trends in college plans and
aspirations. Although Blacks and Whites
shared increases in parental schooling and
l5 Similar trends were found in the educational
attainments of fathers.
decreases in intact families, the growth in the
aspirations and plans of Whites to attend
college was greater than that implied by the
changes in social background.
Although the sources of trends in college
plans and aspirations are evidently different
for Black and White high school seniors,
there was growth from 1976 to 1986 in the
plans and aspirations of all four groups: Black
and White, male and female. Among Whites,
plans and aspirations grew, regardless of
social background-as specified by regional
and urban location, parental schooling, and
family structure; among blacks, the trends
were driven by favorable changes in background, primarily, we believe, by historic
gains in parental schooling. All the same, we
find nothing in the data that would suggest
that changes in plans or aspirations could
account for the turnaround in Blacks' collegegoing chances.
Plans versus Aspirations
Changing levels of opportunity may be
expressed in changing relationships between
plans and aspirations. That is, even though
we have no reason to find close agreement
between aspirations and plans, either at the
individual level or in the aggregate, changes
in aggregate plans relative to levels of
aspirations may indicate changes in the
availability of resources for the pursuit of
different activities. This possibility is suggested by a comparison of the adjusted trends
in college plans and aspirations, for there may
have been some decline in the former among
Blacks, but not in the latter.
To pursue this issue, we modeled the joint
distributions of college plans and aspirations
across time, considering the effects of social
background on each by gender and looking
for conditional variations in the relationship
between plans and aspirations. Briefly, there
is little variation in the relationship between
plans and aspirations. However, the two are
more closely linked among youths-male or
female-who are White or are from intact
families. On the other hand, there have been
no significant temporal changes in the -relati'onship between plans and aspirations or in
the effects of other variables on that relationship. Thus, we find no evidence of a change
in the relationship between college plans and
aspirations that could help explain the trend in
the college attendance of Blacks.
PLANS AND ASPIRATIONS OF HIGH SCHOOL SENIORS
1
White: Observed
-------
Black: Observed White: Adjusted
.............
Black: Adjusted
----
Note: Adjusted series control region, urban location, family structure, and parents' education.
Figure 7. College Aspirations of Black and White Female High School Seniors, 1976-86
DISCUSSION
There is little evidence that aggregate
changes in Black students' plans or aspirations corresponded to the observed changes in
their chances of college entry. Our main
finding is that the college plans and aspira-
White: Observed
.------
Black: Observed
tions of Black seniors and White seniors
followed similar paths in time, even though
the
these trends differed.
The larger absolute and relative increase in
the plans of Black youths to enter the armed
forces, along with the larger increase in the
White: Adjusted
.............
Black: Adjusted
----
Note: Adjusted series control region, urban location, family structure, and parents' education.
Figure 8. College Aspirations of Black and White Male High School Seniors, 1976-86
274
HAUSER AND ANDERSON
Black Women
100
Black Men
100
White Women
White Men
HMore than High School
High School Graduate
Figure 9. Mother's Educational Attainment: Black and White High School Seniors, by Sex, 1976-86
plans of White youths to complete a four-year
college program, may be said to correspond
to some degree with the turnaround in the
entry of Blacks into college. Yet, this is weak
evidence indeed of a change in values or
motivations among Blacks-or even of post-
high school intentions, narrowly conceivedthat would be sufficient to account for the
decline in their chances of entering college.
Both in the case of military service and of
four-year college programs, the overall trends
in plans were the same for Blacks as for
Black Men White Women White Men
-.
- - .....................
Black Women
Figure 10. Percentage of Black and White High School Skniors Living with Both Parents, 1976-86
PLANS AND ASPIRATIONS OF HIGH SCHOOL SENIORS
Whites; the only difference was in the rate of
change, not in the direction of change.
Furthermore, there were no significant differences in the trends of Black seniors' and
White seniors' aspirations for any of the
post-high school activities that have been
examined here.
The movements of plans and aspirations
provide some help in our efforts to explain the
turnaround in the entry of Blacks into college.
First, we have learned, certainly, that the
turnaround is not explained by any massive
shift in Black seniors' aspirations or plans.
Although the levels of Blacks' and Whites'
expectations and aspirations differed, the
Blacks' and Whites' definite plans for postsecondary education and the trends in those
plans were similar, as were their aspirations
for post-secondary schooling and the trends in
those aspirations.
Second, although college entry in the fall
following high school graduation is a useful
indicator of college attendance, especially
because it can be linked to other social
characteristics in the CPS, it is by no means
the only relevant or sound indicator of
post-high school educational attainment. If
the evidence of a rise and fall in the rates of
entry into college is valid, then it ought to be
reflected, with a lag of several years, in rates
of completing college. If there was no lagged
rise and fall in the completion of college, then
the trends in college entry may have reflected
temporary shifts in the timing of the entry and
in the persistence of the entrants. Changes in
the timing and intensity of college attendance
have made it more difficult to measure and
compare rates of college completion in recent
years (Schmitt 1989).
Third, we ought to look more closely at the
chances of entry into military service and at
the possible reasons for it. This remains an
interesting, but questionable line of explanation. On the positive side, Blacks' plans and
aspirations to enter the military grew during
this period; on the negative side, they grew
almost as fast among Whites as among
Blacks. Also on the negative side was the
close correspondence between trends in the
chances that Black men and Black women
would enter college and, most important, the
decline in the entry of Black male high school
graduates into military service.
Fourth, we ought to look further into other
possible sources of the turnaround, about
which the present analysis provides no
275
evidence. One relevant source of the turnaround in college entry could be changes in
the labor market for recent Black high school
graduates. There is a good deal of evidence
that continuation in school is countercyclical,
that is, that strong labor markets attract
potential students, while weak labor markets
drive potential students into school (Duncan
1965; Mare 1981). We have not yet seen a
definitive assessment of changes in the labor
market for recent high school graduates from
the late 1970s to the middle 1980s; here, the
difficulty would be to show that the market
became more favorable for Black high school
graduates, but not so favorable for White high
school graduates.
Perhaps the most plausible source of the
decline in Blacks' entry into college was the
shift from direct grants toward loans to
finance college attendance. From 1975-76 to
1985-86, the percentage of all financial aid
that was in the form of outright grants
declined from 80 percent to 46 percent, while
the percentage of financial aid in the form of
loans increased from 17 percent to 50 percent
(College Board 1986; Gillespie and Carlson
1983). This change probably hurt Blacks'
college-going chances more than it did
Whites'. '6
At equal levels of current family income,
Black youths are less economically secure
than are White youths because Black families
are more vulnerable than are White families
to unemployment. Thus, we would expect
Blacks to have discounted the future more
heavily than did Whites at every income
level. Also, at equal levels of current family
income, Black youths are less wealthy than
are White youths because Black families
typically have accumulated far less in economic assets than have White families. Thus,
Blacks would have been less likely than
would Whites to have a family capable of
absorbing the cost of a loan, again, regardless
of income. A potential postcollege debt of
$10,000 would loom much larger for Blacks,
regardless of their families' current income,
than for Whites.
One item of evidence to support this
interpretation is that Black high school
l6 Mortenson (1989a, 1989b, 1990b, 1990c)
carried out the most extensive studies to date of the
influence on Black and low-income students of the
changing structure of the financing of higher
education.
HAUSER AND ANDERSON
seniors in the High School and Beyond survey
of 1980 were far more likely than were either
Whites or Hispanics to report that "expenses"
or "financial aid" were "very important" in
their choice of a postsecondary educational
institution. For example, 62.8 percent of the
Black male seniors, compared to 31.9 percent
of the White male seniors, said that financial
aid was "very important" in their choice
(National Center for Research in Vocational
Education 1987, p. 85). Similarly, Miller and
Hexter (1985, p. 17) reported: "Minority
students are less likely to borrow than white
students; fewer than one-third of low-income
minority aid recipients secure a GSL [Guaranteed Student Loan], compared with more than
two-fifths of low-income white aid recipients." From the findings of this report, we
think that the lack of financial support may be
a key variable in explaining observed changes
in college entry.
REFERENCES
Arbeiter, Solomon. 1986, May. "Minority Enrollment in Higher Education Institutions: A Chronological View. " Research and Development
Update. New York: College Board.
.
1987, May-June. "Black Enrollments:
The Case of the Missing Students." Change, pp.
14-19.
Bachman, Jerald G., Lloyd D. Johnston, and
Patrick M. O'Malley. 1980. Monitoring the
Future: Questionnaire Responses $-om the Nation's High School Seniors, 1978. Ann Arbor:
Survey Research Center, Institute for Social
Research, University of Michigan.
Children's Defense Fund. 1985. Black and White
Children in America: Key Facts. Washington,
DC: Author.
College Board. 1986. Trends in Student Aid, 1980
to 1986. Washington, DC: Author.
College Entrance Examination Board. 1985.
Equality and Excellence: The Educational Status
of Black Americans. New York: Author.
Congressional Budget Office. 1986. Trends in
Educational Achievement. Washington, DC:
U.S. Government Printing Office.
Duncan, Beverly. 1965, April. "Dropouts and the
Unemployed." Journal of Political Economy
73:121-34.
Gillespie, Donald A. and Nancy Carlson. 1983.
Trends in Student Aid: 1963 to 1983. Washington, DC: Washington Office, College Board.
Gottfredson, Denise C. 1981. "Black-White Differences in the Educational Attainment Process:
What Have We Learned?" American Sociological Review 46542-57.
Hauser, Robert M. 1973. "Disaggregating a
Social-Psychological Model of Educational Attainment." Pp. 255-84 in Structural Equation
Models in the Social Sciences, edited by A. S.
Goldberger and 0. D. Duncan. New York:
Seminar Press.
-,
1986. "Notes on the Distribution of
Schooling in the Black Population." Working
Paper, No. 86-8. Madison: Center for Demography and Ecology, University of Wisconsin.
.
1987. "College Entry among Black High
School Graduates: Family Income Does Not
Explain the Decline." Working Paper, No.
87-19. Madison: Center for Demography and
Ecology, University of Wisconsin.
-.
In press. "The Decline in College Entry
among African Americans: Findings in Search of
Explanations. " In Prejudice, Politics, and Race
in America Today, edited by Paul Sniderman,
Philip Tetlock, and Edward Carmines. Stanford,
CA: Stanford University Press.
Hauser, Robert M., Shu-Ling Tsai, and William
H. Sewell. 1983. "A Model of Stratification
with Response Error in Social and Psychological
Variables. " Sociology of Education 56:20-46.
Hexter, Holly and Elaine El-Khawas. 1988.
"Joining Forces: The Military's Impact on
College Enrollments. " Washington, DC: American Council on Education.
Humphreys, Lloyd G. 1988. "Trends in Levels of
Academic Achievement of Blacks and Other
Minorities. " Intelligence 12:231-60.
Jaynes, Gerald David and Robin M. Williams, Jr.
(Eds.). 1989. A Common Destiny: Blacks and
American Society. Committee on the Status of
Black Americans, Commission on Behavioral
and Social Sciences, National Research Council.
Washington, DC: National Academy Press.
Lee, John B., Max K. Rotermund, and Jo Ann
Bertschman. 1985. Student Aid and Minority
Enrollment in Higher Education. Washington,
DC: Applied Systems Research Institute.
Mare, Robert D. 1981. "Market and Institutional
Sources of Educational Growth." 4.205-45 in
Research in Social Strat$cation and Mobility,
edited by Donald J. Treiman and Robert V.
Robinson. Greenwich, CT: JAI Press.
Miller, S. and H. Hexter. 1985. "How LowIncome Families Pay for College." Washington,
DC: American Council on Education.
Mortenson, Thomas G. 1989a. Family Income,
Children, and Student Financial Aid. ACT
Student Financial Aid Research Report Series,
Vol. 89-1. Iowa City, IA: American College
Testing Program.
.
1989b. Missing College Attendance
Costs: Opportunity, Financing, and Risk. ACT
Financial Aid Research Report Series, Vol.
89-3. Iowa City, IA: American College Testing
Program.
.
1990a. College Entrance Rates for Recent
~ i g hSchool Graduates. ACT Financial Aid
PLANS AND ASPIRATIONS OF HIGH SCHOOL SENIORS
Research Briefs, Vol. 5. Iowa City, IA:
American College Testing Program.
.
1990b. The Impact of Increased Loan
Utilization among Low Family Income Students.
ACT Student Financial Aid Research Report
Series, No. 90-1. Iowa City, IA: American
College Testing Program.
-,
1990c. The Reallocation of Financial Aid
from Poor to Middle Income and AfJluent
Students: 1978 to 1990. ACT Student Financial
Aid Research Report Series, Vol. 90-2. Iowa
City, IA: American College Testing Program.
Mullis, Ina V. S. and Lynn B. Jenkins. 1990. The
Reading Report Card, 1971-88: Trends from the
Nation's Report Card. National Assessment of
Educational Progress. Princeton, NJ: Educational Testing Service.
National Center for Research in Vocational
Education. 1987. Transitionfrom High School to
Postsecondary Education: Analytical Studies.
Washington, DC: Center for Education Statistics, Office of Educational Research and Improvement, U. S. Department of Education.
Schmitt, Carl. 1989. "Changes in Educational
Attainment: A Comparison among 1972, 1980,
and 1982 High School Seniors." Survey Report
(CS 89-413). National Center for Education
Statistics. Washington, DC: U.S. Government
Printing Office.
Sewell, William H. 1971. "Inequality of Opportu-
277
nity for Higher Education." American Sociological Review 36:793-809.
Sewell, William H., Archibald 0. Haller, and
George W. Ohlendorf. 1970. "The Educational
and Early Occupational Status Attainment Process: Replication and Revision. " American
Sociological Review 35: 1014-27.
Sewell, William H., Archibald 0. Haller, and
Alejandro Portes. 1969. "The Educational and
Early Occupational Attainment Process." American Sociological Review 34:82-92.
Sewell, William H. and Robert M. Hauser. 1972.
"Causes and Consequences of Higher Education:
Models of the Status Attainment Process."
American Journal of Agricultural Economics
54:85 1-61.
-.
1975. Education, Occupation, and Earnings: Achievement in the Early Career. New
York: Academic Press.
Sewell, William H., Robert M. Hauser, and
Wendy C. Wolf. 1980. "Sex, Schooling and
Occupational Status." American Journal of
Sociology 8655 1-83.
Wilson, Reginald and Deborah J. Carter. 1988.
Eighth Annual Status Report: Minorities in
Higher Education. Washington, DC: American
Council on Education.
Wolfle, Lee M. 1985. "Postsecondary Educational
Attainment Among Whites and Blacks."
American Educational Research Journal 22:
501-25.
Robert M. Hauser, Ph.D., is Vilas Research Professor and Samuel A. Stouffer Professor, Department of
Sociology, University of Wisconsin-Madison. His main Pelds of interest are soc<alstrat$cation, social
statistics, education, and research methods. He was chair of the Panel on Education, Committee on the
Status of Black Americans, National Research Council. He is currently working on trends in social
mobility and on school enrollment and grade progression and is designing a 1992 follow-up of the
Wisconsin Longitudinal Study.
Douglas K . Anderson, MS, is a doctoral candidate, Department of Sociology, University of
Wisconsin-Madison. His main interests are sociology of education, social statistics, and social
stratification. He is currently working on a dissertation that compares Black, Hispanic, and White rates
of progress and failure in secondary education and on a project modeling measurement error in social
and economic variables.