April 2017
Post-Election Research: Persuadable
and Drop-off Voters
Research findings prepared for Priorities USA
by Global Strategy Group & Garin Hart Yang
1
Methodology
1
Focus Groups
GSG and GHY conducted two focus
groups in Oak Creek, Wisconsin on
January 26th, two in Southfield,
Michigan on January 28th, and two in
Tampa, Florida on January 29th, 2017.
In each set of groups, one group was
conducted with Obama-Trump voters
and one with turnout targets
(millennials in WI & FL and African
American voters in MI who voted for
Obama but did not vote in 2016).
2
Obama- Trump Survey
GSG and GHY conducted a survey of 801
registered voters who voted for Donald
Trump in 2016 and Barack Obama in
2012 from January 31st to February 4th,
2017.
3
Drop-off Voter Survey
GSG and GHY conducted a survey of 803
registered voters nationwide from
March 31st to April 5th, 2017,
conducting interviews with 401
midterm drop-off voters (voted for
Clinton in 2016 but did not vote in 2014)
and 402 presidential drop-off voters
(voted for Obama in 2012 but did not
vote in 2016).
2
Understanding Drop-off and Persuadable
Voters
3
Key Findings: Persuadable and Drop-off voters
A key commonality between turnout voters and Obama-Trump voters is that they
are struggling economically.
•
Clinton and Democrats’ economic message did not break through to drop-off or
Obama-Trump voters, even though drop-off voters are decidedly anti-Trump.
•
Drop-off voters already believe that Trump’s policies will benefit the wealthy over
other groups, but there is more work to be done to convince Obama-Trump voters that
this is the case.
•
Ensuring corporations pay their fair share of taxes, modernizing infrastructure, and
increasing the development of renewable energy are seen as economically beneficial
by both groups.
Health care is a critical motivator for both Democratic drop-off voters and
persuadable Trump voters.
•
•
Both groups identify cuts to Medicare, Medicaid, and other healthcare programs as
policies that would have a very bad effect on them personally.
Among drop-off voters, items related to health care (increasing costs for seniors,
cutting important programs, and millions of Americans losing coverage) are frequently
rated as very major concerns.
4
Both drop-off and Obama-Trump voters feel their income is falling behind
the cost of living and few are very satisfied with the state of the economy
How satisfied are you with the state of the US economy today?
Very satisfied Somewhat satisfied DK/Refused Somewhat dissatisfied Very dissatisfied
Drop-off Voters
10
47
Obama-Trump Voters
16
37
25
34
15
13
Income Relative to Cost of Living
Income going up faster than Income staying about even with the Income falling behind the
cost of living/DK
the cost of living
cost of living
Drop-off Voters
Obama-Trump Voters
8
19
49
31
43
50
More presidential drop-off voters feel their income is falling behind the cost of living (46%), on
par with Obama-Trump voters (50%).
5
Obama-Trump Voters In Depth
6
Obama-Trump voters were drawn to Trump more on his business persona than on
his issue stands – especially ambivalent Trump backers
Which of the following was more important to you in deciding to vote for Donald Trump?
His background as a businessman and
the fact that he is not a typical politician
Overall
Strongly supported DJT
Mixed feelings about DJT
39
34
43
Both equally
His stand on policies and
issues that matter to you
24
28
20
37
38
37
Would you say that your vote for president was more a vote FOR Donald Trump, more a vote against
Clinton, or both equally?
More a vote FOR Trump
Overall
Strongly supported DJT
Mixed feelings about DJT
48
75
21
Both equally
More a vote AGAINST CLINTON
22
17
26
30
8
53
7
Trump supporters prioritize Social Security, Medicare, and jobs –
but only strong supporters prioritize immigration and trade
Priorities for the President and Congress
Extremely important
Not important
Strongly
Supp.
Mixed
Feelings
Protecting Social Security for senior citizens
57
28
15
61
54
Protecting Medicare for senior citizens
55
30
15
58
52
Creating good paying jobs for American workers
Making sure that all Americans have access to
affordable health insurance
50
16
50
50
55
45
Cleaning up corruption in gov't
48
52
44
Cracking down on the outsourcing of American jobs
46
35
19
53
39
Making sure that wealthy pay their fair share of taxes
45
35
20
45
45
Keeping Wall Street in check
44
35
21
44
43
Deporting immigrants who are in the country illegally
40
50
31
Cracking down on unfair foreign trade
38
39
23
46
30
Reducing the influence of special interests/lobbyists
Making sure that women are treated fairly
in the workplace
Modernizing America's infrastructure
37
39
24
40
34
Maintaining environmental protections
32
Building a wall along the US border with Mexico
29
34
50
30
20
37
15
30
30
36
37
27
36
37
35
38
27
41
29
34
29
35
27
33
44
43
8
15
Persuadable voters believe Trump will help the middle class over the
wealthy, but don’t feel the same about Congressional Republicans
Do you think Donald Trump’s economic policies will favor….?
The wealthy
Overall
Strongly supported DJT
Mixed feelings about DJT
21
16
26
The middle class
All groups equally
33
33
33
44
48
40
The poor
3
Do you think Congressional Republicans’ economic policies will favor….?
The wealthy
Overall
Strongly supported DJT
Mixed feelings about DJT
40
29
50
All groups equally
The middle class
The poor
26
29
24
31
38
25
3
4
Do you think Congressional Democrats’ economic policies will favor….?
The wealthy
Overall
Strongly supported DJT
Mixed feelings about DJT
42
47
38
The middle class
All groups equally
16
14
18
23
20
25
The poor
19
19
19
9
As we start to move voters away from Trump, we have a solid base
of Obama-Trump voters to target in our efforts
Have the things you have seen, read, or heard recently made you feel more confident, or less confident,
that Donald Trump will do a good job?
No Difference LESS Confident
MORE Confident
Overall
65
Strongly supported DJT
85
Mixed feelings about DJT
45
12
23
13
21
34
Do you have confidence, or doubts, that Donald Trump will do a good job as president?
Confidence
Overall
62
Strongly supported DJT
89
Mixed feelings about DJT
35
Somewhere in between
Doubts
9
29
9
49
16
10
Weak supporters in particular seek Congressional leadership that will
act as a check against Donald Trump
When it comes to electing people to Congress, would you prefer to elect?
Check and balance on Trump
Work with Trump
Overall
36
64
Strongly supported DJT
19
81
Mixed feelings about DJT
53
47
11
Cutting benefits, driving up consumer costs, and repealing Obamacare
without replacing it are especially concerning to cautious supporters
Trump Concerns
Concerns me
Strongly
Supp.
Mixed
Feelings
NonCollege
College
27
46
55
50
52
32
35
48
39
47
41
31
46
37
40
36
31
44
39
35
Does not concern me
Just some
He will make too many cuts to important
programs that seniors and working people
depend on, like Medicare/Medicaid
51
The large tax on imports he has proposed
will raise the costs of things that American
consumers buy
41
He will repeal Obamacare and not come up
with a plan to replace it
38
His administration is full of corporate
executives who will put their interests
ahead of working people
38
He will not show the temperament,
judgement, and self-control required…
38
22
40
30
47
37
44
He will get the US involved in foreign wars
38
24
38
32
45
38
39
His policies will go too far in favoring the
wealthy over working people
38
22
40
32
45
36
43
He will reduce America’s credibility around
the world by saying things that aren’t true…
35
44
28
43
34
38
He will go too far in rolling back access to
legal abortion and affordable
comprehensive healthcare for women
33
19
48
29
37
32
37
He will be too close to Putin and won’t
stand up to Putin…
31
21
48
28
34
28
12
39
22
27
21
26
21
To win back cautious Trump supporters, we should tie Trump to GOP policies
that put the interests of the wealthy/businesses before the middle class and
programs they rely on such as Medicare and Social Security
Which one or two of the following outcomes from Trump’s term as president would bother you the most?
If he didn’t “save Medicare and Social Security”
and instead cut benefits for those programs.
If he didn’t “give the power back to the people”
and instead put the interests of wealthy elites
and big businesses first.
31
37
43
33
32
33
If he didn’t “put American jobs first” and instead
made it easier for big businesses to outsource
jobs.
18
16
20
If he didn’t “drain the swamp” and instead put
lobbyists, campaign donors, and special interests
in charge of his administration.
13
If he didn’t “make Mexico pay” for the border
wall between the United States and Mexico, and
instead taxpayers ended up footing the bill.
None of these would bother me
49
48
51
Overall
Strongly Supported DJT
Mixed Feelings about DJT
8
5
2
18
8
13
Drop-off Voters In Depth
14
Democratic-leaning drop-off voters have favorable opinions of their party
and are very unfavorable to Trump and the GOP
Favorability of the Political Parties
Favorable
The
Democratic
Party
Overall
Midterm
Presidential
Overall
The
Republican
Party
Midterm
Presidential
Overall
Donald
Trump
Midterm
Presidential
73
75
70
5
4
7
8
7
9
Neutral/DK
Unfavorable
18
29% very favorable
28% very favorable
17
20
18
15
55% very unfavorable
19
47% very unfavorable
8
7
75% very unfavorable
9
73% very unfavorable
9
8
10
77
81
74
84
86
82
15
Many voters who decided not to vote last minute offered excuses for their
behavior, while those who decided not to vote in advance felt ambivalent or
negative toward both candidates
Timing of Decision to Not Vote & Reason for Not Voting (Presidential Drop-off Voters)
Decided not to vote in
advance of Election Day
36
Some of both
25
“I did not like either candidate”
“I think both candidates were not a good fit for
president”
“I felt everyone was voting the same way I was
in my area so I felt it didn’t matter”
“I voted for Bernie Sanders in the primary; I
couldn’t support Clinton for the general
election”
“It makes no difference”
“Neither candidate was trustworthy”
Decided not to vote at
the last minute
39
“I couldn’t get off work in time to vote”
“I didn’t receive my absentee ballot”
“Tired of voting for the lesser of two evils”
“I wanted more time to think about Trump and
Clinton”
“I got sick and could not vote”
“The polls were too busy and I could not vote”
“I was having trouble walking and I heard that
the lines were long”
16
Drop-off voters – including midterm drop-off voters – say the 2018 elections
will have a bigger impact on their lives than Trump’s election in 2016
Impact of Trump Presidency
Has had a big impact
Overall
32
Midterm
34
Presidential
31
Has had a small impact
Not sure
27
37
4
30
25
Has had no impact
33
4
41
4
Impact of 2018 Election
Will have a big impact
Will have a small impact
Not sure
Overall
46
32
Midterm
45
35
Presidential
46
29
Will have no impact
13
9
9
10
10
15
17
Groups that feel the impact of the 2016 election less strongly – men, millennial
voters, and African American voters – also recognize what is at stake in 2018
Impact of 2018 Election
Will have a big impact Will have a small impact Not sure
Overall
46
Men
41
49
Women
18-34
35-49
60-64
65+
White
African American
Hispanic
53
47
45
32
49
45
44
Will have no impact
32
37
13
32
+14
24
+17
12
17
10
38
+11
8
12
14
21
32
+21
42
+5
30
+15
22
+10
12
18
6
34
+15
26
+19
37
+7
31
8
31
33
34
10
8
13
30
29
9
8
39
Gap
9
5
29
2016
Big Impact
11
18
Midterm drop-offs are slightly more motivated and enthusiastic about
voting than presidential drop-offs, though both favor Democrats in a
generic ballot for Congress
Motivation/Enthusiasm about Voting
Extremely (9-10)/Somewhat (6-8) motivated
Overall
58
Midterm
61
Presidential
56
DK/Refused Neutral/Not motivated (0-5)
22
18
2
23
22
15
1
20
2
Generic Ballot for Congress
Democratic candidate
Overall
80
Midterm
82
Presidential
79
Lean Democratic candidate Undecided/Refused
Republican
7
13
8
6
10
14
19
Unlike Obama-Trump voters, drop-off voters overwhelmingly believe that
Trump and Republicans’ policies favor the wealthy over other groups
Do you think Donald Trump’s economic policies will favor….?
The wealthy
Drop-off voters
92
Obama-Trump voters
21
All groups equally/DK
The middle class The poor
5
33
44
Do you think Congressional Republicans’ economic policies will favor….?
The wealthy
Drop-off voters
90
Obama-Trump voters
40
All groups equally/DK
The middle class The poor
4 4
26
31
Do you think Congressional Democrats’ economic policies will favor….?
The wealthy
Drop-off voters
11
Obama-Trump voters
42
All groups equally/DK
38
16
The middle class
The poor
39
12
23
19
20
Making sure corporations pay their fair share and strengthening infrastructure,
wage laws, and renewable energy are seen as economically beneficial
Economic Policy Effects
Very/Somewhat good
for people like you
Making sure corporations pay their fair share of taxes
Repairing and modernizing our country's infrastructure
Increasing the development of renewable energy
Strengthening wage laws
Cutting interest rates for federal student loans
Providing training, apprentice programs for workers
Raising taxes on millionaires/wealthiest Americans
Reducing taxes on middle class/working families
Offering paid leave/tax credits for child care
Offering free tuition at public colleges/universities
Cracking down on employers not paying workers in full
Closing corporate and Wall Street tax loopholes
Creating a national health plan/single-payer plan
Reducing taxes on small businesses
Leaving the Affordable Care Act in place as is
Establishing path to citizenship for undocumented
Re-negotiating our trade deals with other countries
69
67
64
62
60
57
57
57
53
53
53
45
44
38
34
34
26
Net Good
Bad for people Drop-off Obamalike you Overall Trump
9
18
87
71
Wouldn’t have
much effect/DK
22
7
17
18
25
12
20
+17
79
61
+18
79
61
+18
7
75
61
+14
6
82
81
+1
73
47
+26
63
+8
67
-8
21
71
76
19
22
13
64
24
13
63
10
68
6
71
10
66
12
61
15
59
24
22
33
23
31
34
64
24
24
27
81
20
18
18
+17
25
21
12
72
17
12
25
27
25
+16
89
16
17
Gap
Cutting spending on Medicare and Medicaid, reducing regulations on
businesses, and turning Medicare into a voucher system are seen as the
least beneficial economic policies
Economic Policy Effects
Good for
people like you
Net Bad
Very/Somewhat bad Drop-off Obamafor people like you Overall Trump
Gap
61
75
56
+19
15
46
61
31
+30
14
45
59
42
+17
32
51
25
45
21
+24
20
42
9
+33
14
40
19
+21
Wouldn’t have
much effect/DK
14
Cutting spending on Medicare/Medicaid
15
Reducing regulations on businesses
23
Turning Medicare into a voucher system
15
Allowing construction of more oil/gas pipelines
23
Lowering taxes on American corporations
24
30
Stopping illegal immigration/deporting immigrants
20
38
Increasing taxes on foreign goods
40
10
16
26
19
26
21
22
20
26
22
Drop-off voters are deeply unfavorable to Donald Trump and volunteer
his presidency as the most important issue facing the country today
Most Important issue Facing the Country Today (OPEN END)
Donald Trump
Midterm
Presidential
14
Health care
Economy/jobs
10
Climate/environment
Foreign policy/relations/Russia
5
5
5
Race issues/racism
Income inequality/poverty/homelessness
3
Immigration
3
Divided nation
Education/Schools
Terrorism/National security
3
1
2
5
16
9
7 "Donald Trump's lack of qualifications and lack of
integrity. People in Congress who are supporting
him and not exercising any oversight.“
– Presidential drop-off voter
6
“Health insurance is the biggest problem. We need
more good people in congress.”
– Midterm drop-off voter
4
5
3
6
12
14
17
“The environment which I see as a national security
issue. Climate refugees are going to create a crisis.”
– Presidential drop-off voter
23
Of Trump’s main issue positions, Trump’s health care policies are
the most concerning to drop-off voters
Which two, if any, are the most concerning to you personally about Donald Trump and his administration?
His positions on health care
Midterm
52
Presidential
54
44
His positions on women's rights,
abortion, and gender issues
41
39
His positions on immigration
33
49% among women
58% among women under 50
52% among college-educated white men
50% college-educated white women
49% among Hispanic voters
43% among millennials
30
His positions on foreign
policy and terrorism
His positions on taxes and the budget
57% among voters 50+
57% among non-college voters
61% among AA voters
31
24
26
24
Reaching Persuasion & Turnout Targets
25
Four Key Points on How to Reach Target Voters
1.
Social Media feeds, especially Facebook, came up as a critical source of
news across all focus groups, persuasion and turnout.
2.
Strong Obama-Trump voters consume a greater amount of partisan news
than soft Obama-Trump voters.
•
•
3.
Strong Obama-Trump voters are also much more “tuned in” than soft
supporters and turnout targets
•
4.
55% of strong supporters are regular talk radio listeners (vs. 36% of soft supporters)
43% of strong supporters list Fox News as a key sources (vs. 34% of soft supporters)
36% of strong supporters follow DC news very closely vs. 19% of soft supporters
Obama-Trump voters were more skeptical than average focus group
respondents and didn’t open up until we told them they were among
fellow Trump voters.
26