fulltext

Restructuring and Employment Change
in Sparsely Populated Areas:
Examples from Northern Sweden and Finland
Linda Lundmark
Akademisk avhandling
Kulturgeografiska institutionen
Umeå universitet
GERUM 2006:2
GERUM – kulturgeografi 2006:2
Kulturgeografiska institutionen
Umeå universitet
SE - 901 87 UMEÅ
Department of Social and Economic Geography
Umeå University
SE – 901 87 UMEÅ, Sweden
Tel: + 46 (0)90 786 71 53
Fax: + 46 (0)90 786 63 59
http://www.umu.se/soc_econ_geography/
E-mail: [email protected]
Cover: Photos by Anders Esselin, FjällMISTRA
ISSN 1402-5205
ISBN 91-975696-5-8
© Linda Lundmark
Print & Media, Umeå 2006
Acknowledgements
When I started out my PhD studies I thought I would never make it this far. To
be honest, even now when I have reached the end and hold my work in my hand I
still cannot believe that this is my thesis! However, I have not been alone in this
process and the thesis would not have been possible to write without the help and
support from some very special people. Kerstin Westin, thank you for your
patience, your good ideas and thank you for asking the right questions. Ulf
Wiberg, thank you for positive feedback and for pointing out the problems as
well, not least regarding the figures. I want to thank Bruno Jansson for long
conversations about manuscripts and projects but also for becoming a real friend
during this time.
To all of you who have put effort into reading my texts, thank you. Especially I
would like to thank Örjan Pettersson and Dieter Müller for improving the quality
of my thesis by reading early versions of it and giving me useful comments. I also
owe thanks to Stefan Gössling for valuable comments at the final seminar. Peter
Fredman and Klas Sandell, thank you for good cooperation. Thank you to all you
other doctoral students for conversations about this and that and thank you for
being good ‘fellow travellers’. I also owe my gratitude to Lotta, Margit and Erik
who have helped me with many practical issues.
Thank you, Einar Holm for turning arguments around and for taking the
discussion beyond the ordinary. You once said that the North of Sweden should
not be considered a problem. Instead, it should be regarded as the forefront of a
development soon showing in the rest of Sweden and Europe as well. Therefore
the difficulties now facing the sparsely populated areas in Sweden should be used
as an opportunity to assess what the best way forward is. This really motivates the
investment in time and money in regional development and research in these
areas. Speaking of which, I have myself had the opportunity to reap the benefits
of EU-funding in the project BALACE – Global Change Vulnerabilities in the
Barents Region: Linking Arctic Natural Resources, Climate Change and
Economies. Furthermore I have had the opportunity to be involved in the
national program MountainMISTRA. I have also benefited significantly from
i
scholarships I received from JC Kempes minnes stipendiefond, Gösta Skoglunds
fond and Wallenbergstiftelsen. Without these scholarships my numerous trips to
conferences had not been possible.
I now realise that working with this thesis has been all other than boring. Not only
do I find my subject interesting and challenging, I have also had the pleasure of
being surrounded by fun and professional colleagues. But, however much I have
needed people at work there are some people I really cannot live without.
Therefore, the expressed gratitude to my family is in order: Thank you Stefan
Andersson, my parents Gunnel and Ingemar Lundmark and my sister Maria
Lundmark and thank you all my friends for being supportive and understanding
during this fantastic, fun, overwhelming and sometimes scary journey.
Linda Lundmark
Umeå
April 2006
ii
CONTENTS
Acknowledgements
i
1. INTRODUCTION
1
1.1 Purpose of the thesis
4
1.2 Outline of the thesis and delimitations
5
1.3 Sparsely populated areas and the concept of the rural
6
2. PROCESSES OF RESTRUCTURING
9
2.1 Tourism
11
2.2 Globalisation
12
2.3 Adaptive capacity
14
2.4 Core-periphery relationships
15
3. RESTRUCTURING, MOBILITY AND LANDSCAPE
UTILISATION
19
3.1 Commodification of the landscape
19
3.2 Landscape utilisation and the values-action nexus
21
4. METHODS AND MATERIAL
25
5. PAPER SUMMARIES
I. Economic Restructuring into Tourism in the
Swedish Mountain Range
iii
29
II. Mobility, Migration and Seasonal Tourism Employment:
Evidence from Sweden
30
III. The Role of National Parks and Protected Areas for Tourism,
Forestry and Forest Sector Employment in Swedish Mountain Municipalities
31
IV. Forest-related employment in the European North:
Current trends and future development
33
6. RESTRUCTURING AND EMPLOYMENT CHANGE
35
6.1 What are the potentials for forestry and forest-related employment
development in the areas now and in the future?
35
6.2 What potential does the tourism sector have to contribute to a
restructuring of the economy?
36
6.3 Can the employment changes be related to localisation changes,
changes in population distribution, work place distribution
and migration patterns and hence general restructuring?
38
6.4 Implications on regional policy
41
7. CONCLUSIONS
43
8. SUMMARY
47
9. SAMMANFATTNING
51
10. REFERENCES
55
Papers I-IV
iv
1. INTRODUCTION
The process of globalisation has become an important issue within economic research and research on labour market restructuring during the past 30 years or so
(cf. Dicken, 1998). This is largely because of the realisation that the economies of
firms and businesses are increasingly linked together in global networks, and are
less dependent on national and regional constraints (Neil and Tykkyläinen 1998).
The globalisation process is thus interconnected to changes in the economy and
labour market, mobility patterns and social change resulting in the restructuring of
space (Tykkyläinen et al., 1997; Neil and Tykkyläinen, 1998; Paniagua, 2002).
Furthermore, decreasing transportation costs and an increasing use of information
and communication technologies (ICT) stimulate increased mobility of products,
people and information (Hägerstrand 1991; Frändberg et al., 2005). Paradoxically,
the globalisation process has intensified the process of geographical concentration
and agglomeration of economic activity, as well as increasing and changing the
mobility of people (Scott and Storper, 2003; Hall 2005).
The process of restructuring has varying geographical effects, depending on local
or regional contexts and structures. Wallerstein (1979) argues, from a sociological
standpoint, that the new international division of labour is an outcome of the
globalisation process, a dynamic process also connected to a new pattern of geographical specialisation. The geographical specialisation, in which countries have
different roles in the global economic process, is closely linked to the concepts of
core and periphery. Although Wallerstein’s ideas are largely based on historic evidence at a national level, the general framework by which the periphery, as the
supplier of raw material and the buyer of consumer products developed and produced in the core, is still valid in many respects. Although on a national scale the
relevance of core-periphery relationship has faded, the complexity of global
change has made the concepts more relevant on a regional scale. The general implication of Wallerstein’s framework is that there are some locations and contexts
that are more favoured in the global process of restructuring than others. Geographically, nations like Sweden and Finland could be placed in the semi-periphery, and the sparse demographic structure is a characteristic that makes them dif-
1
ferent from many other European countries. Mountain areas are seldom at the
core of a nation’s economic or political system, placing the sparsely populated
areas which are the focus of this thesis in the periphery (Westholm, 2003; Nordregio 2004:1). Regarding the global market, the sparsely populated areas in the north
of Sweden and Finland are all peripheral, because they are heavily reliant on export in order to gain viable economic returns.
Employment in these sparsely populated areas has traditionally been dependent on
export-oriented primary production and, increasingly over recent decades, on the
public sector. However, changes in the economic priorities at national level, such
as decreases in public sector spending, are causing a decline in work opportunities
in societies where the dependence on public sector employment has generally
been high (Neil and Tykkyläinen, 1998). A lack of entrepreneurial tradition and
poor availability of business support services have inhibited the start-up of new
enterprises. Private sector services need a certain market volume to be profitable,
and the small, decreasing population is a growing problem especially since about
40% of those employed are in the public sector, compared to 34% in Sweden as a
whole (Wiberg et al., 2003). The areas also experience major constraints due to the
remoteness to main markets, not only internationally but also nationally.
Continued depopulation in combination with an imbalanced age structure has become a serious problem in sparsely populated areas in Sweden and Finland.
Depopulation is a complicated process and the distorted population structure and
ageing population is a result of imbalanced in-and out-migration patterns over a
period of 40 to 50 years. This development is aggravated by the drop in births due
to both social changes and the ageing population. This process leads to a reduction of the labour force as well as qualitative changes in terms of education, which
has a negative impact on the conditions for economic activities, the balance
between supply and demand in the local labour market and the quality of welfare
services (SOU 2000:87; Persson, 2003). More than 30 years ago, Whitby et al.
(1974) argued that many rural communities in the UK were approaching a social
and economic threshold at which vital community life and basic services could no
longer be sustained. From the Nordic horizon, this development also began in the
2
1960s, with heavy urbanisation (Johannisson et al., 1989). This has caused poor
accessibility to services and has left people with few choices. This does not only
contribute to out-migration; it also makes it unattractive for people to move to
these areas. With this background there have been a multitude of governmental
measures at different levels, targeting the problems encountered. In recent decades
many of these measures have been directed towards tourism, because of the
amenities present in these areas which could be attractive for tourists and used for
the development of tourism.
Out-migration of rural population, it is argued, is counteracted by tourism development through job and income generation for the local population (Gill, 1991;
Müller, 2006). Furthermore, tourism forms an attraction to in-migrants because it
offers service-oriented jobs as well as opportunities to start businesses (Findlay et
al., 2000; Paniagua, 2002). In a longer time perspective, tourism could also help
create a positive image of the rural (Müller, 2006). Connected to this development
is also that the view of the economic landscape has gone from extractionist to
amenity-oriented, or as some say, from production-oriented to consumption-oriented (Ilbery and Bowler, 1998).
Based on this short introduction, a brief review can be made: First, traditional
economic activities are no longer viable employment alternatives in many countries and regions. In the case of Sweden and Finland, neither the forest and agricultural sectors nor the manufacturing industry are likely to recur as the important
employers they once were. Second, the positive links between economic change,
land use change and the general changes in attitudes and values towards the landscape have been taken for granted in policy as well as in academic debate. This has
happened especially regarding mobility issues and tourism. Third, however, the
outcome of the economic changes cannot automatically be interpreted as being
equal to restructuring because change and development are continuous processes
(see Chapter 2). Fourth, a great deal of money is invested by the government at
different geographical levels in order for the sparsely populated areas to develop
and adjust to global processes. Furthermore, in addition to the difficulties these
areas already face in terms of population decline and labour market change, the
3
added external factor of climate change makes the situation more unpredictable.
This latter point is also applicable to tourism but is not discussed here.
1.1 Purpose of the thesis
The purpose of this thesis is to examine the ongoing restructuring and its impacts on sparsely
populated areas in Sweden and Finland. The principal theme is the changes on the
labour market, and especially in tourism and forest-related employment. While the
forest sector and forestry continue to play an important role on a national and
global scale, their local economic importance has faded. Local ownership has decreased and the production of forest products has become a multinational endeavour. The globalisation process also affects tourism, where recent development
has been based on more non-local premises than it has in the past (Saarinen,
2003). This motivates the choice of employment as a measurement of change in
the local community and as an indicator for restructuring.
Forest-related employment is chosen as an example of a mature, traditional sector
that has gone from being labour intensive to capital intensive. The successful
adaptation to the new market has meant that the industry has gone through crucial
changes in order to stay in the market. This also explains why it has remained a
vital part of the economy. The county of Norrbotten in Sweden and the county of
Lappi in Finland both have a long tradition of forestry, forest industry and related
activities and are good examples of how employment is changing. Tourism, on the
other hand, is an example of an industry that in many ways is seen as a “future”
industry, with hopes of social and economic development attached to it. Because
tourism is a labour-intensive sector it is perceived as an effective measure to create
new employment and to hold unemployment rates down (Jussila and Järviluoma,
1998). The Swedish mountain range provides a useful case-study context, showing
many of the signs of economic restructuring towards the tourism sector (Heberlein and Vuorio, 1999; Fredman et al., 2001; Jansson, 2001; Nilsson, 2001; Heberlein et al., 2002; Müller, 2002a). Analyses of the potential for development of forest-related employment in the research areas now and in the future, as well as
analyses of the tourism sector’s contribution to restructuring of the economy,
have been undertaken.
4
1.2 Outline of the thesis and delimitations
The thesis is based on four articles and includes an introductory section. The introductory section comprises a brief account of global processes of restructuring,
labour market restructuring and the local restructuring processes. Furthermore,
some concepts and theoretical issues are discussed. A brief account of methodology and material is presented. The last part of the introductory section is a discussion and conclusion of the results presented in the articles that follow.
Article I Economic Restructuring into Tourism in the Swedish Mountain Range concentrates
on analyses of the different traits and variations of the labour market in the Swedish mountain range, especially considering the significance of the development in
the tourism sector. The study period is 1985 to 1999.
Article II Mobility, Migration and Seasonal tourism employment: Evidence from Sweden further elaborates on the findings from Article I. With the purpose of examining the
connection between the temporal labour mobility in tourism and permanent migration, two Swedish mountain municipalities, Åre and Malung, are selected as
case municipalities. 1991-2001 is the time period investigated.
Article III The Role of National Parks and Protected Areas for Tourism, Forestry and Forest
sector Employment in Swedish Mountain Municipalities. In this article, a unification of
the two themes of forest-related employment and tourism employment has been
made through the relationship between protected areas and employment in 15
mountain municipalities. The time frame considered is 1991-2001.
Article IV Forest-related employment in the European North: current trends and future development. In this article, reflections on how different levels of forest growth as a result of climate change affect the number of employed are addressed, and how employment varies due to differing economic and institutional situations in the case
study areas is studied. The time frame is the period 2001-2050.
5
Articles I-III are limited to the Swedish mountain municipalities, while the study
area in Article IV is limited to the counties of Norrbotten in Sweden and Lappi in
Finland (Figure 1). The geographical limitations have been chosen due to the
nature of the projects in which they are elaborated. However, the unifying factor is
that, although they are geographically different, the areas were selected primarily
on the same basis: These are areas that are sparsely populated and have negative
demographic and socioeconomic development.
1.3 Sparsely populated areas and the concept of the rural
In the Swedish and Finnish contexts, ‘rural’ must be understood against the
population background, which is extremely sparse compared to the English
speaking countries from which many of the descriptions of the rural originate (see
for example Hoggart 1990; Halfacree and Boyle, 1993). In terms of the economic
landscape, activities that were formerly connected primarily to rural areas have become economically concentrated in the urbanised areas of a sparsely populated
region (Johannisson et al., 1989). Employment in forestry and other forest-related
activities can take place in rural areas, but the refining of timber often takes place
in the urban centres along the coast. This also has ramifications in the choice of
study areas, where the larger population centres, mainly along the Norrbotten and
Lappi coasts and the municipal central places, are included. With respect to the
areas in this study, a relevant theme in the definitions of rural is that it also includes some reference to the peripheral and marginal location, both in the global
trade networks and within the nation (Wiberg, 1994). For a more in-depth discussion of the rural in a Swedish context see, for example, Amcoff (2000).
6
Figure 1. Case study areas
7
8
2. THE PROCESSES OF RESTRUCTURING
The theoretical arguments diverge as to how development, change and restructuring should be interpreted. Development as a concept has changed considerably
over time. In the 1950s and 1960s it was strongly connected to economic measurements, while today it includes social, political and environmental aspects as well
as economic characteristics (Telfer, 2002). In discussing regional development
theories, the concept of clusters has become important for regional policy development and implementation (Porter 1990; Malmberg, 2002), but the role of the
state in the competitiveness of its regions has also been emphasised in recent
theories of development (Tykkyläinen et al., 1997). Furthermore, theories on regional development have become more holistic in character and themes including
alternative development and sustainable development are now in focus.
Godde et al. (2000) argue that development in its simplest interpretation can be
equal to change. In adopting such a framework it is accepted that development
does not always entail positive things. In terms of regional development, Coe et al.
(2004:469) conceptualize it as:
…a dynamic outcome of the complex interaction between territorialized relational networks and global production networks within the context of changing regional governance structures.
With regard to change and restructuring, Hoggart and Paniagua (2001) argue the
need to move away from the idea that change is equal to restructuring. They criticise the use of restructuring as a concept without being aware that this should entail change that is different from other change, and thus “…restructuring is not a
change in one sector that has multiplier effects on other sectors” (ibid.:42). Restructuring
should entail qualitative changes in social structures and other aspects of life, not
only quantitative measurable changes. The definition used in this thesis is that,
while development and change could be formulated as a policy goal, with measurable effects and impacts, restructuring is the outcome linked to such policy efforts.
Simultaneously, the process of restructuring is linked to global policy frameworks
and economic processes.
9
Adopting the framework of Neil and Tykkyläinen (1998), mountain municipalities
in Sweden are examples of geographically peripheral areas that have undergone
employment change and subsequent restructuring through reduced public spending and reduced importance of resource extraction and refinement. Tourism, then,
is an example of a sectoral shift from the dominating industry and public sector
employment towards a more diversified economy in which both tourism and traditional sectors are represented. To further draw on the framework by Neil and
Tykkyläinen (1998), forestry and related industries also play a part in the restructuring process. Although the significance of forest resource extraction and refinement on employment has decreased, it is still one of the most important export
products in the northern economies of Sweden and Finland.
There are several interlinked processes that contribute to the general restructuring
of society. These can be summarised in three broad groups linked to economic
processes, demographic processes and social processes which are global as well as
local in character. The development and characteristics of these different processes are not universal but are instead distinctive to different contexts and time
periods.
Restructuring is connected to an economic process in which change from one
sector to another is dominant (Pettersson, 2002). In this case, employment is affected by the shift from goods production to service provision. In a rural context,
this process has been described in terms of a shift from the productive to the
post-productive (Wilson, 2001 provides an extensive overview), the industrial to
the post-industrial (Dahms and McComb, 1999; Bianchi, 2000) or the fordist to
the post-fordist (Lafferty and van Fossen, 2001) economic paradigms. These
changes do not have to be negative. Instead, opportunities for new, different
businesses could open up, connecting the local community to another wider arena
with different sets of opportunities and constraints, perhaps less vulnerable to
change (Lindgren, 1997; Neil and Tykkyläinen, 1998; Paniagua, 2002). To improve
competitiveness, stimulation of the economic climate to make conditions favourable to start new businesses is undertaken. Encouragement of entrepreneurship
10
and small business development leads to diversification of the economy and reduced unemployment, at least in theory.
2.1 Tourism
Tourism is seen as having an important role in fighting unemployment problems
because it is a labour-intensive activity with low rationalization possibilities requiring a wide range of skills. It is also perceived as having low barriers to entry,
employing existing, underutilized fixed infrastructure and human capital as well as
placing low demands on public service (Shaw and Williams, 1994; Laws, 1995; Slee
et al. 1997). However, Gunn (1994:51) argues that:
The availability of adequately trained workers in an area can have considerable influence on tourism development.[…] The popular view that the untrained can perform all
tasks needed in the diversity of tourism development is false.
This means that when the economic base of an area changes, those taken out of
employment are not truly available for tourism employment unless appropriate
training is available. In general, local labour markets in sparsely populated areas
cannot support the expansion of tourism without relying on temporarily imported
labour. The seasonality of parts of the tourism industry and the small scale of
many resort labour markets therefore generates some geographical implications in
relation to the source areas of seasonal labour supply (Ball, 1989). When tourism
expands, local labour will have to be supplemented by recruitment from the more
populous parts of the country, at least during the season. The impact of the seasonal character of tourism work is dependent on whether the labour is local or
from elsewhere, i.e. in-migrants (Shaw and Williams, 1994; Huse et al. 1998). If the
work force is in-migrated, this means that the unemployment that so often appears during the off-peak season will be diminished with the out-migration of the
seasonal workers. However, the negative impact of seasonality is unemployment
during off-season among locals, unless there are other alternatives during that time
of year.
Seasonality thus presents a problem for regional development based on tourism.
Tourism employment is dependent on both institutionalized seasonality, by the
11
regulation of vacation length and time of year, and natural seasonality, which is
linked to the demand on seasonally defined products like skiing (Hall and Page,
2002). Therefore, the need to prolong the seasons to increase the quality of employment has been discussed in several studies (Chazaud et al., 1991; Baum and
Hagen, 1999). Strategies for expanding existing seasons in destinations in peripheral areas range from arranging events and festivals, market diversification and
product diversification to structural and environmental responses (Baum and
Hagen, 1999).
Tourism labour market dynamics are thus affected by the scale and rate of tourism
development (Hall and Williams, 2002). Employment and development are also
affected by form of tourism as well as location and place-specific characteristics.
Different parts of the tourism industry are dissimilar in their organisational outline
in terms of fordist/post-fordist employment patterns. Airline companies are typically fordist with low labour turnover, employment security and high wages, while
the hotel and restaurant workforce is largely reliant on post-fordist structures with
high numbers of women, casual, part-time and younger workers with high labour
turnover (Lafferty and van Fossen, 2001). Also, different forms of tourism give
diverse geographical and economic relationships. Therefore, the way forward in
rural development is sometimes discussed in terms of soft or sustainable tourism.
The concept of Soft Tourism emerged in the European Alps in the 1980s (Snowdon
et al. 2000). It comprises small-scale, locally owned businesses which build on resources that are distinctive to local areas and are embedded in the local economy,
for example farm tourism and ecotourism (Sharpley, 2002a). Since soft tourism is
more embedded in the local economy, it generates higher local income and employment multipliers per unit of visitor spend, although spend per head is higher
for other forms of tourism (Slee et al., 1995, 1997; Lewis, 2001). Although tourism
does not necessarily contribute to creating new jobs, Müller (2002) suggests that it
might help maintain and secure existing jobs.
2.2 Globalisation
The effects of globalisation on the restructuring process are complex, and include
local to international levels and range from personal relations to institutional and
12
national networks. An increase in the use of communication technology, cheaper
and faster transportation, integration and liberalisation of international economic
cooperation are just a few examples of developments in which the market has become increasingly global in terms of supply and demand (Taylor, 1989; Neil and
Tykkyläinen, 1998). This new marketplace contributes to the formation of new cooperations and networks. In the case of forest-based communities, this has meant
that the technological development and rapid adoption of machinery and ICT
have resulted in competitive advantages for the Northern countries. For a long
time, the forest industry has also concentrated more along the coast (Layton and
Pashkevich, 2003), which is an example of how the industry has changed in order
to accomplish economies of scale and to retain the competitive advantage. However, the same technology, machinery and communication technology, has also
reduced the need for expensive labour, causing unemployment (Neil and Tykkyläinen, 1998).
The processes of globalisation have paradoxically emphasised the continued importance of the local as the base for economic activity. This increased realisation
that different economic settings are not equally probable to develop economic
growth has renewed the interest for the old concepts of agglomeration economies
(Weber, 1909) and industrial districts (Marshall, 1920) starting with the work by
Porter (1990). Recent literature concerning regional development has also placed
significant emphasis on local institutional structures and their capacity to ‘hold
down’ the global (cf. Coe et al., 2004). For Porter, location continues to be the basis for the development of strong economies, as long as a region can maintain its
exclusive critical mass, which is crucial to the development of local advantages and
agglomerations (Scott and Storper, 2003). Porter argues that:
…the enduring competitive advantages in a global economy lie increasingly in local things
- knowledge, relationships, motivation - that distant rivals cannot match (Porter, 1998).
13
2.3 Adaptive capacity
Neither environmental nor social phenomena can be fully understood at either the
global scale, which is too general, or the local scale, which is too particular (Hogan
and Mandarola Jr, 2005). This is because both the location-specific characteristics
and the global economic and institutional setting in which an economic system is
found are important for the development in a sector. Furthermore, the context of
a specific location has implications on the way a society can adapt to, or cope
with, global processes of change. It should be noted, though, that adaptive capacity is dynamic and varies when local and global scale conditions changes. In terms
of vulnerability and adaptive capacity, the communities that identify threats as well
as opportunities early have the best potential for good adaptive capacity (Persson
et al., 2003).
As previously outlined, there are problems attached to restructuring in the sparsely
populated areas. It can even be argued that these areas are experiencing a crisis.
However, it is not the decline in traditional employment that forms the restructuring ‘crises’, Drummond et al. (2000) argue. The crises develop because the response to change and development is inadequate or incorrect. This response varies between different geographical levels as well as between individuals and companies and firms. How well different areas perform is strongly linked to the concepts of vulnerability and adaptive capacity. There are also measures and steps that
can be taken at various administrative levels. A distinction can be made between
planned and spontaneous adaptation, whereby the spontaneous adaptation is a
built-in response to change without the interference of public policy or planned
action for future change. Planned adaptation refers to deliberate public policy
measures (Carter and Kankaanpä, 2003). All forms of adaptation can be either reactive or anticipatory.
Within a global context, the concept of vulnerability has been theorised in recent
years by the UN International Panel on Climate Change (IPCC, 2001) in an effort
to facilitate studies that help mitigate the adverse effects of climate change in particular. However, this concept is also useful in the study of restructuring since it is
clear that sparsely populated areas are vulnerable to changes in the global division
14
of labour and have less adaptive capacity than do other regions and areas, as seen
from a regional development perspective. The sensitivity of localities and the certain characteristics separating areas from each other has been neglected in most
policy.
2.4 Core-periphery relationships
The periphery may be defined in terms of internal peripheries, which are peripheral regions in a national context, and international peripheries, which are countries that are considered peripheral in a global context (Weaver, 1998). The study
areas presented here are all peripheral in both a national and global perspective.
Economically, a peripheral position in relation to the main national as well as international markets entails higher transport and communication costs (Dicken,
1998). Companies engaged in the processing of raw material in the case areas experience relatively higher raw-material and transportation costs as well as difficulties in bringing their production to markets outside the local community. This
makes them less attractive for investment, in terms of both companies outside the
area and investment from the multinational companies that are present there
(Kortelainen, 1998).
Christaller (1963) argued in the context of core-periphery that tourism can be a
means of obtaining economic development in peripheral regions with wealthy
tourists travelling from the metropolitan centre to the periphery, bringing foreign
exchange and creating jobs. At attractive tourist destinations such as the mountains, tourism can act as a redistribution channel for capital from the wealthier urban areas to the periphery. Based on the ideas of adaptive capacity, there are reasons to believe that some areas in the periphery are better equipped and therefore
able to benefit from tourism in the way suggested by Christaller. This also underlines the problems in doing so for others. Tourism as an engine for growth has
been challenged in recent years (Fleisher and Felsenstein, 2000; Paniagua, 2002;
Ribeiro and Marques, 2002; Sharpley and Telfer, 2002). Already in 1979 de Kadt,
in the context of developing countries, argued that tourism, although it generates
some positive economic effects, could also have drawbacks on the social and cultural climates.
15
Tourism and its spatial structure are strongly embedded in the core-periphery
systems from the international to the local level (Christaller, 1963; Weaver, 1998).
Seasonality and regional differentiation are inherent in tourism and tourism employment (Williams and Montanari, 1995; Milne and Ateljevic, 2001; Hall and
Page, 2002). On the national level most of the tourists, or consumers, live in metropolitan areas or core regions with high population density. But it is not only the
consumers that are from the metropolitan areas; the ownership of businesses is
also increasingly concentrated to urban core regions. The regional impacts can
therefore not be evaluated without a place and space-specific research framework
and an understanding of the context and spatial scales.
With increasing horizontal (hotel chains buying smaller hotel establishments) and
vertical (hotel chains buying air companies) integration within a global context,
there is a fear that multinational corporations will have more control over local
development than will the locals themselves (Sharpley, 2002a). Although discussed
mostly in developing countries, there are examples of this development in the
tourism businesses in the Swedish mountain range as well. In his report on tourism in the Tärna Mountains, Arell (2002) points specifically to the fact that large
non-local companies are buying tourism infrastructure like bars, hotels and ski lifts
and are then allowing local entrepreneurs to run the businesses according to conditions the non-local companies dictate. This means that the power relations are
being disrupted since the local actors are dependent and restrained by someone
from the outside. The power connotations of a core-periphery perspective have
also been shown in the case of second-home owners in the Swedish mountain
municipalities where a large part of the owners are well educated and have high
incomes, in contrast to the population in general (Müller, 2005). There are those
who suggest that tourism has become a new way for the core to systematically exploit and extract wealth from the periphery (Weaver, 1998; Telfer, 2002). This argument is supported by others who have termed tourism “a new kind of sugar”
(Finney and Watson, 1975) and a “cash-crop” (Newby, 1988), albeit not in the
Nordic context.
16
As argued in Lundmark and Marjavaara (2005), the theoretical framework developed by Ullman (1956) to deal with interaction in the economic landscape could
partly explain the lack of demand in some areas despite the apparent attractions.
Ullman’s theory incorporates what he termed intervening opportunities, which means
that some places must exert a proportionately larger attraction in order to overcome the friction of distance and possible intervening opportunities. This means
that as distance increases, the attraction must be stronger to offer the additional
uniqueness or diversity needed (pull) to attract visitors who would otherwise consider another destination closer to home (Wolfe, 1951; Prideaux, 2002). This is
unlikely to occur if a place merely replicates similar attractions closer to the core
population centres. An appropriate transport infrastructure is crucial to interaction, and under-developed networks are a potential barrier to travel (Prideaux,
2002).
17
18
3. RESTRUCTURING, MOBILITY AND LANDSCAPE UTILISATION
In the Nordic countries the attachment to the rural with its sparse settlement
structure is strong, even though the majority of the population lives in urban areas. This is due to the relatively late urbanization in Sweden, where half a century
ago more than 50% of the population lived in rural areas (Statistics Sweden, 2001).
This means that many people living in urban areas have been brought up in rural
and sparsely populated areas to which they are still attached (Nordin, 1993). Ideas
of `Utopian Ruralia´ (Lundgren, 1974) have been said to be a lifestyle motive for
mobility. Passive utilisation and domination of the landscape, by which the landscape is viewed as a museum to conserve and control (Sandell, 1995, 2005), is the
predominant view of urban residents who see the ‘rural’ or sparsely populated areas as representing a landscape ideal, in which preconceptions of the qualities in
the countryside are important for their decision to visit the area, buy a second
home or even move there (Dahms and McComb, 1999; Findlay et al., 2000;
Müller, 2006).
3.1 Commodification of the landscape
The economic transition towards service is connected to processes of change in
the value systems in relation to the landscape. This has meant that the rural is increasingly created as a place to consume (Cloke, 1996; Ilbery and Bowler, 1998;
Hoggart and Paniagua, 2001). The post-modern trend towards the commodification of environments of and for pleasure has been a natural consequence of economic affluence which has stimulated the desire for ‘good quality’ leisure-orientated lifestyles, where focus is on individualism and consumption of pleasure
(Urry, 1990). Consumption has become an important social and cultural marker
(Sharpley, 2002b). This development has consequences for the way the rural can
be experienced, bought and sold.
There are two general strands identified in literature regarding how to interpret the
motives behind the consumption of the rural. Either the consumption and motivation are living a dream or experiencing a fantasy in order to escape from the real
world (Cohen, 1984; Chaplin, 1999), or the motives concern the desire to experi-
19
ence something real and authentic (MacCannell, 1999; Cypher and Higgs, 2006).
However, the commodity as such can be the same irrespective of the motives for
consumption. Knowledge acquired through learning, experience and perception
produces an image of a specific place. These images could be ‘organic’, in that that
they are produced from factual sources like pictures and texts describing them; this
is thus what you ‘know’ about a place. Images can also be ‘induced’, that is suggested to us in deliberate attempts to influence the consumer (Gunn, 1997).
The staging of a place and the manufacturing of an experience are strongly linked
to the social construction of the rural, sometimes referred to as the countryside, as
well as to the consumption of landscapes, and:
In an increasingly urban society, the visitor, whose experience is disconnected from the
working life of the countryside, is offered an easily digestible and interpreted version of it.
The countryside is now a commodity available for commercial exploitation Duckers and
Davies (1990:164) through Hoggart and Paniagua (2001).
In this respect, the staged authenticity or ‘disneyfication’ of tourism supply reflects
the societal trend described as the commodification of experience (MacCannell,
1999; Cypher and Higgs, 2006). Hence, how people perceive the ‘product’ is important in influencing the action taken, either as a tourist or a migrant.
A general framework for understanding the different views on the landscape related to the concepts of nature as a provider of raw material and nature as an
amenity has been developed by Sandell (1995, 2005). His framework was developed primarily to understand recreation and tourism strategies, but has implications on the way the landscape as a resource is used and interpreted. He describes
the approach as being connected to four separate ‘eco strategies’ in which different elements are in focus. The strategies are either concentrated on the local landscape or directed towards large-scale dominance and functional specialization of
the landscape. These two can then be separated further by the way the landscape
is used, either passively or actively (ibid.). The passive use of the landscape is connected to activities that do not interfere with the landscape, for example viewing,
admiring or exploring it. This is in sharp contrast to the strategies developed for
20
the purpose of using the landscape either for production and consumption of recreational and tourism activities or, from the point of view of the forestry, as a resource from which to extract raw materials.
3.2 Landscape utilisation and the values-action nexus
Parallel to the change in the conceptualisation of the landscape in terms of consumption and production, the actual use of the economic landscape has altered.
There are several reasons for the changed role of natural resources and the way
they influence economic growth. Departing from the example of the US, KwangKoo et al. (2005) and Marcouiller and Clendenning (2004) argue that the globalisation and increasing competition on the world market have led to decreasing
profit in resource-extracting industries in industrialised countries in general. The
orientation towards the service sectors has also meant that the demand for raw
material in the West is not increasing as much as it has in the past. Furthermore,
there has been an increased awareness among the population, primarily residing in
the urban areas, of the environment.
Two changes have occurred during the past century in relation to the attitudes and
values towards the environment: First, the general understanding of the environment as being vulnerable to human activities has resulted in restrictions on resource-extracting activities. Second, a perceived need to preserve both ecological
and cultural landscapes in reserves and parks has become evident. These developments have had an impact on forestry, where increased environmental protection and regulations have been found by foresters to be too extensive (Keskitalo
and Lundmark, 2006). Forest-related employment is still seen as important in
some communities, although in reality the share of those employed has decreased
in importance over a long period of time. It is therefore not surprising that the
concerns about the prioritisation of the environment over the economic and social
well-being of the local community are expressed in resource-based communities
(Skontoft and Solem, 2001; Argent, 2002; Hiedanpää, 2002; McCarthy et al., 2002;
Sandell, 2005). To come to terms with this, there have been attempts in recent
years to increase the possibilities to conduct economic activities in and near
protected areas to help local economic development in Sweden (Regeringens
21
proposition 2004/05:56) as well as elsewhere (MacCarthy et al., 2002; Eagles,
2003). However, studies show that many are still convinced that it is not possible
to combine protection with economic activity (Hiedanpää, 2002; Powell et al.,
2002; Sandell, 2005).
Linked to the change from a production-oriented society to a consumption-oriented one is that the motives for action, such as moving and changing jobs, have
been altered as well (Dahms and McComb, 1999; Gershuny, 2000; Dredge, 2001;
Che, 2003). Lifestyle and amenity considerations are major contributors to rural
repopulation and economic change in post-industrialised economies (Dahms and
McComb, 1999), especially since it has been shown that employment is not the
single most important factor for migration (Ullman, 1954; Walmsley et al., 1998;
Garvill et al., 2000; Paniagua, 2002; Lundholm et al., 2004;). A reification of nature, nostalgia for past lifestyles and landscapes, real or imagined, as well as a
growth of environmentalism, has taken place (Hall and Williams, 2002). These
value shifts have also influenced lifestyle migration, both labour-related and retirement-related, which in sum accounts for a major counter-urbanisation trend in
the West (Walmsley et al., 1998; Hall and Williams, 2002;). Activities and personal
interests (Tillberg Mattsson, 2004) as well as culture (Wikhall, 2002) have been
shown to have significance for counter-urbanisation tendencies in the Swedish
context, as well as quality of life issues (Findlay et al., 2000).
Mobility and migration are separated by time and space in a continuum, but the
boundaries between the two are not easy to define (Bell and Ward, 2000; Hall,
2005). Mobility has come to be understood as more temporary than migration, but
the issue of what is permanent makes this definition difficult and interest in the
mobility-migration nexus has been expressed during recent years (Bell and Ward,
2000; Williams and Hall, 2000; Müller, 2002b; Butler, 2003; Hall, 2005). This
development differs from early work by for example Wolfe (1967), who equates
tourism and migration. However, permanent migration is ‘usually defined spatially as
movement across the boundary of an areal unit’ (Boyle et al., 1998: 34). Furthermore, ‘migration is generally conceived as a single transition, involving a lasting relocation to a new residence…’ (Bell and Ward 2000:90).
22
In sum, not only has consumption become a symbol of status, but the way in
which consumption is performed has also changed. This means that the shift from
mass consumption to more individualised consumption patterns and an increase
in income and free time as well as environmental concerns can be connected to a
geographically different pattern in relation to economy and amenities.
23
24
4. MATERIAL AND METHODS
A major part of the information used in the articles in this thesis has been derived
primarily from ASTRID, a database compiled and stored by Statistics Sweden.
The database is used in a project with the aim of developing a geographical micro
simulation model regarding population, at the Department of Social and Economic Geography at Umeå University and the Spatial Modeling Centre (SMC) in
Kiruna. The database contains micro-level information on all individuals, so that
one row in the database represents one individual and the attributes connected to
that person. For the purpose of this thesis it has been vital that the data be georeferenced. This means that the individuals and their geographical attributes, place
of residence and workplace, for example, have an address in the form of coordinates, accurate to 100m x 100m. This allows it to be used for statistical calculations in a Geographical Information System (GIS), but on the other hand it also
means that those without coordinates cannot be included in the analyses on grid
cell level but can in most cases be included when defined by municipality. However, the number of missing cases was small and this is therefore of minor importance. The Swedish Standards Industrial Classification codes (SNI) have been used
to distinguish the tourist sectors, forestry and forest sectors from employment in
other sectors (as defined in the appendices of Articles I-IV).
The data are analysed on both an aggregated municipal level and a micro-geographical level. Descriptive statistics have been used to analyse the data regarding
employment changes in tourism, labour force composition such as age structure
and gender, as well as the spatial distribution of the labour and the labour market.
The analyses performed here contribute to the development of the micro-simulation model in terms of the effect of tourism, forestry and forest-related sectors on
the regional economic and demographic development on a geographical scale.
The combination of micro data and GIS is a good match. Using micro data, it is
possible to link spatial attributes to individuals, causing the spatial connections to
be grounded in the attributes of both the individual and of the place itself. At present, quantitative and applied geographers who employ GIS use merely a fraction
25
of its potential in spatial analysis. However, it is possible to combine the statistical
method of regression analysis with the advantages of both the analytical and visual
techniques offered by GIS (Article III).
The difficulty in delimiting the tourism sector is one of the more complicated
methodological problems. This has to do with several issues, but primarily difficulties arise from the fact that the traditional sector classification does not distinguish between other service-oriented sectors and workplaces exclusively catering
to tourists. Furthermore, many companies have several orientations, making the
distinction less tangible because the data classification is based on the type of firm
a person works for, not the type of work every individual is doing. In practice, this
means that a sector based fully on tourism demand will be difficult to find even
with the five-digit SNI codes in the database. As a consequence, the total impact
of increasing tourism cannot be accounted for since the material does not allow us
to show the importance of tourism for some businesses. This is the case for petrol
stations and small local stores, for instance.
There are also other ways to study the importance of tourism in terms of employment. For example, proportional multiplier analysis has been used in a number of studies on tourism since the beginning of the 1970s in order to deal with
the total impact (Archer, 1973, 1977a, 1977b; Henderson and Cousin, 1975), as
well as in forest research (Lindgren et al. 2000). In Swedish tourism statistics, it is
possible to use what is called the satellite account to calculate the economic importance of tourism on a national scale (Turistdelegationen, 2004). This provides a
practical and comparable base for the national economic impacts of tourism, but
may still need further methodological development if applied on a local or regional scale (Saarinen, 2003). This is because there are indications of rather significant differences in the indirect effects on the regional scale compared to the difference in direct effects between the municipalities. These disparities are based on
the regions’ economic structures and their relative location in the core-periphery
system.
26
The methods of multipliers and satellite accounts outlined above have not been
applied because the statistical data available allows for a detailed selection and calculation of the direct and indirect tourism employment from the statistics on a
fine geographical scale, also allowing for a more flexible selection process. In the
articles presented here the actual number accounted for in the database is thus
used to calculate the number of those employed in tourism. In doing so, there are
some gains and some drawbacks in terms of the output.
Having said that the critique of the data and the selection of tourism-related work
are fully appreciated, there are also some advantages important to note. First of all,
considering the quality and quantity of the data at hand, the analysis will be based
on all individuals, not a sample, and with the same variables, making it possible to
compare results from different parts of the area. This will undoubtedly help shed
light on more general as well as more specific geographical questions regarding
tourism employment in the area. Another argument for this method is that the
tourism industry can be specifically defined as wanted.
The nature of forestry and the forest sectors is complex and highly integrated in
economic networks far beyond the forest itself. Transportation, processing,
accounting, marketing and technological development provide some examples of
activities that can be associated with it. Forestry is interpreted as involving logging,
timber evaluation, reforestation and forest conservation including other forestry
and logging-related service activities. The forest sector includes the sawmilling industry, the wood processing industry (both chemical and mechanical) and wholesale trade with wood products. Forest-related activities are the activities created
indirectly or induced by forestry or other forest sectors. Taken together, these activities comprise forest-related employment.
The size of forest-related employment is estimated using a modified multiplier
model (see Article IV for further details). The model is developed to forecast a
possible forest-related employment development using forest growth rates as
proxy to climate change and management regimes. The model output is an estimated number of people directly employed in forestry and the forest sectors as
27
well as the additional number of employed, which comes about through their investments the region.
28
5. PAPER SUMMARIES
Article I. Economic Restructuring into Tourism in the Swedish Mountain Range
The aim is to analyse the different traits and variations of the labour market in the
Swedish Mountain Range with special reference to the significance of the development in the tourism sector. The increased importance of the tourism sector is
prominent in some parts of the mountainous area, and some of the causes for this
development are outlined. Specific questions in relation to the theme are: Does
the relative geographical location have an impact on the labour market development in the tourism-related activities? And, how do the structure and characteristics of the labour force affect the ability to be successful in tourism development?
A concentration of tourism businesses to more densely populated areas took place
between 1985 and 1999. This development is connected to the ‘urbanisation’ of
rural areas. With regard to the labour force characteristics, it is shown that the
younger age groups are more frequent in the tourism sector than are the older.
Furthermore, the imbalance in male and female tourism employment participation
at the beginning of the study period had diminished at the end of the 1990s.
The tourism sector as an important employer is uneven and uncertain in some
parts of the region. Increasing seasonal labour migration due to tourism businesses is significant. Approximately ¼ of the labour force is recruited from further
away than a 40-minute drive from the area, which is longer than most people are
willing to commute on a daily basis. The geographical location is important for the
development of the tourism sector, and the southern part of the research area is
more likely to have seasonal migration and long-distance commuting than are the
northern parts. One explanation for this is the close proximity to areas with higher
population densities. The infrastructure connecting the southern Sweden to the
municipalities in the southern mountain range is much better, allowing easier
access for tourists as well as long-distance commuters.
It is suggested that the economic restructuring towards tourism does not positively affect net migration in general. Seasonal in-migration of young people indi-
29
cates that the tourism industry does not absorb the local workforce as efficiently
as expected and that the younger population in the area is continuing to move out.
Furthermore, seasonal in-migration does not give a positive development in the
basic services since it does not increase the tax revenue necessary to improve infrastructure and other public services. A successful tourism destination is dependent on having a functioning service base, although this is not feasible with a small
permanent population.
Article II. Mobility, Migration and Seasonal Tourism Employment: Evidence from Sweden
In the study presented in this article, the findings from the article Economic Restructuring into Tourism in the Swedish Mountain Range are elaborated. With the purpose
of examining the connection between the temporal labour mobility in tourism and
permanent migration, the two Swedish mountain municipalities of Åre and
Malung are selected. The principal question addressed is whether or not temporal
tourism labour migration leads to permanent migration of tourism workers.
In the municipalities of Åre and Malung, where the largest ski resorts in the
mountain range are located, the share of long-distance commuting to employment
in tourism from other parts of the country is considerably higher than the average.
This is because the demand is higher than in the mountain range in general, due to
popular ski resorts, for example Sälen (Malung municipality) and Åre (Åre
municipality). At the same time, the population characteristics do not differ from
the other mountain municipalities. This means that the demand for tourism workers is too high for the local labour market to supply. This is partly connected to
the characteristics of the work on one hand and partly to the demography in the
mountain area on the other. Significant for this development is that the accessible
work force is not employable.
The motivation for the long-distance commuters to come to the mountains is
both income and lifestyle-related. Seasonal tourism employment makes it possible
to combine these two motives. Young people are more mobile, both between
sectors and geographically. This means that young people living in the cities are
able to take the seasonal type of work offered in tourism even if it involves long-
30
distance commuting. There seems to be a stronger incentive to move to the case
municipalities for people at the beginning of their working career, and a higher
proportion of the in-migrants receive employment in tourism in these municipalities than on average in the mountain area.
The results also show that there is a connection between temporary geographical
labour mobility into tourism and permanent migration to the case municipalities.
Long-distance commuters employed in tourism the year previous to the change of
permanent place of residence get employment in tourism after the move as well. It
is beneficial for the municipalities to have in-migration, however after ten years
only 6-8% of the in-migrants remained, demonstrating the importance to take
measures so that the municipalities remain attractive to these people.
A conclusion drawn from the results is that increasing in-migration of younger
people as a result of seasonal tourism employment could contribute to a positive
development of the local service base, infrastructure and public facilities but also
contributes to a positive image of the place. Consequently, it becomes more
attractive to investors, tourists and possible in-migrants with potential positive
spin-off effects into other social and economic areas as well.
Article III. The Role of National Parks and Protected Areas for Tourism, Forestry and Forest
Sector Employment in Swedish Mountain Municipalities
In this article, the relationship between protected areas and employment in 15
rural mountain municipalities in Sweden is analysed. The development of national
parks and other protected areas has been widely promoted because of its perceived potential for regional development in peripheral and sparsely populated
areas. The political discourse that the economic and social benefits seen in
national parks in the US and the UK, will appear in the Swedish context in the
form of an increased tourism-related labour market is tested against the view that
protected land hampers economic activity. The methods are descriptive and statistical, combining GIS and multivariate regression modelling.
31
About 2% of the total mountain municipality population lives close to national
parks in the mountain area. The change in share of forest-related employment is
negative in the mountain area as a whole, while the development of tourism employment has been more positive. Compared to the mountain municipalities in
general, the employment development in tourism in and near all national parks has
been more positive, indicating a difference between the labour markets. Regarding
forest-related employment, there is also a decrease in and near national parks.
However, the regression result does not support the idea that areas close to protected land have benefited, through tourism employment, nor have they been disadvantaged with regard to forest-related employment. Instead, other factors are
more important for employment.
The result from the regression analysis shows that important factors for the
change in tourism employment are population change and proximity to ski lifts.
The most positive relationship is between population and tourism employment,
and a decrease in population is also correlated to a decrease in forest-related employment. In the model there are also some unexpected positive changes of employment in the population centres. One explanation for the model underestimation is most likely that apart from increasing population, there has also been a
concentration of both workplaces and population to the municipal centres.
Departing from the idea that unemployment among those who have lost their
employment in traditional sectors will gain from tourism development, the result
shows no significant relationship between the development in tourism employment and forest-related employment. This indicates that tourism employment
does not follow from unemployment in forestry or related sectors, which further
accentuates the differences in the characteristics of the labour force needed in the
two sectors.
One of the main results is thus that the assumed and virtually automatic positive
relation between nature conservation and tourism can be at least to some extent
challenged based on the results presented here.
32
Article IV. Forest-related employment in the European north: Current trends and future development
Knowledge about the impact of climate change on forest-related employment is
important for making relevant policy decisions in areas where forest resources are
economically important. The aim of the study is to calculate how different levels
of forest growth directly and indirectly affect the number of employed and, furthermore, how employment varies due to differing economic and institutional
situations in the case study areas. The amount of factors and linkages between the
socio-economic system and the natural environment is difficult, if not impossible,
to grasp entirely, especially regarding the future. A simplified model has much to
offer, however, in terms of indicating trends and the general direction of a sector.
Two areas are contrasted in terms of population structure: employment structure
and forest-based economy. In Sweden the county of Norrbotten was chosen, and
in Finland the corresponding county of Lappi was selected. In the context of climate change, the issue of how it affects forest growth and how well the different
areas adapt to these changes is discussed. In relation to the theme, the importance
of other socioeconomic factors for employment in the areas, like population development, employment in other sectors, levels of reinvestment, productivity increase and changes in price development is analysed. The changes in annual increment in the forest and harvest rates due to climate change are placed against
the development in these other socioeconomic factors. The assumption is that the
forest-related employment is dependent on several interconnected factors such as
sector-specific characteristics and global, national and local institutional rules and
economies. The impact of socioeconomic variations and the annual growth
change in the forest are estimated with a modified multiplier model using different
scenarios.
In climate change research, the vulnerability of societies is used to assess the impact of climate change based on different indicators. Different localities have different capacities for responding to changes, and therefore the concept of adaptive
capacity is used. In this article, adaptive capacity is understood as being embedded
33
in the social, institutional and economic structures of a society. This allows for a
comparison of climate change impact versus other socioeconomic changes.
From the model prediction, it is concluded that irrespective of growth scenario
there is no significant effect of climate change on employment. This implies that
an increase of the annual increment is not the most important factor affecting forest-related employment in Lappi and Norrbotten. Instead, other global, national
and local processes and interrelationships such as supply and demand and productivity increase have a greater impact on employment, at least within the study
period of 2001-2050. The forest-related employment is halved by the end of the
period, assuming a baseline scenario.
34
6. RESTRUCTURING AND EMPLOYMENT CHANGE
The struggle for survival of small communities with diminishing populations has
been the point of departure for the first chapters in this introductory section. The
questions implicit in this presentation have been:
1. What are the potentials for forestry and forest-related employment development in the
areas now and in the future?
2. What potential does the tourism sector have to contribute to a restructuring of the economy?
3. Can the employment changes be related to localisation changes, changes in population
distribution, workplace distribution and migration patterns and hence general restructuring?
In the following, a number of alternative ways to maintain and increase the possibilities for people to work and live in these sparsely populated areas will be discussed, departing from the findings in Articles I-IV and the theories presented
previously. Finally, some policy implications will be introduced, followed by a
conclusion.
6.1 What are the potentials for forestry and forest-related employment development in the areas
now and in the future?
Based on observations regarding forestry and the forest sectors, it is clear that the
dependence on forest-related employment has decreased in terms of numbers of
employed and will continue to do so due to the maturity and productivity increase
rate of the sectors. However, with a decreasing population base, the share of forestry and forest-related employment does not necessarily decrease. This means
that the dependence of the local community on forestry and forest-related employment could be increasing although the number of employed is decreasing. It is
also apparent that it is not climate change and consequent growth change in the
forest that have the largest implications on the economic development of the
sectors. Instead, it is how well the industry develops and adopts technological
innovations, as well as how they interact with economic, institutional and political
changes in the surrounding world. It is therefore concluded that forestry and forest-related employment will continue to be important economically as well as in
35
the share of the labour market at local and regional levels in the sparsely populated
areas in the north.
Linked to diversification of the economy and sectoral shifts is the concept of vulnerability and adaptive capacity. The more multinational the companies become,
the more likely it is that the negative effects of restructuring, and global processes
such as climate change, are not taken seriously since the perceived risks on the
part of the companies are dispersed geographically (Lehtinen, 2001). This tendency increases the vulnerability to other processes of change and could potentially cause a restructuring ‘crisis’ when the adaptive capacity is low (Drummond
2000). Containing the economic impact in the local or regional economy is important, as the positive multipliers benefit the community from which the resource is extracted. However, the issue of leakage from the local economy becomes a serious problem when global interests are continually breaking new
ground. The importance of businesses with dense local and regional linkages is
therefore stressed. Difficulties in developing and adapting to new technology and
inventing new commodities to meet new demand could cause the withdrawal of
industry as well as limit willingness to invest in sparsely populated areas. From this
point of view, tourism as a place-based activity could be considered a means of
reducing vulnerability to such a development.
6.2 What potential does the tourism sector have to contribute to a restructuring of the economy?
Although interest in ecotourism or other small-scale tourism has increased in
recent years, much of the tourism development in the mountain range is still a
phenomenon that can be directly linked to large-scale developments at, for example, ski resorts. In the framework developed by Sandell (2005), the ski resorts
could be placed in the functional specialisation with active utilization of the landscape – a factory in which a commodity or consumer good can be produced, not
much different from the way in which the forest stake-holders are using the landscape for resource extraction. Particularly mass tourism development is likely to
stimulate in-migration and seasonal labour mobility, while small-scale ‘soft’ tourism development, like ecotourism enterprises and farm tourism in rural areas, is
more likely to find local labour (Hall and Williams, 2002). Whitby (1982) noted
36
that tourism has a useful part to play in rural development strategies in areas
where there are tourist attractions, a local supply of labour, and where other local
inputs can be used. In the context of sparsely populated areas in Sweden, this is
evident in several studies presented in this thesis.
In the context of sustainability, nature-based tourism like ecotourism and farm
tourism are often used as a means to overcome seasonality (Russell et al., 2005).
However, since the requirements for labour are different between soft and hard
tourism this could prove difficult to combine in the mass tourism destinations in
the mountains. Ecotourism development and soft tourism alternatives could be
appropriate in areas with low tourist levels due not only to long distances in terms
of the peripheral location and infrastructure, but also to differences in competition
from the south, which offers many intervening opportunities. Soft tourists come
for peace and quiet and to enjoy serene natural environments. Tourism in these
areas is an alternative development which helps maintain population and the local
service level. Expansion is not a real option; in-migration would not be stimulated,
and the work force would be local.
The opposite route would be further specialisation and concentration of the tourism sector. That would mean that the destinations – mass tourism destinations –
could gain from large-scale tourism infrastructure developments and economies of
scale. The environment as an attraction for inhabitants, tourists and businesses,
referred to as a natural amenity, is one way to increase the possibility to live and
work in the sparsely populated areas (Müller, 1999, 2005; Holmes, 2002; Lorah
and Southwick, 2003; Johnson et al., 2003;). Already 50 years ago Ullman (1954)
recognised that, although economic motivation had been in focus for migration
studies, amenities had become more important in triggering migration. Amenities
can thus be the spark that is needed for a place to increase population and improve economic growth. Ultimately, this positive development would in turn have
an agglomeration effect, stimulating more in-migration. Let us ponder on this for
a moment: In terms of increased tourism, other studies have shown that there is in
fact a higher visitation to (recently) protected areas in Sweden and Finland. However, in terms of positive employment change in tourism, it has not been possible
37
to prove a relationship. Even though the economy changes however, it does not
automatically entail a change in the quality of employment in terms of pay, skill
and technological involvement, and thus does not contribute to a general restructuring of social and economic relationships between the core and the periphery
(Hoggart and Paniagua 2001, elaborated from Mitchell and Clark, 1999).
6.3 Can the employment changes be related to localisation changes, changes in population distribution, workplace distribution and migration patterns and hence general restructuring?
At least two observations can be made regarding the importance of place in relation to the economic activities presented here. In theory, tourism could take place
everywhere, whereas forest sector activities are highly concentrated. Supply and
demand are also different in terms of geographical dispersion and concentration.
First, there is a difference in the spatial relationships in tourism and forest-related
employment. For forest sectors there is lower place fixity since the raw material
can be harvested and transported by few people to other places where the refinement into a product can be made. Second, there is no evidence that the employment effects are seen in direct relation to the amenities, in the form of protected
areas. The importance of amenity-rich areas for rural economic development
should therefore not be exaggerated, especially since it is the areas close to metropolitan areas that have benefited most from this interpretation, and not the peripheral areas (Hoggart and Paniagua, 2001).
To further elaborate on these two observations, the landscape that was formerly a
production landscape from which to extract raw material has increasingly become
a landscape for consumption and recreation (Wilson, 2001). This change has geographical implications not only for land use, but also for related consumption. In
an economy based on the extraction of raw material, extraction is followed by export to consumers widely dispersed geographically. Thus, the geographical position of the consumer does not affect local income and employment levels. Tourism, on the other hand, must be consumed in situ. In a way, the difference can be
described as either a one-to-many relationship in the case of the forest sector, or a
many-to-many relationship in the case of the tourism sector. This means that the
tourism resource - the landscape of consumption - cannot be moved as a com-
38
modity to the consumer the way the forest products can. In order for the tourism
business to generate local employment and income, the consumer must come to
the product. This raises issues of image-building marketing, place making and
other concepts connected to the commodification of places, landscapes, cultures
and peoples. It also means that the geographical distribution of a labour market
connected to landscapes of consumption is more place-dependent than the labour
market associated with landscapes of production. Therefore, the diversification
into tourism must not be taken too far since it would cause high vulnerability of
local communities and low adaptive capacity. A further geographical implication
of this is that the longer the distance from the core or a node, the harder it will be
to sustain or to attract enough tourists to support a diversification of the labour
market.
Restructuring and employment change are geographically uneven in and between
the research areas. This is taken to imply that local labour markets function differently depending on size and geographical location. There is a tendency of the
tourism businesses to concentrate in and around the larger population centres. In
order to increase competitiveness and competitive advantages, further specialisation and concentration could be a solution, even if they do not necessarily provide
a positive contribution to restructuring. Amenity-based development may depend
on both amenity migrants and sustained commitment from external sources to
support local initiative, given limited entrepreneurship in rural areas long dependent on (high-wage) extraction and manufacturing (Che, 2003).
A small permanent population could be negative to a successful tourism development because the service base that is provided is already insufficient. If the possibilities to conduct tourism or other place-based activities are undermined, the
chances of maintaining a demographically balanced population is are also reduced.
A negative spiral has then begun, because a small and diminishing permanent
population also decreases the ability to hold on to the existing services (Powell et
al. 2002). In other words, if the population structure is unbalanced and
diminishing it will be difficult to attain economic restructuring and diversification.
Despite the general trend that there is seasonal in-migration and continued out-
39
migration, there are geographical differences in the attraction of in-migrants and
seasonal in-migration to employment in tourism. Åre and Malung are examples of
municipalities where tourism has stimulated more permanent migration of young
people to the mountain range. Work in tourism has led to more in-migration,
contributing to a positive development of the local service base, infrastructure and
public facilities. Such positive outcome can be perpetuated by further making the
places attractive to investors, tourists and possible in-migrants. Ullman (1954)
draws attention to the fact that the more people who migrate to amenity-rich
areas, the more pull effect the area exerts on other migrants. This type of
cumulative process, it could be argued, could also occur in the mountain
municipalities in Sweden. However, the positive influences of economic
restructuring towards tourism in general in the mountain municipalities are small
with regard to balance between in and out-migration. The permanent population,
especially the young, continues to move out because tourism employment is not
enough to absorb the local workforce and seasonal in-migration does not give a
positive development in the basic services in general.
With the creation of Sveaskog Naturupplevelser AB (www.sveaskog.se), the forest
areas in the north of Sweden are being re-created from a warehouse of raw materials to a natural heritage for all of Europe, providing a green image of the forest
industry the same way as in the northern and eastern parts of Finland (Kniivilää
and Saastamoinen, 2002). Connected to this development and consequent increase
of visitors are also the possibilities of an increased local income and local employment. If there is a shift towards amenity-driven tourism and in-migration to
areas in and near national parks or nature reserves, it should be visible in the empirical evidence in terms of increasing numbers of those employed in tourism in
relation to national parks and nature reserves. The change in the economy coupled
to the shift towards an amenity-driven consumption landscape has implications on
the dispersion of population and workplaces. However, in the mountain municipalities, an increased population in the municipal centres and a concentration of
both tourism workplaces and population have taken place. Employment change in
tourism has been more positive within areas with higher population densities and
40
with positive population development in the mountain range, especially to the
north and not close to protected areas.
6.4 Implications on regional policy
Regional, national and EU-level policy has met the challenges of globalisation and
increased competition through various measures aimed at stimulating entrepreneurship and tourism development primarily to relieve the problems of economic
restructuring (Paniagua, 2002). The policies are thus seen as a way to increase the
possibilities for employment, counteracting out-migration and securing the competence in areas facing restructuring problems. It must be considered that a large
amount of money is invested in labour market efforts related to tourism each year
in the area. The authorities hold the common belief that tourism is going to turn
the negative socioeconomic development around, and they therefore direct their
efforts towards stimulating tourism. This is done in a variety of ways, including
infrastructural investments, local mobilisation and co-operations. Economic benefits and regional development are also expected to be the result of the protection
of land with regard to tourism. However, such beliefs and the consequent effect
of large labour market investments must be monitored, so that policy and decision
makers can make the most of the limited amount of money available. One way of
monitoring this development is to look at the spatial differentiation between areas
or municipalities in how attractive and competitive they are for recruiting
local/non-local workforce. Considering this, if a large number of those seasonally
employed in tourism decide to move to the area permanently it could prove positive to the local economic development and would also contribute to the overall
restructuring in the area. This can happen only if the seasonal variations in demand are diminished through a prolonging of the seasons.
Prolonging the seasons can help these areas in at least three ways: First, it could
stimulate more of the seasonal long-distance commuters to make a permanent
move. Second, if there were opportunities for meaningful, full-time employment
in tourism, there would be more incentive for young locals to stay and get an education in tourism. Third, more locals would be interested in starting new busi-
41
nesses, but more businesses from outside would also be attracted, contributing to
restructuring.
If seasonal labour migration is to contribute to the general local and regional
development and restructuring then there need to be a more flexible tax system.
The fiscal system in Sweden is arranged so that it is only possible to register one
municipality as one’s permanent place of residence, even though a person can live
and work for large parts of the year in another municipality. This means that
tourism employees from municipalities outside the mountain area do not increase
the municipal tax revenues necessary for improving infrastructure and other public services, because they do not pay taxes in the area. But even if the seasonal
labour migrates to the area it is important to keep in mind that a ‘permanent’
move does not always last forever. It is therefore crucial that the positive effects
of in-migration are as great as possible. This can be achieved through measures
directed at expanding local public service and stimulating entrepreneurial endeavours, for example. Diversification of the labour market is also a way to make sure
there are alternative employment opportunities if employment in tourism should
be scarce or become less attractive. Furthermore, it is important to note that the
age group attracted demands different services than does the older population
residing in the area. The choice to take a seasonal job in the mountain area could
be lifestyle-related, and evidence shows that it is predominantly young people who
in-migrate after having seasonal tourism employment. This is why it is important
to make sure that the in-migration related to tourism becomes more long-term,
since this age group is vital to the demographic balance.
42
7. CONCLUSIONS
The purpose of this doctoral thesis has been to examine the ongoing restructuring and
its impacts on sparsely populated areas in Sweden and Finland with special reference to
tourism employment and forest-related employment. The conclusions presented
in this chapter dispel some of the current myths about tourism and forest-related
activities in these areas. From a local and regional perspective, this has implications on the outcome of many measures aiming to stimulate businesses for regional development and restructuring.
The increasing awareness of ongoing climate change has prompted researchers
and institutions to undertake research, in relation not only to the magnitude of the
climate change itself, but also to the impacts it would have on society. In most
cases the threats and negative impacts of climate change have been emphasised.
Contrary to such beliefs, the threat of climate change in the case areas has been found to be
negligible in comparison to other external and internal factors, such as increased competition and productivity increase. Certain particular circumstances make it easier to
draw this conclusion: First, the time period considered is ‘only’ 50 years, which in
this context must be considered short. Second, the climate variability has not been
taken into consideration. This means that the impact of storms, droughts and
other extremes are not included, which of course would alter the results. Regardless of this, however, it is safe to conclude that since the importance of employment in the forestry and forest sectors has decreased, the number of jobs would
not be that significantly affected by climate change. This result helps dispel another myth, namely that of the importance of forestry and forest-related employment in the
research area.
Because of the perceived importance of forest-related employment in the north of
Sweden, there has been controversy about the amount of land designated for
protection. At the same time, there has been a belief that the protection of land
would generate employment in tourism and hence add to positive regional development. However, both of these beliefs have been denounced since no connection could be proven between employment in either sector and the protection of
43
land, at least not on a local level. However, there is no doubt that an increase in
visitation due to for example a desire to attain perceived amenities could generate
important developments in a sub-regional context.
Although tourism is a good complement to other sectors and could act as a generator of seasonal migration, it does not necessarily provide year-round employment in the Swedish mountain municipalities. Furthermore, the character of the
employment is low-skill and low-pay, demanding high flexibility on the part of the
employees as well as the small businesses. With this in mind, the contribution to
the general restructuring and to positive regional development is limited in a majority of the mountain municipalities. This is clearly demonstrated by the high
level of seasonal labour mobility to some parts of the mountain area. Thus the myth
about tourism as the most powerful weapon against problems of restructuring has been dispelled.
If competition from other areas increases and the large investors and companies
currently active in forest-related employment should withdraw, there are other
resource-based activities that could act as successors. Another resource, in the
form of amenities, is also abundant in the sparsely populated areas. People in the
more populous regions demand these to facilitate and support certain lifestyles.
However, the spatial relations of the tourism sector activities and the forest-related
employment are not the same, which has implications not only for the population
dispersion and concentration but also for the quality of the employment itself.
There is also a need for the tourism in forest-rich regions to have someone to
maintain the recreational qualities of the areas. After all, for these amenities to be
enjoyed, a certain amount of people have to live there for them to be accessible.
Traditionally the maintenance of the forest and also infrastructure has been provided by forestry but with decreasing importance of raw material and decreasing
population this might be a problem.
Other problems connected to monetary and other support to less favoured areas
concern taken-for-granted connections and causal chains. It does not matter
whether money is distributed through regional development programs or through
the European Union’s structural funds if the relationships between change, devel-
44
opment, growth and restructuring are not clear. The so-called indicators and the
relationships between them are not nearly as clear-cut as suggested in most analysis and action proposals. It is argued here that there is no automatic relationship
between a decrease in forest-related employment and increased tourism employment. This is easily explained by the fact that the general employability of those
who are forest-employed is low since the demand for workers in tourism does not
correspond to the characteristics of former employees in forestry and forest sectors.
It would be easy to conclude that the people living in these areas are themselves
responsible for the problems they now face. However, there is reason to think
about why these problems have occurred at these specific places. It is not only the
population characteristics, the lack of entrepreneurship or the lack of consumers
in the local and regional community that cause a perpetuating problem for small
businesses. It is not only the demographic and economic changes that are negative
and create low capacity to respond to global processes. The peripheral location
itself also constitutes a problem because it makes it difficult to attract consumers,
capital or in-migrants from other areas, for many of the municipalities even on a
temporary basis. Therefore, it is concluded that policy measures that could help
areas close to densely populated centres to increase their income and employment
are too blunt and inappropriate for more peripheral and marginal areas.
45
46
8. SUMMARY
In the context of sparsely populated areas, the global processes have large local
impact because of a poor capacity to adapt to rapid economic changes. Furthermore, the peripheral areas in northern Sweden and Finland have undergone employment change through reduced public spending and reduced importance of resource extraction and refinement. Therefore, the purpose of the thesis is to examine the
ongoing restructuring and its impacts on sparsely populated areas in Sweden and Finland. The
focus here is on tourism and forest-related employment. Amenity motives for
mobility and migration have also been considered in relation to restructuring.
This thesis includes four articles and an introductory section. The first article considers different traits and variations on the labour market, especially the significance of the development in the tourism sector. The second article further elaborates the findings from Article I, but with the purpose of examining the connection between the temporal labour mobility in tourism and permanent migration.
Results show that employment in tourism in the Swedish Mountain Municipalities
is largely seasonal in character and the origin of workers differs between the
northern and the southern parts of the mountain range. It is demonstrated that
geographical proximity to population centres in the south has an impact on tourism labour market development. The success of tourism as a regional development strategy is affected by the structure and characteristics of the local labour
force, such as age composition, experience and education of the local labour force,
as well as attributes of the tourism industry. The seasonality of tourism has caused
seasonal in-migration or long-distance commuting of young people, first and
foremost to the southern mountain municipalities..
In the third article, the relationship between protected areas and employment in
the mountain municipalities is analysed from employment in tourism and forestry
and forest-sector employment. One of the main results is that the assumed and
almost automatic positive relationship between nature conservation and tourism
to some extent is challenged based on the results presented here. The popular
view is that people, as they get more money and free time, will consume more of
47
the amenities in the landscape. However, as seen from an employment perspective
in tourism in the mountain municipalities, this does not necessarily translate into a
local employment increase in tourism. No direct relationship between a decrease
in employment in forestry and forest sectors and increased tourism employment is
found, since the demand for workers in tourism does not correspond to the characteristics of former employees in forestry and forest sectors.
In the last article, analyses are performed on how different levels of forest growth
as a result of climate change affect the number of those employed, and how employment varies due to differing economic and institutional situations in the case
study areas. It is concluded that irrespective of growth scenario there is no significant effect of climate change on employment. Instead other global, national and
local processes and interrelationships, such as supply and demand and productivity increase, have greater impact on employment, at least within the study period.
Forestry and related sectors have shifted towards a more capital intensive management, which means that the productivity rate of each worker is so high that the
increasing amount of harvestable forest due to climate change does not involve
employment of more people.
In conclusion, the economic restructuring processes in relation to tourism have
been limited in a majority of the mountain municipalities. This is clearly demonstrated by the high level of seasonal labour mobility to some parts of the mountain
area. The role of tourism for restructuring differs between places and locations.
To the north, there are fewer large resorts with high seasonal pressure than in the
south. This means that tourism can be a way of maintaining work opportunities
and sustaining local service. In the south and in the larger resorts, the tourism
might be a way to ensure more employment although on a seasonal basis. Local
diversity through place-dependent activities like tourism and resource-based recreation, as well as resource extraction, might offer opportunities for economic restructuring. However, if the population structure is unbalanced and diminishing
there will be difficulty in pursuing economic restructuring and diversification. Add
to this a peripheral location and there are many obstacles to increasing the popu-
48
lation, even temporarily. The inevitable conclusion that tourism development
must be carefully considered on a local basis has been difficult to avoid.
49
50
9. SAMMANFATTNING
Syftet med denna avhandling är att undersöka den pågående omstruktureringen i
samhället och dess påverkan i glesbygd i Sverige och Finland. Detta syfte utgår
från att globala processer till synes får stor lokal och regional påverkan i glest bebyggda områden. Perifera områden i norra Sverige och Finland har också drabbats
hårdare av neddragningar inom offentliga sektorn med få alternativa arbetsgivare.
Sammantaget med den minskade betydelse av råmaterialutvinning för sysselsättning har det inneburit en stor påfrestning för arbetsmarknaden. Denna negativa
utveckling har man på olika nivåer inom Sverige och EU försökt motverka med
åtgärder av olika slag, vilka i många fall har riktat in sig mot att stödja turismutveckling och entreprenörskap. Detta har skett utifrån en övertygelse om att naturen som dragningskraft kan locka turister till området.
Fokus för denna avhandling är sysselsättningen inom turism, skogsbruk och
skogsrelaterad verksamhet samt den generella och ekonomiska omstrukturering
som sker i glesbygd. Frågor som handlar om mobilitet i relation till turismsysselsättning har också behandlats. Avhandlingen består av fyra artiklar samt ett introducerade avsnitt med en kort diskussion och en avslutande konklusion. Den första
artikeln behandlar arbetsmarknadens olika förutsättningar och arbetskraftens
sammansättning i Svenska fjällkedjan med betoning på turismens förändrade betydelse för sysselsättningen. Resultaten visar att förutsättningarna för att utveckla
turismsysselsättningen och därmed bidra till omstrukturering varierar i studieområdet. Turismrelaterade arbetsplatser blir under studieperioden 1985-1999 färre
och mer koncentrerade till relativt befolkningstäta områden. Säsongsrelaterad
långpendling från främst storstadsområden har också observerats och i hela fjällkedjan utgörs cirka 25% av arbetskraften inom turism av unga långpendlare som
inte är permanent bosatta i området. Det finns även en tydlig koppling mellan antalet långpendlare och närheten till tätbefolkade områden i södra Sverige. Kommuner i norr har inte lika stor andel långväga inpendlare som södra fjällkedjan.
Slutsatsen att den generella nettomigrationen inte påverkas av säsongsbaserad inflyttning dras då den lokala arbetskraften inte får jobb i så stor utsträckning att det
51
påverkar utflyttningsprocessen. Därmed får omstruktureringen som följer av
turismsysselsättning inte heller någon generell positiv påverkan.
Artikel två bygger i stor utsträckning på resultaten i artikel ett, men utvidgar frågeställningen till att inrikta sig mot betydelsen av säsongsbaserad långpendling för
permanent flytt till två fallstudiekommuner - Åre och Malung. Andelen långpendlare till turismsysselsättning i dessa kommuner är högre än i genomsnitt för övriga
fjällkommuner. Detta beror dels på den stora efterfrågan under säsongen och dels
på den lokala befolkningens sammansättning som tillsammans bidrar till att den
lokala arbetsmarknaden är för liten för att förse turismen med anställda. Motiven
för främst unga människor att komma till fjällkommunerna är flera. Livsstilsrelaterade och arbetsmarknadsrelaterade motiv diskuteras i artikeln. Resultaten visar
också att det finns en viss koppling mellan säsongsmässig långpendling och migration till fallstudiekommunerna men materialet visar även att de som flyttar in
tenderar att flytta ut igen ganska snart.
I den tredje artikeln är skyddade områden i fokus för analysen och den betydelse
dessa har för sysselsättningen inom skog och turism i närliggande områden. Motsättningen mellan de som å ena sidan hävdar att skyddad skog ger turismsysselsättning och å andra sidan de som anser att skyddad skog bara betyder sämre sysselsättning inom skogsbruket och skogsrelaterade sektorer har undersökts. Resultaten som baseras på multipel regressionsanalys visar att ingen av dessa påståenden
får stöd i undersökningen. Den koppling som förutsätts finnas mellan skyddad
natur och en ökning av antalet turister medför alltså ingen tydlig positiv sysselsättningsförändring. Istället är det positiv befolkningsförändring och befolkningstäthet som ger mest positiv sysselsättningsförändring samt för turismens räkning
även närhet till skidliftar. Något samband tycks inte heller finnas mellan minskad
sysselsättning inom skogsbruk och relaterade sektorer och ökad turismsysselsättning vilket borde ha varit fallet om arbetslösa skogsarbetare hade gått över till turism.
I den fjärde och sista artikeln i avhandlingen behandlas sysselsättning i skogsbruket och relaterad industri i norra Sverige och Finland. Frågan som framförallt be-
52
handlas är om en ökad tillväxttakt i skogen som ett resultat av klimatförändring
skulle leda till ökad sysselsättning. Sysselsättningsförändring antas även bero på
fler faktorer som till exempel institutionella och ekonomiska system, prisnivåer,
produktivitet och löner. Resultatet visar att det inte främst är virkestillväxten som
avgör hur många som är sysselsatta, utan istället är det produktivitetsökning och
prisnivåer som är viktig för sysselsättningen. Detta beror i första hand på att detta
är en mogen bransch där sysselsättningsnivån redan är så låg och produktiviteten
så hög att mer skog inte innebär en ökning av sysselsatta. Dessutom är den inbyggda anpassningsförmågan i samhällssystemen hög i studieområdena.
Omstrukturering i och med turismutveckling har varit begränsad i en majoritet av
fjällkommunerna. Det görs tydligt i och med den stora andel långpendlande
säsongsarbetare som kommer till vissa delar av fjällkedjan. Den roll som turismen
spelar för omstrukturering varierar mellan olika platser men koncentrationen av
befolkning är positiv för turismsysselsättning. I norr finns det färre destinationer
med högt säsongstryck och det betyder att turism kan vara ett sätt att behålla service och därmed sysselsättning på lokal nivå. I söder och i de större destinationsorterna kan turismen få en annan roll som sysselsättningsskapare åtminstone
under högsäsong.
Lokal diversifiering genom platsbundna ekonomiska aktiviteter som turism och
utvinning av råmaterial kan ge möjlighet till omstrukturering. Ett kvarvarande
problem är dock befolkningens åldrande och den fortsatta befolkningsminskningen. Om befolkningen är i obalans kommer omstrukturering och regional utveckling fortsättningsvis också att hämmas. Detta beror i första hand på de små
möjligheter som finns i området att anpassa sig till snabbt förändrade ekonomiska
förutsättningar. Ytterligare problem tillstöter när man tar in det perifera läget i beräkningen då det i realiteten betyder att det är svårt att locka människor att komma
till vissa av dessa områden ens på temporär basis – som turister eller som säsongsarbetare.
53
54
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Abramsson, M.: Housing Careers in a Changing Welfare State. (Akad. avh.)
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Jonsson, G.: Rotad, rotlös, rastlös – Ung mobilitet i tid och rum. (Akad. avh.)
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Brandt, B. F.: Botniabanan – Förväntningar i tid och rum på regional utveckling
och resande. (Akad. avh.)
2006:1
Helgesson, L.: Getting Ready for Life – Life Strategies of Town Youth in Mozambique and Tanzania. (Akad. avh.)
2006:2
Lundmark, L.: Restructuring and Employment Change in Sparsely Populated
Areas: Examples from Northern Sweden and Finland. (Akad. avh.)