Deep Habits Morten Ravn (EUI) Stephanie Schmitt-Grohé (Duke) Martı́n Uribe (Duke) 1 Existing Literature on Habit Formation • Habits are formed at the level of a composite good. (Superficial Habits) U (ct − θct−1) "Z # 1 1 1− 1 1− 1 η η cit di ct = 0 • This paper: Habits are formed at the level of individual goods. (Deep Habits) U (xt) with xt = "Z 1 0 (cit − θcit−1 # 1 1 1− 1 1− η η ) di 2 Superficial Habits Demand side effect: Euler equation with external superficial habit U 0(ct − θct−1) = βEtU 0(ct+1 − θct)Rt+1 No supply side effects: Demand function for good i as in a model without habits: cit = Pit Pt !−η ct 3 Aggregate Implications of Deep Habits • The economys demand side (particularly the consumption Euler equation) is identical under deep and superficial external habits. • Under deep habit formation, the supply side of the economy changes in fundamental ways. 4 Demand Function for Good i Under External Deep Habit Formation −η cit = pit (ct − θct−1) + θcit−1 • Deep Habits give rise to a theory of countercyclical markups. the price elasticity of demand becomes countercyclical: [ Priceelasticity effect of deep habits] • the pricing problem becomes dynamic: [ Intertemporal effect of deep habits] 5 Three Variations 1. Good Specific Subsistence Points −η cit = pit xt + θc∗ 2. Relative Deep Habits −η θ(1−η) cit = pit xtcit−1 3. Internal Deep Habits cit = ∞ X k=0 −η θ k rt,t+k pit+k Xt + θcit−1 6 Equilibrium Under Deep Habits Ux(xt, ht ) = βRtEtUx(xt+1 , ht+1) xt = ct − θct−1 Uh(xt, ht ) wt = − Ux(xt, ht ) ct = Atht µt = νt = At wt µt − 1 + θEtrt,t+1νt+1 µt ct = η(ct − θct−1)νt µt = 1 − 1 η 1− θct−1 ct −1 + θEtrt,t+1vt+1 7 Deep Habits and Markups Dynamics in a Fully Fledged RBC Model • Slow decay in habits: "Z #1/(1−1/η) 1−1/η 1 j j xt = cit − θsit−1 di , 0 sit = ρsit−1 + (1 − ρ)cit. • Elastic labor supply and Capital accumulation • Three shocks: - Productivity Shocks - Preference Shocks - Government Spending Shocks • Government consumption is subject to deep habit formation 8 Estimating Deep Habits Fully Fledged Deep-Habit Model: GMM Estimates of Structural Parameters, U.S. data from 1967-2003 (Quarterly). Measurement C R tot C RF F R Joint System Based σ θ 1.854 0.861 (0.583) (0.039) Estimates η ρ 5.261 0.848 (1.062) (0.027) J-test 54.22 [0.749] Notes: Numbers in parentheses are heteroscedasticity consistent standard errors. Numbers in square brackets are P-values. 9 Impulse Responses to Positive Preference, Government Spending, and Productivity Shocks Under Deep Habit, Superficial Habit, and No Habit Markup Output Wage 0.4 0.8 0.3 0.2 0.6 0.2 0 0.4 0.1 −0.2 0.2 0 −0.4 0 10 Markup 0 20 0.5 0 −0.5 −1 0 10 Markup 20 0.4 0.2 0.2 0 0 −0.2 1.5 −0.2 1 −0.4 0.5 20 Deep Habit −0.1 0.4 0 10 20 0.6 2 0 10 Output 0.6 0.2 −0.6 0 0 0 10 Output 20 −0.2 Consumption 1 0.5 0 10 Wage 0 20 0 10 20 Consumption 0.02 0 −0.02 0 10 Wage −0.04 20 0 1.5 10 20 Consumption 0.4 0.3 1 0.2 0.5 0 10 20 0 0.1 0 10 20 Superficial Habit 0 0 10 20 ..... No habit Row 1: Preference Shock. Row 2: Government Spending Shock. Row 3: Technology shock. 10 Conclusion • Deep habit formation implies that producers face demand functions that depend on past sales. • Thus, the deep-habit model provides microfoundations to customer market (PhelpsWinter, 1970) and brand-switching-cost (Klemperer, 1995) models. • Deep habits induce a theory of endogenous markup determination. • Under deep habits markups are countercyclical, which is in line with empirical evidence. 11
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