ACEforward
ACEforward
Dan Leavitt
Manager of Regional Initiatives
San Joaquin Regional Rail Commission
ACE Business to Business Trip October 30, 2014
Current ACE - 2014
2
ACEforward Project Goals 5-year plan – 2018
Stockton - Modesto
• Extension to Modesto
Altamont Corridor
• Safety & Operational Improvements
• Increase Service to 6 Daily Round Trips
3
ACEforward Project Goals Ten-Year Plan - 2022
Stockton - Merced
• Extension to Merced
Altamont Corridor
• Increase Service to
10 Daily Round Trips
4
The New ACEforward Initiative
ACE
ACEforward Ext.
The New ACEforward Initiative
ACEforward travel times compared to ACE today
Notes: ACEforward times in italics are estimates rounded to the nearest minute, assuming a 10%
reduction in travel times achieved by improvements in applicable portions of the corridor. The
extension to Modesto and Merced assumes a top travel speed of 79 mph on new track within the
existing UPRR Fresno Subdivision right-of-way.
8
Bay Area
Tri Valley and BART Connectivity
Stockton – Lathrop – Tracy
San Joaquin Valley Alternatives
San Joaquin Valley Alternatives
River Islands:
Commerce Blvd/
Employment
Center
Manteca:
Main Street/Moffat Blvd
Ripon:
Kiernan
Avenue
Main Street/ 2nd Street
Modesto:
I - K Streets
Turlock:
Main Street
Tracy:
E. Sixth
Street/ N.
Central Ave.
Atwater: N. Winton
Way/ Atwater Blvd
Kiernan
Avenue
Livingston:
Main Street
Merced:
MLK – G Street
Proposed HSR
Station
ACEforward – Ridership Forecast – Merced Extension
 No-build ridership forecast to increase by more than 25% by 2025
 The highest long-term annual ridership could be up to 5.9-million riders,
an increase of more than more than 340% compared to today’s usage
6,000,000
5.9
5,000,000
No Build (No
Extension)
Annual Riders
4,000,000
3,000,000
2,000,000
6 Daily Round
Trips (Extend
to Modesto)
2.25
1.33
10 Daily Round
Trips (Extend
to Merced)
1,000,000
0
14
2015
2020
Year
2025
ACEforward – Station Activity Level
Forecast ACE Ons & Offs at Stations with Expanded Future Service
Low Total Ridership Estimate
1,000,000
900,000
800,000
Ons & Offs
700,000
600,000
500,000
400,000
300,000
200,000
100,000
0
15
2015
2020
2025
ACEforward – Station Activity Level
Forecast ACE Ons & Offs at Stations with Expanded Future Service
High Total Ridership Estimate
1,200,000
1,000,000
Ons & Offs
800,000
600,000
400,000
2015
2020
200,000
2025
0
HSR Connection
in 2025
16
ACEforward – Ridership forecast summary for 2025
Findings for 2025:
 A HSR connection would increase ACE
ridership by between 345,000 and 675,000
riders depending on operations
 A direct connection between ACE and
BART at Greenville Road in Livermore is
forecast to add nearly 865,000 riders on ACE
(nearly 17%)
 Weekend service adds between 610,000
and 950,000 riders (16 – 19%) in 2025
17
ACEforward – ACE Annual Ridership Levels
2015
No Build
2020
No Build
2020
6 ACE Trains
Extend to
Modesto
Annual Riders
(millions)
1.33
1.52
2.25
1.65
4.45 – 5.86*
Average Passenger
Trip Length (miles)
44.32
44.28
50.42
44.29
58.0 – 61.72*
Annual Passenger
Miles (millions)
58.9
67.1
113.6
73.0
258.0 – 361.7*
* 2025 ranges include connection to HSR
18
2025
No Build
2025
10 ACE Trains
Extend to
Merced
ACEforward – ACE Annual Ons & Offs (thousands)
[Select Stations]
2015
No Build
2020
No Build
2020
6 ACE Trains Extend
to Modesto
2025
No Build
2025
10 ACE Trains
Extend to Merced
Merced
0
0
0
0
205 – 258
Atwater or
Livingston
0
0
0
0
183 – 229
0
0
0
0
192 – 239
0
0
360
0
673 – 829
0
0
102
0
195 – 239
0
0
123
0
236 – 287
164
187
213
209
317 – 371
683
778
754
846
1,293 – 1,581
Tri-Valley Stations
896
1,024
1,409
1,114
2,576 – 2,769
South Bay
19 Stations
913
1,042
1,546
1,132
3,029 – 3,296
Turlock
Modesto
Ripon
Downtown
Manteca
Stockton
Tracy/Lathrop/
Manteca
ACEforward – Parking Demand at Stations
[Select Stations]
2015
No Build
Merced
0
0
0
0
198 – 250
Atwater or
Livingston
0
0
0
0
177 – 221
Turlock
0
0
0
0
186 – 230
Modesto
0
0
512
0
650 – 799
Ripon
0
0
144
0
188 – 230
0
0
175
0
227 – 276
234
267
303
290
303 – 439
464
529
325
575
378 – 455
565
576
744
627
866 – 993
Downtown
Manteca
Stockton
Lathrop/
Manteca
Tracy
20
2020
2020
No Build 6 ACE Trains Extend
to Modesto
2025
No Build
2025
10 ACE Trains
Extend to Merced
ACEforward Benefits - Automobile Vehicle Miles
Increased ridership on ACE diverts automobile vehicle miles
from the roadway network
400.0
358.5
350.0
Millions of Miles
300.0
250.0
187.4
200.0
150.0
100.0
50.0
43.5
84.1
0.0
2015 No Build 2020 No Build 2020 Extend to 2025 No Build 2025 Extend to 2025 Merced
Modesto
Merced
w/ BART & HSR
Connections
21
ACEforward Benefits - GHG Reductions
Increased ridership on ACE reduces CO2 emissions
250.00
233.5
Millions of Pounds (CO2)
200.00
150.00
111.1
100.00
50.00
50.1
24.4
0.00
2015 No Build 2020 No Build 2020 Extend to 2025 No Build 2025 Extend to 2025 Merced
Modesto
Merced
w/BART & HSR
22
Altamont Corridor Capital Improvements
Section
Extension to Modesto
• San Joaquin County (1)
• Stanislaus County
5th & 6th Train (2)
Extension to Merced
• Stanislaus County (3)
• Merced County
7th – 10th Train (2)
Project Cost
($-MM 2014)
Local Share*
($-MM 2014)
$102.8
$96.2
$25.7
$24.1
$202
$50.5
$122.5
$227.2
$30.6
$56.8
$200
$50
1 – Extension to Ripon
2 – Capacity and grade crossing improvements Stockton – San Jose section
& maintenance facility expansion
3 – Extension to Turlock
4 – Capacity improvements Stockton – San Jose section
23
ACEforward Equipment Costs
Locomotives
5th & 6th Train **
13
2
60.5
3.8
7th – 10th Train ***
25
4
117.5
5.9
178.0
9.7
Element
Total
* Local Share assumes 75% state + federal funding
** Local Share split between 4 counties
*** Local Share cost split between 5 counties
24
Local
Share*
Passenger
Coaches
Total
($-MM 2014)
($-MM 2014)
Altamont Corridor Operating and Maintenance Costs
Project
Existing
(4 Weekday round trips Stockton/San Jose)
5th & 6th Train
(2 Weekday round trips Modesto – San Jose)
Yearly
Revenue
Miles
(1,000 mi)
Increase
of Annual
O&M
Cost*
($-MM)
Annual
Local
Share **
($-MM)
178.6
--
--
277.8
$4.9 – $5.4
$0.90 – $0.99
768.4
$23 – $25
$3.1 – $3.5
7th – 10th Train
(6 Weekday round trips extended to Merced/San
Jose)
(+ 4 Weekend-Holiday round trips Merced/San Jose)
(+2 Weekend-Holiday round trips Stockton/San Jose)
* Projected gross increase over prior amount (e.g., 5th& 6th vs. Existing; 7th – 10th vs. 5th & 6th)
** Assuming a 45% farebox recovery; remaining deficit shared between 3 counties near term
and 4 counties long term
25
Environmental Clearance Strategy
The environmental review process and planning activities associated with the California
Environmental Quality Act (CEQA) and the National Environmental Policy Ace (NEPA)
include:
 Program-level clearance for 10 daily
round trips in the Altamont Corridor
and extension to Merced
 Project-level clearance for 6 daily
round trips in the Altamont Corridor
and extension to Modesto
 Separate documents for stand-alone
improvements (safety, grade
separations, sidings); potential for
expedited clearance & delivery
 Strategic partnering to clear major
joint use / joint interest projects
26
ACEforward Schedule
27
Questions?
Everything in life depends on a good connection.