Indra Sistemas
Flash note
Spain/ Software & Computer Services
Investment Research
Reason: Company Newsflow
Accumulate
El cambio de foco puede crear valor
from Neutral
10.34
Share price: EUR
closing price as of 08/07/2015
Target price: EUR
12.50
11.30
from Target Price: EUR
Reuters/Bloomberg
IDR.MC/IDR SM
Daily avg. no. trad. sh. 12 mth
Daily avg. trad. vol. 12 mth (m)
Price high 12 mth (EUR)
Price low 12 mth (EUR)
Abs. perf. 1 mth
Abs. perf. 3 mth
Abs. perf. 12 mth
5,383,032
54,979.55
12.41
7.57
17.7%
-5.2%
-16.3%
Market capitalisation (EURm)
Current N° of shares (m)
Free float
1,696
164
70%
Key financials (EUR)
Sales (m)
EBITDA (m)
EBITDA margin
EBIT (m)
EBIT margin
Net Profit (adj.)(m)
ROCE
Net debt/(cash) (m)
Net Debt Equity
Net Debt/EBITDA
Int. cover(EBITDA/Fin.int)
EV/Sales
EV/EBITDA
EV/EBITDA (adj.)
EV/EBIT
P/E (adj.)
P/BV
OpFCF yield
Dividend yield
EPS (adj.)
BVPS
DPS
12/14
3,031
268
8.8%
(42)
nm
(90)
-1.9%
663
0.7
2.5
7.2
0.7
7.5
7.3
nm
nm
1.4
28.5%
0.0%
(0.56)
5.86
0.00
12/15e
2,990
79
2.7%
(264)
nm
(206)
-6.6%
705
1.1
8.9
2.1
0.8
30.4
10.3
nm
nm
2.7
-1.6%
0.0%
(1.26)
3.84
0.00
12/16e
3,091
335
10.8%
264
8.5%
167
16.1%
598
0.8
1.8
8.9
0.7
6.9
6.7
8.7
10.1
2.1
7.2%
0.0%
1.03
4.81
0.00
16
vvdsvdvsdy
15
14
13
12
10
9
8
Jun 14
Indra detalló ayer el plan de negocio que soporta los objetivos financieros que
había adelantado (mirar nuestro diario de ayer). Subimos la recomendación
desde Neutral a Acumular y el precio objetivo desde 11,3 a 12,5 EUR/ACC.
Después de escuchar el plan de acción del management, incluyendo los principales
responsables del negocio, nuestra conclusión es que lo que puede permitir una
recuperación de márgenes y de valor de la compañía es el cambio de objetivo
de la empresa. Mirando los recientes años de la compañía, se puede decir que el
principal logro de la empresa fue compensar la tremenda bajada del negocio
doméstico con facturación exterior. Sin embargo esto se consiguió llevándose por
delante los márgenes y la generación de cash flow. Viendo los ajustes que ahora
realiza Indra, para conseguir ese proceso de sustitución de actividad se admitieron
contratos que ahora se prueba eran difícilmente rentables. Ahora el principal
objetivo se ha puesto en la generación de cash flow libre. Para ello básicamente
se realizan tres actuaciones:
•
Recorte de gastos en unos 200 mEUR
•
Saneamiento de contratos no rentables
•
Focalización de la empresa en las actividades donde por su know-how o
ventajas, puede ser más competitiva y lograr más márgenes.
Recordamos que los objetivos financieros anunciados por Indra incluyen un
crecimiento de ventas medio anual del 2,5%-4,5% entre 2014 y 2018, un margen
recurrente de entre el 10% y el 11%, una generación de CFL de 200 mEUR en 2018 y
una Deuda Neta/Ebitda de 1x en 2018.
La gran pregunta es si estos objetivos son alcanzables. Nuestra opinión es que si
en términos de margen y que es más ambicioso en términos de crecimiento de ventas
porque la competencia es feroz en el sector.
En realidad los objetivos que se ha fijado Indra eran muy similares a los que
teníamos ya nosotros. Comparando con el sector, un margen del 10% no debería
ser un problema, una vez que se ha limpiado Brasil, como ya esperábamos cuando
se hicieron los primeros ajustes en el 1Q15. Se van a contabilizar en 2015, 260
mEUR de pérdidas por sobrecostes de contratos (de los que el 59% es en Brasil) y un
impairment de 135 mEUR ( 87% es por Brasil).
El año 2015 será de nuevo de transición, con fuertes pérdidas a nivel de beneficio
neto por las provisiones y sin entrar aún los efectos de la reestructuración. Quién
invierta en Indra tiene que mirar a 2016 y 2017. Nuestras estimaciones alcanzan
342 mEUR de Ebit en 2018 con unas ventas de 3.272 MEUR y un CFL de 225
mEUR. El margen Ebitda en el periodo se coloca en el 10-11%. Con estas
previsiones Indra eliminaría su deuda a partir de 2019 y pensamos que podría pagar
dividendo alrededor de ese año.
Esta reducción del perfil de riesgo de la empresa nos permite bajar la WACC
desde 8,5% al 8% y subir el PO desde 11,3 a 12,5 EUR/ACC.
11
7
9 July 2015
Jul 14
Aug 14
Source: Factset
Sep 14
Oct 14
Nov 14
INDRA SISTEMAS
Dec 14
Jan 15
Feb 15
Mar 15
Apr 15
May 15
Jun 15
Stoxx Software & Computer Services (Rebased)
Shareholders: SEPI 20%; Fidelity 10%; Corporación
Financiera Alba 10%; Telefonica 3%;
For company description please see summary table footnote
Jul 15
No va ser un camino de rosas para Indra recobrar la rentabilidad perdida, pero el nuevo
foco en la rentabilidad y en la generación de caja, puede ayudarle.-Pensamos que este
punto y aparte en la historia de la empresa, puede permitir más confianza y que se
reduzcan los cortos en el valor. A pesar de ello el momento de resultados de 2015 y las
negociaciones para realizar la reducción de personal (aún no se sabe el coste), pueden
inducir volatilidad en el valor.
Analyst(s): Victor Peiro Pérez
+34 91 436 7812
[email protected]
For important disclosure information, please refer to the disclaimer page of this report
Produced by:
Distributed by the Members of ESN
(see last page of this report)
All ESN research is available on Bloomberg (“ESNR”),
Thomson-Reuters, Capital IQ, FactSet
Indra Sistemas
Indra Sistemas: Summary tables
PROFIT & LOSS (EURm)
Sales
Cost of Sales & Operating Costs
Non Recurrent Expenses/Income
EBITDA
EBITDA (adj.)*
Depreciation
EBITA
EBITA (adj)*
Amortisations and Write Downs
EBIT
EBIT (adj.)*
Net Financial Interest
Other Financials
Associates
Other Non Recurrent Items
Earnings Before Tax (EBT)
Tax
Tax rate
Discontinued Operations
Minorities
Net Profit (reported)
Net Profit (adj.)
12/2011
2,772
-2,476
17.6
314
296
-45.6
268
250
0.0
268
250
-35.8
-1.9
3.2
0.0
233
-52.2
22.4%
7.0
-0.1
181
181
12/2012
3,024
-2,733
-23.0
268
291
-51.2
217
240
0.0
217
240
-19.2
-34.6
-0.2
0.0
163
-35.7
21.9%
8.0
5.2
133
157
12/2013
2,989
-2,787
47.6
250
203
-51.9
198
151
0.0
198
151
-35.2
-28.8
12.4
0.0
147
-30.0
20.4%
9.0
-0.9
116
138
12/2014
3,031
-2,759
-4.1
268
272
-64.2
204
208
-246
-42.5
-38.4
-37.1
-26.9
-3.3
-1.7
-97.0
6.6
6.8%
10.0
-1.5
-91.9
-90.5
12/2015e
2,990
-2,755
-155
79.4
234
-67.1
12.3
167
0.0
-264
-109
-38.4
-26.9
0.0
0.0
-330
0.0
0.0%
11.0
0.0
-330
-206
12/2016e
3,091
-2,746
-10.0
335
345
-70.7
264
274
0.0
264
274
-37.5
-25.6
0.0
0.0
201
-42.2
21.0%
12.0
0.0
159
167
CASH FLOW (EURm)
Cash Flow from Operations before change in NWC
Change in Net Working Capital
Cash Flow from Operations
Capex
Net Financial Investments
Free Cash Flow
Dividends
Other (incl. Capital Increase & share buy backs)
Change in Net Debt
NOPLAT
12/2011
227
-102
125
-65.8
-45.4
13.6
-112
-94.4
-192
180
12/2012
179
-75.4
103
-21.5
-52.9
28.8
-55.8
-24.7
-51.7
173
12/2013
169
-29.8
139
-56.0
-14.1
68.7
-55.8
-295
-282
109
12/2014
222
213
435
-56.7
-12.9
365
0.0
-280
84.7
-27.7
12/2015e
14.1
18.8
32.9
-59.9
-15.0
-42.0
0.0
0.0
-42.0
-78.6
12/2016e
230
-41.1
188
-66.3
-15.0
107
0.0
0.0
107
197
BALANCE SHEET & OTHER ITEMS (EURm)
Net Tangible Assets
Net Intangible Assets (incl.Goodwill)
Net Financial Assets & Other
Total Fixed Assets
Inventories
Trade receivables
Other current assets
Cash (-)
Total Current Assets
Total Assets
Shareholders Equity
Minority
Total Equity
Long term interest bearing debt
Provisions
Other long term liabilities
Total Long Term Liabilities
Short term interest bearing debt
Trade payables
Other current liabilities
Total Current Liabilities
Total Liabilities and Shareholders' Equity
Net Capital Employed
Net Working Capital
12/2011
167
868
209
1,244
330
1,687
181
-81.9
2,281
3,525
1,046
21.4
1,067
314
109
204
628
281
1,262
287
1,830
3,525
1,894
640
12/2012
163
926
236
1,325
417
1,759
185
-69.8
2,431
3,756
1,089
20.7
1,110
398
75.0
227
700
305
1,345
296
1,946
3,756
2,045
711
12/2013
141
892
258
1,291
416
1,643
151
-363
2,574
3,865
1,124
10.7
1,135
790
99.3
148
1,037
196
1,199
299
1,693
3,865
2,005
707
12/2014
127
873
206
1,206
231
1,610
140
-294
2,275
3,481
941
12.7
954
826
40.4
45.8
912
131
1,193
292
1,616
3,481
1,702
489
12/2015e
80.1
637
221
937
222
1,592
140
-294
2,248
3,186
611
12.7
624
862
40.4
45.8
948
137
1,185
292
1,614
3,186
1,415
470
12/2016e
34.3
678
236
948
230
1,647
140
-294
2,312
3,260
770
12.7
783
770
40.4
45.8
856
122
1,207
292
1,621
3,260
1,467
511
GROWTH & MARGINS
Sales growth
EBITDA (adj.)* growth
EBITA (adj.)* growth
EBIT (adj)*growth
12/2011
5.4%
-9.9%
-12.5%
-12.5%
12/2012
9.1%
-1.6%
-4.1%
-4.1%
12/2013
-1.2%
-30.4%
-37.2%
-37.2%
12/2014
1.4%
34.4%
38.0%
n.m.
12/2015e
-1.4%
-13.9%
-19.6%
n.m.
12/2016e
3.4%
47.1%
63.9%
n.m.
Page 2
Indra Sistemas
Indra Sistemas: Summary tables
GROWTH & MARGINS
Net Profit growth
EPS adj. growth
DPS adj. growth
EBITDA (adj)* margin
EBITA (adj)* margin
EBIT (adj)* margin
12/2011
-16.3%
-16.2%
-0.3%
10.7%
9.0%
9.0%
12/2012
-13.1%
-13.1%
-50.0%
9.6%
7.9%
7.9%
12/2013
-12.3%
-12.3%
0.0%
6.8%
5.0%
5.0%
12/2014
n.m.
n.m.
n.m.
9.0%
6.9%
n.m.
12/2015e
n.m.
n.m.
12/2016e
n.m.
n.m.
7.8%
5.6%
n.m.
11.2%
8.9%
8.9%
RATIOS
Net Debt/Equity
Net Debt/EBITDA
Interest cover (EBITDA/Fin.interest)
Capex/D&A
Capex/Sales
NWC/Sales
ROE (average)
ROCE (adj.)
WACC
ROCE (adj.)/WACC
12/2011
0.5
1.6
8.7
144.3%
2.4%
23.1%
17.8%
10.8%
8.5%
1.3
12/2012
0.6
2.4
14.0
42.0%
0.7%
23.5%
14.7%
9.6%
8.5%
1.1
12/2013
0.5
2.5
7.1
107.9%
1.9%
23.6%
12.5%
6.2%
8.5%
0.7
12/2014
0.7
2.5
7.2
18.3%
1.9%
16.1%
-8.8%
-1.9%
8.0%
-0.2
12/2015e
1.1
8.9
2.1
89.2%
2.0%
15.7%
-26.5%
-6.6%
8.0%
-0.8
12/2016e
0.8
1.8
8.9
93.7%
2.1%
16.5%
24.1%
16.1%
8.0%
2.0
PER SHARE DATA (EUR)***
Average diluted number of shares
EPS (reported)
EPS (adj.)
BVPS
DPS
12/2011
162.6
1.11
1.11
6.56
0.68
12/2012
162.6
0.82
0.97
6.82
0.34
12/2013
162.6
0.71
0.85
6.98
0.34
12/2014
162.6
-0.57
-0.56
5.86
0.00
12/2015e
162.6
-2.03
-1.26
3.84
0.00
12/2016e
162.6
0.98
1.03
4.81
0.00
VALUATION
EV/Sales
EV/EBITDA
EV/EBITDA (adj.)*
EV/EBITA
EV/EBITA (adj.)*
EV/EBIT
EV/EBIT (adj.)*
P/E (adj.)
P/BV
Total Yield Ratio
EV/CE
OpFCF yield
OpFCF/EV
Payout ratio
Dividend yield (gross)
12/2011
0.8
6.9
7.3
8.0
8.6
8.0
8.6
8.8
1.5
3.5%
1.3
3.7%
2.7%
61.1%
6.9%
12/2012
0.8
8.6
7.9
10.6
9.6
10.6
9.6
10.4
1.5
3.4%
1.3
5.0%
3.6%
41.7%
3.4%
12/2013
0.9
10.5
13.0
13.3
17.4
13.3
17.4
14.3
1.7
0.0%
1.5
4.1%
3.1%
47.7%
2.8%
12/2014
0.7
7.5
7.3
9.8
9.6
n.m.
n.m.
n.m.
1.4
0.0%
1.3
28.5%
18.9%
0.0%
0.0%
12/2015e
0.8
30.4
10.3
196.3
14.4
n.m.
n.m.
n.m.
2.7
0.0%
2.0
-1.6%
-1.1%
0.0%
0.0%
12/2016e
0.7
6.9
6.7
8.7
8.4
8.7
8.4
10.1
2.1
0.0%
1.9
7.2%
5.3%
0.0%
0.0%
EV AND MKT CAP (EURm)
Price** (EUR)
Outstanding number of shares for main stock
Total Market Cap
Net Debt
o/w Cash & Marketable Securities (-)
o/w Gross Debt (+)
Other EV components
Enterprise Value (EV adj.)
Source: Company, BEKA Finance estimates.
12/2011
9.84
164.1
1,615
514
-82
596
21
2,150
12/2012
10.02
164.1
1,645
633
-70
703
21
2,299
12/2013
12.16
164.1
1,995
622
-363
986
11
2,628
12/2014
8.07
164.1
1,325
663
-294
957
13
2,000
12/2015e
10.34
164.1
1,696
705
-294
999
13
2,414
12/2016e
10.34
164.1
1,696
598
-294
891
13
2,307
Notes
* Where EBITDA (adj.) or EBITA (adj)= EBITDA (or EBITA) -/+ Non Recurrent Expenses/Income and where EBIT (adj)= EBIT-/+ Non Recurrent Expenses/Income - PPA amortisation
**Price (in local currency): Fiscal year end price for Historical Years and Current Price for current and forecasted years
Sector: Software & Computer Services/Computer Services
Company Description: Indra is a global company of technology, leader in high value-added solutions and services for the Transport and
Traffic, Energy and Industry, Public Administration and Healthcare, Finance, Insurance, Security and Defence, and Telecom and Media
sectors. Indra operates in over 100 countries and has around 40,000 employees worldwide .
Page 3
Indra Sistemas
ESN Recommendation System
The ESN Recommendation System is Absolute. It means that each stock is rated on the basis of a
total return, measured by the upside potential (including dividends and capital reimbursement) over a
12 month time horizon.
The ESN spectrum of recommendations (or ratings) for each stock comprises 5 categories: Buy (B),
Accumulate (A), Neutral (N), Reduce (R) and Sell (S).
Furthermore, in specific cases and for a limited period of time, the analysts are allowed to rate the
stocks as Rating Suspended (RS) or Not Rated (NR), as explained below.
Meaning of each recommendation or rating:
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
Buy: the stock is expected to generate total return of over 15% during the next 12 months time horizon
Accumulate: the stock is expected to generate total return of 5% to 15% during the next 12 months time
horizon
Neutral: the stock is expected to generate total return of -5% to +5% during the next 12 months time
horizon
Reduce: the stock is expected to generate total return of -5% to -15% during the next 12 months time
horizon
Sell: the stock is expected to generate total return under -15% during the next 12 months time horizon
Rating Suspended: the rating is suspended due to a change of analyst covering the stock or a capital
operation (take-over bid, SPO, …) where the issuer of the document (a partner of ESN) or a related party of
the issuer is or could be involved
Not Rated: there is no rating for a company being floated (IPO) by the issuer of the document (a partner of
ESN) or a related party of the issuer
Certain flexibility on the limits of total return bands is permitted especially during higher phases of
volatility on the markets
BEKA Finance Ratings Breakdown
Reduce Sell
0%
4%
Buy
29%
Neutral
28%
Accumulate
39%
History of ESN Recommendation System
Since 1 April 2015, the ESN Rec. System has been amended as follows:
• The term “Hold” has been replaced by the term “Neutral”
• Recommendations Total Return Range changed as showed in the picture at the start of the
page
Since 4 August 2008 until 30 March 2015, the previous ESN Rec. System was amended as
follow.
•
Time horizon changed to 12 months (previously it was 6 months)
•
Recommendations Total Return Range changed (see below):
SELL
REDUCE
-10%
HOLD
0%
10%
ACCUMULATE
20%
BUY
Since 18 October 2004, the Members of ESN are using an Absolute Recommendation System
(before was a Relative Rec. System) to rate any single stock under coverage.
SELL
REDUCE
-15%
HOLD
0%
5%
ACCUMULATE
15%
BUY
Page 4
Indra Sistemas
Recommendation history for INDRA SISTEMAS
Date
09-Jul-15
21-Nov-14
26-Jun-14
27-Feb-14
04-Oct-13
13-Mar-13
Recommendation
Accumulate
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Buy
Buy
Target price
12.50
11.30
15.00
14.50
14.50
11.30
Price at change date
10.34
8.39
13.01
13.27
11.73
9.30
Source: Factset & ESN, price data adjusted for stock splits.
This chart shows BEKA Finance continuing coverage of this stock; the current analyst may or may not have covered it over the entire period. Current analyst:
Victor Peiro Pérez (since 01/07/2013)
16
15
14
13
12
11
10
9
8
7
6
Jun
14
Jul
14
Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun
14
14
14
14
14
15
15 15
15
15
15
Price history
Buy
Accumulat
Jul
15
Target price history
Neut
Reduce
Sell
Not rated
Information regarding Market Abuse and Conflicts of Interests and recommendation history available in our web
page: www.bekafinance.com and our offices
The information and opinions contained in this document have been compiled by BEKA Finance S.V., S.A., from
sources believed to be reliable. This document is not intended to be an offer, or a solicitation to buy or sell
relevant securities. BEKA Finance S.V., S.A., will not take any responsibility whatsoever for losses which may
derive from use of the present document or its contents, BEKA Finance S.V., S.A., can occasionally have
positions in some of the securities mentioned in this report, through its trading portfolio or negotiation.
Additionally, there can exist a commercial relation between BEKA Finance S.V., S.A., and the mentioned
companies.
As of the date of this report, BEKA Finance S.V., S.A.,
• acts as agent or liquidity provider for the following companies: AB Biotics; Bioorganic Research
Services SA; Carbures Europa SA; Euroepes S.A; Facephi Biometría SA., Hispania Activos
Inmobiliarios, S.A.,Lumar Natural Seafood, NBI Bearings Europe S.A.
• has in the last 12 months, participated as lead or co-lead manager in corporate operations with the
following companies: Aena, Aucalsa; Audax Energía, Ebioss Energy; Endesa, Grupo Ezentis S.A., NBI
Bearings Europe S.A,
• has, during the last year, performed a significant amount of business with: AB Biotics; Bankia; Carbures
Europa SA, Ferrovial.
• has a contractual relationship to provide financial services, through which BEKA Finance S.V.,S.A.,
executes orders on the treasury stocks of the following companies: CaixaBank S.A., Grupo Ezentis S.A.
• has a liquidity contract as outlined by the CNMV's Circular 3/2007 with: Indra Sistemas; FCC; Sacyr.
Page 5
Disclaimer:
These reports have been prepared and issued by the Members of European
Securities Network LLP (‘ESN’). ESN, its Members and their affiliates (and any
director, officer or employee thereof), are neither liable for the proper and
complete transmission of these reports nor for any delay in their receipt. Any
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ESN Member websites:
www.bancaakros.it regulated by the CONSOB - Commissione Nazionale per le Società e la Borsa
www.bekafinance.com regulated by CNMV - Comisión Nacional del Mercado de Valores
www.caixabi.pt regulated by the CMVM - Comissão do Mercado de Valores Mobiliários
www.cmcics.com regulated by the AMF - Autorité des marchés financiers
www.degroof.be regulated by the FSMA - Financial Services and Markets Authority
www.equinet-ag.de regulated by the BaFin - Bundesanstalt für Finanzdienstleistungsaufsicht
www.ibg.gr regulated by the HCMC - Hellenic Capital Market Commission
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www.snssecurities.nl regulated by the AFM - Autoriteit Financiële Markten
Indra Sistemas
Spain
Software & Computer Services
Members of ESN (European Securities Network LLP)
Banca Akros S.p.A.
Viale Eginardo, 29
20149 MILANO
Italy
Phone: +39 02 43 444 389
Fax: +39 02 43 444 302
Equinet Bank AG
Gräfstraße 97
60487 Frankfurt am Main
Germany
Phone:+49 69 – 58997 – 410
Fax:+49 69 – 58997 – 299
Bank Degroof
Rue de I’Industrie 44
1040 Brussels
Belgium
Phone: +32 2 287 91 16
Fax: +32 2 231 09 04
Investment Bank of Greece
32 Aigialeias Str & Paradissou,
151 25 Maroussi,
Greece
Tel: +30 210 81 73 383
BEKA Finance
C/ Marques de Villamagna 3
28001 Madrid
Spain
Phone: +34 91 436 7813
Pohjola Bank plc
P.O.Box 308
FI- 00013 Pohjola
Finland
Phone: +358 10 252 011
Fax: +358 10 252 2703
Caixa-Banco de Investimento
Rua Barata Salgueiro, nº 33
1269-057 Lisboa
Portugal
Phone: +351 21 313 73 00
Fax: +351 21 389 68 98
CM - CIC Securities
6, avenue de Provence
75441 Paris
Cedex 09
France
Phone: +33 1 53 48 80 78
Fax: +33 1 53 48 82 25
SNS Securities N.V.
Nieuwezijds Voorburgwal 162
P.O.Box 235
1000 AE Amsterdam
The Netherlands
Phone: +31 20 550 8500
Fax: +31 20 626 8064