Examining the Wounds
NOVEMBER 2013
In the wake of the government shutdown, two issues that
could cause each party to hemorrhage support ahead of
next year’s election have come to the fore: Obamacare
for Democrats and the Tea Party for Republicans.
What are the perceptions of each party as a result of
consistent and unified Democratic messaging during the
shutdown? Can Democrats win a direct exchange over
Obamacare, or should they continue to pivot to other
issues? Does an affiliation with the Tea Party hurt a
Republican as much as being radical or reckless?
With data from our most recent national survey, this
month’s GSGCompass leads the way in examining these
wounds and offers guidance on cauterizing Democrats
while making sure Republicans continue to bleed from
their self-inflicted cuts.
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GOP is reckless, risks economy, and opposes solutions,
but so far, no Democratic advantage with key voters
The longer the government shutdown dragged on, the more Democrats in Congress spoke with
one voice in opposing Republicans, incorporating recommendations from previous GSGCompass
editions. Democrats are defining themselves as the party of reasonable solutions while defining
the Republicans as reckless, irresponsible, and willing to risk the economy for a political agenda.
So is the message resonating?
The good news: A solid majority of all registered voters as well as non-partisan undecideds – an
approximation of swing voters – agree Republicans are “acting recklessly and irresponsibly” (62%
of all voters; 71% of non-partisan undecideds), “pushing an agenda that puts the economy at risk”
(62% of all voters; 68% of non-partisan undecideds), and “opposing reasonable, common sense
solutions” (53% of all voters; 54% of non-partisan undecideds).
The not so good news: While Democrats maintain a small advantage on these three traits with
voters overall, the opinions of non-partisan undecideds are split. This suggests one of two things:
either Democrats’ message has not yet reached voters who are less engaged OR the message was
driven successfully against Republicans but not in a way that established a contrast. The most
troubling piece of data is 32% of non-partisan undecideds saying Democrats push an agenda that
puts the economy at risk, compared to 27% who say that is a description that best fits the GOP.
Is ___ a better description of Democrats in Congress or Republicans in Congress?
Offering reasonable,
common sense solutions
Republicans
in Congress
31%
Registered
Voters
Democrats
in Congress
21%
27%
43%
Acting recklessly
and irresponsibly
25%
40%
Non-Partisan
Undecideds
40%
40%
23%
2
Pushing an agenda that
puts the economy at risk
32%
35%
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26%
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The “Tea Party” label is a negative for the GOP,
but it has limited value as a stand-in for other attacks
The bull is back in the china shop, thanks to the antics and ambitions of a Lone Star and a crop of
new primary rabble-rousers to rival the ghosts, and witches, of failed Tea Parties past. So is an
affiliation with the Tea Party a potent negative once again, as well? And if so, just how potent?
Opinions of the “Tea Party” are unquestionably negative (32% fav/44% unfav), and specifying “Tea
Party Movement” (32% fav/44% unfav) or “Tea Party Republicans” (31% fav/46% unfav) has
similar results. But “Tea Party Republicans in Congress” yields a notably higher unfavorable rating
both overall (32% fav/51% unfav) and with non-partisan undecideds (18% fav/50% unfav).
Despite such negative opinions, voters are much less concerned about candidates who are
“closely affiliated with the Tea Party” (32%) than they are with candidates “whose actions have
been reckless and irresponsible” (53%) or “whose policies have put the economy at risk” (53%).
The same holds true for non-partisan undecideds, more than twice as many of whom are more
concerned with reckless and irresponsible actions (58%) than with Tea Party affiliation (24%).
Though “Tea Party” is not a good stand-in or shorthand for those behavioral descriptions, it is a
more effective qualifier than an ideological label – “radical.” A “Liberal Democrat” has a 10-point
advantage over a “Tea Party Republican” but an 8-point advantage over a “Radical Republican.”
Among non-partisan undecideds, a “Radical Republican” gives a “Liberal Democrat” a 2-point
advantage, but a “Tea Party Republican” leads to a 7-point advantage.
Who would you be more concerned about having as your member of Congress?
Reckless/irresponsible
Puts economy at risk
Liberal Democrat
Liberal Democrat
Tea Party affiliation
Tea Party affiliation
Radical Republican
Tea Party Republican
58%
53%
53%
46%
32%
3
32%
49%
45%
37%
24%
27%
Reg Voters Non-P Und
Reg Voters Non-P Und
32% 34%
Reg Voters Non-P Und
39%
36%
29%
Reg Voters Non-P Und
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Pivoting to attack the shutdown is more effective, but
Democrats can win by engaging directly on Obamacare
Thanks to the GOP’s failed attempts to repeal the ACA, Democrats are armed with very effective
messages about the Republican desire to return control of health care to insurance companies. Up
until now though, most Democrats have chosen not to engage directly and pivot to other issues in
order to avoid discussing Obamacare altogether.
Now, with implementation underway and glitches dominating headlines, Democrats again must
decide: pivot or engage. Attempts to avoid the issue this cycle will almost certainly fail, so the
question is whether to engage on substance or pivot to the reckless GOP effort to defund the law.
The data is clear: Democrats can win the issue regardless of which tact they choose, but pivoting
provides a more decisive win. Nearly half of registered voters (49%) are more concerned with
Republicans shutting down government and threatening default than they are with Democrats
continuing to implement the law, which is more concerning for 39%. That compares to 41% who
are more concerned with Republicans repealing the law and giving power back to insurance
companies than with Democrats continuing implementation (39%). However, among non-partisan
undecideds, the difference between pivoting and engaging is negligible (an 11 vs. 10-point win).
Engaging on substance likely will not work in some districts, so pivoting will be necessary. But
pivoting does nothing to firm up long-term support for the program, so the more Democrats who
engage directly and win, the better off the party will be on this issue in future cycles.
Thinking about the Affordable Care Act, or Obamacare, what concerns you more?
Registered
Voters
Non-Partisan
Undecideds
Democrats will continue implementing
the law despite the cost and massive
problems signing up for insurance on
the government web site.
Republicans tried to repeal the law by threatening
default on the debt, risking the full faith and credit
of the U.S., and shutting down government, which
S&P says cost our economy $24 billion.
39%
49%
30%
Democrats will continue implementing
the law despite the cost and massive
problems signing up for insurance on
the government web site.
Registered
Voters
Non-Partisan
Undecideds
4
39%
29%
41%
Republicans want to repeal but not replace the law,
allowing insurance companies to go back to denying
coverage of preexisting conditions, charging women
more for coverage and imposing lifetime caps.
41%
39%
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FINAL DIAGNOSIS
Any hemorrhaging over the Tea Party or Obamacare is
unlikely to prove fatal to either party’s electoral chances
Though unpopular, the Tea Party by itself is not the most effective way for Democrats to
define Republicans. And Democrats are armed with messages that not only rebut Republican
attacks on Obamacare but turn the issue in their favor.
Even one of the more incendiary charges Republicans will try to level can be turned against
them by putting it in context. Just 39% of voters, and 31% of non-partisan undecideds, are
more concerned “that Democrats voted to keep a special Obamacare subsidy for themselves
and their staff,” compared to 48% of voters overall and 41% of non-partisan undecideds who
are more concerned “that Republicans shut down the government over Obamacare and
wasted time with political games designed to help them in the next election while the
economy was losing $24 billion.”
KEY COMPASS POINTS
On Obamacare:
. → Engaging on substance, noting GOP plan to give control back to insurance companies,
is just as effective as pivoting to the shutdown with non-partisan undecideds.
→ It is better for the party in the long-term if more candidates engage rather than pivot,
but individual districts should dictate which tactic is used.
→ Putting the Congressional subsidy vote in the context of the shutdown is effective at
turning the issue back on Republicans.
-
On the Tea Party:
→ “Tea Party Republicans in Congress” is more effective than “Tea Party,” “Tea Party
Movement,” or even “Tea Party Republicans.”
→ “Tea Party” is a more effective label than “radical,” but it is NOT a good replacement
for “reckless and irresponsible” or “puts the economy at risk.”
→ Most voters believe the GOP is reckless and irresponsible, puts the economy at risk,
and opposes reasonable solutions, but Democrats have yet to drive those contrasts.
METHODOLOGY: This month’s GSGCompass summarizes results from a national survey of 1,000 registered voters
conducted via telephone October 20-23, 2013. Special care has been taken to ensure geographic and
demographic divisions of the electorate are properly represented. The margin of error for 1,000 voters at the 95%
confidence level is +/- 3.1%; the margin of error for the split samples of 500 voters each is +/- 4.4%; the margin of
error for the sub-sample of 221 non-partisan undecided voters (those who do not state a preference for either
candidate on the generic ballot and do not self-identify as “strong Democrat” or “strong Republican”) is +/- 6.6%.
5
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