long-term value in a short-term market: is exchange

LONG-TERM VALUE IN A SHORT-TERM
MARKET: IS EXCHANGE BUSINESS
TURNOVER IMPACTING THE
PHARMACEUTICAL VALUE EQUATION?
SCAN TO DOWNLOAD
Capuano C1, Curran K1, Meinkow E2, Suponcic S1
Navigant Life Sciences, USA, 2Navigant Healthcare, USA
1
BACKGROUND
ƒƒ The Affordable Care Act established federal and state health insurance exchanges to expand access to affordable medical coverage in the US.
ƒƒ This research examines rates of switching among re-enrollees on the health insurance exchanges and compares to other lines of business.
ƒƒ We then consider the time horizon over which US payers are willing to consider pharmacoeconomic value in formulary decision-making; the extent to
which expectations pertaining to accrual of value differ for exchange as compared to other lines of business; and implications for manufacturers of
products whose health gains or costs offsets accrue over the longer term.
METHODOLOGY
ƒƒ Secondary Research: Review of publicly available reports from federal and state health authorities which include information and figures on
rates of switching among exchange re-enrollees for the federally facilitated marketplace (FFM) and select state-based marketplaces (SBM).
ƒƒ Primary Research: Rapid web survey of US health care payers (N=27) responsible for pharmacy benefit management. Survey instrument
designed to: (1) obtain self-reported plan-level data on rate of turnover by line of business, (2) quantify the time horizon over which cost offsets
and health gains are considered by US payers when evaluating pharmaceuticals, and (3) explore implications for manufacturers in markets
with high or increasing turnover.
ƒƒ Sample Design: Respondents represented managed care organizations (MCO), pharmacy benefit managers (PBM), and integrated payer/
provider systems (IPPS) covering 107mn lives in total with a pharmacy benefit (excluding PBMs); including organizations both with (n=21) and
without (n=6) exchange business (for comparative purposes). N=19 identified as Pharmacy Director; 8 as Medical Director.
Organizations Represented
Lives Represented
National MCO
Commercial: Off-Exchange
Regional MCO - national formulary
Commercial: Exchange
Stand Alone PDP
Regional MCO - formulary autonomy
Medicare Advantage: MA-PD
Independent regional plan
Managed Medicaid
PBM
Federal Employee Health Plan
IDN/IHS
DoD/Tricare
RESULTS
SECONDARY RESEARCH RESULTS
Table 1. Switching of Plans or Insurers by Exchange Re-enrollees
FFM
Average
FFM
State Range
Table 2. Historical Benchmarks for Other Lines of Business
SBM
(Available Data)
20142015Open
Enrollment
29%2
11-37% 3
ƒƒ CA: 6% Insurers 2
ƒƒ CO: 18% Insurers 2
ƒƒ RI: 62% Plan or Insurer2
20152016Open
Enrollment
43% 3
19-73% 3
ƒƒ OR: 28% Plan 1
Employee Sponsored Insurance (2010)
2.8% 3
Federal Employee Health Benefits Program (2001)
12% 3
Medicare Drug Plans (4 Enrollment Periods)
13% 3
ƒƒ Federal and state data indicates higher rates of switching of insurer/plan by exchange re-enrollees as compared to other lines of business.
ƒƒ There is wide variation in turnover of exchange members at the state level.
PRIMARY RESEARCH RESULTS
Figure 1. Self-reported plan turnover (2015-2016), by line of business
75%
25%
50%
0%
25%
Percent Responses Percent Responses
50%
100%
50%
75%
25%
50%
0%
Off-Exchange
25%
<10%
Stand Alone
Stand Alone
Managed
Off-Exchange
Exchange
Exchange MA-PDPDP
MA-PD
PDP
Medicaid
Managed
FEHPMedicaidDoD/Tricare
FEHP
10-15% <10%
16-20%
10-15%
21-25%
16-20%
26-30%
21-25%
31-35%
26-30%
36-40%
31-35%
DoD/Tricare
ƒƒ There<10%
is wide
variation
in21-25%
exchange
turnover
at the
plan36-40%
level
10-15%
16-20%
21-25%
26-30%
31-35%
10-15% <10%
16-20%
26-30%
31-35%
36-40%
50%
75%
25%
50%
0%
25%
75%
100%
50%
75%
25%
50%
0%
Off-Exchange
25%
Slowing
25%
50%
0%
25%
25%
50%
0%
Off-Exchange
25%
<1 Year
0%
Stand Alone
Stand Alone
Managed
Off-Exchange
Exchange
Exchange MA-PD
MA-PD
PDP
PDP
Medicaid
Managed
FEHPMedicaidDoD/Tricare
FEHP
<1 Year3 Years
2 Years5 Years
3 Years7 Years
5 Years10 Years
7 Years
2 Years
DoD/Tricare
<1 Year
Stand AloneManaged
Stand Exchange
Alone
Off-Exchange
MA-PD
Exchange
MA-PDPDP
PDP
Medicaid
Managed
FEHP
FEHPMedicaidDoD/Tricare
<1 Year3 Years
2 Years5 Years
3 Years7 Years
5 Years10 Years
7 Years
2 Years
75%
25%
50%
0%
25%
10 Years
0%
DoD/Tricare
10 Years
ƒƒ Except for federal employee and military plans, more than seventy-five
percent (75%) of respondents indicate that cost/resource offsets and
health gains must accrue within three years in order to be relevant or
meaningful for formulary decision-making
SlowingStatic
StaticIncreasing
Increasing
50%
75%
25%
50%
0%
Off-Exchange
25%
Stand Alone
Stand Alone
Managed
Off-Exchange
Exchange MA-PD
Exchange
MA-PD
PDP
PDP
Medicaid
More Willing
0%
Off-Exchange
50%
Percent Responses Percent Responses
100%
Percent Responses Percent Responses
75%
100%
Percent Responses Percent Responses
75%
100%
50%
DoD/Tricare
Increasing
Figure 4. Trend in willingness to pay today for long-term cost/ resource offsets
and health gains, by line of business
100%
75%
StaticIncreasing
100%
100%
75%
75%
SlowingStatic
Managed
FEHPMedicaidDoD/Tricare
FEHP
ƒƒ Twenty-nine
percent
0% (29%) of surveyed payers with an exchange line of
0%
Stand AloneManaged
Managed
Stand Exchange
Alone
Off-Exchange
business indicate
an Exchange
increasing
trendMA-PD
in
exchange
turnover;
FEHP
DoD/Tricare
Off-Exchange
MA-PDbusiness
FEHPMedicaidDoD/Tricare
PDP
PDP
Medicaid
surpassed only by DoD/Tricare (40%)
75%
50%
Stand Alone
Stand Alone
Managed
Off-Exchange
Exchange
Exchange MA-PD
MA-PD
PDP
PDP
Medicaid
Slowing
100%
Figure 3. Time period over which cost/resource offsets and health gains are
considered meaningful, by line of business
Percent Responses Percent Responses
100%
36-40%
ƒƒ0%Plan-level
0%data confirms higher turnover for exchange as compared to
Stand AloneManaged
Managed
Stand Exchange
Alone
other
lines Exchange
of
business;
surpassed
only
by Managed
Medicaid
Off-Exchange
FEHP
DoD/Tricare
Off-Exchange
MA-PD
FEHPMedicaidDoD/Tricare
MA-PDPDP
PDP
Medicaid
100%
100%
75%
75%
Percent Responses Percent Responses
Percent Responses Percent Responses
75%
100%
100%
100%
Percent Responses Percent Responses
100%
Figure 2. Self-reported trend in turnover, by line of business
0%
Off-Exchange
More Willing
No Change
Stand AloneManaged
Stand Exchange
Alone
Off-Exchange
MA-PD
Exchange
MA-PDPDP
PDP
Medicaid
More Willing
More Willing
No Change
Managed
FEHP
FEHPMedicaidDoD/Tricare
No Change
Less Willing
Managed
FEHP
FEHPMedicaidDoD/Tricare
No Change
Less Willing
DoD/Tricare
Less Willing
DoD/Tricare
Less Willing
ƒƒ Thirty-three percent (33%) of surveyed payers with an exchange line of
business indicate that their organization is becoming less willing to pay
today for long-term value; surpassed only by Managed Medicaid (43%)
CONCLUSIONS
ƒƒ It can be challenging for manufacturers to substantiate the long-term value of treatment innovation to US payers due to turnover of insured
populations. Across lines of business, the majority of US payers consider cost offsets and health gains meaningful only if accrued within three
years or sooner.
ƒƒ There is variability in exchange business turnover at a state and plan level, with relatively high rates in some markets vs. other lines of business
and more comparable rates in other markets. In markets with relatively high exchange turnover, there may be an impact on willingness to pay
today for long-term pharmaceutical value on the part of some payers. We suggest that the issue may be addressed locally. Strategic options for
manufacturers will depend on the differential characteristics of the disease; linking the intervention to nearer-term offsets and health gains is a
preferred approach.
Sources: OR Health Insurance 2016 Report Addendum (2016), Ahn S. Six State
Experiences with Marketplace Renewals (2015) , Dleire T. APSE Issue Brief 2015
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