Coconino County Facts, Trends &
Projections
Comprehensive Plan Committee
February 27, 2014
John Aber, Assistant Director
Coconino County Facts, Trends &
Projections
Acknowledgements
 Bill Towler, Retired CD Director
 Wayne Fox, Arizona Rural Policy Institute
2
Coconino County Population
140,000
Total Population
120,000
100,000
80,000
60,000
40,000
20,000
-
1950
1960
1970
1980
1990
2000
2010
Year
16%
Increase between 2000 and 2010
39%
Increase between 1990 and 2010
462% Increase between 1950 and 2010
US Census
Coconino County Population
1950
23,910
1960
41,857
1970
48,326
1980
78,008
1990
96,591
2000
116,320
2010
134,421
3
Coconino County
Annual Population Growth Rates
1.5%
2000-2010
1.9%
1990-2000
2.2%
1980-1990
4.9%
1970-1980
1.4%
1960-1970
5.8%
1950-1960
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
1950-2010 – 2.9% Average Annual Growth Rate
4
US Census
Coconino County Land Area
 18,617 Square Miles
 11,887,000 Acres
 Population Density (2010)
 Coconino County - 6.85 persons per square
mile
 Arizona – 56.3 persons per square mile
 United States – 87.4 persons per square mile
US Census
5
Coconino County Land Ownership
7%
Reservation
5%
10%
39%
Forest Service
Private Property
12%
State Land
27%
Other/Public Lands
Bureau of Land
Management
Coconino County Adopted Budget 2011
6
Private Land Owners
Nine entities own 70%
or 1,012,300 acres of
all privately owned
land in Coconino
County
7
Bill Towler
Incorporated Community Populations
90,000
80,000
70,000
60,000
50,000
40,000
2000
30,000
2010
20,000
10,000
0
Flagstaff
Greater
Flagstaff
Page
Williams
City or Town
Flagstaff
Greater Flagstaff*
Page
Williams
Fredonia
Sedona (Coconino County)
Tusayan
US Census
Fredonia
2000
52,894
69,148
6,809
2,842
1,036
2,963
562
Sedona
Tusayan
(Coconino
County)
2010
65,870
85,151
7,247
3,023
1,314
2,842
558
* Greater Flagstaff includes the FMPO region
10
Select Unincorporated-Census
Designated Places Populations
9
US Census
Native American Reservation Populations
within Coconino County
10
US Census
Race in Coconino County
African
American
1%
Asian/
Pacific
Islander
1%
Other
4%
Two or
More Races
2%
Native
American
29%
2000
Asian/Pacific Islander
2%
White
63%
Other
5%
Two or More Races
3%
African American
1%
Native American
27%
White
62%
2010
11
US Census
Average Household Size
1990
2.99
2000 % Change
2.8 -6.8%
2010 % Change
2.69 -3.9%
Average Family Size
1990
3.54
2000
3.36
% Change
-5.4%
2010
3.26
% Change
-3.0%
12
US Census
Coconino County Income Comparison
in Nominal Dollars
% Change,
1990-2000
2010
% Change,
2000-2010
$ 30,648 $ 45,873
50%
$ 53,187
16%
Median Household Income $ 26,112 $ 38,256
730
3,422
Number of Households with
Income >$100K
47%
$ 42,130
10%
369%
5,409
58%
1990
Median Family Income
2000
Between 1990 and 2000, median family incomes in dollars rose 50%
and median household income rose 47%. Between 2000 and 2010
median family income rose 16% and median household income rose
10%. The number of households earning over $100,000 rose by
369% between 1990 and 2000, and 58% between 2000 and 2010.
13
US Census
Income Comparison in 2010 Dollars
1990
Coconino County
Median Family Income
Median Household Income
$
$
$
$
61,464
49,910
$
$
47,054
42,310
60,041
50,072
2000
$
1990
Rural Coconino County*
Median Family Income
Median Household Income
$
$
1990
Flagstaff
Median Family Income
Median Household Income
53,895
45,918
2000
63,384
48,619
2000
$
$
57,254
51,283
% Change,
1990-2000
11%
9%
2010
$
$
% Change,
1990-2000
3%
-3%
2010
$
$
% Change,
1990-2000
22%
21%
53,187
42,130
56,839
45,042
2010
$
$
49,678
39,332
% Change,
2000-2010
-11%
-16%
% Change,
2000-2010
-10%
-7%
% Change,
2000-2010
-13%
-23%
*Rural Coconino County is the County outside of Flagstaff
14
ACS Estimates 1990, 2000, 2010; US Bureau of Labor Statistics Inflation Calculator
Educational Attainment 25 yrs +
Coconino County
6%
8%
18%
13%
4%
Flagstaff
6%
17%
19%
24%
21%
7%
24%
7%
25%
Rural Coconino County (minus Flagstaff)
9%
<9th
15%
9-12 (no diploma)
HS grad
Some College, No
Diploma
Associates
7%
9%
7%
27%
26%
Bachelors
Grad or Professional
Degree
American Community Survey, 2005-2009
29
Total Housing Units
1990
42,914
US Census
Total Housing Units, Coconino County
∆
2000
∆
25%
53,443
18%
2010
63,321
16
Tenure of Occupied
Housing Units
39%
Owner Occupied
61%
Renter Occupied
Flagstaff
Coconino County
US Census
52%
48%
17
Recent Home Sales, Flagstaff
Month
Year Number Sold Median Price
January
2011
41
$
Median Size Price/Square
(sq feet)
Foot
267,000
2,116
$
144
July
2010
82
$
296,000
1,915
$
155
January
2010
38
$
300,000
1,788
$
146
July
2009
83
$
300,000
2,014
$
149
January
2009
31
$
315,000
1,790
$
176
July
2008
79
$
315,000
1,732
$
202
$320,000
$310,000
$300,000
$290,000
$280,000
$270,000
$260,000
$250,000
$240,000
July, 2008
January, 2009
July, 2009
January, 2010
July, 2010
January, 2011
39
Northern Arizona Association of Realtors
Coconino County Building
Permits
Year
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
Buildings Residential Construction Costs
Units
(millions)
702
949 $
111
598
683 $
99
857
877 $
115
841
865 $
119
900
1,189 $
148
899
910 $
165
821
1,080 $
175
838
1,080 $
184
474
477 $
103
279
283 $
66
155
482 $
54
Annual New Privately-Owned Residential Building Permits in Coconino
County. US Census Bureau.
19
Coconino County Building
Permits
Annual New Privately-Owned Residential Building Permits in Coconino
County. US Census Bureau.
20
Unemployment
14%
Arizona
Coconino County
Rural Coconino County
Flagstaff
United States
12%
10%
8%
6%
4%
2%
0%
2002
Arizona
Coconino County
Rural Coconino County
Flagstaff
United States
2003
2004
2002
6.0%
5.4%
7.1%
3.8%
5.8%
2003
5.7%
5.7%
7.4%
3.9%
6.0%
2005
2004
5.0%
5.3%
6.9%
3.6%
5.5%
2006
2005
4.7%
4.9%
6.5%
3.4%
5.1%
2007
2006
4.1%
4.3%
5.6%
2.9%
4.6%
2008
2007
3.8%
3.7%
4.8%
3.7%
4.6%
2009
2008
5.9%
5.3%
7.0%
3.7%
5.8%
2010
2009
9.7%
8.3%
10.8%
5.3%
9.3%
2010
10.0%
8.9%
11.6%
5.9%
9.7%
Rural Coconino County is the county outside of Flagstaff
State of Arizona Research Center
21
Poverty in Coconino County
Total Population, Coconino County
Under 18, Coconino County
Total Population, Rural Coconino County
Under 18, Rural Coconino County
40.0%
35.0%
30.0%
25.0%
20.0%
15.0%
10.0%
5.0%
0.0%
2007
2008
2007
2008
2009
2010
2009
2010
Coconino County
Rural Coconino County
Total Population Under 18 Total Population Under 18
15.9%
19.5%
16.3%
22.6%
15.8%
20.5%
16.2%
23.5%
17.9%
22.5%
17.6%
25.3%
25.9%
29.7%
25.9%
35.9%
Rural Coconino County is the county outside of Flagstaff
American Community Survey, 2007-2010
22
Employment
Industry
2000
2005
2010
2011
State and Local Government
16,800
15,900
16,300
16,400
Leisure and Hospitality
11,200
12,400
12,300
12,500
Trade, Transportation, and Utilities
9,600
9,600
9,500
9,600
Educational and Health Services
5,800
7,100
8,000
8,100
Manufacturing
2,900
3,300
3,700
3,800
Federal Government
3,400
3,100
3,200
2,900
Professional and Business Services
2,600
3,400
2,600
2,600
Mining and Construction
2,800
3,300
2,000
2,000
Other Services
1,200
1,900
1,800
1,800
Financial Activities
1,600
1,700
1,300
1,300
500
500
400
400
Information
Average Number of Employees within Coconino County by Year.
Arizona Department of Economic Security
23
Poverty Comparison
Total Population in Poverty
Under 18 in Poverty
21%
15%
17%
21%
18%
13%
7% 11%
65+ in Poverty
19%
11%
9%
Arizona
Area
Arizona
Coconino County
Flagstaff
Total
Population in
Poverty
15%
17%
18%
Families in Poverty
Coconino County
10%
Flagstaff
Under 18 in
Poverty
65+ in Poverty
Families in
Poverty
21%
21%
19%
7%
13%
9%
11%
11%
10%
2005-2009 American Community Survey, US Census Bureau
24
Coconino County Workforce Growth
80,000
70,000
60,000
76,599
62,496
50,000
40,000
30,000
20,000
10,000
2000
2010
2000-2010 Workforce Change:
23%
Arizona Department of Administration, Local Area Unemployment Statistics
25
2009 Transportation
Commuting Method
Median Travel Time to Work
Flagstaff
Coconino
County
Arizona
United
States
15.3 minutes 18 Minutes 24.9 Minutes 25.2 Minutes
Drive Alone
66%
68%
75%
76%
Carpool
15%
14%
13%
11%
Public Transportation
1%
1%
2%
5%
Walk
7%
7%
2%
3%
Other Means
7%
4%
2%
2%
Work at Home
5%
6%
5%
4%
2005-2009 American Community Survey, 5-Year Estimates
26
Public Transportation:
Average Monthly Mountain Line
Ridership
100,000
86,125
90,000
74,933
80,000
70,000
92,938
60,948
60,000
51,159
50,000
35,528
40,000
24,551
30,000
20,000
30,070
15,959
10,000
-
24.6% Average Annual Increase in Ridership, 2002-2010
NAIPTA
27
Coconino County Facts, Trends &
Projections
Discussion
28