Changing Proportional Distributions of Total Soybean Expenses Over Time Within a State Research Verification Program C. Robert Stark, Jr. and Kelly J. Bryant University of Arkansas at Monticello School of Agriculture /UA Southeast Research & Extension Center P.O. Box 3508 Monticello, Arkansas 71656 Selected Paper prepared for presentation at the Southern Agricultural Economics Association’s 2016 Annual Meeting, San Antonio, Texas, February 6-9, 2016 Copyright 2016 by C. Robert Stark, Jr. and Kelly J. Bryant. All rights reserved. Readers may make verbatim copies of this document for non-commercial purposes by any means, provided that this copyright notice appears on all such copies. ABSTRACT The Arkansas Soybean Research Verification Program (AR SRVP) has provided demonstrations of optimal management responses in soybean production for 30 years. This period has seen the adoption of early soybean production systems and increasingly widespread use of various irrigation approaches. Cooperating producers across the state have worked with county agents and state extension specialists to produce crops under top management conditions and refine extension recommendations. Individual field and cooperator agronomic and economic results have been published to benefit producers across the state and beyond. While considerable attention has been given to total costs of production, limited study has been made into the changes in distribution of these costs among expense categories. This study examines changes in magnitude of expenses and percentage distributions among major expense categories. Irrigated, early season soybean production system records are examined for a ten year period to identify expense changes that have been experienced. The distribution of expenses by commonly used categories is then calculated and compared to national results from periodic USDA/NASS surveys. A better understanding of the distributional changes in expenses borne by soybean producers can have benefits in crop enterprise decision making and facilitate financing procedures for both producers and land owners. KEY WORDS Soybean, verification program, proportional expense distributions, threshold recommendations. INTRODUCTION The production of soybean in the United States has expanded dramatically in recent decades. This growth is especially prominent in the Mid-South Area including Arkansas. A contributing factor to acreage and production increases within the state has been the Arkansas Soybean Research Verification Program (SRVP) funded by the Arkansas Soybean Promotion Board and coordinated through the Cooperative Extension Service of the UA Division of Agriculture. Local County Extension Agents identify potential cooperating producers within their county and jointly submit a specific field for entry in the program. The field may be selected due to a unique existing condition that will require special management or may simply be chosen for its demonstration potential. The SRVP coordinators promise to visit the field as needed and provide management recommendations covering all aspects of crop production throughout the cropping season. The producer agrees to follow the recommendations as given. The overall goals are to follow standard extension service guidelines to maximize economic profits. Records are kept of all practices and inputs used on each field. Yields are calculated by a team comprised of the SRVP coordinators, county agents, and state soybean specialists. All data is provided to an extension economist who generates the economic profitability of each field including breakeven prices and categories of operating and ownership expenses. SRVP coordinators discuss the results with each producer. An annual report is published each year and made available to county agents, industry representatives, and all soybean producers. An extensive agronomic and economic database has been assembled from the cooperating producers’ fields and provides historical insights into changes in production practices that have occurred and their resulting economic impacts. BACKGROUND and PREVIOUS STUDIES The Arkansas SRVP database is not the only source of costs and returns information for the Mid-South. Neighboring states of Louisiana and Mississippi previously conducted SRVP programs. Studies such as Siemens, et al. (1978), Klemme (1983), and Brown et al. (1989) have focused on crop production costs by tillage systems. An economic analysis of alternative cropping and row spacing systems by Oriade et al. (1997) found enhanced net returns in narrow row systems. Whole-farm analysis of early-maturing versus traditional varieties by Casey et al. (1998) indicated enhanced profits with the early varieties. Heatherly and Spurlock (1999) (2001) found further agronomic and economic justifications for early production systems that now dominate the Mid-South. Rotation system studies with other crops, particularly rice, have generated mixed results with Watkins et al. (2004) finding conventional till rotation soybean systems preferred by risk-averse rice producers over no-till, but Hignight et al. (2010) and Hristovska, et al. (2013) seeing a preference for no-till rotation systems among producers with similar risk attitudes. Other economic studies have more narrowly focused on herbicide rates (Shaw et al. 2001; Hoverstad, et al. 2006), cover crops (Reddy 2003), integrated pest and crop management (Massey 2008), and phosphorus fertilization (Riskin et al. 2013). Gains in Brazil and Argentina soybean production have even led to debates concerning U.S. competitive advantage and analyses of soybean production costs in the respective countries such as Huerta and Martin (2002). METHODS This study examines soybean expense proportions over a ten year time period as found in the Arkansas Soybean Research Verification Program fields. SRVP fields can be regarded as among the most intensely managed fields in the Mid-South and representative of economic possibilities for the area. The SRVP database shows yields that, when combined with a market price, can generate total crop revenue. Expenses are categorized into seed, fertilizers and nutrients, herbicides, insecticides, other chemicals, custom applications, fuel, repairs and maintenance, labor, interest, other pre-harvest inputs/fees, and post-harvest expenses. Operating expenses and total expenses per yield unit indicate market prices per unit required for each field, but were not included in this analysis. Annual market prices utilized in this study were calculated from Arkansas statewide cash market averages distributed by Stark (various issues) from primary data published in the USDA Arkansas Daily Grain Report, LR_GR_111. Operating expense levels within the listed categories, were examined, by year, to identify any obvious trends over the 10 year study period. Trend lines with equations were estimated for selected expense items that exhibited sizeable changes over the period. Recognition of changing proportions within Total Operating Expenses can benefit producers as they make management decisions of production systems, inputs, and associated crop varieties. RESULTS Total Operating Expenses for producers enrolled in the Arkansas Soybean Research Verification Program increased by more than 50% from 2006-2007 levels to 2009 and following seasons. Average TOE was approximately $160 in 2006-2007, but has not been below $260 per acre since 2009. The major contributors to this increased expense appears to be seed and chemicals. Average seed expenses rose from the mid-$30 range to almost $80 per acre in 2015. Graphically, this change is illustrated with a strong upward trend line and a statistical R2 of 0.835 (Figure 1). Herbicide expenses increased dramatically from the 2006-2008 level, but have stabilized in recent years around $34-39 per acre (Figure 2). Adding insecticide and fungicide expenses into the mix reveals that total chemical expense continues to exhibit a general upward trend (Figure 3). Fertilizer and fuel expenses have been rather volatile, but have not established a clear trend (Figures 4 and 5). An examination from the proportional perspective reveals a somewhat different picture. Looking at the percentages of total operating expense by category shows that seed made up the largest single expense category in 2015 at 29.77% (Table 2). Fuel, herbicides, and fertilizer are all in the 12-15% range. Fuel, the proportional leader in 2006, has fallen approximately 10% over the period. Seed expense and total chemical expense are slowly climbing as a proportion of total operating expense (Figures 6 and 7). Herbicide expense appeared to peak during 2009-2011 and now hovers in the 13-14% range (Figure 8). The implications for soybean producers are important as they face the future. Current dramatic declines in fuel prices may not be as significant of a benefit as first imagined. Producers should instead examine their seed and overall chemical expenditures when formulating production plans for the coming seasons. Implementing strategies that can maximize seeding efficiency while reducing chemical use provide greater promise of benefits for soybean producers throughout the mid-south. Table 1 YEAR EXPENSE ITEM Seed Fertilizer Herbicides Insecticides Other Chemicals Custom Applications 2015 2014 2013 2012 2011 2010 2009 2008 (Average Dollar Amounts By Item and Year) 2007 2006 79.07 33.64 34.62 6.52 6.53 69.96 54.28 36.30 6.19 5.97 69.24 34.27 38.92 2.81 3.82 58.25 36.93 37.44 8.83 5.74 65.98 51.77 49.51* 60.49 76.55 37.13* 59.52 41.20 43.22 5.14 6.94 32.20 46.12 16.98 2.96 0.00 31.07 18.09 14.58 4.24 3.70 34.18 13.19 18.11 3.72 3.10 9.50 11.00 11.79 18.89 16.93 15.03 27.67 13.14 7.93 7.26 Fuel Repairs & Maintenance 39.85 18.91 42.46 18.26 61.75 16.15 58.99 17.45 36.19 11.00 39.96 10.44 21.81 8.61 60.35 9.52 43.04 11.07 41.82 10.95 Labor Interest Other Expenses Post-Harvest 9.82 2.88 5.73 9.29 8.01 6.88 6.71 6.05 8.65 8.52 8.79 11.86 11.47 6.10 4.79 12.13 8.02 7.41 1.29 7.44 5.60 7.55 8.12 5.01 7.55 18.49 14.85 15.84 14.55 12.03 12.58 0.00 0.00 6.69 7.92 TOTAL OPERATING 265.55 277.22 271.13 272.74 261.98 269.70 237.13 197.99 161.01 EXPENSES *Represents average total chemical use for fields in 2010 and 2011, i.e. Herbicides, Insecticides, and Other Chemicals. 160.93 Table 2 YEAR EXPENSE ITEM Seed Fertilizer Herbicides Insecticides Other Chemicals Custom Applications 2015 2014 2013 2012 2011 2010 2009 2008 (Percentage of Total Operating Expenses by Year) 2007 2006 29.77% 25.24% 25.54% 21.36% 25.18% 22.43% 25.10% 16.27% 19.30% 21.24% 12.67% 19.58% 12.64% 13.54% 19.76% 28.38% 17.37% 23.29% 11.23% 8.20% 13.04% 13.09% 14.35% 13.73% 18.90%* 13.77%* 18.23% 8.57% 9.06% 11.25% 2.45% 2.23% 1.04% 3.24% 2.17% 1.50% 2.64% 2.31% 2.46% 2.15% 1.41% 2.11% 2.93% 0.00% 2.30% 1.93% 3.58% 3.97% 4.35% 6.93% 6.46% 5.57% 11.67% 6.63% 4.93% 4.51% Fuel 15.01% 15.32% 22.78% 21.63% Repairs & Maintenance 7.12% 6.59% 5.96% 6.40% 13.82% 14.81% 9.20% 30.48% 26.73% 25.98% 4.20% 3.87% 3.63% 4.81% 6.87% 6.81% Labor Interest Other Expenses Post-Harvest 3.70% 1.08% 3.35% 2.95% 2.52% 2.56% 2.24% 2.57% 2.02% 4.05% 3.74% 4.62% 3.48% 5.05% 3.11% 2.16% 3.12% 3.14% 3.22% 4.53% 4.25% 5.12% 0.65% 4.69% 4.69% 6.96% 5.36% 5.84% 5.33% 4.59% 4.66% 0.00% 0.00% 4.15% 4.92% TOTAL OPERATING 265.55 277.22 271.13 272.74 261.98 269.70 237.13 197.99 161.01 EXPENSES *Represents average total chemical % for fields in 2010 and 2011, i.e. Herbicides, Insecticides, and Other Chemicals. 160.93 Figure 1 Seed 90.00 80.00 70.00 60.00 50.00 40.00 30.00 20.00 10.00 0.00 y = -5.2311x + 84.768 R² = 0.835 2015 2014 2013 2012 2011 2010 2009 2008 2007 2006 Figure 2 Herbicides 60.00 50.00 40.00 30.00 20.00 10.00 0.00 2015 2014 2013 2012 2011 2010 2009 2008 2007 2006 Figure 3 TOTAL CHEMICAL EXPENSES 60.00 50.00 y = -3.1319x + 57.529 R² = 0.5147 40.00 30.00 20.00 10.00 0.00 2015 2014 2013 2012 2011 2010 2009 2008 2007 2006 Figure 4 Fertilizer 90.00 80.00 70.00 60.00 50.00 40.00 30.00 20.00 10.00 0.00 2015 2014 2013 2012 2011 2010 2009 2008 2007 2006 Figure 5 Fuel 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 2015 2014 2013 2012 2011 2010 2009 2008 2007 2006 Figure 6 Seed 35.00% 30.00% y = -0.0095x + 0.2835 R² = 0.5631 25.00% 20.00% 15.00% 10.00% 5.00% 0.00% 2015 2014 2013 2012 2011 2010 2009 2008 2007 2006 Figure 7 All Chemicals 25.00% y = -0.0049x + 0.193 R² = 0.1659 20.00% 15.00% 10.00% 5.00% 0.00% 2015 2014 2013 2012 2011 2010 2009 2008 2007 2006 Figure 8 Herbicides 20.00% 15.00% 10.00% 5.00% 0.00% 2015 2014 2013 2012 2011 2010 2009 2008 2007 2006 References Brown, H.J., R.M. 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