MYNAMEISGREGVANGRINSVEN,ANDONBEHALFOFYOURTOWNROADIMPROVEMENT
PROJECTCOMMITTEE,IWOULDLIKETOPROVIDEYOUWITHANDUPDATEONTHEPROGRESS
WEHAVEMADETOWARDSCREATINGAROADIMPROVEMENTPLAN.
I’DLIKETOSTARTMYUPDATEWITHANOVERVIEWOFTHEPROCESSWEAREUSINGTOCREATEYOURROAD
IMPROVEMENTPLAN.
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I’LLFOLLOWTHATWITHAREVIEWOFTHEPROJECTSUMMARYWHICHISPAGEONEOFTHEHANDOUTWE
CREATEDFORTHISMEETING.
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THEROADSURVEY,CREATEDIN2015ANDTHEFOUNDATIONOFTHEROADIMPROVEMENTPLAN,ISTHETHIRD
AGENDAITEM.
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AREVIEWOFTHE7PROJECTSCENARIOSTHEPROJECTTEAMISCURRENTLYANALYZINGISTHEFOURTHAGENDA
ITEM
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ANDAREVIEWOFTHEPROJECTMILESTONESWILLCLOSEOUTTHEMYUPDATE.
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THEPROCESS
THISFUNNELDIAGRAMISINTENDEDTOGIVEYOUANOVERALLPERSPECTIVEOFTHEPROCESSWEAS
ACOMMITTEEAREUSINGTOCREATETHEPROJECTPLAN.
THEFIRSTSTEPOFTHEPROCESSISDATAGATHERINGANDCOSTESTIMATECREATION.WEASA
COMMITTEEHAVECOMPLETEDTHISFIRSTSTEPANDTHESUMMARYOFITSOUTPUTARETHE
DOCUMENTSYOUHOLDINYOURHAND. CLICK
INMAY,WEHOPETOCOMPLETEAFORMAL“CONDITIONSASSESSMENT”OFEACHROAD.WITHTHE
HELPOFANENGINNEERINGFIRM,EVERYROADWILLBEASSESSEDFROMANENGINNEERING
PERSPECTIVETOOUTLINETHESPECIFICREQUIREMENTSNEEDEDTORECONSTRUCTIT.
THEOUTPUTOFTHISASSESSMENTWILLALLOWTHECOMMITTEETOBETTERASSESSEACHOFTHE
SCENARIOSFORTHEIRVALIDITYASWELLASALLOWINGUSTOFURTHERREFINEOURCOST
ESTIMATES.
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INJUNEAND/ORJULYWEWILLBEUTILIZINGTHEFEEDBACKFROMTHEFOURINFORMATION
SESSIONSWEHAVESCHEDULED,ASWELLASTHEREFINEDCOSTINFORMATIONFROMTHE
CONDITIONSASSESSMENT,TOSELECTTHEONESCENARIOWEWILLBERECOMMENDINGTOTHE
TOWNBOARDFORITSREVIEWANDPOSSIBLEAPPROVAL. CLICK
INAUGUSTTHECOMMITTEEWILLFORMALLYPRESENTITSRECOMMENDATIONTOTHETOWN
BOARD,AND
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INSEPTEMBERWEHOPETOBEBACKIFFRONTOFYOUWITHARECOMMENDATIONFORYOUTO
VOTEON.
THEPROJECTSUMMARYISTHEFRONTPAGEOFTHEHANDOUTWECREATEDFOR
THISMEETING.
IWANTTOSPENDACOUPLEOFMINUTESREVIEWINGTHISDOCUMENTBECAUSEIT
ISACRITICALDOCUMENTWEASACOMMITTEEAREUSINGTOGUIDETHECREATION
OFOURROADIMPROVEMENTPLAN.
THEREARETHREECOMPONENTSOFTHEPROJECTSUMMARY.THEYARE:
THEGOAL,BACKGROUNDANDGUIDINGPRINCIPLES
READTHESLIDE
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READTHESLIDE
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THEROADSURVEY,CREATEDIN2015,ISTHEFOUNDATIONOFOURROADIMPROVEMENTPROJECT.IT’STWO
MAJOROUTPUTS,PRIORITYRANKINGANDESTIMATEDRECONSTRUCTIONCOSTS,ARECRITICALCOMPONENTS
OFEACHOFTHESEVENSCENARIOSCURRENTLYUNDERREVIEW.
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THETOWNBOARDTRAVELEDALL93MILESOFOURTOWNROADSANDRATEDEACHBASEDUPONTHE
FOLLOWINGFOURCRITERIA,SAFETY,OCCUPANCY,TRAFFICANDCONDITION.
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ACOSTESTIMATEFORTHERECONSTRUCTIONOFEACHROADWASTHENCREATEDUSINGTHEAVERAGECOST
PERMILEBYSURFACETYPE.
THEFOLLOWINGSLIDEISASCREENSHOTOFTHESURVEYPREVIEWINGTHEPRIORITYRANKINGANDCOST
ESTIMATESFORALLROADSRECEIVINGARANKINGSCOREBETWEEN10AND15,WITH15BEINGTHEHIGHEST
POSSIBLESCORE.
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THEGREENSECTIONINTHEMIDDLEOFTHEPAGEDEMONSTRATESHOWTHEPRIORITYRANKINGSWERECREATED.
FOREXAMPLE,FOURROADSRECEIVEDAMAXIMUMSCOREOF15POINTSPUTTINGTHEMATTHETOPOFTHELISTFOR
POSSIBLEUPGRADING.
ASYOUREADDOWNTHELIST,THEREWASONEROADAT14POINTS,TWOROADSAT13POINTSANDTHREEROADSAT12
POINTSANDSOONUNTILYOUSEEALLTHEROADSRECEIVINGASCOREOF10POINTS.
THEMATRIXINTHETOPRIGHTCORNEROFTHESLIDEENTITLED“PAVINGCOSTPERMILE”REPRESNTSTHE2017ESTIMATED
AVERAGECOSTPERMILEFORRECONTRUCTINGANYGIVENSURFACETYPE.
READTHECHART
THEESTIMATEDCOSTSASSOCIATEDWITHUPGRADINGANYGIVENROADCANBESEENINTHEFARRIGHTCOLUMN.
THESECOSTSWEREDETERMINEDBYMULTIPLYINGTHEAVERAGECOSTPERMILEINTHEMATRIXFOREACHSURFACETYPE
TIMESTHELENGTHOFTHEROAD.
THEPRIORITYRANKINGSANDCOSTESTIMATESFORRECONSTRUCTIONDISPLAYEDONTHISSLIDEWEREUSEDTODEVELOPTHE
SEVENSCENARIOSIWILLBESHARINGWITHYOUNEXTANDAREPARTOFTHEHANDOUTWECREATEDFORTHISMEETING.
FIRSTSOMEBACKGROUNDONTHESCENARIOS…
THEFIRSTFIVESCENARIOSEACHINVOLVETHEISSUANCEOFBONDSOROBTAININGALOANTOFUNDTHEPROPOSED
INVESTMENTLEVEL.THEESTIMATEDPRINCIPLEANDINTERESTASSOCIATEDWITHEACHINVESTMENTLEVELWHENADDEDTO
THEBUDGETWASTHENUSEDTOCALCULATETHEPOTENTIALTAXIMPACT.
EACHOFTHESEFIVESCENARIOSALSOINCLUDEANADDITIONALINCREASEOF$300,000INTHEMAINTENANCEBUDGET
STARTINGINYEAR10TOENSUREEACHOFTHENEWLYRECONSTRUCTEDROADSWILLBEMAINTAINEDOVERTHELONGRUN.
THELASTTWOSCENARIOSINVOLVEINCREASESINTHEBUDGETTOFUNDEACHOFTHEPROPOSALSANDDONOTREQUIRETHE
ISSUANCEOFBONDSOROBTAININGALOANTOFUNDTHEM.ALSO,BECAUSEOFTHEIRLIIMITEDSCOPETHEYDONOT
INCLUDEANINCREASEINTHEMAINTENANCEBUDGET.
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INREFLECTIONOFONEOFOURGUIDINGPRINCIPLES,ALLSCENARIOSINCLUDEA90/10SPLITBETWEENTHEAMOUNT
FINANCEDORBUDGETEDANDTHEAMOUNTTOBEFUNDEDTHROUGHGRANTSORMATCHINGFUNDS.
WHEREAPPLICABLE,2017INTERESTRATESAREUSEDASTHEBASISOFINTERESTBEINGPAID.
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EACHSCENARIOWILLALSOINCLUDETHETAXIMPACTEACHINVESTMENTLEVELORBUDGETINCREASEHASONACOST/
$100,000OFASSESSEDVALUATION.
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ASIREVIEWTHERECAPFOREACHSCENARIO,TWOMAJORTHEMESWILL
BECOMEREADILYEVIDENT.
HigherInvestment=Highercost,highestmilesofcoverage,fastest
implementa^on,andeveryonebenefitsquickly
LowerInvestment=Lowercost,leastmilesofcoverage,slowest
implementa^onandveryfewbenefitquickly
LET’STAKEALOOKATEACHSCENARIOUNDERREVIEWANDTHEIR
ASSOCIATEDESTIMATEDTAXIMPACT
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INSUMMARY,WEASACOMMITTEEHAVENOTFOUNDASCENARIOTOBE
PURSUEDWHERETHEREWILLNOTBETHEPOTENTIALFORTHENEED
FORINCREASEDFUNDINGFORROADSRESULTINGINTHEPOTENTIAL
FORATAXINCREASE.ROADIMPROVEMENTNEEDSWILLALWAYSBE
THERE,ITWILLJUSTBEAMATTEROFHOWANDWHENWEAREGOING
TOHAVETOFUNDIT.
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LASTLY,I’DLIKETOCONCLUDEMYUPDATEWITHAREVIEWOFTHEPROJECT
MILESTONES.
WITHTHECOMPLETIONOFMYUPDATETONIGHTWEWILLHAVECOMPLETEDTHE
TWOMILESTONESLISTEDFORTHEMONTHOFAPRIL.
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INMAY,WEHOPETOCOMPLETETHEALLIMPORTANT“CONDITIONSASSESSMENT”
WHICHWILLGIVEUSAROADBYROADENGINEERINGASSESSMENTANDMORE
REFINEDCOSTSONWHICHTOASSESSEACHSCENARIO.
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INJUNEANDJULYWEPLANONCONDUCTINGADDITIONALPUBLICINFORMATION
GATHERINGSESSIONSINCLUDINGMEETINGWITHSOMEOFTHELAKEASSOCIATIONS
ANDCIVICANDCOMMUNITYORGANIZAITONS.
INJULY,THECOMMITTEEWILLASSESSALLTHEPOTENTIALSCENARIOSANDSELECT
ONEFORRECOMMENDTIONTOTHETOWNBOARD.
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INJULYANDORAUGUSTTHETOWNBOARDWILLREVIEWTHERECOMMENDATION
ANDDECIDEONWHATACTIONTOTAKE.
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INSEPTEMBER,WEHOPETOBEBACKHEREWITHYOUAGAINTOPRESENTA
RECOMMENDATIONFORYOUTOVOTEON
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LASTLY…SEPTEMBERISCRITICALTOMAKETHE2018BUDGETPREPARATION,
PROJECTBIDDINGANDTHE1OCTOBERGRANTAPPLICATIONDEADLINEFOR2018
THANKSFORLISTENING.
AsImen^onedtheactualsurveywascompletedattheendof2015duringwhichthethreemembersofthetown
boarddroveall94milesofourtownroadsandassessedeachroadbaseduponthreecriteria:
SAFETY
TRAFFICLEVEL,
OCCUPANCYLEVEL,
ANDCONDITION.
Inthisscreenshotyoucanseetherankingofthefirst38milesofroads,andtheirra^ngsindescendingorder
from15to10..
Iwouldencourageeveryonetoreadthisdocumentfromtheperspec^veofitspriorityrankingincomparisonto
theotherroadsonthelistandnotfromtheperspec^vethatAllenroadisthenumberoneroadbecauseitisat
thetopofthelist.
Allenroadisjustoneof4fourroadsreceivingascoreof15justasoldkroadisjustoneofthesevenroads
receivingascoreof11.
Itisalsolikelythesequencingofwhatroadsgetfixedinwhatordermaychangebaseduponactualbidsbecauseit
maybemuchmorecosteffec^vetogrouproadstogetherbasedupontheirgeographicrela^onshiptoeachother
ratherthantheirlistedorderofpriorityranking.
Itis,asstated,averygoodstar^ngpointtodeterminetheprioritygroupingandtheassociatedcostsof
reconstruc^onofeachroadonthelist.
Processcheck:areweallsBllonthesamepage?????
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Scenarioiincludesall64milesoftheroadsrequiringreconstruc^onwiththeassump^onthatkeyroadswillbe
abletobeupgradedtoasphalt.(Rememberthecategory3roadshighlightedinblue?)
Iamgoingtogothroughthisfirstscenarioindetailtomakesureyouunderstanditscontentsbecauseallseven
scenariosfollowthesameformat.
Eachscenarioisaccompaniedbythetaximpactchartshowingfirsttheimpactper$100,000inassessedvalua^on,
andthenwhatthetaximpactwouldbeontheaveragehomeeitheroffwater,onwaterortheoverallaverage.
Ifweweretodoall64milesofroads,itwouldrequireda$7.0millioninvestmentincludingfundingforan
increaseintheroadmaintenancebudgetstar^nginyear2028.Thetargetedcomple^ondatewouldbein2018
and2019.
Theannualprincipleandinterestassociatedwithborrowing$7millionwouldbeanaverageof$479,205peryear
overa20yeartermexpiringin2038.
Thees^matedtaximpactwouldbeanaverageof$101per$100,000inassessedpropertyvalua^onforthefirst
10yearincreasingtoanaverageof$171peryearinthelast10years.Thereasonfortheincreaseinthelast10
yearsistocoverthecostassociatedwithincreasingthecurrentroadmaintenancebudgetby$300,000peryear
star^ngin2028.
Thees^matedtaximpactonanaverageoffwaterhomevaluedat$150,700wouldbeanaverageof$152peryear
forthefirst10yearsandanaverageof$256peryearforthesecond10years.
Thees^matedtaximpactonanaverageonwaterhomevaluedat$412,300wouldbeanaverageof$416peryear
forthefirst10yearsandanaverageof$701peryearforthesecond10years.
Thees^matedimpactontheoverallaveragehomeinboulderjunc^onvaluedat$322,200wouldbeanaverageof
$312peryearforthefirst10yearsandanaverageof$548peryearforthesecond10years.
Everyonefollow?Itisimportantthatyoudoasallthefollowingscenariosfollowasimilarformat.
SCENARIOIIISTHESAMEASSCENARIOIEXCEPTALLTHEASPHALTUPGRADESHAVEBEENELIMINATEDANDWE
WOULDUSEEITHERCHIPSEALORSTONEMASTICOVERLAYASTHEPREFERREDSURFACEMATERIALS.
ALLTHEOTHERASSUMPTIONSREMAINTHESAMEWITHTHETOTALINVESTMENTCOSTDROPPINGFROM$7.0
MILLIONTO$5.5MILLION.
THEAVERAGEPRINCIPLEANDINTERESTCOSTSDROPTO$377,423,RESULTINGINANESTIMATEDTAXINCREASE
OFANAVERAGEOF$79PER$100,000ASSESSEDVALUATIONFORTHEFIRST10YEARSANDANAVERAGEOF$148
PER$100,000ASSESSEDVALUATIONINTHESECOND10YEARS.
FROMTHECHARTYOUCANSEETHEIMPACTONTHEAVERAGEHOME,EITHEROFFWATER,ONWATERORIN
GENERALJUSTASINTHEPREVIOUSEXAMPLEANDINORDERTOSAVESOMETIMEIWILLNOTBECOVERING
THOSEDETAILSINTHESCENARIOSTHATREMAIN.
SCENARIOIIIREDUCESTHESCOPEOFTHEPROJECTTOINCLUDEONLYTHE“TOP
TEN”ROADSORROUGHLY20MILESOFTHETOTAL64MILESINTHEPLAN.
THEINVESTMENTCOSTDROPSTO$3.0MILLION,ANDONCEAGAININCLUDESAN
INCREASEINTHEROADMAINTENANCEBUDGETOF$300,000INYEAR2028.
THEESTIMATEDTAXIMPACTDROPSTOANAVERAGEOF$44PER$100,000OF
ASSESSEDVALUATIONINTHEFIRST10YEARSANDANAVERAGEOF$113PER
$100,000OFASSESSEDVALUATIONINSECOND10YEARS.
SCENARIOIVISTHESAMEASSCENARIOIIIASITREDUCESTHESCOPEOFTHE
PROJECTTOINCLUDEONLYTHE“TOPTEN”ROADSORROUGHLY20MILESOFTHE
TOTAL64MILESINTHEPLANBUTALSOELIMINATESTHEASPHALTUPGRADES.
THEINVESTMENTCOSTDROPSTO$2.0MILLION,ANDONCEAGAININCLUDESAN
INCREASEINTHEROADMAINTENANCEBUDGETOF$300,000PERYEARBEGINNING
INYEAR2028.
THEESTIMATEDTAXIMPACTDROPSTOANAVERAGEOF$29PER$100,000OF
ASSESSEDVALUATIONINTHEFIRST10YEARSANDANAVERAGEOF$98PER
$100,000OFASSESSEDVALUATIONINSECOND10YEARS.
SCENARIOVPORTRAYSTHEIMPACTOFASTAGGEREDINVESTMENT.
ITASSUMESTHESAMEPARAMETERSOFSCENARIOISOITINCLUDESTHEPROPOSED
UPGRADESTOASPHALTANDTHEINCREASEINTHEROADMAINTENANCEBUDGET
TOPROTECTTHEINVESTMENT…
BUTITSTAGGERSTHEINVESTMENTINTOFIVEYEARINCREMENTS.$3.0MILLION
INVESTEDIN2018,$2.0MILLIONINVESTEDIN2023ANDTHELAST$2.0MILLION
INVESTEDIN2028.
THEAVERAGEPRINCIPLEANINTERESTPAYMENTIS$161,428PERYEAR.(JUSTA
WORDOFCAUTION,THISMAYBEMISLEADINGAVERAGEASITIS
DIFFICULTTOPREDICTWHATTHEPREVAILINGINTERESTRATESWILLBEINTHE
YEARS2023AND2028.FORTHISEXAMPLETHESAMEINTERESTRATEWASUSEDIN
EACHOFTHETHREEINVESTMENTLEVELSUSEDINTHISEXAMPLE.)
THEESTIMATEDTAXIMPACTISANAVERAGEOF$44FORTHEFIRSTFIVEYEARS,$73
FORTHESECONDFIVEYEARSAND$171FORTHELAST10YEARS.
SCENARIOVIABANDONSANYTHOUGHTOFBONDINGANDJUSTLOOKSAT
INCREASINGTHECURRENTROADRECONSTRUCTIONBUDGETBY$300,000PER
YEARS.
THEINCREASEWOULDRESULTINANAVERAGEBUDGETOF$550,000INTOTAL
FROMWHICHWEESTIMATEDANAVERAGEOF5MILESOFROADSCOULDBE
IMPROVEDPERYEAR.
THISISVERYSIMILARTOTHEPROPOSALTHATWASMADEIN2016BUTREPEATED
EVERYYEARFORTHENEXT20YEARS.
THEESTIMATEDTAXIMPACTWOULDBEANAVERAGEOF$69PERYEARFORTHE
NEXT10YEARSANDANAVERAGEOF$85PERYEARFORTHESECOND10YEARS
REFLECTINGTHEESTIMATEDIMPACTSOFINFLATION.
ITDOESNOTINCLUDEANYINCREASEINTHEANNUALROADMAINTENANCEBUDGET.
SCENARIOVIIISA“FIXASFAIL”APPROACHWHICHMEANSWEWOULDONLY
INCREASETHEBUDGETWHENAROADFAILSORISDEEMEDUNSAFEFORPASSAGE.
THISSCENARIOSASSUMESA$200,000EMERGENCYFUNDISREQUIREDEVERY
OTHERYEARRESULTINGINANESTIMATEDTAXINCREASEOF$45PERYEARFORTHE
FIRST10YEARSAND$52PERYEARFORTHESECOND10YEARSONCEAGAIN
REFLECTINGTHEIMPACTSOFINFLATION.
LIKESCENARIOVI,ITALSODOESNOTINCLUDEANYINCREASEINTHEANNUALROAD
MAINTENANCEBUDGET.