AGE OF
ELECTORAL
MAJORITY
NOVEMBER 2003
PREPARED FOR:
THE ELECTORAL
COMMISSION
Age of Electoral Majority - November 2003
REPORT PREPARED BY:
Martin Boon
Head of ICM government research
2
Age of Electoral Majority - November 2003
Table of contents
Page
1. TABLE OF CONTENTS
3
2. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
4
3. METHODOLOGY
6
4. BACKGROUND TO THE SURVEY
8
5. MAIN REPORT
9
5.1
5.2
5.3
5.4
9
11
12
5.6
5.7
5.8
5.9
5.10
Legal Minimum Ages
Unprompted Preferred Age for Voting
Prompted Preferred Age for Voting
Reasons Why the Voting Age Should Remain
At 18 Years
Reasons Why the Voting Age Should Be
Lowered to 16 Years
Age of Candidacy
Differential Voter And Candidacy Age
Identical Voter and Candidate Age
A Consistent Age of Voting
A Consistent Age for Standing As a Candidate
14
15
16
16
17
18
6.
CONCLUSIONS
19
7.
TOP LINE RESULTS
20
5.5
3
13
Age of Electoral Majority - November 2003
2. Executive Summary
⇒ ICM Research interviewed a random sample of 1033 adults aged 18+ by
telephone on 19-20 November 2003. An additional booster sample of 234
interviews with 15-19 year olds was conducted on 25-26 November – these
results are reported separately and the findings below are based on the 1,089
sample aged 18+ unless otherwise stated (correct to within +/-2.72% at the
95% confidence level).
⇒ In general, people have a fairly good impression of the minimum legal age that
applies to various types of activity. In particular, four in five (83%) know that
you have to be 18 before you can vote. Ironically, the groups most likely to
incorrectly state the voting age are those who have most recently passed the
threshold, with 13% of those aged 18-24 and 17% of those 25-34 saying that
the age is actually 16 years rather than 18 years. Fifteen year olds show a low
level of awareness, with 24% thinking the voting age is 16 years, but the
proportion falls dramatically among those aged 16 (6%) and 17 (7%) years.
⇒ It is also the case that of all the types of activity presented to respondents, the
age at which people can be election candidates is the one that most people got
wrong. As the table below shows, only 36% correctly stated 21 years, with the
remainder either getting it wrong (56%) or not knowing (8%). The table below
shows the proportion who correctly stated the age that applies for each type of
activity:
Vote at elections
Gambling in a betting
shop or casino
Leave FT education
Smoke
Drive a car
Drive a bus or lorry
Stand as a candidate in
an election
Correct Age
18
18
% Saying Correct Age
83%
67%
16
16
17
21
21
65%
55%
53%
50%
36%
⇒ The age at which it is thought that people should be able to vote produced a
remarkable finding. The average (to one decimal place) is 18.0 years. There is a
very slight tendency for younger people to think that voting age should be lower
(average age among those 18-24 is 17.7 years and 25-34 is 17.5 years),
although there are no statistically significant variations across the age bands.
⇒ If forced to choose between a minimum legal age for voting of 16 years or 18
years, three-quarters would choose the status quo. Overall, 78% say that the
4
Age of Electoral Majority - November 2003
minimum voting age should remain at 18 years, with only one in five (22%)
saying it should be lowered to 16 years. However, younger people
disproportionately think that the age should be lowered to 16 years (33% of
those aged 18-24 compared to only 5% of those 65+). The older you become,
the more likely you are to think the age should remain at 18 years.
⇒ Those people who want the voting age to remain at 18 years suggest that
insufficient life experience (33%) is the chief reason, followed by immaturity at
16 (30%) – although the latter argument is not something that 15-19 year olds’
mention to such a degree (only 22% do so). Some of this younger group,
however, do admit to disinterest interested at that age (13%).
⇒ A minority of the population want the age lowered to 16 years. They think that
this age group are part of society and also have valid opinions at 16, with adults
aged 18+ more likely to think the former rather than the latter (vice-versa for
those aged 15-19).
⇒ When it comes to the minimum age at which people can stand as election
candidates, more people are inclined to think that it should be kept at 21 years
(32%) or should be higher than this (33%), than think it should be 18 years
(23%).
⇒ Indeed, 81% agree (either ‘strongly’ 58% or ‘tend to agree’ 23%) that the
minimum age should be higher for a candidate than a voter because more
experience of life is needed to be a candidate. Older people are particularly
inclined to think this way (88% ‘net’ agreement among those 65+ compared to
76% net agreement among those 18-24).
⇒ However, when respondents were prompted with the statement “if you are old
enough to vote, you are old enough to be a candidate” the level of ‘net’
disagreement only reached 58%. Given that 81% previously felt that candidates
needed to be older, it clearly did not take much for almost one in four to change
their mind, or at least to be sympathetic with both sides of the argument.
⇒ When it comes to the voting age across elections, there is universal agreement
that there should be consistency. Overall, 94% agree that the age at which
people can vote should be the same for all elections. There is very little
divergence on this issue across all demographic variables.
⇒ Not quite as many (88%) agree that the age at which people can stand as
candidates should be the same across all elections, but the results are very
conclusive none the less. Younger people (83% of those 18-24) are slightly less
inclined to agree than older groups (91% of those 65+).
5
Age of Electoral Majority - November 2003
3. Methodology
ICM Research interviewed a random sample of 1033 adults aged 18+ by telephone
on 19th-20th November 2003. An additional boost sample of 234 interviews with 1519 year olds was conducted on 25-26th November. All interviews were conducted
across the United Kingdom and the results have been weighted to the profile of all
adults, with the exception of 201 boost interviews with 15-17 year olds, which was
left un-weighted. The results are correct to within +/-2.72% at the 95% confidence
level.
It should be remembered at all times that a sample and not the entire population
has been interviewed. Consequently, all results are subject to sampling tolerances,
which mean that not all differences are statistically significant.
We can, however, predict the variation between the sample results and the ‘true’
values (if everyone in the population had been interviewed) from knowledge of the
size of the samples on which the results are based and the number of times
answers are given. The confidence with which we can make this prediction is
usually chosen to be 95% - that is, the chances are 95 times out of 100 that the
‘true’ value will fall within a specified range. The table below illustrates the
predicted ranges for different sample sizes and the percentage results at the 95%
confidence level.
SAMPLE SIZE
100 interviews
250 interviews
500 interviews
1000 interviews
1,100 interviews
SAMPLING TOLERENCES APPLICABLE TO
%’S AT OR NEAR
10% OR
30% OR 70%
50%
90%+ / +/+/5.88%
8.98%
9.8%
3.72%
5.68%
6.2%
2.63%
4.02%
4.38%
1.86%
2.84%
3.1%
1.77%
2.71%
2.95%
For example, with a sample size of 1,100 interviews where 50% (the worst case
scenario as far as tolerances are concerned) give a particular answer, we can be
95% certain that the ‘true’ value will fall within the range of 2.95% from the
sample result.
When results are compared between separate groups within a sample (say,
between men and women), different results may be obtained. The difference may
be ‘real’ or it may occur by chance (because a sample rather than the entire
population has been interviewed). To test if the difference is a real one, i.e. if it is
‘statistically significant’, we again have to know the size of the samples, the %
giving a certain answer and the degree of confidence chosen. If we assume the
6
Age of Electoral Majority - November 2003
95% confidence level again, the differences between the results of two separate
groups must be greater than the values given in the table below:
SAMPLE SIZES TO
BE COMPARED
100 and 100
200 and 200
500 and 500
1000 and 1000
DIFFERENCES REQUIRED TO BE
STATISTICALLY SIGNIFICANT AT OR NEAR
10% OR
30% OR
50%
90%+ / 70%+ / +/8.3%
12.7%
13.9%
5.9%
8.9%
9.8%
3.7%
5.7%
6.2%
2.6%
4.0%
4.4%
SOCIAL CLASS DEFINITIONS
Most market research projects classify the population into social grades, usually on
the basis of the Market Research Society occupational groupings (MRS, 1991). They
are defined as follows:
A.
B.
C1.
C2.
D.
E.
Professionals such as doctors, solicitors or dentists, chartered people like
architects; fully qualified people with a large degree of responsibility such as
senior civil servants, senior business executives and high ranking grades within
the armed forces. Retired people, previously grade A, and their widows.
People with very senior jobs such as university lecturers, heads of local
government departments, middle management in business organisations, bank
managers, police inspectors, and upper grades in the armed forces.
All others doing non-manual jobs, including nurses, technicians, pharmacists,
salesmen, publicans, clerical workers, police sergeants and middle ranks of the
armed forces.
Skilled manual workers, foremen, manual workers with special qualifications
such as lorry drivers, security officers and lower grades of the armed forces.
Semi-skilled and unskilled manual workers, including labourers and those
serving apprenticeships. Machine minders, farm labourers, lab assistants and
postmen.
Those on the lowest levels of subsistence including all those dependent upon
the state long-term. Casual workers, and those without a regular income.
In some parts of this report, ‘net’ figures have been used. These are usually two
different %’s which have been aggregated for convenience, where it is appropriate
to do so. For example, where 20% ‘strongly’ agree and 15% ‘tend’ to agree, the
net becomes 35% who agree.
In all the charts and tables that follow, percentages that do not add to 100% may
be the result of computer rounding of raw numbers into percentage figures.
* If the asterisk symbol is present in any chart or table that follows, it indicates that
a particular answer was given by at least one respondent, but the aggregation of all
such answers was insufficient for them to round up to 1%.
7
Age of Electoral Majority - November 2003
4. Background To The Survey
To vote in United Kingdom elections an individual must be at least 18 years old, in
accordance with the Representation of the People Act 1983. There is, however, a
difference when it comes to the age at which an individual can stand as a candidate
in those elections, where the current minimum age stipulated (in various legal
provisions) is 21 years.
Given that participation in elections among the youngest members of society has
been very low in recent years (only 39% of those aged 18-24 years are thought to
have voted in the 2001 General Election), many people have suggested that now is
the time to change rules applying to the minimum voting and candidacy ages, in
the hope of engaging young people more openly and thus helping to assimilate
them into political processes and structures. It is argued that lowering the voting
age would provide a clear statement to the youngest sections of society that their
views are being taken seriously. Indeed, three independent commissions have
recently recommended lowering the voting age and/or candidacy age for local
elections – the Kerley Working Group in Scotland, the Commission on Local
Governance in England and the Sunderland Commission in Wales.
However, others argue that most voters under 18 are insufficiently mature to use
electoral rights responsibly, and are more likely to be influenced by others. Given
these opposing views, the independent Electoral Commission published a
consultation paper How old is old enough? in July 2003, seeking stakeholder views
on the preferred ages for voting and candidacy. As part of the consultation process,
ICM Research was commissioned to undertake quantitative research among
representative samples of the UK population aged 15+, which examined precisely
those issues briefly mentioned above. This report provides detailed feedback on the
research results.
8
Age of Electoral Majority - November 2003
5. Main Report
5.1 Legal Minimum Ages
In the United Kingdom, there is no single legal age of majority, with young people
able to participate in different activities or acts at various ages. In order to
understand how far people in the UK understand this, in the first instance they
were asked what they thought the minimum ages are for various activities. The
chart below shows that many people do in fact have a fairly good impression of the
minimum ages, particularly in terms of being able to vote – but not in terms of
being able to stand as a candidate.
ICM Research – Electoral Commission – November 2003
Overall, four in five (80%) are aware of the fact that you currently have to be 18
years of age before you can vote – easily the largest proportion who spontaneously
mention any correct minimum age.
MINIMUM AGE TO LEGALLY…..
Correct age
100%
90%
1
3
2
30
33
Incorrect age
Don't know
4
0
41
47
5
16
80%
70%
8
45
60
60%
50%
40%
83
67
30%
65
55
53
50
20%
32
10%
0%
Vote in
elections
Gamble
Leave FT
education
Smoke
Drive a car
Drive bus
or lorry
Stand as
candidate
Q1. What do you think is the minimum age someone is legally able to do each of the
following activities in the UK? BASE: All respondents 18+ (1,089)
There are few substantive demographic variations on this, but it is true that 15-17
year olds are less able (67%) than others to correctly identify the age at which they
can vote. However, this rises to 81% among all 18-24 year olds’, which logically
indicates that once they pass the age of majority they become aware of it.
However, while the public are disproportionately able to identify the age at which
people can vote in elections, they are disproportionately unable to identify the
9
Age of Electoral Majority - November 2003
correct age at which people can stand as candidates in those elections. Indeed, the
proportion (32%) that correctly calls the age as 21 years is the lowest of all types
of activity enquired about. Indeed, slightly more (36%) think the age is actually 18
years, while a sizable one in six (17%) think that candidates need to be 22 or
older.
The proportion who get the candidacy age right are very much from the older end
of the age spectrum, with 39% of those aged 55+ getting it right compared to only
18% of 15-17 year olds’ and 25% of 18-24 year olds’.
The table below shows that there are some other interesting differences between
those aged 15-17 years and those 18+, in terms of the proportions who correctly
identify the minimum legal age for each type of activity. In general, for those
activities that young people may have an interest in (even if they are not yet legally
old enough to actually do it), they are more aware than the population as a whole
as to the correct minimum legal age. This applies particularly to smoking (68% 1519 vs 55% 18+) and driving a car (61% vs. 53%). It does not apply to driving a
bus or lorry, or indeed to standing as an election candidate.
Correct Age
Vote at elections
Gambling in a betting
shop or casino
Leave FT education
Smoke
Drive a car
Drive a bus or lorry
Stand as a candidates in
an election
18
18
% 18+ Saying
Correct Age
83%
67%
%15-17 years
Saying Correct Age
67%
68%
16
16
17
21
21
65%
55%
53%
50%
32%
68%
68%
61%
30%
18%
For all of the non-election activities, a majority of the population is able to specify
the correct minimum legal age, with up to two in three correct for gambling (67%)
and leaving full time education (65%); just over half for smoking (55%), driving a
car (53%) or driving a bus or lorry (50%).
10
Age of Electoral Majority - November 2003
AGE SHOULD BE ABLE TO VOTE IN ELECTIONS?
100%
90%
MEAN =
18.0
2
13
80%
17 years
MEAN =
17.4
18 years
MEAN =
17.7
0
9
14
3
70%
60%
50%
64
52
64
MEAN =
17.5
1
6
60
19+ years
MEAN =
17.8
1
10
MEAN =
18.1
1
16
64
6
20%
3
10%
18
25
1
20
67
69
2
30
2
8
4
5
4
23
17
55
-6
4
45
-5
4
35
-4
4
25
-3
4
18
-2
4
re
15
-1
9
1
21
0%
sp
on
de
nt
s
MEAN =
18.4
3
3
23
MEAN =
18.5
63
40%
30%
Other/DK
65
+
16 years
Al
l
ICM Research – Electoral Commission – November 2003
5.2 Unprompted Preferred Age for Voting
When asked the age at which people should be able to cast a vote in elections, two
in three (64%) think that the status quo position of 18 years is the right age. Of
those people who would prefer the voting age to be 18 rather than 16 years, three
quarters (77%) do know that the legal age is actually 18 years. However, only one
in five (20%) of those who would prefer it to be 16 years correctly and
spontaneously specified the correct legal age of 18. In short, most of those people
who would like the age to be lowered don’t actually know what the legal minimum
age currently is!
Q2. At what age do you think people SHOULD be able to vote in elections?
BASE: All respondents (1,089), Booster 15-19 (279)
As the chart shows, overall there is a clear preference across all age groups for the
voting age to be 18 years, with even a majority (52%) of 15-19 year olds
supporting this case. However, the proportion does fall below a majority amongst
those aged 16 (43%) or 17 years (44%). Clearly, those people fast approaching
the age at which they can vote would already like to be able to do so, but once
past it, their views swing back in the opposite direction – two in three (64%) of
both 18 year olds’ and 19 year olds’ think the voting age should remain at 18 years.
Remarkably, the ‘mean vote age’ calculation arrived at for all adults is exactly 18.0
years. This falls to 17.4 among those aged 15-19 and rises to a high of 18.5 years
among those between the ages of 55-64 years.
11
Age of Electoral Majority - November 2003
ICM Research – Electoral Commission – November 2003
5.3 Prompted Preferred Age for Voting
It was explained to respondents that The Electoral Commission is reviewing the age
at which people should be allowed to vote, and they were asked to decide between
lowering it to 16 years or keeping it at 18. There is an emphatic majority in favour
of the latter option, with 78% wanting things to stay as they are and only 22%
choosing the 16 years option. With the exception of age (see below the chart),
there are few discriminating variables on this issue – although it is the case that
ethnic minorities (73%) are slightly less inclined for the status quo than the white
population (78%) as are those who rarely or never vote (67%) compared to those
who do so regularly (83%).
16 YEARS VS. 18 YEARS
Lowered to 16
Kept at 18
100%
90%
80%
54
70%
60%
78
67
62
73
80
88
50%
94
40%
30%
35
20%
10%
22
33
38
27
19
11
0%
All
15-19
18-24
25-34
35-44
45-54
55-64
5
65+
Q3. As you may know, the independent Electoral Commission is currently reviewing the age at which
people should be allowed to vote. If the choice came down to it do you think the minimum voting age
should be lowered to 16 years or kept at it’s present 18 years?
BASE: All respondents (1,089), Booster 15-19 (279)
When it comes to age, once again it can be seen that the older you are the more
likely it becomes that you prefer the voting age to remain at 18 years. Overall, 94%
of those aged 65+ think this way, with the proportion falling steadily to ‘only’ 54%
of all those aged 15-19. However, within this lowest age band there is major
variation in response, with a plurality but not a majority (48%) of 16 year olds’ and
17 year olds’ (47%) in favour of it being kept at 18. This is not the case for 15 year
olds’, who are split down the middle (52% vs 48% just in favour of keeping it at
18) or 18 and 19 year olds’ - a much bigger proportion of whom want the voting
age to remain at 18 years (69% and 70% respectively).
The table below shows how young people views vary by single year:
12
Age of Electoral Majority - November 2003
AGE
years
years
years
years
years
% in favour of
keeping voting
age at 18 years
52%
48%
47%
69%
70%
% in favour of
lowering to 16
years
48%
35%
27%
29%
30%
15-16 years
15-17 years
15-19 years
50%
49%
54%
42%
37%
35%
8%
14%
11%
18+
78%
22%
*%
15
16
17
18
19
% Don’t Know
-%
17%
26%
2%
-%
ICM Research – Electoral Commission – November 2003
5.4 Reasons why the voting age should remain at 18 years
If three quarters (78%) of the adult population want the voting age to remain at
18, we might speculate that they hold some solid views on why this should be the
case. Yet this is not really true. As the chart shows, there are a number of
spontaneous reasons provided, none of which is held by more than four in ten
members of the population.
WHY KEEP IT AT 18 YEARS?
36
Not enough life
experience
33
22
Not mature enough at
16
30
12
13
T oo young to make
decisions
3
Still children
9
13
Not interested at that
age
15-19
4
18+
3
Leaves time to develop
views
2
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
Q4. Why do you think the voting age should be lowered to 16?
BASE: All who think should be kept at 18 years (847), booster 15-19 (152)
One in three (33%) think that 16 year olds don’t have enough life experience (as
do 36% of 15-19 year olds in fact), while a further 30% (22%, 15-19) simply think
13
Age of Electoral Majority - November 2003
that people do not have sufficient maturity at 16. One in eight (13%) thinks that 16
is not old enough to make political decisions, but intriguingly, 13% of 15-19 year
olds’ say they are not interested enough at that age, which is not something that
older people think of particularly (4%) as a reason to keep the voting age where it
is.
ICM Research – Electoral Commission – November 2003
5.5 Reasons why the voting age should be lowered to 16 years
It has been established that a minority, one in five (22%) does want the age to be
lowered to sixteen years, (rising to 35% among 15-19 year olds). As the chart
shows, the main reason for this is interchangeable depending on the age group by
which we analyse the data, but irrespective of that, there only appear to be three
main strands of thought on why the age should be lowered.
WHY LOWER IT TO 16 YEARS?
36
They are still part of
society
46
43
They have valid views
and opinions
28
8
Mature enough at 16
24
15-19
11
Other
18+
5
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
Q4. Why do you think the voting age should be lowered to 16?
BASE: All who think should be lowered to 16 years (314), boost 15-19 (97)
The first of these relates to the fact that young people under 18 are considered to
be part of society. The proportion supporting this proposition rises to 46% among
all adults, but falls back to one in three (36%) among 15-19 year olds - who are
themselves more convinced (43%) by the idea that the views and opinions they
hold are valid and perhaps should be treated on an equal basis to the opinions held
by their elders. However, their elders are not so easily persuaded that young
people do hold valid opinions, given that only one in four (28%) thinks along the
same lines.
14
Age of Electoral Majority - November 2003
The only other important theme to emerge focuses on the maturity of young
people. One in four adults (24%) think that 16 year olds’ are mature enough to
form political opinions, an idea that young people themselves do not mention as
often, given that only 8% of those aged 15-19 spontaneously admitted this was the
case.
AGE SHOULD BE ABLE TO STAND AS CANDIDATE?
33
18
21
22
70%
8
60%
50%
MEAN =
19.6
30
32
4
30%
3
4
33
MEAN =
20.1
45
MEAN =
21.1
50
38
4
26
8
6
35
6
22
4
2
2
14
1
33
5
10
0
lr
es
po
nd
en
ts
0%
6
33
37
23
18
-2
4
10%
30
15
-1
9
20%
39
27
MEAN =
20.5
27
5
40%
MEAN =
20.2
65
+
6
MEAN =
19.8
22+ years
55
-6
4
MEAN =
19.2
21 years
45
-5
4
80%
MEAN =
20.4
19-20 years
35
-4
4
90%
18 years
25
-3
4
100%
16-17 years
Al
ICM Research – Electoral Commission – November 2003
5.6 Age of candidacy
The age at which people are currently able to stand as election candidates is 21
years, but only 32% of the population is aware of this, with an identical number
(32%) thinking that it SHOULD be 21 years. More people however(33%), think it
should be raised to 22 years or beyond than think (23%) it should be lowered to a
par with the voting age of 18 years. This is especially the case as far as members
of ethnic minorities are concerned (42%) and those who are not currently
employed (40%). The mean age at which people think people they should be able
to stand as candidates is, however, 20.4 years.
Q5. At what age do you think people SHOULD be able to stand as a candidate
in an election?
BASE: All respondents (1,296), boost 15-19 (279)
Once again, a key determinant is age. As the chart above demonstrates, half (50%)
of those aged 65+ think that candidates should be 22+, a proportion that falls
consistently with respondent age. Similarly, the proportion who think it should be
lowered to 18 years reaches its’ peak at 15-19 years (39%) and falls consistently as
respondent age increases (with the exception of 19 year olds, 33% of whom think
15
Age of Electoral Majority - November 2003
this should be the case), to the point where only 10% of 65+’s think it should
apply.
A consistent feature of this research is the wide variation in attitude by single year
of age among the youngest cohort. This also applies to candidacy age, where over
half (52%) of 15 year olds’ think it should be lowered to 18 years, but the
proportion then falls as the table below demonstrates:
AGE
15
16
17
18
19
% who think candidacy age should be
lowered to 18 years
52%
40%
34%
31%
33%
years
years
years
years
years
18-34
35-54
55+
34%
24%
12%
5.7 Differential Voter and Candidate Ages
There is strong agreement that “the minimum age should be higher for a candidate
than a voter because more experience of life is needed to be a candidate”. Overall
four in five (81%) think that this is the case, which perhaps fits in with the findings
set out above. Not only this, but the strength of agreement is high with six in ten
(58%) agreeing strongly and one in four (23%) tending to agree. Only one in
seven people (15%) disagree in total, with only 6% disagreeing strongly and 9%
tending to disagree.
The level of agreement is fairly consistent across all demographic variables, at least
in the sense that a clear majority exists in all cases. It is even the case that over
half (52%) of those who previously said candidacy age should be 18 years rather
than 21 agree with the statement! Some might argue that this presents something
of a contradiction, but of course, while a few people might agree with the
statement as it stands they might also agree in stronger terms to an alternative
outcome for a different reason. In practice they might think that candidates should
be older but in theory they might like the idea of age equality. There is also an
alternative explanation – a number might well think that the voter age should be
lowered to sixteen, in which case there is no contradiction at all.
5.8 Identical Voter and Candidate Age
Indeed, when presented with a subsequent statement, that “the minimum age for a
candidate should be the same as for voting, because if you are old enough to vote
you are old enough to be a candidate” a majority disagreed (58%) - but not to the
extent that one might have thought given the results on the previous statement. In
fact, over one in three (39%) agree with this, so it is clearly the case that a sizable
number believe that there is some truth to both arguments.
16
Age of Electoral Majority - November 2003
Those who do agree to this tend to be more male (44%) than female (33%) and as
expected, younger rather than older. The table below again demonstrates how
much more inclined younger people are to think differently from their elders, even
if older groups all think alike on this issue from about the age of 35 years.
AGE
15
16
17
18
19
% who agree that voting and candidacy
age should be the same
62%
51%
40%
62%
48%
years
years
years
years
years
18-34
35-54
55+
49%
35%
33%
As the table shows, 18 year olds’ might feel a little indignant or hard done by with
regard to this matter. Overall, two thirds (62%) think that candidacy and voting
age should be the same, which (presumably) they think should be 18 rather than
21. Given that only 48% of 19 year olds think this way, a large proportion evidently
drop their indignation over time.
Interestingly, it is also true that those who are not interested in politics and those
who don’t know that the current voting age is 18 disproportionately agree (42%
and 44% respectively) with the statement “the minimum age for a candidate
should be the same as for voting, because if you are old enough to vote you are
old enough to be a candidate”. This might suggest that (at least) a weak
correlation exists between political ignorance or apathy and not turning out to vote
in elections – i.e. that some may fail to vote once they are permitted to in
frustration or protest at not having been able to exercise their vote at an earlier
age. However, the hypothesis fails somewhat when it is considered that an identical
number of regular voters (36%) and non-voters (36%) agree.
5.9 A consistent age of voting?
An overwhelming majority of people (94%) agree that the “age at which people
can vote should be the same for all elections”, with a majority (56%) agreeing
strongly. This concept is pretty much sacrosanct for all, with agreement only falling
to 87% among BME’s. It remains above this in all other classifications of
respondent.
However, a relatively large proportion of 16 years olds and 17 year olds don’t know
(17% and 26%), which brings the ‘net’ agreement down to 77% and 69%
respectively. However, disagreement amongst these two age groups does not rise
above the average 5% threshold, which suggests this is more of an anomaly than
17
Age of Electoral Majority - November 2003
rejection of the concept. Of the 5% who do disagree, slightly more (3%) tend to
agree than strongly disagree (2%).
5.10 A consistent age for standing as a candidate?
A vast majority (88%) also agree that it should be the case “that the age at which
people can stand as a candidate should be the same for all elections”. The majority
may not be quite as high as for the voting age, but is pretty conclusive none-theless.
Some of the same patterns emerge that were identified in the previous section.
Chief among these is a drop to 69% net agreement among black and minority
ethnic groups (although it is 80% for 15-19 BME’s). Those aged 16 and 17 years
again demonstrate a lower level of agreement (66% and 64% respectively),
although mainly because they don’t know rather than disagree.
The following chart summarises the results for each of
agreement/disagreement statements referred to in sections 5.7-5.10
the
ICM Research – Electoral Commission – November 2003
AGREEMENT STATEMENTS:
Agree strongly
Tend to disagree
Tend to agree
Disagree strongly
Candidate age should
be higher than voter
age
Candidate age should
be same as voter age
58
18
20
Voter age same across
elections
23
4
20%
30%
9
13 2
38
40%
50%
60%
70%
3 5 3
80%
90% 100%
Q6. For each of the following statements do you agree strongly, tend to agree, neither agree nor disagree,
tend to disagree or disagree strongly? BASE: All respondents 18+ (1,089), booster 15-19 (279)
18
6
27
37
51
10%
3
30
56
Candidate age same
across elections
0%
Neither
four
Age of Electoral Majority - November 2003
6. Conclusions
These results represent a solid affirmation of the status quo. There may be valid
reasons for reducing the voting age but the general public are either unaware of
them or rather unimpressed by them. Indeed, a reduction in the voting age could
only be justified in this sense by attaching more importance to the wishes of
current 16-17 year olds’ than to the views of the public at large, full in the
knowledge that those same 16-17 year olds’ may well come to the conclusion in the
not too distant future that they would have been too immature or lacking in
experience to have used their vote wisely.
Rarely does a research survey produce a truly remarkable statistic. When asked
unprompted as to the age that people should be allowed to vote, the distribution of
response produced a mean age of 18.0 years. When combined with the finding that
(given the choice between 16 or 18 as the age of electoral majority) 78% would
choose the latter, the general public give a very clear statement of their views in
this survey.
There is, however, dissention when it comes to the age at which people can stand
as candidates, but not perhaps, in the way that might have been expected. Rather
than bringing the candidacy age down, a narrow plurality would prefer it to be
raised. Indeed, there is a clear preference for worldly wise and mature politicians,
and few believe that this type of individual can be found amongst the teenage
ranks. A cautionary note to this finding is the significant shift in attitude found in
response to the question relating to an identical voting age and candidacy age. If it
is the case that the general public are susceptible to the argument ‘if you are old
enough to vote then you are old enough to stand’, then we might speculate that a
concerted and well argued case based on this premise will move overall public
opinion.
What is for sure, however, is a public preference for consistency across elections.
There is precious little support for foreign models of voting where differential voting
age eligibility applies across elections depending on the seniority of the political
institution concerned. This also applies to candidacy age.
19
AGE OF ELECTORAL MAJORITY
OMNIBUS SAMPLE PLUS BOOST PLUS NORTHERN IRELAND
Q1
What do you think is the minimum age someone is legally able to do each of the
following activities in the UK? ROTATE. READ OUT. DO NOT PROMPT ANSWERS.
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
=
=
=
=
=
=
=
Vote at elections
Stand as a candidate at an election
Leave full time education
Drive a car
Drive a bus or lorry
Smoke
Gambling in a betting shop or casino
Vote at
elections
14 or under
15 years
16 years
17 years
18 years
19 years
20 years
21 years
22+ years
Any age
Don’t know
Never
AVERAGE
*%
*%
9%
2%
83%
-%
1%
4%
1%
-%
*%
N/a
17.97
Stand as a
candidate at
an election
-%
-%
2%
1%
32%
*%
3%
36%
18%
*%
8%
N/a
19.99
Leave FT
education
Drive a car
Drive a bus
or lorry
Smoke
Gambling betting
shop or casino
1%
4%
64%
4%
18%
1%
1%
2%
3%
1%
2%
N/a
16.66
-%
*%
7%
52%
32%
1%
2%
3%
2%
*%
*%
N/a
17.52
-%
*%
*%
4%
13%
1%
6%
49%
22%
-%
5%
N/a
20.58
1%
2%
55%
3%
23%
*%
1%
2%
1%
2%
4%
7%
16.72
-%
*%
4%
1%
66%
*%
3%
18%
4%
*%
3%
N/a
18.68
Q2
elections?
At what age do you think people SHOULD be able to vote in
13 years or under
14 years
15 years
16 years
17 years
18 years
19 years
20 years
21 years
22+ years
Any age
Don’t know
AVERAGE
*%
*%
1%
17%
3%
65%
*%
2%
10%
1%
*%
*%
18.0
Q3
As you may know, the independent Electoral Commission is currently
reviewing the age at which people should be allowed to vote. If the choice came
down to it do you think the minimum voting age should be lowered to 16 years or
kept at its present 18 years?
Lowered to 16 years
Kept at 18 years
Don’t know
⇒
22%
78%
*%
GO TO Q4
GO TO Q4
GO TO Q5
ASK AS APPROPRIATE
Q4
Why do you think the voting age should be lowered to 16 years/kept
at 18 years? WRITE IN. PROBE FULLY
They are still part of society = 44%
Have valid views and opinions = 31%
Mature enough at 16 = 20%
Other = 5%
⇒
ASK ALL
Q5
At what age do you think people SHOULD be able to stand as a
candidate at an election?
13 years or under
14 years
15 years
16 years
17 years
18 years
19 years
20 years
21 years
22+ years
Any age
Don’t know
AVERAGE
-%
-%
-%
3%
*%
23%
*%
4%
32%
33%
*%
3%
20.41
Age of Electoral Majority - November 2003
Q6a
For each of the following statements, do agree strongly, tend to
agree, neither agree nor disagree, tend to disagree or disagree strongly? ROTATE
The minimum age should be HIGHER for a candidate than a voter
because more experience of life is needed to be a candidate.
The minimum age to be a candidate should be the SAME as for
voting. Because if you are old enough to vote you are old enough
to be a candidate
AS = 58%
TA = 23%
Neither = 4%
TD = 9%
DS = 6%
AS = 18%
TA = 20%
Neither = 3%
TD = 31%
DS = 28%
Q6b
And for each of the following statements, do agree strongly, tend to
agree, neither agree nor disagree, tend to disagree or disagree strongly? ROTATE
The age at which people can vote should be the same for all
elections
The age at which people can stand as a candidate should be the
same for all elections
AS = 56%
TA = 37%
Neither = 1%
TD = 3%
DS = 2%
AS = 50%
TA = 38%
Neither = 3%
TD = 5%
DS = 3%
Q7
At what age did you first vote in a local or national election. It doesn’t
matter if you cannot remember exactly, your best guess will be fine?
18 years
19 years
20 years
21 years
22+ years
Never voted
Don’t know
AVERAGE
22
51%
5%
7%
16%
12%
7%
3%
19.26