North Korean Foreign Policy Submitted by Robert J. Heatherly Master of Arts in Diplomacy and Military Studies Hawai’i Pacific University Summer 2011 ii We certify that we have read this professional paper and that, in our opinion, it is satisfactory in scope and quality for a degree of Masters of Diplomacy and military Studies. Committee: Approved: Pierre Asselin, PhD., Associate Professor, HIST First Reader, 29 July, 2011 Approved: Patrick Bratton, PhD., Assistant Professor, PSCI Second Reader, 29 July 2011 iii Abstract The reclusive regime of the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea (DPRK) is intriguing. There is a special challenge in assessing the mindset of the North Korean leadership which, by its own choosing, has isolated itself from the outside world. In regards to the most recent activities carried out by North Korea, which include their first nuclear test (2006), TaepoDong II test missile launches, a cyber-attack that put South Korea and the United States Forces Korea (USFK) to their knees temporarily (2009), the sinking of the Cheonan (2010), and, most recently, the artillery attack on Yeonpyeong Island (2010), some analysts and media experts feel that the Korean peninsula is on the verge of another Korean War. Through countless alerts and operational planning with the USFK as an Army Officer, I became fascinated with how the two Koreas managed to come so close to all-out war with one another, only to have a crisis fade away. After numerous visits and operations along the Demilitarized Zone (DMZ), I quickly gained an appreciation for the tension that existed and the importance of a US military presence in the Republic of Korea (ROK). As the two countries are still technically at war, the importance of maintaining the armistice between them is increasingly significant for not only the peninsula, but also the international community, as East Asia is interdependently tied to the world. There is more to decisions made and fielded by key leaders than just whether our military capabilities are able to strike and defeat a less capable enemy. The armistice that exists on the peninsula could end and a resumption of hostilities could ensue with a single event. The incidents carried out by the North Koreans in the period 1966-1969 were unprecedented, and could have ignited war on the peninsula. Some have labeled this period of time the “Second Korean War” due to Kim Il Sung’s vision and techniques of carrying out guerilla warfare in an iv attempt to unite the Korean Peninsula. What seemed like an extreme event during the period of my time in Korea is really small potatoes compared to events during the 1960s and 1970s. North Korean actions and decisions are not predictable, but they are cyclical. This paper will attempt to analyze events during this period of “low intensity conflict” and what international factors fended off another Asian War during a time that already had the United States, China, and the USSR embroiled in a struggle in Indochina. v Acknowledgments This undertaking would not have been accomplished without the recognition of some important folks. First, and foremost, is the faculty at Hawai’i Pacific University. Their sheer professionalism, and passion for education, provides an amazing educational experience for HPU students from various countries. A few notable gentlemen are Dr. Russell Hart, Dr. Patrick Bratton, and Dr. Pierre Asselin. Dr. Hart was my lifeline with the Army’s Expanded Graduate School Program at HPU allowing me the opportunity to pursue a Master’s of Arts degree, in Diplomacy and Military Studies, by cutting through all the military “red tape.” His seminar in research and writing, along with Greg Rhodes (my peer evaluator), ensured I found a path to create this professional paper. Dr. Bratton’s seminar in National Security and Policymaking was my first taste of what graduate classes were. He is an amazing professor who I have lucked out by having for a few other seminars and as a reader for this thesis. Finally, Dr. Asselin has made me truly find the value in education. His unique style of how he conducts his seminars was challenging, yet the most rewarding educational experience I have ever had. I am also extremely grateful for having him as my primary reader for this thesis and as an educator. I owe a special recognition to all those that participated in the Vietnam Study Abroad Program conducted during the summer of 2010. This was the highlight of my HPU experience. If not for the arduous work of Dr. Asselin and Melissa Matsubara (best academic adviser ever), this program would not have been the experience that it was. The relationships that were made on that trip will not be forgotten. Neither will the good times, with good buddies, at the RnR tavern in Hanoi and the Brahhouse in Saigon with Kevin Conroy, Tracee Tsui, Ed Zelczak, Greg, Melissa, Gintare Janulaityte, and of course Dr. Asselin. vi Back on the island, I attribute the mentoring and networking opportunities I received to some of the finest establishments in Chinatown. I knew I could always receive the answers I was looking for at JJ Dolans and Murphy’s. It is also there that Chris Jones, a fellow EGSP partner in crime and good buddy, could always be counted on for career enhancing advice and guidance with life. Finally, as always, I owe my deepest gratitude to my family. My wife Jen and daughters Keira, Leila, and Kaia have endured and enjoyed life as a military family. Their love, support, and flexibility have allowed me to focus on my career wherever it may be. For the last year and a half, I have had the privilege of being a stay-at-home-dad on the North Shore while simultaneously pursuing my degree. This has been the best assignment we have experienced, and it is because of them that made it that way. vii Table of Contents: Abstract:…………………………………………………….……………………..iii Acknowledgements:………………………………………….…………………….v Table of Contents:…………………………………………….………...………...vii Introduction:…...…………………………………………………………….……..1 Chapter One: The Second Korean War/Low Intensity Conflict (1966-1969)……14 Chapter Two: The USS Pueblo and US/ROK Relations………………………….32 Chapter Three: Spring 1969 and Deep Sea 129…………………………………..53 Chapter Four: Turning Point for the Koreas?……………………………………..67 Conclusion:...…………………………………………………………………...…81 Bibliography:..……………………………………………………………………89 1 Introduction “History is written backward but lived forward. Those who know the end of the story can never know what it was like at the time.” -Dame C. Veronica Wedgwood British Historian The North Korean regime has been labeled as “crazy” by many in the international community as some of the actions it carries out are difficult to rationalize. As it turns out, history provides valuable lessons to understand that regime and its actions. It is easy to forget and cast aside past events that occurred on the Korean peninsula during a period of time that was often overshadowed by much larger operations being carried out elsewhere in Asia. As South Korea grew economically and militarily in the 1960’s and 1970’s, security and stability became critical to its development as the United States saw itself embroiled in the Cold War, confronting domestic changes at home, and fighting a war in Vietnam. For over half a century, the DPRK has struggled for reunification and survival under one flag, North Koreas, and one ruling authority, the Kim family regime. To better appreciate this, it is central to understand the past, particularly the 1960s/70s, and how outside international factors affected decision-makers in dealing with the North Koreans. The timing of military actions carried out by the DPRK are problematic to predict, but they can be expected. The rationale behind why North Koreans execute what appear to be hostile acts against the ROK and their allies is unclear. However, through careful analysis of events during the “Second Korean War,” similarities begin to appear. This thesis will attempt to analyze events that occurred during the “Second Korean War,” 1966-1969, and the reasoning behind them by utilizing some major crises as case studies. In 2 addition to these crises, this thesis will explore the international environment during that period of that time, which had a profound impact on decision-makers in regard to their military options and how they conducted crisis management. Two particular periods, and the responses of two different US Presidents, will be dissected. The number and severity of crises in January 1968, while President Lyndon Johnson was in office, weighed heavily in the options he could utilize against the Korean Communists. Additionally, the spring of 1969 gave Richard Nixon his first chance at military action against the DPRK while trying to minimize the US role and footprint in Asia and elsewhere. Furthermore, this thesis will explore if there was a turning point for North Korea in the 1970s, and what the factors were that encouraged it to change how it implemented foreign policy. Finally, this thesis will endeavor to shed some light on why the North Koreans carry out the actions that they do, and why the US responds in the manner that it does to a country that appears at times to have no fear about bringing hell to itself. Kim Il Sung is one of the most fascinating leaders of the twentieth century. He wielded his authority throughout North Korea, and became a god-like figure to those he ruled. No other Communist leader has been able to maintain their authority as long as he had. When he died in July 1994, at age 82, he had outlived Joseph Stalin by four decades and Mao Tse-tung by almost two decades, and he had remained in power throughout the terms of office of six South Korean presidents, nine US presidents, and twenty-one Japanese prime ministers.1 The Kim family regime has maintained power for over half a century by varying its tactics and strategies. In the 1960s, the DPRK resorted to guerilla tactics and infiltrations into South Korea in order to stir negative sentiment toward the ROK government among the South Korean masses. It hoped to spark rebellion in the South, encourage the masses to rise up, and overthrow the “Park puppet 1 Oberdorfer, Don. The Two Koreas: A Contemporary History. New York: Basic, 2001, p. 16. 3 regime.” Once the US sponsored government was overthrown, the South would be amalgamated into the DPRKs, and thus reunification would be achieved. For the decades that followed, Kim’s regime shifted to an aid-based society, which is “self-reliant.” His juche philosophy is the Kim family regime’s ploy to maintain authority, under the Kim dynasty, without foreign assistance. Realistically, the regime would collapse without outside assistance and humanitarian aid. The ability to seal off the country, and prevent international influence, is a brilliant technique that has allowed the Kim family to endure. While North Korea carried out various acts and operations in the 1960s and 1970s, it was cognizant of the international events that weighed heavy on Washington’s ability to retaliate militarily. It is critical to understand those two decades and the manner in which the US, ROK, and DPRK conducted their decision-making, which averted resumption of hostilities on the peninsula. Since the armistice of 1953, North Korea has wielded multiple forms of diplomacy in order to ensure regime survival. Often times, North Korea throws itself into the international spotlight by initiating an event that can be labeled as a crisis. Crises generally break out suddenly, present serious threats to states’ vital interests, and demand quick decisions under stress.2 The DPRK has conducted a number of operations that fit these criteria. Some were as significant as the invasion by the Korean People’s Army of the South in 1950, which thrust the peninsula into a three year war; others were minor such as the brutal axe murder incident of two Army Officers in 1976. According to Scott Snyder, “Crisis diplomacy is a manifestation of North Korea’s partisan guerilla legacy and an excellent means by which weak states can enhance 2 th Lauren, Paul G. Craig, Gordon A. George, Alexander L. Force and Statecraft, Diplomatic Challenges of our Time. 4 ed. New York: Oxford, 2007, p.221. 4 leverage against powerful states in negotiations on specific issues.”3 The DPRK exercises crisis diplomacy in order to gain the attention of the international community and often times forces the US into direct dialogue with them (something that the US usually tries to avoid). By igniting a crisis, the much smaller state is capable of turning the spotlight onto itself, thus being able to shape its agenda or objectives and give itself an advantage over the much larger power. The ability of the North to exercise this crisis diplomacy, coupled with the ROK and US to implement crisis management, during its military decision making is paramount to what level of force and options are carried out on each side. During a crisis, one of the main components that is typical of crisis management is clear communications. This is seen during the Cuban Missile Crisis with the dialogue exchanged between President Kennedy and Nikita Khrushchev averting nuclear war. What is problematic for the Korean peninsula is that communication during a crisis with the main actors does not always exist. Often times North Korea communicates its intentions through signaling. International actors often choose to use signals rather than direct communication for a variety of reasons. Sometimes it is inappropriate for one actor to make too direct a suggestion or demand of another, or to transmit a message in person. A message passed through signals rather than directly also “saves face” for the receiving party. It can comply without seeming weak, or refuse to comply without creating confrontation by simply ignoring the signals.4 An example of this is during negotiations at meetings with the United Nations Military Armistice Commission (UNMAC) in Panmunjom. When emergency meetings are held, North Koreans can conduct themselves in a variety of ways in order to make their intentions known without direct dialogue. For example, as 3 Snyder, Scott. Negotiating on the Edge North Korean Negotiating Behavior. Washington, D.C.: United States Institute of Peace, 1999, p.66. 4 Signaling. Diplofoundation, Web. 22 Apr. 2011. <http://www.diplomacy.edu/language/Signalling/main.htm> 5 accusations are listed to them, they may look “stone-faced,” presenting no emotion giving the perception that they do not care or find irrelevant whatever charges are being brought up by the UNMAC. The use of this body language states their position. Another example is through the action of “walking out” of talks or negotiations. With this conduct, they are capable of forcing the other party to make concessions in order to get them back to the table. Before a scheduled meeting in 1976, KPA soldiers went into the UNMAC conference room and blew their nose on the United Nations, US, and ROK flags that were aligned along the table. Additionally, they walked all over the top of the US and their allies’ side of the table with their dirty boots prior to talks, and then did not show.5 These actions clearly demonstrated that during that instance the DPRK was not ready to discuss the events of the axe murder incident at that particular time. Signaling can be dangerous, because it may not always be interpreted correctly or noticed at all. Credibility also plays a role in signaling. For example, during the Korean War, China’s warnings not to cross the 38th parallel were dismissed in part because they were indirect, oral, and conveyed by an individual – Ambassador K.M. Panikkar of India – whom US decision makers such as Secretary of State Dean Acheson and Assistant Secretary of State Dean Rusk did not regard as credible.6 The DPRK’s rationale for carrying out acts may be its attempt to signal to the international community that it needs something. As larger international events overshadow North Korea, the regime triggers events such as the nuclear test in 2006. This can be interpreted as an aggressive act for attention, or that the country is in need of something, and is its way of reaching out to the international community. The push to bring North Korea to 5 Kirkbride, Wayne A LTC(R). "Panic on the Peninsula." Brinkmanship on the Peninsula. Camp Bonifas, Panmunjom. Oct. 2008. Lecture. 6 Swaine, Michael D., Tuosheng Zhang, and Danielle F. S. Cohen. Managing Sino-American Crises: Case Studies and Analysis. Washington, D.C.: Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, 2006, p. 33. 6 engage in six party talks for the disarming of its nuclear program then enables Pyongyang to have something to use as leverage in exchange for something else, such as humanitarian aid. A very successful tool of statecraft carried out by the North is deterrence. Deterrence consists of an effort to persuade an opponent to refrain from taking certain action, such as an armed attack, that is viewed as being highly dangerous to one’s interests by making them fear the consequences of such behavior.7 The rolling footage of KPA soldiers “goose stepping” and military equipment rolling through Kim Il Sung Square in Pyongyang is an ever present reminder to the world that the DPRK is a capable military force. The Kim family regime’s ability to fortify its country and militarize its people, displaying its military capability to the world, are intended to prevent something undesirable from happening to it.8 Over the last two decades, the DPRK has massed artillery and rocket systems along its side of the DMZ. By 2001, it created a capability of unleashing 500,000 rounds of artillery and rockets an hour into Seoul.9 A military attack from the US or ROK is what Pyongyang attempts to deter. During the Cold War, the North’s support by the nuclear-equipped Communist states of the Soviet Union and China was a deterring factor for the US and ROK to not utilize military options during some of the crises that will be examined later. More recently, the detrimental effect that the influx of thousands of North Korean refugees would have on the South Korean and Chinese economy, should hostilities resume, has impacted decision-makers and contingency planners of the USFK, with these two countries so interdependently tied to the international world. The collapsing of South Korea’s economy, should a military reunification attempt occur, is a consequence that would have global 7 Lauren, Paul G. Craig, Gordon A. George, Alexander L, p.177. Art, Robert, “To What Ends Military Power?” International Security 4, no. 3 (Spring 1980), p.6. 9 Michishita, Narushige. North Korea's Military-Diplomatic Campaigns, 1966-2008. London: Routledge, 2010, p.193-194. 8 7 implications. Therefore, whether cognizant of it or not, the North is able to fend off resumption of hostilities initiated by the US and ROK through the fear of the end result that may materialize. Another common method the North Koreans utilize is coercive diplomacy. Also known as compellence, military coercion, coercive military strategy, strategic coercion, or forceful persuasion,10 coercive diplomacy utilizes threats of force in order to reverse an action that has already been committed by an adversary. Unlike deterrence, coercive diplomacy can be either an offensive or defensive tool.11 It can also be explained as the process by which one nation tries to convince another nation to do something it would not otherwise do, through implicit or explicit threats, and limited uses of violence, either to thwart an enemy’s action or to punish it.12 A common, and often utilized, attempt by the North Koreans is the rhetoric they announce before, during, and after large scale training exercises conducted by the US and ROK military. For years now, the USFK has conducted joint US/ROK exercises every spring and fall. Just like clockwork the DPRK announces that, “If exercises commence then they will turn Seoul into a sea of fire.”13 This example was starting to lose its credibility, though, due to its repetitive application whenever an exercise did occur in South Korea. However, after the shelling of Yeonpyeong Island in 2010, the seriousness of the threat of force rematerialized. Therefore coercion depends on two factors: credibility (whether the target believes that the coercer will execute its threats) and persuasiveness (whether the threats will have a great impact on the 10 Bratton, Patrick C. "When Is Coercion Successful? And Why Can't We Agree on It." Naval War College Review 58.3 (2005): p. 100. 11 Lauren, Paul G. Craig, Gordon A. George, Alexander L, p.200-201. 12 Twomey, Christopher P. The Military Lens: Doctrinal Difference and Deterrence Failure in Sino-American Relations. Ithaca, NY: Cornell UP, 2010, p. 19. 13 Willancy, Mark. “North Korea Threatens Seoul with Sea of Fire.” ABC News. 28 Feb. 2011. Web. 22 Apr. 2011. < http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2011/02/28/3150227.htm> 8 target).14 Lauren, Craig, and George state in Force and Statecraft, that “The volatile nature of the bargaining, when coupled with the employment of threats and perhaps the demonstration of just enough exemplary military force to emphasize one’s determination to use more if necessary, thus requires careful and diplomatic communication and signaling, bargaining, negotiating, and crisis management with the opponent.”15 The key component here is the application of just enough military force. The DPRK is able to attain a delicate balance that creates a crisis, without full blown war, in order to regain credibility with their threats. In reality, the DPRK may be more rational than many others believe. The utilization of “sticks” is a means to coerce a state. The US and the international community have used a two pronged approach in carrying out economic sanctions against the DPRK. The sanctions, or “sticks”, are meant to be a punishment in response to an act, and also as a tool to convince North Korea to reverse an action or behavior. Coercive diplomacy, then, calls for using just enough force of an appropriate kind—if force is used at all—to demonstrate one’s resolve to protect well-defined interests as well as the credibility of one’s determination to use more force if necessary.16 Through the use of sanctions, the US and international community are able to apply a measure of force on Pyongyang that “does something” and is also reversible. There is also the capability to apply even harsher sanctions, if need be, should the DPRK not perform as dictated. Another slant on coercion is through the larger application of military force instead of just sanctions or rhetoric. As the severity of the offensive attacks increase, coercion can be 14 Thies, Wallace, “Compellance Failure or Coercive Success: The Case of NATO and Yugoslavia,” Comparative Strategy, 22 June 2003, p. 5. 15 Lauren, Paul G. Craig, Gordon A. George, Alexander L, p.201. 16 Alexander George, Hall David, and Simons William, The Limits of Coercive Diplomacy: Laos, Cuba and Vietnam, Boston: Little, Brown, 1971, p. 10. 9 explained as the use of force to get the target to comply with the demands of the coercer, but without completely destroying the military forces of, and occupying, the target state.17 The aggressive guerilla attacks of the Second Korean War, which will be analyzed in the next chapter, illustrate how the DRPK attempted to coerce the US to withdraw from the peninsula by killing and wounding US service members along the DMZ. The North was not capable of destroying all the US forces on the peninsula, nor was it able to occupy the South, but the application of force on American targets was an attempt at coercing the US to leave the South. The final method of diplomacy relative to this thesis is brinkmanship. Brinkmanship may be the most dangerous method of diplomacy in that it involves forcing a dangerous situation, event, or incident to the brink of war in order to achieve a desired outcome. For the DPRK, the risk that real threats might be discounted as just empty talk coming from Pyongyang may spark the North Korean leaders to take greater risks in order to grab the attention of its counterparts in Washington. The risk of miscalculation can result in the potential escalation of conflict.18 As the risks become greater, so does the chance that a small crisis can quickly escalate to a severe one. “Operation Paul Bunyan” in 1976, which will be examined later, is an example of how two opposing sides can quickly escalate a situation to near war. The North Koreans appear to have become world experts at this with its actions and rhetoric. More recently, in April of 2009, the world was on edge as a Taepo-Dong II missile was photographed on a launch pad in northeast North Korea. The world did not know whether it was equipped with a nuclear warhead, and where exactly it was going to be test-fired. The US moved Aegis destroyers, outfitted with Ballistic Missile Defense (BMD) systems, into the Sea of Japan and West of Hawaii in order to intercept the missile if it posed as a threat. Additionally, mobile BMD systems were deployed to 17 18 Bratton, p. 102. Snyder, p.77. 10 Japan’s coast in order to protect its citizens from the imminent threat. Kim Jong Il announced, “If our sworn enemies come at us with a dagger, we will brandish a sword. If they train a rifle at us, we will respond with a cannon - we will surely win.”19 His claim was that the DPRK was attempting to launch a satellite into space. For days the world stood by to see what would unfold during a few day window of when the launch was scheduled to occur. On 5 April 2009, the missile was launched. North Koreans claimed that the outcome was a success with the placement of a satellite into orbit, whereas the US claimed that it “fell” harmlessly into the Pacific Ocean. Regardless, the tension on the peninsula leading up to the event quickly dissipated soon after the affair. One certain thing is that the DPRK wields all these methods of diplomacy in order to achieve strategic objectives and maintain regime survival. They have coped with famine and near economic collapse only to rise from it while still maintaining their sovereignty. A most frustrating element for US policymakers, military leaders, and scholars is the North’s reclusive policies and procedures which enable it to have an advantage against larger powers. The “hermit kingdom” has utilized this leverage since the days of Kim Il Sung, and it appears to have no plans to alter or relinquish its approach. This thesis will utilize an assortment of sources to try and piece together the puzzle that is North Korean foreign policy. The works of Scott Snyder20 and Narushige Michishita21 have been instrumental in developing an understanding of why the North Koreans behave in the way 19 Quoted in: Choe, Sang-Hun, “Memo from Seoul - North Korea Perfects Its Diplomatic Game - Brinkmanship,” The New York Times - Breaking News, World News & Multimedia, 2 April 2009, Web, 22 April 2011. <http://www.nytimes.com/2009/04/03/world/asia/03korea.html> 20 Snyder, Scott. Negotiating on the Edge North Korean Negotiating Behavior. Washington, D.C.: United States Institute of Peace, 1999. 21 Michishita, Narushige. North Korea's Military-Diplomatic Campaigns, 1966-2008. London: Routledge, 2010. 11 they do. Snyder’s work explores the cultural and psychological perceptions that influence why Pyongyang carries out various tactics. It is necessary to understand where the North Koreans emerged from after the Korean War, in order to attempt to make some meaning of the DPRK leader’s decisions. The cult of personality that arose from Kim Il Sung and has now been passed down to Kim Jong Il is identified by both these authors as serving to rationalize why the DPRK has been so successful with controlling its masses. Michishita analyzed multiple events from the 1960s to 2006 that occurred on the Korean Peninsula and almost caused resumption of hostilities. His observations and conclusions have been extremely useful to develop this thesis. Daniel Bolger22 and Trevor Armbrister23 provide a wealth of information on the actual crises that occurred in 1966-1969. Their argument is consistent with this thesis. South Korea was in a fragile state, only thirteen years after the armistice, with a semi-militarized government of questionable legitimacy and an aggressive northern neighbor. The ROK was vulnerable to infiltration and insurgency, and Pyongyang attempted to cause domestic unrest in hopes of uniting the peninsula under the DPRK regime.24 Their statistics, interviews, and other sources serve as quantitative and qualitative reinforcement to the arguments during a particular time and place. Armbrister’s detailed analysis on the USS Pueblo and Deep Sea 129 has been referenced by numerous other pieces of scholarship which attribute it as one of the most comprehensive studies for those crises. Additionally, Lieutenant Colonel (Retired) Wayne Kirkbride and the soldiers stationed at the Joint Security Area in Panmunjom South Korea provide the details through firsthand accounts of the axe murder incident of 1976 along the Demilitarized Zone. LTC (R) Kirkbride has written numerous pieces incorporated into this thesis. 22 Bolger, Daniel P. Scenes from an Unfinished War: Low Intensity Conflict in Korea 1966-1969. Darby, PA: Diane Publishing Company, 2001. 23 Armbrister, Trevor. A Matter of Accountability The True Story of the Pueblo Affair. New York: Lyons, 2004. 24 Bolger, p. 120. 12 Finally, this thesis relies extensively on primary source materials. Although it is near impossible to obtain declassified documents from Pyongyang to support a justification for North Korean actions, the scrutinizing of translated documents from the Soviet Union can assist with assembling inferences. The Cold War International History Project, The North Korea International Documentation Project, and (most utilized) Foreign Relations of the United States have made available a wealth of declassified top secret, secret, and other documents from the 1960s and 70s. The value of these telegrams, memorandums, and talking points that were passed along from US and ROK presidents to ambassadors, military commanders, and various secretaries of defense and state provide an understanding of the political and military decisionmaking in response to crises and how domestic and international factors impacted their resolutions. Today, the United States is engaged in combat operations in Iraq, Afghanistan, and Libya while undergoing advisory and counter-terrorism missions in South America, the Philippines, and Indonesia. In addition to being spread thin militarily, its economy is trying to recover from a recession. While currently occupied elsewhere, America has seen hostile acts being carried out by the DPRK. In October 2006, North Korea conducted a nuclear test, and became the world’s eighth atomic power. It has continued to perform missile launches with its Taepo-dong II Intercontinental Ballistic Missile despite warnings and threats from the international community. On March 26, 2010, the US and ROK looked the other way when a DPRK submarine sunk the ROKS Cheonan, killing 46 sailors. On November 23,, 2010 Yeonpyeong Island (near the disputed Northern Limit Line) was fired upon by DPRK artillery in response to a training exercise conducted by the ROK. The attack left two ROK Marines and two civilians dead, and scores wounded. Some ROK artillery rounds were expended in support of a counter-fire 13 mission, but no US response was carried out. This was the first attack carried out against civilians by the DPRK military since the armistice, and it escalated tensions on the peninsula to levels not seen since the 1960/70s. US forces have been on the peninsula since the end of WWII either in an advisory, combat, or now as a supporting role. If the thousands of American troops stationed there are a deterrent against DPRK aggression against the South, then why has the US not responded through force to prevent incidents from happening again? Besides threats, rhetoric, and “shows of military force,” the US has not conducted an application of military power directly on the DPRK since the armistice. 14 Chapter I The Second Korean War/Low Intensity Conflict (1966-1969) The ROK’s ability to normalize relations with Japan in 1965 had a twofold effect on the peninsula. It became formally recognized by its “Asian brothers” and also opened itself up to foreign investment (particularly for Japan). In 1966, the US provided the ROK with 70.8 billion Korean won, which made up 82.9% of its total defense cost. This aid increased to 95.3 billion Korean by 1968.25 Kim Il Sung realized that a new strategy was needed in order to unite the peninsula upon termination of the South Korean government.26 As the US and ROK conventional military balance on the peninsula shifted in their favor, Pyongyang resorted to aggressive guerilla tactics and border intrusions in order to try and destabilize the South to win over the “oppressed Southern masses.” These minor incidents would sometimes escalate into full blown firefights along the DMZ. Violent attempts to wreak chaos and havoc on the South included the Blue House Raid, the capture of the USS Pueblo and her crew, and the downing of the US EC-121 Deep Sea 129. The 1960s was an era of unprecedented change internationally and domestically in the United States. The most obvious event that took center stage for the American people was the war in Vietnam. After 1954, the year France suffered a humiliating defeat at Dien Bien Phu, the US maintained a presence in South Vietnam. Between 1960, the last year of Dwight Eisenhower’s presidency, and the assassination of his successor, John F. Kennedy, in 1963, the 25 Loo, Bernard Fook Weng. Middle Powers and Accidental Wars: a Study in Conventional Strategic Stability. Lewiston, NY: Edwin Mellen, 2005, p. xi. 26 Bolger, p. 1. 15 number of American advisors assigned to the Army of the Republic of (South) Vietnam rose from 875 to 16,263.27 On August 2 and 4, 1964, North Vietnamese patrol boats allegedly fired on the US destroyers Maddox and C. Turner Joy. President Johnson ordered airstrikes against the patrol boats and their support facilities. Within days, Congress passed the Gulf of Tonkin Resolution allowing the president to use “all necessary steps to prevent further aggression.”28 The US picked and chose its targets carefully in the North and was careful not to inject too many combat troops close to the Chinese border. Incrementalism was necessary to keep China at bay while attempting to persuade Hanoi to cease operations. The memory of the Korean War, with the surge of Chinese troops, was still fresh in the minds of military decision makers. While occupied with operations in Indochina, attacks and infiltrations along the Korean DMZ peaked in 1968 as with US troop levels in Vietnam, with 536,100 US military personnel deployed there.29 On January 20, 1968 approximately 20,000 North Vietnamese launched an attack against Khe Sanh in order to draw US and ARVN combat troops to the countryside in preparation for a larger offensive. The world was taken by surprise when on January 31, 1968 the Tet Offensive was executed by the North Vietnamese. This all out attack by the Communists gave the urbanites in Saigon, Da Nang, and Hue a taste of the war which till then was fought in the countryside. More devastating was the impact it had on the US public. Until then, General Westmoreland’s strategy of search and destroy and the battle of attrition had the American public believing that the war was being won due to the sheer disparity in casualties inflicted on 27 . Asselin, Pierre. A Bitter Peace: Washington, Hanoi, and the Making of the Paris Agreement. Chapel Hill: University of North Carolina, 2002, p.1. 28 Turley, William S. The Second Indochina War: A Concise Political and Military History. Lanham, MD: Rowman & Littlefield, 2009, p. xxv. 29 Ibid, p.xxviii. 16 the North Vietnamese and Viet Cong, versus US combat troops. The ability for a handful of Viet Cong sappers to infiltrate the US embassy in Saigon gave a sober awakening to policy-makers and US citizens that the war was not being won by the Johnson administration. Over 40,000 Viet Cong Soldiers were killed during the Tet Offensive,30 which was a severe blow to their manpower; however, the strategic victory the Communists gained over the American public paid dividends. Tet was the turning point in the Vietnam War as strong public opposition took stage in the United States with the antiwar movement. This was the Achilles heel of the United States’ intervention into Vietnam. The collapse of the national will of the United States versus the fierce nationalism of the Vietnamese people ultimately led to the strategic defeat of the most powerful country in the world. More importantly it impacted Washington’s military options on the Korean peninsula. As the United States was actively engaged in combat operations in Indochina, events that were occurring on the Korean peninsula can be characterized as “low intensity conflict.” The U.S. Army's training manual FC 100-20 defines low intensity conflict (LIC) as follows: "LIC is a limited politico-military struggle to attain political, military, social, economic or psychological objectives. It is often of lengthy duration and extends from diplomatic, economic and psychological pressure to terrorism and insurgency. LIC is generally confined to a specific geographical area and is often characterized by limitations of armaments, tactics and level of force. LIC involves the actual or contemplated use of military means up to just below the threshold of battle between regular armed forces31." 30 DeFronzo. p. 170. Field Circular "low-Intensity Conflict",FC 100-20, U.S. Army Command and General Staff College, Fort Leavenworth/Kansas, May 30, 1986, p. v. 31 17 LIC explains itself in its name. It is conflict at a smaller scale but still deadly, with the potential to escalate into larger combat operations. As the ROK military increased in size, Kim Il Sung realized that to be successful he needed to find a way to rid the peninsula of the US presence without another full blown conventional war. By utilizing guerilla tactics the North could potentially create a situation that would encourage Americans troops to depart the peninsula without leading to a full blown war, which would have potentially devastating effects for the DPRK. Like the DPRK, Washington did not desire to escalate events on the peninsula, which could have dragged the US into a two front war against Communism. Daniel Bolger’s explanation of LIC is clearly articulated in Scenes from an Unfinished War. He conveys that: LIC occurs when the U.S. military seeks limited aims with a relatively modest number of available regular forces. The low aspect of LIC refers directly to the degree of American commitment (certainly not to the level of violence or degree of enemy commitment). A few selected U.S. reserves may participate, but there is essentially no mobilization. Even a partial mobilization, whether formal (as in the Korean War) or informal (as in Vietnam), elevates the conflict to the mid-intensity realm, with all the resultant political hazards both at home and abroad. Given this comprehensive definition, LIC necessarily comprises more than counterinsurgency. It entails almost any restrained use of U.S. military force to advance its interests in the Third World, to include peacekeeping, combating terrorism, and handling peacetime contingencies. Yet it is typical of the rather muddled views on this subject that many experts employ the terms LIC and counterinsurgency interchangeably. Whatever the Vietnam experience suggests about U.S. abilities to battle insurgents, it offers little insight into American capacities for peacekeeping, fighting terrorists, or handling a diverse grab bag of contingencies (i.e., everything from punitive bombings and rescue efforts to shows of force).”32 The United States conducted LIC operations in the 1960s and had been successful. US operations in the Congo (1960-65), Thailand (1964-74), the Dominican Republic (1965-66), and Bolivia (1966-67), with the use of Special Forces advisors, yielded positive results but were 32 Bolger, p. xii. 18 overshadowed by the more massive undertaking that occurred in Vietnam.33 As Kim Il Sung shifted his tactics on the Korean Peninsula, the ROK and the United States would once again be facing off with the DPRK on familiar territory with the same strategic goal in mind. DMZ Incidents / Force Posture After the armistice was signed on July 27, 1953, the buffer zone that would separate the two Koreas was established. The agreement called for both sides to move their forces 2,000 meters from the Military Demarcation Line (MDL). The MDL, marked by 1,291 yellow signs in English and Korean on one side and Korean and Chinese on the other, stretches for 151 miles from the Han River in the west to the East Sea (Sea of Japan) to the east.34 The DMZ is an area 2,000 meters on each side of the MDL that was a buffer zone of 4,000 meters total. After its creation, both sides would conduct patrols along their respective side of the MDL under the arrangement that they would not cross over or interfere with the other side. Bolger details the conditions surrounding the DMZ: Aside from the rough natural surroundings, both sides had undertaken improvements in the neutral buffer area. These refinements facilitated early warning of any major attack. A string of observation posts, authorized by the truce, dotted each portion of the DMZ itself. The north prepared minefields and fighting positions just north of the DMZ; to a lesser degree, the U.S.ROK troops also readied defensive lines just south of their side of the zone. The armistice allowed no crew-served weapons, armored vehicles, artillery, or fortifications in the zone. Each side could send only 1,000 men into the DMZ at any one time. Once there, these temporarily designated "DMZ police" could patrol as necessary "for the conduct of civil administration and relief" on their side of the MDL. Both sides agreed to refrain from firing weapons across the MDL, over flights of the DMZ, and infiltrations of any type. Joint Observer Teams (UN and 33 34 Ibid, p. xiii. Kirkbride, Wayne A. Panmunjom. Seoul: Hollym, 1985, p. 22. 19 Chinese-DPRK) Nations Teams (Swedish, Swiss, Czechs, and Poles) based at Panmunjom supposedly enforced these provisions.35 North Korea broke many of the provisions laid out in the agreement. Among the violations, it fortified its DMZ outposts, incorporated machine guns, mortars, recoilless rifles, and even created a special force of permanent DMZ Police well in excess of the numbers allowed. Moreover, they shot at any United Nations Command (UNC) soldier on or near the MDL, including those placing markers in accordance with the armistice.36 In contrast, UN troops generally followed the regulations. Occasionally, patrols, either intentionally or unintentionally, would intrude into the other side’s operational space and small scale firefights would ensue. These “skirmishes” did not occur often, until the last half of the 1960s. The Korean People’s Army (KPA) patrols found the DMZ to be an area of opportunity as joint US/ROK patrols provided them with a target rich environment. KPA patrols would set up ambushes along well-traveled roads and wait for a US/ROK patrol to enter the kill zone. Complacency was often associated with the US/ROK troops deployed along the DMZ prior to the years of the Second Korean Conflict. However, as firefights increased from 22 incidents in 1966 to 143 in 1967 (see Table I), Americans and South Koreans took precautions. Units assumed higher readiness postures along and behind the DMZ and in the exposed coastal command regions.37 The firefights continued though in 1968 when their numbers reached an alltime high, 236 incidents. That same year also brought about the highest number of DPRK agents seized by UNC forces, 1,245 (see Table I). 35 Bolger, p. 21. Senate, The United States and the Korean Problem, Document 74, Articles 1-11, 23, 27, Korean Armistice Agreement. 37 Bolger, p.101. 36 20 Table I - The Second Korean Conflict: A Statistical Summary, 1966-6938 1966 1967 1968 1969 DMZ Incidents Firefight 22 143 236 39 KPA harassing fire 3 5 19 4 KPA mining 0 16 8 0 12 280 223 24 25 U.S.-ROK fire on suspected KPA Casualties KPA KIA 13 KPA WIA KPA PW 126 233 accurate totals not available 1 4 4 17 10 5 1 DPRK agents seized 205 787 1,245 225 ROK/U.S. KIA 29/6 115/16 145/171 10/362 ROK/U.S. WIA 28/1 243/51 240/54 39/5 ROK/U.S. PW 0/0 0/0 0/82 0/33 KPA defector 3 1 This column includes 1 U.S. KIA and 82 U.S. PWs (January-December 1968) from the USS Pueblo. The PWs were released by the DPRK. 2 This total includes 31 U.S. KIA when their EC-121 M was shot down by KPAF jets on 15 April 1969. It does not include 8 U.S. deaths resulting from the crash of a medical evacuation helicopter on 15 March 1969. 3 These 3 U.S. Army helicopter crewmen were held from August until December 1969, then released. Northern forces would also use the seas to outflank the DMZ with incursions via water. South Korea had to protect almost 6,800 kilometers of irregular, island-strewn seacoast. The narrow coastal plains (five kilometers wide to the east, up to twenty to the west) included most of the important cities, roads, and military facilities, all well within striking distance for seaborne raiders.39 The ability of infiltrators to slip into these coastal areas provided the US and ROK a whole other region to defend and close off from DPRK agents. The North Korean agents were thoroughly trained in guerilla tactics and operated in small teams when maneuvering, making detection difficult. When engaged in direct military contact, however, they fought with cunning and aggressiveness. The infiltrators proved adept at 38 Sources, Finley. The US Military Experience in Korea, 220; and Lieutenant Colonel Everett H. Webster, United States Air Force, Is the Morning Calm About to Be Broken in Korea?" 8-9, Research report no. 4471, Air War College, Air University, Maxwell Air Force Base, AL, March 1971. 39 Ibid, p. 23. 21 arranging violent ambushes, breaking contact, or waiting patiently for pursuers to pass bywhichever technique best suited their tactical situation. If trapped, these North Koreans rarely surrendered, preferring suicide by hand grenade.40 They were not the same enemy the US had grown accustomed to during the Korean War. A major concern for the US leadership was how to counter these attacks with the troops and equipment available. The Korean theater was not privy to the same technologically advanced weapon systems utilized in the Vietnam War. In addition, the quality and quantity of the troops did not exist because of the war in Vietnam and the need to base troops in Europe. South Korea had two US Infantry Divisions stationed there. The 2nd Infantry Division and 7th Infantry Division made up the bulk of the US combat forces on the peninsula during that time. Both American divisions lacked the usual complement of infantry battalions; the US 7th Infantry Division had only one tank battalion instead of the usual two.41 Assets on the peninsula were diverted to Vietnam in order to create fully filled units in Indochina. Additionally, in Korea, each infantry battalion, while undermanned, consisted of only three rifle companies, whereas the battalions in Vietnam consisted of four rifle companies at full strength.42 Though they had most of their individual weapons, each division was missing its share of authorized helicopters. General Bonesteel, Commander of United Nations Command and US Forces in Korea, recalled: "When I got there on 1 September 1966, there were only four or five Hueys. That was the total number of Hueys in South Korea.”43 These were utilized as expensive 40 Guthrie, William P, COL United States Army, "Korea: The Other DMZ," Infantry 60 (March-April 1970), p. 17. Major Vandon E. Jenerette, United States Army, "The Forgotten DMZ," Military Review 68 (May 1988):40. 42 United States. Congress, Senate, Committee on Armed Services, Combat Readiness of United States and South Korean Forces in South Korea, Fourth Cong, 2d sess. Washington. DC, 7 June 1968, 4-5. 43 Wicker, Rush R, United States Army, "CH-37 Mojave Workhorse of Korea," United States Army Aviation Digest 14 July 1968, p. 32-34. 41 22 air taxies for the Corps Headquarters and not for US or ROK operations. The two US aviation brigades that existed on the peninsula had only 20 of the required 80 helicopters per brigade in their inventory. In addition, the brigade had to substitute the elderly and underpowered two-seat OH-23 Raven helicopters for the more modern OH-6A Cayuse and LH-1D Iroquois (Huey) types.44 The necessity for light infantry to conduct air assault missions with rotary winged aircraft is essential for quick insertion operations against guerillas. Not only was there a lack of helicopters, but outdated tanks would have also added to the ineffectiveness if conventional war broke out. Troops in Vietnam conducted armor operations with the new 90mm M-48A3 diesel-engine tanks. These new tanks utilized a diesel engine that was stronger and more efficient in comparison to the gas powered M-48A2 tanks still utilized in Korea. US tanks in South Korea were older, and the lack of and unavailability of spare parts hampered training and exercises. Armor commanders chose to maintain their combat readiness and not risk the chance for their equipment to break down. Therefore, they would not participate in training exercises in case war was to break out on the peninsula.45 Like today, most units also had Korean Augmentation to US Army (KATUSA) soldiers assigned to their ranks. If utilized correctly, KATUSAs could prove to be very beneficial to the US units, with their knowledge of the local language, culture, and customs. This knowledge enabled patrols to become more adept at counter-insurgency warfare through small unit training conducted by the KATUSAs themselves. Unfortunately, many KATUSA’s lacked the ability to speak and understand English, and therefore ended up as riflemen. They also required additional 44 th nd United States Department of the Army, Table of Organization and Equipment no. 7 , 2 Infantry Division, Washington, DC: United States Government Printing Office, 31 March 1966, 1, 2, 10, 17, 64, 66, 72. 45 Norton, Robert F. "Armor Helps Defend the ROK." Armor 77, September/October, 1968,18-20. 23 training time in order to grasp infantry maneuvers and understand the modern technology that the US possessed.46 Short assignment tours had a detrimental effect on the ability to build cohesion as a unit. The typical Korea deployment lasted thirteen months.47 Similar to Vietnam, the soldiers and leadership would rotate in, not as whole units, but as individuals that would need to be integrated within the unit as quickly as possible. This had a negative effect on the ability of troops to develop a good rapport with one another and build leadership within the ranks. Just as soon as a soldier or officer would develop the experience and knowledge needed to be effective with the situation on Korea, they would re-deploy back to the US or Vietnam. In addition, many of the quality leaders did not want to be in Korea, feeling that it would be a “career killer” as opposed to a deployment to Vietnam. As one general commented, "I've known of officers who chose retirement rather than come here (Korea) because they thought it was a dead end.”48 The low morale and poor leadership would have been destructive had the resumption of hostilities resumed. Even though the ROK had approximately 46,000 troops deployed in support of US operations in Vietnam, the priority for the Korean leadership was the defense of the Korean peninsula.49 Unlike the US, the ROK Army fielded full-strength units on the peninsula. Quantity did not equal quality though; the ROKs did have their problems. They carried weapons two generations behind the new models used in Vietnam by their counterparts. For example, 46 Colonel Charles L. Bachtel, United States Army (ret.), "The KATUSA Program," Signal 23, December, 1968, 42-44. Guthrie, p.20. 48 Binder, James L. "On the Line in Korea: The Porous War." Army, 19 January 1969, 57. 49 Bolger, p. 29. 47 24 they still trained and used semiautomatic Ml Garand rifles, which were severely overmatched by the KPA’s automatic AK-47.50 What the ROK’s lacked in firepower, they made up for in training. Draftees ordinarily served all thirty-three months of active duty in the same company, allowing almost three times the stability of the US system. American observers rated the ROK line soldiers as "well trained" and praised the "high esprit de corps" in their outfits.51 As Bolger clarifies, the ROK leadership differed greatly from that of the US. Although very competent, the South Korean officers tended to treat American field manuals as prescriptive orders rather than descriptive conceptual approaches. When stumped, they waited for guidance. This did not always come, as Korean officers tended to suppress embarrassing news rather than risk offending their American superiors and advisers. According to General Bonesteel, “If things went according to plan, the ROK Army excelled. If not, they didn't know how to operate."52 Despite all the deficiencies that US and South Korean Forces suffered during the 1960s, the ability for them to win a decisive victory in a conventional battle remained. Although their equipment was outdated, training inadequate, and leadership poor, it still was better than the conventional KPA unit and soldier when conducting operations as a coalition. In addition, UNC armed forces personnel (see Table II) nearly doubled that of the DPRK. The DPRK did outnumber UNC Special Operations Forces almost three to one. Therefore, for these and other reasons, Kim Il Sung chose to conduct irregular guerilla warfare from 1966-1969 instead of facing South Korea head-on. His attempt at utilizing offensive coercive diplomacy failed to 50 Binder, p. 57. United States Congress, Senate Committee on Armed Services, p. 9. 52 Crane, Paul S. M.D., "Korean Attitudes and Thought Patterns-Prepared for UNC/USFK," in the personal papers of Colonel Walter B. Clark, United States Army (ret.), Bonesteel interview, Charleston, SC, 11 January 1967, 329, 338. 51 25 remove the US footprint from South Korea and unite the peninsula under his flag. In addition, the buildup of North Korean forces during this period placed a heavy burden on the North Korean economy. The DPRK allocated approximately 30% of its budget on defense during this period, and in 1969 the gap between it and the ROK’s per capita gross national product continued to widen.53 Table II - Balance of Conventional Military Power in Korea, November 196654 DPRK UNC (U.S. portion) 386,000 675,000 (55,000) Soldiers 345,000 600,000 (50,000)1 Special Operations Forces 3,000 1,000 Border Guards 26,000 39,000 Regular divisions 24 22 Reserve divisions 102 10 Tanks 800 656 (216) Other armored vehicles 900 1,381 (781) Artillery 5,200 2,160 (224) Airmen 30,000 28,000 (5,000) Combat airplanes 590 265 (60) Helicopters 20 65 (58) Sailors 9,000 17,450 (450) Marines 2,000 30,050 (50) Destroyers/frigates 0 7 Submarines 4 0 Minor combatants 79 30 Landing craft 20 23 Auxiliaries 34 12 ARMED FORCES PERSONNEL Army (2) Air Force Navy 1 About 46,000 ROK troops (2 Army divisions, 1 Marine brigade) were deployed to Vietnam at this time. They have been included in this table, although they were not immediately available. At this time, little public information had been released concerning DPRK reserve divisions, Some U.S. sources later estimated that the DPRK disposed from 10 to 17 low-strength mobilization divisions (roughly equivalent of ROK reserve units). 2 Blue House Raid We were given the mission on January 17, 1968 by LTG Kim Chung-Tae. We [North Korean commandos] were to infiltrate into South Korea with the express purpose of assassinating South Korean president 53 54 Hamm, Taik-Young, Arming the Two Koreas: State, Capital, and Military Power, London, Routledge, 1999, p.100. Bolger, p. 14. 26 Park Chung-hee and his family. Not only were we to kill Park Chung-Hee but we were to chop his head off and toss it into the streets of Seoul.55 - Lieutenant Kim, Shin-Jo (the lone North Korean survivor from the Blue House Raid of 1968) As winter fell on the Korean Peninsula, past trends reflected that violent activity decreased as patrols along the DMZ and infiltrations fell drastically. Infiltrators were more easily detected during the winter along the DMZ, as no foliage provided them concealment. No one expected what occurred on January 21, 1968. Kim Il Sung’s utilization of special forces, till this point, had been extremely successful infiltrating into South Korea. North Korea established elite special operations units, numbering 1,200 personnel, capable of conducting subversion, espionage, agitation, and supporting or carrying out militant guerilla action.56 The primary units involved with carrying out these attacks were the 124th and 283rd Special Forces Units.57 The members of these teams were hand selected and the training and indoctrination process was intense. According to Kim Shin-Jo (the lone survivor of Team 124), “Our training in the special forces was all about survival. We climbed a mountain higher than 1,000 meters alone and tried to survive. Of 100,000 agents who went through such training, 31 were handpicked to form the 124th Special Forces Unit. We were the cream of the crop, chosen to raid the Blue House.”58 55 GI Korea. "DMZ Flashpoints: The Blue House Raid." ROK Drop. 30 Dec. 2008. Web. 07 Feb. 2011. <http://rokdrop.com/2008/12/30/dmz-flashpoints-the-blue-house-raid/>. 56 “Situation in Korea as of mid-July 1967,” Telegram from the Commander in Chief, United Nations Command, Korea and the Commander United States Forces, Korea (Bonesteel) to the Commander in Chief, Pacific (Sharp), July 21, 1967, in US Department of State, Foreign Relations of the United States, 1964-1968, vol. 29, part 21, Korea, Washington DC: US Government Printing Office, 2000, p.264. 57 Lee Hyun-taek. "A Would-be Assassin Builds a New Life." INSIDE Korea JoongAng Daily. 4 Nov. 2009. International Herald Tribune. 28 Apr. 2011 <http://joongangdaily.joins.com/article/view.asp?aid=2912061>. 58 Ibid. 27 This 31-man detachment from the 124th Army Unit began training in 1967. Besides survival training, the men were well-versed in hit and run attacks, booby traps, and even propaganda indoctrination techniques. In January 1968, KPA Reconnaissance Bureau chief Lieutenant General Kim Chung-tae met the men and told them, "Your mission is to go to Seoul and cut off the head of Park Chung Hee."59 The members of Team 124 understood their mission and realized that their actions could decide the outcome of the Second Korean War. North Korean Lieutenant Kim Shin Jo explained that killing the ROK president "would create political problems within the South Korean government and would agitate the South Korean people to fight with arms against their government and the American imperialists."60 On the evening of 17 January, the team changed into ROK Army uniforms and penetrated the US 2nd Infantry Division sector. They cut several holes through the chain-link fence and slipped the entire group through. They moved carefully for two days and nights through the American division's sector. The speed at which the team moved would astonish US Commanders later. They were able to traverse the mountainous terrain with 20 kilogram packs at a speed of about eight minutes per mile.61 The second night the North Koreans even camped on a forested hillside within a few kilometers of Camp Howze, the US divisional headquarters. The infiltration went smoothly until the afternoon of 19 January, when the team accidently encountered four South Korean woodcutters going about their normal duties. Instead of killing them and continuing on with their mission, they decided to use this opportunity to influence them with propaganda. As the commandos consulted the woodcutters, the 59 Stefans John J. Specialist Fifth Class, United States Army, "Confessions of a Red Agent," Army Digest 23, May 1968, 17. 60 Ibid, p. 19. 61 Mullin, Max, Master Sergeant. "The Blue House Raid: North Korean Commandos Are Hardcore PT Studs | Tactical MilSim Magazine." Tactical Milsim Magazine - The World's Premier Tactical Mil-sim Publication. 13 May 2009. Web. 07 Feb. 2011. <http://www.tacticalmilsim.com/1-military/wheels-up/the-blue-house/>. 28 assassination mission was revealed. The woodcutters were left unharmed with just a threat to keep the mission secret. This proved to be a fatal mistake on their part. The South Koreans went to the police that very night. The local police chief believed them and notified his chain of command, which reacted promptly. Unfortunately, the ROK leadership did not know the exact details surrounding the mission of Team 124, so the police and the military tried to guard all important sites and at the same time search all avenues of approach to Seoul. Even with massive resources employed, the South could not cover everything. The stealthy raiders entered the city in two and three man teams on 21 January. The heightened security and forces in the capital were not expected and it became apparent that their original plan would have to be altered. They took advantage of the additional military security around the Blue House, the ROK Presidential mansion. Their ROK Army uniforms were complete with the correct unit insignia of the local ROK 26th Infantry Division.62 They marched right through the city and by a number of military checkpoints before arriving 800 meters from the Blue House. It was there that the commandos encountered a final police checkpoint that stopped the marching soldiers to question them. The North Koreans fumbled their answers to the questions that the commander of the Chongno police station, Choe Kyu-sik, asked them.63 As Choe pulled his pistol, one of the team members shot him in the chest. Then, all hell broke loose. The security around the Blue House had been increased as a result of the alert and responded quickly to seize the operators and defend the President and his family. The team scattered, abandoned its mission, and began making its way north. While fleeing, two men of the 62 63 Bolger, p. 63. GI Korea. 29 124th were killed there, at the Blue House. ROK soldiers, police, and American troops cooperated in the massive manhunt that followed over the next few days. The elimination of the Blue House Raiders came at a price to both US and ROK forces. Three Americans were killed and three more wounded attempting to capture the escaping infiltrators. ROK casualties totaled sixty-eight killed and sixty-six wounded, mainly army and police, but also about two dozen hapless civilians. Only two of the thirty-one northerners could not be accounted for. They were presumed dead from trying to cross the icy Imjin River back into North Korea.64 Albeit the cost of life was high, the US and ROK forces proved that measures implemented in 1967 to jointly respond in the event of a crisis were successful. The Blue House raid produced many heroes from the woodcutters along the DMZ to Chongno Police Station Commander Choe Kyu-sik. South Korean President Park Chung Hee was furious over the attempted assassination and demanded immediate retribution. The speed, efficiency, and near success of the mission of the North Korean Team amazed President Park as depicted in this telegram from the Embassy of Korea to the US Department of State shortly after the attack: Park said vehemently that we seemed to be more worried about reprisals by ROK Government than we are about getting satisfaction out of North Koreans. He said he respects the UN Command and the wishes of the American ally and he will not undertake unilateral reprisals at this point. He wanted to make it very clear, however, that retaliation will become inevitable if there are any more attacks by the North on South Korea. He said objective of the raid was to kill the President and his family and they had very nearly succeeded. He knows that there are 2,400 additional men in North Korea with similar training and purpose. These men have been taken from North Korean Army and given special training. They are located in six centers and he would like to strike them and eliminate entire unit in one blow. He said he is convinced that this will 64 Bolger, p. 65. 30 have to be done sooner or later or they will come down here again and again, striking at many different targets.65 Intelligence reports were confirmed by the successful interrogation of North Korean Team 124 Lieutenant Kim Shin-Jo, that there were other units conducting arduous training for more assassination attempts on key leaders in the South. Concern that continuous attacks on a greater scale may occur is dictated in the following telegram from the Commander in Chief of United Nations Troops, General Charles Bonesteel, to the Chairman Joint Chiefs of Staff General Earle Wheeler: The Blue House raid on night of 20-21 January confirmed in accurate detail the previous intelligence reported from here that North Koreans had trained and developed "30 man suicide teams." Information obtained from the one agent captured indicates 2400 men in special units had been under arduous training for two years and that later raids may be undertaken by teams of company size [100-120 men]. Credibility of this sole captive was not corroborated from other sources established but he has provided much information and retraced on the ground the infiltration route of his team with confirmatory external evidence.66 President Park and General Bonesteel’s concerns about the North Korean Special Units were quite valid in that this well-trained team of only 31 soldiers managed to cause such havoc and devastation, and nearly achieved its ultimate objective. Kim Il Sung’s desire to kill President Park and trigger domestic unrest would have created a political situation in South Korea favorable to the DPRK’s end result – rebellion of the ROK masses and, eventually, 65 Porter, William, P. Ambassador. "Telegram From the Embassy in Korea to the Department of State." Letter to US Department of State. 24 Jan. 1968. Foreign Relations of the United States 1964-1968, Volume XXIX Korea. State Department, 20 Jan. 2001. Web. 7 Feb. 2011. <http://www.state.gov/www/about_state/history/vol_xxix/o.html>. 66 Bonesteel, Charles, General. "Telegram From the Commander in Chief of the United Nations Command and of United States Forces, Korea (Bonesteel) to the Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff (Wheeler)." Letter to Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff (Earle Wheeler). 24 Jan. 1968. Foreign Relations of the United States 1964-1968, Volume XXIX Korea. State Department, 20 Jan. 2001. Web. 7 Feb. 2011. <http://www.state.gov/www/about_state/history/vol_xxix/o.html>. 31 reunification of the peninsula under the Kim family regime. If not for a little bit of luck with early alert from the woodcutters, the outcome may have been quite different. It is understandable that the need to strike back was critical, with intelligence verifying that company size teams, composed of three to four times the amount of personnel, were capable of carrying out similar missions, but at a greater scale. The United States did not have much time to mull over retaliatory options, though. Two days later another event would occur on the high seas that put this hostile act on the back burner. 32 Chapter II The USS Pueblo and US/ROK Relations “This is what it is like on a typical day. We had an inadvertent intrusion into Cambodia. We lost a B-52 with four H-bombs aboard.67 We had an intelligence ship captured by the North Koreans.” 68 -Secretary of Defense Robert McNamara “May I leave now?” 69 -Chairman of the President’s Intelligence Advisory Board Clark Clifford What could be argued as the most significant event on the Korean Peninsula since 1953 occurred 23 January, 1968, when President Johnson was awoken to learn that one of his Navy’s ships had been seized by North Korea, along with her crew. The USS Pueblo was captured by North Korean naval forces fifteen miles off the eastern coast of Wonsan (a city on the eastern coast of North Korea). The USS Pueblo, a converted AKL (Auxiliary Cargo Light) ship, was outfitted with electronic monitoring equipment to gather signal and electronic intelligence. The transformation designated it as an AGER (Auxiliary General Environmental Research) class vessel that was part of an emerging operation dubbed Operation “Clickbeetle”. There were four of these converted vessels in the Naval inventory whose mission was to intercept critical 67 Hobo 28, a B52G Stratofortress, had an internal fire while airborne over the coast of Greenland. The five person crew tried to contain the fire but were unable to. The pilots were unable to land the aircraft, and the crew ejected over an ice field near Thule Air Base. All but one of the crew survived, but the real crisis was the loss of four nuclear weapons. Recovery of Hobo 28’s missile components and verification that the nuclear weapon’s cores were destroyed upon impact was a major cause of concern to the President. Additionally, the US and Danish governments now had the daunting mission to clean up the radioactive contamination before the sea ice melted in the spring causing radioactive spread through the oceans’ waters. 68 Jones, Thomas W. Notes of the President's Tuesday National Security Lunch on January 23, 1968. White House, Washington DC. North Korea International Documentation Project, 2011. Crisis and Confrontation on the Korean Peninsula: 1968-1969. A Critical Oral History. Web. 01 Apr. 2011. <http://wilsoncenter.org/topics/pubs/NKIDP_Critical_OralHist_textL.pdf>. 69 Ibid 33 information from the United States’ enemies through subverted measures close to the sea boundaries of designated countries.70 The 177 foot USS Pueblo went to sea with only two 50 caliber machine guns mounted on its deck. The lack of large cannons on board disguised the ship as a pseudo-research vessel, but it also made it vulnerable to attack. There was a naval special operations intelligence detachment designated to the Pueblo which also worked in conjunction with the National Security Agency (NSA) in order to gather intelligence. This team had its own operations area that was off-limits to everyone else on board, including the Captain. From the very beginning, the Pueblo seemed doomed. It had been de-commissioned on two previous occasions just to be re-commissioned, and suffered numerous mechanical and structural problems during its tests at sea. According to testimony from the trial examining the incident, many of the crew on the Pueblo were not trained proficiently in their duties, including the two Korean interpreters assigned to the intelligence detachment. Controversy also surrounds the Captain of the ship, Commander Pete Bucher, concerning his leadership abilities and vices. In his autobiography, he writes that he was a naval submarine officer and had a lot of resentment for being “surfaced” by the Navy.71 The Pueblo left Sasebo, Japan on 11 January with the mission to conduct surveillance of North Korean ports of Songjin, Chongjin, Mayangdo, and Wonsan, as well as Soviet naval vessels operating in the Tsushima Straits.72 Starting on 20 January, the Pueblo began being harassed by North Korean vessels while in international waters. International waters begin twelve miles off shore; the Pueblo was fifteen miles from the North 70 Armbrister, p. 20-22. Bucher, Commander Lloyd M. Bucher: My Story. New York: Doubleday &, 1970, p. 2-4. 72 Bramford, James, Body of Secrets: Anatomy of the Ultra-Secret National Security Agency, New York: Anchor Books, 2002, p.251. 71 34 Korean coast.73 23 January, the Pueblo was engaged by two North Korean sub chasers, four torpedo boats, and two MIG fighters. With a max speed of 13.1 knots, the Pueblo attempted to outmaneuver the aggressors, but was far too slow.74 Commander Bucher ordered the crew to destroy classified material on board. As the Captain resisted the demands by the North Koreans to surrender, one of the sub chasers fired its 57mm cannon at the Pueblo, killing Duane Hodges, one of the crew. Commander Bucher ordered the ship to comply with the North Korean order. The Captain, who was wounded, surrendered the Pueblo knowing that it could not withstand further enemy fire, and because he did not want to risk any more injuries to his men. The crew on board tried destroying the massive amounts of classified material and equipment, but there was far too much and not enough time. The possibility of scuttling it all overboard was not an option because the water was only 180 feet deep, Figure 1 - USS Pueblo reported positions and times. Note, the Pueblo was outside the 12 mile boundary and in open seas during time of attack. making it easily accessible by divers.75 As the North Koreans boarded the ship, a massive amount of classified material was seized, which compromised top secret information to the North Koreans and also the Soviets. The USS Pueblo compromised a cryptographic machine (KW-7) used to decode classified naval messages. Simultaneously, John Walker, a convicted spy for the Soviets, was selling top secret key cards that contained extremely sensitive information on naval activity 73 DefenseLink. "Detailed Known Chronology on the Location and Seizure of the Pueblo." Office of the Secretary of Defense and Joint Staff FOIA Requester Service Center, 23 Sept. 2008. Web. 28 Apr. 2011. <http://www.dod.gov/pubs/foi/reading_room/952.pdf>. 74 Michishita, p. 34, 47. 75 Armbrister, p. 44. 35 throughout the world during the height of the Cold War decoded with the KW-7.76 Retired Major General Oleg Kalugin, former deputy chief of the KGB station at the Soviet Embassy in Washington, DC stated: [We] read all cryptographic traffic between the United States Naval Headquarters and the Navy across the world…So by keeping control of the movement of US nuclear submarines, by controlling the coded traffic between the Navy and the units in the open seas, we could really protect our country’s security…I think this was the greatest achievement of Soviet intelligence at the time of the Cold War.77 At the time of capture, no attempt was made to intercept the Pueblo by sea or air. From the initial time of the attack to docking at Wonsan harbor, over eight hours had elapsed. The aircraft carrier USS Enterprise was conducting operations in Vietnam and was too far away to provide support quickly enough. The quick response aircraft available to scramble from South Korea were outfitted with nuclear missiles and were denied authorization for fear of losing a warhead. The next closest air assets were aircraft in Okinawa, Japan. No quick response aircraft existed in Okinawa in 1968 and the time it took for the available planes to be armed and fueled made the attempt futile.78 The USS Pueblo was on its own. The Pueblo’s eighty-two personnel were taken as prisoners to Wonsan, where the Captain and crew underwent 335 days of torture and abuse at the hands of the North Koreans. For fear that the world would react harshly to the illegal seizure of the Pueblo, the North Korean interrogators began a reign of terror to obtain confessions from the crew admitting that they were spying within DPRK waters. The Captain was beaten, and threatened with execution, and was 76 Lerner, Mitchell B. The Pueblo Incident A Spy Ship and the Failure of American Foreign Policy (Modern War Studies). New York: University of Kansas, 2003, p. 210. 77 Bramford, p. 277. 78 Armbrister, p. 242-243. 36 told his crew would be executed if he did not confess.79 The crew were forced to write letters back home speaking of the humane treatment they were receiving at the hands of the North Koreans. For the South Koreans, the perception existed that the United States reacted to the seizure of the USS Pueblo with a greater concern than to the Blue House Raid. A telegram from the Commander in Chief of the United Nations Command and of United States Forces, Korea (General Bonesteel) to the Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff (General Wheeler) on 27 January, 1968 discusses this perception that those in Korea had between the two incidents: There is an expression of strong feeling at all levels of the Republic, that the US at our governmental level had taken no adequately drastic action following attempt attack on President and Blue House. However, with the seizure of the Pueblo we had reacted drastically. They all expressed views along this line, making plain their object was not obstructive but that they were speaking as real friends of the US in whom they have great faith and trust. They reiterated nevertheless that actions taken by US in and from Korea should stress point that we view attack on Blue House--"The national symbol of the republic"--equally as important as Pueblo.80 South Korean President Park was furious with the United States because of its unwillingness to take revenge on the North after the DPRK attempted to assassinate him. Many on the peninsula began questioning the merits of the alliance between the US and South Koreans. US Secretary of State Dean Rusk shared his annoyance with South Korea in a telegram sent on 6 February, 1968 to Ambassador William Porter: 79 Bucher, Commander Lloyd M. Bucher: My Story. New York: Doubleday &, 1970, p. 227. Bonesteel, Charles, General. "Telegram From the Commander in Chief of the United Nations Command and of United States Forces, Korea (Bonesteel) to the Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff (Wheeler)." Letter to Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff (Earle Wheeler). 27 Jan. 1968. Foreign Relations of the United States 1964-1968, Volume XXIX Korea. State Department, 20 Jan. 2001. Web. 22 Feb. 2011. <http://www.state.gov/www/about_state/history/vol_xxix/o.html>. 80 37 As one who has been intimately involved with Korea since the drafting of Japanese surrender terms, I am deeply disturbed by the present atmosphere of our relations. I know that we are dealing with an especially sensitive people, sometimes called the "Irish of the Far East." I also am aware of other moments of tension even worse than the one we have today, particularly when I think back to the Syngman Rhee period. I think I understand fully the genuine concerns of the South Koreans even though I get impatient about their super sensitivity. The one thing which is not tolerable back here is their suspicion about our basic motives and purposes. We have invested over 33,000 battle deaths, 20,000 non-battle deaths, and over 100,000 wounded in the security of an independent ROK. We have maintained large forces in that country for 17 years. We have invested over six billion dollars (almost half the total Marshall Plan) in economic and military assistance. We have recently massively reinforced our air power in Korea and the immediate adjoining areas. We have carried the banner for Korea in the UN over and over again. You should find ways to make it clear that Korean suspicion against this record is simply incomprehensible to the American people. The danger is that it will be deeply resented back here with potentially disastrous results for both countries.81 President Johnson’s continuous crisis management had him focused on two main events by the end of January: the Tet Offensive in Vietnam and the USS Pueblo in Korea. South Korean President Park wanted revenge on the North Koreans for their assassination attempt on him, but President Johnson refused to act. The US and ROK bilateral alliance was shaken even more when President Johnson ordered the Commander of US forces in Korea, General Bonesteel, to negotiate directly with the DPRK for a diplomatic release of the prisoners. The South Korean government feared that the US would attempt secret negotiations at locations other than Panmunjom. In order to prevent that from occurring, President Park hinted at removing forces from operational control of the Commander-in-Chief of the United Nations Command 81 Rusk, Dean, Secretary of State. "Telegram From the Department of State to the Embassy in Korea." Letter to ROK Ambassador Porter. 06 Feb. 1968. Foreign Relations of the United States 1964-1968, Volume XXIX Korea. State Department, 20 Jan. 2001. Web. 22 Feb. 2011. http://www.state.gov/www/about_state/history/vol_xxix/o.html>. 38 (General Bonesteel), and withdrawing its troops from Vietnam.82 In a telegram to the Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff (Wheeler), Bonesteel expressed: The ROK’s have strong feelings at all levels of the republic, that the US at our governmental level had taken no adequately drastic action following the attempted attack on President and Blue House. However, during the seizure of the Pueblo we had reacted drastically. They all expressed views along this line, making plain their object was not obstructive but that they were speaking as real friends of the US in whom they have great faith and trust. They reiterated nevertheless that actions taken by US in and from Korea should stress point that we view attack on Blue House-- "The national symbol of the republic"--equally as important as Pueblo. They said mere oral protestation to this effect would not correct Korean opinion but that we should take immediate, tangible steps.83 President Park refrained from retaliating militarily against the North, but to “save face,” he urged the US to take steps which were more than just words. The rest of his government, on the other hand, was utilizing the events to try and spur public sentiment. Many ROK leaders urged Park to “go North” with or without US military support. ROK generals even went so far as to try and find loopholes in the rules of engagement in order to have a hot pursuit all the way to the Yalu River as soon as another engagement occurred near the DMZ.84 This is evident in Bonesteel’s telegram to the Commander in Chief of the Pacific, Admiral Ulysses Sharp: I have warned against keeping Korean officials, other than Park, unaware of U.S. intentions toward the crises in Korea. He also reported having obliquely reminded the South Koreans that the U.S. was not obligated to defend the ROK, should the latter deliberately provoke war. Bonesteel described the atmosphere in South Korea as an "orgy of emotionalism," in part deliberately incited by the government. He noted that a situation was rapidly developing "which NK commies could exploit with explosive results. If they should make one or two big raids 82 Telegram from the Embassy in Korea to Department of State, Seoul, 28 January, 1968, US Department of State, Foreign Relations of the United States, 1964-1968, Korea, Washington DC: US Government Printing Office, 2000, p. 541. 83 Bonesteel, Charles, General. "Telegram From the Commander in Chief of the United Nations Command and of United States Forces, Korea (Bonesteel) to the Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff (Wheeler).” 27 Jan. 1968. Foreign Relations of the United States 1964-1968, Volume XXIX Korea. State Department, 20 Jan. 2001. Web. 7 Feb. 2011. 84 Bolger, p.70. 39 with some success, it is highly probable ROKs would retaliate instantly and that would really put the fat in the fire." 85 The South Korean leadership did not grasp that the US was in Korea for the ROK’s defense, as a deterrent against North Korea, and not as additional combat forces for an invasion north. With America’s deep involvement in the Vietnam War, Washington could not lose support from the ROK and the two dedicated divisions it had committed to the fight there. If a military operation sparked war on the Korean Peninsula, South Korean forces would have been severely hampered with a loss of almost 20% of their best fighting men committed elsewhere.86 President Park brilliantly utilized the deployed ROK forces as leverage when dealing with the United States. For South Korea, the presence of its troops in Vietnam actually bolstered its economy even more. In 1966, revenues from the war made up 40 percent of South Korea’s foreign exchange earnings, making Vietnam the country’s first overseas profit center.87 For the United States, South Korea was its largest ally in regards to contributing combat troops to the fight in Vietnam. In addition, the troops deployed from South Korea were extremely successful with counter-guerilla operations against the Vietcong. The utilization of ROK troops enabled the US to save American men from deploying to, and dying in, Indochina. President Johnson was charged with the task to “save face” with his Asian allies, while not committing the US to another sustained conflict in Asia. In a top secret report of a meeting 85 Bonesteel, Charles, General. "Telegram From the Commander in Chief of the United Nations Command and of United States Forces, Korea (Bonesteel) to the Commander in Chief Pacific (Sharp)." 07 Feb. 1968. Foreign Relations of the United States 1964-1968, Volume XXIX Korea. State Department, 20 Jan. 2001. Web. 22 Mar. 2011. <http://www.state.gov/www/about_state/history/vol_xxix/o.html>. 86 Armbrister, p. 245. 87 Oberdorfer, Don. The Two Koreas: A Contemporary History. New York: Basic, 2001, p. 35. 40 which occurred on 29 January, 1968, President Johnson’s “Wise Men” laid out eleven different courses of action in response to the seizure of the USS Pueblo: 1) Advising Soviets of actual or possible military moves. It is agreed the US should not proceed with an informal contact in Moscow, but might consider in the future the use of the hot line with the proviso about the press. In general, it was judged, however, that communications with the USSR were in pretty good shape and should be sustained during this incident. 2) The conduct of airborne reconnaissance. It was agreed that for the next several days no reconnaissance of North Korea should be conducted. Risk of North Korean interdiction of US aircraft ruled this option out. 3) Sail USS Banner into area where Pueblo was seized. For the time being it was felt unwise to put the Banner (sister ship of Pueblo) on station. When the incident has been settled, it was agreed the US would wish to assert its rights in international waters off Wonsan Bay. Depending on the situation at that time, the US might try to assert its rights in that area via an armed vessel—perhaps a destroyer—rather than via a communications monitoring ship like the USS Banner. 4) Action to recover crypto material jettisoned from the Pueblo. It was agreed that the recovery of the crypto material jettisoned from the Pueblo was an almost impossible task which would put no significant pressure on the North Koreans. Therefore, it should not be undertaken. 5) Mine Wonsan Harbor. The proposal presented involved 17 sorties dropping 83 mines. The operation would have to be repeated as necessary to insure full denial of harbor use. It was agreed that the impact of this operation on the North Korean economy and on North Korean military capabilities would be minor. The prospects of recovery of the Pueblo and the crew might be impeded. Air combat over the area would be likely; and the risk of escalation would increase if mining were maintained over a protracted period. Enemy air defense would also create more POW’s for downed aircraft. 6) Seize North Korean vessels. Although intelligence does not yet give us a firm basis for seizing North Korean vessels on the high seas, it was pointed out that should the men and the ship— or even the ship alone—not be returned, the seizure of North Korean vessels from the high seas was a punishment that fitted the crime; that is, the North Koreans violated the rules governing behavior in international waters and could be legitimately denied access to international waters. 7) Selected air strikes on North Korea. It was agreed that such strikes would be an act of retaliation: large forces required for success might give the appearance of large-scale hostilities initiated by the US: it would be unpopular internationally; and would diminish the prospects for early release of the Pueblo and its crew. 41 8) Raid across the DMZ. As with respect to number 7, such punitive operations were judged to be risky, capable of leading to unsought sustained hostilities, and counter-productive with respect to the return of Pueblo and its crew. 9) Naval blockade of Wonsan. The military and economic effects would be limited: the risks of escalation would be high; once undertaken, the US would be committed for an indefinite period to inconclusive, politically awkward, and potentially escalatory operations. 10) Free World economic pressures on North Korea. The Free World’s trade with North Korea is limited. And the impact of increased controls of trade and shipping with the Free World would, therefore, be small. With respect to a total embargo on trade with North Korea, the US would certainly meet important opposition from France, the United Kingdom, Japan, and West Germany. China and the Soviet Union would continue to provide aid and assistance. Taken together, the small scale of the inconvenience involved and the political and diplomatic difficulties within the Free World make this action unattractive. 11) US bombing practice in South Korea. This suggestion, from a member of the group, was examined as an additional contribution to a sense of seriousness about the US military buildup in the area. Although it was thought that, in general, the present buildup offered a satisfactory background for diplomacy, it was agreed that the technical possibility of this line of action should be staffed out and then the President would take a further look at it.88 The President mulled over his options with Secretary of State Dean Rusk and concluded that any military option had the possibility of escalating the crisis into a larger scale sustained conflict. In addition to having troops deployed in Vietnam, America also had a large presence in Western Europe and a contingent in Taiwan. A sustained conflict elsewhere in the world would cripple the United States’ military, particularly with its combat troops of over half a million already embroiled with a conflict in Vietnam. In the same report, the group concluded that there were three universal objectives during the Pueblo: 1) Get the men of the Pueblo and, if possible, the ship itself returned. 88 Rostow, Walt W. Report of Meeting of Advisory Group, January 29 1968. Rep. Washington DC: North Korea International Documentation Project, 2011. Crisis and Confrontation on the Korean Peninsula: 1968-1969. A Critical Oral History. Web. 29 Mar. 2011. <http://wilsoncenter.org/topics/pubs/NKIDP_Critical_OralHist_textL.pdf>. 42 2) Keep the confidence of the South Koreans and, especially, their willingness to provide an increment of force in South Vietnam. 3) Avoid a second front in Asia.89 US Deputy Secretary of Defense Cyrus Vance was dispatched to Seoul by President Johnson in order to mend relations with President Park. When Vance arrived, he described President Park as “highly emotional, volatile, frustrated and introspective, traits compounded by effects of his heavy drinking. The raid on the Blue House had unfortunate psychological effects on him. He felt that both he and his country had lost face, and feared for his own safety and that of his family.”90 President Park’s concerns were quite valid, and he shared his concern with Vance about the ease of penetration within the US defended sector of the DMZ. Vance promised a counter-infiltration package to the ROK Government (ROKG) in return for the following agreements: 1. The ROKG will take no independent military actions against North Korea in response to the Blue House Raid. 2. The ROKG will dampen down public agitation for retaliatory actions. 3. The ROKG will consent to US private bilateral discussions with the North Koreans of the Pueblo issue in order that the crew and ship will be promptly released. (Multi-lateral negotiations, including the ROKG, would have drawn them out).91 President Park agreed with the conditions, but also wanted assurance that the US would keep him informed of the progress of the negotiations. Johnson, good to Vance’s word, pacified 89 Ibid. Vance, Cyrus, Deputy Secretary of Defense. "Memorandum From Cyrus R. Vance to President Johnson," 20 Feb. 1968. Foreign Relations of the United States 1964-1968, Volume XXIX Korea. State Department, 20 Jan. 2001. Web. 15 Jun. 2011. http://www.state.gov/www/about_state/history/vol_xxix/r.html>. 91 Ibid. 90 43 President Park by increasing military aid to South Korea while at the same time utilizing a US diplomatic approach for release of the prisoners with negotiations in Panmunjom. In a 7 February, 1968 telegram from President Johnson to President Park, Johnson pledges additional military aid obligated to the ROK: Unlike the Pueblo problem, for which we must have an immediate solution, the security of the ROK against attack is a continuing problem. It will still exist after the Pueblo and its crew have been released. It will not be solved by angry words uttered in the Military Armistice Commission, or by negotiations. It will require tangible and continuing measures to strengthen the ROK militarily. Cyrus Vance already has discussed with you our willingness to provide certain equipment to ROK forces in Korea in conjunction with the deployment to Viet-Nam of additional ROK forces. The equipment includes. 1. A $32 million counterinfiltration `package' which was jointly devised by your Chiefs of Staff and General Bonesteel. Certain key items in this counterinfiltration package have been authorized for air delivery and many of these items will arrive in Korea within the next 15 days. 2. Two additional destroyers for the ROK Navy, one of which will come from the active US Navy fleet. This destroyer is now undergoing overhaul, and will be delivered to the ROK Navy no later than April 30. The other is being activated from the US Navy reserve fleet and will be delivered after overhaul in 12 months or less. 3. A self-propelled 8 in. Howitzer artillery battalion. 4. A company of 12 UH-1-D helicopters. In order to provide new programs of help, I have decided to increase military assistance to your forces in the current fiscal year by an additional $100 million. This further amount will fund other items of equipment which should leave no doubt either in the minds of your people or in those of the North Koreans of our determination to see that you are in an even stronger position to withstand and repel further aggressive acts they might contemplate92. 92 Johnson, Lyndon, US President. "Telegram From the Department of State to the Embassy in Korea." Letter to Park, Chung Hee, ROK President. 07 Feb. 1968. Foreign Relations of the United States 1964-1968, Volume XXIX Korea. State Department, 20 Jan. 2001. Web. 29 Mar. 2011. http://www.state.gov/www/about_state/history/vol_xxix/o.html>. 44 This aid package to the ROK bolstered its military forces even more while pacifying President Park’s intent on striking back militarily in response to the Blue House Raid. With international factors weighing in on his decision making, President Johnson opted to negotiate with the North Koreans for the release of the prisoners. Besides conducting a more diplomatic approach to this event, President Johnson did execute a major psychological one as well. Throughout the course of the Vietnam War, the President had refrained from calling up the reserves.93 During the Pueblo Crisis, he activated fourteen Air National Guard units, eight Air Force Reserve units, and six Navy Reserve units. In total, 14,487 troops were activated back to active duty status. 94 The call-up was the largest since the Berlin crisis of 1961. Press Secretary George Christian hinted to the press: “That this might just be the beginning, the Army and Marine reservists may be summoned as well.”95 The decision of the President to call up the reserves, an act that did not even occur at the beginning of the Vietnam War, enabled the US to get the DPRK to the negotiating table. Twenty-seven rounds of negotiations between US Army Major General Gilbert Woodward and North Korean Major General Pak Chung Kuk occurred at the DMZ.96 The US demanded release of the prisoners while North Korea demanded a written apology stating America must admit that the Pueblo had entered North Korean waters, apologize for this intrusion, and assure the DPRK that this would never happen again. Dean Rusk wrote a telegram to the US Embassy in Seoul on December 11th 1968, stating: With the approach of Christmas, combined with change of Administration here shortly thereafter, offers us opportunity to press North Koreans for release of Pueblo crew. North 93 Correll, John T. "Air Force Magazine." Origins of Total Force Feb. 2011: p. 94. Armbrister, p. 262. 95 Ibid. 96 Michishita, p. 43. 94 45 Koreans are not likely to get more from President-elect Nixon than from President Johnson. We hope also that recent visit of CVA Hancock (US Navy aircraft carrier) will have reminded them that winding-down of Viet-Nam war could liberate resources to improve US-ROK military posture and that they would be well advised to reduce sources of tension by releasing Pueblo crew.97 Securing the release of the prisoners was vital to both parties involved. The US wanted to retrieve the crew before Christmas, after eleven months of captivity. For the DPRK, reaching an agreement before President Nixon took office was vital. Since the start of negotiations, the DPRK knew that the Johnson administration would not risk resumption of hostilities with a military strike on the North. They did not know what President-elect Nixon would carry out in order secure the release of prisoners, after he took office on 20 January, 1969. On 17 December, 1968, an agreement was made and a written apology presented by the US to secure the release of the prisoners in time for Christmas. On 23 December, 1968, the crew was taken by buses to the DMZ and ordered to walk south across the "Bridge of No Return." Exactly eleven months after being taken prisoner, the Captain led the long line of crewmen, followed at the end by the Executive Officer, Lieutenant Ed Murphy, the last man across the bridge. The U.S. then verbally retracted the ransom admission, apology, and assurance.98 Pyongyang seized the opportunity to claim a propaganda victory. The US’ ability to negotiate rather than use coercive diplomacy may have fended of resumption of hostilities on the peninsula. China had recently signed the Treaty of Friendship, Co-operation and Mutual Assistance between the People's Republic of China and the Democratic People's Republic of Korea on 11 July, 1967. Chou En-lai and Kim Il Sung had 97 Rusk, Dean. "Telegram From the Department of State to the Embassy in Korea." Instructions for Twenty-Sixth Meeting,” 11 Dec. 1968. Foreign Relations of the United States 1964-1968, Volume XXIX Korea. State Department, 20 Jan. 2001. Web. 16 jun. 2011, http://www.state.gov/www/about_state/history/vol_xxix/zh.html. 98 USS Pueblo. Web. 13 Dec. 2010. <http://www.usspueblo.org/>. 46 both signed the treaty and were in agreement with the prescribed articles. Kim Il Sung relied on the more beneficial aspects of the treaty affirming “the People's Republic of China and the DPRK would jointly guard the security of the two peoples, and to safeguard and consolidate the peace of Asia and the world.”99 This was a safety net whereby China pledged to immediately render military and other assistance to its ally in the event of outside attack. Conventional military troops, coupled with China’s emergence as a nuclear power, greatly deterred the US with its military decisions. With the assistance provided to the DPRK by China during the Korean War, North Korea felt secure in the event of an American military response. North Korea’s other safety net was the Soviet Union. Nuclear weapons and the constant threat of mutually assured destruction (MAD) between the two powers were paramount factors in decision making during this period. Kim Il Sung had reassurance on 31 January, 1968 when his charge d’affaires in Moscow, Kang Ch’ol-gun, met with Soviet Foreign Minister Andrei Gromyko in Moscow. Kang expressed his hope that “the Soviet Government will support the position of the DPRK government in connection with the capture of the American ship.” Gromyko replied that: The Soviet Union has already taken a series of measures in support of the Korean friends. When approached by the Americans, the Soviet Union firmly declared that any pressure on the DPRK on the part of the USA is unacceptable. The Soviet representative in the [UN] Security Council spoke out resolutely in support of the position of the DPRK Government. The Soviet ambassador in Pyongyang informed comrade Kim Il Sung about all measures that had been taken.100 99 Max, B. United States. Chinese Communism Subject Archive. Treaty of Friendship, Co-operation and Mutual Assistance. Cong. Doc. 28th ed. Vol. 4. Peking: Peking Review, 1967, 5. 100 Radchenko, Sergey. DPRK Capture of the American Spy Ship and Support by the Soviet Union. Record of Conversation between Soviet Foreign Minister Andrei Gromyko and North Korean Charge D’Affaires Kang Ch’olgun, USSR, Moscow. Vol. 102. Moscow: Arkhiv Vneshnei Politiki Rossiiskoi Federatsii, 31 Jan, 1968, Cold War International History Project, Web. 29 Mar. 2011. http://www.wilsoncenter.org/. 47 Soon after the seizure of the Pueblo, the DPRK confirmed that it had the military support it needed from its Communist brothers in the likelihood of an attack to recover the ship. Like Washington’s agreement with Seoul, the treaty that existed between Moscow and Pyongyang was defensive in nature. Horst Brie, an East German ambassador to North Korea, concluded: North Korea would never decide on its own to attack South Korea or the Americans by military force. We knew that they were able to fight a defensive war but not an offensive war without the help from outside. They were not capable of fighting a war exceeding two to three months on their own. We never believed in the threat of a new Korean War beginning over the actions of North Korea.101 If this assumption is true, then it explains why the North carried out these actions against the ROK and the US. Kim Il Sung knew well that China and the USSR would not come to his aid if he initiated a general war on the peninsula. However, he felt certain that his Communist brothers would support him if on the defensive from a joint US/ROK attack. The Korean War was still fresh in the minds of the DPRK, when Chinese “volunteers” came to the defense of North Korea. It was assumed that the same support would be rendered again. If Kim Il Sung was able to have his country attacked, even if he provoked it, then the People’s Republic of China (PRC) and USSR would be obligated to assist against capitalist aggression. After a few months of North Korean propaganda coupled with stalled negotiations and walk-outs, it became evident that the Soviet Union was becoming impatient with its Korean comrades. General Secretary of the Communist Party of the Soviet Union Leonid Brezhnev, at the April 1968 Plenum of Central Committee of the Communist Party of the Soviet Union (CPSU), in a speech stated: 101 Ostermann and Person, p. 21. 48 We are insistently advising the Korean comrades, with whom we maintained systematic contact throughout this period, to show reserve, not to give the Americans an excuse to widen provocations, to settle the (Pueblo) incident by political means. When it became clear to the entire world that the attempts of the USA to make the DPRK retreat before blackmail and military threats had failed, when the government of the USA was forced to conduct talks with the representatives of the DPRK in Panmunjom regarding Pueblo, we expressed an opinion to the Korean leadership that now, without any harm and even with political advantage for the DPRK, one could finish this affair by disgraceful deportation of the crew of the USA spy vessel from the territory of North Korea. But the Korean comrades maintained a fairly extreme position and did not show any inclination towards settling the incident. DPRK propaganda took on a fairly militant character, the population was told that a war could begin any day, that the military forces of the DPRK are “ready to smash American imperialism.” In effect, a full mobilization was declared in the country; life, especially in the cities, was changed in a military fashion; there began an evacuation of the population, administrative institutions, industries, and factories of Pyongyang.102 It becomes evident during the prolonging of negotiations that the Soviet Union had no desire to sponsor another war on the peninsula. North Korea was losing support from its Communist brothers and if they continued to stall any longer, they may lose them entirely. The US aversion to an escalation of hostilities that could draw them into another war in Asia, or worse yet, a war with the potential to become nuclear, facilitated the eventual release of the prisoners. The US accomplished its three primary objectives of securing the release of the men of the Pueblo, keeping the confidence of the South Koreans and their willingness to provide an increment of force in South Vietnam, and avoiding a second front in Asia. For the Communists, Moscow and China’s subtle approach to reminding Kim Il Sung that support would be rendered only in the event of Capitalist aggression kept the DPRK leader restrained. 102 Radchenko, Sergey. “On the Current Problems of the International Situation and on the Struggle of the CPSU for the Unity of the International Communist Movement.” Excerpt from a speech by Leonid Brezhnev at the April 9, 1968 CC CPSU Plenum, Moscow. Cold War International History Project, 20 Jan. 2001. Web. 29 Mar. 2011. http://www.wilsoncenter.org/. 49 ROK and DPRK military defenses were evenly matched along the DMZ. Both sides fortified their respective boundaries with equipment and personnel, and it became a stalemate. A short decisive war was not possible should the resumption of hostilities resume.103 If either side carried out a ground, naval, or air strike, then the other would respond with equal or greater force. Samuel Berger, Director of the Korean Task Force, elaborates on why escalation would have been pointless: The temptation to strike back in reprisal in understandable, but it will produce no decisive outcome. The danger in retaliatory or punitive air attacks against North Korea is that they would invite air attacks against the South. If Pyongyang or other North Korean sites are hit, what is to prevent an attack against Seoul or some other site? Action and counter-action could lead to resumed fighting along the DMZ, but both sides are too strong to move successfully against each other in this area. The end result would be to call off the reprisal policy, after physical damage had been done to both sides and a period of fighting within the DMZ with no decisive result (it would not end infiltration). None of these outcomes is in the South Koreans or our (US) best interests’.104 Narushige Michishita identifies four possible reasons as to why the DPRK seized the Pueblo. First, it hampered US intelligence gathering operations. After Pueblo, “Operation Clickbeetle” was suspended, and additional measures were implemented to provide security during intelligence gathering operations. Second, it diverted resources away from Vietnam. North Korea provided a few pilots to aid Hanoi, but not to the extent that the ROK deployed thousands of ground troops. The Pueblo incident was a major distraction for Washington, which may have diverted attention away from North Vietnam as its forces prepared for the Tet Offensive a week later. Third was the impact it had on US and ROK relations. Executing the Blue House Raid and capturing the USS Pueblo, only days apart from one another, did not give 103 Michishita, p.23. Telegram from the Department of State to the Embassy in Korea, Washington DC, February 12, 1968, US Department of State, Foreign Relations of the United States, 1964-1968, vol. 29, part 21, Korea, Washington DC: US Government Printing Office, 2000, p. 372. 104 50 Washington a chance to react in response to the raid. As discussed earlier, priority was given to rescue the crew of the ship, giving a perception to the ROKG that President Park and ROK interests were not as important to the US, temporarily straining relations. Finally, it defended Kim Il Sung’s position in the Party. According to the Korean Central Intelligence Agency, Kim Il Sung wanted to sink the USS Pueblo, but his military leaders opined against it.105 Kim Il Sung later flexed his authority within the Party by purging those military leaders, and a year later, had his military shoot-down a Naval EC-121 intelligence gathering plane, coincidentally on his birthday. During the seizure of the USS Pueblo, North and South Korea’s military was almost evenly matched. With the influx of military aid that it received from the Soviet Union the years prior, coupled with treaties from Moscow and Peking for support if attacked, Kim Il Sung was in a position to attempt military reunification should the situation present itself. In January 1968, Kim Il Sung attempted a two-prong attempt at reunification. First with ROK domestic unrest, by the assassination of President Park, which he felt would create public dissent for the ROKG, opening the country up to revolution. Second, with a military attack on the DPRK by US and ROK military forces, thereby opening the door for the resumption of hostilities on the peninsula. Kim Il Sung realized the US was in no position to sustain a two-front war. If Moscow and Peking did honor their treaties, the DPRK would have been a formidable foe for the United Nations Command. Despite the failed outcome of reunification, the propaganda victory that resulted from the USS Pueblo gave Kim Il Sung the support he desired, and enabled him to enhance his authority within his country. Although Kim was unsuccessful at both attempts for 105 Michishita, p. 48-51. 51 reunification, his influence grew among the North Korean masses and the Party, thus preserving and expanding the power of the Kim family regime within the DPRK. If any country truly benefited from the events of the January 1968, it was the ROK. Increased US military aid to the ROK provided additional security and equipped it with more modern military technology. Ambassador Yoon Ha-Jung, founding director of the People’s Unification Party, notes that “Kim Il Sung really helped us. American assistance rebuilt our armed force into a modern armed force creating a balance with North Korea. Perhaps our military surpassed North Korea’s at that time.”106 In reality, none of Korea’s allies supported military action for the release of the prisoners, or the Koreans’ overarching goal which was reunification of the peninsula. Only Korean leadership on both sides of the DMZ supported the killing of Koreans. Today, the USS Pueblo is the only vessel listed on the Naval Registry as “captured.” It is currently moored on the Taedong River in the heart of the capital as a symbol of “Imperialist aggression.” 106 Ostermann and Person, p. 59. 52 Chapter III Spring 1969 and Deep Sea 129 Soon after taking office, President Nixon announced his plan for Vietnamization in order to begin the withdrawal of US troops from Indochina and empower the South Vietnamese to control their own country without US involvement. At the time Nixon took over, US troops in Indochina were at their peak with 536,100.107 He made it clear that US military involvement in Asia would be reduced. During a visit to Guam, Nixon declared, “We must avoid that kind of policy that will make countries in Asia so dependent on us that we are dragged into conflicts such as the one in Vietnam. There will be no more Vietnams; we will help combat future Communist insurgencies, but we will not fight the war for them.”108 This “Nixon Doctrine” emphasized that internal subversion should not mean more to the United States than to the threatened country itself. The United States would provide those countries, facing Communist subversion, military assistance (particularly in Asia), but it would not contribute American personnel. Although Nixon and Kissinger meant the doctrine as an assurance of continued American involvement in Asia, many governments, including the ROK, inferred it as a notice that the US would be pulling out.109 DMZ incidents dropped drastically in the beginning of 1969 in comparison to the years prior – most notably in 1968 when 236 firefights were recorded and 1,245 DPRK agents were seized (see Table I). Kim Il Sung may have utilized the US election year in 1968 to try and leverage American public opinion in order to force Washington to extricate troops from South 107 Turley, p.xxviii. Dallek, Robert. Nixon and Kissinger: Partners in Power. New York: HarperCollins Pub., 2007, p .144. 109 Xia, p. 142. 108 53 Korea. With over half a million US personnel in Vietnam and no end in sight, coupled with the plunge of public opinion for US involvement in Asia, and the effects of the USS Pueblo still fresh on American minds, Kim Il Sung tried step up attacks to end US involvement in Korea. The incidents of 1968 in Korea did not warrant as much attention as those occurring in Vietnam. With a new US President, Kim Il Sung needed an event to bring North Korea to the spotlight again in order to get out of the big shadow of the American war in Vietnam. Kim Il Sung’s interpretation of the Nixon Doctrine was that a decreasing US presence in Asia was on the horizon. By initiating another crisis on the peninsula, which would not escalate to general war, North Korea may be able to achieve its objective of ridding the peninsula of the US presence. The downing of Deep Sea 129 on 15 April, 1969, brought North Korea back to the “crisis table” and gave Nixon his first chance at dealing with Pyongyang as President. In March 1969 the US and ROK were preparing for a war-game of an unprecedented scale dubbed “Operation Focus Retina.” More than 7,000 paratroopers (4,500 of which were US forces based in Korea) participated in this exhibition of allied power.110 In addition to the paratroopers, allied fighter jets and ROK Special Forces participated in the training exercise. For Kim Il Sung and the DPRK, this exercise mimicked a dry run for a joint invasion of the North by US and ROK forces. “Focus Retina” warranted some type of response in the minds of the DPRK leadership. On 15 April, Kim Il Sung’s fifty-seventh birthday, two Korean People's Air Force MiG interceptors shot down a US Navy EC-121M Constellation, codenamed Deep Sea 129, ninety-five miles off the east coast of the DPRK.111 Deep Sea 129 was conducting a mission over the Sea of Japan, gathering signal intelligence from North Korea, 110 111 Bolger, p. 99. Ibid, p. 102. 54 China, and the USSR. The reconnaissance plane left its naval air station in Atsugi, Japan with 31 personnel on board. The officer in charge, LCDR Overstreet, had orders which prohibited him from approaching closer than 50 nautical miles of the North Korean coast.112 This plane had flown the route and orbit for two years, and the mission had been graded as being of "minimal risk." During the first three months of 1969 nearly 200 similar missions had been flown by both Navy and U.S. Air Force reconnaissance aircraft off North Korea's east coast, without incident.113 For all intents and purposes this mission was routine. Approximately six hours after take-off radars in Osan, South Korea, identified two North Korean MiG-17s approaching Deep Sea 129’s position. Shortly after, the reconnaissance plane “dropped off” the radar (which was normal protocol when trying to avoid radar coverage from inbound attack aircraft). After an hour with no response from anyone in the plane, it became apparent that the DPRK had intercepted and shot down the plane. A massive search and rescue operation went underway, with assistance from the Soviet Union, and debris and wreckage from the aircraft were located. Of the 31 personnel on board Deep Sea 129, only two bodies were ever recovered.114 Immediately after the shoot down, three proposed motives were developed by South Korean Ambassador William Porter. In a telegram sent on 16 April, 1969 to the Department of State, Porter states: Reports of US war-weariness over Vietnam and of a growing uneasiness about out military wisdom may have led to the NK leadership to think such an act would encourage the US public to 112 Homan, Richard. "Lost Plane a Pueblo-Type Spy." The Washington Post 16 Apr. 1969. Print. Bermudez, Joseph S. North Korean Special Forces. Annapolis, MD: Naval Institute, 1998, p. 239. 114 US Naval Institute - Naval History and Heritage Command. "15 April 1969: Deep Sea 129 Shootdown." Naval History. 15 Apr. 2010. Web. 28 Apr. 2011. <http://www.navalhistory.org/2010/04/15/15-april-1969-deep-sea-129shootdown/>. 113 55 wash their hand of the Korean problem. They may feel that the Pueblo hearings have done much to expedite this sentiment and hope yesterday’s straw will prove to be the final one. The world conference of Communist Parties is due soon. NK relations with the Soviets have grown warmer after a brief chill following Pueblo. However, there is no doubt the Chinese are the more compatible ideological bedfellows. At this point in time with a growing and militant ROK/US presence in the South, the specter of a deep and perhaps irrevocable Sino/Soviet split must be particularly foreboding. If a threat to NK could stall a final split its provocation might be worthwhile. A claimed intruder belonging to the mightiest Air Force in the world was shot down is a propaganda triumph not to be disparaged, especially when achieved in close conjunction with the Leader’s birthday.115 These proposals as to why the EC-121 was downed could be interrelated. Kim Il Sung’s desire for the departure of US troops may have been heightened. For years the US had been increasing aid, military personnel, and equipping the ROK’s with better technology to counter the increasing North Korean threat. It was Vietnamization in Korea without the US troop withdrawals. Pyongyang possibly attempted to initiate an event of such magnitude that it would shape US public opinion to pull out of South Korea entirely. It makes sense that Kim Il Sung’s aspiration for a united Communist Korea would become easier if the US presence in South Korea disappears. If another surprise attack was launched to reunify the peninsula, as long as US troops were stationed in the ROK, there is little doubt that the US would not intervene with whatever military assets available (even if that meant diverting resources from elsewhere). Deep Sea 129 could have been the “straw that broke the camel’s back.” 115 Porter, William, P. Ambassador. “Telegram from the Embassy in Korea to the Department of State.” Letter to US Department of State. 16 Apr. 1969. Rep. Washington DC: North Korea International Documentation Project, 2011. Crisis and Confrontation on the Korean Peninsula: 1968-1969. A Critical Oral History. Web. 26 Apr. 2011. <http://wilsoncenter.org/topics/pubs/NKIDP_Critical_OralHist_textL.pdf>. 56 Porter’s reference to the Sino-Soviet conflict is relevant in regards to the border clashes that had occurred the month prior. Much like Hanoi, Pyongyang was able to obtain military aid from both Moscow and Beijing. With the split occurring, it was only a matter of time before the Communist giants were going to make Pyongyang choose a side. If North Korea was able to initiate an offensive US response, the “bigger brothers” may put their differences aside in order to come to their aid, as had happened in Vietnam. Finally, propaganda was key to Kim Il Sung’s cult of personality. To quote Ambassador Porter: “For the North Koreans, the US giant can be brought down by the concerted attacks of the revolutionary Lilliputians; inconclusive military retaliation only enhances the desired image.”116 The USS Pueblo and Blue House Raid were prime examples of the lack of a direct military response to North Korean aggression. The mere perception of the North’s ability to strike at the United States and the ROK, with no direct military response, gave an almost “David and Goliath” mentality to the DPRK masses. Additionally, it spurred the South’s dissent over the US presence in the ROK, for those that oppose it, and destroyed the credibility of American military commitments in East Asia. If the US won’t fight back when their own personnel and equipment are destroyed, why would they do so for the South Koreans? If the US was going to “save face” in Asia, a military response was critical. Nixon was faced with a tough decision. ROK military capabilities had drastically improved since the Korean War. According to a “National Security Council Talking Points” report from 1969, when the North attacked the South in 1950 it had a two-to-one superiority ratio in ground forces over the ROK. In 1969, the ROK Army was much larger than its northern 116 Ibid. 57 counterpart.117 Years of military aid in response to the LIC occurring on the peninsula encouraged the US to pour money into the ROK defense. Additionally, the ROK economy had derived substantial foreign exchange earnings ($300 million per year) from its troops deployments to Vietnam, US-Vietnam related purchases in Korea, and US deployments to Korea.118 These “extra” earnings were utilized to grow and equip the ROK Army. At the time of these talking points, it was concluded that the existing ROK ground and naval forces, with only US logistical support, would be capable of defeating an attack of 25 North Korean divisions that were supported logistically by the Chinese. However, the ROK Air Force could not, by itself, deal adequately with a North Korean air offensive and ROK air bases remained vulnerable to attack.119 Therefore, the ROK still remained dependent on US logistical and tactical air support in the event that North Korea came across the DMZ. If Nixon struck militarily, and Pyongyang countered, the US would find itself fighting a two-front war against Asian Communists likely supported by Beijing and Moscow. William Stueck, a distinguished research professor of the history of US/Korean relations in the Cold War, asserts that “Henry Kissinger conveyed through Soviet Ambassador Anatoly Dobrynin that Nixon wanted to ensure Pyongyang understood that if another incident occurred on the peninsula, the United States would immediately and without warning retaliate with disproportionate force.”120 With Deep Sea 129 Nixon was now faced with what to do in order to apply disproportionate force in response to 31 US deaths. From recently released top secret archival documents, it is now known that Nixon began preparing for “Operation Freedom Drop,” 117 NSC Meeting. “Talking Points: Korea.” 14 Aug. 1969. Rep. Washington DC: North Korea International Documentation Project, 2011. Crisis and Confrontation on the Korean Peninsula: 1968-1969. A Critical Oral History. Web. 26 Apr. 2011. http://wilsoncenter.org/topics/pubs/NKIDP_Critical_OralHist_textL.pdf, p.3. 118 Ibid, p.5. 119 Ibid, p.3. 120 Ostermann and Person, p. 96. 58 a disproportionate attack that included three options for striking North Korea with nuclear weapons. Option one was to engage North Korean military assets with carrier and land-based nuclear equipped aircraft and Army “Honest John”121 tactical nukes, striking 12 pre-planned targets. Option two utilized carrier and land based aircraft to destroy 16 targets, while option three was the most devastating, with carrier and land based aircraft and Army “Honest John” nuclear weapons hitting 47 targets.122 The President and Henry Kissinger preferred option three in order to destroy the North’s “air order of battle.”123 As stated earlier, the DPRK possessed greater air superiority than the ROK. If this was to be done, then a simultaneous mass strike would be necessary for the element of surprise and to reduce the possibility for US casualties/POWs against the North’s air defense assets. The rationale behind this mass attack was to limit hazardous retaliation from the DPRK. Advisors warned that if any air attack was carried out, retaliation and escalation of hostilities would resume. If the US could neutralize DPRK air assets, then its ability to wage a general war would be contained to only its land-based assets. If the US was going to use military force to attack the DPRK, then it needed to be “all out” or nothing at all.124 “Operation Freedom Drop” was never carried out, and Nixon settled for the naval show of force instead. As known from Kissinger’s memoirs, Nixon’s National Security Advisor felt 121 “Honest John” nuclear missiles were the first surface to surface tactical nuclear missiles. They were readily available for US forces in the ROK during the Cold War period. 122 Laird, Melvin Secretary of Defense. Review of US Contingency Plans by Washington Special Action Group. Memorandum. National Security Archives, 25 June 1969. Web. 2 May 2011. http://www.gwu.edu/~nsarchiv/NSAEBB/NSAEBB322/Doc12.pdf, Tab L, p. 2. 123 McGreal, Chris. "Papers Reveal Nixon Plan for North Korea Nuclear Strike | World News | The Guardian." Guardian.co.uk, 7 July 2010. Web. 02 May 2011. <http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2010/jul/07/nixon-north-korea-nuclear-strike>. 124 Minutes of a Washington Special Actions Group Meeting. " Military Contingency Planning for Korea,” 02 Jul. 1969. Foreign Relations of the United States 1969-1976, Volume XIX, Part I, Korea, #28. State Department, 20 Jan. 2001. Web. 13 June. 2011. <http://history.state.gov/historicaldocuments/frus1969-76v19p1/d28>. 59 that, “it was the first major crisis of the new administration.”125 Neither he nor the President was satisfied with the end result and with the performance of their staff. There are many assumptions as to why Nixon chose not to approve the operation. The most obvious one is that he wanted to prevent a general war on the peninsula, over the cost of 31 lives, which would enact a much higher death toll. Around roughly the same time period as the Deep Sea 129 incident, Nixon granted authorization to begin the secret bombings in Cambodia. In spring 1969, unbeknownst to the general public, the US was engaged in a two theater operation being conducted with US Air Force assets. The air operations carried out in Indochina weighed heavily on Nixon’s utilization of bombing options on the DPRK. In a contingency plan memorandum detailing military strike options with B-52s on North Korea from the Joint Chiefs of Staff to the Secretary of Defense, all options recommended utilizing aircraft that were not based in Southeast Asia. The recommended aircraft were to be deployed from Anderson Air Force Base in Guam and Kadena Air Base in Okinawa, therefore ensuring no disruption of the bombing campaign in Indochina.126 The emphasis placed on developing strike options from air bases not engaged in operations in Indochina displayed where the administrations focus was at. If a sustained conflict broke out in Korea, the US may have had a difficult time carrying out and supporting air operations without diverting assets from Indochina. According to Kissinger, “Nixon looked for some other place to demonstrate his mettle. There was nothing he feared more than to be thought weak.”127 In May Nixon ordered the bombing of several more 125 Kissinger, p. 313. Wheeler, Earle, Joint Chief of Staff to Secretary of Defense (Laird, Melvin), Contingency Plan for North Korea. Memorandum. National Security Archives, 21 May 1969. Web. 21 June 2011. http://www.gwu.edu/~nsarchiv/NSAEBB/NSAEBB322/Doc09.pdf. 127 Kissinger, p. 247. 126 60 Cambodian bases to make all Communists understand that the US was not timid, and that it stood by its allies. If he could not divert air assets quickly to bomb North Korea and guarantee pilot safety, then he was determined to find a different place to put US ordinance on Communist positions. Another reason to not carry out a direct military strike on North Korea was expressed in a memorandum to the President from Secretary of Defense Laird, who feared a resumption of hostilities on the peninsula would disrupt operations in Southeast Asia. On 18 April, 1969 Laird gave his honest estimate to President Nixon stating: It is not clear we have the capability now to handle a major confrontation in Korea, if the North Koreans should react with a major assault of any duration against South Korea. The Joint Staff informs me: 128 - sufficient ground force stocks exist for about 1 week of hostilities, after which ammunition and equipment would have to be diverted from Southeast Asia. - sufficient naval and air force stocks are on hand for 30 to 45 days activity, after which diversions from Southeast Asia would have to be made. - any military involvement in Korea would involve a deferral of the RVNAF modernization program. - initial combat in Korea would include expenditure controls of combat supplies for U.S. forces. - the capability to receive and move combat supplies into Korea, at least for 30 days after the initiation of any combat will be extremely limited. - increased production of major combat items, especially ammunition should be initiated, and budget adjustments made, as soon as possible if military action in Korea is contemplated.128 Laird, Melvin, Secretary of Defense. “Memorandum from Secretary of Defense Laird to President Nixon,” 18 Apr. 1969. Foreign Relations of the United States 1969-1976, Volume XIX, Part I, Korea. State Department, 20 Jan. 2001. Web. 21 Jun. 2011. <http://history.state.gov/historicaldocuments/frus1969-76v19p1/d17>. 61 The tense situation between the Chinese and the Soviets could have also played an integral part in why Nixon chose the option that he did. The month prior, Sino-Soviet border clashes erupted, giving the Nixon administration the opportunity to close in on the two Communists giants diplomatically. As stated earlier,129 Kim Il Sung’s internal motive may have had him attempting to try and reunite the two by authorizing the attack in hopes that the US would strike the North; Nixon may have chosen to do just the opposite. By showing restraint, Nixon demonstrated to Beijing and Moscow that the US was not trying to stamp out Communism, but instead to contain it. If the US did carry out “Operation Freedom Drop,” the international backlash and Communist military reaction would have been warranted. Deployment of nuclear weapons in an era when the US did not have a monopoly over them, could have justified a retaliatory strike on bases in South Korea and even Japan (where some of the aircraft including Deep Sea 129 originated). As part of Nixon’s strategy to develop better relations with the Chinese and Soviets, his ability to show restraint in Korea may have enabled him to serve his purposes better. Another drawback to this operation was that many of the aircraft that were going to be utilized for the attack would be departing from Okinawa. According to David Reuther, “when looking at where the military had its assets dispersed at the time, the only way to respond militarily to the EC-121 incident was to use equipment out of Okinawa. This immediately involves Japan in the US/ROK response; which could open themselves up to retaliation from Pyongyang and its allies.”130 129 Appears in: Porter, William, P. Ambassador. “Telegram from the Embassy in Korea to the Department of State.” Letter to US Department of State. 16 Apr. 1969. 130 Ostermann and Person, p.113. 62 A more speculative motive for Nixon’s decision to not authorize the nuclear option was a personal one. According to William Stueck, “Nixon had a personal visit in 1966 to the ROK and was treated shabbily. He was not treated to a dinner and only had tea with President Park in the Blue House.”131 If Nixon’s visit to the ROK put a “bad taste in his mouth,” then this could be a motivation for some of his decisions concerning the peninsula. His Nixon Doctrine contributed directly to tensions in US/ROK relations starting in 1969 owing to his desire to remove one US Infantry Division from South Korea. In the August 1969 summit, Nixon told President Park that the US was not considering a withdrawal of US troops from Korea. But shortly after, Nixon sent Kissinger a memo (dated 24 November,, 1969) stating: “We don’t want to delay anymore on this withdrawal matter. I want to move forward with a decision for withdrawal of one division, and I want you to give me a memo on the matter by the end of the year.”132 This contradictory nature carried out by Nixon is just another example of his unpredictable personality, and possibly his grievance against the ROK. In the end, Washington reacted in three ways to the shoot-down. Armed fighter jets accompanied all reconnaissance/intelligence gathering aircraft. Until the end of 1968, armed escorts had always accompanied signal intelligence gathering aircraft. The deployment of air assets in Vietnam, used to secretly bomb Cambodia, shortchanged escort availability beginning in 1969 in Korea and elsewhere.133 According to David Reuther, an expert on North Korean affairs at the NSA, the US and Soviets conducted similar missions off each others’ coasts in order to gather signal intelligence. There was a tacit “gentlemen’s agreement” that existed between the two countries, and Deep Sea 129 did not deviate from standard procedure by 131 Ibid, p. 122. Ibid, p.95-98 133 Ibid. 132 63 remaining well over international airspace.134 Secondly, a protest of the incident in Panmunjom, at the Military Armistice Commission, was conducted as a formality yielding no positive results from the North Koreans. Lastly, a US naval show of force deployed to the eastern coast of North Korea. In the Sea of Japan, this show of force was the Seventh Fleet's Task Force 71 (see Table III). It consolidated and held intense training maneuvers from 19-26 April. This enormous demonstration of force intended to remind the DPRK leadership the US’s ability to quickly mass assets in the event of a crisis. Of all the American reactions to the shooting down of the EC-121, this probably carried the most weight. Four aircraft carriers with more than 350 warplanes alarmed Pyongyang with the potential for a possible air attack.135 Nixon and Kissinger were not happy with the conclusion. Kissinger called it a "weak, indecisive, and disorganized American effort in the case of the downed aircraft.” 136 Although many in the US would have rather seen a direct military response to punish and exact revenge on the DPRK, the fear of escalating the situation into war on the peninsula tied the hands of the decision-makers. In the end, the US managed to flex its military muscle in the face of Pyongyang with the naval show of force (see Table III), and maintained the US and ROK alliance through utilization of the UNMAC to protest the incident. The North Koreans were able to disrupt US intelligence gathering capabilities, while Kim Il Sung displayed his military authority to the Party leaders and the masses. The actual shoot-down of Deep Sea 129 appears to have been a target of opportunity for Kim Il Sung which showed the North Korean masses, and 134 Ostermann, Christian F., and James F. Person. Crisis and Confrontation on the Korean Peninsula: 1968 to 1969 A Critical Oral History. Washington: Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars, 2011, p. 112. 135 Bolger, p. 106. 136 Kissinger, Henry, White House Years, Boston. MA. Little, Brown, and Co. 1979, p. 321. 64 his own military leaders, that he exercised entire control of his military. It was not an attempt to coerce the US or ROK for any type of concessions or demands, unlike the USS Pueblo incident. Although possessing the most powerful military force in the world, the US looked more and more like a “paper tiger.” The persistent refusal to unleash a forceful military response to recurrent threats and provocations from an inferior foe was becoming extremely problematic for the United States. 65 Table III – US Naval Response to Deep Sea 129137 Task Force 71 operations USS Enterprise (CYAN-65) with air wing USS Ticonderoga (CVA-14) with air wing USS Ranger (CVA-61) with air wing USS Hornet (CVS-12) with air wing USS Chicago (CG-11) USS Oklahoma City (CLG-5) USS St. Paul (CL-73) USS Mahan (DLG-11) USS Dale (DLG-19) USS Sterrett (DLG-31) USS Lynda McCormick (DDG-8) USS Parsons (DDG-33) USS Radford (DD-446) USS John W Weeks (DD-701) USS Lyman K. Swenson (OD-729) USS Gurke (DD-783) USS Richard B. Anderson (DD-786) USS Shelton (DD-790) USS Ernest G. Small (DD-838) USS Perry (DD-844) USS Tucker (DD-875) USS Meredith (DD-890) USS Davidson (DE-1045) Abbreviations 137 CG guided missile cruiser CL light cruiser CLG guided missile light cruiser CVA attack aircraft carrier CVAN nuclear-powered CVA CVS antisubmarine carrier DD destroyer DLG guided missile DD leader DDG guided missile destroyer Dutcher, Lieutenant W. E. United States Naval Reserve and Strole, Lieutenant D. L. United States Navy, "Naval and Maritime Events. July 1968-December 1969," United States Naval Institute Proceedings 96”, May, 1970, p. 14. 66 Chapter IV Turning Point for the Koreas? After years of hostile acts starting in 1966, North Korea toned down its attacks along the DMZ in 1969. Aside from the EC-121 incident, it appeared that North Korean foreign policy shifted into a less aggressive strategy. Coercive diplomacy was not working against the US. No matter the level of the event, whether it was the seizure of a US ship on the high seas or the destruction of a plane killing all on board, the US was not going to remove its footprint in South Korea, or become a party to a major war. A new approach had to be developed in order to achieve unification under the Kim family regime. Kim Il Sung shifted his tactics to peaceful reunification of the peninsula. Seoul initiated direct talks with Pyongyang, and Kim’s acceptance benefited his country. Prior to 1970, the DPRK was not recognized by most countries; only 35 (mostly socialist) countries had diplomatic relations with it. In contrast, the ROK had relations with 81 countries.138 Park Chung Hee’s decision to open up talks with the North may have been influenced by pressure from the United States. In August 1969, President Nixon met with President Park in San Francisco and concerns over the ROK adopting a more conciliatory posture against the North and Communist world was brought up.139 It appears that Nixon was trying to reduce tensions in Asia in order to begin utilizing his Nixon Doctrine to reduce US manpower in that part of the world. At first glance, the North-South dialogue appeared to benefit both parties. The DPRK, once dialogue opened, gained recognition from five Western European nations and many more 138 139 Oberdorfer, p. 45. Ostermann and Person, p. 130. 67 neutral nations. Within four years, North Korea was recognized by 93 countries, on par with South Korea’s relations with 96.140 In the South, Park’s approval ratings allowed him to be reelected to another six year term as President of the ROK. Additionally, in 1971, the South Korean government proposed to North Korea talks to discuss modalities for reuniting 10 million family members separated after the establishment of the DMZ.141 For 18 years families had been isolated from one another due to the armistice and division of the peninsula. This was a humanitarian initiative and not a political effort. Unfortunately, the talks never yielded any results for the families. According to former Korean Central Intelligence Agency Director Kang In Deok, “Kim Il Sung would only agree to send North Korean families into the South if the ROK would eliminate its anticommunist laws, education, and mass media. Kim claimed that in North Korea there was freedom to criticize communists and freedom of movement throughout the country, and therefore the same should be expected in the South.”142 Kim Il Sung’s obvious dishonesty and desire to turn the talks into a political matter ended any hope for exchange and the reunion of family members. After Deep Sea 129, infiltrations from the North and incidents along the DMZ significantly dropped. In reality, it was just a shift in policy that the DPRK was implementing. By 1974, according to US Command’s intelligence estimates, the North had increased its military to 408,000 troops.143 The DPRK also spent 19.4% of its Gross National Product (GNP) on military expenditures, whereas the South expended only 4.1%.144 In addition, the DPRK was now capable of developing its own land-based military equipment, including artillery, tanks, and 140 Oberdorfer, p. 45. "Korean Red Cross." 함께하는세상 Together. Korean Red Cross, 2009. Web. 20 June 2011. <http://www.redcross.or.kr/eng/about/about_010101.jsp>. 142 Ostermann and Person, p. 139. 143 Oberdorfer, p.61. 144 Loo, p. x. 141 68 missile launchers. Moreover, the construction of infiltration tunnels began during this era. During the short lived détente with the South, the North began construction of as many as 17 tunnels along the DMZ. The largest of these tunnels had the ability to pass approximately 30,000 armed troops with heavy guns and equipment an hour, arriving at an exit point 44 kilometers from Seoul.145 The North was now in a position to strike the South offensively, if the opportunity presented itself. Much like North Vietnam’s ability to infiltrate personnel and equipment into South Vietnam through the Ho Chi Minh Trail, the DPRK now had a means to penetrate into the South. The true test would be if the US would honor its obligation to the ROK in the event of an attack from the North. As the US pulled out of Vietnam and stood by as Hanoi united the country under Communist rule, Kim Il Sung’s desire to unite his peninsula grew. With a new US President in office, and a war weary America, Kim Il Sung was about to test the resolve and commitment of the ROK/US alliance. Operation Paul Bunyan The Axe Murder Incident of 1976 demonstrated to the world the cruelty and hate possessed by the North Koreans and directed at the United States’ military stationed on the peninsula. Although the other significant events and clashes which occurred the decade prior resulted in loss of life for both Americans and Koreans, none were carried out with such horror as what took place at the Joint Security Area (JSA) in 1976. On 18 August, 1976 a ten-man element of American and South Korean soldiers set out on a routine tree trimming operation along the DMZ. An overgrown poplar tree was obstructing an 145 Kirkbride, Panmunjom, p. 72. 69 observation post and the element was given orders to trim the branches. Captain (CPT) Arthur Bonifas, the JSA Company Commander, set out with the group, his last mission before he was scheduled to change out of command and leave Korea three days later. He had his Executive Officer, Lieutenant (LT) Mark Barrett, accompany him to familiarize him with the area prior to his departure.146 When the small element began the tree trimming, an element of six KPA soldiers crossed over the “bridge of no return.” LT Pak Chul, nicknamed bulldog for his abrasive attitude, told Captain Bonifas to “halt his operation.” CPT Bonifas told the North Korean that “they were conducting a scheduled tree trimming” and ordered his men to continue with the operation. LT Pak called for KPA reinforcements, and soon the KPA element numbered thirty. LT Pak ordered CPT Bonifas to “discontinue this act of aggression because this tree was planted as a sapling by Kim Il Sung.”147 CPT Bonifas did not even respond to LT Pak and turned his back to him. In an attempt to save face after CPT Bonifas turned his back on him, LT Pak took off his wristwatch and wrapped it in a handkerchief. After placing it in his pocket he yelled, “Mi Kun a Chu I Cha!” This translates as “Kill the US aggressors.”148 Bonifas was struck on the back of the neck with a blow from LT Pak which knocked him to the ground. Immediately, five KPA soldiers began beating CPT Bonifas. The axes were forcibly taken from the workforce and two soldiers began striking CPT Bonifas in the head and face with them. While trying to escape, LT Barrett was attacked and also killed with blows to the face from the axe. The remaining US and Korean soldiers were beaten but did not receive blows from the axes. It was apparent that the 146 Bilbo, Mike. "Excerpts from 13 - Month Diary." Personal Diary. 1976. DMZ, Panmunjom, South Korea. (Mike Bilbo was a Specialist Fourth Class during Operation Paul Bunyan. He has donated his diary to the Joint Security Area and it currently resides in Ballinger Hall) 147 Ibid 148 Kirkbride, Wayne A. DMZ, A Story of the Panmunjom Axe Murder. Elizabeth, N.J: Hollym International, 1984, p.29. 70 North Koreans were deliberately targeting the American officers. The JSA quick reaction force arrived on scene and the KPA soldiers fled back across the bridge of no return. The two American officers died immediately from the wounds they had received; they were the first fatalities in the JSA since it had been established at the end of the Korean War.149 President Gerald Ford was now faced with handling Kim Il Sung and responding to the incident. He and Henry Kissinger, now Secretary of State, were presented with only a few options from their advisors. Those ranged from do nothing to launching an artillery attack across the DMZ to deploying a show of force with the ability to transition to war.150 The largest political consideration was to maintain US resolve, yet not ignite another war on the peninsula. Vietnam was still fresh in the minds of many politicians and Americans, and President Ford was left to “clean up” the decisions made by the two previous presidents. A year prior to the Axe Murder Incident, the USS Mayaguez also tested the doggedness of President Ford. In order to understand the rationale behind his decision to do something meaningful with the show of force, it is important to analyze the options presented to the President. The first option, “to do nothing,” would have validated North Korean propaganda to the effect that the US was weak and feared retaliation from the North. It would also suggested that the US was war weary from Vietnam, and that application of military force was not an option open to it when incidents like this occurred. In order to “save face,” the US could not sit idly by and let this event go unpunished. 149 150 Oberdorfer, p.75. Kirkbride, Wayne A. Timber - The Story of Operation Paul Bunyan. 1st ed. New York: Vantage, 1980, p.33. 71 The next option presented was to utilize artillery or naval gunfire to attack North Korean targets, including barracks along the coast and/or DMZ.151 The problem with this plan was that the North Koreans could have utilized the artillery attack to justify to its masses and allies that an all out offensive was necessary. While the US was deciding over its course of action, North Korea’s radio broke its regular programming to announce that the entire army and reserve force were being placed into “full combat readiness.” A strict blackout was imposed in Pyongyang, and the populace was crowded into underground shelters as air raid sirens wailed.152 As tensions rose on the peninsula, any direct attack on North Korea could have been the match that lit the propaganda fuse necessary for Kim Il Sung to motivate his military to attack. The final option was the show of force with the capability to transition to war.153 The ability to show North Korea and the world that it would not sit idly by after such an atrocity was paramount in Washington. North Korea’s provocative acts on the USS Pueblo and Deep Sea 129 did not bring about any type of direct military retaliation from presidents Johnson and Nixon. The rise in tension on the peninsula over the years needed to be quelled, but not at the cost of general war. Ford explained, “In the case of Korea, to gamble with overkill might broaden very quickly into a full military conflict, but responding with an appropriate amount of force would be effective in demonstrating US resolve.”154 To Ford, this third option was the most sensible. Soon, United Nations Commander General Richard Stillwell received his orders and with his staff began developing “Operation Paul Bunyan”. 151 Michishita, p. 76. Oberdorfer, p. 79. 153 Yoon, Tae-Young. Crisis Management on the Korean Peninsula: South Korea’s Crisis Management Towards North Korea within the Context of the South Korea-US Alliance, 1968-1983. Ph.D. Dissertation, Department of Politics and Philosophy, Faculty of Humanities and Social Science, Manchester Metropolitan University, October 1997, p. 272. 154 Ibid, p.79. 152 72 The US/ROK alliance weighed heavily on Ford’s mind at the time he made the decision. General Stillwell briefed the situation and his plan to the ROK President. President Park expressed his deep personal concern over the JSA incident, which he found “beyond human reason,” and stated that the North Koreans should be “taught a lesson.”155 He strongly believed that Kim Il Sung should punish the murderers, pay reparations, and guarantee non-recurrence; but he recognized that the Communists were not likely to be forthcoming. President Park’s complete support was vital because it meant that the entire ROK military would enthusiastically stand behind an operation with all the resources at their disposal. The military objective was straightforward. In order to “do something meaningful” USFK was charged with removing the poplar tree, display a show of force not seen since on the peninsula since the Korean War, and be prepared to escalate if the situation dictates.156 Within twelve hours of the incident, the Pacific Command was already mobilizing to assist the peninsula with dedicated support. The assets deployed included the USS Midway (an aircraft carrier), RF4D and SR-71 reconnaissance aircraft, nuclear equipped F-111 aircraft, tank-busting F4 Phantoms, and B52 Bombers. For the Army, the entire 2nd Infantry Division and First ROK Army moved into their combat outposts, an additional battalion of 105mm US Artillery were moved within striking distance of the DMZ. An additional battalion of ROK heavy artillery and a nuclear-equipped heavy artillery battery also moved within striking and response distance. The actual tree cutting element of 813 men, dubbed Task Force Vierra, consisted of a Company of ROK Special Forces and a Company of US Infantry, an Engineer Platoon assigned to cut the tree down, a ROK Reconnaissance Company, and an Air Mobile Assault Troop that was hovering in 155 Delateur, Conrad A. Murder at Panmunjom: The Role of the Theater Commander in Crisis Resolution. Thesis. United States Department of State Foreign Service Institute. Rosslyn, 1987, p.12. 156 Ibid, p.16. 73 twenty UH-1 Huey Helicopters 200 meters from the DMZ supported by 12 AH-1 Cobra Helicopter Gunships.157 At 0700 on 21 August 1976, the most expensive tree trimming action was conducted, codenamed Operation Paul Bunyan. Besides cutting the tree down, engineers were assigned three other tasks: be prepared to blow up Freedom Bridge to stop a North Korean advance; to destroy the illegal roadblocks placed in the southern portion of the JSA by the KPA; and be prepared to conduct a hasty river crossing to evacuate soldiers south across the Imjin River.158 A convoy of twenty-three American and South Korean vehicles entered into the JSA without warning to the North Koreans. A platoon of engineers ascended upon the poplar tree with chainsaws and began to cut the limbs off. Simultaneously, another engineer platoon began its mission to destroy illegal roadblocks. North Korea dispatched approximately 150 infantry troops with machine guns and began setting up positions across the bridge of no return.159 No shots were fired at the work detail and within 42 minutes the poplar tree and illegal roadblocks were gone. The most impressive piece of “Operation Paul Bunyan” was the ability of the United States and ROK allies to quickly mass forces from around the globe in preparation for a joint attack on North Korea. In three days the USS Midway deployed to the southern straits of South Korea. F-111s from Mountain Home Air Force Base were alerted, scrambled, refueled over the Pacific Ocean, and were in Korea within a twenty hour period. F-4s from Okinawa and two B52s also increased the combat power while ROK F-5s were scrambled and used for escorts. The horrific murders of CPT Bonifas and LT Barrett were a reminder of the tension that exists on the peninsula. After “Operation Paul Bunyan,” an agreement to remark the Military 157 Kirkbride, Timber, 31-47; Oberdorfer, p.80-81. Kirkbride, DMZ, p. 64. 159 Oberdorfer, p. 81. 158 74 Demarcation Line (MDL) and adjust disputed portions was established. In 1953 and 1970 the UNC proposed the adjustment,160 but North Korea would not approve an agreement for both sides to back off their combat troops two kilometers from the MDL. After approval by both sides of the newly established MDL, members of opposing sides are restrained from entering the other side’s buildings and crossing the MDL is restricted except under very strict conditions such as repatriation ceremonies. Incidents within the DMZ fell to all time lows after the operation due to the new alignment of the MDL. The lack of close contact with one another prevented incidents from spontaneously erupting. Immediately after “Operation Paul Bunyan,” a KPA senior member requested a meeting with the UNC. North Korean Major General Han presented a message to Rear Admiral Frudden from Kim Il Sung, stating: “it is regretful that an incident occurred in the JSA, Panmunjom this time. An effort must be made so that such incidents do not recur in the future. For this purpose both sides should make efforts.”161 This message from Kim Il Sung was the first in the twentythree year history of the Korean Armistice presented to the UNC. General Stilwell was not satisfied with the content of the message, but the State Department’s analysis of it concluded that it was conciliatory and as good an apology as they were going to get from the most authoritarian communist dictator in Asia. Although the perception of President Ford as a weak president exists, especially when compared to Johnson and Nixon, he was able to display the might of the US military without igniting a general war. The success of “Operation Paul Bunyan” showed the world that the US was still a capable and willing force in Asia and would not sit by and be intimidated. In three 160 161 Michishita, p. 81. Oberdorfer, p.82. 75 days the United States and ROK were able to plan, organize, and deploy assets from around the world in preparation for all out war. Kim Il Sung was reminded that although US presidents change, American sensitivity to its own casualties do not. Although the poplar tree is gone, the symbol for what it stands for is evident in the circular cement memorial that now lies there, with CPT Arthur Bonifas and LT Mark Barrett’s names inscribed on it. Kim Il Sung’s desire to not escalate the situation during Operation Paul Bunyan is evident in testimony by North Korean defector Pak Pyong-Yop. Pak fled the DPRK in the 1980s, after working for the Worker’s Party of Korea for over thirty years, including a period of time in the same office with Kim Jong Il.162 He stated, “After the murder of the American officers became a major incident, Kim Il Sung asked the Minister of the People’s Armed Forces, “Why the hell did you do this?” In reality, after receiving word that a tree trimming operation was going to be conducted, Kim Jong Il gave the order to, “Show them the Korean way, don’t care about the South Korean workers and give the Yankees a lesson. And don’t use guns.”163 Kim Jong Il’s mistake in giving the order to target Americans could have carried dire consequences to the North Koreans and the Kim family regime. According to Pak, none of the Party members revealed the truth about who gave the order. It was evident that even after the 1968 purging of military leaders Kim Il Sung still inspired fear into the Party members. Pak also stated, “That the Ministry of the People’s Armed Forces contemplated going to war but realized it was not a good idea. It was a time when the US forces were withdrawn from Vietnam, and China exercised significant influence over North Korean foreign policy. Kim Il Sung knew very well that such an attempt would wind up in failure unless North Korea could get 162 Michishita, p. 88. Jung, Chang-Hyun, Gyeot-eseo Bon Gim Jeong Il, rev. and enl. edn (Kim Jong Il Seen from the Side), Seoul, Gimyeoungsa, 2000, p. 201-202. 163 76 both materiel and moral support from China.”164 This could prove problematic to Pyongyang as the number one priority for the PRC was to pursue rapprochement with the US. North Korea did achieve a military-diplomatic victory in Panmunjom. In the 380th meeting on 25 August, the KPA proposed the separation of the UNC and KPA personnel along the JSA to avoid future clashes.165 This was the first time the KPA proposed the separation, although the UNC had done so several times before. The UNC agreed to the proposal at the 381st meeting, and extracted “all the assurances” from the KPA for the safety and security of US personnel operating on its side of the MDL.166 With the UNC “succumbing” to the request of the North Koreans, the DPRK was able to claim victory. For Pyongyang, the perception that the slaying of two American officers forced the US to separate the boundaries, for its own safety, was a major propaganda victory. Its use of coercion, “the use of force to get the target to comply with the demands of the coercer, but without completely destroying the military forces of, and occupying, the target state,” was a success when analyzing the event, and then the outcome, of the axe murder incident in the minds of the DPRK.167 After Operation Paul Bunyan, targeted attacks against Americans nearly stopped completely. The decisive US reaction to the murders of Captain Bonifas and Lieutenant Barrett caught Pyongyang by surprise. By standing by and not escalating the situation at the JSA, the DPRK leadership lost face, but the Kim family regime preserved its authority while achieving a propaganda victory for the masses. 164 Ibid, p. 203. Michishita, p. 80. 166 st DMZ Axe Incident (1976), “381 MAC Meeting,” August 28, 1976, Korean Security Archive, The Special Collections, (Washington DC: International Center, 2000). 167 Bratton, p. 102. 165 77 New Tactics North Korea’s reluctance to escalate the tense situation in the JSA during “Operation Paul Bunyan” may have been the turning point for attacks against Americans in Korea. Since 1976 only four US military personnel have been killed there,168 although attacks and incidents continue to be directed at South Koreans on the peninsula and abroad. The US military response to the axe murder incident demonstrated to Pyongyang that Vietnam no longer tied up assets; Washington was now capable, and willing, to carry out a general war against them if need be. The DPRK’s military had grown to 500,000, but the ROK army numbered 760,000 with an additional 42,000 US personnel.169 The capability for the DPRK to launch and sustain a war for reunification of the peninsula was not feasible for Kim Il Sung. He did convey to Bulgarian Communist Party leader Todor Zhivkov in 1975 that “the KWP and DPRK aimed to solve the question of Korean unification peacefully. If they attack us, we are ready to fight them. However, we will never attack first.”170 Kim Il Sung had the ability to fight a defensive war in North Korea. His country was militarized with underground bunkers, power plants, and factories that would sustain the North during a potential war along with the mountainous territory to hinder an enemy advance. However, unlike Vietnam, he did not have the advantage of slipping into the porous borders of Cambodia and Laos if he was to launch an attack and his military became overrun. The geography of South Korea would cause the North’s troops to become 168 Michishita, p. 199-200. Schaefer, Bernd. Overconfidence Shattered: North Korean Unification Policy. North Korean International Documentation Project, Dec. 2010. Web. 9 May 2011. http://www.wilsoncenter.org/nkidp, p.27. 170 GDR Embassy Sofia to Hermann Axen, SED Politburo Member and Secretary of the Central Committee International Relations Department, Letter and Translation of Information by the Central Committee of the Bulgarian Communist Party on Talks Between Todor Zhivkov and Kim Il Sung, 18 June 1975, p. 18-21. 169 78 surrounded and trapped if another “MacArthur Landing” occurred and sealed off avenues of retreat or retrograde. A conventional war launched against the South to unify the country is not a viable option for the DPRK. Attempts to destabilize the South through the utilization of guerilla tactics in the 1960s failed, as this thesis has demonstrated. Pyongyang’s use of subversion in the South to “educate individuals” and develop anti-state groups was not tempting enough to convert the entire ROK population in order to overthrow the democratic ideals that the majority of South Koreans embrace. Since the transfer of power from Kim Il Sung to Kim Jong Il due to the premier’s death from heart failure in 1994, North Korea has become virtually isolated from the rest of the world. At the onset of Kim Jong Il’s reign, his country faced floods which thrust the country into famine. It is estimated that between 900,000 and 2.8 million North Koreans died of starvation between 1995 and 1998.171 Kim Jong Il turned a tragedy for his country into an advantage for himself by developing the “military first policy” known as songun. He was able to bolster the numbers of the KPA through instilling this ideal into the Korean masses. In reality, it was a cruel recruitment tool for the State. Due to increasing food shortages, an adult worker received 450 grams of rice while a soldier received 800 grams.172 This produced a sudden surge of armed personnel which quickly increased the country’s military numbers, giving the DPRK international recognition as a state capable of unleashing its force against those that opposed it, including the US. The reality is although the KPA now numbers approximately 1.2 million active duty soldiers (fourth largest military in the world);173 they are severely ill-equipped and 171 Noland, Marcus, Sherman Robinson, and Tao Wang. Famine in North Korea: Causes and Cures. Rep. Washington DC: Institue for International Economics, 1999, p. 1.. 172 Ibid, Table III: Standard Rations. 173 "North Korea." U.S. Department of State. Bureau of East Asian and Pacific Affairs, 29 Apr. 2011. Web. 09 May 2011. <http://www.state.gov/r/pa/ei/bgn/2792.htm#defense>. 79 not capable of sustaining a prolonged war without outside assistance. Unable to provide enough food and support to the North Korean people, Kim Jong Il maintains his army as a “deterrent” while conducting hostile acts in order to receive humanitarian aid and maintain the Kim family regime. This could be an act of signaling by the regime’s leaders in order to launch North Korea into the international spotlight. Whenever the situation looks grim in the North, it carries out events that threaten regional security. Over the last two decades, Pyongyang has walked away from the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty, tested ballistic missiles in the Sea of Japan (East Sea), detonated a nuclear weapon, launched cyber attacks into South Korea, and continuously initiate engagements in the Yellow Sea. These events have inflicted sanctions onto the North, yet they still are able to maintain their regime. Non-government organizations, the ROK (sporadically), and China continue to prevent North Korea’s starvation and collapse. Neither the ROK nor the US has attempted to strike at them militarily in response to their aggressive initiatives. The notion of initiating a conflict on the peninsula, which would destabilize the North, acts as a deterrent for Washington, Seoul, and Beijing. If the DPRK regime collapses, the influx of millions of fleeing North Koreans into northeast China and the ROK would damage the economies of both countries, and create a humanitarian crisis in East Asia. Whether the Kim family regime is cognizant that its own country’s poverty is deterrent itself, or that they truly are ideologically conditioned, is unknown. Regardless, Pyongyang has developed and implemented its own style of foreign policy that has endured in a modern world approaching three generations. 80 Conclusion None of the principal plans which are required for a war can be made without insight into the political relations. - Carl von Clausewitz “Crazy”, “suicidal”, “foolish”, and “madmen” are all terms that have been used interchangeably by the press when labeling the Kim family regime and its advisors within the DPRK. It is easy, but also ignorant, to assume that is the case. In reality, the DPRK may be more rational than many believe. Since 1953 North Korea has managed to survive and maintain its sovereignty over its half of the peninsula while divided countries such as Germany and Vietnam have been unified. Pyongyang wants a unified peninsula and to “liberate the South Koreans,” but shifting international factors have caused it to alter their methods of going about that change. During the 1960s Kim Il Sung’s desire to unite the peninsula by inspiring the “oppressed” South Koreans to rise up and rebel against the government and conduct guerilla warfare seemed to be his best option. A general war would have been more difficult given his military capacity at that time. More importantly, North Korea would have never succeeded in repelling United Nations Forces during the Korean War without China’s intervention. According to Ambassador Horst Brie: “Kim Il Sung may have feared war because if war broke out again in Korea, he would have lost his power. Throughout the Korean War, Kim Il Sung played little role; China and Russia were in control of everything. Nobody would have kept him in power if a renewed 81 war occurred.”174 If this was true, and he had initiated a general war, he would have had no voice in the military decision making process for his country’s survival and would have lost his entire power base. By carrying out his guerilla-style approach, with DMZ skirmishes and incursions, he reminded his populace that there was still an enemy out there, which fueled his propaganda. Secondly, he attempted to wear down US and ROK relations, serving as a means of pressuring the US to leave the peninsula. For the US, its position during that particular time was extremely problematic. Vietnam took center stage for politicians, military planners, and the public when Korea was undergoing LIC. Events on the 38th parallel were a nuisance in comparison to full-blown combat operations in Indochina. Only when the DPRK carried out a larger affair, such as the Blue House Raid, the seizure of USS Pueblo, or the downing of Deep Sea 129, did Kim Il Sung receive the international interest that he wanted. Testament of where the US’ center of attention can be found in Henry Kissinger’s memoirs. His referencing of North Vietnam 81 times versus North Korea six times clearly shows that the priority and focus was not on the peninsula.175 Typically, one thinks of America constrained by time in war, particularly in a protracted insurgent struggle. It has worked for the enemy in Vietnam and looks to be working in Iraq and Afghanistan. Yet in this case, it was Kim Il Sung who wanted quick results from his guerrillas. By simply holding on, without cracking and without escalating the conflict, the US and ROK would be victorious. In the Second Korean Conflict, time favored the allies.176 Kim Il Sung’s need to alter his approach to uniting the peninsula shifted from guerilla tactics to “peaceful reunification” in the 1970’s. In reality, he used the lull in tensions to begin 174 Ostermann and Person, p. 78. Kissinger, White House Years, p. 1511. 176 Bolger, p.31. 175 82 tunnels in preparation for a surprise attack at a later time. In reality there could be no peaceful reunification. The US and ROK would not let unification occur under Communist rule, and the DPRK will never agree to any method of governance other than the Kim family regime. Kim attempted to exploit the US and ROK’s less confrontational policy towards the DPRK. If he showed the world that he could make efforts for peaceful reunification, then maybe the US would pull out of the South in accordance with the Nixon Doctrine. If peace was foreseeable on the peninsula, then a US deterrent force would not be necessary. Taking note from Hanoi, Kim Il Sung knew that if the US departed, then there was the possibility that it would not intervene militarily should hostilities resume on the peninsula. If the ROK was attacked by the North, it would be difficult to rally public opinion to intervene militarily, and take time for the redeployment of American forces to Korea. The North could utilize the tunnels to launch a surprise attack, seizing Seoul in a matter of days, before any US ground forces could arrive. The US is extremely sensitive to its own casualties. If the DPRK struck, as long as the US has a military presence in the South, the American public would favor military intervention into Korea even during a period of war weariness. Reunification of the peninsula is not likely unless the Kim family regime collapses. Even today, China does not want a democratic Korea on its northeast border even though relations with the US have improved since the Cold War. Nor would the DPRK be willing to unite under a democratic government, particularly with US forces in “its country.” Pyongyang sees the peninsula as its country, which can only be managed its leaders. It is the only true government in their eyes. Stephen Bradner, primary advisor on North Korean Strategy to the USFK Commander, expounds: 83 In the 4 July 1972 joint north-south declaration, the two sides pledged efforts for independent and peaceful unification in accord with great national unity, yet by 15 July 1972 North Korean media were again proclaiming that all Korea would be united under Kim Il Sung. More important, Kim Il Sung himself, in interviews later that summer with Japan's daily Mainichi Shimbun and monthly magazine Sekai and in North Korean publications, explained the meaning of these terms. "Independent" meant "to force the United States imperialists out of South Korea"; "peaceful" meant the reduction of armed forces and halt of military modernization in the south; and "great national unity" meant freedom for pro-North Korean subversive and revolutionary groups to operate in the ROK.177 On the other side, the US would not let Korea become a juche state ruled by a dictator with all that it has provided through the course of history in blood and treasure. For unification to occur, one of the two sides will have to give up its system. For the time being, the country has no other choice but to be divided. The North’s actions and motives have since transitioned towards regime and state survival. Kim Jong Il’s aid-based survival strategy has endured, while he has maintained his authority, since 1994. He has become extremely successful at implementing the “carrot and stick” approach for obtaining the assistance his regime desires. It appears that diplomatic progress is emerging when he opens the country up to nuclear inspectors, ceases nuclear weapons development, shows willingness to negotiate between the boundaries of the Northern Limit Line in the Yellow Sea, and invites US figures such as Jimmy Carter, Bill Clinton, and Madeline Albright to the capital. The “carrots” show the world that North Korea can be a rational actor. The gates of international aid open and the easing of sanctions often occur that reduce the suffering in the country. On the other hand, when the aid “dries up” and the regime needs international attention in order to maintain its survival, it employs a variety of sticks to 177 Bradner, Stephen. North Korea's Strategy. Rep. Arlington, Virginia: Nonproliferation Policy Education Center, August 2001, p. 43-44. 84 throw itself back into the spotlight. The sticks, most recently, are the detonating of a nuclear weapon, launching of Taepo-Dong II missiles over Japan and into the Pacific Ocean, sinking of the ROKS Cheonan, and the artillery barrage of Yeonpyeong Island. The international environment today is very similar to what it was in the 1960s, when Kim Il Sung was in power. Combat operations in Indochina overshadowed the DPRK’s attempt to receive the aid and assistance it needed from its Communist brothers to militarily unite the peninsula under the DPRK flag. China and the Soviet Union were too involved with internal issues and the support of Hanoi to throw themselves in another conflict in Korea. Today, all eyes are on combat operations fighting the Global War on Terror. Little attention is given to the DPRK when non-governmental organizations put the priority for reconstruction and humanitarian relief projects to countries such as Iraq, Afghanistan, and Haiti. Through the use of “sticks,” Pyongyang is able to bring the peninsula to the brink of war. Then as quickly as tension escalates, it diminishes. These bipolar endeavors portray Kim Jong Il as unstable and capable of doing anything. As a result, the world does heed warnings when threats are issued, but over time they lose credibility. North Korea’s greatest leverage is its potential threat, yet as it trades away the threat to gain the benefits of aid necessary for its survival, its leverage is diminished. The US/ROK can afford to ignore immediate North Korean unilateral demands, which reinforces Pyongyang’s reliance on the old strategy of inducing crisis and stirring up trouble to avoid being taken for granted.178 Only when an incident occurs unannounced, does the North regain that authority of being a destabilizing threat. Recently with the PRC and ROK’s economic global interdependence, the danger of regional instability often causes a mass influx of concessions 178 Snyder, p. 157. 85 such as aid, or the easing of sanctions, to provide the Kim family regime with whatever it takes to ensure brinkmanship does not become general war. Although South Korea has seen remarkable progress since the Korean War, the DPRK has undergone the exact opposite. In a world where Communism is essentially dead, the DPRK remains a self-professed Communist state seeking self-reliance and control of its masses. Ironic as it is for the regime to preach juche to its people, the extent of the dependence on foreign aid is really known only to Kim’s inner circle. As long as the Kim family regime is able to fend off total collapse, the North appears to be able to continue its unusual method of diplomacy to preserve its independence. Unless extreme circumstances present themselves, North Korea will be able to rest assured that there will be no invasion of the North by the US/ROK military. The world may never know why the North Korean leadership carries out the actions that it does. According to Don Oberdorfer, “North Korea is a black hole for information.”179 This is evident with the lack of archival documents that are locked away in Pyongyang, unavailable for access. The validity of these documents also comes into play. James Leonard, country director for Korea from 1968-1969, shares: I had a good friend, who was a Soviet diplomat, given the job of taking notes in a Politburo meeting. After he was done he showed his draft to Gromyko and Gromyko gave him hell. He said, “You idiot! You put down exactly what happened and that’s not what you are supposed to do. Here is what you are supposed to do.” He dictated off a couple of points that were not said in the meeting at all and that completely misrepresented the gist of the discussion within the meeting. Gromyko said, “Look these documents are going to become available to the capitalists, the imperialists, and they’re going to draw conclusions from them, and you’ve got to safeguard against that by the way you present the materials that we compile today.”180 179 180 Oberdorfer, p.60. Ostermann and Person, p. 121-122. 86 The truth and the answer to what has been going through the minds of the DPRK leadership is both challenging and frustrating. It will continue to haunt policymakers, strategists, and academics for the foreseeable future. In order to understand the present, one must recognize the relevance of the past. The difficulty to do either gives the reclusive Kim family regime an advantage over everyone including its “allies.” The X-factor has and will continue to be China. Ideology no longer plays any role in the support it provides. The geographical location of a rogue nation, capable of causing severe economic instability for a neighboring country experiencing enormous growth, is reason enough to keep it afloat. Trying to deduce any rationale for why the Kim family regime conducts its diplomacy, in the manner that it does, is perplexing. Stephen Bradner’s explains the mindset of the Kim dynasty as a cross between Lenin’s “fight-talk, fight-talk” dictum and the view expressed in Mein Kampf that an organism that does not fight dies.181 If this is the case, then it explains the inherited tactics passed from Kim Il Sung to Kim Jong Il to Kim Jong Un. Unquestioned loyalty and allegiance to the Party and its leadership is essential for regime survival. Through the exposure of this mentality, in a closed society, North Korea is incapable of altering its policy unless the regime collapses. It is, and will continue to be, a militarized society resorting to threats and force to achieve what it wants or needs to survive. Korea has been a strategic area of concern situated near the big powers of China, Russia, and Japan. None of them will sit idly by and watch one “absorb” the peninsula and make it its own. For North Korea regime survival, under the Kim dynasty, will continue to guide its policies and decisions. For decades, the demand for a drawdown and even a pullout of a US presence on the peninsula has been desired for both the US and South Koreans. Today the US, 181 Bradner, p. 6. 87 although remaining with its current troop levels and equipment, is preparing to transition to a supporting role towards the ROK military in the event that armed conflict appears on the peninsula. This is apparent as US bases are closing near the DMZ and military personnel are stationed in areas farther south of Seoul. It may have taken almost four decades for the Nixon Doctrine to work in Korea, but the South Koreans will have the lead responsibility for combat operations in their own country. Without this US presence, the DPRK’s actions would not warrant the attention that it desires internationally. Additionally, the presence of the US in the ROK has allowed the Kim family regime to survive. Without US influence on ROK military decision-making, primarily during the 1960s and 1970s, resumption of hostilities would most certainly have occurred. The makeup of the peninsula would be different today. Albeit playing a lesser role, the US military presence has, and will continue to be, the foundation for Korea’s means for survival and autonomy, on both sides, for the future. 88 Bibliography Primary Sources: Bilbo, Mike. "Excerpts from 13 - Month Diary." Personal Diary. 1976. DMZ, Panmunjom, South Korea. Bonesteel, Charles, General. 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