12/22/12 Period 14 Solutions: Climate Change 14.1 The Enhanced Greenhouse Effect 1) The Greenhouse Effect a) What is the cause of the enhanced Greenhouse Effect? Gases in the atmosphere, such as water vapor, carbon dioxide, methane, and CFC’s (from Freon and aerosol propellants) , allow incoming visible light from the Sun to pass through to the Earth. However, these gases absorb infrared radiation emitted by the Earth. b) What is the result of the enhanced Greenhouse Effect? More outgoing infrared radiation is blocked by green house gases. The result is a rise in the average global temperature. c) According to the graph of temperature variation, by how many degrees has the average global temperature changed in the past 150 years? by a little over one degree Celsius. d) What could account for this change in temperature? Carbon dioxide added to the atmosphere from the complete combustion of fossil fuels. e) What is the percent increase in atmospheric carbon dioxide between 1750 and 1996? 1750 = 275 parts per million (PPM) 1996 = 365 PPM 365 – 275 = 90 = 0.33 = 33% 275 275 2) Natural Climate Variations a) What three factors cause variations in the Earth’s motion? Eccentricity of the Earth's orbit : The shape of the Earth’s orbit varies from nearly circular to slightly elliptical with a cycle of about 413,000 years. Tilt of the Earth’s axis: The tilt of the axis varies between 22.1° and 24.5° with a cycle of about 41,000 years. Precession of the Earth’s axis: Changes in the direction of the Earth's axis of rotation relative to the fixed stars changes with a cycle of about 26,000 years. 1 12/22/12 b) These three factors combined are known as Milankovitch cycles. What is the result of Milankovitch cycles on global climate? The Earth has experienced cycles of warming and cooling over thousands of years. The Milankovitch cycles correspond to glacial ice ages. c) Group Discussion Question: Is it likely that the recent rise in global temperature is the result of a Milankovitch cycle? No. The last warming cycle reached a maximum about 10,000 years ago. The Earth has been in a long-term cooling trend for the past 6,000 years. 14.2 Evidence of Past Climate Conditions 3) Tree Rings as Evidence of Past Climate a) How can tree rings indicate past environmental conditions? Each ring represents one year of tree growth during. A wider ring indicates more growth and correlates to more precipitation and moderate temperatures. Tree rings may also indicate environmental events, such as drought, fire, or volcanic eruptions. b) c) Examine the rings in the slice of tree trunk. This tree was felled in Columbus in 2012. Can you correlate the rings with the average precipitation in Columbus over the past 15 years? Do the variations in the tree’s rings represent changes in climate, in weather, or in both weather and climate? Only changes in the weather. Climate changes over decades and may include variations in weather that are in the opposite direction of a trend in climate change. d) Data from tree rings can approximate environmental conditions hundreds of years ago using the method of cross matching. Each strip of tree rings represents data from one tree. i) Look for patterns in the tree rings that indicate an unusual pattern (several years of drought, etc). ii) Match these patterns across several trees so that your tree ring data covers the life span of multiple trees. iii) How many years of consecutive data can you assemble? 2 12/22/12 4) Ice Cores as Evidence of Past Climate a) b) Examine an ice with a magnifying lens. What do you see within the ice? Bubbles of air and possibly solid particles. What information about past climate could be determined by their analysis? Air bubbles give data on composition and concentrations of atmospheric gases. Solid particles may contain fossil pollen that indicates the species of plants in the region – indicator of temperature and precipitation. c) Ice cores collected by the OSU Byrd Polar Center and other researchers provide data on climate more than 100,000 years ago. Why is there an urgency to continue collecting and storing ice cores? Once glaciers have melted, this valuable source of information about past climates will be lost. 5) Oxygen Isotope Concentrations as Evidence of Past Climate a) What is the difference between the two isotopes of oxygen: oxygen-16 and oxygen-18? The nuclei of Oxygen-16 atoms consist of 8 protons and 8 neutrons. Oxygen-18 nuclei have 8 protons and 10 neutrons. b) Which isotope is heavier? Oxygen-18 because it has two more protons than oxygen-16 c) Water with which isotope evaporates from sea water more easily? Oxygen-16 because it is lighter than oxygen-18 d) When in the form of water vapor, which isotope diffuses more readily over land surfaces? Oxygen-16 because it is lighter than oxygen-18 e) Group Discussion Question: Looking at the globe on your table, imagine water vapor containing both oxygen-16 and oxygen-18 evaporating near the equator. Global convection currents cause this warm air to rise to the Earth’s poles. i) Water with which isotope will condense and precipitate first in the middle latitudes? Oxygen-18 precipitates first because it is heavier than oxygen-16 ii) Water with which isotope will be more likely to condense and precipitate near the poles? 3 12/22/12 Oxygen-16. Much of the oxygen-18 will have already condensed and precipitated. iii) Imagine this is a cooler glacial age, when the water that precipitates near the poles remains there, locked in ice. What will happen to the usual ratio of oxygen-16 to oxygen-18 in sea water? With more oxygen-16 locked up in ice near the poles, the concentration of oxygen-18 in sea water will rise above the usual ratio. iv) How can this ratio be used to determine past global temperatures? Analyzing the shells of microscopic fossil sea life, such as foraminifera, indicates the ratio of O-16 to O-18 when the shell was formed. This ratio gives information on the average temperatures at this time. 14.3 Consequences of a Warming Global Climate 6) Cloud Formation a) What are clouds made of – water vapor, water droplets, and/or ice? Clouds consist of tiny water droplets or ice crystals (especially in higher cirrus clouds). Clouds are not made of water vapor, which is invisible. b) Why do clouds form? As air rises, it cools. This causes the water vapor in the air to condense into droplets. c) Why does moisture form on the outside of a cold can of soda? Where does the moisture come from? Water vapor in the air is cooled in the vicinity of the can. The cooled vapor condenses on the outside surface of the can. d) As the Earth warms, more water vapor will evaporate from the seas. i) What effect will increasing water vapor in the atmosphere have on global temperatures? More water vapor, a greenhouse gas, means a greater enhanced greenhouse effect and warmer temperatures. ii) Does this represent a positive or negative feedback loop? Positive because the more water vapor added to the atmosphere, the greater the increase in temperature. e) Some of the increased water vapor in the atmosphere will condense into liquid water droplets and form clouds. 4 12/22/12 i) What effect will condensed water vapor in the mid-level layers of atmosphere have on global temperatures? Water droplets in the atmosphere reflect incoming solar radiation back into space. Less visible light reaches the Earth’s surface to warm it. ii) Does this represent a positive or negative feedback loop? Negative because the more condensed water vapor in the atmosphere, the less radiation reaches the Earth, so warming decreases. 7) Melting Polar Ice Sheets a) What is the likely effect on the environment of melting ice sheets, such as those in Antarctica and Greenland? Sea levels are likely to rise. b) As the temperature warms and melting accelerates, more liquid water will evaporate into the atmosphere. What negative feedback loop in the process of melting ice sheets is likely as more water vapor enters the atmosphere? As more water vapor enters the atmosphere and condenses, more precipitation will fall to Earth, including on the surfaces of ice sheets, adding to the ice pack. This is negative feedback with respect to the process of melting ice sheets. (Estimates indicate that the additional precipitation rate will not exceed the melt rate and the ice sheets will eventually melt.) 8) Ocean Circulation a) What effect does the Gulf Stream have on the climate of northern European countries, such as the United Kingdom? The Gulf Stream brings warm water from the tropics to northern Europe and moderates the climate of the United Kingdom. b) Why does the Gulf Stream water in the north Atlantic sink below the ocean surface? As the Gulf Stream water evaporates, it becomes saltier and denser. The denser water sinks below the surface. c) Where does this Gulf Stream water go? Where does it end up? The Gulf Stream water flows southward through the Atlantic Ocean and then eastward toward the Pacific. The water circulates through the Pacific Basin, flows west, and ends up where it began, in the southern Atlantic Ocean. 5 12/22/12 d) What could happen to the ocean circulation if large amounts of fresh water from melting ice sheets enter the north Atlantic Ocean? Large amounts of fresh water could dilute the saltiness of the Gulf Stream until it no longer is dense enough to sink. This would stop the circulation of ocean currents. e) What would be the result for our global climate? The circulation of ocean currents ended temporarily about 12,000 years ago when massive quantities of fresh water were suddenly released from Lake Agassiz in Canada into the northern Atlantic. The result was an abrupt cooling of temperatures in the northern hemisphere over the relatively short period of 70 years. f) Group Discussion Do you think the Earth is a sensitive system – one that is sensitive to changes in its initial conditions? Probably a sensitive system 6
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