ARTICLE Cancer Incidence in Israeli Jewish Survivors of World War II Lital Keinan-Boker, Neomi Vin-Raviv, Irena Liphshitz, Shai Linn, Micha Barchana Background Israeli Jews of European origin have high incidence rates of all cancers, and many of them were exposed to severe famine and stress during World War II. We assessed cancer incidence in Israeli Jewish survivors of World War II. Methods Cancer rates were compared in a cohort of 315 544 Israeli Jews who were born in Europe and immigrated to Israel before or during World War II (nonexposed group, n = 57 496) or after World War II and up to 1989 (the exposed group, ie, those potentially exposed to the Holocaust, n = 258 048). Because no individual data were available on actual Holocaust exposure, we based exposure on the immigration date for European-born Israeli Jews and decided against use of the term “Holocaust survivors,” implying a known, direct individual Holocaust exposure. Cancer incidences were obtained from the Israel National Cancer Registry. Relative risk (RR) estimates and 95% confidence intervals (95% CIs) were calculated for all cancer sites and for specific cancer sites, stratified by sex and birth cohort, and adjusted for time period. Results The nonexposed group contributed 908 436 person-years of follow-up, with 13 237 cancer diagnoses (crude rate per 100 000 person-years = 1457.1). The exposed group contributed 4 011 264 person-years of follow-up, with 56 060 cancer diagnoses (crude rate per 100 000 person-years = 1397.6). Exposure, compared with nonexposure, was associated with a statistically significantly increased risk for all-site cancer for all birth cohorts and for both sexes. The strongest associations between exposure and all-site cancer risk were observed in the youngest birth cohort of 1940–1945 (for men, RR = 3.50, 95% CI = 2.17 to 5.65; for women, RR = 2.33, 95% CI = 1.69 to 3.21). Excess risk was pronounced for breast cancer in the 1940– 1945 birth cohort (RR = 2.44, 95% CI = 1.46 to 4.06) and for colorectal cancer in the 1935–1939 cohort (for men, RR = 1.75, 95% CI = 1.19 to 2.59; for women, RR = 1.93, 95% CI = 1.25 to 3.00). Conclusions Incidence of all cancers, particularly breast and colorectal cancer, was higher among Israeli Jews who were potentially exposed to the Holocaust than among those who were not. J Natl Cancer Inst 2009;101:1489–1500 Jews of European or American origin have a higher incidence of cancer than other Jewish or non-Jewish ethnic groups in Israel. In 2004, for example, the age-standardized rate of all cancers among Jewish men who were born in Europe or America was 297.50 cancers per 100 000 person-years, compared with 255.79 and 286.52 cancers per 100 000 person-years, in Asian- and African-born men, respectively. In 2004, the age-standardized rate for Jewish women born in Europe or America was 272.90 cancers per 100 000 person-years, compared with 214.90 and 234.4 cancers per 100 000 person-years in Asian- and African-born women, respectively (1). Many European-born Israeli Jews who survived World War II were exposed to the Holocaust, which included severe starvation, extreme mental stress, and exposure to various infectious agents and to cold winter temperatures. Thus, a possible explanation for the differences in cancer incidence observed among the various Jewish ethnic groups may be differences in their specific exposure to the traumas of the Holocaust during World War II. The few studies that have investigated the association between psychological stress and cancer incidence in various populations have reached inconclusive results (2). Two studies (3,4) found a jnci.oxfordjournals.org positive relationship between self-reported stress levels and the incidence of breast and prostate cancers, but their findings were not supported by results of other studies (5,6). Also a systematic review of stress and breast cancer (7) concluded that stress does not seem to increase the incidence of breast cancer. In addition, one of the most commonly used tools for assessing stress exposure, the Affiliations of authors: School of Public Health, Faculty of Welfare and Health Sciences, University of Haifa, Haifa, Israel (LK-B, NV-R, SL, MB); Israel Center for Disease Control, Ministry of Health, Tel Hashomer, Ramat Gan, Israel (LK-B); Israel National Cancer Registry, Ministry of Health, Jerusalem, Israel (IL, MB); Unit of Clinical Epidemiology, Rambam Medical Center, Haifa, Israel (SL). Correspondence to: Lital Keinan-Boker, MD, PhD, MPH, School of Public Health, Faculty of Welfare and Health Sciences, University of Haifa, Mt Carmel, Haifa 31905, Israel (e-mail: [email protected]; lital.keinan@ icdc.health.gov.il). See “Funding” and “Notes” following “References.” DOI: 10.1093/jnci/djp327 © The Author 2009. Published by Oxford University Press. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please e-mail: [email protected]. Advance Access publication on October 26, 2009. JNCI | Articles 1489 CONT E X T A N D C A VEAT S Prior knowledge High incidence rates of all cancers have been observed among Israeli Jews of European origin, many of whom were exposed to severe famine and stress during World War II. Study design Retrospective study in a cohort of Israeli Jews who were born in Europe between 1920 and 1945. The exposed group (ie, those potentially exposed to the Holocaust) immigrated to Israel before or during World War II. The unexposed group immigrated after World War II but before 1989. Contribution Exposure, compared with nonexposure, was associated with statistically significantly increased risk for all-site cancer for all birth cohorts and for both sexes. This association was strongest in the youngest birth cohort of 1940–1945. Implications Individuals exposed to severe famine and stress for prolonged periods appear, especially those exposed at an early age, to be at increased risk of all-site cancer and should be monitored accordingly. These findings warrant additional investigations that use individual data to elucidate risk factors. Limitations Data on individual exposure to the Holocaust were not available, and so a proxy variable for exposure was used that was based on immigration date. The study included only Jewish individuals living in Israel. The birth cohort of 1940–1945 was the smallest cohort studied. From the Editors Schedule of Recent Experiences Questionnaire, which focuses on traumatic life events in the recent past (8), was not designed to capture stressful life events that occurred many years before and, therefore, could not be used for World War II survivors. Thus, to our knowledge, no studies exist on the relationship of World War II and its associated mental stress to subsequent cancer incidence. More is known about the relationship between caloric restriction and cancer in animals. This relationship has been used to generate the hypothesis that caloric restriction decreases the risk of cancer (9). The proposed mechanisms for this relationship include increased DNA repair activity, reduced cell proliferation as a result of the decreased availability of energy, and reduced oxidative stress (9). Hormonal changes may also be involved (9,10). The relationship between substantial—but transient—energy restriction in humans and cancer risk has been explored in only a few studies (11–19), with all being based on war-related extreme situations that, unfortunately, created opportunities to address this question. Four Norwegian studies (11–14) that focused on the long-term effects of the calorie-restricted Norwegian diets during World War II (average daily energy intake per person of 1240 kcal in the winter of 1945 compared with a prewar value of 2500 kcal) found positive associations between caloric intake and breast cancer risk. The series of Dutch studies by Dirx et al. (15–17), which were mostly based on ecological exposure data, detected no association between caloric restriction (average daily energy intake 1490 Articles | JNCI per person of approximately 800 kcal) and breast (15) or prostate (16) cancer. However, a weak inverse relationship between energy restriction early in life and subsequent colon carcinoma has been reported for both men and women (17). Elias et al. (10) used individual exposure data to investigate the relationship between exposure to the Dutch famine from September 1944 through May 1945 and subsequent breast cancer risk. They reported an increased risk for women who were severely exposed to this short but extreme famine (ie, average daily energy intake per person of 800 kcal; hazard ratio [HR] = 1.48, 95% confidence interval [CI] = 1.09 to 2.01) and a dose–response effect. In Guernsey, a British Channel Island that was occupied by Germany between June 1940 and May 1945, the residents had an average daily energy intake per person of 1200 kcal for almost a year (between June 1944 and May 1945). However, breast cancer risk was not statistically significantly elevated among women who remained in the island under German occupation and were aged 10–18 years in 1944 (HR = 1.28, 95% CI = 0.61 to 2.75), compared with those who were evacuated (18). Another recently published study (19) is of special interest. This study focused on survivors of the Siege of Leningrad, which lasted from September 1941 through January 1944, who were exposed to severe starvation (average daily energy intake per person of 300 kcal that contained virtually no protein). The study results indicated that women exposed to the siege were at a higher risk of dying from breast cancer (HR = 2.50, 95% CI = 0.92 to 6.80) than those who were not exposed. Among those aged 10–18 years at the peak of the siege in 1941–1942, these findings were statistically significant (HR = 9.9, 95% CI = 1.1 to 86.5) (19). Most of these studies (10–18) were conducted among nonJewish populations whose World War II experiences were considerably different, and probably less severe, than those of the European Jewish population. The average daily energy intake per person in Jewish ghettos and in concentration camps was, roughly, 220–800 kcal (20,21), and the length of the exposure to this daily diet of 220–800 kcal was substantial: Jews were interred in concentration camps and ghettos at the beginning of the war and remained there for the duration of the war. In fact, the longterm exposure of Jews to calorie-restricted diet often resulted in malnutrition, which was clinically manifested as marasmus (severe protein-energy malnutrition), kwashiorkor (severe protein deficiency), goiter, rickets, night blindness, anemia, and scurvy (21). Furthermore, some Jews were very young when they were exposed to severe conditions during the Holocaust, and an increasing body of evidence supports the hypothesis that events occurring early in a person’s life may strongly influence their subsequent health, including their risk of cancer (22–28). In this study, we investigated cancer incidence among a cohort of European-born Israeli Jewish residents. We compared incidence of cancer in the group who were potentially exposed to the Holocaust with that in the nonexposed group to determine whether the exposed group had a higher than expected cancer incidence. Study Subjects and Methods The Study Cohort The study cohort included all Jewish people who were born in European countries from 1920 through 1945 and who resided or Vol. 101, Issue 21 | November 4, 2009 had resided in Israel in 1983 and onward through December 31, 2004 (n = 315 544). The nonexposed group included Jews who were born from 1920 through 1945 in Europe and who immigrated to the area that would become Israel before or during World War II (ie, up to 1945). By use of these dates, we assumed that the ability to immigrate during the war years reflected, in itself, being nonexposed to the Holocaust. This nonexposed group contained 57 496 subjects and so was small. The exposed group included Jews who were born in Europe from 1920 through 1945 who immigrated to Israel (or to the area that would become Israel in 1948) after the end of World War II (ie, after 1945) (n = 258 048). Exclusion criteria included immigration to Israel after 1989 because, in 1989 and the years that followed, Israel experienced a massive wave of immigration from the former Soviet Union. Because exposures of these immigrants between 1945 and 1989 may have been very different from exposures of those who immigrated to Israel between 1945 and 1989 and because information regarding these potential exposures was mostly lacking, these immigrants were excluded from the exposed group. According to the Israeli Central Bureau of Statistics, 85% (approximately 268 212) of the study population immigrated to Israel before 1960 and 15% immigrated to Israel between 1960 and 1989 (29). Exposure Status We defined the exposure as living as a Jew in Europe directly or indirectly under a Nazi regime during World War II (ie, from 1939 through 1945). Because no individual information regarding actual exposure was available, we used a proxy variable that was based on the date that European-born Jews immigrated to Israel: after 1945 (ie, after potential exposure to the World War II Holocaust) to define the exposed group and up to 1945 (ie, before and during World War II) to define the nonexposed group. The use of this proxy exposure variable is, in fact, the reason for our deliberate decision not to use the term “Holocaust survivors,” which implies a known, direct individual exposure to the horrors of the Holocaust. Assembling the Study Cohort Data regarding Jewish immigrants from Europe before and after World War II were retrieved from the Israeli Central Bureau of Statistics. Two obstacles were encountered while assembling this unique cohort. The first related to the country of origin of the exposed group. The Israeli Central Bureau of Statistics categorizes the Jewish Israeli population by birthplace, as Israel, Asia, Africa, or Europe and America. We refined this categorization by birth country to enable separation of European- and American-born Jews. However, from 1983 through 1993, data on the specific country of origin were not available, and the issue of what the birthplace for those in the European or American group had to be addressed for those in the exposed group of immigrates to Israel from 1983 through 1989. The Israeli Central Bureau of Statistics estimated that Jews born in America constituted 9%–11% of those born in the total group of European- or American-born Jewish immigrants from 1983 through 1993. From this information, the size of the exposed group (n = 258 048) was uniformly reduced by a factor of 10% across all age strata for all immigrants to Israel from 1983 through 1989 to adjust for the number expected if only jnci.oxfordjournals.org European-born Jews were included (for a total of 232 244). The size of the nonexposed group (n = 57 496) was not reduced, because subcategorization by country of birth for this group, which immigrated before 1945, was available. The other obstacle related to determining the date of immigration is that the state of Israel was established in 1948. The Israeli Central Bureau of Statistics does not have a specific immigration date for Jews immigrating to Israel before 1947, but rather uses the year 1947 as a cutoff point. Our inclusion criteria, however, referred to the year 1945 as a cutoff point for the nonexposed group. Indeed, most of the Jews who immigrated from Europe before 1947 immigrated before 1939 and, therefore, were included in the nonexposed group. From 1939 through 1945, immigration was negligible but still existed. So, by use of these data, those immigrating between 1946 and 1947 would be misclassified as nonexposed. To reduce this expected misclassification, we estimated the size of this group. From 1946 through 1948, Israel was under the British Mandate and was subjected to its policy of limited Jewish immigration into the country. Therefore, most of the actual immigration into the country was, in fact, illegal. According to historical data, a total of 67 100 World War II survivors aged 15–45 years immigrated illegally to Israel from 1946 through 1947 (30). Because only those aged 15–25 years are relevant to this study (because the study cohort included people born in 1920 and later), we estimated that roughly one-third of these illegal immigrants should actually have been included in the exposed group. Therefore, we transferred a total of 22 366 of these immigrants in 1946 and 1947 from the nonexposed group to the exposed group, equally distributed among all relevant birth cohorts. The study cohort is based on a dynamic population, and person-years were, therefore, used to describe the study groups. In total, the study cohort included 4 919 700 person-years, 908 436 in the nonexposed group and 4 011 264 in the exposed group. Ascertainment of Study Outcome The main study outcome was the occurrence of a histologically diagnosed malignant disease. The Israel National Cancer Registry database was used to identify relevant study subjects with a cancer diagnosis. The Israel National Cancer Registry was established in 1960, and since 1982 it has been compulsory that all newly diagnosed cancers in persons in Israel be reported to this registry. Data collected by the Israel National Cancer Registry include demographic information (sex, date of birth, country of birth, date of immigration to Israel if applicable, and date of death if applicable), date and location of cancer diagnosis, histological type of the malignant tumor, and disease stage at diagnosis. Completeness of this registry is estimated at approximately 93% for solid tumors (31). We included all subjects diagnosed with a first primary malignant tumor, except for basal and squamous cell skin carcinomas. Subjects with in situ melanoma or in situ breast or cervical cancers were also included, as well as those with benign tumors of the brain (because the prognosis of such tumors is often similar to that of malignant tumors because of the specific anatomical site involved). Second primary tumors were excluded. Definition and coding of diagnoses of the various cancers were based on the International Classification of Diseases–Oncology, Third Revision (32). JNCI | Articles 1491 Statistical Analysis Descriptive statistics were used for age, sex, and country of birth distributions in both exposed and nonexposed groups and expressed as means and SDs. The incidence rates were calculated by using individual data in the numerators and aggregated data in the denominators. Numerator data (ie, information on cancer diagnoses in each group) were obtained from the Israel National Cancer Registry. Denominator data were obtained for each group from the Israel Central Bureau of Statistics for the following 5 years: 1983, 1988, 1993, 1998, and 2004. For each year, only people still alive and living in Israel were included. These estimates were extrapolated to produce denominators for individual calendar years, as needed. Thus, for example, cancer rates for 1988 in the exposed group were computed on the basis of the exact number of incident cancers diagnosed for that year, which was obtained from the Israel National Cancer Registry database (ie, the numerator), and the population estimate for 1988, which was obtained from the Israeli Central Bureau of Statistics (ie, the denominator). Cancer rates for the nonexposed group for 2000 were computed on the basis of the exact number of incident cancer diagnoses for that year, which was obtained from the Israel National Cancer Registry database (ie, the numerator), and by extrapolation from population estimates for 1998 and 2004, which were obtained from the Israeli Central Bureau of Statistics (ie, the denominator). The study cohort was divided into five birth cohorts (1920– 1924, 1925–1929, 1930–1934, 1935–1939, and 1940–1945) to represent the different ages at exposure. Person-years of follow-up were calculated by sex and exposure status for each birth cohort, as explained above. Standardized incidence ratios and 95% confidence intervals were computed by comparing the observed cancer rates in the exposed subgroup with expected cancer rates in the general European-born Jewish population of Israel, for which the rates observed in the nonexposed group served as an approximation. Because detailed data for the denominators required for these calculations were available for the study cohort from the Israeli Bureau of Statistics only since 1983, standardized incidence ratios were computed only for the period of 1983–2004. Standardized incidence ratios were stratified by birth cohort and sex and adjusted for time period (at 5-year intervals: 1983–1988, 1989–1993, 1994– 1999, and 2000–2004). Standardized incidence ratios and 95% confidence intervals were computed for all cancer sites and for selected cancer sites (colorectal, breast, prostate, and lung and bronchial cancers) (33). For prostate cancer, standardized incidence ratios were stratified by time period into two categories, 1983–1990 and 1991–2004, by use of the date 1990—when the prostate-specific antigen blood test for the early detection of prostate cancer was introduced in Israel—as the cut point. Prostate cancer incidence increased by 36% from 1988 through 1991 in Israel (1), a trend similar to that observed elsewhere. Because availability and accessibility of prostate-specific antigen testing may have differed between the exposed and the nonexposed groups and, hence, may affect outcomes for prostate cancer, we decided to stratify these data by period. To take into account the potential scatter within each birth group, we have used exponential Poisson regression models to 1492 Articles | JNCI compute relative risks (RRs) and 95% confidence intervals for all cancer sites and for specific cancer sites, stratified by sex and birth cohort, and adjusted for time period. Values of the relative risks and standardized incidence ratios are similar and so only the relative risks and 95% confidence intervals are presented in Tables 4–8. The analyses were repeated for a subcohort of exposed participants who immigrated to Israel up to 1955 because, apart from the large immigration wave from the former Soviet Union in 1990– 1991, a smaller one occurred in the 1970s and selection of an earlier cutoff point could have compensated for potential misclassifications. The year 1955 was chosen because by then most of World War II survivors who intended to immigrate to Israel after the war had done so. Indeed, 268 212 (85%) of our eligible study cohort of 315 544 had immigrated to Israel before 1960 (29). This was done by assessing the expected number of deaths in the exposed group in the time periods of 1955–1967 (calculated through extrapolation) and 1968–2004 (given by the Israeli Central Bureau of Statistics) and thus recalculating the corresponding denominator. The SAS statistical package (version 9.1) was used for statistical analysis (34). The statistical significance level was set at a P value of .05, and all tests were two-sided. Because this study involved no direct linkage of existing databases and all analyses were carried out in the Israel National Cancer Registry and the resulting data contained no identifying details, the confidentiality of the study participants was ensured. The study did not require an ethical board approval and written informed consent but was approved by the University of Haifa. Results General Description of the Study Population Participants contributed a total of 4 919 700 person-years to the follow-up: 908 436 person-years from the nonexposed group (48.8% from men and 51.2% from women) and 4 011 264 personyears from the exposed group (43.7% from men and 56.3% from women) (Table 1). Countries of birth with the highest numbers of study participants were Poland (1 487 570 person-years, with 15% of the total person-years in the nonexposed group and 34% in the exposed group), the former Soviet Union (1 247 448 person-years, with 14% of the total person-years in the nonexposed group and 28% in the exposed group), and Romania (892 644 person-years, with 29% of the total person-years in the nonexposed group and 18% in the exposed group). Countries of origin with fewer study participants included Germany and Austria (19% in the nonexposed group and 2% in the exposed group), Bulgaria (7% in the nonexposed group and 6% in the exposed group), and Czechoslovakia and Hungary (10% in the nonexposed group and 6% in the exposed group). Cancer Incidence Between January 1, 1960, and December 31, 2004, a total of 69 297 participants were diagnosed with cancer in the study cohort, 13 237 in the nonexposed group (6652 men and 6585 women) and 56 060 in the exposed group (24 773 men and 31 287 women) (Table 2), reflecting crude incidence rates of 1457.1 and 1397.6 per 100 000 person-years in the nonexposed and the exposed Vol. 101, Issue 21 | November 4, 2009 Table 1. Distribution of person-years contributed by study participants by exposure status, sex, and birth cohort for the study period 1983–2004* Nonexposed group, No. (%) Group Total Birth cohort 1920–1924 1925–1929 1930–1934 1935–1939 1940–1945 Exposed group, No. (%) Men Women Men Women 444 484 (100.0) 463 952 (100.0) 1 804 978 (100.0) 2 206 286 (100.0) 158 127 102 39 17 161 132 112 40 17 052 525 040 129 738 (35.6) (28.7) (22.9) (8.8) (4.0) 125 929 007 244 647 (34.7) (28.7) (24.1) (8.7) (3.8) 397 342 326 338 399 834 575 174 512 883 (22.0) (19.0) (18.1) (18.8) (22.1) 519 492 387 377 429 343 743 166 733 301 (23.5) (22.3) (17.6) (17.1) (19.5) * The nonexposed group included Israeli Jews who were born in Europe and immigrated to the area that would become Israel in 1948, before or during World War II. The exposed group (ie, those potentially exposed to the Holocaust) included Israeli Jews who were born in Europe and immigrated to Israel (or the area that would become Israel) after World War II and up to 1989. groups, respectively. The mean age (±SD) at cancer diagnosis was 64.7 ± 10.7 years (66.4 ± 9.9 years for men and 63.0 ± 11.3 years for women) in the nonexposed group and 62.9 ± 10.7 years (64.3 ± 10.2 years for men and 61.8 ± 11.0 years for women) in the exposed group. For men in the birth cohort of 1920–1924, the mean age at diagnosis in the nonexposed group was 67.3 ± 10.4 and in the exposed groups was 67.3 ± 9.9 years. For men in the birth cohort of 1940–1945, the mean age at diagnosis was 48.1 ± 11.4 years in the nonexposed group and 50.7 ± 8.7 years in the exposed group. Corresponding figures for women in the birth cohort of 1920– 1924 were 68.6 ± 9.5 years in the nonexposed group and 68.5 ± 9.1 years in the exposed group, and in the birth cohort of 1940–1045 these values were 47.1 ± 13.0 years in the nonexposed group and 50.9 ± 9.5 years in the exposed group. The most common cancer in nonexposed men was prostate cancer (16.8% of all malignant tumors) and the most common cancer in exposed men was colorectal cancer (17.8% of all malignant tumors). The most common tumor in both nonexposed and exposed women was breast cancer (30.4% and 31.4%, respectively, of all malignant tumors) (Table 3). Association between Exposure and Risk of Cancer As explained earlier, only cancers diagnosed between January 1, 1983, and December 31, 2004, were used to compute risk esti- mates for cancer. A total of 55 488 participants with cancer were eligible (80.1% of all cancer patients), 10 282 in the nonexposed group (5501 men and 4781 women) and 45 206 in the exposed group (20 930 men and 24 276 women). The risk of a cancer at any cancer site was statistically significantly higher in the exposed group than in the nonexposed group across all birth cohorts and both sexes (ranging from RR = 1.17, 95% CI = 1.13 to 1.23, to RR = 3.50, 95% CI = 2.17 to 5.65). Risk was considerably higher for both sexes among younger birth cohorts than among older birth cohorts (for men born in 1940– 1945, RR = 3.50, 95% CI = 2.17 to 5.65; for women of the same birth cohort, RR = 2.33, 95% CI = 1.69 to 3.21) (Table 4). The risk for colorectal cancer was also statistically significantly higher in the exposed group than in the nonexposed group across all birth cohorts and in both sexes (ranging from RR = 1.31, 95% CI = 1.19 to 1.45, for men born in 1920–1924, to RR = 1.75, 95% CI = 1.19 to 2.59, and RR = 1.93, 95% CI = 1.25 to 3.00, for men and women born in 1935–1939, respectively). Because of the small numbers of participants in the youngest birth cohort and large scatter in their data (Table 5), unstable risk estimates were obtained (data not presented). The risk for breast cancer followed a similar pattern across all birth cohorts (ranging from RR = 1.21, 95% CI = 1.10 to 1.33, for those born in 1920–1924, to RR = 2.44, 95% CI = 1.46 to 4.06, Table 2. Distribution of cancer diagnoses by exposure status, sex, and birth cohort, 1960–2004* Nonexposed group, No. Men Group No. of diagnoses Total Birth cohort 1920–1924 1925–1929 1930–1934 1935–1939 1940–1945 Exposed group, No. Women Rate† No. of diagnoses 6652 1496.6 3726 1823 863 215 25 2357.5 1429.5 845.7 549.5 140.9 Men Rate† No. of diagnoses 6585 1419.3 3248 1926 1105 260 46 2015.8 1448.9 986.5 646.1 260.7 Women Rate† No. of diagnoses Rate† 24 773 1372.5 31 287 1418.1 10 082 6554 4202 2448 1487 2534.2 1913.2 1288.3 723.2 371.9 11 692 8655 5141 3352 2447 2251.3 1756.5 1327.8 887.4 570.0 * The nonexposed group included Israeli Jews who were born in Europe and immigrated to the area that would become Israel in 1948, before or during World War II. The exposed group (ie, those potentially exposed to the Holocaust) included Israeli Jews who were born in Europe and immigrated to Israel (or the area that would become Israel) after World War II and up to 1989. † Crude rate = number of diagnoses per 100 000 person-years. jnci.oxfordjournals.org JNCI | Articles 1493 Table 3. Distribution of cancer diagnoses by exposure status, sex, and cancer site* Nonexposed group, No. (%) Group Total Cancer site Colorectal Lung and bronchi Urinary bladder Lymphoma Malignant melanoma Central nervous system Leukemia Prostate Breast Corpus uteri Ovaries Kaposi sarcoma Other Exposed group, No. (%) Men Women Men Women 6652 (100.0) 6585 (100.0) 24 773 (100.0) 31 287 (100.0) 4422 (17.8) 3152 (12.7) 2330 (9.4) 1180 (4.8) 1003 (4.0) 925 (3.7) 698 (2.8) 3061 (12.4) 114 (0.5) — — 152 (0.6) 7736 (31.2) 4653 (14.9) 1752 (5.6) 629 (2.0) 1163 (3.7) 1205 (3.9) 1155 (3.7) 641 (2.0) — 9817 (31.4) 1541 (4.9) 1491 (4.8) 77 (0.2) 7163 (22.9) 1099 624 629 336 450 236 189 1120 26 (16.5) (9.4) (9.5) (5.1) (6.8) (3.5) (2.8) (16.8) (0.4) — — 40 (0.6) 1903 (28.6) 920 384 130 283 431 252 128 (14.0) (5.8) (2.0) (4.3) (6.5) (3.8) (1.9) — 2005 (30.4) 335 (5.1) 301 (4.6) 15 (2.3) 1401 (19.2) * The nonexposed group included Israeli Jews who were born in Europe and immigrated to the area that would become Israel in 1948, before or during World War II. The exposed group (ie, those potentially exposed to the Holocaust) included Israeli Jews who were born in Europe and immigrated to Israel (or the area that would become Israel) after World War II and up to 1989. for those born in 1940–1945) and was highest for those in the youngest birth cohort (Table 6). As previously explained, we stratified risk estimates for prostate cancer by time period: 1983–1990 and 1991–2004 (Table 7). In the first category 1983–1990, the risk for prostate cancer was not statistically significantly different between exposed and nonexposed participants (except for the oldest birth cohort). However, in 1991 through 2004, the number of patients diagnosed with prostate cancer was larger than expected in some of the birth cohorts in the exposed group (especially in 1925–1929 and in 1930–1934) (Table 7). The small numbers of patients in the youngest birth cohort and the large scatter in data produced unstable estimates (data not presented). In the first four birth cohorts, risk for lung cancer was generally statistically significantly higher in the exposed group than in the nonexposed group among men (ranging from RR = 1.59, 95% CI = 1.39 to 1.83, for those born in 1920–1924, to RR = 2.27, 95% CI = 1.89 to 2.72, for those born in 1925–1929) and among women (ranging from RR = 1.05, 95% CI = 0.56 to 1.95, for those born in 1940–1945, to RR = 1.93, 95% CI = 1.39 to 2.68, for those born in 1935–1939). The small numbers of participants and large scatter in the data in the youngest birth cohort produced unstable estimates (data not presented). No clear trend in risk for lung cancer was observed across birth cohorts (Table 8). In a subanalysis, we extrapolated our data to restrict the exposed group to people who had immigrated to Israel up to 1955. The incidences calculated in this subanalysis showed the same trends, including most of the dose–response trends with regard to age at exposure, as those calculated for the total cohort, and were also all statistically significant (data not shown). Discussion Assessment of cancer incidence in European-born Jews living in Israel indicated a higher risk for all-site cancer and for specific Table 4. Association between exposure and risk of all-site cancer, diagnosed in 1983–2004, stratified by sex and birth cohort* Table 5. Association between exposure and risk of colorectal cancer, diagnosed in 1983–2004, stratified by sex and birth cohort* Birth cohort Birth cohort Men 1920–1924 1925–1929 1930–1934 1935–1939 1940–1945 Women 1920–1924 1925–1929 1930–1934 1935–1939 1940–1945 Observed No. Expected No. RR (95% CI) 8153 5591 3703 2197 1286 7155.00 3857.58 2320.65 1577.68 376.13 1.17 1.50 1.62 1.37 3.50 (1.13 (1.41 (1.50 (1.19 (2.17 to to to to to 1.23) 1.58) 1.76) 1.59) 5.65) 8474 6639 4164 2838 2161 6995.29 5239.30 2848.11 1835.50 933.36 1.30 1.33 1.48 1.55 2.33 (1.24 (1.26 (1.37 (1.34 (1.69 to to to to to 1.36) 1.41) 1.59) 1.79) 3.21) * Analyses were adjusted for age and period. RR = relative risk; CI = confidence interval. 1494 Articles | JNCI Men† 1920–1924 1925–1929 1930–1934 1935–1939 Women† 1920–1924 1925–1929 1930–1934 1935–1939 Observed No. Expected No. RR (95% CI) 1682 1053 658 388 1341.40 705.20 359.38 213.38 1.31 1.56 1.84 1.75 (1.19 (1.37 (1.51 (1.19 to to to to 1.45) 1.78) 2.24) 2.59) 1617 1151 638 374 1305.28 806.70 427.48 196.74 1.33 1.52 1.51 1.93 (1.19 (1.31 (1.25 (1.25 to to to to 1.48) 1.75) 1.82) 3.00) * This analysis was adjusted for age and period. RR = relative risk; CI = confidence interval. † Data for the birth cohort 1940–1945 are not presented because the small number of cancers diagnosed did not allow calculation of the risk estimate. Vol. 101, Issue 21 | November 4, 2009 Table 6. Association between exposure and risk of breast cancer, diagnosed in 1983–2004, among women, stratified by birth cohort* Birth cohort Observed No. Expected No. 1996 1761 1328 1124 896 1773.03 1538.04 828.51 683.48 373.60 1920–1924 1925–1929 1930–1934 1935–1939 1940–1945 RR (95% CI) 1.21 1.20 1.62 1.63 2.44 (1.10 (1.08 (1.41 (1.29 (1.46 to to to to to 1.33) 1.33) 1.86) 2.06) 4.06) * Analyses were adjusted for age and period. RR = relative risk; CI = confidence interval. cancers among Jewish survivors of World War II who were potentially exposed to the Holocaust than among those not exposed. The excess risk was inversely associated with age at exposure and was especially pronounced for breast and colorectal cancer. The large cohort size (4 919 700 person-years) and the statistical significance of the results make the option of false results rather unlikely. Selection bias may be inherent, however, because the exposed subgroup was restricted to those surviving World War II. Still, these survivors may, in fact, be more resilient than those who did not survive World War II and so the true association might have been even stronger. Direct or indirect explanations for the increased cancer risks among the exposed group include exposure to severe caloric restriction during World War II, to prolonged psychological stress, and/or to long-standing World War II–related posttraumatic stress disorder. Such exposures may have also contributed to the adoption of certain lifestyles or behaviors that have been associated with increased cancer risks (eg, higher smoking and obesity rates). Past exposure during World War II to various infectious diseases and poor hygienic conditions could, at least in theory (35), also contribute to an increased risk of cancer. Table 7. Association between exposure and risk of prostate cancer, diagnosed in 1983–2004, among men, stratified by diagnosis period and birth cohort* Group Observed No. Expected No. 179 63 13 5 269.85 86.50 18.37 8.57 0.66 0.75 0.66 0.47 (0.51 (0.48 (0.23 (0.05 to to to to 0.85) 1.18) 1.87) 4.18) 1050 757 529 308 1076.41 642.15 396.76 277.69 1.02 1.20 1.34 1.08 (0.91 (1.04 (1.11 (0.76 to to to to 1.13) 1.37) 1.62) 1.53) Diagnosis in 1983–1990† Birth cohort 1920–1924 1925–1929 1930–1934 1935–1939 Diagnosis in 1991–2004† Birth cohort 1920–1924 1925–1929 1930–1934 1935–1939 RR (95% CI) * Analyses were adjusted for age and period. RR = relative risk; CI = confidence interval. † Data for the birth cohort 1940–1945 are not presented because the small number of cancers diagnosed did not allow calculation of risk estimates. jnci.oxfordjournals.org Table 8. Association between exposure and risk of lung and bronchial cancer, diagnosed in 1983–2004, stratified by sex and birth cohort* Birth cohort Men† 1920–1924 1925–1929 1930–1934 1935–1939 Women† 1920–1924 1925–1929 1930–1934 1935–1939 Observed No. Expected No. 944 755 452 263 605.79 355.18 226.69 160.79 1.59 2.27 2.04 1.66 (1.39 (1.89 (1.59 (1.04 to to to to 1.83) 2.72) 2.61) 2.65) 545 447 261 121 492.91 357.34 135.80 117.16 1.15 1.35 1.93 1.05 (0.96 (1.09 (1.39 (0.56 to to to to 1.37) 1.69) 2.68) 1.95) RR (95% CI) * Analyses were adjusted for age and period. RR = relative risk; CI = confidence interval. † Data for the birth cohort 1940–1945 are not presented because the small number of diagnoses did not allow calculation of risk estimates. All-Site Cancer Incidence and Age at Exposure Few studies (10–19) have investigated extreme calorie restriction in humans and cancer incidence many years later. Their results are contradictory. Three studies (10,18,19), however, indicated a higher cancer risk among individuals exposed to severe but transient famine. The contradictory results may be partly explained by different methodologies but may also reflect modification of the outcome by factors such as age at exposure and the severity and length of the exposure. Jews who were exposed to the Holocaust during World War II experienced especially high levels of psychological and mental stress for extended periods (20,21,36). However, as mentioned previously, the relationship between such stresses and subsequent cancer incidence is still unclear (2,7). Age at exposure modified the outcome in previous studies (10,11,18,19) and also in this study. Among those who were born in 1940–1945 and aged 0–5 years at exposure, all-site cancer risks were 3.50- and 2.33-fold higher than expected among men and women, respectively. Early exposures, including antenatal ones, have previously been proposed (22,37–41) as modifiers of the individual susceptibility for future chronic morbidity. The mechanisms involved possibly include long-term impact on growth patterns, sensitivity of hormone receptors, basic hormonal levels, and behavioral responses that might alter longterm susceptibility to certain diseases ( 22,37–39). Age at exposure is a known modifier of cancer incidence, as shown by results of follow-up studies (40,41) in which associations have been found between childhood exposure to therapeutic radiotherapy for tinea capitis, enlarged tonsils, or thymus gland and an increased risk of cancers of the thyroid, salivary gland, central nervous system, skin, and breast, as well as leukemia. Likewise, an excess risk of breast cancer has been reported among scoliosis patients who had frequent diagnostic x-rays during childhood and adolescence (40). Similar findings were reported from a cohort of atomic bomb survivors, among whom younger age at exposure was inversely associated with risk of a solid malignant tumor (41). JNCI | Articles 1495 Incidence of Breast Cancer Compared with Jewish women in the nonexposed group, those in the exposed group had statistically significantly higher risk for breast cancer, with younger age at exposure being associated with a statistically significantly higher risk. Known risk factors for breast cancer include younger age at menarche, older age at menopause, infertility and low parity, higher age at first full-term pregnancy, no lactation, alcohol consumption, certain gene mutations, and a positive family history of breast cancer (42). Women exposed to the Holocaust, especially those exposed as children, had delayed menarche or long periods of amenorrhea as a result of their living conditions (43), two factors that are associated with decreased risk of breast cancer. However, other factors may have contributed to a higher risk for the disease, including weight changes. Weight gain at adolescence and early adulthood has been previously proposed as a risk factor for postmenopausal breast cancer (44–48). World War II survivors were prone to weight changes after World War II, when they had access to more abundant food. Another factor that may be influenced by caloric restriction is endogenous hormone levels. Elias et al. (10) suggested that the higher susceptibility for breast cancer observed in women severely exposed to the Dutch “hunger winter” may have been related to the abrupt halt of the famine and the subsequent ready availability of an unlimited food supply, which permanently and irreversibly affected basic hormonal levels and modified the long-term risk of breast cancer (10). Furthermore, Elias et al. (49) also showed that circulating levels of insulinlike growth factor, a hormone involved with epithelial cells turnover and associated with higher risk for postmenopausal breast cancer (50), were statistically significantly elevated among those with the greatest exposure to the Dutch famine (49). The amenorrhea experienced by many women who were exposed to the War as adolescents and young adults could have compromised their future parity and perhaps even have caused infertility, two known risk factors for breast cancer. Finally, many women in the exposed group who did have children had their first full-term pregnancy at a relatively older age. Increased alcohol consumption is associated with higher risk for breast cancer (51). Alcohol, as is true with other addicting substances, is sometimes consumed by people suffering from posttraumatic stress disorder (52). World War II survivors are at high risk for posttraumatic stress disorder (53), and the elevated breast cancer risk observed in the exposed group may, at least partially, be explained by higher alcohol consumption by some women in this group. Because both exposed and nonexposed groups contained only European Jews, genetic factors, as well as specific mutations in genes such as BRCA1 or BRCA2, cannot explain the observed results. The question of a different gene expression that was caused by extreme exposures, however, remains open. Colorectal Cancer Incidence Compared with the nonexposed group, the exposed group had a statistically significantly higher risk for colorectal cancer, again with younger age at exposure being associated with higher risk. Known risk factors for colorectal cancer include older age, inflammatory bowel diseases, benign colorectal tumor, family history of colorectal cancer, certain familial genetic diseases, obesity, and 1496 Articles | JNCI nutritional factors, such as a diet lacking in fruit, vegetables, and fiber but rich in red meat and saturated fat (54). Calorie restriction was also suggested as a risk modifier. Dirx et al. (17), referring to the Dutch famine, suggested that those exposed to more severe caloric restriction during World War II were at a non-statistically significantly lower risk for colorectal cancer. Similar findings were reported from Norway, in which an unexpected drop in the incidence of colorectal cancer was noticed among the cohorts born during or shortly after World War II (55), as well as in Estonia, Sweden, and Denmark (56). Results of our study are contradictory. Differences in the length and severity of exposures between Jewish and non-Jewish populations during World War II, as discussed above, may partially explain the contradiction. Recently, lower calcium intake (57,58), lower folic acid consumption (59), and vitamin D deficiency (44,58) have been proposed as risk factors for colorectal adenomas and malignant tumors. Inmates of ghettos and concentration camps suffered from prolonged vitamin and mineral deficiencies because of their poorly balanced and inadequate diet (20,21). These exposures may also partially explain the contradictory results. Genetic factors and specific genetic disorders should not explain the results observed because the exposed and nonexposed subgroups were European Jews. However, for colorectal cancer, the question of a different gene expression caused by the extreme exposures remains open. Prostate Cancer Incidence Before 1991, incidence of prostate cancer among Jewish men in the exposed and nonexposed groups was essentially the same. However, after 1990, the birth cohorts of 1925–1929 and 1930– 1935 in the exposed group had a higher-than-expected incidence of prostate cancer. Known risk factors for prostate cancer include older age and a positive family history of the disease. Nutrition and obesity also may be risk factors for prostate cancer (60). The higher risk for prostate cancer diagnosed in 1991–2004, which was observed for some birth cohorts in the exposed group, might be associated with nutritional deficiencies potentially experienced by this group during World War II. Caloric restriction has been previously associated with a non-statistically significantly higher risk for prostate cancer (RR = 1.30, 95% CI = 0.97 to 1.73) (16). Lack of vitamins D and E as well as calcium and selenium have also been reported as potential risk factors for prostate cancer (61) and were potentially experienced by many in the exposed group in this study. Furthermore, the modifying effect of age was also evident. High plasma levels of insulin-like growth factor I have been positively associated with prostate cancer risk (62–64). In mice, lifelong caloric restriction has been associated with lower circulating levels of insulin-like growth factor I and thus lower risk for prostate cancer. In addition, compared with mice fed ad libitum throughout life, calorie-restricted mice had higher plasma levels of insulin-like growth factor I when refed (65), suggesting a permanent change in the hypothalamus–pituitary axis after the famine, when food is again abundant. These findings are also supported by those of Elias et al. (49). Thus, it is possible that this mechanism would apply to men in the exposed group, especially those exposed as adolescents. Vol. 101, Issue 21 | November 4, 2009 Incidence of Lung and Bronchial Cancer We found that potential exposure to the Holocaust was associated with a higher risk for lung and bronchial adenocarcinoma than nonexposure. The best known risk factor for lung and bronchial cancer is tobacco use (66). Unfortunately, we had no information on the smoking status of the study participants, but some data support the hypothesis that smoking may be more prevalent in the exposed group than in the nonexposed group. As mentioned earlier, persons who experienced the Holocaust are at high risk for posttraumatic stress disorder (52,53,67). Tobacco smoking is often used by people suffering from posttraumatic stress disorder (51). Hapke et al. (68) found that smoking was statistically significantly more prevalent among patients with posttraumatic stress disorder than among those without the disorder (odds ratio [OR] = 1.28, 95% CI = 1.09 to 1.28) and that their addiction tendency was higher (OR = 2.21, 95% CI = 1.16 to 3.90) (68). These findings were more pronounced in men than in women (69). Interestingly, in the study of the survivors of the Siege of Leningrad(19), higher prevalence of past and current smoking was reported for those who were exposed to the siege (80.9% and 20.7% in men and women, respectively) than for those were not exposed (78.8% and 13.4% in men and women, respectively). Thus, exposure to past traumas and perhaps also subsequent posttraumatic stress disorder, which later led to higher smoking rates, may have contributed to the higher incidence of lung and bronchial cancer observed in the exposed group. Additionally, chronic lung diseases, such as chronic obstructive lung disease, emphysema, and tuberculosis, have also been proposed as independent risk factors for lung cancer, after adjustment for smoking (70). The exposed group potentially encountered extreme living conditions and thus acquired acute and chronic lung infections, including tuberculosis. Such infection often deteriorated into a severe and chronic condition, because neither proper nutrition nor medical care was available, and thus may contribute to an increased risk of lung cancer. Advantages and Limitations Although several other studies addressed the issue of calorie restriction during World War II and its impact on subsequent cancer incidence (10–19), this study is the first, to the best of our knowledge, to refer specifically to the most exposed population at that time—European Jews. Additionally, the study cohort is based on all Israeli citizens who fulfill the study inclusion criteria, not merely a sample of the reference population. The large cohort size made the analyses of specific cancer sites possible and contributed to the higher study power. Furthermore, follow-up was longer than 40 years. In addition, data analyses took into account the potential scatter in the birth cohorts by using exponential Poisson regression models. The study had several limitations and so caution is needed when interpreting the findings. The study focused on World War II survivors residing in Israel but did not include World War II survivors living in other countries. Still, the Israeli population of Jewish Holocaust survivors is currently the largest worldwide (71,72). The birth cohort of 1940–1945 was the smallest of all cohorts, especially for the nonexposed group, and contained the few jnci.oxfordjournals.org people who managed to immigrate during the years of World War II. Thus, the observed cancer incidence rates in this nonexposed group, which served as the “expected” rates for the standardized incidence ratio calculations, may have been unstable. However, the trend observed across all birth cohorts and results of previous publications (10,18,19,22–25) addressing the issue of the modifying effect of age at exposure indicate that the “expected” rates used for the youngest birth cohort were not heavily biased. The exposure in this study (ie, living as a Jew in Europe under the Nazi regime during World War II) was not measured directly but rather was assessed with a proxy variable that was based on the date of immigration (before 1939 or after 1945). The Jewish population in pre–World War II Europe included more than 8 500 000 individuals, with more than 3 000 000 living in Poland alone (Appendix Table 1) (73). According to the Molotov–Ribbentrop Pact (August 1939), a total of 1 200 000 Polish Jews became Soviet citizens after the Nazi occupation of Poland in September 1939. Additionally, up to 300 000 Polish Jews moved into the Soviet parts of Poland between September 1939 and February 1940. Some returned to Poland after a short stay and others found themselves under Nazi occupation after the German invasion of the former Soviet Union in June 1941 (73) but many stayed in the Soviet areas. Other European Jews may have also been relatively protected during World War II because of their successful escape from occupied territories to nonoccupied countries in Europe, such as the United Kingdom, Sweden, Spain, Portugal, or Switzerland. Because many of these people immigrated to Israel when the War was over, some of those defined as exposed may, in fact, have been misclassified and should have been defined as nonexposed. However, because this misclassification is not expected to be differential, the estimated standardized incidence ratios may be attenuated and thus actually be larger. The outcome in this study—cancer incidence—was ascertained since 1960 when the Israel National Cancer Registry was established. Participants who were diagnosed with cancer before this date are not included. This practice may have also caused a misclassification, especially for childhood cancer in the youngest birth cohort. However, childhood cancers diagnosed among Israeli citizens account for no more than 1% of all cancers diagnosed each year. Additionally, when the Israel National Cancer Registry was established in 1960, the youngest birth cohort (1940–1945) would have included individuals 15–20 years old, participants in that cohort could still have been diagnosed with childhood cancer, and their data could have been contributed to the Israel National Cancer Registry. Finally, no individual data were available concerning other exposures that might have contributed to a higher cancer incidence in World War II survivors, such as smoking or alcohol consumption. Conclusions Jewish survivors of World War II who were potentially exposed to the Holocaust were at a higher risk for cancer occurrence later on in life than those not exposed. The risk appears to be modified by age at exposure, with younger age at exposure being associated with higher risk. These observations may have direct impact on the JNCI | Articles 1497 health of World War II Jewish survivors and thus the care required from their caregivers in Israel and elsewhere. Consequently, better procedures for the early detection of all types of cancer are warranted. Furthermore, data from the exposed and nonexposed groups in this study may be a valuable contribution to the etiologic research of cancer. These findings warrant further epidemiological studies (such as case–control studies) of past and present risk factors that use individual data. Time is a key element in such research, because the population of Jewish survivors of World War II is aging. Appendix Table 1. 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Prior lung disease and risk of lung cancer in a large prospective study. Cancer Causes Control. 2004;15(8):819–827. 71. Ukeles Associates Inc. An Estimate of the Current Distribution of Jewish Victims of Nazi Persecution. New York: International Commission on Holocaust Era Insurance Claims; 2003. 72. DellaPergola S. Review of Relevant Demographic Information on World Jewry. HESHVAN 5764. Jerusalem, Israel: International Commission on Holocaust Era Insurance Claims; 2003. 73. Dawidowich LS. The War against the Jews 1933–1945 [in Hebrew]. Tel Aviv, Israel: Zmora Bitan; 1982. Funding Israel Cancer Association (20050122, 2005). Notes L. Keinan-Boker wrote the manuscript. She assisted N. Vin-Raviv with the analysis, writing, and submission of her MPH thesis, on which this article is based. She with M. Barchana and S. Linn are currently supervising the PhD dissertation of N. Vin-Raviv, which focuses on individual research of these findings. N. Vin-Raviv was involved with data acquisition and verification and assisted M. Barchana with formulating the main study idea and hypotheses. She carried out the work described in this article, including some of the statistical analyses, as part of her MPH thesis. She assisted L. Keinan-Boker with the writing of the manuscript. I. Liphshitz carried out the main statistical analyses described in this study. S. Linn supervised N. Vin-Raviv on her MPH thesis. S. Linn assisted L. Keinan-Boker with the writing of the manuscript. M. Barchana formulated the main study idea and hypotheses and supervised the MPH thesis of N. Vin-Raviv. M. Barchana, N. Vin-Raviv, and S. Linn were involved with formulation of the main study idea and hypotheses and supervised the MPH thesis of N. Vin-Raviv. M. Barchana assisted L. Keinan-Boker with the writing of the manuscript. JNCI | Articles 1499 The authors had full responsibility for the design of the study; the collection, analysis, and interpretation of the data; the decision to submit the manuscript for publication; and the writing of the manuscript. The authors would like to thank Dr. Ilya Novikov from the Biostatistical Unit in the Gertner Institute, the Sheba Medical Center, Israel, for his assistance with the final statistical analyses. 1500 Articles | JNCI This work is based on the MPH thesis of Neomi Vin-Raviv, which was submitted to the School of Public Health, the University of Haifa, Haifa, Israel, as partial fulfillment of the requirements for her master’s degree. Manuscript received August 15, 2008; revised July 28, 2009; accepted August 7, 2009. Vol. 101, Issue 21 | November 4, 2009
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