Revisiting the views of swing voters
ahead of the Labour leadership result
A survey of our ‘Battleground Britain’ panel
7th – 11th September 2015
Background
Glasgow East
•  We’ve returned to the five
constituencies we tracked over
the course of GE2015 to ask our
panel of swing voters how
they’re feeling now and what
they make of the Labour
leadership election
•  This presentation includes the
findings from an online survey
completed by over half of our
panel of 56 swing voters
•  Fieldwork conducted before the
election result was announced
(7th – 11th September)
Taunton Deane
Dewsbury
Ealing Central
and Acton
Thanet South
Summary of findings: the wider context
•  Overall, our swing voters are more optimistic today
than they were four months ago
•  Their hopes remain the same and are focused on continuing
economic recovery and stability - particularly stability that
translates into their own lives, through job security and
increased pay
•  Their fears for the future are now much more focused
on international rather than domestic issues
•  Fear about immigration has now trumped public services
(including the future of the NHS) to top their list
•  The migration/refugee crisis is seen to have dominated the
post-election news agenda, though the Labour leadership race
comes in at a close second
Summary of findings: views of the parties
•  All except the most Labour-leaning of our swing voters
are pretty satisfied with the Conservatives’ record so
far, and with David Cameron as Prime Minister
•  The words most commonly used to describe the party relate to
‘predictability’ and ‘stability’
•  Most criticisms come from 2015 Labour voters, who are critical
of the Tories’ ‘heartless’ stance on welfare and refugees
•  Almost all of our swing voters – including 2015 Labour
voters – say that Labour’s performance since GE2015
leaves a lot to be desired
•  In stark contrast to the ‘steady’ influence of the Conservatives,
the Labour party’s performance is most likely to be described
as ‘poor’, ‘weak’ and ‘confused’
Summary of findings: Labour leadership
•  Of the four candidates, Andy Burnham did marginally
better in terms of expectations of improving Labour’s
electoral chances
•  But none of the candidates stood out
•  Corbyn was overwhelmingly associated with standing
for old-fashioned socialism
•  While this is appealing for some previous Labour and SNP
voters, there are concerns about what a Corbyn victory would
mean for the stability of the Labour party
•  And many wonder how Corbyn would fare against the
Conservatives in Parliament
How the mood has changed since
GE2015
Overall, optimism has grown among our swing
voters since May 2015
May
•  Conservative and SNP voters are most likely to
feel optimistic
•  …while Labour voters have the strongest
likelihood of feeling pessimistic
Now
Optimism/pessimism by voter:
0%
Conservative
voters
Labour
voters
Optimistic
Pessimistic
Neither
Lib Dem
voters
SNP voters
UKIP voters
Q. Now thinking how optimistic or pessimistic you feel about the future as the result of the election outcome,
which is of the statements below comes closest to your view?
50%
100%
Voters’ hopes for the future reveal a continued
focus on the economy, particularly job prospects
May
Now
•  Immediately after the
election, voters’ hopes
focused on the economy
and fairness
•  This focus on the economy
continues to hold true –
especially from the
perspective of voters
feeling the recovery in
their own lives, including
better job prospects and
increased pay
•  For those in Scotland,
independence remains a
live issue
…while concerns about immigration firmly tops
voters’ fears for the future
May
Now
•  Having barely featured in voters’ top
fears back in May, today immigration
has shot to the top of the list
•  While concern remains about public
sector cuts and more austerity, public
services including the NHS have
slipped down the agenda for most of
our swing voters
•  For several, there are also concerns
that the economic recovery won’t be
sustained
The refugee crisis is by far and away seen as
having dominated the post GE2015 news agenda
•  Combined, our panelists are most likely to reference the migration
‘crisis’ – but are split in how they describe it
•  Some use more sympathetic language around ‘refugees’ and ‘asylum
seekers’, while others solely reference ‘migrants’ and ‘immigrants’
But coverage of the Labour leadership comes
in a close second
•  Most talk about the leadership contest in general terms, though
Jeremy Corbyn is more likely than any of the other candidates to be
remembered as being in the news
•  And a small number are critical of Labour’s handling of the contest
It’s all been about Jeremy Corbyn.
Basically Labour have made a mess of
finding a new leader…
Perceptions of the parties and party
leaders since GE2015
The Conservative party
All but Labour and SNP voters describe
themselves as satisfied or neutral about the
Conservatives record post GE2015 so far
•  And even then, a small number of SNP voters in Glasgow East
describe themselves as ‘satisfied’ with the Conservatives
Overall satisfaction with the
Conservative party:
41%
satisfied
Satisfaction according to previous vote:
0%
50%
100%
Conservative voters
Labour voters
Lib Dem voters
SNP voters
UKIP voters
Satisfied
Neutral
Dissatisfied
Q. Thinking about their performance over the past four months, how satisfied or dissatisfied do you feel with each
of the main political parties?
Don't know
The Conservative party
The Conservative party’s performance is most
strongly associated with predictability and
stability
•  But there are also some clear criticisms about the party’s perceived
lack of compassion related to its record on welfare cuts
David Cameron
Sentiment towards Cameron may be a little
cooler among swing voters than towards the
party, but is still more positive than negative
•  But while several voters praise his confidence and his stability, some
are more sceptical about his intentions
Satisfaction with David Cameron:
0%
50%
100%
He’s still solid. Showing confidence and
stability.
Conservative voters
Labour voters
His tactical approach shows why he guided
his party to victory.
SNP voters
Lib Dem voters
UKIP voters
Satisfied
Neutral
Disastified
As soon as he got into power he pulled off
all sorts of things that he should never
have been allowed to get away with…
Q. Thinking about their performance over the past four months, how satisfied or dissatisfied do you feel with each
of the main main party leaders?
The Labour party
The vast majority of panelists – including
Labour voters - are dissatisfied with
Labour’s performance since GE2015
•  The party trails behind the Conservatives, with overall satisfaction
34 percentage points lower than for the governing party
Overall satisfaction with the
Labour party:
7%
satisfied
Satisfaction according to previous vote:
0%
50%
100%
Conservative voters
Labour voters
SNP voters
Lib Dem voters
UKIP voters
Satisfied
Neutral
Dissatisfied
Q. Thinking about their performance over the past four months, how satisfied or dissatisfied do you feel with each
of the main political parties?
Don't know
The Labour party
And the words used to describe the party’s
performance over the past four months are
solely negative
•  In stark contrast to the Conservatives’ ‘predictability’ and
‘stability’, overwhelmingly, Labour’s performance is described by
our panel of swing voters as ‘poor’, ‘weak’ and ‘confused’
Harriet Harman
Views of Harriet Harman’s stint as interim
leader are marginally more positive than
views of the party
•  Some voters praise her for ‘trying’ and for her dignity and integrity,
while others criticise her for failing to be heard as the leadership
campaign has eclipsed everything else going on in the party
Satisfaction with Harriet Harman:
0%
50%
100%
She’s trying to keep things
together when the rest of her
party falls down around her.
Conservative voters
Labour voters
Has conducted herself with dignity
in a nigh on impossible role.
SNP voters
Lib Dem voters
To my knowledge, she hasn’t been
doing very much.
UKIP voters
Satisfied
Neutral
Dissatisfied
Don't know
Q. Thinking about their performance over the past four months, how satisfied or dissatisfied do you feel with each
of the main main party leaders?
SNP
Satisfaction with the SNP remains sky high
amongst swing voters from Glasgow East, while
English voters are more uncertain
•  Of all English panelists, past Labour voters are most likely to be
positive about the SNP’s performance – though several are negative
Overall satisfaction with the
SNP:
34%
satisfied
Satisfaction according to previous vote:
0%
50%
100%
Neutral
Dissatisfied
Don't know
Conservative voters
Labour voters
SNP voters
Lib Dem voters
UKIP voters
Satisfied
Q. Thinking about their performance over the past four months, how satisfied or dissatisfied do you feel with each
of the main political parties?
SNP
Associations with the SNP’s performance since
the election further emphasise the Scotland/
England split in views about the party
•  While for the Scots, the party has been ‘strong’ and ‘bold’, English
voters are most likely to describe the SNP as ‘quiet’ since GE2015
Nicola Sturgeon
Views of Nicola Sturgeon are even more
polarised than views of the SNP – but SNP
voters are overwhelmingly supportive of her
•  SNP voters and some Labour and Conservative voters in England
praise Sturgeon’s strength and determination
•  But most English voters are critical of her, perceiving her to put
Scotland’s agenda above the UK’s best interests as a whole
Satisfaction with Nicola Sturgeon:
0%
50%
100%
She’s excellent, there’s no stopping her.
Conservative voters
She was very ballsy about representing
Scottish rights on the back of the good
reputation she gained in the election, but
haven't heard much from her since.
Labour voters
SNP voters
Lib Dem voters
UKIP voters
Satisfied
Neutral
Disastified
Don't know
She’s still desperate to do anything to
divide Great Britain.
Q. Thinking about their performance over the past four months, how satisfied or dissatisfied do you feel with each
of the main main party leaders?
Perceptions of the candidates for
Labour leadership
Our panel of swing voters say that, of all the
candidates, they would be (marginally) most
likely to vote for Labour with Burnham in place
Likelihood of voting Labour with each candidate as leader…
Burnham
Corbyn
Cooper
Kendall
0%
10%
More likely
20%
30%
40%
No difference
50%
60%
70%
Less likely
Q. The Labour party are currently electing a new leader of the party. Thinking about each of the leadership
candidates in turn, how likely or unlikely would you be to vote for Labour with each as leader?
80%
90%
Don't know
100%
Jeremy Corbyn
Corbyn appeals most to past Labour and SNP
voters, and is best known for his ‘old-fashioned’
politics and values
•  But he is a turn off for most 2015 Lib Dem and Conservative voters
Likelihood of voting Labour with
Corbyn as leader:
0%
50%
Jeremy Corbyn in one word:
100%
Conservative voters
Labour voters
SNP voters
Lib Dem voters
UKIP voters
More likely
No difference
Less likely
Don't know
Q. The Labour party are currently electing a new leader of the party. Thinking about each of the leadership
candidates in turn, how likely or unlikely would you be to vote for Labour with each as leader?
Jeremy Corbyn
Corbyn is much easier for voters to define
than other candidates– but splits opinion
•  He is as likely to be described as ‘dangerous’ and ‘untrustworthy’
as he is ‘genuine’ and ‘compassionate’
Jeremy Corbyn
Voters’ biggest hopes for Corbyn relate to
equality and fairness
•  Though many also fear what a Corbyn win might mean for the
stability of the Labour party, and worry about his ability to stand
up to the Conservatives
Hopes for Jeremy Corbyn:
Fears for Jeremy Corbyn:
That he would change the way we run our
country and make it a fair and equitable
society in which everyone can flourish.
That the Labour Party fragments and the
country has years of Tory government.
To win and get rid of the old boy network
and stop austerity measures to help the
poorest people in the community.
That his Labour party colleagues will
destroy him.
That he would make his policies slightly
less left wing.
That he would be crushed by the
Conservatives whenever he took the floor
in the House of Commons.
Previous reports from our Battleground
Britain project, including full methodology
and fieldwork notes, are available on the
BritainThinks website:
britainthinks.com/battleground-britain
Guardian coverage:
theguardian.com/politics/series/battleground-britain
Revisiting the views of swing voters
ahead of the Labour leadership result
A survey of our ‘Battleground Britain’ panel
7th – 11th September 2015