Under embargo until 00:01 GMT, December 10th 2013
Manpower's labour market barometer for the first quarter of 2014:
Weakest hiring intentions since 2003
Fewer Norwegian employers plan to increase their staff in the first quarter of 2014. Hiring
is expected to proceed at a modest pace, however Norway´s Net Employment Outlook is
the weakest since the survey began in Norway 3Q 2003.
Norwegian employers report cautious hiring intentions for 1Q 2014. Of the 751 employers who
participated in the quarterly research, 5% are expecting to increase staffing levels, 3% are
anticipating a decrease and 92% are forecasting no change. When compared with the previous
quarter, employers report a 2 percentage point decline in the Net Employment Outlook. Hiring
prospects are 3 percentage points weaker year-over-year. Once the data has been adjusted to
allow for seasonal variation, the Outlook stands at +3% and is the weakest since the survey
began in 3Q 2003.
“It seems like we are entering a new year with a cautious attitude to increased staffing among
the employers. More are evidently putting their hiring plans on hold, and are sending signals
similar to that we measured last quarter,” says CEO of Manpower Group, Maalfrid Brath.
Construction sector most optimistic
Employers in seven of the nine industry sectors expect to increase staffing levels during 1Q
2014. The most optimistic hiring plans are reported in the Construction sector, with an expected
12 percent point increase. This is 4 percent points stronger than both last quarter and year-overyear.
- Although unemployment figures for the construction sector has increased during 4Q 2013, our
barometer is sending positive signals for the start of 2014, says Maalfrid Brath.
- This is the first time in ten years we have measured negative staffing plans within the transport
and logistics sector, meaning that there are more employers in the industry who say they will
downsize than upsize their staff. This may be related to major changes in the industry where
centralization and rationalization tendencies create lower staffing needs. Within the finance and
business sector there are more employers reporting that they are planning to increase staff than
reduce staff, we have never measured such low levels of staffing plans in this sector. It is evident
that the Norwegian employers especially in these industries are uncertain about the future
developments and have taken a wait and see attitude, says Brath.
Increase in five sectors compared to prior quarter
When compared with the previous quarter, employers report stronger hiring prospects in five of
the nine industry sectors. The Transport, Storage & Communication sector Outlook declines by
12 percentage points and a 10 percentage point decrease is reported in the Wholesale, Retail,
Restaurants & Hotels sector.
All regions still positive
Employers in all five regions in Norway expect to grow staffing levels by varying degrees during
the upcoming quarter. The most optimistic hiring plans are reported in Northern Norway where
the Net Employment Outlook stands at +7%. Employers in the Eastern region report an Outlook
of +6% and some payroll gains are forecast in both Mid Norway and Greater Oslo where
Outlooks stand at +4% and +2%, respectively.
Hiring intentions weaken in three of the five regions when compared with the previous quarter.
The most noteworthy declines are in Mid Norway and in Greater Oslo. Meanwhile, the Outlook is
stronger in both the Eastern and Northern regions.
When compared with 1Q 2013, the Outlook for the South/West declines by a considerable
margin of 10 percentage points and employers in Eastern Norway report a 4 percentage point
decrease. Elsewhere, the Northern Outlook is 3 percentage points stronger and employers
report no change in both Greater Oslo and Mid Norway.
- The figures show that employers in North Norway are the most positive by the year-end, they
believe in financial growth and higher recruitment needs, says Brath.
For further information, please contact:
Sven Fossum, Information Manager:
Tel.: 930 24 314, Email: [email protected]
International figures:
About the Manpower Employment Outlook Survey (MEOS)
Manpower's labour market barometer is drawn up on a quarterly basis and monitors employers' intentions
to either increase or reduce work force during the forthcoming quarter. It is one of the most comprehensive
labour market surveys conducted in respect of its size, scope, and the number of years during which it has
been in existence. It is unique in that it investigates employers' expectations about the forthcoming
quarter. The MEOS has been conducted for more than 50 years and is one of the most recognised labour
market barometers in the world. It is based on interviews conducted among a representative selection of
750 Norwegian employers and over 65,000 public and private employers in 42 different countries and
territories. The MEOS is regarded as being a recognised economic development indicator. The margins
for error do not exceed +/- 3.9 per cent. Norway’s margin of error—with a panel of 750 employers—is +/3.6%