Updates on Improved Poultry Data for
Modeling the Chesapeake Bay
Watershed
Jim Glancey
Department of Mechanical Engineering
U of D
The Chesapeake Bay Watershed
Chesapeake Bay Program Modeling (Predicting)
the Impact of the Food (Poultry) Industry
• EPA is using data from the
late 1980’s and early 1990’s
to estimate Nitrogen and
Phosphorous generation
from agriculture and our
food production system.
• Key questions:
– What are the current
predictions by the EPA
model?
– What would the model
estimates be if modern data
were used?
Case Study: Sussex County, Delaware
Summary of
Comparison
EPA/ASAE UD/DDA/UMD EPA - UD
Approach
Approach Difference units
43,620,576
0
No of Birds 43,620,576
birds produced daily (2007 census)
Total Nitrogen Produced 35,332,221 14,839,720 20,492,501 lbs Total N per year
Total Phosphorous Produced 8,818,067
5,103,607
3,714,460 lbs Total P per year
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Chesapeake Bay Program
Poultry Litter Sub-Committee Membership
Jim Glancey, chair UD
Jen Nelson
USDA NRCS
Mark Dubin
UM
Jerry Ours
WVDA
Emma Giese
CBPO
Paul Patterson
Penn State
Mark Davis
DDA
Jim Pease
VT
Tom Basden
WVU
Royden Powell
MDA
Bill Brown
UD
Tim Sexton
VA DCR
Glenn Carpenter USDA NRCS
Kelly Shenk
EPA
Frank Coale
UM
Trish Steinhilber
UM
Jason Dalrymple
WVDA
Jeff Sweeney
EPA
Doug Goodlander PA DEP
Jennifer Timmons UM
Matt Johnston
CBPO
Jennifer Weld
PSU
Bobby Long
VA DCR
Hank Zygumnt
Keith Campbell
Committee Motivation & Charge
• EPA modeling group is using the 2003 ASAE
Standard to estimate Nitrogen and Phosphorous
generation from animal agriculture.
• The Standard is based on caged bird studies from
the late 1980’s and early 1990’s.
• Poultry Sub-Committee Charge:
– Collect data that better reflects modern N and P
generation from animal agriculture
– Develop better estimates for poultry populations
– Make recommendations to AgWG for better modeling
N and P generation within the watershed
Our Interest
How much N and P is being generated within
the Bay watershed from the poultry industry?
Pounds of N = (lbs N/lbs litter) x (lbs litter/bird) x (#birds)
(concentration) (generation) (population)
Litter = bird excretion plus bedding material (saw dust)
Typical Data Set - Delaware
Nutrient Content and Volume
Generated - Chickens
Parameter
Value
Time Range
2006 to 2011
No. of Data
3696
Avg. TN Concentration 57.1 lbs/ton
TN Range*
55.4 to 60.3 lbs/ton
Avg. TP Concentration
20.1 lbs/ton
TP Range*
17.9 to 21.3 lbs/ton
Moisture Content
30.1 % w.b.
Moisture Content
Range*
28.0 to 32.1 % w.b.
Manure Generation
1.5 tons/1000 birds
Manure Generation
Range
0.5 to 4.6
tons/1000 birds
* Based on annual averages
Comments
• All manure samples analyzed
by the DDA laboratory.
• Bird sizes: 60% roasters, 40%
broilers.
• Average bird weight = 7.1 lbs.
• Manure generation based on
a total of 702 poultry house
cleanouts or crustouts (Ray
Ellis).
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Nutrient Concentration
10
DDA Lab Analysis of Poultry Manure
2005 through 2011
No.
Year
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
Samples
462
589
522
472
721
649
743
4158
(total No.
of samples)
Total N
%
2.93
2.77
2.86
2.83
2.77
2.88
3.02
2.86
lbs/ton
58.6
55.4
57.2
56.6
55.5
57.5
60.3
57.3
Phosphate (P2O5)
lbs
%P2O5 P2O5/ton
2.23
44.7
2.05
41.1
2.36
46.4
2.35
48.5
2.24
44.7
2.46
49.2
2.45
48.9
2.31
46.2
averages
Total P
%P
0.98
0.90
1.03
1.02
0.98
1.07
1.07
1.01
lbs P/ton
19.5
17.9
20.2
21.1
19.5
21.5
21.3
20.2
Comparison Across the Watershed – Chickens
2006-2012
Parameter
N Generation
P Generation
Units
lbs/1000 birds
lbs/1000 birds
Delmarva
84.9
29.8
Virginia
88.8
18.8
West Virginia
61.0
20.0
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Phosphorous
Concentration Trend
60.0
Delmarva
Slope not equal to zero
(Greater than 95% confidence)
P2O5 in litter (lbs per ton)
50.0
40.0
30.0
20.0
10.0
0.0
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
Year
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
Poultry Population
14
Current Method to Model Poultry
Populations within the Watershed
• Based on the 5 year Ag
Census data.
• For 2007, the population
shown is the 2007 census
number.
• Apply an escalation factor,
f, to estimate subsequent
years.
• f ~ 1%
Annual Production (x10^6)
• Most recent census in
2007.
Delaware-Chickens
258
256
254
252
250
EPA
Model
Model
248
246
244
2007
2008
2009
2010
Year
2011
2012
Potential Data Sources for
Population Estimates
(Birds per year)
Delaware
Year
Census
NASS Placements* NASS Production
NASS Slaughter
2012
?
215,987,000
212,000,000
309,147,000
2011
?
223,589,000
217,800,000
302,305,000
2010
?
243,035,000
235,000,000
304,471,000
2009
?
243,572,000
231,700,000
296,595,000
2008
?
245,505,000
242,900,000
304,657,000
2007
246,098,878
257,973,000
245,800,000
306,875,000
* Includes an early mortality factor
• NASS = National Agricultural Statistics Service
• NASS has recommended using the Production data.
Delaware-Chickens
260
Annual # of Birds (x10^6)
255
250
245
Model
240
NASS Production
235
Corrected Census
230
225
220
215
2007
2008
2009
2010
Year
2011
2012
Litter Volume Generation
Litter Generation Estimates
• University of Delaware ..... 1.25 tons per 1000 birds
• University of Maryland ….. 1.0 tons per 1000 birds
• Penn State …………………….. 20 lbs per 1000 lbs of birds
1.07 tons per 1000 small birds
1.65 tons per 1000 large birds
• Arkansas ……………………….. 1.025 tons per 1000 birds
• NRAES …………………………… 1.25 tons per 1000 birds
• Alabama ……………………….. 0.6 lbs per lb of meat produced
(~ 1.7 tons per 1000 birds)
Current Status
• Delaware, Maryland, Virginia, West Virginia, and
Pennsylvania have summarized state data & are
writing a report.
• Other states have much less data than Delaware.
• The U.S. Poultry and Egg Association is trying obtain
data from the poultry industry for other states.
• Chesapeake Bay Program (CBP) is requiring the
report to be ‘peer reviewed’ before adoption.
– Reviewed by individuals outside the watershed.
– Then approved by three CBP committees.
Current Status: Pilot Projects *
• Several manure to energy
• Filtering N and P from CAFO runoff.
• Removing composted poultry mortalities from
the litter waste stream.
• Reclamation and reuse of poultry mortality
and processing wastes.
* - need estimates from CBP model to evaluate
potential impacts on water quality.
Poultry Waste Reclamation Project
DDA, Greener Solutions LLC, and UD
Current State
Future State
Poultry Farm
Production
Poultry Farm
Production
Feed
Blender
Biofuel
Producer
Mortality
Composting
Compost
Land
Application
Useful
Nutrient
Absorption
Mortality
Preservation
& Collection
Feedstock
Commodities
Reclamation
Solids
Irrigation
WATERSHED
RUNOFF
Municipal
System
Water
Treatment
Irrigation
Questions?
Comments?
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Comparison Across the Watershed – Chickens
2006-2012
Wet Basis
Parameter
Total N
Total P
Manure
Generation
Moisture
Units
lbs/ ton
lbs/ton
lbs/1000
birds
%
Delmarva
Virginia
West Virginia
57
20
71
15
61
20
2,990
30
2,500
27
2,000
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Dry Basis
Parameter
Total N
Total P
Manure
Generation
Units
lbs/ ton
lbs/ton
lbs/1000
birds
Delmarva
Virginia
West Virginia
81
29
97
21
91
30
2086
1,825
1,340
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DDA Lab Analysis of Poultry Manure
2005 through 2011
No.
Year
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
Samples
462
589
522
472
721
649
743
4158
(total No.
of samples)
Total N
%
2.93
2.77
2.86
2.83
2.77
2.88
3.02
2.86
lbs/ton
58.6
55.4
57.2
56.6
55.5
57.5
60.3
57.3
Phosphate (P2O5)
lbs
%P2O5 P2O5/ton
2.23
44.7
2.05
41.1
2.36
46.4
2.35
48.5
2.24
44.7
2.46
49.2
2.45
48.9
2.31
46.2
averages
Total P
%P
0.98
0.90
1.03
1.02
0.98
1.07
1.07
1.01
lbs P/ton
19.5
17.9
20.2
21.1
19.5
21.5
21.3
20.2
Summary of Poultry Data Sets
Across the Watershed
• Delmarva
• Chickens
• Data Sets: 1996-1999, 2000-2005, 2006-2011
• Virginia:
• Chickens, Turkeys
• Data Sets: 2001-2005, 2006-2012
• West Virginia
• Chickens, Layers, Pullets, Turkeys
• Data Sets: 1996-1999, 2000-2005, 2006-2012
• Overall
• 21 data sets summarizing over 8000 data
points within the watershed.
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