Mid-Ohio Regional Planning Commission
November 13, 2014
What is insight2050?
• Public-Private
Partnership
• To provide actionable
information to Central
Ohio stakeholders
• Not a regional plan
Why insight2050?
Regional Growth, 1990-2050
28% Pop 26% Jobs
2010-2050
2,500,000
32% Pop 32% Jobs
1990-2010
2,339,000
2,260,800
2,108,700
2,000,000
1,958,750
1,823,600
1,500,000
1,581,050
1,377,400
1,339,500
1,152,050
1,000,000
1,405,250
1,449,000
1,234,650
1,109,000
Population
Jobs
873,900
500,000
1990
2000
2010
2020
2030
2040
2050
Regional Scenario Studies
“
You know where you are.
The question now is:
Where are you going? And
that’s what insight2050 is
all about – pick your
future. What is the most
efficient investment?
People don’t get to see
that until they do these
scenario studies.”
~Peter Calthorpe
State of the Region 2014
Four Scenarios
Past
Trends
Local
Plans
• Ignore market demand
• Build same types of homes as in past
• Follow community plans
• Some infill and redevelopment
Focused
Growth
• Housing type meets future demand
• More infill and redevelopment
Maximum
Infill
• Housing type meets future demand
• All possible infill and redevelopment
Regional Housing Demand
Housing
Needs by
Home Type
2010-2050
Redevelopment Opportunities
Past nonresidential
development
Tomorrow’s
infill and
redevelopment
Compact Places
Lancaster
Dublin
Clintonville, Columbus
Marysville
Future Impacts
Land Consumed
Square Miles of Greenfield Land Developed: 2010-2050
500
Cumulative Reduction from Scenario A by 2050
2010: 1,000 sq. miles
225 sq. miles
450 sq. miles
480 sq. miles
400
300
495
200
225
270
100
0
A
A
Trends
B
B
Plans
sq. miles
45
15
C
C
D
D
Focus
Max Infill
Vehicle Miles Traveled
Regional passenger miles, Annual (2050)
VMT (Billions)
Annual Reduction from Scenario A in 2050
18.0
2010: 12
- Billion
0.5 billion
3.9 billion
4.9 billion
16.0
-3.4 bill
14.0
miles
12.0
2010: ~12B
10.0
8.0
15.9
15.4
6.0
12.0
11.1
C
C
D
D
4.0
2.0
0.0
AA
Trends
B
B
Plans
Focus
Max Infill
Fuel Cost
Passenger Vehicle Fuel, 2010-2050 (@ $5/Gallon)
Cumulative Reduction from Scenario A by 2050
$ Billions
$120
$2.7 billion
-
$18.5 billion
$22.7 billion
$115
$110
$105
$100
$95
$116.0
$90
$113.3
$85
$97.5
$80
$93.3
$75
$70
2014 Dollars
A
Trends
B
Plans
C
C
Focus
D
D
Max Infill
Household Costs
Transportation and Home Energy/Water Use, New Households, Annual (2050)
Reduction from Scenario A in 2050
$15,000
-
$1,450
$5,350
$6,250
$13,000
$11,000
$9,000
$13,050
$11,600
$7,000
$7,700
$6,800
$5,000
2014 Dollars
A
A
B
B
CC
Trends
Plans
Focus
DD
Max Infill
Local Infrastructure & Service Costs
Capital and Operations & Maintenance Costs for New Growth, 2010-2050
$ Billions
$18
Cumulative Reduction from Scenario A by 2050
-
$605 million
$3.2 billion
$3.3 billion
$16
$14
$4.4
Capital
$4.5
$12
$3.2
$3.0
$10.0
$10.0
D
D
$10
$8
$6
$12.0
Operations &
Maintenance
$11.3
$4
2014 Dollars
A
BB
CC
Trends
Plans
Focus
Max Infill
Local Infrastructure & Service Costs
Capital and Operations & Maintenance Costs for New Growth, 2010-2050
$ Billions
$18
Average Annual Reduction from Scenario A by 2050
-
$15 million
$79 million
$83 million
$16
$14
$4.4
Capital
$4.5
$12
$3.2
$3.0
$10.0
$10.0
D
D
$10
$8
$6
$12.0
Operations &
Maintenance
$11.3
$4
2014 Dollars
A
BB
CC
Trends
Plans
Focus
Max Infill
Local Revenues per Acre
From New Residential and Commercial Development, 2010-2050
Cumulative Difference from Scenario A by 2050
$500,000
$55,000
-
$181,000
$442,000
$450,000
$400,000
$350,000
$300,000
$250,000
$474,000
$200,000
$150,000
$213,000
$100,000
$50,000
$0
2014 Dollars
$32,000
A
Trends
$87,000
BB
Plans
CC
Focus
DD
Max Infill
Scenarios Report
insight2050 takeaways
Provides guidance and data to understand potential
impacts of different planning decisions:
• Government resources & expenditures
• Transportation use & cost
• Public health
A catalyst for conversations about the future of your
community:
• Strategic planning
• Land use & zoning
• Economic development
insight2050 Resolution
“To utilize the data and key trends
resulting out of the insight2050 project
for MORPC, regional, and local
planning activities.”
Central Ohio is successful today.
Let’s make sure it will be successful
30 years from now.
WILLIAM MURDOCK
[email protected]
111 Liberty Street, Suite 100
Columbus, Ohio 43215
614.233.4102
www.morpc.org
www.morpc.org/insight2050