02:33 Monday, August 30, 2010
Grizzly Bear Project - Coastal Sites - invci
Food production variables
The PRINCOMP Procedure
Observations 17
Variables
4
Simple Statistics
PRECIP
ndvi
aet
temp
Mean 262.7684591 109.3498765 355.9600991 0.703488235
StD
122.1066269
14.9411373
54.4875248
2.106259674
Correlation Matrix
PRECIP
ndvi
aet
temp
PRECIP
1.0000
ndvi
-.1485 1.0000 0.4442 0.3075
aet
0.3579 0.4442 1.0000 0.6875
temp
0.7998 0.3075 0.6875 1.0000
-.1485 0.3579 0.7998
Eigenvalues of the Correlation Matrix
Eigenvalue Difference Proportion Cumulative
1 2.34376199
1.13176793
0.5859
0.5859
2 1.21199406
0.83541453
0.3030
0.8889
3 0.37657953
0.30891511
0.0941
0.9831
0.0169
1.0000
4 0.06766442
1
02:33 Monday, August 30, 2010
Grizzly Bear Project - Coastal Sites - invci
Food production variables
The PRINCOMP Procedure
Eigenvectors
foodprod1 foodprod2 foodprod3 foodprod4
PRECIP
0.488900
-.560894
0.302601
0.595657
ndvi
0.268833
0.773259
0.520249
0.243187
aet
0.541019
0.268031
-.771579
0.200306
temp
0.629288
-.125009
0.206007
-.738871
2
02:33 Monday, August 30, 2010
3
Grizzly Bear Project - Coastal Sites - invci
First 2 principal components scores
2
Tweedsmuir
Grid - 2007
Grid - 2005
Kimdean
1
Second component for productivity score
Grid - 2006 N
Grid - 2006 S
Grid - 2004
South Coast
0
Taku
Kingcome
Gmu 9b
Owikeno
Khutzeymateen
-1
Stikine
Unuk-Bradfield
-2
Berners Bay
-3
-3
-2
-1
0
First component for productivity score
1
2
3
02:33 Monday, August 30, 2010
4
Grizzly Bear Project - Coastal Sites - invci
Plot of density_corrected vs first food production principal component score
90
Khutzeymateen
80
70
Berners Bay
Grizzly Bear Density
60
50
Taku
Gmu 9b
Kingcome
Kimdean
Stikine
40
Unuk-Bradfield
30
Owikeno
Tweedsmuir
20
Grid - 2006 N
Grid - 2007
Grid - 2004
10
Mid Coast Mainlan
South Coast
Grid - 2005
Grid - 2006 S
0
-3
-2
-1
0
First component for productivity score
1
2
3
02:33 Monday, August 30, 2010
5
Grizzly Bear Project - Coastal Sites - invci
Plot of density_corrected vs first food production principal component score
90
Khutzeymateen
80
70
Berners Bay
Grizzly Bear Density
60
Taku
50
Gmu 9b
Kimdean
Kingcome
Stikine
40
Unuk-Bradfield
30
Owikeno
Tweedsmuir
20
Grid - 2006 N
Grid - 2007
Grid - 2004
10
South Coast
Mid Coast Mainlan
Grid - 2005
Grid - 2006 S
0
-3
-2
-1
0
Second component for productivity score
1
2
02:33 Monday, August 30, 2010
Grizzly Bear Project - Coastal Sites - invci
Model selection results - Tobit Model - invci
Obs model
n _p_ _aicc_ delta_aicc aicc_weight
1 Temp_T25_salmon_Hum
17
6
176.5
0.0
0.432
2 Temp_T25_salmon
17
5
179.2
2.7
0.111
3 T25_salmon
17
4
179.4
2.9
0.102
4 Temp_T25_salmon_LHum
17
6
179.7
3.2
0.088
5 T25
17
3
181.1
4.6
0.044
6 AET_T25_salmon_Hum
17
6
182.0
5.5
0.028
7 Temp_T25_salmon_LHum_IG2006S
17
7
182.1
5.6
0.026
8 NDVI_salmon
17
4
182.3
5.8
0.024
9 Temp_T25_salmon_Hum_IG2006S
17
7
182.6
6.0
0.021
10 NDVI_T25_salmon
17
5
182.8
6.3
0.019
11 AET_T25_salmon
17
5
182.8
6.3
0.019
12 H50_T25_salmon_Hum
17
6
182.9
6.4
0.018
13 Prcp_Temp_H50_T25_salmon_Hum
17
8
183.3
6.8
0.014
14 AET_T25_salmon_LHum
17
6
184.0
7.5
0.010
15 Prcp_NDVI_Temp_salmon_Hum
17
7
184.1
7.6
0.010
16 H50_T25_salmon_LHum
17
6
184.2
7.6
0.009
17 NDVI_T25
17
4
184.5
8.0
0.008
18 Prcp_NDVI_Temp_T25_salmon_Hum
17
8
186.9
10.4
0.002
19 Prcp_NDVI_H50_T25
17
6
187.6
11.0
0.002
20 Prcp_NDVI_Temp_H50_T25_Hum
17
8
187.6
11.1
0.002
21 NDVI_H50_T25_salmon
17
6
187.7
11.2
0.002
22 Prcp_NDVI_AET_salmon_Hum
17
7
188.0
11.4
0.001
23 Prcp_NDVI_H50_T25_LHum_I1
17
8
188.1
11.6
0.001
24 Prcp_NDVI_H50_T25_Hum
17
7
188.3
11.8
0.001
25 Prcp_Temp_H50_T25_salmon_LHum
17
8
189.0
12.5
0.001
6
02:33 Monday, August 30, 2010
Grizzly Bear Project - Coastal Sites - invci
Model selection results - Tobit Model - invci
Obs model
n _p_ _aicc_ delta_aicc aicc_weight
26 Prcp_NDVI_H50_T25_LHum
17
7
189.5
12.9
0.001
27 NDVI_Temp_H50_T25_salmon_Hum
17
8
189.8
13.3
0.001
28 Prcp_NDVI_H50_T25_I1
17
7
190.8
14.2
0.000
29 Prcp_NDVI_Temp_salmon_LHum
17
7
190.8
14.2
0.000
30 Prcp_NDVI_Temp_H50_T25_LHum
17
8
191.2
14.7
0.000
31 Prcp_NDVI_Temp_T25_salmon_LHum
17
8
191.3
14.8
0.000
32 Prcp_NDVI_AET_salmon_LHum
17
7
191.3
14.8
0.000
33 Prcp_NDVI_H50_T25_Hum_I1
17
8
191.4
14.9
0.000
34 Prcp_NDVI_Temp_H50_salmon_Hum
17
8
191.7
15.2
0.000
35 Prcp_NDVI_Temp_H50_T25_salmon_Hum
17
9
192.7
16.2
0.000
36 NDVI_Temp_H50_T25_salmon_LHum
17
8
192.9
16.4
0.000
37 Prcp_NDVI_H50_T25_salmon_Hum
17
8
193.8
17.3
0.000
38 Prcp_NDVI_AET_T25_salmon_Hum
17
8
193.8
17.3
0.000
39 Prcp_AET_H50_T25_salmon_Hum
17
8
193.9
17.4
0.000
40 GLOBAL_Prcp_NDVI_Temp_AET_H50_T25_salmon_Hum
17
10
194.6
18.0
0.000
41 NDVI_AET_H50_T25_salmon_Hum
17
8
194.6
18.1
0.000
42 Prcp_NDVI_AET_H50_salmon_Hum
17
8
195.3
18.8
0.000
43 Prcp_NDVI_AET_H50_T25_Hum
17
8
195.7
19.2
0.000
44 Prcp_NDVI_Temp_H50_T25_salmon
17
8
195.9
19.4
0.000
45 Prcp_AET_H50_T25_salmon_LHum
17
8
196.0
19.5
0.000
46 Prcp_NDVI_AET_T25_salmon_LHum
17
8
196.0
19.5
0.000
47 Prcp_NDVI_H50_T25_salmon_LHum
17
8
196.0
19.5
0.000
48 Prcp_NDVI_AET_H50_T25_LHum
17
8
197.0
20.5
0.000
49 NDVI_AET_H50_T25_salmon_LHum
17
8
197.1
20.6
0.000
50 Prcp_NDVI_Temp_H50_salmon_LHum
17
8
197.9
21.4
0.000
7
02:33 Monday, August 30, 2010
Grizzly Bear Project - Coastal Sites - invci
Model selection results - Tobit Model - invci
Obs model
n _p_ _aicc_ delta_aicc aicc_weight
51 Prcp_NDVI_AET_H50_salmon_LHum
17
8
198.4
21.9
0.000
52 Prcp_NDVI_Temp_H50_T25_salmon_LHum
17
9
198.7
22.2
0.000
53 Prcp_NDVI_AET_H50_T25_salmon
17
8
199.9
23.4
0.000
54 GLOBAL_Prcp_NDVI_Temp_AET_H50_T25_salmon_LHum 17
10
202.7
26.1
0.000
55 Prcp_NDVI_AET_H50_T25_salmon_Hum
17
9
203.5
27.0
0.000
56 Prcp_NDVI_AET_H50_T25_salmon_LHum
17
9
205.7
29.2
0.000
8
02:33 Monday, August 30, 2010
Grizzly Bear Project - Coastal Sites - invci
Model selection results - Tobit Model - invci
Obs Intercept PRECIP
ndvi
temp
aet
herb50
tree25 SALMON_AVG hum_den _Sigma
1
74.552
.
.
3.4681
.
. -1.02306
19.6229
2
75.434
.
.
2.8432
.
. -1.18361
25.4833
. 10.8187
3
59.699
.
.
.
.
. -0.98080
38.4461
. 12.1342
4
66.678
.
.
2.8550
.
. -1.04412
15.2745
.
5
85.834
.
.
.
.
. -1.17949
.
6
41.388
.
.
.
0.07360
. -0.94663
28.8508
-10.5552
11.1801
7
66.380
.
.
3.2376
.
. -1.01427
19.8010
.
9.7449
8
115.362
. -1.03670
.
.
.
.
60.6463
. 12.6401
9
74.394
.
.
3.4671
.
. -1.02458
19.9020
10
81.789
. -0.34775
.
.
. -0.70176
43.8962
. 11.8402
11
50.102
.
.
0.05003
. -1.08956
33.7844
. 11.8718
.
Obs model
log_hum_den
-11.3104
9.8322
9.9535
. 13.8473
-10.8866
9.8408
ISti IG2006S aicc_weight
1 Temp_T25_salmon_Hum
.
.
.
0.432
2 Temp_T25_salmon
.
.
.
0.111
3 T25_salmon
.
.
.
0.102
-3.08221
.
.
0.088
5 T25
.
.
.
0.044
6 AET_T25_salmon_Hum
.
.
.
0.028
-2.02565
.
-76.0290
0.026
8 NDVI_salmon
.
.
.
0.024
9 Temp_T25_salmon_Hum_IG2006S
.
.
-35.1344
0.021
10 NDVI_T25_salmon
.
.
.
0.019
11 AET_T25_salmon
.
.
.
0.019
4 Temp_T25_salmon_LHum
7 Temp_T25_salmon_LHum_IG2006S
9
02:33 Monday, August 30, 2010
Grizzly Bear Project - Coastal Sites - invci
Model selection results - Tobit Model - invci
Obs Intercept PRECIP
ndvi
temp
.
.
. -0.38629 -0.96255
46.5935
-11.0219
11.4239
. 11.2658
. -0.89545 -1.77943
37.2058
-17.4161
8.3815
12
78.613
.
13
183.707
-0.15036
14
41.997
.
15
167.083
16
68.486
.
.
17
80.668
.
18
130.327
19
20.877
0.05785
20
151.009
-0.11843
21
81.541
. -0.35040
22
104.960
0.01873 -0.79720
aet
.
.
0.04624
-0.10278 -1.20035
6.4067
.
herb50
tree25 SALMON_AVG hum_den _Sigma
. -0.94136
23.6975
.
.
49.2044
.
. -0.30918 -0.97135
36.0746
. 11.1732
0.06975
.
.
. -1.23002
.
. 13.8529
-0.09539 -0.35559
8.0521
.
. -0.94742
22.7178
.
.
0.43309 -1.08895
.
. -0.38529 -1.70842
.
0.24262
0.12484 10.6282
Obs model
.
.
. -0.03076
0.00700 -0.69642
.
. 11.1087
-14.1006
-13.0202
49.9407
log_hum_den
9.1188
. 11.9047
-20.5269
43.7347
.
10.2095
9.2801
. 11.8407
-11.6120
11.1447
ISti IG2006S aicc_weight
12 H50_T25_salmon_Hum
.
.
.
0.018
13 Prcp_Temp_H50_T25_salmon_Hum
.
.
.
0.014
-3.14344
.
.
0.010
.
.
.
0.010
-3.40902
.
.
0.009
17 NDVI_T25
.
.
.
0.008
18 Prcp_NDVI_Temp_T25_salmon_Hum
.
.
.
0.002
19 Prcp_NDVI_H50_T25
.
.
.
0.002
20 Prcp_NDVI_Temp_H50_T25_Hum
.
.
.
0.002
21 NDVI_H50_T25_salmon
.
.
.
0.002
22 Prcp_NDVI_AET_salmon_Hum
.
.
.
0.001
14 AET_T25_salmon_LHum
15 Prcp_NDVI_Temp_salmon_Hum
16 H50_T25_salmon_LHum
10
02:33 Monday, August 30, 2010
Grizzly Bear Project - Coastal Sites - invci
Model selection results - Tobit Model - invci
Obs Intercept PRECIP
ndvi
temp
aet
herb50
tree25 SALMON_AVG hum_den _Sigma
23
87.990
0.05258
0.39880
.
. -0.71484 -1.79917
.
.
9.1181
24
35.155
0.05725
0.11123
.
.
0.30223 -0.85890
.
-12.4457
11.2685
25
149.907
-0.12138
.
9.0688
. -0.68001 -1.65065
29.2846
.
8.9064
26
27.246
0.04952
0.22411
.
27
83.773
.
0.05055
28
55.741
0.06233
29
0.17906 -1.02552
.
3.4449
. -0.21348 -1.15263
24.9508
0.34963
.
. -0.03005 -1.56837
.
. 11.1510
140.108
-0.07601 -1.11673
4.0811
.
.
44.9613
. 11.0236
30
115.670
-0.09191
0.25315
8.5969
. -0.34220 -1.74405
.
.
9.5201
31
100.123
-0.07343 -0.09911
6.6937
.
. -1.16066
13.8593
.
9.4679
32
103.502
0.02056 -0.75571
. -0.06935
.
.
44.0219
. 11.3245
33
81.674
0.06013
.
. -0.31764 -1.44212
.
0.24771
Obs model
23 Prcp_NDVI_H50_T25_LHum_I1
24 Prcp_NDVI_H50_T25_Hum
.
.
log_hum_den
. 11.0259
-11.8027
-18.0983
9.7697
10.1583
ISti IG2006S aicc_weight
-5.01518 -52.3810
.
0.001
.
.
.
0.001
25 Prcp_Temp_H50_T25_salmon_LHum
-3.62124
.
.
0.001
26 Prcp_NDVI_H50_T25_LHum
-3.35055
.
.
0.001
27 NDVI_Temp_H50_T25_salmon_Hum
.
.
.
0.001
28 Prcp_NDVI_H50_T25_I1
. -31.6201
.
0.000
29 Prcp_NDVI_Temp_salmon_LHum
-3.82337
.
.
0.000
30 Prcp_NDVI_Temp_H50_T25_LHum
-3.84253
.
.
0.000
31 Prcp_NDVI_Temp_T25_salmon_LHum
-3.14869
.
.
0.000
32 Prcp_NDVI_AET_salmon_LHum
-3.58826
.
.
0.000
. -37.9344
.
0.000
33 Prcp_NDVI_H50_T25_Hum_I1
11
02:33 Monday, August 30, 2010
Grizzly Bear Project - Coastal Sites - invci
Model selection results - Tobit Model - invci
Obs Intercept PRECIP
ndvi
temp
6.4653
34
169.521
-0.10462 -1.21202
35
197.889
-0.15961 -0.24537 11.3263
36
65.957
37
.
aet
herb50
. -0.02310
tree25 SALMON_AVG hum_den _Sigma
.
50.1961
-14.2049
10.2091
. -0.86031 -1.55627
41.9653
-17.1263
8.3042
0.22636
3.1687
. -0.20713 -1.33738
15.8597
.
9.8814
68.085
0.03267 -0.18929
.
. -0.06067 -0.69024
34.0771
-10.4768
10.7021
38
63.587
0.03200 -0.19417
.
0.00667
. -0.67352
31.9400
-10.3914
10.7031
39
55.614
0.03633
.
0.01044 -0.08869 -0.88468
30.0909
-10.5272
10.7378
40
333.125
-0.23470 -0.49128 18.6224 -0.21405 -1.38060 -1.54911
60.0296
-21.6254
6.3867
41
79.992
. -0.38539
42.3002
-10.8060
10.9155
42
88.592
0.02370 -0.73436
. -0.02448
0.19808
.
41.3232
-11.0725
11.0819
43
30.327
0.04994
0.12322
.
0.28468 -0.92163
.
-12.4024
11.2335
44
129.998
-0.08979
0.00385
7.5351
. -0.35874 -1.59667
32.4145
.
.
0.04021 -0.14092 -0.61437
0.02681
Obs model
log_hum_den
. 10.2617
ISti IG2006S aicc_weight
34 Prcp_NDVI_Temp_H50_salmon_Hum
.
.
.
0.000
35 Prcp_NDVI_Temp_H50_T25_salmon_Hum
.
.
.
0.000
-3.21440
.
.
0.000
37 Prcp_NDVI_H50_T25_salmon_Hum
.
.
.
0.000
38 Prcp_NDVI_AET_T25_salmon_Hum
.
.
.
0.000
39 Prcp_AET_H50_T25_salmon_Hum
.
.
.
0.000
40 GLOBAL_Prcp_NDVI_Temp_AET_H50_T25_salmon_Hum
.
.
.
0.000
41 NDVI_AET_H50_T25_salmon_Hum
.
.
.
0.000
42 Prcp_NDVI_AET_H50_salmon_Hum
.
.
.
0.000
43 Prcp_NDVI_AET_H50_T25_Hum
.
.
.
0.000
44 Prcp_NDVI_Temp_H50_T25_salmon
.
.
.
0.000
36 NDVI_Temp_H50_T25_salmon_LHum
12
02:33 Monday, August 30, 2010
Grizzly Bear Project - Coastal Sites - invci
Model selection results - Tobit Model - invci
Obs Intercept PRECIP
ndvi
45
54.397
0.03573
.
46
50.537
0.03701
47
49.846
48
27.181
49
temp
aet
herb50
tree25 SALMON_AVG hum_den _Sigma
. -0.01504 -0.06289 -0.87121
24.0462
. 10.6746
0.00061
. -0.01447
. -0.84741
22.0404
. 10.6835
0.03285
0.03100
.
. -0.06343 -0.92661
22.7946
. 10.6802
0.04943
0.22430
.
0.00035
0.17886 -1.02641
.
. 11.0256
68.577
. -0.21058
.
0.02357 -0.15548 -0.78839
33.3011
. 10.9475
50
114.718
-0.05741 -0.99111
3.6067
51
80.226
0.02754 -0.66975
52
149.382
-0.12106
0.00952
53
50.403
0.03945
0.00477
54
279.262
.
0.26094
.
34.0247
. 10.9620
. -0.05763
0.28478
.
32.2253
. 11.2318
. -0.68183 -1.65943
29.1200
.
0.12571 -0.94610
27.6885
. 11.4679
-0.19280 -0.24597 16.0739 -0.21079 -1.19073 -1.62880
48.3258
.
9.0689
. -0.00928
Obs model
log_hum_den
8.9076
7.1578
ISti IG2006S aicc_weight
45 Prcp_AET_H50_T25_salmon_LHum
-3.15745
.
.
0.000
46 Prcp_NDVI_AET_T25_salmon_LHum
-3.11490
.
.
0.000
47 Prcp_NDVI_H50_T25_salmon_LHum
-3.14525
.
.
0.000
48 Prcp_NDVI_AET_H50_T25_LHum
-3.34998
.
.
0.000
49 NDVI_AET_H50_T25_salmon_LHum
-3.24931
.
.
0.000
50 Prcp_NDVI_Temp_H50_salmon_LHum
-3.52570
.
.
0.000
51 Prcp_NDVI_AET_H50_salmon_LHum
-3.30344
.
.
0.000
52 Prcp_NDVI_Temp_H50_T25_salmon_LHum
-3.62202
.
.
0.000
.
.
.
0.000
-4.15443
.
.
0.000
53 Prcp_NDVI_AET_H50_T25_salmon
54 GLOBAL_Prcp_NDVI_Temp_AET_H50_T25_salmon_LHum
13
02:33 Monday, August 30, 2010
Grizzly Bear Project - Coastal Sites - invci
Model selection results - Tobit Model - invci
Obs Intercept PRECIP
ndvi
temp
aet
herb50
tree25 SALMON_AVG hum_den _Sigma
55
66.484
0.03116 -0.18257
.
0.00666 -0.06062 -0.70792
33.6538
56
53.520
0.03614
. -0.01470 -0.06555 -0.88537
23.7728
0.01470
Obs model
55 Prcp_NDVI_AET_H50_T25_salmon_Hum
56 Prcp_NDVI_AET_H50_T25_salmon_LHum
log_hum_den
-10.4997
10.6999
. 10.6763
ISti IG2006S aicc_weight
.
.
.
0.000
-3.15871
.
.
0.000
14
Grizzly Bear Project - Coastal Sites - invci
Model averaged predictions
Obs Name
Model
averaged
pred
Year
density
1 Berners Bay
2006
49.3606
2 Gmu 9b
2000
52.9504
3 Grid - 2004
2004
18.8494
4 Grid - 2005
2005
6.4354
5 Grid - 2006 N
2006
23.2761
6 Grid - 2006 S
2006
1.4670
7 Grid - 2007
2007
4.2832
8 Khutzeymateen
1991
60.5682
9 Kimdean
1999
39.6283
10 Kingcome
1997
43.0676
11 Mid Coast Mainland Only 2009
4.0706
12 Owikeno
1998
22.1526
13 South Coast
2004
15.0953
14 Stikine
2004
57.7434
15 Taku
2003
42.2838
16 Tweedsmuir
1993
16.8708
17 Unuk-Bradfield
2005
48.4863
02:33 Monday, August 30, 2010
15
02:33 Monday, August 30, 2010
Grizzly Bear Project - Coastal Sites - invci
Predictions from best Tobit model - invci - Temp_T25_salmon_Hum
Obs Name
Type Year Bias Density_corrected
temp
Predicted
value
Residual
of
of
tree25 SALMON_AVG hum_den Density_corrected Density_corrected
1 Berners Bay
T
2006 L
64.2
0.7004 27.9875
0.3055
0.36
50.2709
13.9291
2 Gmu 9b
M
2000 U
47.8 -2.5858 27.7715
0.71
0.03
50.7649
-2.9649
3 Grid - 2004
T
2004 U
11.5
1.6229 58.9867
0.4399
0.84
18.9645
-7.4645
4 Grid - 2005
T
2005 U
3.1
1.1769 69.1284
0.2869
0.42
8.7902
-5.6902
5 Grid - 2006 N
T
2006 U
15.7 -1.5997 48.1021
0.3055
0.2
23.5251
-7.8251
6 Grid - 2006 S
T
2006 U
2.6339 73.0069
0.3817
3.94
0.0000
0.0000
7 Grid - 2007
T
2007 U
13.6 -2.0093 61.5285
0.222
0.54
2.8845
10.7155
8 Khutzeymateen
T
1991 H
86.6
3.0000 35.0380
0.78
0.02
64.1897
22.4103
9 Kimdean
T
1999 L
43.6
0.1970 46.4423
0.64
0.01
40.1672
3.4328
10 Kingcome
M
1997 U
46.6
3.4459 51.1945
0.69
0.04
47.2148
-0.6148
11 Owikeno
T
1998 L
20.4
2.9625 62.6548
0.29
0.01
26.3038
-5.9038
12 South Coast
T
2004 L
10
1.6877 58.7690
0.265
0.83
16.0930
-6.0930
13 Stikine
M
2004 U
39.3 -2.1250 17.7584
0.37
0.01
56.1614
-16.8614
14 Taku
T
2003 L
57.5 -0.9552 35.3403
0.3421
0
41.7966
15.7034
15 Tweedsmuir
T
1993 L
20.1 -1.3011 64.5460
0.64
0.05
15.9980
4.1020
16 Unuk-Bradfield
T
2005 L
34.6
1.5643 36.8356
0.5271
0.06
51.9564
-17.3564
17 Mid Coast Mainland Only M
2009 L
6.8
3.5439 86.2164
0.38
0.01
5.9813
0.8187
0
16
02:33 Monday, August 30, 2010
17
Grizzly Bear - Coastal Model
Residual plot from best model fitted using the Tobit model - invci
temp tree25 salmon_avg hum_den
30
Khutzeymateen
20
Taku
Residual
10
0
-10
Stikine
Unuk-Bradfield
-20
0
10
20
30
40
Predicted Grizzly Bear Density
50
60
70
02:33 Monday, August 30, 2010
18
Grizzly Bear - Coastal Model
Residual plot from best model fitted using the Tobit model - invci
temp tree25 salmon_avg hum_den
30
20
Residual
10
0
-10
-20
0
100
200
300
Average Precipitation
400
500
02:33 Monday, August 30, 2010
19
Grizzly Bear - Coastal Model
Residual plot from best model fitted using the Tobit model - invci
temp tree25 salmon_avg hum_den
30
20
Residual
10
0
-10
-20
-3
-2
-1
0
1
Average Temperature
2
3
4
02:33 Monday, August 30, 2010
20
Grizzly Bear - Coastal Model
Residual plot from best model fitted using the Tobit model - invci
temp tree25 salmon_avg hum_den
30
20
Residual
10
0
-10
-20
20
30
40
50
Proportion of pixels with >50% herb coverage
60
70
80
02:33 Monday, August 30, 2010
21
Grizzly Bear - Coastal Model
Residual plot from best model fitted using the Tobit model - invci
temp tree25 salmon_avg hum_den
30
20
Residual
10
0
-10
-20
0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
Livestock density
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.9
02:33 Monday, August 30, 2010
22
Grizzly Bear - Coastal Model
Residual plot from best model fitted using the Tobit model - invci
temp tree25 salmon_avg hum_den
30
20
Residual
10
0
-10
-20
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
Amount of salmon
0.6
0.7
0.8
02:33 Monday, August 30, 2010
23
Grizzly Bear - Coastal Model
Residual plot from best model fitted using the Tobit model - invci
temp tree25 salmon_avg hum_den
30
20
Residual
10
0
-10
-20
0
1
2
Human density
3
4
02:33 Monday, August 30, 2010
Grizzly Bear - Coastal Model
Normal q-q plot. Careful about points near zero
The CAPABILITY Procedure
Variable: Resid_Density_corrected (Residual of Density_corrected)
Moments
N
17 Sum Weights
17
Mean
0.01988027
Sum Observations 0.33796458
Std Deviation
10.9057398
Variance
118.93516
Skewness
0.40940525
Kurtosis
-0.1429552
Uncorrected SS 1902.96929 Corrected SS
1902.96257
Coeff Variation 54857.1024 Std Error Mean
2.64503042
Basic Statistical Measures
Location
Mean
Variability
0.01988 Std Deviation
10.90574
Median -0.61475 Variance
Mode
118.93516
. Range
39.76672
Interquartile Range
10.19504
Tests for Location: Mu0=0
Test
Statistic
Student's t
t
Sign
M
Signed Rank S
p Value
0.007516
Pr > |t|
0.9941
-1 Pr >= |M| 0.8036
-5 Pr >= |S|
0.8209
24
02:33 Monday, August 30, 2010
Grizzly Bear - Coastal Model
Normal q-q plot. Careful about points near zero
The CAPABILITY Procedure
Variable: Resid_Density_corrected (Residual of Density_corrected)
Quantiles (Definition 5)
Quantile
Estimate
100% Max
22.41031620
99%
22.41031620
95%
22.41031620
90%
15.70335125
75% Q3
4.10204101
50% Median
-0.61475454
25% Q1
-6.09300073
10%
-16.86138604
5%
-17.35640156
1%
-17.35640156
0% Min
-17.35640156
Extreme Observations
Lowest
Highest
Value Obs
Value Obs
-17.35640156
16
4.10204101
15
-16.86138604
13 10.71553806
7
-7.82507194
5 13.92910591
1
-7.46449382
3 15.70335125
14
-6.09300073
12 22.41031620
8
25
02:33 Monday, August 30, 2010
26
Grizzly Bear - Coastal Model
Normal q-q plot. Careful about points near zero
30
Residual of Density_corrected
20
10
0
-10
-20
-2
-1
0
Normal Quantiles
1
2
02:33 Monday, August 30, 2010
27
Grizzly Bear - Coastal Model
Observed vs predicted for best model fitted using the tobit model - invci
temp tree25 salmon_avg hum_den
200
Observed corrected density
150
100
Khutzeymateen
Taku
50
Stikine
Unuk-Bradfield
0
0
50
100
Predicted Grizzly Bear Density
150
200
02:33 Monday, August 30, 2010
28
Grizzly Bear - Coastal Model
Observed vs predicted for best model fitted using the tobit model - invci - ci from observed overlaid
temp tree25 salmon_avg hum_den
200
Observed corrected density
150
100
50
0
0
50
100
Predicted Grizzly Bear Density
150
200
02:33 Monday, August 30, 2010
29
Grizzly Bear - Coastal Model
Observed vs predicted for best model fitted using the tobit model - invci - ci on predicted overlaid
temp tree25 salmon_avg hum_den
200
Observed corrected density
150
100
50
0
0
50
100
Predicted Grizzly Bear Density
150
200
02:33 Monday, August 30, 2010
Grizzly Bear - Coastal Model
Best model predictions and prediction limits - data used in fitting - invci
temp tree25 salmon_avg hum_den
Obs NAME
Density_corrected MY_PRED MY_PRED_SEP MY_LCL MY_UCL
1 Berners Bay
64.2
50.2709
11.3996
27.4717
73.0701
2 Gmu 9b
47.8
50.7649
11.0686
28.6277
72.9020
3 Grid - 2004
11.5
18.9645
10.9536
-2.9428
40.8718
4 Grid - 2005
3.1
8.7902
10.4791
-12.1680
29.7483
5 Grid - 2006 N
15.7
23.5251
10.3032
2.9188
44.1314
6 Grid - 2006 S
0
0.0000
29.2874
-86.6517
30.4978
7 Grid - 2007
13.6
2.8845
10.5873
-18.2902
24.0591
8 Khutzeymateen
86.6
64.1897
11.2631
41.6635
86.7158
9 Kimdean
43.6
40.1672
10.4611
19.2449
61.0894
10 Kingcome
46.6
47.2148
11.0613
25.0922
69.3373
6.8
5.9813
12.3528
-18.7243
30.6868
20.4
26.3038
11.4159
3.4720
49.1356
10
16.0930
10.8747
-5.6565
37.8425
14 Stikine
39.3
56.1614
11.3593
33.4429
78.8799
15 Taku
57.5
41.7966
10.6443
20.5080
63.0853
16 Tweedsmuir
20.1
15.9980
11.6610
-7.3240
39.3199
17 Unuk-Bradfield
34.6
51.9564
10.5474
30.8615
73.0513
11 Mid Coast Mainland Only
12 Owikeno
13 South Coast
30
02:33 Monday, August 30, 2010
31
Grizzly Bear - Coastal Model
Approximate 95% prediction limits from best Tobit model - invci
temp tree25 salmon_avg hum_den
200
Observed corrected density
150
100
Khutzeymateen
Taku
50
Stikine
Unuk-Bradfield
0
0
50
100
Prediced corrected density
150
200
02:33 Monday, August 30, 2010
32
Grizzly Bear - Coastal Model
Compare model averaged vs best model predictions
70
60
Model averaged corrected density
50
40
30
20
10
0
0
10
20
30
40
Best model corrected density
50
60
70
02:33 Monday, August 30, 2010
Grizzly Bear - Coastal Model
APPROXIMATE leverage plots
Based on min aicc model: temp tree25 salmon_avg hum_den
The REG Procedure
Model: MODEL1
Dependent Variable: Density_corrected
Number of Observations Read
17
Number of Observations Used
17
Analysis of Variance
Source
Sum of
Squares
DF
Mean
Square F Value Pr > F
Model
4 7674.23154
1918.55789
Error
12 1900.30375
158.35865
Corrected Total
16 9574.53529
12.12
Root MSE
12.58406
R-Square 0.8015
Dependent Mean
30.67059
Adj R-Sq 0.7354
Coeff Var
41.02974
0.0004
Parameter Estimates
Parameter Standard
Estimate
Error t Value Pr > |t|
Variable
DF
Intercept
1
66.37255
15.44834
4.30
0.0010
temp
1
3.66032
1.76620
2.07
0.0604
tree25
1
-1.03482
0.21303
-4.86
0.0004
SALMON_AVG
1
35.77544
19.15314
1.87
0.0864
hum_den
1
-4.12955
3.64135
-1.13
0.2789
33
Grizzly Bear - Coastal Model
APPROXIMATE leverage plots
Based on min aicc model: temp tree25 salmon_avg hum_den
The REG Procedure
Model: MODEL1
Dependent Variable: Density_corrected
02:33 Monday, August 30, 2010
34
Grizzly Bear - Coastal Model
APPROXIMATE leverage plots
Based on min aicc model: temp tree25 salmon_avg hum_den
The REG Procedure
Model: MODEL1
Dependent Variable: Density_corrected
02:33 Monday, August 30, 2010
35
Grizzly Bear - Coastal Model
APPROXIMATE leverage plots
Based on min aicc model: temp tree25 salmon_avg hum_den
The REG Procedure
Model: MODEL1
Partial Regression Residual Plot
02:33 Monday, August 30, 2010
36