Market Report
March 4, 2015
U.S.D.A. World Market Price:
World Market Price
Value Factors
This week
03/04/14
Long Grain
Medium Grain
Short Grain
Brokens
US Prices:
To be
issued
Mar. 4
8:30am ET
Last week
02/25/14
15.61
15.22
15.22
9.42
1 Year Ago
0/05/14
17.89
17.53
17.53
12.26
LDP
00.00
00.00
00.00
-
2014 Loan
Factors
10.25
9.63
9.63
6.18
WMP and Loan Rates
’14 crop
L/G
M/G
Yield
WMP
Loan
Difference
57.21/12.55
10.11
6.64
(3.47)
61.89/8.83
10.25
6.51
(3.74)
(Shipment: May/June in the South; California AprilMay)
Southern U.S. - Long Grain
Abbreviation
U.S. #2 Long Grain, max. 4% Broken, Hard Milled
U.S. #2 Long Grain, max. 4% Broken, Hard Milled
U.S. #2 Long Grain, max. 4% Broken, Hard Milled
U.S. #2 Long Grain, max. 4% Broken, Hard Milled
U.S. #2 Long Grain, max. 4% Broken, Hard Milled
U.S. #3 Long Grain, max. 15% Broken, Hard Milled
U.S. #3 Long Grain, max. 15% Broken, Hard Milled
U.S. #2 Long Grain Brown, max. 4% Broken, 75% yield
U.S. #1 Parboiled L/G Brown, max. 4% Broken, 88% yield
U.S. #1 Parboiled L/G MILLED, max. 4% Broken
U.S. #1 Parboiled L/G MILLED, max. 4% Broken
U.S. #2 Long Grain Paddy, 55/70 yield
Long Grain, max. 20% broken, Hard milled (Ghana specs)
U.S. #5 L/G, max. 20% broken, WELL MILLED
#2/4%
#2/4%
#2/4%
#2/4%
#2/4%
#3/15
#3/15
#2/4/75
#1/4/88
#1/4 Parb
#1/4 Parb
#2 55/70
#4/20/hm
#5/20/wm
Quote
Basis
$22.00
$22.00
$23.00
$540.00
N/A
$21.50
$530.00
N/A
N/A
N/A
$560.00
$260.00
N/A
N/A
per cwt. sacked, F.A.S. U.S. Gulf
per cwt, BULK, FOB Vessel US Gulf
per cwt. containerized FOB US Gulf
per mt sacked delivered Laredo TX
per cwt sacked delivered Miami FL
per cwt. sacked, F.A.S. U.S. Gulf
per mt sacked delivered Laredo TX
per mt bulk FOB vessel NOLA
per mt bulk FOB vessel NOLA
per mt sacked FOB vessel NOLA
per mt bulk FOB vessel NOLA
per mt bulk F.O.B. vessel NOLA
per cwt. sacked, F.A.S. U.S. Gulf
per cwt. sacked, F.A.S. U.S. Gulf
#2/4% $625.00
#2 58/69 $375.00
per mt bulk FOB Mill
per mt bulk FOB vessel NOLA
Southern U.S. - Medium Grain
U.S. #2 Medium Grain, max. 4% broken, Hard Milled
U.S. #2 Medium Grain Paddy, 58/69 yield
Southern U.S. - Package Quality
Package Quality Parboiled L/G, max. 4% broken
Package Quality Long Grain Milled, max. 4% broken
Package Quality Long Grain Milled, max. 4% broken (select variety)
Package Quality Long Grain Brown Rice, max. 4% broken
Package Quality Medium Grain Milled, max. 4% broken
Pkg. Parb.
Pkg. L/G
Pkg. L/G
Pkg. Br.
Pkg. M/G
$23.75
$21.75
25.00-26.00
$25.25
$27.50
#1/4
#1/4
#1/7%
#3 Brown
#2 58/69
$870.00
$980.00
$850.00
$815.00
$590.00
per cwt. bulk F.O.B. mill
per cwt. bulk F.O.B. mill
per cwt. bulk F.O.B. mill
per cwt. bulk F.O.B. mill
per cwt. bulk F.O.B. mill
California - Medium Grain
U.S. #1 Medium Grain, max. 4% Broken (Med)
U.S. #1 Medium Grain, max. 4% Broken (Korea Specs, add $20 for 10kg)
U.S. #1 Medium Grain milled rice, except max. 7% Broken (Japan Specs)
U.S. #3 Medium Grain Brown rice, max. 8% broken (Korea Specs)
U.S. #2 Medium Grain Paddy, 58/69 yield
per mt sacked 25kg containerized FOB Mill
per mt sacked 20kg, container CIP Oakland
per mt sacked in 1mt tote bags FOB vessel
per mt in 40kg bags containerized Oakland
per mt bulk ex-spout Sacramento CA
California - Package Quality
Package Rice for Industrial Use and Repackers
#1/4% 37.00-39.00
per cwt. bulk F.O.B. Mill
U.S. South Brokens:
Flour Quality brokens
Pet Food Quality / #4 Brewers (milled)
Flour Qlty $19.00
pet food $17.50
per cwt. bulk, F.O.B. rail
per cwt. bulk, F.O.B. rail
Flour Qlty 25.50-28.00
spot mkt $19.00
per cwt. bulk, F.O.B. mill
per cwt. bulk, F.O.B. mill
U.S. California Brokens:
Flour Quality brokens
Pet Food Quality / #4 Brewers
(tight supplies)
Creed Rice Market Report
Copyright © 2015 Creed Rice. Co., Inc. All Rights reserved
800 Wilcrest, Suite 200 • Houston, Texas 77042 • USA
March 4, 2015 - Page 1 of 4
www.RiceOnline.com
email: [email protected]
ph. +1-713-782-3260 • fax +1-713-782-4671
Far East Report
SOUTHEAST ASIAN MARKETS
Finally, there is actually something to talk about in the
market, as Thailand sold The Philippines 200,000 MT
at the tail end of last week. The government sold NFA
100,000 MT of 15% at $441 delivered inland warehouse,
and 100,000 MT of 25% at $421 per MT delivered inland
warehouse for end April latest arrival (the balance was
sold by Vietnam…see Viet section for details). In sharp
contrast to the previous purchase last year, Thailand set
the market by selling first.
In sympathy for the recent strengthening of the Baht, quotes are
up about $5.00 per MT. In reality, the market is basically unchanged,
as this is certainly not enough volume to have any effect on driving
the market one way or another. The business has long since been
factored into the overall equation and it is more of a relief than a
stimulus.
100% B is quoted at $415-420 per MT FOB Bangkok; 5% is $400405, and parboil is actually off slightly at $407, as Nigerian demand
has settled down somewhat and favored cheaper Indian rice.
The next business of any consequence will be Iraq, once IGB floats
a new tender, whenever that might be. It is anybody’s guess which
direction they will go…no clear cut vision as to origin or origins.
Also, two Japanese trading houses bought a total of 14,856 MT of
Thai L/G against the Feb. 24 MMA tender.
In the meantime, the government is still holding 17-18 MMT
of intervention rice, some of which is not suitable for human
consumption…we understand about 3 MMT.
Otherwise, the African market is quiet, as Thailand is averaging
only about 500,000 MT of exports per month in 2015.
This market is sluggish, bearish, depressed or whatever other
negative adjective one would have attached to it.
In Vietnam, as aforementioned above, Vinafood also
sold NFA. They sold 150,000 MT of 15% at $441 per
MT delivered inland warehouse and 150,000 MT of 25%
at $421. As we pointed out in the Thai segment, it was
Vietnam that met the Thai offer as opposed to vice versa.
Like Thailand, this was not really a “shot in the arm” for the
market; moreover a relief. So far during the first two months (Jan/
Feb) of 2015 crop year, Vietnam has exported a mere 515,000 MT
which is almost 35% behind last year’s pace.
However, prices have reacted in the wake of this NFA business (up
$10-15 per MT), with 5% quoted at $365-370 per MT FOB HCMC;
25% is $335-340.
Further, the government has begun their “purchase program” for
1 MMT of paddy rice out of the Spring/Winter (main season) crop,
in an effort to support prices locally for the farmers.
Whereas the Chinese have slowed down their
purchases of fragrant rice following the conclusion of
the Chinese New Year holidays, they have been buyers of
brokens which has tightened the brokens supply in both
Vietnam and Thailand.
Otherwise, the overall market undertone is still soft even though
prices have rallied a bit on the NFA business.
Thailand Exports
Preliminary unofficial rice exports (excluding
premium white and fragrant rice) from
January 1 – February 22, 2015, totaled 499,444 metric tons,
up 9 percent from the same period last year.
US Dollar to Thai Baht exchange 1 : 32.3425
INDIA and PAKISTAN
As the Indian government (FCI) continues its buffer
stock procurement program with a goal of 30 MMT,
exporters are concerned that stocks in Thailand will drive
down prices and cut into Indian market share, principally
in West Africa. The initial export forecast was around 10 MMT in
the wake of a season that saw 10.4 MMT last year. Now the estimates
are reflecting more like 8.5-9 MMT…perhaps lower depending on
how aggressive the Thai government gets with their stocks.
Prices, at present, are off slightly with IR-64 5% quoted at $385390 per MT FOB Kakinada; 25% is around $350-355.
The undertone has definitely shifted from steady to trending
softer.
In Pakistan, the market is quiet, amid limited demand.
Exporters have dropped their prices in an attempt to
attract what little business there is out there. China is
not actively buying whole grain, so sales are pretty much
reduced to core markets in East Africa, along with the usual basmati
trade, which has shrunk as well with Iran out of the market.
IRRI-6 5% is quoted at $335 per MT FOB Karachi; 25% is $315
and brokens $280.
The undertone of the market is bearish, but seems to be nearing a
bottom. Once again, Thai stocks effect all origins in Asia.
OFFSHORE QUOTES
Thailand
Vietnam
India
Pakistan
Uru.
Arg.
Brazil
100%B
$420.00
5%
$360.00
5%
$405.00
10%
$355.00
5%
$385.00
5%
$335.00
N/A
N/A
10%
$400.00
15%
$34500
10%
N/A
10%
$330.00
N/A
N/A
15%
$395.00
25%
$335.00
15%
N/A
15%
$325.00
N/A
N/A
25%
$375.00
Brokens
$310.00
25%
$350.00
25%
$315.00
IR64 PB 5%
$390.00
Parb 5%
$380.00
N/A
N/A
Brokens
$325.00
1121 parboil
$1000
Parb 15%**
N/A
Uru Parb
parb-mill
Parb. 100B sorted
$407.00
Pusa parboil
$1050
Brokens
$280.00
Brown 5%
$575.00
Thai Hom Mali
$910.00*
Traditional
$1350
Basmati
N/A
parb-brwn
Pusa
$1200
S. Kernal
Frag. Brokens
$345.00
MEP-25%
$360.00
$550.00
Brokens
$980.00
$525.00
All prices basis U.S. dollars per metric ton, FOB vessel, corresponding home port *New Crop **Bangladesh Specs, Brazil prices basis Bulk FOB vsl
Creed Rice Market Report
Copyright © 2015 Creed Rice. Co., Inc. All Rights reserved
800 Wilcrest, Suite 200 • Houston, Texas 77042 • USA
March 4, 2015 - Page 2 of 4
www.RiceOnline.com
email: [email protected]
ph. +1-713-782-3260 • fax +1-713-782-4671
CME Group Rough Rice Futures (03/02/2015 Volume: 489 Open Interest: 9,125)
Contract
Month
Net Change From
Tuesday’s Settle
Price
Monday
Prices
Last Report
One Year Ago 03/04/14
‘15 Mar
$10.360
Down
0.175
Down
0.085
‘14 Mar
$15.260
‘15 May
$10.625
Down
0.170
Down
0.085
‘14 May
$15.430
‘15 July
$10.875
Down
0.170
Down
0.085
‘14 July
$15.430
‘15 Sep
$11.035
Down
0105
Up
0.040
‘14 Sep
$14.070
‘15 Nov
$11.245
Down
0.060
Up
0.085
‘14 Nov
$13.990
‘16 Jan
$11.380
Down
0.055
Up
0.130
‘15 Jan
$14.035
U.S. Paddy Market Report
Texas - Long grain traded this past week at prices ranging $4.85 $5.25 per cwt over loan depending on vartiety.
Louisiana - Long grain bids are unchanged at $10.80-$11.00 per cwt
FOB farm depending on variety.
Mid South - Poor winter weather last week continued to keep the
market very quiet. The bid/asked on long grain barges basis per cwt
CIF NOLA is unchanged at $11.00/11.50
California - Still no change. No new trading reported. The last price
indications from buyers were $16.00 per cwt over loan or lower, while
some sellers are asking only $20.00. The last reported trades were
$17.50 per cwt over loan.
Reflective Prices (all basis per cwt FOB country 2014 crop)
Texas
Louisiana
Mid-South
California
Long grain
11.00-11.50
$10.80-11.00
$10.00b/$11.00a
*
Med Grain
*
$14.00
$15.00
$24.00
L/G is #2 55/70, M/G is #2 58/69 (California #1)
* - These areas do not have sufficient supplies of this type to quote.
U.S. Report
U.S. GULF, MERCOSUR, & FUTURES
The market conditions are basically unchanged with prices
flat, even though we have raised our quotes on page one which
is more in line with the Colombian business. That takes us
to about April 15, whereby most of the mills are operating at
or near full capacity. Late April and May forward are flush with open
milling time and price has yet to be discovered due to resistance by the
grower to lower values along with the mills reluctance to raise their prices
as they don’t see the demand to support it.
As regards Colombia, it seems as though the buying is over from the
U.S. until the next TRQ tender. Now, we will likely see Colombia limit
their buying from licensed fellow Andean pact nations…most notably
Ecuador, and perhaps Peru (even though they are a net importer).
As mentioned in the Thai segment, IGB has yet to float a fresh tender;
consequently, at this stage, it is not something the mills can solidly count
on with conviction enough to take paddy positions.
When Iraq failed to buy U.S. on the last tender, the U.S. market took
on a very bearish tone. Then Colombia came along, which we all knew
would take 63,000 MT via TRQ, but no one had any idea they would buy
three times that amount, most of which with full tariff. At the end of
the day, I see the market approaching another crossroads as we reach the
April 15 (Mendoza line)…the time at which most all of the
Colombian shipments will be a thing of the past.
There is the Haitian business to fall back on, but this
provides barely half of the commodity type export business
the industry needs to stay busy.
In the meantime, crops are beginning to be harvested in
South America and will be ready to compete with the U.S. for shipment
April/May.
Old crop futures continue their downward trend, falling another
$0.85 this past week.
The bottom line: If the U.S. can garner a reasonable amount of Iraq
business on the next tender (40-60,000 MT), the market will stabilize.
If not, look for prices to fall with zero Colombia to bail them out…a
frightful alternative, to say the very least.
CALIFORNIA, AUSTRALIA, and the “MED”
First of all, recent rains in the greater Northwest have helped some,
but not nearly enough to even begin a conversation about emerging from
this record drought. We continue to get reports that water allocations to
growers may be cut in some areas up to 50-75%. This does not
bode well for planting intentions.
As far as new business is concerned, Korea confirmed
44,000 MT on their tenders last week…22,000 MT of Chinese
S/G brown, and 22,000 MT of M/G California brown (see page
4 for details).
As far as Japan is concerned, they held an SBS tender March
3 for a total of 91,610 MT of various qualities and origins, of
which California sold only 76 MT, and Japan bought a total
of only 216 MT. Remember this is SBS, and the numbers can
be skewed a bit by the nature of the tendering process. At some point in
time, they will buy the balance.
Cash prices are flat for the most part. The undertone is neither bullish
nor bearish as tight supplies have been offset by relatively high prices,
which has deterred business opportunities in places like the
South Pacific and the Mediterranean.
No changes in what we reported last week about Australia.
Creed Rice Market Report
Copyright © 2015 Creed Rice. Co., Inc. All Rights reserved
800 Wilcrest, Suite 200 • Houston, Texas 77042 • USA
March 4, 2015 - Page 3 of 4
www.RiceOnline.com
email: [email protected]
ph. +1-713-782-3260 • fax +1-713-782-4671
Upcoming Tenders:
USDA Export Sales Highlights
Mar. 6 Thailand auction to sell 1 million tons of govt intervention
Sales
(for the period February 13-19, 2015)
stocks.
Net sales of 95,400 MT for 2014/2015 were down 3 percent from
the previous week, but up 20 percent from the prior 4-week average.
Increases were reported for:
Japan Mexico Saudi Arabia Haiti Jordan Tenders Results:
Feb. 19 AARQ Notice of open tender. Results pending.
Feb 25 Korea tenders to buy:
22,000mt of global short grain brown (016) bought Chinese origin at
$870.00 per MT CIP
22,000mt of global medium grain brown (017) bought USA origin at
$856.00 per MT CIP
(48,200 MT)
(16,200 MT)
(8,100 MT)
(7,400 MT)
(5,200 MT)
Exports
Exports of 93,700 MT were up noticeably from the previous week
and from the prior 4-week average. The primary destinations were:
Mar. 3 KCCO tender to buy 8150mt of rice (AMENDED):
1000mt #5/20% medium grain well milled
7150mt #2/7% long grain parboiled well milled
Results Pending
Mar. 3 Japan SBS tender for 88,610mt whole kernel rice and 3,000mt of
brokens, from various origins.
Bought only 216mt
36mt USA non-glutinous short grain brown rice
40mt USA non-glutinous medium grain brown rice
40mt Thailand non-glutinous long grain milled rice
100mt Chinese non-glutinous broken milled rice
Mexico Colombia Haiti Jordan Canada Source: USDA
(38,200 MT)
(27,500 MT)
(20,900 MT)
(2,200 MT)
(1,500 MT)
Mar. 4 Taiwan tender to buy 3500mt of global origin brown rice (formerly Australian CSQ), inv. GF4-103122-3. Results Pending.
Mar. 3 Philippines tender bought 200,000mt of Thai long grain and
300,000mt of Vietnamese long grain, prices for both origins were $441 per
mt CIF for 15% and $421.00 per mt CIF for the 25%.
Upcoming Events:
June 2-4 Rice Market & Technology Convention
Moon Palace Golf & Spa Resort, Cancun, Mexico.
Rice Co-Products - Spot market prices basis $ per short ton bulk, FOB mill (spot prices, not deferred)
Texas
Louisiana
Arkansas
California
Bran:
$85
$75-100
$100-120
$160-$200
Mill Feed:
$40
$45
$50
-
Ground Hulls:
$5-10
$10
$15
-
Unground Hulls:
$5-10
$10
$10
Contracts $5-8 Spot $15-25
Creed Rice Co. Inc. 800 Wilcrest Suite 200 Houston, Texas 77042 USA
Ph 1.713.782.3260 Fax 1.713.782.4671 www.RiceOnline.com email: [email protected]
Brokers • Consultants • Market Reports • Arbitrators
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advice, statement, or information in this Report shall be at user and/or reader’s sole risk. Creed Rice reserves the right but not the obligation, in its sole discretion, to correct any errors or omissions in any portion of the Report.
Creed Rice Market Report
Copyright © 2015 Creed Rice. Co., Inc. All Rights reserved
800 Wilcrest, Suite 200 • Houston, Texas 77042 • USA
March 4, 2015 - Page 4 of 4
www.RiceOnline.com
email: [email protected]
ph. +1-713-782-3260 • fax +1-713-782-4671