housing
agency
Housing Supply Requirements
in Ireland’s Urban Settlements
2014 - 2018
Overview
April 2014
an average of
16,000 units per annum
are required across
urban settlements
(2014-2018)
An average of
7,500 units per annum
are required in
the urban settlements
In the Dublin Region
(2014-2018)
Approach Overview
The following short summary provides an overview of the urban settlements
analysis undertaken by Future Analytics Consulting on behalf of the Housing
Agency, to forecast future housing supply requirements in the Republic of
Ireland’s principal urban settlements for the period 2014 to 2018, inclusive1.
The principal purpose of this research was to determine the level of projected
housing supply required in urban settlements over the next 5 years and in doing
so, to identify the areas where housing pressures may arise. It is important to note
that the study does not consider delivery-side aspects. Identified requirements are
based on projections of natural population growth and inter-regional migration and
yearly figures are not cumulative, rather they assume that housing requirements
in any previous year have been met. Therefore, the study does not address any
issue of ‘pent up’ housing demand. On this basis, all projected figures should be
viewed as a minimum requirement for that year.
A total of 272 urban settlements have been modelled. These were defined on the
basis of having a resident population of 1,000 persons or more, as per the latest
census. Collectively these settlements account for approximately two-thirds of the
national population. The defined boundaries for these settlements encompass the
legal boundaries for the five cities, five boroughs and the 75 statutory towns, as
well as the census definition for ‘urban’ settlements2 (population clusters exhibiting
specific spatial and urban criteria, including settlements where urban
development has expanded beyond the statutory boundary).
The applied methodology examines proportional household composition to
inform future projections and determine how housing units over the study period
will be occupied to influence supply requirements.
1 The baseline population figures used have been derived from the 2011 CSO Census and as such, the study also rolls forward projections
for 2012 and 2013.
Page 1
2 Census towns criteria as specified in Census 2011 Appendix 1, p152, CSO, 2011.
http://www.cso.ie/en/media/csoie/census/documents/census2011vol1andprofile1/Volume1,,Appendices.pdf
Population
Projection
Intercensal
Trends
Household
Composition
Housing
Supply
Requirement
Vacancy Rates
Housing
Stock
Obsolescence
Modelling Overview
The modelling exercise was underpinned by a number of key assumptions3.
1 | Firstly, the population projections (incorporating births, deaths and migration
aspects) are based on the CSO M2F2 ‘Traditional’ Regional Projections4, which
are considered more moderate in their outlook, than other M2F2 scenarios.
2 | Proportional Household Composition was used as an alternative to average
household size to determine how housing units over the study period will be
occupied. Composition trends are adjusted annually on the basis of county and
city-based historical trends (an assessment of change over the intercensal periods
2002-2006 and 2006-2011).
3 | Specific city and regional vacancy rates were provided by the Housing Agency5.
4 | An obsolescence rate of 0.5% per annum was applied to the housing stock (2011
base), which reflects commonly held market assumptions.
Further details on the modelling process can be found in Appendix 1.
3 Any specified changes in the identified assumptions will invariably result in different projected outcomes.
4 Regional Population Projections, Central Statistics Office Release, Published 12th December 2013.
5 Defined vacancy rates for: Dublin & Mid-East (7%), Border & West (14%), Other Regions (11%), Cities (7-10%) and Other Urban Centres (10%).
Page 2
Key Findings
Urban Settlements Nationally
The assessment of 272 urban settlements identifies a total6 required supply of
79,660 residential units across these areas to support the population between
2014 and 2018, an average equivalent of 15,932 units per annum over the 5 year
period. The per annum requirement across all these settlements ranges from
9,526 units in 2014 to 20,853 units in 2018.
25k
25k
15k
10k
5k
0
17.1k
19.4k
20.9k
12.8k
9.5k
2014
National Urban Settlements
2015
2016
2017
2018
(Annual) Housing Supply Requirement
Average Housing Supply Requirement 2014-2018
(>1000 People)
Urban Settlements Within The Dublin Region
47% (37,581 units) of total supply over the 5 year period is required across the Dublin
Region’s urban settlements, as defined in the table below. The figures show there
is an immediate supply requirement of 5,663 units in 2014, which rises to a per
annum requirement of 8,970 units in 2018. Notably, requirements are not confined
to the defined Dublin City and Suburbs area. There is a marked requirement for
units in areas such as Swords (1,448 units between 2014-2018) and Balbriggan (925
units between 2014-2018). The research also projects the potential household
composition of future requirements. It shows that 57%7 of all households in the
Dublin Region will be for one and two person households, while three person
households account for a further 18%. Therefore, three quarters of all households
over this period will be for three people or less.
25k
25k
15k
10k
5k
5.7k
0
Urban Settlements (>1000 People)
In The Dublin Region
Page 3
2014
6.6k
2015
7.8k
8.6k
9k
2016
2017
2018
(Annual) Housing Supply Requirement
Average Housing Supply Requirement 2014-2018
6 This figure effectively treats all the identified settlements as one settlement, and does not take account of individual variations within and
across settlements.
7 Of this the period averages of 25.4% are one person households and 31.6% two person households.
Other Urban Settlements
Total Housing Supply Requirement (2014 - 2018)
10k
9k
8k
7k
6k
5k
4k
4.4k
3k
2.3k
2k
2.6k
0.74k
1k
0.78k
0
Cork City
& Suburbs
Galway City
& Suburbs
Limerick City
& Suburbs
Waterford City
& Suburbs
Kilkenny Town
Outside of Dublin, the study identifies varying requirements across the other
principle cities. In Cork City and suburbs, there will be a housing supply
requirement of 268 units in 2015, rising to a per annum requirement of 1,469 units
in 2018. There are close parallels in identified requirements in Galway and
Limerick. Both cities will experience a shortfall in housing requirements in 2015 and
require a total of 2,316 and 2,635 units respectively over the subsequent 4 years to
2018. Based on projected population growth, Waterford will have a supply
requirement from 2017 (total of 739 units to 2018). Kilkenny has an immediate
supply shortfall, which extends to a yearly average figure of 156 units between
2014-2018.
Total Housing Supply Requirement (2014 - 2018)
10k
9k
8k
7k
6k
5k
4k
3k
2k
1k
1.28k
0.49k
0.53k
0.32k
0.48k
Killarney
Clonmel
0
Drogheda
Athlone
Ennis
Elsewhere, trends highlight that some areas are adequately catered for, while
other areas are evidently not. There are pronounced requirements in settlements
such as Drogheda Town (1,284 units) and Dundalk (1,088 units) over the next 5
years. Athlone has an identified requirement of 492 units over the same period,
Ennis, a requirement of 534 units, while Edenderry in Offaly has a requirement of
292 units. In Kerry, Killarney is the only settlement with an immediate requirement,
an average of 64 units per annum are required between 2014-2018. This total
outstrips identified requirements in places such as Enniscorthy and Tramore.
Page 4
Appendix I
Housing Requriement Modelling Methodology
Stage
1
Historic Housing & Household Characteristics
Historic census data (2011) on population, the number of households and the
existing housing stock in each settlement were adopted as base figures, upon
which further assessments would be made.
The modelling utilises an alternative approach to average household size by
determining how housing units over the study period will be occupied across
different settlements, based on intercensal trends between 2002-2006 and
2006-2011. Composition trends were adjusted annually on the basis of increasing
and decreasing county and city-based fluctuations across 1-, 2-, 3-, 4- and 5 or
more - person households.
Stage
2
Population Projection
The foundation of the model rests on the Central Statistics Office’s (CSO)
demographic component method for population projection. This methodology
applies key assumptions which relate to future trends in fertility, mortality and
migration. Published in December 2013, the report on ‘Regional Population
Projections 2016-2031’ represents the latest available projection data. Multiple
scenarios are considered by adjusting the underlying assumptions. The preferred
M2F2 scenario represents a moderate future projection where fertility is assumed
to decrease from 2.1 to 1.8 to 2026; mortality rates to decrease with gains in life
expectancy; and net migration to return to positive by 2016-2021 (+4.7k avg. p.a.).
The projected figures reflect how each urban settlement’s population would
evolve under this specific scenario.
Stage
3
Specified Vacancy and Obsolesence
Specific city and regional vacancy rates were applied to annual housing stock
figures. These figures were provided by the Housing Agency and include the
following:
•
Dublin Region & Mid-East Region (7%);
•
Border Region & West Region (14%);
•
Other Regions (11%);
•
Dublin City, Cork City, Galway City, Limerick City (7%); Waterford City (10%);
•
Other Urban Centres (10%).
An annual functional obsolescence rate of 0.5% was applied to the 2011 housing
stock and subsequently rolled forward for each year of the study period. This
represents the number of housing units that for one reason or another become
functionally obsolete for the purposes of market trading.
Stage
4
Identified Housing Supply Requirements
The number of households required to support a population year-on-year reflects
the relationship between a growing population and declining household
composition across settlements. This, coupled with the obsolescence rate, places
higher pressures on the existing household stock. Supply requirements are
gauged by the assessment of how many housing units are required to support the
population within that year (at a given household composition) in relation to the
remaining amount of housing units available. All annual figures identified are not
cumulative, rather they assume that housing requirements in any previous year
have been met going forward into the next year. On this basis all projected figures
should be viewed as a minimum requirement for any year.
Page 5
Methodology Flowchart
Legal Cities
Legal Towns
& Environs
Census Towns
Urban Settlements
Stage
1
2011
Housing Stock
1 person
households
2002
Surviving
Population
Adjusted For
Migration
By Year Of Age
Historic Household
Composition Bands
2006
2 p. hs.
3 p. hs.
4 p. hs.
5+ p. hs.
Base Population
By Year Of Age
Survivorship Rates
Net Migration
2011
Male
Female
Average Intercensal
Growth/Decline in
Household Composition
Fertility Rates
Births
Survivorship Rates
Specified Vacancy Rates
(Regional, Cities, Settlements)
Projected Population
Stage
Obsolescence Rate
2
(Annually Applied)
Stage
3
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
Projected No. Of Persons
Per Household Composition Band
Projected No. Of
Housing Units Required
Stage
4
Projected No. Of
Housing Units Available
Assessment of Housing
Supply And Demand
Page 6
Urban Settlements In Ireland
Map Key
Urban Settlements
Regional Authorities
Local Authorities
Housing Agency
Future Analytics Consulting
53 Mount Street Upper,
Dublin 2, Ireland.
23 Fitzwilliam Square South,
Dublin 2, Ireland.
+353 (0) 1 656 4100
[email protected]
www.housing.ie
+353 (0) 1 639 4836
[email protected]
www.futureanalytics.ie