DISEC 1st Disarmament and Security Militarization in the Middle East The Russia-Ukraine Crisis Delegates and Faculty, I’d like to welcome you to UCI’s 25th annual High School Model United Nations Conference. My name is Sarah Ahmad, and I am proud to serve as the Secretary-General for UCIMUN’s 25th anniversary. As per tradition, the conference will be hosted at UCI’s Student Center, the hub of our beautiful and eco-friendly campus. Here at UCI, we strive to provide an enriching environment through competitive debate at both the novice and advanced level, with a strong emphasis on the educational gain of the students. UCI is proudly recognized as a research university; one that fosters culturally aware students, both connected to the global community and passionate about the state of global affairs. We hope to capture this drive towards advancement and amity through our conference theme this year, “Pursuing peace and security in today’s global landscape.” All of our topics feature an emphasis on current events, from the ongoing Middle Eastern refugee crisis to the war on terrorism in today’s modern scene. Our staff’s goal is to not only provide delegates with high quality debate, but also with an opportunity to immerse themselves in intellectual discussion of issues that are relevant to the community around them. The committees will revolve around the attainment of peace and security in areas such as public health, humanitarian crises, as well as large-scale crime. Our theme will allow delegates to research relevant topics that will better their understanding of the current state of world affairs, as well as help them brainstorm fresh, creative solutions that are applicable to these recent issues. My staff has been working tirelessly towards conference preparations and we can’t wait to see you all conference weekend! The hard work, dedication, and research that has gone into preparation thus far will only be furthered with the insightful opinions and discourse that is to come from our delegates. I encourage delegates to look beyond these documents, and to approach their topics not just as a mode for comprehensive debate, but as real world issues in need of feasible, pragmatic solutions. Best Regards, Sarah Ahmad Secretary-General UCIMUN 2016-2017 2|UCIMUN Greetings Delegates! My name is Vidhi Bhatia and I am your Under-Secretary of Mains! I am very excited to meet you all in April, and I am sure that this conference will be an amazing experience for us all. Let me begin by introducing myself. I am a fourth year student at UCI and I am a double major in International Studies and Political science, with a focus in international organizations and diplomacy. This is my second year with UCI MUN, last year I was the director for UNICEF at this conference. This year our committees are DISEC, UNODC, UNHCR, and WHO. This year our theme is Peace and Security, both extremely important in our current times. Throughout this conference, we encourage all delegates to think not only about their own nation’s affairs, but of your nation’s role in the world as well. Peace and security are an integral part of every person’s life on this planet, and it is imperative that both be preserved for the sake of humanity. There is a lot of negative, but students and delegates such as yourselves are the future of the world, and your opinions and efforts are the decisions of the future. Although we do not expect delegates to have all of the answers, we do expect delegates to think outside of the box and to think of the peace and security of the world as a whole. This year at UCI MUN we have decided to implement a new aspect to our conference. We will be implementing something called “whiteboard sessions,” in which we will encourage out of the box thinking for our delegates. Whiteboard sessions will be an informal conversation between delegates and their Dias. The Dias will use the whiteboards in each room to brainstorm and give the delegates an opportunity to express their own opinions on the topics in their committees. The goal of these sessions is to make delegates understand that the problems that they are attempting to solve are not just theoretical, but that they are problems that you as individuals can help solve. These sessions will aim to give delegates a greater perspective not only on their topics, but on the world as whole, and become global citizens. I am looking forward to meeting you all at conference and I hope that you all are as excited to debate the topics that our directors have been working so hard on. This is a learning experience, and I hope that each and every one of you take advantages of the opportunities that will be in front of you; during conference, in the real world, and within your lives as well. Best, Vidhi Bhatia Under-Secretary of Mains UCI MUN 2017 3|UCIMUN Dear Delegates, Salutations everyone! My name is Kimo Gandall, and I am a first year student at UCI (although I am also focused on studying for my real estate exam). While currently undeclared, I am planning on double majoring in quantitative economics, and political science. I’ve done MUN for my entire high school career, and have been to conferences ranging from New York to Bath, England. I have also competed in Speech and Debate, primarily in Public Forum, but also in Lincoln Douglas, and for a limited time, in Policy. I was a circuit debater, broke to the TOC, and attended National and State championships. In my spare time, you can catch me reading the works of Ayn Rand, my favorite political author. I also am an avid strategy fanatic, and I play (somewhat) competitively in Hearts of Iron III / IV, Axis and Allies, Civ IV Beyond the Sword, Civ VI, Company of Heroes II, and about 30 other games. Additionally, I play competitive chess, and game master D&D. My name is Isela Garcia, and I am one of your co-directors for 1st Disarmament and Security Committee (DISEC). I am currently a second year at the University of California, Irvine. I am a double major in both business economics and political science. This will be my second year involved in the Model United Nations program here at UCI. I had the privilege of being on the travel team last year and get to experience the National Model United Nations Conference in New York City. The experience allowed me to collaborate with delegates from around the world and work with them to execute solutions for our particular committee. I am thrilled to get to be a part of your delegation experience. In my spare time, you can catch me either reading or hiking. For position papers, this topic synopsis is a guide for appropriate discussion, not a research paper. Please do not simply copy my paper; the topic synopsis is a very broad paper, while your position papers should be more focused on your country’s key issues. For all of you debate junkies out there, or those interested in our paradigm, we hope to see proposals that are very specific --- namely the infamous ‘plantext’ (actor, action, timeframe). While we realize the UN doesn’t always pass specific resolutions, this problem should not percolate into our discourse, especially considering our goal, after all, is to accomplish something tangible. Also, please only engage in relevant discourse (ex. Do not go on ramble about ‘education and women’s rights’ in a disarmament committee, unless it has a direct link to the topic). Finally, we see diplomacy as a means of exerting hegemonic influence rather than a matter of politeness. Thus, while being ‘polite’ is important (so as not to completely polarize other Member States), we value a delegate’s ability to influence proposals, votes, and discourse over ‘politeness.’ That being said, you should all know the bright line to this preference. Regards, Kimo Gandall Isela Garcia Co-Directors, DISEC [email protected] 4|UCIMUN TOPIC A: MILITARIZATION IN THE MIDDLE EAST Introduction The current political crisis of the Middle East is the result of a bloody combination of social strife, competing state interests, and a multilateral failure on the part of the UN. Social strife has led the forefront of instability in the region, as two predominant factions within Islam, the Sunnis and Shiites, compete for power (Council on Foreign Relations). Most significantly, terrorist organizations such as ISIS, an extremist Sunni religious group, have exploited these differences to perpetuate an ongoing conflict against western and regional powers (Anand). Competing state interests, such as the US’s petrocurrency (Tun), emerging Russian intervention in Syria (Katz), and Iranian troops in Syria (Friedman), have served to act as conduits to escalate violence. Tensions between ethnic groups, such as the Kurdish militias and Turkey, also threaten leak conflict into surrounding regions (Coker). These power struggles are, in part, a failure of the UN. As the situation in the middle-east rapidly declines, the prevalence of failed states and the resulting consequences of rising terrorist groups must be thoroughly discussed. Consideration must be taken not only about the crumbling infrastructures of Middle Eastern governments, but also the increasing social divides between ethnic groups in the region. Furthermore, the importance of DISEC to disarm, and promote security must be prioritized (UN News Center). While only the Security Council can mandate force, discourse that involves the extent of justifiable UN or unilateral action is encouraged. Moreover, past precedents, such as the Right to Protect doctrine, and its potential application to the Middle East, ought to be explored (UN News Center). Finally, there is an urgent need to address the, perhaps radically, changing foreign policies of the United States, and other western countries, upon the election of Donald Trump and other protectionist movements (Shear). These 5|UCIMUN policies may represent a serious shift of policy, as President Trump has explained, to fight “radical Islam.” In the future, this raises questions about the possibility of failed states as a result of aggressive foreign players ("Understanding the Complexity of Political Islam"). These shifting political environments may act as both a constraint, and an opportunity to policy advocacy, and should be considered as such. Topic Description Proliferation of Weapons of Mass Destruction (WMDs) In the Middle East, there has been the prevalent policy of using WMDs against civilians, primarily in form of chemical weapons. As of the recently, the Syrian government has been documented using chemical weapons against civilians (Gladstone), with the number of casualties caused by chemical weapons estimated to be at 1,500 (Shaheen). Non-state actors, such as ISIS, have also contributed to the proliferation of chemical weapons, with reports indicating that ISIS has used chemical weapons at least 52 times since 2014 (Schmitt). Previous attacks with chemical weapons have yielded a disproportionate fear-to-destruction ratio, i.e. chemical weapons inflict far more fear than actual harm (Jones et al.). As a result, these weapons have proven militarily useful in promoting ideologies that seek to control and suppress civilian populations, despite the obvious moral implications. Biological weapons have played a role of deterrence in past Middle Eastern state actions. Iraq, in the past, was documented with controlling nearly 8,425 liters of anthrax, and 2,200 liters of aflatoxin. Iran, Israel, Libya, and Syria have also been accused of owning these weapons (Pike). These are worrying as they can infect, spread, and eradicate areas outside of the original area of contamination, and can kill both 6|UCIMUN humans and agricultural products (animals, crops, etc.) (Dudley). While state actors have hesitated in using such weapons, it is undoubtable that non-state actors, such as ISIS and other terrorist groups, would employ them. Furthermore, there have already been cases of lone-wolf terrorists associated with ISIS attempting to implement primitive forms of biological weapons, and the agents to implement such as exist in the status quo (Henderson; Greenfield et al.; Koblentz). Thus, there is reason to be cautious of non-state actors. Nuclear weapons have also been, in part, proliferated in the Middle East (Arms Control Association). States such as Israel and Pakistan already control nuclear weapons ("Middle East Countries With Nuclear Weapons"), and other states, such as Iran, Saudi Arabia, and other Arab states are supposedly researching how to construct nuclear weapons (Meyssan; "Middle Eastern States Seeking Nuclear Power”; Riedel). There are additional fears that states such as Israel are perpetuating an arms race in the Middle East (Borger; Middle East Research and Information Project), leading to an inevitable proliferation (NCAFP; World Affairs Journal). Additionally, while the US has brokered a deal with Iran to dismantle Iran’s nuclear weapons (The White House), President Trump has already announced he will cancel the deal (Lorber), and the US congress has backed measures to reinstate sanctions on Iran (Gladstone). Thus, it is likely that states will continue to arm. Moreover, non-state actors, namely ISIS and ISIS affiliated organizations, may have access to radiological weapons, which act as ‘dirty bombs’, with an explosion covering an area with radioactive debris (Armstrong; Malone). There are disputes, however, if these actors could effectively carry out an impactful attack (Jones). The UN has taken a multitude of steps to prevent proliferation of WMD’s in the Middle East. First, as per Security Council Resolution 1540 ("UN Security Council Resolution 1540 (2004)” ), the United 7|UCIMUN Nations Office for Disarmament Affairs (UNODA) has worked to support treaties to promote disarmament and prevent proliferation of nuclear, biological, and chemical weapons (UN, “Nuclear Weapons”; UN, “Biological Weapons”; UN, “Chemical Weapons”). Secondly, the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), a branch of the UN, actively works to inspect, regulate, and contain the expansion of nuclear weapons (IAEA, "History."; IAEA, “"Basics of IAEA Safeguards."). Finally, the UN General Assembly has passed several resolutions to control the proliferation of WMDs, such as A/Res/67/73, and A/Res/67/76 . However, despite the work of these organizations, the UN has ultimately failed at preventing the proliferation of nuclear weapons in the Middle East. The presence of Improvised Explosive Device (IEDs) Improvised explosive devices (IEDS) are a common tactic used by terrorist organizations to inflict causalities, lower enemy morale, and fortify strategic locations (Kharal; Asal V. et al.). These weapons can come in nearly all forms, from smaller bombs on main roads, to devices attached to vehicles (Homeland Security). Moreover, organizations like ISIS have using IEDs to guard important routes, such as the roads to Mosul, to block supply and delay government advancements (Muñoz). Other organizations, such as the Taliban, used IEDs as an ideological tool, such as the US, or other NATO allies, to drain interventionist states of precious resources, and spark political backlash (Mashal et al.; Cassman). Civilians have not been spared of such strategies. As of 2015, around 16,000 civilians have been killed by IEDs, with the number of civilian deaths related to these weapons increasing in Turkey by up to 7,000%, and up to 1,204% in Yemen (Norton-Taylor). Furthermore, IEDs, in contrast to a militarist strategy, have been largely used in public areas such as marketplaces (Homeland Security, "Potential Terrorist Attack Methods"). 8|UCIMUN The true danger of these weapons exist in their accessibility; they are often constructed in secrecy, and improvised from stolen explosives, electronics, and vehicles (Homeland Security, IED Attack Improvised Explosive Devices). As a result, lone-wolf terrorists, such as the Boston-bombing in the United States (Ybarra), or the 2016 Brussel bombings (Pantucci) have begun to a pose a new threat. Worse, there is evidence that these weapons could be converted into radiological weapons (NCR), colloquially known as ‘dirty bombs’, that, when activated, release massive quantities of radioactive material over a large radius (Carafano). In 2015 the United Nations General Assembly passed A/RES/70/46, which worked to develop unilateral policies in different nations to counter IEDs. Similar to past resolution, this resolution also identified the threat IEDs posed to peacekeepers and humanitarian workers. While the United Nations Office for Disarmament Affairs (UNODA) has stated that the resolution may assist civilians in protecting themselves, the organization has also conceded that the UN continues to be insolvent in mitigating the damages of IEDs. Social and Cultural Tensions Two predominant Islamic religious factions compete for power in Middle East: The Sunnis and Shiites. Sunnis represent the majority of the population, with most figures putting Shiites at about 10% of the Muslim population (BBC). Historically, there has been a strong divide between these factions (Hall). ISIS, for instance, is a Sunni extremist terrorist actor that has exploited the divide for recruitment, and governance (Tawfeeq; Tony Blair Faith Foundation). These cultural tensions, in lieu of government, have, in the cases of ISIS, have grown to result in mass violence against minority populations, such as the Yazidi (Johnson). 9|UCIMUN Smaller, perhaps more subtle ethnic groups, such as the Kurds, have further compounded the complexity of the conflict (Galen). Specifically, the Kurdish ethnic group has faced historical discrimination from regimes ranging from Iraq to Turkey (Bohn). In response to the emerging failed states of Iraq and Syria, this group may seek autonomy from traditional institutions (BBC, "Kurds Seek Autonomy in a Democratic Syria."). Independent actors in the Middle East, such as the Taliban and Al Qaeda, have also managed to foster anti-western attitudes towards intervening nations, especially the United States (BBC. "Who Are the Taliban?"; Gunaratna). To compound this problem, shifting political patterns from Western nations favoring right wing policies (Gallup) have served to increase polarization, resulting in distrust (Wike). These movements have caused most unilateral action to backfire; movements by the US have been viewed as invasive, and have resulted in an empirical increase in terrorist attacks (Evans; Haass). The Russian Federation has also begun to play an integral role in Syria supporting the Syrian government (The Economist). These unilateral interventionist actions have, on balance, largely served to increase cultural tensions (Pape). In order to provide security to the region, international bodies will need to provide a method of integration of social and political groups that mitigates coercion and maintains power structures. The UN has been virtually insolvent in its efforts to reduce these tensions. In 2016 Secretary General Ban Ki Moon gave a speech to the Security Council that the situation in the Middle East was deteriorating (UN, “Security Council Now Has 'no Higher Responsibility…”), and in November of 2016 Stephen O’Brien, the UN Humanitarian Chief, told an emergency session of the UN Security Council that Aleppo was in danger of becoming, “one giant graveyard” (Borger). In spite of this, no resolution has been 10 | U C I M U N passed from the Security Council to address this. The UN Economic and Social Commission, however, has been mandated by the UN to promote social inclusion, and stimulate economic growth (UN, “Middle East”). Unfortunately, this too has been ultimately insolvent at doing either (UN, “Social Development”). Bloc Positions The Arab Bloc As indicated, most underdeveloped nations, especially those in the Middle East, seek to bring about peace. There are those, of course, that have unilateral agendas to maintain; the Syrian government seeks to crush rebel opposition with the support of the Russian government and in defiance of most diplomatic efforts, and the Sunni-Shiite split continues to divide Middle Eastern countries. Delegates representing a nation of the Arab bloc must thoroughly research that nation’s policy, in regards to both religious, and economic conditions, to determine positions on possible issues. It is also important for these delegates to consider priorities, and, in the case of the countries such as Syria, maintain a hold on power over the discourse, while preventing the Western states from imposing policies that may be violations of sovereignty. The Western Bloc The Middle East has become a staging ground for different Western interests, as well as a drain on resources. Western states will all have different interests; the nations of the EU bloc may pull for policies that mitigate the size of the refugee population, while states such as the US or Russia may be more interested in hegemonic power plays. At the same time, delegates are reminded that the United Nations is designed to promote peace and cooperation; to some extent, negotiation will be required. Thus, delegates representing 11 | U C I M U N a western state must not only research policy, but sustainable and pragmatic solutions that can be implemented in a timely manner. The Asian Bloc Consisting of China, Vietnam, and other rising industrial powers, there is no general consensus. India and Pakistan, nations with predominantly different religions, frequently quarrel in border regions, while China maintains a largely economic role. Thus, depending on the country, policies could range from interventionism, as may be advocated by powers pursuing hegemonic influence, or more moderate positions that instead advocate for the UN to maintain a restricted role. The Russian Federation The Russian Federation, and their related allies, as was previously mentioned during the introduction, have an inherent interest in maintaining hegemonic influence over states such as Syria, and would likely pursue policies that advocate interventionism. Furthermore, it seems, with the past election, that the probability that the Russian Federation would seek assistance from new political allies in the Trump administration is high. Thus, the delegates from Russia, and associated previous or current socialist republics, would likely fare well by maintaining a balance between interventionism and cooperation with strategic western states. Committee Goals The question of the Middle East is one of the largest, most complicated security problems faced in the 21st century. DISEC’s jurisdiction is also very broad, encompassing disarmament and general security. While considering this mandate, delegates are expected to draft sustainable solutions that are unique, versatile, and solvent. While delegates are encouraged to engage in holistic discourse, it may also be wise to 12 | U C I M U N focus solutions on specific measures that will work to bring tangible change. Finally, while solutions should be innovative, they should also be empirical, and have thorough advocacies to ensure that, much like previous UN resolutions, they don’t result in total failure. There is also a word about this topic on policy --- all nations have an agenda. This is a simple reality. Bearing this in mind, how can delegates work to negotiate on solutions that benefit all factions, while remaining solvent? Research Questions 1. What kind of weapons currently exist in the Middle East? Who has access to them, and how does the committee incentivize disarmament? 2. What reactionary measures has the UN passed to protect civilians from WMDs, and how can these be improved? 3. What has the UN done in the past in regards to the issue? Has it worked? Why or why not? How can these actions be improved? 4. What measures can be taken to mitigate the cultural and ethnic strife that is currently fueling conflict? 5. How can DISEC work to establish sustainable security procedures that are impactful? 13 | U C I M U N Works Cited: RES/67/73." United Nations. United Nations, Dec. 2012. <http://www.un.org/en/ga/search/view_doc.asp?symbol=A%2FRES%2F67%2F73>. "A/RES/67/76." 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Web. 27 Dec. 2016. <http://www.bing.com/cr?IG=95C993BFB19E4ABCBDC07F13AE3CCEC2&CID=1C947459E8EF69DC17FB7DA0E9DE6894&r d=1&h=6AWgIgeAVAUnNh87oxz3avzGmklyarimUbmwQP1lM8Y&v=1&r=http%3a%2f%2fbelfercenter.ksg.harvard.edu%2ff iles%2fkoblentz.pdf&p=DevEx,5085.1>. Lorber, Eric. "President Trump and the Iran Nuclear Deal." Foreign Policy. Foreign Policy, 16 Nov. 2016. Web. 27 Dec. 2016. <http://foreignpolicy.com/2016/11/16/president-trump-and-the-iran-nuclear-deal/>. Malone, Patrick, and R. Jeffrey Smith. "ISIS Sought Nuclear Material for Dirty Bomb, Officials Believe." NBCNews.com. NBCUniversal News Group, 29 Feb. 2016. Web. 27 Dec. 2016. <http://www.nbcnews.com/storyline/isis-terror/isis-sought-nuclear-material-dirtybomb-officials-believe-n527626>. Mashal, Mujib, and Kandahar. "Afghanistan’s IED Complex: Inside the Taliban Bombmaking Industry | TIME.com." Time. Time, 2013. Web. 27 Dec. 2016. <http://world.time.com/2013/01/02/afghanistans-ied-complex-inside-the-taliban-bomb-making-industry/>. 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"Number of Civilians Killed or Injured by Explosives Rises 50% in Five Years." The Guardian. Guardian News and Media, 26 Apr. 2016. Web. 27 Dec. 2016. <https://www.theguardian.com/law/2016/apr/27/civilians-killed-injured-explosivesrises-turkey-yemen>. Pantucci, Raffaello. "The Age of the Lone Wolf Is Far From Over." Foreign Policy. Foreign Policy, 30 Mar. 2016. Web. 27 Dec. 2016. <http://foreignpolicy.com/2016/03/30/lone-wolf-isis-brussels-paris-syria-iraq/>. Pape, Robert. "The Occupation." Foreign Policy 31.3 (2016): 62-63. UChicago. University of Chicago, 18 Oct. 2010. Web. 27 Dec. 2016. <http://cpostdata.uchicago.edu/pdf/ForeignPolicy_Occupation10182010.pdf>. 17 | U C I M U N Pike, John. "Weapons of Mass Destruction (WMD)." Biological Weapons - Syria. Gobal Security, n.d. Web. 02 Dec. 2016. <http://www.globalsecurity.org/wmd/world/syria/bw.htm>. Riedel, Bruce. "Nuclear Power in the Middle East." Bulletin of the American Academy of Arts and Sciences 63.2 (2010): 33-34. Brookings Edu. Brookings Edu. Web. 27 Dec. 2016. <https://www.brookings.edu/wpcontent/uploads/2016/06/12_nuclear_proliferation_riedel.pdf>. RO, Julia. "The Sunni-Shia Divide." Council on Foreign Relations. Council on Foreign Relations, 2014. Web. 09 Nov. 2016. http://www.cfr.org/peace-conflict-and-human-rights/sunni-shia-divide/p33176#!/?cid=otr-marketing_urlsunni_shia_infoguide, Schmitt, Eric. "ISIS Used Chemical Arms at Least 52 Times in Syria and Iraq, Report Says." The New York Times. The New York Times, 21 Nov. 2016. Web. 02 Dec. 2016. <http://www.nytimes.com/2016/11/21/world/middleeast/isis-chemical-weapons-syria-iraqmosul.html>. Shaheen, Kareem. "'Almost 1,500 Killed in Chemical Weapons Attacks' in Syria." The Guardian. Guardian News and Media, 14 Mar. 2016. Web. 02 Dec. 2016. <https://www.theguardian.com/world/2016/mar/14/syria-chemical-weapons-attacks-almost-1500-killed-reportunited-nations>. Shear, Michael. "Presidential Election Live: Donald Trump’s Victory." The New York Times. The New York Times, 08 Nov. 2016. Web. 09 Nov. 2016. <http://www.nytimes.com/2016/11/08/us/politics/election-live.html>. Steward, Scott. "The Biggest Threat Dirty Bombs Pose Is Panic." Forbes. Forbes Magazine, 11 Sept. 2014. Web. 27 Dec. 2016. <http://www.forbes.com/sites/stratfor/2014/09/11/the-biggest-threat-dirty-bombs-pose-is-panic/#6a04b543134a>. Tawfeeq, Mohammed. "Officials: ISIS Recruiting on the Rise in Sunni Areas of Iraq."CNN. Cable News Network, 11 Aug. 2011. Web. 27 Dec. 2016. <http://www.cnn.com/2014/08/09/world/meast/iraq-isis-recruit/>. Tun, Zaw Thiha. "How Petrodollars Affect The U.S. Dollar." Investopedia. Investopedia, 29 July 2015. Web. 09 Nov. 2016. <http://www.investopedia.com/articles/forex/072915/how-petrodollars-affect-us-dollar.asp>. Wike, Richard. "Widespread Negativity: Muslims Distrust Westerners More than Vice Versa." Pew Research Center's Global Attitudes Project. Pew Research Center's Global Attitudes Project, 01 Apr. 2010. Web. 28 Dec. 2016. <http://www.pewglobal.org/2007/10/30/widespread-negativity-muslims-distrust-westerners-more-than-vice-versa/>. Ybarra, Maggie. "Boston Marathon Bombing Trial Spotlights Challenge of Stopping ‘lone-wolf’ Terrorists." The Washington Times. The Washington Times, 2015. Web. 27 Dec. 2016. <http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2015/apr/6/tsarnaev-boston-marathonbombing-trial-spotlights-/>. 18 | U C I M U N TOPIC B: THE RUSSIA-UKRAINE CRISIS Introduction The current situation in the Ukraine and the Russian government has quickly escalated from a policy disagreement into a full-blown international crisis. It is believed to be one of the most violent outbreaks since the Cold War. Russia and the Ukraine close relationship spans several decades with Crimea breaking apart from the Soviet Union in 1991. Despite gaining autonomy, Russia has maintained a sphere of influence over the Ukraine government both politically and economically. The political and social unrest stems from the Crimean crisis in 2014(New,“Ukraine Crisis”). Former Ukraine president Viktor Yanukovych abandoned talks for a historic trade deal with the European Union because of the tremendous opposition to the Russian government. The Russians government has opposed closer ties with the European Union by placing trade restrictions in 2013 to demonstrate their stance (Thompson). This political decision caused a mass influx of protesters and political unrest that is still present till this day. This great divide of protest became known as the Euromaidan with Ukraine citizens wanting closer European ties. As violence only escalated and gunfire became rampant throughout the nation, President Yanukovych fled the country. The massive amount of social unrest helps showcases the clear divide between the Pro- European and Pro- Russian ideology throughout the nation (Walsh). Weeks into the social unrest Russian government sent military forces into the epicenter, Crimea and completed an annexation in a referendum in March of 2014(Reuters).The international community saw Vladimir Putin's actions as violating “post-war global security”(Dallison). The annexation of Crimea by the Russian Federation has come at a significant cost.The U.N. Human Rights Commission has determined over 8000 Ukraine civilian 19 | U C I M U N casualties threatening the public's safety(Williams). The situation in Ukraine is relevant as the crisis threatens national security as a whole, sovereignty, and territorial disputes. Topic Description Crimea Annexation The situation between Russia and Ukraine has put both the national and international security of many countries at risk. The ongoing battle has caused massive unrest and the chaos began with demonstrations by pro-Russian and anti-government groups in eastern and southern part of Ukraine. The protection of sovereignty is crucial when discussing the ongoing crisis between both Ukraine and Russia needs to be resolved between the international community (Reuters). The need for intervention is needed in affected areas of Ukraine and Crimea from the international community to help the stabilization in both areas and secure safety for innocent civilians (Oliphant) The relationship between Russia and Ukraine is one of great importance as the stability of the relationships has both economic and political ramifications for each nation (Walsh). The international community has tried to minimize the civilian casualties and bring a permanent ceasefire between both parties but none have accomplished permanent ceasefire. The territorial acquisition, national sovereignty, validity of the Crimean referendum, sanctions, ethnic divides, and energy security have all been topics in the forefront when dealing with the Ukraine and Russian crisis. Validity of the Referendum On March 16, 2014, Crimea held an independence referendum. The referendum showcased over 95.5% of voters were for joining the Russian Federation (News,“Crimea Referendum”). The Russian Federation has maintained a high sphere of influence over Eastern Ukraine with over 58% the citizens 20 | U C I M U N living in the state being ethnic Russian and having a pro-Russian ideology. This distinct advance caused waves of speculation on the validity of the referendum. The Russians view the referendum as selfdetermination and President Vladimir Putin urges the international community to respect that voluntary choice of the people for reunification (Reuters). The European Union regards the annexation as a breach of international law with coercion playing a role in the referendum. On March 27, 2014, the 68th UN General Assembly passed Resolution GA/11493, ‘Territorial integrity of Ukraine’, calling on states, international organizations and specialized agencies not to recognize any change in the status of Crimea or the Black Sea port city of Sevastopol, and to refrain from actions or dealings that might be interpreted as such(General Assembly). This resolution was a response to failed attempts from the United Nations Security Council efforts to draft a resolution that would have dismissed the outcome of the referendum in Crimea and uphold Ukraine's claims of “sovereignty, independence, unity, and territorial integrity”failed(UN Security). The proposed resolution was vetoed by Russia who’s UN Representative, Vitaly Churkin believed the right of sovereignty should be in the hands of the Republic of Crimea (UN Security). Ethnic Divides The chaos and rampant violence in Donbass specifically in both Donetsk and Luhansk territories where a result of the annexation of Crimea (News: “Ukraine Crisis in Crimea”).The divided nation of the Ukraine had a widespread protest with civilians deeply divided between the pro-Russian in the eastern and southern parts of Ukraine in contrast with pro-European sentiment ideology in western Ukraine (Windrem). The crisis spiraled into a war between separatist forces backed by the Russian Federation, the Donetsk People's Republic and Luhansk People's Republic, self-proclaimed territories fighting against the transitioning 21 | U C I M U N Ukrainian government. These militias gained majority control of eastern Ukrainian (News,“Crimea Dangerous”) The ongoing war hit all time high with the international community feeling the ramifications of the current crisis with the destruction of Malaysia Airlines Flight 17 (MH17). The Boeing 747 aircraft was destroyed on July 17, 2014, taking the lives of 298 people on board. Security Council adopted resolution 2166 which condemned the downing of Malaysia Airline flight 17 and called for an independent investigation of the crash (Nation). The Dutch Safety Board traced the cause to the intense fighting between Ukrainian forces and Russian-backed rebels in eastern Ukraine (Sengupta). Sanctions Ramifications As a result of the outcome of the referendum, the international community has taken measures to showcase the violation of international law they believe Russia has committed (Stubbs & Torbati).The sanctions placed on Russia were a collaborated effort put forth by the European Union, the United States, Canada, and other Allies (Review).These economic sanctions were placed in 2014 after the annexation of Crimea took place from Ukraine and extended till 2016.However, speculation remains on whether the sanctions should be lifted or extended with member states having different viewpoints (Barnato). The economic sanctions restricted access to financial capital for Russian-owned enterprises in the banking, energy and defense sectors. The effectiveness of the sanctions are what come into question and whether or not they should extend. Some foreign policy advisors believe that the sanctions had very minimal effect on Russian foreign policy and Vladimir Putin's Actions (Dajani). While former U.S ambassadors to Ukraine believes the sanctions 22 | U C I M U N outcomes have had long term impact on the Russian economy.The Russian prime minister Dmitry Medvedev estimated the sanctions had cost the Russian Government over 8o billion in lost revenue(Dajani). Energy Crisis The Russian Federation decision to annex Crimea in the referendum has made the topic of mutual energy security on the brink of chaos (Review,“Gas Conflict”). Russia’s energy sector is essential to Ukraine and the European Union. The international community is largely dependent on Russia control over the energy sector (Hotten & Kroeger). The crisis is further intensified the conflict of annexation when Gazprom a Russian company in charge of the distribution of energy cut off supply on June 16, 2014, due to Ukraine outstanding debts. The energy situation was seen as a political maneuver on the Russian government as a way to undermine and try to intensify the Ukraine government against pro-European movement (News,“Russia Halts”). Stability in Ukraine as the export revenues from Gazprom account for thirty three billion dollars that are transformed through Ukraine. The need for stability in the peninsula is crucial as the lingering impacts will not only hurt Russia and Crimea but their member states as well. Bloc Positions European Union: The European Union (EU) has viewed the annexation of Crimea by the Russian Federation as illegal and has taken restrictive measures toward Russia in response. The first wave of sanctions was put in place March 17, 2014, with the EU imposing travel bans and asset freezes to those responsible for undermining the territorial integrity of Ukraine (EU Sanctions).These measures were extended until March 15, 2017. An import ban on goods from Crimea and Sevastopol where one of the economic ramifications implemented 23 | U C I M U N in June 2014 and extended till June 2017. An export and import ban on the trade of arms was another economic sanction put in place. Lastly economic cooperation was suspended with the EIB suspension the of new financing operations in the Russian Federation(EU Restrictive).The European Union believes that the full implementation of Minsk Agreement is significant to long-term peace and stability in Ukraine. The Asian Bloc The Asian Bloc’s stance on the issue is quite complicated. While the bloc generally believes in the importance for each state to go through the self-determination process and support state sovereignty do not support the decisions made through referendums, many did not condemn Russian annexation of Crimea. When voting on the legitimacy of the referendum on March 16, 2014, China did not vote against the legitimacy but rather abstained on the matter (Lihua). As stated by the Chinese UN Ambassador Liu Jieyi, “complex intertwinement of historical and contemporary factors” saying the condemnation of the referendum would only create more chaos. North America The United States has played a pivotal role in condemning the actions Russia has taken in Crimea. The relationship between Russia and the United States has a significant and complicated history going back to the cold war era. The current situation in Crimea has strained the diplomatic relationship between both nations. President Obama has urged Russia to deescalate the situation in Ukraine or face further repercussions (Smith).The current economic sanctions put in place help showcase their stance and the criticism over the annexation of Crimea. Ukraine’s sovereignty is of great importance to the United States. 24 | U C I M U N Committee Goals The Conflict between Ukraine and Russia is a broad topic with many subtopics to discuss over one committee session. That is why preferably this committee will need to focus on the issues dealing with the annexation of Crimea and the global ratification it has on the international community. Topics to consider throughout committee should include the annexation of Crimea in relation to the territorial acquisition, national sovereignty, the validity of the Crimean referendum, energy security, and effectiveness of the sanctions. Crafting a solution to help create permanent ceasefire and security is critical .There is general disagreement on how and if the Russian federation should get punished for their actions. A solution is vital as the number of casualties of the conflict increase each day. Ultimately it is essential that the committee comes to an agreement on what should be the status of Crimea and find a solution that both the Ukrainian and Russian governments can adhere to. Research Questions 1. Was the Crimea referendum a process of self-determination or not? 2. How can Sovereignty and international- law in Ukraine be preserved? 3. How will permanent ceasefire and long term security be ensured in the region? 4. What are limitations in the current solutions proposed to end conflict between both parties? 5. If the referendum in Crimea was invalid, what are the steps needed to take in order to restore Ukrainian control, considering Russia's sphere of influence? 6. To what effect where the sanctions put in place effective? Should they be lifted or extended? 7. How can we ensure energy security in the regions? 25 | U C I M U N Work Cited Barnato,Katy. "Why This Sovereign Wealth Fund Believes Russia Sanctions Will Soon Be Lifted." CNBC. CNBC, 17 June 2016. 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Reports Nearly 8,000 Deaths in Ukraine War, Laments Russian Role." Los Angeles Times. Los Angeles Times, 8 Sept. 2015. Web. 08 Nov. 2016. <http://www.latimes.com/world/europe/la-fg-ukraine-russia-un-deaths-20150908-story.htm Windrem, Robert. "Payback? Russia Gets Hacked, Revealing Top Putin Aide Secrets." NBCNews.com. NBCUniversal News Group, 27 Oct. 2016. Web. 27 Dec. 2016. <http://www.nbcnews.com/storyline/ukraine-crisis/payback-russia-gets-hacked-revealing-putinaide-s-secrets-n673956>. 29 | U C I M U N
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