Virginia Department of Transportation
CONFIDENTIAL PPTA NEGOTIATIONS
I-95/I-395 HOT Lanes Project
Independent Traffic and Revenue Forecasts
Draft Final Report
January 2009
Halcrow, Inc.
Virginia Department of Transportation
CONFIDENTIAL PPTA NEGOTIATIONS
I-95/I-395 HOT Lanes Project
Independent Traffic and Revenue Forecasts
Draft Final Report
January 2009
Halcrow, Inc.
Halcrow, Inc.
4190 Lougheed Highway, Suite 508
Burnaby, BC V5C 6A8 Canada
www.halcrow.com
Halcrow, Inc. has prepared this proposal in accordance with the instructions of their client, VDOT, for
their sole and specific use. Any other persons who use any information contained herein do so at their
own risk.
© Halcrow, Inc. 2009
Virginia Department of Transportation
CONFIDENTIAL PPTA NEGOTIATIONS
I-95/I-395 HOT Lanes Project
Independent Traffic and Revenue Forecasts
Contents Amendment Record
This report has been issued and amended as follows:
Issue
Revision
Description
Date
Signed
1
0
DRAFT
11/14/08 KK
2
0
DRAFT FINAL REPORT
01/29/09 KK
Contents
1
2
Introduction
1
1.1
1.2
1.3
1
3
3
I-95/I-395 Corridor Review
2.1
2.2
2.3
2.4
2.5
2.6
2.7
2.8
2.9
3
4
5
6
Context
This Study
Structure of the Report
Principal Highways
Corridor Transit Services
Informal Carpooling (‘Slugging’)
Historic Traffic Counts (I-95/I-395 and US-1)
I-95/I-395 Traffic Data
Travel Time Data
Origin/Destination Data
Truck Traffic
Land Use and Economic Trends
5
5
5
6
8
10
13
14
15
17
Review of Existing HOT Lanes Facilities
20
3.1
3.2
3.3
Existing HOT lanes in North America
HOT lanes Proposed or Under Development
Violation of HOT Lane regulations
20
24
25
Traffic & Revenue Forecasting Assumptions
27
4.1
4.2
4.3
4.4
4.5
4.6
4.7
27
28
28
29
30
31
31
Value of Time (VOT) and toll escalation
Vehicle Operating Costs (VOC)
Annual Expansion Factor
Ramp Up
Treatment of growth beyond the model years
Inflation
Discount Rate
Base Year Model – Preparation, Calibration and Validation
32
5.1
5.2
5.3
5.4
5.5
32
33
33
34
39
Data Sources
Zoning System and Network refinement
Volume Delay Functions (VDF)
Base Year Matrix Preparation
Validation Results
Future Year Model
46
6.1
46
Future Networks
I-95/I-395 HOT Lane
Contents
6.2
6.3
6.4
6.5
7
8
9
Future Land Use
Future Year Matrices
Model Structure
Toll Diversion Model
46
48
48
50
Traffic & Revenue Forecasts
53
7.1
7.2
7.3
53
60
66
‘Throughput’ Tests
Revenue Optimization
Toll Schedule Analysis
Sensitivity Testing and Risk Analysis
73
8.1
8.2
8.3
73
73
82
Introduction
Sensitivity Tests
Risk Analysis
Summary
87
9.1
9.2
9.3
9.4
87
87
88
88
‘Throughput’ Tests
Revenue Optimization Tests
Sensitivity Tests
Risk Analysis
Appendix A – 2005 Base Year Model Validation Results
89
Appendix B – Key Road Network Improvements (FAMPO CLRP)
93
Appendix C – Key Road Network Improvements (NCRTPB CLRP)
95
Appendix D – I-95/I-395 HOT Ingress and Egress Ramps
97
Appendix E – Detailed Results from Main Tests
100
Appendix F – Sensitivity Tests – Detailed Results
129
Appendix G – Sensitivity of Traffic Model Forecasts to Fuel Prices
170
Appendix H – Risk Analysis methodologies
175
Appendix I – 90% & 10% Confidence Intervals – Detailed Results
178
I-95/I-395 HOT Lane
Contents
List of Tables
Page
Table 1.1
Table 2.1
Table 2.2
Table 3.1
Table 4.1
Table 4.2
Table 5.1
Table 5.2
Table 6.1
Table 7.1
Table 7.2
Table 7.3a
Table 7.3b
Table 7.3c
Table 7.4a
Table 7.4b
Table 7.4c
Table 7.5
Table 7.6
Table 7.7
Table 7.8
Table 8.1
Table 8.2
Table 8.3
Table 8.4
Table 8.5
Existing HOV Lanes Operation
Travel Time Survey Results
Historic Population for Selected Jurisdictions (1990-2000)
Violations in existing HOT Lanes
Real GDP/Capita Assumptions
Observed Annualization Factors
HOV Lanes Traffic Composition, Northbound between 06:00-09:00
Travel Time Validation Results
Total Population and Employment (2005, 2015 and 2030)
Annual Revenue for Target Minimum Speed Thresholds
Revenue optimal toll rates (2008 $ per/mile)
Toll Regime used to maintain 45 mph target minimum speed
Toll Regime used to maintain 55 mph target minimum speed
Revenue Optimal Toll Regime
Average segment speeds for 45 mph target minimum speed scenario
Average segment speeds for 55 mph target minimum speed scenario
Average segment speeds for Revenue Optimal Toll Regime scenario
Lane utilization for 45 mph target minimum speed toll schedule
Lane utilization for revenue optimal toll schedule
Possible Toll Schedule (Toll Schedule v1)
Annual Revenue for Revenue Optimal & Proposed Toll Schedule v1
Summary Sensitivity Results
Ramp up Factors for Northern Section
Ramp up Factors
Summary of inputs to risk analysis
Risk analysis results
2
14
17
26
28
29
37
40
47
54
61
66
67
67
68
68
68
69
69
70
71
74
76
77
83
84
List of Figures
Figure 1.1
Figure 2.1
Figure 2.2
Figure 2.3
Figure 2.4
Proposed I-95/I-395 HOT Lanes Project
2005 AM Peak Bus Services I-95/I-395
Slug Locations
Map of I-95 and US-1
Traffic profiles of I-95 (SR-110 to Mudd Tavern Road)
Page
4
6
7
8
9
I-95/I-395 HOT Lane
Contents
List of Figures
Figure 2.5
Figure 2.6
Figure 2.7
Figure 2.8
Figure 2.9
Figure 2.10
Figure 2.11
Figure 2.12
Figure 2.13
Figure 2.14
Figure 2.15
Figure 2.16
Figure 5.1
Figure 5.2
Figure 5.3
Figure 5.4
Figure 5.5
Figure 5.6a
Figure 5.6b
Figure 5.6c
Figure 5.7
Figure 5.8a
Figure 5.8a
Figure 6.1
Figure 6.2
Figure 7.1
Figure 7.2
Figure 7.3a
Figure 7.3b
Figure 7.3c
Figure 7.4a
Figure 7.4b
Figure 7.4c
Figure 7.5
Figure 7.6
Traffic profiles of US-1 (Glebe to Thornburg)
I-95/I-395 2006 Hourly Profiles (Jefferson Davis Highway to
Germanna Hwy)
I-95/I-395 2006 Hourly Profiles (Joplin Road to Dumfries Road)
I-95/I-395 2006 Hourly Profiles (Edsall Road to Duke Street)
I-95/I-395 2005 Average Day of Week Profiles
I-95/I-395 2005 Monthly Traffic Profiles
2000 CTPP Trip Origin (Auto Driver)
2000 CTPP Trip Destination (Auto Driver)
2005 Average Daily Truck Profiles of I-95 (SR 110 to Mudd Tavern
Road)
2005 Average Daily Truck Profiles along US 1 (Glebe to Thornburg)
Employment for DC-VA-MD-WV area (1969-2006)
Gross Domestic Product from 1997 to 2006
Traffic Zones in the Southern Area
Adjusted Volume Delay Function (Freeways)
2000 CTPP Auto Driver vs. 2000 NCRTPB HBW Auto Driver (Traffic
Originated from Spotsylvania/ Fredericksburg/ Stafford)
AM Peak Period Sluggers and Formal HOV3+ on HOV Lanes
PM Peak Period Sluggers and Formal HOV3+ on HOV Lanes
RSQ of Observed to Model Fit for I-95/I-395 HOV & GP Lanes
RSQ of Observed to Model Fit for I-95/I-395 HOV & GP Lanes
RSQ of Observed to Model Fit for I-95/I-395 HOV & GP Lanes
RSQ of Observed to Model Fit for US 1
RSQ of Observed to Model Fit for I-495, I-66 and SR 236
RSQ of Observed to Model Fit for I-495, I-66 and SR 236
Model Structure
Typical Diversion Curve
Initial traffic segments
Proposed Tolling Segments
2015 AM Peak Toll rates derived from throughput tests
2015 PM Peak Toll rates derived from throughput tests
2015 Off Peak Toll rates derived from throughput tests
2030 AM Peak Toll rates derived from throughput tests
2030 PM Peak Toll rates derived from throughput tests
2030 Off Peak Toll rates derived from throughput tests
2030 AM Peak Revenue Optimization Curve
2030 PM Peak Revenue Optimization Curve
Page
10
11
11
12
12
13
15
15
16
16
18
19
33
34
36
38
38
40
41
42
43
44
45
49
50
55
56
57
57
58
58
59
59
62
62
I-95/I-395 HOT Lane
Contents
List of Figures
Figure 7.7a
Figure 7.7b
Figure 7.7c
Figure 7.8a
Figure 7.8b
Figure 7.8c
Figure 7.9a
Figure 7.9b
Figure 7.9c
Figure 8.1
Figure 8.2
Figure 8.3
Figure 8.4
Figure 8.5
2015 AM Peak Revenue Optimal Toll Rates
2015 PM Peak Revenue Optimal Toll Rates
2015 Off Peak Revenue Optimal Toll Rates
2030 AM Peak Revenue Optimal Toll Rates
2030 PM Peak Revenue Optimal Toll Rates
2030 Off Peak Revenue Optimal Toll Rates
2015 & 2030 AM Peak Toll Rates
(Toll Schedule v1 and revenue optimal)
2015 & 2030 PM Peak Toll Rates
(Toll Schedule v1 and revenue optimal)
2015 & 2030 Off Peak Toll Rates
(Toll Schedule v1 and revenue optimal)
Summary impact of sensitivity tests on Base Case revenue in 2015
Summary impact of sensitivity tests on Base Case revenue in 2030
Revenue distribution curves for 2015 and 2030
Revenue stream risk envelope (2012-2071)
Total revenue probability for model years (2015 & 2030)
Page
63
63
64
64
65
65
71
72
72
75
75
84
85
86
I-95/I-395 HOT Lane
Introduction
1
Introduction
1.1
Context
The I-95 in Virginia is an existing 179 mile north-south freeway that runs from the North
Carolina border in Greensville County to the District of Columbia border. I-395 is the 10 mile
continuation of the freeway between the I-495 Capital Beltway interchange and the District of
Columbia border.
The Project
Under provisions of Virginia’s Public-Private Transportation Act of 1995, Virginia Department
of Transportation, in partnership with Fluor Virginia Inc. and Transurban USA, Inc. (FTU),
proposes to construct and operate a system of High Occupancy Toll (HOT) lanes on I-95 and
I-395 in Northern Virginia.
The proposed project would add a third lane to the existing High Occupancy Vehicle (HOV)
lanes on I-95/395 from South Eads Street (Exit 8C of I-395) near the Pentagon in Arlington
County, to their existing southern terminus south of Route 234 (Dumfries Road at Exit 152 of
I-95) near Dumfries in Prince William County – a distance of approximately 28 miles. This
would be accomplished by restriping and/or reconstructing and overlaying existing pavement.
Two new lanes would be constructed to extend the system south from Dumfries to a new
southern terminus at Massaponax.
In addition to the new lanes, 33 new or modified intermediate entry/exit points between the
general-purpose and HOT lanes are to be provided using a combination of direct, flyover, or
slip ramps. Improvements such as the addition of new park-and-ride lots and enhanced bus
services are also proposed as part of the project, to encourage transit use.
Existing HOV Arrangement
I-95/I-395 between Eads St and Dumfries currently has 8-10 traffic lanes, with configurations
ranging from 3-2-3 to 4-2-4 (two reversible HOV lanes in the median). Between Dumfries and
Fairfax County Parkway, it is mostly configured as 3-2-3, with occasional additional lanes for
general traffic gained and dropped around interchanges. From Fairfax County Parkway to the
Capital Beltway (I-495) the configuration is predominantly 4-2-4. North of the Capital Beltway,
the configuration includes sections of 3-2-3, 4-2-3 and 4-2-4, with additional lanes as I-395
passes through most of the interchanges. Between Dumfries and Massaponax, the I-95 has 6
lanes (3 lanes per direction) but currently has no HOV facilities. Vehicles with three or more
occupants (HOV3+) and hybrids (of any occupancy) are allowed to use the HOV lanes during
peak periods; HOV lanes are currently open to all traffic during the off peak.
1
I-95/I-395 HOT Lane
Introduction
Table 1.1 shows the HOV lanes’ times of operation. On weekdays, the HOV lanes are open
to traffic traveling in a northbound direction between 11pm and 11am. The median-located
lanes are then closed until 1pm to reverse their direction of use, and between 1pm and 9pm
are open to traffic in the southbound direction. Note that operation of the HOV lanes varies
slightly on Fridays.
Table 1.1 - Existing HOV Lanes Operation
HOV3+ and Hybrids
All
Closed
Northbound Weekdays
6:00am - 9:00am
9:00am -11:00am
11:00pm - 6:00am
11:00am - 1:00pm
Southbound Weekdays
3:30pm - 6:00pm
1:00pm - 3:30pm
6:00pm - 9:00pm
9:00pm - 11:00pm
Proposed HOT Lanes
The proposed I-95/I-395 HOV/Bus/HOT Lanes project is shown in Figure 1.1. The project will
expand the existing High Occupancy Vehicle (HOV) lanes on I-95/I-395 from two to three
lanes and extend two new lanes south to Massaponax.
The tolling plan proposed by FTU includes conversion of the existing partially restricted
reversible HOV operation to a fully restricted HOT operation, with HOT operation on the new
lanes south of Dumfries. Under this conversion, the HOT lanes would be dedicated for use by
qualifying HOV traffic, vehicles with three or more occupants (HOV3+) and buses, which
would continue to travel free.
Non-HOV traffic, single occupancy vehicles (SOV) and vehicles with two occupants (HOV2),
would be permitted to travel on the facility by paying a toll. The tolls would vary depending on
the level of use of the facility, with higher prices during periods of higher volumes and lower
prices during periods of lower volumes. Hybrids will be subject to the same toll regime based
on occupancy as conventionally-powered vehicles. Trucks will be prohibited. Hours of
operation for the HOV/Bus/HOT lanes are proposed to be similar to the current tidal
arrangements.
Proposed timing of the HOT lanes project is such that the northern section is anticipated to
open in 2012, with the southern section following in 2015. Model runs have therefore been
carried out with both the northern and southern sections in place in 2015 and 2030. Additional
tests have also been carried out to derive demand for the northern section operating alone in
2015, and extrapolated back to a provide revenue stream from their opening in 2012.
2
I-95/I-395 HOT Lane
Introduction
1.2
This Study
Halcrow has been appointed to undertake an independent Traffic and Revenue Study for the
I-95/I-395 project. This report presents the traffic and revenue forecasts, sensitivity tests and
risk analysis developed by Halcrow.
1.3
Structure of the Report
Following the introduction, the remainder of the report is structured as follows:
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
Chapter 2 provides an overview of the I-95/I-395 HOT lanes corridor;
Chapter 3 presents a review of existing HOT lanes facilities elsewhere in the US, in
order to set the I-95/I-395 assessments in context;
Chapter 4 briefly outlines the overall traffic and revenue methodology and sets out
some of the key parameters and assumptions;
Chapter 5 describes the base year model preparation (2005), including its
calibration and validation;
Chapter 6 outlines preparation of the future year models (2015 & 2030);
Chapter 7 describes the main traffic and revenue forecasts completed, including the
process used, and results obtained, in determining revenue optimal toll rates, and a
suggested possible toll schedule;
Chapter 8 considers the sensitivity tests carried out to assess the response of the
model and methodology to a number of variables. It goes on to outline the risk
analysis undertaken against a series of key variables, to identify a range of forecast
values and the associated probability of their occurrence in the future; and
Chapter 9 summarises the main results of the study.
There are nine appendices:
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
Appendix A – 2005 Base Year Model Validation Results
Appendix B – Key Road Network Improvements (FAMPO CLRP)
Appendix C – Key Road Network Improvements (NCRTPB CLRP)
Appendix D – I-95/I-395 HOT Ingress and Egress Ramps
Appendix E – Detailed Results from Main Tests
Appendix F – Sensitivity Test Results
Appendix G – Sensitivity of Traffic Model Forecasts to Fuel Prices
Appendix H – Risk Analysis methodologies
Appendix I – 90% and 10% Confidence Interval Results
3
I-95/I-395 HOT Lane
Introduction
Figure 1.1 - Proposed I-95/I-395 HOT Lanes Project
4
I-95/I-395 HOT Lane
I-95/I-395 Corridor Review
2
I-95/I-395 Corridor Review
2.1
Principal Highways
I-95/I-395
Interstate 95 (I-95) in Virginia is an existing 179 mile north-south freeway that runs from the
North Carolina border in Greensville County to the District of Columbia border. I-395 is the 10
mile continuation of the freeway between the I-495 Capital Beltway interchange and the
District of Columbia border.
I-95/I-395 traverses a wide variety of rural and major urban areas and serves several military
installations, including the Quantico U.S. Marine Corps Reservation near Triangle in Prince
William County, Fort Belvoir in Lorton and the Pentagon in Arlington County. At present, the I95/I-395 between Eads Street and Dumfries has 8-10 lanes with a 3-2-3 or 4-2-4 roadway
arrangement with two reversible high occupancy vehicle (HOV) lanes in the median. Between
Dumfries and Fairfax County Parkway, it is mostly configured as 3-2-3, with occasional
additional lanes for general traffic gained and dropped around most interchanges. From
Fairfax County Parkway to the Capital Beltway (I-495), the configuration is predominantly 4-24. North of the Capital Beltway, the configuration includes sections of 3-2-3, 4-2-3 and 4-2-4,
with additional lanes as I-395 passes through most of its interchanges.
Vehicles with three or more occupants (HOV3+) and hybrids of any occupancy are allowed to
use the HOV lanes during peak periods. The HOV lanes are open to all traffic during the off
peak. Between Dumfries and Massaponax, the I-95 has 6 lanes (3 lanes per direction).
US Route 1
US Route 1 (US-1) is the other major north-south route between Fredericksburg and the
District of Columbia (DC), and essentially runs parallel to I-95 as far as Alexandria and then
along I-395 towards DC. US-1 is an undivided highway with at-grade intersections, and
features both rural and urban sections. There are typically 4 lanes (2 per direction), with
additional lanes at intersections and in urban areas. North of Fort Belvoir as US-1
approaches DC, it is predominantly a 6-lane highway (3 per direction). US-1 mainly serves
local traffic, with daily volumes ranging from 20,000 to 35,000.
2.2
Corridor Transit Services
Figure 2.1 shows AM peak transit services for the I-95/I-395 corridor (as in 2005). During the
AM peak, there are some 127 buses per hour on I-95/I-395 in the vicinity of King Street in
Alexandria, with around 17 buses per hour in the vicinity of Fredericksburg. Also in the AM
peak, there are also 10 Washington Metropolitan Area Transit Authority (WMATA) Metrorail
trains, 2 Virginia Railway Express (VRE) trains and 2 Amtrak trains. According to a recent
5
I-95/I-395 HOT Lane
I-95/I-395 Corridor Review
transit and TDM study1, transit and carpool usage of the I-95/I-395 corridor is relatively high.
Transit mode share tends to increase progressively towards the northern part of the corridor
as reflected by the higher density of services.
Figure 2.1 - 2005 AM Peak Bus Service I-95/I-395
Source: I-95/I-395 Transit/TDM Study Final Report, February 2008.
2.3
Informal Carpooling (‘Slugging’)
‘Slugging’ is the term applied to the formation of ad-hoc, informal carpools for commuting.
The activity begain in the late 1970s, shortly after the establishment of the HOV restricted
lanes on I-95/395. Vehicles that did not meet the required number of individuals to take
advantage of HOV lanes would pick up additional passengers who were unknown to the
drivers, initially at bus stops in suburban areas. Over time, locations became well known and
1
I-95/I-395 Transit/TDM Technical Advisory Committee, “I-95/I-395 Transit/TDM Study Final Report”, February 29, 2008.
6
I-95/I-395 HOT Lane
I-95/I-395 Corridor Review
slugging more structured. According to a 2006 slugger count study2, there are approximately
19 locations where inbound sluggers can be picked-up, with 6 drop locations in the DC area
(shown in Figure 2.2).
Figure 2.2 - Slug Locations
Source: www.slug-lines.com, November 14, 2008.
Based on counts in 2005 of HOV and 2006 of sluggers, as many as 50% of HOV3+ vehicles
could include ‘sluggers’ in the morning peak (6:00-9:00am). No comparable information is
available to quantify the amount of slugging that takes place in the evening peak, though the
VHB report notes that there is more slugging activity in the morning than the evening, and
that it is not uncommon for a morning slugger to use transit services for the journey home. It
is likely there is some seasonality in slugging behavior, as inclement weather may discourage
people from waiting for a ride. However, insufficient count data is available to confirm this.
The 2006 slug counts undertaken by VHB were done in the months of April and May.
2
VHB/Vanasse Hangen Brustlin, “Dynamic Ridesharing (Slugging) Data: I-95 Corridor“, June 2006
7
I-95/I-395 HOT Lane
I-95/I-395 Corridor Review
2.4
Historic Traffic Counts (I-95/I-395 and US-1)
Figure 2.3 shows I-95/I-395 and US-1, and major intersecting roads, between Fredericksburg
and DC. Historical annual average daily traffic3 (AADT) for each route is discussed below.
Figure 2.3 - Map of I-95 and US 1
SR110
Seminary Rd
Old Keene Mill
US 1
Glebe Rd
SR 241
Gunston Rd
Dale Blvd
Dumfries Rd
Fuller Rd
Russell Rd
Garrisonville Rd
Garrisonville Rd
Courthouse Rd
Warrenton Rd
SR 3
US 1
Thornburg
Forbes St
Fall Hill Ave
SR 208
Mudd Tavern Rd
I-95/I-395
Figure 2.4 shows the yearly variation from 2001 to 2006 of traffic along selected segments of
I-95/I-395 between SR-110 in Arlington County and Mudd Tavern Road in Spotsylvania
County. In general, traffic volumes increase progressively towards the northern part of the
study corridor. In 2006, annual average daily traffic (AADT) was 97,000 north of Mudd Tavern
Road and 139,000 north of Garrisonville Road in Stafford County. From Joplin Road to Prince
William Parkway, the I-95/I-395 carries 160,000-187,000 AADT. The average daily traffic
volume exceeds 280,000 just south of I-495. Within the Capital Beltway, the AADT ranges
from 165,000 to 209,000.
3
Traffic Engineering Division of the Virginia Department of Transportation, “The Daily Traffic Volume Estimates Including Vehicle
Classification Estimates”, http://www.virginiadot.org/info/ct-TrafficCounts.asp, June 2008.
8
I-95/I-395 HOT Lane
I-95/I-395 Corridor Review
Figure 2.4 - Traffic Profiles of I-95 (SR-110 to Mudd Tavern Road)
300,000
250,000
150,000
100,000
50,000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
Mudd Tavern Rd
US 1
SR 3
Warrenton
Courthouse Rd
Garrisonville
Russell Rd
Joplin Rd
Dumfries Rd
Dale Blvd
Prince William Pkwy
Occoquan River
US 1
Old Keene Mill
Fairfax County Line
Duke St
Seminary Rd
King St
Quaker Lane
SR 120
SR 27
0
SR 110
AADT
200,000
In general, traffic on the I-95 corridor has been increasing. For the period of 2004 to 2006,
some sections of the corridor have shown substantial growth. Closer to Washington DC,
sections show only marginal increases, which are likely to be as a result of capacity
constraints. In 2004, traffic volumes increased rapidly on freeway segments between
Garrisonville Road and Dumfries Road, and between King Street and SR 120.
Prior to 2004, the traffic profile on sections between Courthouse Road and Dale Boulevard
indicates a mix of long-distance commuting trips and shorter-distance local trips, as illustrated
by on/off ramp volumes at intermediate interchanges. However, over the period 2004 to 2006,
I-95/I-395 appears to draw considerably more traffic, suggesting that population and
employment growth in the outer suburbs has resulted in more long-distance commuting trips.
US-1
Figure 2.5 shows the yearly traffic distribution along selected sections of US-1 between
Glebe in Arlington County and Thornburg in Spotsylvania County from 2001 to 2006. Overall,
traffic growth on US-1 has been relatively stable, with daily traffic volumes varying between
20,000 and 35,000 on most sections of the corridor. Some sections of US-1 show higher
traffic volumes as a result of variations in the numbers of lanes. For instance, sections north
of Fort Belvoir (Gunston Rd) heading for DC typically have 6 lanes (3 per direction).
9
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I-95/I-395 Corridor Review
Figure 2.5 - Traffic Profiles along US-1 (Glebe to Thornburg)
100,000
2001
90,000
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
80,000
70,000
AADT
60,000
50,000
40,000
30,000
20,000
10,000
Thornburg
SR 208
Fall Hill Ave
Forbes St
Garrisonville Rd
Fuller Rd
NCL Dumfries
US 1 Fraley Blvd
South Int.
Gunston Rd
SR 241
King St
Glebe Rd
0
Towards D.C.
2.5
I-95/I-395 Traffic Data
Hourly Profiles
Figures 2.6 to 2.8 show the hourly traffic profiles4 at three locations on I-95/I-395, for an
average weekday in June/July 2006. These locations are:
•
•
•
Jefferson Davis Highway to Germanna Highway (southern section);
Joplin Road to Dumfries Road (transition area); and
Edsall Road to Duke Street (north of Capital Beltway).
The hourly profile on the southern section between Jefferson Davis Highway and Germanna
Highway shows a slight afternoon peak but no defined morning peak, which indicates a
typical daily traffic profile for a rural highway. For sections from Dumfries Road towards the
northern part of the corridor, the hourly traffic profile reflects a more typical urban highway
pattern, with a distinct morning and afternoon peak. It is also evident that the number of hours
that can be considered within the peak periods (both AM and PM) expands progressively
towards the northern part of the study corridor.
4
Fluor Transurban, “schematic_i95 with counts 5-7-07 summary.xls”.
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I-95/I-395 Corridor Review
Figure 2.6 - I-95/I-395 2006 Hourly Profiles (Jefferson Davis Highway to Germanna Hwy)
Hourly Profile (Jefferson Davis Hw y to Germ anna Hw y)
10000
Northbound
Southbound
Hourly Traffic Volume (vph)
8000
6000
4000
2000
0
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23
Hour of Day
Figure 2.7 - I-95/I-395 2006 Hourly Profiles (Joplin Road to Dumfries Road)
Hourly Profile (Joplin to Dum fries)
10,000
Northbound
Southbound
Hourly Traffic Volume (vph)
8,000
6,000
4,000
2,000
0
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23
Hour of Day
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Figure 2.8 - I-95/I-395 2006 Hourly Profiles (Edsall Road to Duke Street)
Hourly Profile (Edsall to Duke)
10,000
Northbound
Southbound
Hourly Traffic Volume (vph)
8,000
6,000
4,000
2,000
0
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23
Hour of Day
Figure 2.9 - I-95/I-395 2005 Average Day of Week Profiles
100,000
Morris - Massponas
Courthouse - Garrisonville
Edsall - Duke
Daily Traffic Volume (vph)
80,000
60,000
40,000
20,000
0
Mon
Tue
Wed
12
Thur
Fri
Sat
Sun
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I-95/I-395 Corridor Review
Day of Week Profile
Figure 2.9 shows weekly traffic profiles for selected locations along I-95/I-395, for an average
week in 2005. Between Morris Road and Massaponax, the average daily weekday traffic is
generally lower than daily traffic on weekends, suggesting a high level of discretionary travel
using the corridor on weekends. Stafford County indeed offers numerous recreational
amenities, including private marinas, public fishing lakes, parks, athletic fields and golf
courses. Conversely, for the two northern sections, average weekday traffic is higher than at
weekends, reflecting the higher proportion of commuter traffic.
Seasonal Variation
Figure 2.10 shows monthly traffic volumes for key segments on the I-95/I-395 corridor. The
summer months are more peaked for southern than northern sections, as a result of
increased recreational activity in summer months.
Figure 2.10 - I-95/I-395 2005 Monthly Traffic Profiles
100,000
Monthly Traffic Volume (MADT)
Morris - Massponas
Courthouse - Garrisonville
Edsall - Duke
80,000
60,000
40,000
20,000
0
Jan
2.6
Feb
March
April
May
June
July
Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec
Travel Time Data
Travel time surveys between 6:00 AM and 6:30 PM were organized by Vollmer in June 2006.
Observed journey times are summarized in Table 2.1. The routes included:
•
I-95/I-395 GP lanes between Courthouse Road / SR-208 in Spotsylvania County
and the George Washington Memorial Parkway in Arlington County;
13
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I-95/I-395 Corridor Review
•
•
I-95/I-395 HOV lanes between the southern start / terminus just south of Dumfries
Road / SR-234 in Prince William County and the George Washington Memorial
Parkway in Arlington County; and
US Route 1: Courthouse Rd/SR-208 in Spotsylvania Co. & 23rd Str in Arlington Co.
Table 2.1 - Travel Time Survey Results
Observed
Road
Description
Type
Courthouse Rd / SR-208 to George
Washington Memorial Parkway
GP
Southern Start / Terminus to George
Washington Memorial Parkway
HOV
I-95 / I-395
US-1
2.7
Courthouse Rd / SR-208 to 23rd Street
All
in Arlington County
purposes
Dir
AM (6-9 AM)
PM (4-7 PM)
OP (1-3 PM)
NB
75.7
47.6
43.7
SB
48.9
85.7
48.7
NB
29.8
n/a
n/a
SB
n/a
28.0
24.7
NB
99.1
85.8
SB
71.6
93.3
Not surveyed
Origin/Destination Data
There is no recent origin-destination (OD) survey data in the study area suitable for model
development. Also, as 2007 household travel survey data was also not available, the most
recent OD datasets available for model verification are the 2000 Census Transportation
Planning Package data (CTPP) and 2006 slugger count data. Note that the 2000 CTPP OD
data can only be used to verify commuting trips. Figures 2.11 and 2.12 show the distribution
of origins and destinations (respectively) within the counties that make up the study area,
based on 2000 CTPP OD data5.
Figure 2.11 & 2.12 Location Codes
DC CR – District of Columbia, core
DC NC – District of Columbia, non-core
MTG – Montgomery County
PG – Prince George County
ARLCR – Arlington County, core
ARNCR – Arlington County, non-core
ALX – Alexandria
FFX – Fairfax County
LDN – Loudoun County
PW – Prince William County
FRD – Frederick County
5
CAR – Carroll County
HOW – Howard County
AAR – Anne Arundel County
CAL – Calvert County
STM –St.Mary’s County
CHS – Charles County
FAU – Fauquier County
STA – Stafford County
CL/JF – Clarke County, VA/Jefferson County, WVa
SP/FB – Fredericksburg/Spotsylvania County
KGEO – King George County
National Capital Region Transportation Planning Board, “NCRTPB Travel Forecasting Model, Version 2.2, Specification,
Validation, and User’s Guide”, March 1, 2008.
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Figure 2.11 - 2000 CTPP Trip Origin (Auto Driver)
2000 Trip Origin
30%
Traffic Distribution (%)
25%
20%
15%
10%
HOW
AAR
CAL
STM
CHS
FAU
STA
CL/JF
SP/FB
HOW
AAR
CAL
STM
CHS
FAU
STA
CL/JF
SP/FB
CAR
FRD
PW
LDN
FFX
ALX
ARNCR
ARLCR
PG
MTG
DC NC
0%
DC CR
5%
Figure 2.12 - 2000 CTPP Trip Destination (Auto Driver)
2000 Trip Destination
30%
Traffic Distribution (%)
25%
20%
15%
10%
2.8
CAR
FRD
PW
LDN
FFX
ALX
ARNCR
ARLCR
PG
MTG
DC NC
0%
DC CR
5%
Truck Traffic
Figure 2.13 shows the 2005 average daily truck traffic percentage along selected segments
of I-95/I-395 between SR-110 in Arlington County and Mudd Tavern Road in Spotsylvania
County. Truck traffic proportions diminish from around 18% in Spotsylvania to 10% in Prince
William County, down to 3% north of the Fairfax County Line.
15
Towards D.C.
16
Thornburg
SR 208
Fall Hill Ave
Forbes St
Garrisonville Rd
Fuller Rd
NCL Dumfries
US 1 Fraley Blvd
South Int.
Gunston Rd
SR 241
King St
Glebe Rd
Truck %
Mudd Tavern Rd
US 1
SR 3
Warrenton
Courthouse Rd
Garrisonville
Russell Rd
Joplin Rd
Dumfries Rd
Dale Blvd
Prince William Pkwy
Occoquan River
US 1
Old Keene Mill
Fairfax County Line
Duke St
Seminary Rd
King St
Quaker Lane
SR 120
SR 27
SR 110
AADT
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I-95/I-395 Corridor Review
Figure 2.13 - 2005 Average Daily Truck Profiles of I-95 (SR 110 to Mudd Tavern Road)
50,000
40,000
30,000
20,000
10,000
0
Figure 2.14 - 2005 Average Daily Truck Profiles along US 1 (Glebe to Thornburg)
20%
15%
10%
5%
0%
I-95/I-395 HOT Lane
I-95/I-395 Corridor Review
Figure 2.14 shows the 2005 average daily truck traffic percentage along selected sections of
US-1 between Glebe in Arlington County and Thornburg in Spotsylvania County. Average
daily truck proportions on US-1 are lower than I-95/I-395, and relatively consistent along US-1
at 2-3%, rising only at Thornburg to around 5%.
2.9
Land Use and Economic Trends
Land use and economic data are fundamental to the development of the transport models
and the derivation of future traffic forecasts for the I-95/I-395 project. This section provides an
overview of the demographics and economic indicators for the region.
Population Growth
The population for selected jurisdictions in the study corridor and the state of Virginia is
shown in Table 2.2 for 1990 to 2000. Between 1990 and 2000, the population of Virginia has
increased steadily at 1.3% per annum The population in the central jurisdictions has
remained relatively stable, whereas the inner suburbs of the region have grown at 1.7% per
annum. With a growth of 3.2% per annum, the outer suburbs have been experiencing the
fastest growth rate.
Table 2.2 - Historic Population for Selected Jurisdictions (1990-2000)
Selected Jurisdictions
1990
2000
District of Columbia
606,900
572,100
-0.6%
Arlington County
171,200
189,200
1.0%
City of Alexandria
111,500
129,100
1.5%
Annual Growth
1990-2000
889,600
890,400
0.0%
Montgomery County
Central Jurisdiction
74,300
83,600
1.2%
Prince George's County
27,600
33,200
1.9%
Fairfax Co./City/Falls Church
851,100
1,007,100
1.7%
953,000
1,123,900
1.7%
Prince William County
216,600
283,800
2.7%
Stafford County
62,600
93,600
4.1%
Inner Suburbs
City of Fredericksburg
19,400
19,300
-0.1%
Spotsylvania County
58,800
91,600
4.5%
357,400
488,300
3.2%
6,216,900
7,104,100
1.3%
Outer Suburbs
Virginia
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Virginia Employment Commission.
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Employment Growth
Figure 2.15 shows total employment for the Washington-Arlington-Alexandria Metropolitan
Statistical Area, DC-VA-MD-WV (MSA)6 from 1969 to 2006. In 2006, there were 3.8 million
jobs in the DC-VA-MD-WV area. The average employment growth rate during 1969 to 1982
was 2% per annum, followed by a sudden increase in employment growth at a rate of 4.4%
per annum between 1983 and 1990. Thereafter, the growth rate has been maintained at
approximately 2% per annum.
Based on recent growth trend analysis for 2005-2030 done by the National Capital Region
Transportation Planning Board (NCRTPB)7, job growth in Northern Virginia is anticipated to
outpace growth in the Maryland suburbs and the District of Columbia. Despite the significant
percentage increases in employment in the outer suburbs of Virginia and Maryland, the
central jurisdictions and inner suburbs will still have the highest levels of employment.
Figure 2.15 - Employment for DC-VA-MD-WV area (1969-2006)
Em ploym ent (1969-2006)
4,500,000
3.83 m illion
4,000,000
3,500,000
3,000,000
2,500,000
2,000,000
1,500,000
1,000,000
500,000
0
1969
1973
1977
1981
1985
1989
1993
1997
2001
2005
Year
Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis.
6
The DC-VA-MD-WA Metropolitan Statistical Area includes: District of Columbia (DC), Calvert (MD), Charles (MD), Frederick (MD),
Montgomery (MD), Prince George’s (MD), Arlington (VA), Clarke (VA), Fauquier (VA), Loudoun (VA), Stafford (VA), Warren (VA),
Alexandria (VA), Fairfax, Fairfax City + Falls Church (VA), Spotsylvania + Fredericksburg (VA), Jefferson, WV.
7
The National Capital Region Transportation Planning Board, “Growth Trends to 2030: Cooperative Forecasting in the Washington
Region (Fall 2007)”, http://www.mwcog.org/planning/planning/trends/, June 2008.
18
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Real Gross Domestic Product (Real GDP)
Real GDP/capita is used as a proxy for average incomes in modeling responses to tolls.
Figure 2.16 compares the Virginia Real Gross Domestic Product (Real GDP) and Maryland
real GDP against the real GDP of the United States. Between 1997 and 2006, National GDP
has increased at 3% per annum. By contrast, Maryland has increased at 3.5% per annum,
while Virginia has increased at 4% per annum.
Figure 2.16 - Gross Domestic Product from 1997 to 2006
Gross Dom estic Product (1997-2006)
150
Maryland
Virginia
United States
140
Index (1997 = 100)
130
120
110
100
90
80
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
Year
Further information about how forecast values of GDP/capita are used in the analysis can be
found in Chapter 4.
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I-95/I-395 HOT Lane
Review of Existing HOT Lanes
3
Review of Existing HOT Lanes Facilities
There are a number of HOT lane facilities currently operating in North America that differ in
operational or organizational set-up. It is therefore important to understand the features of
individual schemes, in particular including the similarities and differences, and consider the
experiences elsewhere when considering the potential demand for the I-95/I-395 HOT lanes.
The following sections provide an overview of existing HOT lanes facilities, as well as several
facilities that are in the construction or planning phases.
Existing HOT lanes in North America typically operate on heavily congested corridors feeding
major business districts. They range from 6 to 38 miles in length, but most are around 10
miles long. While some only offer free usage to HOV3+ vehicles (as proposed for the I-95/I395 HOT lanes), most currently allow free access to vehicles with two or more occupants
(HOV2+). A common feature though is that in most cases trucks are not permitted to access
the HOT lanes. Toll charges for existing facilities vary from a simple monthly fee for access to
complex dynamic charges that vary according to congestion levels. Often the HOT lane
facilities will restrict traffic volumes such that they deliver a minimum level of service (such as
LOS B) or travel speed (e.g. 55mph). Table 3.1 includes some summary information.
3.1
Existing HOT lanes in North America
91 Express Lanes
The 91 Express Lanes in Orange County, CA opened in 1995 as
the nation’s first facility to implement value pricing and the first fully
automated tollway in the world. Only vehicles with valid FasTrak
transponders are permitted to enter the Express Lanes. The facility
is a ten mile 12-lane highway consisting of four general purpose and two HOT lanes in each
direction. The HOT lanes operate in the median and are separated from the adjacent GP
lanes by a painted buffer and pylons, with access only permitted at the end points.
SOV and HOV2+ are required to pay a toll to use the HOT lanes. Toll rates vary by time of
day on a pre-set schedule, from $1.25 to a maximum of $9.50 (note that the $9.50 toll only
applies in the eastbound direction between 3pm to 4pm on Fridays, and is the highest per
mile toll for any toll road in the country). The highest toll in the morning rush hour, 7am to
8am westbound Monday to Thursday is $4.35. HOV3+ are generally permitted to use 91
Express Lanes without paying a toll, with the exception on weekdays between 4pm and 6pm
in the eastbound direction, a toll discounted by 50% has to be paid by HOV3+. There are
several discount incentive plans offered to customers. For example, for a $20 per month fee,
customers can belong to the ‘91 Express Club’, which offers a $1.00 discount on every trip.
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Annual daily traffic on both GP and HOT lanes is approximately 335,000, with the HOT lane
volume close to 40,000 per day. Average travel time savings for users over the 10 mile
section is typically 20-25 minutes. Annual toll revenue in 2007 was approximately $40 million.
with the average toll paid per trip around $3.00.
I-15 Express Lanes
An 8-mile reversible HOV facility was opened on Interstate 15 (I15), a major north-south urban freeway in San Diego California,
in 1988. An initial attempt was made to increase the usage of
the HOV lanes in 1996, by issuing permits to use the HOV lanes irrespective of vehicle
occupancy. Permits were distributed on a first-come/first-served basis for a fixed fee of $50
per month. In 1998, the HOV lanes were converted to a fully electronic reversible HOT lanes.
In September 2008, a new 4.5 mile section opened offering two HOT lanes per direction.
Further expansion plans envisage extending the facility to a length of over 20 miles by 2012.
Over the original 8 mile section, I-15 is a 10-lane facility with four general purpose lanes in
each direction (some parts have five lanes) and a median HOT lane facility consisting of two
reversible lanes. The completed facility will provide flexible entry/exit locations at 30 locations
with four HOT lanes (generally two in each direction) over the entire length, and a moveable
median barrier that would allow 3:1 tidal operation during the busiest time periods. The
reversible section operates in the southbound direction (inbound commute) from 5:30am to
12:00pm Monday to Friday, with northbound direction (outbound commute) operation from
1pm to 7pm It has northbound-only operation for 24-hours on Saturdays and Sundays.
The system allows HOV2+ carpools, vanpools, buses and motorcycles to use the facility free
of charge. Dynamic tolling is featured, using the FasTrak electronic toll collection system.
Rates vary between $0.50 and $8.00 depending on congestion levels. Fees are posted at the
entry points and can change every 6 minutes as required to preserve LOS C conditions in the
HOT lanes. The newly opened 4.5 mile section operates in two directions for 24 hours per
day and currently offers an introductory rate of $0.50 to use this segment. Traffic on I-15
ranges from 170,000 to 295,000 vehicles per day. Total HOT lane volume is approximately
20,000 vehicles per day, of which 75% (of weekday traffic) can use the lanes without paying a
toll. Toll-paying HOT lane traffic generates approximately $2 million per year in revenues.
Katy Freeway
Houston’s Katy Freeway HOV lane opened in 1984 as a 12-mile
reversible median facility open to buses and vanpools. Over the
following decade, several changes were made to allow others to
use the HOV lane, in an effort to improve utilization. In 1998,
QuickRide was introduced which enabled vehicles with two or more occupants (HOV2+) to
access the lanes during peak hours for a $2 charge. Vehicles with three or more occupants
21
I-95/I-395 HOT Lane
Review of Existing HOT Lanes
(HOV3+) are permitted to use the facility at all times free of charge. HOV2+ trips remain free
during off-peak hours. Single-occupant vehicles are barred at all times. QuickRide features
an electronic transponder (Trip Tag) which can be used on six HOV lanes in the Houston
Metro area. In 2006, average daily traffic on the Katy freeway was around 250,000 per day.
In 2008, the Katy Freeway was widened from 11 lanes to 18 lanes between I-610 and State
Highway 6, including four main lanes, three frontage road lanes and two toll (or ‘managed’)
lanes in each direction over a 23 mile length. The managed section is a transponder only
facility, with electronic fee collection at three on-line tolling locations, with multiple access
points via slips and direct access ramps. For an initial period (to spring 2009), Metro and
school buses are permitted to use ‘managed’ facility free of charge at all times. Motorcycles
and HOV2+ will have free access during HOV hours (5am-11am and 2pm-8pm). Following
this initial period, the lanes will be open to SOV traffic during non-peak hours on payment of a
toll. Depending on congestion levels in these trials, SOVs may also be permitted to use the
lanes during peak hours on payment of an appropriate toll. The second phase is anticipated
to involve a dynamic pricing scheme, in order to maintain a minimum speed of 45 mph.
MnPass 394
Eleven miles of HOV lanes were constructed on I-394 in Minneapolis,
Minnesota, in 1988, subsequently being converted to HOT lanes in May
2005 (MnPass). I-394 is a 6-lane facility with two general purpose and
one HOT lane per direction. MnPass was the first HOT lane facility implemented in the United
States without barrier-separation, using just ‘diamond’ lanes. Over the 8 miles between I-494
and Minnesota State Highway 100 (MIN-100), HOT lanes are separated from other traffic
lanes by double white lines, with limited entrance and exit points. For the remaining 3 miles
between MIN-100 and I-94 downtown, the HOT lanes form a reversible facility separated from
other lanes by concrete barriers. This segment operates tidally to accommodate eastbound
traffic in the morning and westbound traffic in the afternoon. The white line separated and
reversible expressway section has multiple mid-point access locations.
MnPass 394 uses a dynamic pricing system. Tolls generally range from $1 to $4, and have a
potential maximum of $8. Prices are set to ensure minimum speeds of 50-55 mph. General
traffic is restricted from 6am to 9am into Minneapolis (westbound) and from 3pm to 6pm from
Minneapolis to the suburbs (eastbound). Other hours are charged at $0.25 on the reversible
section, but are free on the one-way section. SOVs were previously allowed to use the lanes
without paying a toll in off-peak times, but subsequently only permitted when the lanes are
designated as ‘open’ on variable-message signs. The lanes are free to buses, motorcycles,
and HOV2+, regardless of time of day, and these vehicles do not require transponders to use
the lanes. In 2006, the average daily traffic on I-394 ranged from 100,000 to 150,000. Annual
toll revenue was estimated at approximately $1.5 million per year.
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I-95/I-395 HOT Lane
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I-25 Express Lanes
The Denver I-25 Express Lanes opened in 2006. Interstate 25 (I-25) is an 8lane facility consisting of three general purpose lanes per direction and two
reversible express lanes operating in the median over a 6.6 mile section
between downtown Denver and 70th Avenue. HOV2+, buses, and motorcycles
travel without paying a toll as long as they are in the lane marked ‘HOV’ when
they pass through the toll collection points near 58th Avenue. The HOT lanes
operate 20 hours a day, closing to reverse the facility direction. Tidal operation
sees southbound use into Denver until 10am, closure until 12pm and the reverse direction
thereafter. Toll rates for the I-25 Express Lanes vary by time of day on a fixed schedule (from
$0.5 to $3.25 per trip) and are collected automatically with an ExpressToll transponder. Total
average daily traffic is approximately 240,000, with 12,000 using the express lanes and
approximately 4,000 paying the toll. In 2008, annual toll revenue was $2.5 million.
SR-167 Good To Go
SR-167 south of Seattle WA is a 6-lane facility with two general
purpose lanes and one HOT lane per direction on a 9 mile section
between Renton and Auburn. The HOT lanes opened in May 2008
as a pilot project. HOV2+, buses and motorcycles can access the
lanes free of charge. The lanes operate in both directions between 5:00 a.m. to 7:00 p.m. and
feature dynamic tolling using the ‘Good To Go’ electronic transponder system. There are no
toll booths. Readers above the HOT lane interrogate transponders when drivers pass under
one on entering the HOT lane, and a toll will debit from their preset account electronically. A
white light also flashes so that state patrol can see they are legally entering the lane. A
‘shield’ is used to deactivate the transponder when driving in a carpool. SOV tolls range
between $1 and $9, depending on where the driver enters the HOT lane and congestion
levels. Average daily traffic is approximately 120,000, with daily HOT lane volume of 19,000
of which only around 1,250 pay a toll. In the short time that SR-167 has been operational; it
has averaged monthly revenues of $25,000.
I-15 Express Lanes
The I-15 in Salt Lake City is an 8-lane facility with three general
purpose and one HOT lane per direction operating over a 38
mile section. The facility opened in September 2006 when preexisting HOV lanes were converted to the HOT (‘Express’) lanes. The facility allows free
access for HOV2+, buses, motorcycles, emergency vehicles and clean fuel vehicles. A
limited number of SOVs can purchase a permit (decal) to access the lanes for a fee of
$50/month. Vehicles can access the Express Lanes at the beginning and end points as well
as at 16 intermediate points along the corridor, indicated by a dotted white line. The
remainder of the Express Lanes is marked with a double white line, providing a two-foot
buffer between the general purpose and Express Lanes. The Utah Department of Transport
23
I-95/I-395 HOT Lane
Review of Existing HOT Lanes
(UDOT) allows up to 2,200 registered SOVs per month to use the facility (the number is
restricted to ensure that speeds do not fall below 55 mph). Plans are underway to implement
electronic payment with congestion pricing in 2010.
3.2
HOT lanes Proposed or Under Development
I-95 Express – Miami
I-95 in Broward County Miami is a 6-lane facility with two general purpose
lanes and one HOV lane per direction. An HOV lane facility has recently been
constructed in the median, and it is now proposed to convert this to a HOT
lane facility. The intention is to incorporate a moveable barrier to allow the HOT lanes to be
reversible and electronic variable pricing. Eventually, the lanes will stretch from I-395 in
Downtown Miami to Broward Boulevard in Fort Lauderdale, a distance of 24 miles. It is
envisaged that tolls will be collected via the Sun Pass transponder, with prices expected to
range between $0.25 and $2.65 for the initial 7 mile section. No toll will be charged to
emergency vehicles, registered vanpools, registered carpools of 3 or more persons
commuting to work, registered hybrid vehicles, motorcycles, public buses, and school buses.
Trucks cannot use the lane. Results from Florida Department of Transportation’s preliminary
feasibility study concluded that variable-priced toll revenues could support most of the capital
costs of the project. An investment grade traffic study is currently underway, with further
activities anticipated to develop an implementation plan, including public education/outreach,
seeking proposals from private-sector developer/operators, and a monitoring/evaluation plan.
I-95 Express Toll Lanes – Baltimore
The I-95 Express Toll Lanes in east Baltimore city is a 10-mile segment that is
currently under construction. Once complete, there will be two express lanes
and four general-purpose lanes in each direction. Congestion pricing will be
used to manage the traffic in the express lane.
I-495 Fairfax
The I-495 Virginia HOT Lanes Project, in Fairfax, is a 14 mile facility, currently
under construction and scheduled to open in 2013. Tolls will be dynamically
priced according to congestion levels, as well varying by time of day. Rateswill
range from $0.10 to $1.00 depending on congestion.
I-680 Almeda County Express lanes
The I-680 Express Lane project is located on a 14-mile stretch of
the southbound I-680 between Highway 84 in the north and
Highway 237 in the south of Alameda County, California.
Construction began in late October 2008 to convert an existing HOV lane to an Express lane
with new striping, three specific entry and exit points, overhead electronic signs, and a
24
I-95/I-395 HOT Lane
Review of Existing HOT Lanes
FasTrak electronic toll collection system. The new Express Lane will be separated from
general purpose lanes by triple lines except at entry and exit points. Carpools will continue to
use the lane without charge, while SOVs will be able to use the lane for a toll that will vary
depending on the level of congestion. The operation will be fully electronic. The project is due
to open in late 2010.
LBJ Freeway
The local consensus building team for reconstruction of the LBJ Freeway
(I-635) in north Dallas has recommended that the busiest stretch of the 8lane freeway east of Dallas Fort Worth airport be rebuilt with eight free and
six HOT lanes. The section that is planned for conversion is a total of 9.5
miles. The lanes will provide options for travelers to by-pass general purpose lane congestion
through a value pricing mechanism, which includes dynamic congestion pricing; half price for
HOV usage during rush hours (peak operating periods) as well as other incentives.
C470 Express Lanes
An Express Lanes Feasibility Study (ELFS) was conducted to examine
the feasibility of tolled express lanes to address congestion along the
corridor from South I-25 to West I-70 in Denver. The express toll lane
alternative would add two tolled express lanes in each direction on C-470
between Kipling and I-25. The express lanes would be built using the existing median, and
the existing lanes on C-470 would remain free. Toll collection would be electronic only, with
transponders that can also be used on other facilities, including E-470 and the Northwest
Parkway. Drivers will have access to the barrier-separated express lanes at a number of
locations, generally indirectly through slip ramps, although specific ramps will provide direct
access at two locations. Toll pricing will be variable according to demand, allowing for
consistent free-flow traffic in the express tolled lanes. Estimated opening day peak-hour toll to
travel the entire 12.5-mile corridor will be approximately $2.50.
3.3
Violation of HOT Lane regulations
Traffic counts identifying HOV lane users indicate that violation of the high occupancy rules
can be significant. For instance, in the existing I-95/I-395 HOV lanes, violators can be around
30% of all traffic in the lanes (Table 5.1).
Analysis of existing HOT lane facilities indicates that the violation rate varies greatly. In
particular though, violation rates are dependent on the design of the HOT lanes, tolling
facilities and the degree of involvement from the police in the enforcement of the facility rules.
Information has been found on violation rates for a number of the facilities discussed in this
chapter – presented in Table 3.1.
25
I-95/I-395 HOT Lane
Review of Existing HOT Lanes
Table 3.1 - Violations in existing HOT Lanes
Project
Details
Geometry
Toll structure
Penalty
Violation Rate
SR91 Express
Lanes (Orange
County, CA)
10 miles, 2 lanes in
each direction
Express lanes in a separate
barrier section
Tolls fixed depending on time
of day and day of the week
$1.25 to $9.50
Cost of the toll plus
up to $55 in
additional fees
2%-4%
Route I-15 (San
Diego)
12.5 miles, 2
reversible lanes
with shoulder
Two entry/exit points at the
terminus points. Barrier
section.
Dynamic pricing - $0.50 to $8
depending on distance
travelled, time of day and level
of congestion
$341 moving
violation for first
offense.
15%
I-394 MnPass
Express Lanes
(Minneapolis)
10 miles, 1 lane in
each direction
Access points through
breaks in double white line
to correspond with a gantry
Dynamic pricing to maintain
traffic at 55mph – peak hour
ave $1-$4, $0.25 min, $8 max
$142 fine.
Partnerships with
local police
departments.
4% in reversible
section; 9% in
diamond lane section
I-25 Express
Lanes (Denver)
7 miles, 2 lanes in
one direction (1 for
HOV2+, 1 for Toll
User)
Express lanes in a separate
barrier section with specific
entry and exit points
depending on time of day
Set tolls depending on time of
day: $0.50 - $3.50
$70 fine
AM – 10%
PM – 30%
I-15 Express
Lanes (Salt
Lake City)
38 miles, 1 lane in
each direction
19 access points which
consist of a 3000-9000 feet
break in the double white
line. In addition 4 entry/exit
points.
Fixed permit system currently
of $50/month for solo drivers.
Will be converting to an ETC
system in 2010 to maintain
speeds at 55mph.
$82 fine
2 week blitz March
2007 – 216 citations
for solo drivers
without a decal; 82
citations for crossing
the double white line.
SR167 (Seattle)
9 miles, 1 lane in
each direction
Access points through
breaks in double white line
to correspond with a gantry
Dynamic pricing to maintain
traffic at 55mph. Average toll
$1.07, highest $6 (at Nov 08)
Minimum of $124
<5%
QuickRide
System
(I-10 & US 290,
Houston)
13 miles on I-10, 10
miles on US 290
Single-lane reversible in a
separate barrier section
Free for HOV 3+ drivers, $2
each way for HOV 2 drivers.
$57.50 total initial set-up fees
Maximum $200
fine. Enforcement
by METRO police
stationed at HOV
lane exit locations.
55%-65% (2005)
26
I-95/I-395 HOT Lane
T&R Forecast Assumptions
4
Traffic & Revenue Forecasting Assumptions
The methodology employed to produce the independent traffic and revenue forecasts in this
study has two basic stages.
•
•
Initially, a traffic model is used to develop traffic volumes for the modeled time
periods (AM and PM peaks and Off-Peak in 2015 and 2030).
These results are then ‘post-processed’ to determine revenue from HOT lane tolls,
as well as to scale the modeled values to daily and annual figures.
Development of the traffic model itself consists of two stages, including setting-up the Base
Year model (2005), and subsequently using this as the basis for two future-year models
(2015 and 2030). Chapters 5 and 6 describe development of the base year and future year
traffic models respectively.
The remainder of this chapter sets out some key parameters and assumptions used in both
the traffic modeling and post-processing.
4.1
Value of Time (VOT) and toll escalation
A key parameter (in particular latterly for the toll diversion model) is the value of time. Values
of time of $15.10 per hour for autos and $30.20 per hour for heavy trucks have been used.
Note that these values are for 2005, to coincide with the model base year. These are based
on a benchmark analysis of Halcrow’s in-house database of values of time and GSP/capita
across North America. In 2005, Halcrow’s database gives an equivalent VOT range for North
America of US$11.50-18.00 per hour, with an average of US$14.00 per hour. The VOT of
$15.10 is slightly above the average in Halcrow’s database, consistent with economic factors
in the study area compared to average values. Halcrow does not have an equivalent dataset
for trucks, but has found that the overall ratio between heavy truck and car values of time is
typically 2.0. Hence, in practice, tolls charged for trucks are typically 2-3 times those charged
to cars.
It is generally accepted that willingness to pay for time-savings increases with income and,
assuming that economic growth outperforms population growth, over time as well. Real
GDP/capita is used as a proxy for average incomes, and an elasticity of VOT to GDP/capita
of 0.75 has been assumed for this study.
Increases in the value of time (over time) are also exhibited by truck drivers, largely reflecting
real increases in their salaries. On this basis it can be argued that the elasticity of truck
drivers’ VOT to GDP/capita is close to unity. Historically, the range used by most economists
27
I-95/I-395 HOT Lane
T&R Forecast Assumptions
is between 0.5 and 1.0 but many of the later assessments tend to the higher end of this
range. Table 4.1 provides a summary of our Real GDP/Capita assumptions between the
model years of 2015 and 2030.
Table 4.1 - Real GDP/Capita Assumptions
Year
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
2030
Real
GDP/Capita
1.7%
1.7%
1.7%
1.6%
1.5%
1.5%
1.5%
1.5%
1.5%
1.5%
1.5%
1.5%
1.5%
1.4%
1.4%
1.4%
Chapter 8 provides details of value of time sensitivity testing.
4.2
Vehicle Operating Costs (VOC)
The auto and truck operating costs (e.g., fuel and oil, maintenance and tires) were adjusted to
represent 2005 conditions using information from the American Automobile Association
(AAA). The vehicle operating costs in 2005 $ are as follows:
•
•
Car: 16.7 cents/mile
Truck: 44.9 cents/mile
Chapter 8 has details of the vehicle operating cost sensitivity testing.
4.3
Annual Expansion Factor
The annual expansion factor will be a function of the level of congestion during weekends,
VOT and vehicle occupancy by different trip purposes. Considering overall traffic counts, our
examination of traffic count data along the I-95/I-395 corridor indicates high expansion factors
from average weekday conditions (as represented by the traffic model) to annual totals. A
selection of annualization factors are shown in Table 4.2, indicating that values for the
corridor are approximately 350 at the northern end and even higher (360+) at the southern
end. This suggests that traffic volumes on weekends are as high as those on weekdays.
28
I-95/I-395 HOT Lane
T&R Forecast Assumptions
However, while this may be the case in terms of overall traffic volumes on the corridor, a
factor of 350 is unlikely to be appropriate for expanding daily HOT lane volumes. This is
because a high proportion of weekend trips are likely to be leisure orientated and thus
discretionary, and with greater tendency towards carpooling. In addition, traffic volumes on
weekends are less likely to result in high directional peak periods.
Table 4.2 – Observed Annualization Factors
Route
Location
Factor
I-95
I-95
I-395
I-395
I-395
Thornburg to Massaponax Church Rd
Courthouse Rd to Garrissonville Rd
Courthouse Rd to Garrissonville Rd
Edsall Rd to Duke Rd
Edsall Rd to Duke Rd
385
365
362
348
350
There is limited detailed information available from similar HOT lane facilities about their use
at weekends and off-peak. Information is available for SR91 in California, which has a similar
set of annualization factors overall to the I-95/I-395 corridor. The SR91 data indicates that an
annualization factor from average weekday to annual total of 297 has been observed for the
last 5 years. Recent data indicates that this may have risen slightly, so we have assumed a
figure of 300 in the main forecasts for this study.
Additional analysis on weekend travel characteristics has also been carried out to estimate
likely upper and lower ranges of annual expansion factors, which have in turn been
considered through the sensitivity tests.
Chapter 8 has details of the annualization sensitivity testing.
4.4
Ramp Up
The traffic model effectively forecasts a sudden increase in demand for the HOT lanes.
However, in practice, this increase in traffic is not likely to happen immediately on opening,
and may take some time to materialize fully. This is common to all toll roads (and transport
facilities in general) and is known as ‘ramp-up’, and it tacitly takes into account both short and
long term decisions on the part of drivers, which could include changing jobs, moving houses,
etc as well as more straightforward re-routing or carpooling.
As the HOT lanes represent an improvement rather than an entirely new facility, and the
majority of the traffic on the HOT lanes is likely to be locally diverted traffic, the ramp-up effect
is likely to be smaller than for a new facility, though the introduction of a toll option to a
previously free facility may lead to some initial resistance to pay.
29
I-95/I-395 HOT Lane
T&R Forecast Assumptions
The basic ramp-up assumption employed in this study is similar to that observed when SR91
opened its HOT lane facilities. Therefore, in the opening year, the ramp-up factor is 60% of
the forecast. In year two this rises to 85%, finally reaching 100% in year 3 (and onwards). The
ramp-up factors have been applied separately to the northern and southern sections, to
reflect differing opening years. For the northern section, ramp-up has been applied as follows:
•
•
•
2012 – 60%
2013 – 85%
2014 onwards – 100%
For the southern section it was assumed that only a proportion of traffic using the southern
section would actually be new trips. The remainder of the trips on the southern section would
therefore be existing trips, which had been generated following the opening of the northern
section. This means that the ramp-up factors for the southern section affect a smaller
proportion of the revenue. An analysis was undertaken of traffic using the southern section,
which determined that around 34% of traffic in the southern section consisted of ‘new’ trips.
Ramp-up factors should only be applied to this proportion, the remainder being ramped at
100%. Hence, southern section ramp-up has been applied as follows:
•
•
•
2015 – 86%
2016 – 95%
2017 onwards – 100%
Both lower (conservative) and higher (aggressive) ramp-up factors have also been examined
as part of the sensitivity testing process. Chapter 8 has details of ramp-up sensitivity testing.
4.5
Treatment of growth beyond the model years
The traffic model produces forecasts of traffic volumes for the years 2015 and 2030. These
‘model years’ have been used as the basis for developing a revenue stream from 2012 to
2071. Between the model years (2015-2030), an interpolation function has been used to
identify revenue values for these years.
Beyond 2030 a growth stream has been assumed for HOT lane traffic. This has made use of
the growth rates implied by the differences between 2015 and 2030 model years’ revenue,
which has in turn been calculated from all the assumptions put into the traffic models, and
extrapolated variations of these into the future.
Interpolation between the 2015 and 2030 model years implies a decrementing growth rate
per annum. Generally the rate decreases by around 0.1% per annum over the period
between the model years. An on-going annual rate reduction of 0.1% is therefore assumed to
continue beyond 2030, so that (for example) if the growth rate is 2.6% from 2029 to 2030, it
will be 2.5% from 2030 to 2031, 2.4% from 2031 to 2032 and so on. This is not assumed to
30
I-95/I-395 HOT Lane
T&R Forecast Assumptions
continue indefinitely, but to stop reducing at a residual level of 1% per annum. The point at
which 1% per annum residual growth is reached varies according to the relationship between
the 2015 and 2030 model results, but is typically around 2046.
However, it is not appropriate to simply scale the annual revenue by an assumed growth rate,
as this does not immediately take into account that some sections of the HOT lane system
may be reaching capacity. The dynamic nature of the HOT lane system is such that traffic
flow will be controlled, in order not to exceed capacity and maintain appropriate operating
conditions for users. Hence, in growing HOT lane revenues beyond 2030, a capacity capping
mechanism has been introduced. This mechanism considers the capacity and volume on
each section of the HOT lanes (between intersections) and checks that there is capacity for
traffic volumes to rise by the annual rate each year. Where it cannot, because capacity is
reached, the revenue from that section is capped going into the future.
4.6
Inflation
The base year traffic model is calibrated to 2005 traffic volumes using 2005 $ figures for
value of time and vehicle operating costs. Toll and revenue figures are in 2008 $. The annual
rate of inflation is assumed to be consistent with the Consumer Price Index (CPI) increasing
by approximately 2.5% per annum. Note though that inflationary changes to monetary values
are not directly reflected, and the forecasts are inelastic to CPI, as all toll and revenue values
are all quoted in 2008 $.
4.7
Discount Rate
‘Discounting’ is used to compare monetary values that occur in different time periods. It is a
separate concept from inflation, and is based on the principle that people (generally) prefer to
receive goods and services now rather than later – also known as ‘time preference’. A
discount rate is therefore used to convert revenues to ‘present values’, so that they can be
compared, and a present value of the whole revenue stream calculated by summing the yearon-year discounted figures.
Public sector long-term project discount rates vary, but are typically 4-5%8. Higher rates are
typically used in the private sector to account for greater returns and risk. A discount rate of
9% has been assumed in the calculation of present value revenues.
8
For instance the White House Office of Management & Budget, Circular A-94, “Guidelines and Discount Rates for Benefit-Cost
Analysis of Federal Programs” suggests a rate of 4.9% for 30-year projects, though this was nearer to 8% in the early 1990s. The
UK Treasury “Green Book” requires 3.5% (was 6% until 2003). The Government of Canada Regulation suggests 8% for regulatory
interventions and a social preference rate of 3%.
31
I-95/I-395 HOT Lane
Base Year Model
5
Base Year Model – Preparation, Calibration and
Validation
This section describes the preparation, calibration and validation of the 2005 Base Year
Model. Our overall approach consisted of refining the existing NCRTPB model for the
purpose of producing traffic and revenue forecasts for the I-95/I-395 HOT lanes. The model
was validated to 2005 conditions using the following overall methodology:
•
•
•
•
•
Refinements to the zoning system and network, particularly towards the southern
end of I-95/I-395;
Review traffic parameters such as Volume Delay Functions (VDF);
Review auto and truck cost assumptions (see Chapter 4);
Prepare 2005 base year matrices; and
Validate to 2005 conditions using traffic counts and journey time data. Given the
high level of transit usage along the corridor, relevant buses were pre-loaded onto
the highway network in order to accurately reflect existing HOV usage.
Three models were prepared in order to represent the following time periods:
•
•
•
5.1
Morning Peak (AM): 6:00-9:00am;
Afternoon Peak (PM): 4:00-7:00pm; and
Off peak: 1:00-3:00pm.
Data Sources
Traffic Counts
A comprehensive set of historical count data, as well as 2005 counts, classification and HOV
class survey data has been assembled for the validation process. Counts from VDOT’s AADT
reports were analyzed for the timeframe 2001 to 2006. Additional counts collected by Vollmer
in June and July 2006 were used to supplement the VDOT counts. These counts were taken
along the entire I-95/I-395 corridor at various locations, including all ramps.
Journey Time Survey
Journey time surveys were organized by Vollmer in June 2006 and the results are described
in Chapter 2. This information was used to validate the travel times produced by the base
year models.
32
I-95/I-395 HOT Lane
Base Year Model
5.2
Zoning System and Network refinement
The NCRTPB regional model consists of 2,191 traffic zones in the modeled region. This
zoning system was refined in the southern area of the I-95/I-395 corridor in order to provide
more realistic loading of trips onto the network (from the centroid connectors), in turn resulting
in improved link volume estimates. A total of 76 zones were added in the counties of Stafford,
Fredericksburg and Spotsylvania. Figure 5.1 illustrates the new zoning system in the
southern area.
Figure 5.1 - Traffic Zones in the Southern Area
5.3
Volume Delay Functions (VDF)
As part of the calibration/validation exercise, the volume delay functions (VDFs) were reexamined. The VDFs used in the NCRTPB model take the form of a conical volume delay
function which has a very steep slope for freeways. They also include a queuing function
component for ramps and freeways, in a range from 0 minutes at volume/capacity (V/C)
ratios of 0.8 or less, to 14 minutes for V/Cs of 1.4 or higher.
An initial review of the NCRTPB model’s journey time validation during peak hours revealed
that the model significantly overestimated journey time on the I-95/I-395 corridor, which has
possibly led to a decrease in modeled average vehicle miles traveled (VMT) between 2000
33
I-95/I-395 HOT Lane
Base Year Model
and 20309. Given this finding, the VDFs were subsequently replaced with traditional BPR
(Bureau of Public Roads) speed-flow functions and adjusted to match the observed journey
time data. An alpha value of 0.4 and beta value of 7 were determined to give the best
representation of travel times for freeways. Similarly, values of 0.4 and 4 were used for alpha
and beta respectively on at-graded roads. The beta value is higher for freeways as speeds
tend to be close to free flow conditions for light and moderate traffic volumes, before dropping
sharply as demand approaches capacity. The adjusted VDFs proved satisfactory during the
calibration/validation exercise.
The equation of the BPR function is shown below. Figure 5.2 compares the original VDF with
the updated VDF curves for freeways.

 
Length
Volume 
 * 1 + α

60 * 
FreeFlowSp
eed
Capacity

 

β
Figure 5.2 - Adjusted Volume Delay Function (Freeways)
10.0
9.0
8.0
Travel Time (min)
7.0
6.0
5.0
4.0
3.0
2.0
1.0
0.0
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
1.2
1.4
1.6
1.8
2.0
Volum e/Capacity Ratio
5.4
Base Year Matrix Preparation
The NCRTPB model consists of four trip purposes including Home-Based Work (HBW),
Home-Based Shopping (HBS), Home-Based Other (HBO) and Non-Home Based (NHB). It
9
Version 2.1 of the NCRTPB model showed average trip lengths increasing slightly between 2005 and 2030. As part of the latest
NCRTPB model calibration exercise (version 2.2), volume delay functions were revised, resulting in average trip lengths declining
by 6% between 2000 and 2030.
34
I-95/I-395 HOT Lane
Base Year Model
also has other market sectors such as trucks. To undertake base year model calibration, the
following 2005 base year matrices were extracted from the NCRTPB model for the AM, PM
and Off Peak periods:
•
•
•
•
•
SOV – SOVs, commercial vehicles
HOV2 – HOV with 2 occupancy vehicles
HOV3+ – HOV with 3 or more occupancy vehicles
Trucks – Medium/heavy trucks
Airpax – Airport passenger vehicles
The extracted NCRTPB 2005 base year matrices were subsequently validated against
available origin-destination data which included the 2000 census data and OD information on
sluggers, formal HOV3+ and violator/hybrid counts.
2000 Origin-Destination Census Data
In the absence of a corridor origin-destination survey or current household travel survey data,
the 2000 Census Transportation Planning Package data (CTPP) was used to verify the 2005
base year Home-Base Work (HBW) trip matrix from the NCRTPB model.
Figure 5.3 presents the traffic distribution comparison of auto driver HBW trip originating from
Spotsylvania/ Fredericksburg/Stafford between the 2000 CTPP and the 2000 NCRTPB
model. The comparison shows that the NCRTPB 2000 HWB trip matrix has significantly lower
trips between Stafford/Spotsylvania/Fredericksburg and counties in the northern part of the I95/I-395 corridor. As such, adjustments to the 2005 NCRTPB HBW trip matrix were made
based on the CTPP data to increase trips between the southern and northern counties.
Figure 5.3 Location Codes
DC CR – District of Columbia, core
DC NC – District of Columbia, non-core
MTG – Montgomery County
PG – Prince George County
ARLCR – Arlington County, core
ARNCR – Arlington County, non-core
ALX – Alexandria
FFX – Fairfax County
LDN – Loudoun County
PW – Prince William County
FRD – Frederick County
CAR – Carroll County
HOW – Howard County
AAR – Anne Arundel County
CAL – Calvert County
STM –St.Mary’s County
CHS – Charles County
FAU – Fauquier County
STA – Stafford County
CL/JF – Clarke County, VA/Jefferson County, WVa
SP/FB – Fredericksburg/Spotsylvania County
KGEO – King George County
35
I-95/I-395 HOT Lane
Base Year Model
Figure 5.3 - 2000 CTPP Auto Driver vs. 2000 NCRTPB HBW Auto Driver (Traffic
Originated from Spotsylvania/ Fredericksburg/ Stafford)
45%
NCRTPB
35%
30%
25%
20%
15%
10%
KGEO
SP/FB
CL/JF
STA
FAU
CHS
STM
CAL
AAR
HOW
CAR
FRD
PW
LDN
FFX
ALX
ARNCR
ARLCR
PG
MTG
0%
DC NC
5%
DC CR
Traffic Distribution from SP/FB/STA (%)
2000 CTPP
40%
Model Periods
The Halcrow base year models (AM, PM, Off Peak) were calibrated to 2005 observed
morning peak (6am to 9am) counts, afternoon peak (4pm to 7pm) counts and Off peak counts
(1pm to 3pm). The 2005 base year model validation results are shown in Appendix A of the
report. Note that the total number of PM peak period trips is considerably higher than the AM
peak period. The observed time of day profiles shown in Figures 2.6 to 2.8 are selected
segments along the entire corridor. Those hourly profiles were used to expand the modeled
off-peak volume by segments along the I-95/I-395 to represent the remaining 18 hours.
Analysis of Slugger, formal HOV3+ and Violator/Hybrid Counts
In order to accurately model the traffic volume and travel time for the I-95/I-395 corridor, it is
important to determine counts for sluggers, formal HOV3+ carpooling and violators/hybrids on
the HOV lanes. VDOT conducted an HOV classification survey in the fall of 2005 and 2006.
This data was used to estimate the total number of HOV3+ on three locations on the I-95/I395 corridor located near the Capital Beltway, namely:
•
•
•
Glebe Road Station (inside the Capital Beltway);
Newington Station (outside Capital Beltway); and
Occoquan Station (outside Capital Beltway).
36
I-95/I-395 HOT Lane
Base Year Model
However, it should be noted that the HOV survey did not provide information on sluggers
specifically; in that it only identified numbers of HOV3+ vehicles, hybrids and violators. Table
5.1 summarizes the HOV lanes traffic composition on Glebe Road Station (I-395 inside the
Beltway) and Newington (I-95 outside the Beltway) for 2005 and 2006.
Table 5.1 - HOV Lanes Traffic Composition, Northbound between 06:00-09:00
Total Veh
HOV3+ Veh
Hybrids
Violators
Violators %
2,306
1,645
27%
19%
1,604
1,515
19%
18%
Glebe Road Station - Northbound from 6-9 AM
2005
8,525
4,991
1,228
2006
8,856
6,029
1,182
Newington south of flyover - Northbound from 6-9 AM
2005
8,447
4,996
1,848
2006
8,231
5,051
1,665
The survey indicates that a significant proportion of traffic using the HOV lanes does not
actually comprise HOV3+, but that hybrids and violators make up a significant proportion of
traffic. At Newington, approximately 40% of vehicles were violators and hybrids in both 2005
and 2006 AM peaks. Near Glebe Road Station, the 2005 proportion was also around 40%,
though had dropped to just over 30% in 2006. A more recent survey (fall 2007) at a different
location (nearer the Beltway) identified the total number SOV and HOV2 vehicles at 30%,
which implies a further fall as this figure also includes hybrid vehicles with one or two
occupants.
Based on the HOV class survey data, the approximate split of total HOV3+ and
violators/hybrids on the HOV lanes was obtained. The formal HOV3+ and the sluggers were
then separately determined using 2006 slugger count data10. Figure 5.4 shows the estimated
profile for sluggers and formal HOV3+ carpooling traversing the I-95 corridor in the AM peak
period. A similar profile was also obtained for the PM peak period as illustrated in Figure 5.5.
Note that in the PM peak period, a slight reduction in sluggers was assumed following a
review of the 2006 slugger count data.
The 2006 data provides a matrix of slugger movements in persons. This matrix was
converted to vehicles by assuming that two sluggers were being picked up by one vehicle on
the slug lines. The slugger vehicle matrix was then imported into the model and assigned to
obtain the slug flow along the I-95/I-395 HOV lane. The proportion of sluggers was
subsequently calculated for each segment on the corridor. The average proportion was 40%
of HOV vehicles in the AM peak. A similar procedure was adopted during the PM peak, which
also showed approximately an average of 40% sluggers. Given that the sluggers basically
10
VHB/Vanasse Hangen Brustlin, “Dynamic Ridesharing (Slugging) Data: I-95 Corridor“, June 2006
37
I-95/I-395 HOT Lane
Base Year Model
only operate during morning and evening peaks, we have assumed that sluggers represent
40% of daily HOV3+ in 2005 and 2006. The base year model was calibrated to account for
these additional vehicles.
Figure 5.4 - AM Peak Period Sluggers and Formal HOV3+ on HOV Lanes
AM Peak Period (6:00 - 9:00)
3,500
Sluggers
Formal HOV3+
3,000
Traffic Volume
2,500
2,000
1,500
1,000
500
0
Joplin Rd
Opitz Blvd
Lorton Rd
Franconia Rd
Duke St
Shirlington Rd
Figure 5.5 - PM Peak Period Sluggers and Formal HOV3+ on HOV Lanes
PM Peak Period (16:00 - 19:00)
3,500
Sluggers
Formal HOV3+
3,000
Traffic Volume
2,500
2,000
1,500
1,000
500
0
Joplin Rd
Opitz Blvd
Lorton Rd
38
Franconia Rd
Duke St
Shirlington Rd
I-95/I-395 HOT Lane
Base Year Model
5.5
Validation Results
The results of the model network assignment were compared to independent traffic counts
and travel time surveys in order to assess the model’s ability to reflect these counts and
assess (validate) performance.
Traffic Count Validation
The validation efforts focused on the I-95/I-395 corridor, US Route 1, the Capital Beltway (I495), I-66 and SR236. These key roads include approximately 200 directional count stations.
Appendix A provides a comparison of the AM, PM and Off Peak models relative to the
observed count station data.
The GEH statistic11 is used as a measure of ‘goodness of fit’ between modeled values and
observed counts, and is especially appropriate to reflect the level of error associated with the
magnitude of the count being analyzed. For traffic and revenue studies, a GEH statistic of
less than 10 on individual screenlines has been recommended by some agencies (e.g.
TransFund, New Zealand). The GEH statistic is defined by:
GEH =
(V2 − V1 )2
0.5 × (V1 + V2 )
where V1 and V2 are the estimated and actual flow values.
The RSQ12 of the model fit to observed counts for the AM, PM and Off Peak hours are shown
in Figures 5.6 for the I-95/I-395 corridor. US-1 results are summarized in Figures 5.7 for the
AM and PM peak hours (note that the Off peak counts for US-1 were not consistent, and as
such they were not used during the validation exercise). Finally, the validation results for I495, I-66 and SR 236 have been combined into Figures 5.8 for the AM, PM and Off peak
hours. Overall it can be noted that the validation results are good, with an RSQ varying
between:
•
•
•
0.93 and 0.98 on the I-95/I-395 corridor;
0.91 and 0.94 on US 1; and
0.95 and 0.98 on I-495, I-66 and SR 236.
11
The GEH statistic gets its name from Geoffrey E. Havers, who invented it in the 1970s. The GEH statistics is an empirical formula
that is useful for a variety of traffic analyses, particularly in forecasting and modelling. It is used as a measure of ‘goodness of fit’
between modeled values and observed counts. The statistic is designed to reflect the level of error associated with the magnitude
of the count being analyzed. For example, taking into account that a 10% error on a count of 100 cars is of less significance than
10% error on a count of 3,000 cars.
12
The RSQ represents the root mean square (also known as the quadratic mean or referred to as RMS), and is a measure of how
well the model fits to observed data.
39
I-95/I-395 HOT Lane
Base Year Model
Travel Time Validation
The AM, PM and Off peak models travel time were compared with observed travel time
survey routes on I-95/I-395 (both GP and HOT lanes) and US-1. Table 5.2 summarizes the
travel time validation results.
Overall, there is a good fit between modeled and observed travel times, particularly on the I95/I-395 corridor. Note that the midday model (i.e. off peak) shows a slight over-estimation of
travel time on the GP lanes in the southbound direction. However, this is not of great concern
because the off peak model attempts to validate combined traffic volumes on both GP and
HOV lanes; this is due to a lack of detailed count information during the off peak period.
Table 5.2 - Travel Time Validation Results
AM (6-9 AM)
Road
Description
Type
Courthouse Rd / SR-208 to George
Washington Memorial Parkway
GP
Southern Start / Terminus to George
Washington Memorial Parkway
HOV
I-95 / I-395
US-1
Courthouse Rd / SR-208 to 23rd Street
All
in Arlington County
purposes
PM (4-7 PM)
Obs
Est
-6%
47.6
49.0
8%
85.7
79.2
OP (1-3 PM)
Dir
Obs
Est
% Diff
% Diff
Obs
Est
% Diff
NB
75.7
71.5
SB
48.9
53.0
3%
43.7
48.5
11%
-8%
48.7
55.8
15%
NB
29.8
29.6
-1%
n/a
n/a
SB
n/a
n/a
n/a
28.0
30.7
n/a
n/a
n/a
n/a
10%
24.7
see note (*)
NB
99.1
89.6
-10%
85.8
75.0
-13%
SB
71.6
67.9
-5%
93.3
90.6
-3%
Not surveyed
Note: (*) Given the lack of detailed counts during the off peak period, the validation exercise focused on estimating combined traffic
volumes on GP and HOV lanes. As such, journey time validation efforts on the HOV lane were not feasible.
Figure 5.6a - RSQ of Observed to Model Fit for I-95/I-395
I-95/I-395: Total Volume Comparison GP Lanes (AM Peak)
35,000
R2 = 0.98
Model (veh/3h)
30,000
25,000
20,000
15,000
10,000
5,000
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
Observed (ve/3h)
40
30,000
35,000
I-95/I-395 HOT Lane
Base Year Model
Figure 5.6b - RSQ of Observed to Model Fit for I-95/I-395
I-95/I-395: Total Volume Comparison GP Lanes (PM Peak)
35,000
R2 = 0.93
Model (veh/3h)
30,000
25,000
20,000
15,000
10,000
5,000
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
Observed (ve/3h)
30,000
35,000
I-95/I-395: Total Volume Comparison HOV Lanes (AM Peak)
10,000
Model (veh/3h)
R2 = 0.96
8,000
6,000
4,000
2,000
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
Observed (ve/3h)
41
10,000
I-95/I-395 HOT Lane
Base Year Model
Figure 5.6c - RSQ of Observed to Model Fit for I-95/I-395
I-95/I-395: Total Volume Comparison HOV Lanes (PM Peak)
R2 = 0.94
Model (veh/3h)
10,000
8,000
6,000
4,000
2,000
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
Observed (ve/3h)
10,000
I-95/I-395: Total Volume Comparison GP & HOV Lanes (Off Peak)
18,000
R2 = 0.93
16,000
Model (veh/3h)
14,000
12,000
10,000
8,000
6,000
4,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
Observed (ve/3h)
42
14,000
16,000
18,000
I-95/I-395 HOT Lane
Base Year Model
Figure 5.7 - RSQ of Observed to Model Fit for US 1
US1: Total Volume Comparison (AM Peak)
8,000
R2 = 0.91
7,000
Model (veh/3h)
6,000
5,000
4,000
3,000
2,000
1,000
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
Ob ser ved ( ve/ 3 h)
6,000
7,000
8,000
7,000
8,000
US1: Total Volume Comparison (PM Peak)
8,000
7,000
R2 = 0.94
Model (veh/3h)
6,000
5,000
4,000
3,000
2,000
1,000
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
Observed (ve/3h)
43
6,000
I-95/I-395 HOT Lane
Base Year Model
Figure 5.8a - RSQ of Observed to Model Fit for I-495, I-66 and SR 236
I-495/I-66/SR236: Total Volume Comparison (AM Peak)
Model (veh/3h)
20,500
15,500
R2 = 0.98
10,500
5,500
500
500
5,500
10,500
15,500
Observed (ve/3h)
20,500
I-495/I-66/SR236: Total Volume Comparison (PM Peak)
Model (veh/3h)
20,500
15,500
R2 = 0.96
10,500
5,500
500
500
5,500
10,500
15,500
Observed (ve/3h)
44
20,500
I-95/I-395 HOT Lane
Base Year Model
Figure 5.8b - RSQ of Observed to Model Fit for I-495, I-66 and SR 236
I-495/I-66/SR236: Total Volume Comparison (Off Peak)
Model (veh/3h)
12,500
9,500
R2 = 0.95
6,500
3,500
500
500
3,500
6,500
9,500
Observed (ve/3h)
45
12,500
I-95/I-395 HOT Lane
Future Year Model
6
Future Year Model
Following the validation of the base year traffic models as described in Chapter 5, the next
steps involved the development of future networks, matrices and the HOT Lane toll diversion
model. This chapter sets out steps followed, as well as key information and techniques used.
6.1
Future Networks
Future year road and transit network assumptions were based on the future NCRTPB models
in which the 2006 Financially Constrained Long-Range Plan (CLRP) and the 2007-2012
Transportation Improvement Program (TIP) were included for the northern section. Future
networks in the southern corridor were compared against 2030 Constrained Long Range
Plan. The list of key road network improvements as described in this plan is shown in
Appendix B while Appendix C presents the 2006 CLRP.
The future networks have been coded to allow appropriate use of the proposed HOT lanes, in
line with the project description provided earlier in the report. As such, this adds a third lane
to the existing High Occupancy Vehicle (HOV) lanes on I-95/395 from South Eads Street (Exit
8C of I-395) near the Pentagon in Arlington County, to their existing southern terminus south
of Route 234 (Dumfries Road at Exit 152 of I-95) near Dumfries in Prince William County –
the northern section. Two new lanes reversible HOT lanes would be constructed to extend
the system south from Dumfries to a new southern terminus at Massaponax – the southern
section. Directional use of the HOT lanes is specified to be consistent with the modeled
periods. The preliminary ingress and egress ramps assumed in the traffic model were based
on information provided by VDOT as shown in Appendix D.
6.2
Future Land Use
The NCRTPB model covers approximately 50% of the Fredericksburg MPO region (FAMPO)
and uses land use forecasts from the Cooperative Forecasting Program’s Round 7.1 for
years 2000 through 203013. However, an issue with the NCRTPB land use forecasts is that
the Round 7.1 Cooperative forecasts for the portion of the FAMPO region included in the
NCRTPB model are not consistent with FAMPO’s approved land use forecasts.
Comparison of the two land use forecasts shows that the total employment for the portion of
the FAMPO region included in the NCRTPB model is approximately 14% higher than
FAMPO’s assumption. As such, Halcrow updated the NCRTPB land use forecasts with the
approved FAMPO land use forecasts (both population and employment) provided by FAMPO.
13
National Capital Region Transportation Planning Board, “NCRTPB Travel Forecasting Model, Version 2.2, Specification,
Validation, and User’s Guide”, March 1, 2008.
46
I-95/I-395 HOT Lane
Future Year Model
Additionally, adjustments were made to reflect the latest BRAC assumption by incorporating
approximately 6,400 employments to the Mark Center.
Table 6.1 provides a summary of the 2005, 2015 and 2030 population and employment data
used in the traffic model. Between 2005 and 2015, the total population and employment for
the entire region is estimated to grow at annual rates of 1.4% and 1.7% respectively.
Similarly, annual growth rates between 2015 and 2030 are approximately 1% for both
population and employment.
Table 6.1 - Total Population and Employment (2005, 2015 and 2030)
JURISDICTION
Total Population
Total Employment
2005
2015
2030
2005
2015
2030
577,830
633,130
714,060
745,300
814,030
881,420
0
District of Columbia
1
Montgomery Co.
Md.
940,350
1,034,820
1,147,280
500,280
580,350
670,510
2
Prince George's Co.
Md.
850,540
928,905
990,590
347,600
392,535
517,880
3
Arlington Co.
Va.
199,260
226,540
242,490
194,880
228,650
258,450
4
City of Alexandria
Va.
135,850
149,390
171,090
105,740
119,370
147,910
5
Fairfax Co.
Va.
1,076,410
1,245,205
1,375,910
642,720
784,110
913,510
6
Loudoun Co.
Va.
247,340
355,520
468,540
130,310
204,095
290,750
7
Prince William Co.
Va.
399,870
509,065
613,680
137,880
173,940
217,760
9
Frederick Co.
Md.
220,880
265,565
339,700
122,160
150,345
167,260
10 Howard Co.
Md.
271,990
302,685
324,990
149,290
180,510
219,750
11 Anne Arundel Co.
Md.
513,700
543,750
571,680
271,700
315,720
374,580
12 Charles Co.
Md.
138,000
162,290
204,200
56,480
64,885
69,150
14 Carroll Co.
Md.
169,230
194,800
226,740
61,220
69,210
72,450
15 Calvert Co.
Md.
82,790
93,500
101,390
29,360
33,660
35,560
16 St. Mary's Co.
Md.
93,510
107,800
127,600
52,380
59,665
63,140
17 King George Co.
Va.
21,230
26,850
37,250
7,300
11,400
16,340
18 City of Fredericksburg
Va.
22,260
23,740
28,340
25,070
31,310
41,020
19 Stafford Co.
Va.
109,730
156,250
217,980
35,350
48,630
65,000
20 Spotsylvania Co.
Va.
89,140
121,130
165,040
27,990
38,670
51,900
21 Fauquier Co.
Va.
64,710
86,640
131,210
24,150
31,550
43,370
22 Clarke Co.
Va.
14,060
16,165
18,800
6,350
7,240
8,550
23 Jefferson Co.
W.Va.
46,810
57,060
76,420
18,530
23,585
30,670
6,285,490
7,240,800
8,294,980
3,692,040
4,363,460
5,156,930
Total
Population growth for counties located in the southern section of the I-95/I-395 corridor
(Stafford, Fredericksburg, Spotsylvania and Prince George) are higher than the total regional
growth at around 3% per annum between 2005 and 2015 and 2% per annum from 2015 to
2030. Similar growth rates are also observed for the employment forecast for counties in the
southern section.
47
I-95/I-395 HOT Lane
Future Year Model
6.3
Future Year Matrices
Future year trip matrices (SOV, HOV2, HOV3+, Truck) for 2015 and 2030 were determined
by running the NCRTPB models with the networks and land use assumptions described
above. The resulting trip production and attraction by purpose in each horizon was Fratared14
using the 2005 adjusted matrices. This approach was used as the VDFs in the NCRTPB
model had a notable impact on future trip distribution in the corridor. Additionally, this
approach ensured that the adjusted commuting patterns were reflected in the future. Analysis
of changes in future generalized cost in the Halcrow models suggests that the introduction of
the HOT lanes would not significantly affect trip distribution.
6.4
Model Structure
The NCRTPB model is a conventional four-step model, which consists of trip generation, trip
distribution, modal split and assignment. Future matrices are generated from the NCRTPB
model and used to produce baseline trip matrices in each horizon year according to mode.
As noted earlier, when the 2000 CTPP was used to verify the 2005 Home-based work trip
matrix from the NCRTPB model, this indicated that the matrix generated by the NCRTPB
model has significantly lower number of trips between Stafford/Spotsylvania/Fredericksburg
and counties in the northern part of the I-95/I-395 corridor. Matrices were therefore adjusted,
based on the CTPP data, to increase trips between the southern and northern counties.
The toll diversion model is then applied to the future matrices and iterated until the toll and
non-toll route shares reach convergence (approximately four iterations).
The model structure varies in detail according to the tests being carried out. Figure 6.1
shows the ‘full’ structure with the toll diversion model integrated with the NCRTPB model and
considering the situation where the target minimum traffic speeds in the HOT lanes should be
55 mph. Hence, in this example, once convergence is reached within the toll diversion model,
the next step is to undertake a speed check on the HOT lanes to ensure that the (in this case)
55 mph target minimum speed requirement is maintained. If some sections of the HOT lanes
do not meet the speed requirement, toll rate levels are increased and the toll diversion model
is re-applied. This process is repeated until the minimum speed requirement is achieved
throughout.
14
The Fratar method applies growth factors to the traffic originating at, and/or destined to the zones represented in an OD table,
which is then successively corrected until acceptably balanced.
48
I-95/I-395 HOT Lane
Future Year Model
Figure 6.1 - Model Structure
NCRTPB Model
OD Matrix
Adjustment
HOV2
SOV
HOV3+
Truck
Minimum Toll Rate on HOT Lanes at $0.10/mile
HOT Lanes/GP Lanes Logit Choice
HOV2
Toll
HOV2
Free
SOV
Toll
SOV
Free
Total Vehicles
HOT Lanes
HOV3+
Truck
Total Vehicles
GP Lanes
Assignment
Convergence?
NO
YES
Speed Check on
HOT Lanes
Speed > 55mph
NO
Increase Toll Rate
YES
HOV2
Toll
HOV2
Free
SOV
Toll
SOV
Free
49
HOV3+
Truck
I-95/I-395 HOT Lane
Future Year Model
Toll Diversion Model
Under the proposed HOT lane concept, the use of a HOV lane by SOV or HOV2 is relaxed in
exchange for payment of a variable toll. Thus a typical peak SOV and HOV2 user will be
faced with a route choice: either to use the existing free but congested highway facility with
extended and variable travel time, or pay the HOT toll and benefit from a travel-time saving
as well as a more consistent arrival time. This choice decision is normally modeled using a
logit function to estimate the relative attractiveness of each route, and is analogous to similar
transportation route/mode choice problems. The higher the travel-time difference between the
GP lanes and the tolled HOT lane facility the more SOV and HOV2 users are willing to pay.
Logit-based diversion model
A logit-based diversion model is a conventional and common technique for estimating toll
road traffic. An example of a typical diversion curve resulting from a logit model is shown in
Figure 6.2. The parameters that define the logit based diversion curve can be derived from
stated preference studies of potential users, revealed preferences of actual users of a similar
facility, previous studies, published reports or inferred from the historical relationship between
VOT and GDP/capita. These parameters are a series of coefficients for each of the key
variables (such as time and cost), and can be simplified into coefficients relating to time and
cost and a scaling parameter which defines the steepness of the curve and thus the
sensitivity of the model.
Figure 6.2 - Typical Diversion Curve
EXAMPLE OF DIVERSION CURVE
100%
90%
80%
% share using toll road
6.5
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
120%
140%
toll charge as % of value of time saving
50
160%
180%
200%
I-95/I-395 HOT Lane
Future Year Model
Model Used
For this study, a logit model has been used to estimate HOT lane usage. Parameters have
been derived from existing sources, through a benchmarking exercise using Halcrow’s
database of VOT against GDP/capita data (or GSP/capita). The scaling parameter has been
assumed from previous values derived by Halcrow, and tested in the model for sensitivity.
The logit model estimates the probability of one alternative being chosen over another given
the utility of each option. In the case of HOT lanes, the probability of an SOV or HOV2 user
choosing the tolled HOT lanes over the non-tolled GP lanes is given by:
PHOT =
exp(U HOT )



 exp(U HOT ) + expU GP  



= probability of choosing the HOT lane
= Generalized CostHOT * scaling parameter (λ)
= Generalized CostGP * scaling parameter (λ)
Where:
PHOT
UHOT
UGP
and:
Generalized CostHOT = IVTHOT + (VOC + Toll) * VOT coefficient
Generalized CostGP = IVTGP + VOC * VOT coefficient
The generalized costs include the in-vehicle travel (IVT) time, vehicle operating costs (VOC)
and HOT lane toll costs. The VOT coefficient is used to convert the monetary values into
generalized minutes.
Process
The application of the toll diversion models involves the following steps:
•
•
•
Path building – toll and non-toll paths identified between origins and destinations to
determine travel time, operating costs and toll costs (generalized costs)
Diversion calculations – the diversion model is applied to determine the proportion
of trips using the toll road for each origin and destination. These proportions are
then applied to the horizon year matrices. Separate logit diversion models are
applied to each of the SOV and HOV2 market segments, to determine their
probability of using the HOT lanes.
Assignment – a multi-class equilibrium assignment is used to assign the toll and
non-toll matrices to the network. Note that only the toll users have the option of
using the toll facility. This process includes optimization of speeds in the HOT lane
to ensure the traffic in these lanes moves freely (at a speed of at least 55mph).
This process is repeated until the network travel times and costs converge.
51
I-95/I-395 HOT Lane
Future Year Model
Treatment of HOV3+ and Sluggers
Attempts were initially made during the course of the study to identify appropriate modeling
techniques to assess changes in carpooling behavior that may result from the availability of
HOT lanes. In particular, informal car pooling (known as ‘slugging’) takes place on the I-95/I395 corridor to facilitate access to the existing HOV lanes, which are only available to HOV3+
users, particularly focused on major employment destinations such as the Pentagon.
Recent information on sluggers suggests that this market is growing faster than other
markets15. Therefore, in order to reflect a slowdown in growth for this market, sluggers were
assumed to have the same growth as the formal HOV3+, SOV and HOV2 markets moving
into the future. This assumption is intended to reflect a slight shift from slugging to paying
HOT lane users.
When considering the potential impacts of HOT lanes on the slugging market, it is clear that
the HOT lanes represent an opportunity for people who currently pick up sluggers to choose
whether to continue to pick up sluggers. As such, a percentage of this market may choose to
pay to use the HOT lanes instead of traveling free as a slugger vehicle. However, in order to
model this explicitly, detailed information about the behavior of drivers who pick up slugs is
required. Such information was not available to allow the calibration of a logit model for this
market segment.
As the detailed issues surrounding slugging are not well understood sensitivity tests have
been included to vary the assumptions relating to ‘sluggers’ to determine the impact on traffic
and revenues. In addition, slugging is also included in the risk analysis.
Motorway Bonus
People generally prefer driving on purpose built high-speed highways (motorways, freeways,
etc) because there is less conflicting movement – i.e. traffic is all going in the same direction
and there are no intersections requiring stopping and starting. Note that this is distinct from
the issue that such highways can be congested and hence cause delay over free-flow
journeys, in that they are usually still preferable to the alternatives for many drivers. Hence, a
‘motorway bonus’ has been used in the toll diversion model to reflect this. The bonus takes
the form of a 20% distance-based benefit for relevant links. To further reflect that there will be
a distinct, but similar, advantage for users of the HOT lanes, a further 10% benefit has been
applied to HOT lane links.
15
Virginia Department of Transportation (VDOT), “Analysis of AM Peak Period Travel in Northern Virginia’s I-95 Corridor Outside the
Beltway in the Fall of 2007”, October 27, 2008.
52
I-95/I-395 HOT Lane
T&R Forecasts
7
Traffic & Revenue Forecasts
This Chapter sets out the main traffic and revenue forecasts carried out using the models and
techniques developed in the study (and described in Chapters 4, 5 and 6). There are three
sections in this Chapter:
•
•
•
Throughput tests – these tests are designed to identify the toll rates that would be
required to meet a selection of target minimum speeds in the HOT lanes;
Revenue optimization – this analysis was carried out to identify the maximum toll
rates that can be charged on each segment of the HOT lanes; and
Toll schedule analysis – a realistic toll regime was identified taking the results of the
throughput tests and revenue optimization (Toll Schedule v1).
Detailed results of the throughput tests, the test using revenue optimal toll rates and the test
using Toll Schedule v1 can be found in Appendix E.
7.1
‘Throughput’ Tests
The first full test carried out examined the toll rates and revenue potential of maintaining
speeds in the HOT lanes at or above 55 mph (using the full model structure shown in Figure
6.1). Initially, toll rates were varied for 26 road segments individually, the 26 segments being
derived from proposed interchange locations as shown in Figure 7.1. The speed on each
segment was examined during the modeling process, and the toll rate increased on any
individual segment with an average speed less than 55mph. This results in separate toll rates
for each of the 26 segments. We also examined the toll rates and revenue potential for the
target minimum speeds of 45 mph and 65 mph.
However, it would be impractical to optimize toll rates over each of 26 segments, not least
because this is unlikely to be how toll rates are set in practice. Hence, a similar ‘throughput’
analysis was conducted for six tolling segments (A-F) shown in Figure 7.2. The locations of
these segments have been identified in consultation with VDOT to ensure compatibility with
FTU’s plans for the corridor. In essence, the overall modeling methodology remains the same
for these tests, but tolls are set in blocks, where the rate is the same across each of the
segments in their entirety. Hence, if part of the segment fails the target minimum speed tests,
the tolls across the whole segment are increased accordingly.
Figures 7.3 and 7.4 show the resulting toll rates for each of the ‘6’ segments in 2015 and
2030 respectively, for all time periods. Table 7.1 provides a summary of the revenue for each
of the target minimum speeds in 2015 and 2030, for the ‘26’ and ‘6’ segment approaches.
53
I-95/I-395 HOT Lane
T&R Forecasts
Table 7.1 - Annual Revenue for Target Minimum Speed Thresholds
Speed
Minimum
45 mph
55 mph
65 mph
2015 (2008$)
Toll segment
Annual Rev
($M)
26
6
26
6
26
6
77.1
83.1
92.1
91.8
102.7
90.9
Toll Range
(per mile)
$0.12-$1.46
$0.12-$1.70
$0.12-$2.92
2030 (2008$)
Annual Rev
($M)
174.0
178.9
191.6
172.7
179.2
130.0
Toll Range
(per mile)
$0.14-$1.73
$0.14-$2.16
$0.29-$3.90
Modeled annual revenue ranges from $77.1 (45 mph with 26 segments) to $102.7M (65 mph
also with 26 segments) in 2015. In 2030, the range is $130.0M (65 mph with 6 segments) to
$191.6M (55 mph with 26 segments). Per mile toll rates vary significantly, between $0.12 (the
minimum assumed) and $2.92 in 2015 (depending on location and target minimum speed),
and between $0.14 (minimum) and $3.90 in 2030.
With a target minimum speed of 45 mph, revenues are higher with 6-segments than with 26segments. This indicates that toll rates are below revenue optimal in several places when the
corridor is divided into smaller segments. Aggregating the effects across longer segments
introduces higher tolls than would otherwise be the case, resulting in a higher revenue total.
For the 55 mph throughput tests, there is little difference in revenues in 2015 whether the tolls
are levied over 6 or 26 segments. In 2030, revenue is notably lower with 6-segments. This
indicates that the aggregated toll rates for 6-segments are likely to be beyond revenue
optimal compared to individual segment rates (the reverse of the situation for 45 mph tests).
When the target minimum speed is 65 mph, the resulting toll rates are higher across the
whole corridor, whether 6 or 26 segments are assumed. In particular, this is noticeable in the
northern segments, in order to meet the target minimum speed in the most congested areas.
In 2015, 26 tolling segments and a target minimum speed of 65 mph generates the highest
revenue of all the throughput tests (albeit it is worth noting that the traffic levels are the
lowest). However, by 2030 the need to escalate toll rates to maintain the 65 mph speed target
means that rates are beyond revenue optimal on several segments, thus resulting in lower
overall revenues than the 55 mph scenario (with either 6 or 26 toll segments).
Detailed results of the throughput tests can be found in Appendix E, including an initial
assessment of transactions in the HOT lanes for the 55 mph throughput test.
54
I-95/I-395 HOT Lane
T&R Forecasts
Figure 7.1 - Initial traffic segments
55
I-95/I-395 HOT Lane
T&R Forecasts
Figure 7.2 – Proposed Tolling Segments
A
B
C
D
F
E
56
I-95/I-395 HOT Lane
T&R Forecasts
Figure 7.3a - 2015 AM Peak Toll rates derived from throughput tests
2015 Toll Rates - AM Peak (Throughput tests)
$4.00
$3.80
45mph
55mph
65mph
$3.60
$3.40
$3.20
Toll Rate (2008 $/mile)
$3.00
$2.80
$2.60
$2.40
$2.20
$2.00
$1.80
$1.60
$1.40
$1.20
$1.00
$0.80
$0.60
$0.40
$0.20
A
B
C
D
E
F
Toll Segment (not to scale)
Figure 7.3b - 2015 PM Peak Toll rates derived from throughput tests
2015 Toll Rates - PM Peak (Throughput tests)
$4.00
45mph
$3.80
55mph
65mph
$3.60
$3.40
$3.20
$3.00
Toll Rate (2008 $/mile)
$2.80
$2.60
$2.40
$2.20
$2.00
$1.80
$1.60
$1.40
$1.20
$1.00
$0.80
$0.60
$0.40
$0.20
A
B
C
D
Toll Segment (not to scale)
57
E
F
I-95/I-395 HOT Lane
T&R Forecasts
Figure 7.3c - 2015 Off Peak Toll rates derived from throughput tests
2015 Toll Rates - Off Peak (Throughput tests)
$4.00
45mph
$3.80
55mph
65mph
$3.60
$3.40
$3.20
$3.00
Toll Rate (2008 $/mile)
$2.80
$2.60
$2.40
$2.20
$2.00
$1.80
$1.60
$1.40
$1.20
$1.00
$0.80
$0.60
$0.40
$0.20
A
B
C
D
E
F
Toll Segment (not to scale)
Figure 7.4a - 2030 AM Peak Toll rates derived from throughput tests
2030 Toll Rates - AM Peak (Throughput tests)
$4.00
45mph
$3.80
55mph
65mph
$3.60
$3.40
$3.20
$3.00
Toll Rate (2008 $/mile)
$2.80
$2.60
$2.40
$2.20
$2.00
$1.80
$1.60
$1.40
$1.20
$1.00
$0.80
$0.60
$0.40
$0.20
A
B
C
D
Toll Segment (not to scale)
58
E
F
I-95/I-395 HOT Lane
T&R Forecasts
Figure 7.4b - 2030 PM Peak Toll rates derived from throughput tests
2030 Toll Rates - PM Peak (Throughput tests)
$4.00
45mph
$3.80
55mph
65mph
$3.60
$3.40
$3.20
$3.00
Toll Rate (2008 $/mile)
$2.80
$2.60
$2.40
$2.20
$2.00
$1.80
$1.60
$1.40
$1.20
$1.00
$0.80
$0.60
$0.40
$0.20
A
B
C
D
E
F
Toll Segment (not to scale)
Figure 7.4c - 2030 Off Peak Toll rates derived from throughput tests
2030 Toll Rates - Off Peak (Throughput tests)
$4.00
$3.80
45mph
55mph
65mph
$3.60
$3.40
$3.20
$3.00
Toll Rate (2008 $/mile)
$2.80
$2.60
$2.40
$2.20
$2.00
$1.80
$1.60
$1.40
$1.20
$1.00
$0.80
$0.60
$0.40
$0.20
A
B
C
D
Toll Segment (not to scale)
59
E
F
I-95/I-395 HOT Lane
T&R Forecasts
7.2
Revenue Optimization
In the ‘throughput’ tests, we have assumed that no section of the roadway is allowed to fall
below a target minimum speed threshold. The higher the target speed, the greater the
likelihood that this results in sub-optimal toll rates being required. This is especially the case
when longer, more aggregate, segments are used for tolling. With more relaxed speed
criteria, the impact of segmentation is a less significant issue.
The purpose of revenue optimization therefore is to identify the toll levels that generate the
most revenue in the HOT lanes. In general, revenue rises as tolls increase from a low starting
value, but the elasticity of toll users’ willingness to pay usually results in revenues leveling-off
and ultimately decreasing after reaching a peak toll – the so-called ‘revenue optimal’ rate. In
this analysis, the speed of the traffic in the HOT lanes is not controlled by the modeling
process, in order to allow the maximum revenue (and hence toll rates) to be identified.
For the I-95/395 HOT lanes this is complicated by the requirement for different toll rates at
different locations on the route. Revenue optimal toll rates differ accordingly as well. As such,
the methodology employed applies a series of toll levels across the corridor in its entirety.
Segment revenue totals were then considered separately and compared with the respective
toll rates for the segment, in order to identify optimal toll levels for each segment.
A further complication in assessing the optimum revenue generated by the HOT lanes will be
the ultimate requirement to meet (or exceed) SAFETEA-LU standards for HOV (and HOT)
facilities16. However, the definition of the standards relates to on-going time-series analysis of
the speed profile, requiring exceedance of the 10th percentile situation for compliance with the
minimum speed. The traffic modeling process is essentially calibrated to average ‘neutral’ day
information. It can be argued that this approximates to the 50th percentile speed in a time
series, which is in turn likely to be higher than the 10th percentile required by SAFETEA-LU,
but insufficient evidence has been noted in data available to date to support this. It is also not
clear exactly how the speed criteria will be monitored and used by the HOT lane operator on
a day-to-day basis or to report compliance with SAFETEA-LU standards (over the lengths of
the HOT lanes or over time). A future refinement of the modeling process would therefore
identify the relationship between model speeds, the speeds that are going to be monitored
and the methodology, and to reflect those linkages in the model’s relationship between speed
and toll rates. This will result in a series of toll rates that can be compared to the revenue
optimal rates identified in this study to isolate semi-optimal rates related to speed monitoring
practice and the SAFETEA-LU standards.
16
SAFETEA-LU Standard for Determining Degraded HOV facility states “the operation of a HOV facility shall be considered to be
degraded if vehicles operating on the facility are failing to maintain a minimum average operating speed 90 percent of the time
over a consecutive 180-day period during the morning or evening weekday peak hour periods (or both). A minimum average
operating speed is 45 mph for HOV facilities with a speed limit of 50 mph or greater”
60
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T&R Forecasts
Revenue optimization has been undertaken for the ‘6’ tolling segments, in both the 2015 and
2030 model years, for all three modeled time periods (AM, PM and Off Peak), in total
requiring over 100 model runs.
Methodology
The methodology applied to identify revenue optimum toll rates consists of a series of model
runs where the toll rates change each time. For these tests, the ‘full’ modeling process was
not employed, and the toll levels are fixed, with no variation in relation to speeds. The starting
point was to apply the toll rates from the 55 mph throughput test, as this provides an
indication of the sort of toll levels that may be required to maintain service levels. These toll
rates were systematically increased and decreased, running the models each time.
The outputs from all the model runs were analyzed, and the amount of revenue generated by
each segment identified for every toll rate used. The relationship between toll rates and
revenues was then plotted on revenue/rate curves. The revenue optimal toll rate for the
segment is the toll value point on the curve at which the revenue for the segment peaks.
Figures 7.5 and 7.6 show the resulting revenue curves for 2030 AM and PM by segment.
Table 7.2 provides a summary of the resulting revenue optimal toll rates.
Table 7.2 - Revenue optimal toll rates (2008 $ per/mile)
2015
Segment
2030
CAGR (2015-2030)
AM
PM
OP
AM
PM
OP
AM
PM
OP
Eads-Seminary
A
$1.28
$0.76
$0.49
$1.62
$1.19
$0.58
1.6%
3.0%
1.1%
Seminary-FrSp Pwy
B
$1.10
$0.85
$0.49
$1.19
$1.30
$0.58
0.5%
2.9%
1.1%
FsSp Pwy-Gord
C
$0.43
$0.55
$0.30
$0.65
$0.87
$0.43
2.8%
3.1%
2.4%
Gord-Garris
D
$0.30
$0.55
$0.24
$0.65
$1.01
$0.43
5.3%
4.1%
4.0%
Garris-MtView
E
$0.18
$0.18
$0.18
$0.22
$0.22
$0.22
1.3%
1.3%
1.3%
MtView-Massap
F
$0.49
$0.49
$0.24
$0.58
$0.58
$0.29
1.1%
1.1%
1.3%
In general, in 2015 the revenue optimal toll rates are higher than (or close to) the rates from
the 45 mph and 55 mph throughput tests, excluding the most northerly segment; 65 mph
rates are typically above revenue optimal. In 2030, 55 mph and 65 mph throughput rates are
generally above revenue optimal; 45 mph rates are close to or below. Figures 7.7 and 7.8
illustrate revenue optimal toll rates alongside the throughput rates. Annual revenue estimates
for the revenue optimal test are estimated at $105.7M in 2015, increasing to $210.5M in
2030. Further discussion of the revenue optimal toll rates follows in the next section, in
defining a workable toll schedule.
Detailed results of the test using revenue optimal toll rates can be found in Appendix E,
including an initial assessment of transactions in the HOT lanes for the revenue optimal test.
61
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T&R Forecasts
Figure 7.5 - 2030 AM Peak Revenue Optimization Curve
HOT Lanes - AM Peak - Northbound only - 2030
Eads-Sem
Sem-FrSp Pwy
FrSp Pwy-Gord
Gord-Garris
Garris-MtView
MtView-Massap
$120,000
$100,000
Revenue (3 hr)
$80,000
$60,000
$40,000
$20,000
-
$0.50
$1.00
$1.50
$2.00
$2.50
$3.00
Toll per mile (2008 $)
Figure 7.6 - 2030 PM Peak Revenue Optimization Curve
HOT Lanes - PM peak - Southbound only - 2030
Eads-Sem
Sem-FrSp Pwy
FrSp Pwy-Gord
Gord-Garris
Garris-MtView
MtView-Massap
$120,000
$100,000
Revenue (3 hr)
$80,000
$60,000
$40,000
$20,000
-
$0.50
$1.00
$1.50
Toll per mile (2008 $)
62
$2.00
$2.50
$3.00
I-95/I-395 HOT Lane
T&R Forecasts
Figure 7.7a - 2015 AM Peak Revenue Optimal Toll Rates
2015 Toll Rates - AM Peak
$4.00
$3.80
45mph
55mph
65mph
Revenue Optimal toll rates
$3.60
$3.40
$3.20
$3.00
Toll Rate (2008 $/mile)
$2.80
$2.60
$2.40
$2.20
$2.00
$1.80
$1.60
$1.40
$1.20
$1.00
$0.80
$0.60
$0.40
$0.20
A
B
C
D
E
F
Toll Segment (not to scale)
Figure 7.7b - 2015 PM Peak Revenue Optimal Toll Rates
2015 Toll Rates - PM Peak
$4.00
$3.80
45mph
55mph
65mph
Revenue Optimal toll rates
$3.60
$3.40
$3.20
$3.00
Toll Rate (2008 $/mile)
$2.80
$2.60
$2.40
$2.20
$2.00
$1.80
$1.60
$1.40
$1.20
$1.00
$0.80
$0.60
$0.40
$0.20
A
B
C
D
Toll Segment (not to scale)
63
E
F
I-95/I-395 HOT Lane
T&R Forecasts
Figure 7.7c - 2015 Off Peak Revenue Optimal Toll Rates
2015 Toll Rates - Off Peak
$4.00
$3.80
45mph
55mph
65mph
Revenue Optimal toll rates
$3.60
$3.40
$3.20
$3.00
Toll Rate (2008 $/mile)
$2.80
$2.60
$2.40
$2.20
$2.00
$1.80
$1.60
$1.40
$1.20
$1.00
$0.80
$0.60
$0.40
$0.20
A
B
C
D
E
F
Toll Segment (not to scale)
Figure 7.8a – 2030 AM Peak Revenue Optimal Toll Rates
2030 Toll Rates - AM Peak
$4.00
$3.80
45mph
55mph
65mph
Revenue Optimal toll rates
$3.60
$3.40
$3.20
$3.00
Toll Rate (2008 $/mile)
$2.80
$2.60
$2.40
$2.20
$2.00
$1.80
$1.60
$1.40
$1.20
$1.00
$0.80
$0.60
$0.40
$0.20
A
B
C
D
Toll Segment (not to scale)
64
E
F
I-95/I-395 HOT Lane
T&R Forecasts
Figure 7.8b – 2030 PM Peak Revenue Optimal Toll Rates
2030 Toll Rates - PM Peak
$4.00
$3.80
45mph
55mph
65mph
Revenue Optimal toll rates
$3.60
$3.40
$3.20
$3.00
Toll Rate (2008 $/mile)
$2.80
$2.60
$2.40
$2.20
$2.00
$1.80
$1.60
$1.40
$1.20
$1.00
$0.80
$0.60
$0.40
$0.20
A
B
C
D
E
F
Toll Segment (not to scale)
Figure 7.8c – 2030 Off Peak Revenue Optimal Toll Rates
2030 Toll Rates - Off Peak
$4.00
$3.80
45mph
55mph
65mph
Revenue Optimal toll rates
$3.60
$3.40
$3.20
$3.00
Toll Rate (2008 $/mile)
$2.80
$2.60
$2.40
$2.20
$2.00
$1.80
$1.60
$1.40
$1.20
$1.00
$0.80
$0.60
$0.40
$0.20
A
B
C
D
Toll Segment (not to scale)
65
E
F
I-95/I-395 HOT Lane
T&R Forecasts
7.3
Toll Schedule Analysis
Following on from the throughput tests and identification of a ‘revenue optimal’ toll schedule,
the next step in the assessment provides background information to assist with the selection
of a preliminary toll schedule that could actually be applied in practice. In the first instance,
this schedule is required as a ‘realistic’ toll schedule to be used in sensitivity testing and risk
analysis carried out as part of this study.
In selecting an appropriate toll schedule, some of the issues to be considered include:
•
•
•
Maximizing revenues, while being close to target minimum speeds;
Public acceptability (such as good utilization of lanes, tolls that are similar to other
facilities, etc.); and
Reasonable toll escalation policy.
Maximizing Revenue
Table 7.3a-c show the toll rates derived by the throughput tests for the target minimum
speeds of 45 mph and 55 mph, as well as the revenue optimal analysis. Tables 7.3a-b have
been color coded to highlight where the toll rates have exceeded revenue optimal in order to
meet the minimum speed criteria (cells that are red).
In 2015, a few segments have toll rates that exceed revenue optimal in order to meet the
speed criteria at 55 mph. By 2030, the northern section requires toll rates beyond revenue
optimal in order to meet the 55 mph criteria. It should be noted that for the target minimum
speed scenarios we have assumed the speed cannot fall below the minimum speed between
any interchange within the segment (i.e., the average speed over the segment will be higher).
Table 7.3a - Toll Regime used to maintain 45 mph target minimum speed
Revenue Throughput (45mph)
Toll Regime (2008 $)
2015
Segment
Eads-Seminary
A
2030
AM
PM
OP
AM
PM
OP
$1.46
$0.12
$0.12
$1.73
$1.30
$0.14
Seminary-FrSp Pwy
B
$0.12
$0.85
$0.12
$1.01
$1.30
$0.14
FsSp Pwy-Gord
C
$0.12
$0.24
$0.12
$0.72
$1.30
$0.14
Gord-Garris
D
$0.12
$0.12
$0.12
$0.29
$1.30
$0.14
Garris-MtView
E
$0.12
$0.12
$0.12
$0.14
$0.14
$0.14
MtView-Massap
F
$0.12
$0.12
$0.12
$0.14
$0.14
$0.14
Cost to travel entire length of HOT lane
$11.59
$13.22
$6.90
$28.51
$52.08
$8.18
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T&R Forecasts
Table 7.3b - Toll Regime used to maintain 55 mph target minimum speed
Revenue Throughput (55mph)
Toll Regime (2008 $)
2015
Segment
Eads-Seminary
A
2030
AM
PM
OP
AM
PM
OP
$1.70
$0.61
$0.12
$2.16
$1.59
$0.14
Seminary-FrSp Pwy
B
$0.73
$0.85
$0.12
$1.59
$1.73
$0.14
FsSp Pwy-Gord
C
$0.12
$0.73
$0.12
$0.87
$1.73
$0.14
Gord-Garris
D
$0.12
$0.73
$0.12
$0.87
$2.02
$0.29
Garris-MtView
E
$0.12
$0.12
$0.12
$0.14
$0.14
$0.14
MtView-Massap
F
$0.12
$0.12
$0.12
$0.14
$0.14
$0.14
Cost to travel entire length of HOT lane
$16.59
$30.40
$6.90
$45.07
$72.72
$10.55
Table 7.3c - Revenue Optimal Toll Regime
Revenue Optimal
Toll Regime (2008 $)
2015
Segment
2030
AM
PM
OP
AM
PM
OP
Eads-Seminary
A
$1.28
$0.76
$0.49
$1.62
$1.19
$0.58
Seminary-FrSp Pwy
B
$1.10
$0.85
$0.49
$1.19
$1.30
$0.58
FsSp Pwy-Gord
C
$0.43
$0.55
$0.30
$0.65
$0.87
$0.43
Gord-Garris
D
$0.30
$0.55
$0.24
$0.65
$1.01
$0.43
Garris-MtView
E
$0.18
$0.18
$0.18
$0.22
$0.22
$0.22
MtView-Massap
F
$0.49
$0.49
$0.24
$0.58
$0.58
$0.29
Cost to travel entire length of HOT lane
$28.53
$30.46
$16.40
$39.86
$47.49
$22.76
Speeds
Tables 7.4a-c show the average speed over each segment for the 45 mph and 55 mph
throughput tests and the revenue optimal tolls. Note that the average speeds are notably
higher than the target minimum speed (45 mph or 55 mph), mostly as a result of the
calculation methodology used. For the revenue optimal scenario, speeds are apparently
above a 45 mph target minimum speed implied by SAFETEA-LU. As noted earlier in this
chapter however, whether the speed calculations fit with the monitoring process and timeseries nature of the SAFETEA-LU standard requires further consideration.
It is important to note that where toll rates change significantly between adjacent segments,
this can influence the overall travel speeds. For instance, the 45mph throughput test results in
a toll rate requirement in segment ‘A’ of $1.46 per mile, while in segments ‘B’ and ‘C’ it is only
$0.12 per mile. This attracts more traffic to segments ‘B’ and ‘C’ than the revenue optimal
scenario where the rates are similar in ‘A’ and ‘B’, resulting in slower segment speeds. On
balance, these tables suggest that with some refinement of the toll schedule, the 45-55 mph
speed minimum can be met in 2015, but that by 2030 there may be issues in the north.
Please note that this information is high level and in order to accurately predict speeds the
relationship between monitoring methodology and SAFETEA-LU standards requires further
investigation (as discussed earlier). In addition, to fully validate estimated travel speeds, a full
67
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T&R Forecasts
Highway Capacity Manual (HCM) analysis would be required, making use of the geometric
details of the HOT lane design.
Table 7.4a - Average segment speeds for 45 mph target minimum speed scenario
Revenue Throughput (45mph)
Speed (mph)
2015
Segment
Eads-Seminary
A
2030
AM
PM
OP
AM
PM
OP
45.8
52.8
63.4
49.9
55.2
62.1
Seminary-FrSp Pwy
B
54.5
55.4
63.8
58.0
55.6
62.3
FsSp Pwy-Gord
C
56.3
55.0
63.8
56.3
63.6
59.7
Gord-Garris
D
62.7
56.5
64.0
57.3
64.3
59.9
Garris-MtView
E
64.3
64.1
64.7
60.9
64.5
62.6
MtView-Massap
F
64.4
65.0
65.0
61.3
65.1
64.7
Table 7.4b - Average segment speeds for 55 mph target minimum speed scenario
Revenue Throughput (55mph)
Speed (mph)
2015
Segment
Eads-Seminary
A
2030
AM
PM
OP
AM
PM
OP
57.2
59.5
63.4
59.5
61.4
62.1
Seminary-FrSp Pwy
B
62.5
61.0
63.8
63.3
62.3
62.7
FsSp Pwy-Gord
C
60.4
64.6
63.8
63.5
64.7
61.2
Gord-Garris
D
63.2
64.8
64.0
64.3
64.8
62.5
Garris-MtView
E
64.4
65.1
64.7
64.5
65.0
63.5
MtView-Massap
F
64.5
65.1
65.0
63.2
65.1
64.9
Table 7.4c - Average segment speeds for Revenue Optimal Toll Regime scenario
Revenue Optimal
Speed (mph)
2015
Segment
AM
PM
2030
OP
AM
PM
OP
Eads-Seminary
A
57.5
59.8
65.4
50.9
53.6
65.2
Seminary-FrSp Pwy
B
63.7
61.1
64.9
59.4
53.0
64.7
FsSp Pwy-Gord
C
64.4
63.9
64.8
59.6
58.2
64.7
Gord-Garris
D
64.8
64.7
64.9
63.7
62.3
64.7
Garris-MtView
E
65.0
65.1
65.1
64.7
64.6
65.0
MtView-Massap
F
64.9
65.1
65.1
64.5
65.1
65.1
Acceptability
From a public acceptability perspective, an important issue is the utilization. Tables 7.5 and
7.6 show average volume/capacity ratios by segment for the 45mph throughput and revenue
optimal tests, as a measure of lane utilization. At 45 mph HOT lane utilization is reasonable
throughout the day. With revenue optimal tolls, utilization is reasonable in the north during the
peaks, but low in the south. Given that the revenue curves are relatively flat in the south, this
would suggest the selection of a lower toll rate in the south.
68
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T&R Forecasts
Table 7.5 - Lane utilization for 45 mph target minimum speed toll schedule
Revenue Throughput (45mph)
HOT Lane usage (Volume/Capacity)
2015
Segment
2030
AM
PM
OP
AM
PM
OP
Eads-Seminary
A
96%
88%
44%
90%
83%
48%
Seminary-FrSp Pwy
B
88%
89%
44%
83%
89%
50%
FsSp Pwy-Gord
C
84%
86%
43%
85%
63%
52%
Gord-Garris
D
67%
84%
39%
80%
54%
50%
Garris-MtView
E
61%
66%
37%
80%
61%
50%
MtView-Massap
F
51%
34%
24%
69%
36%
32%
Table 7.6 - Lane utilization for revenue optimal toll schedule
Revenue Optimal
HOT Lane usage (Volume/Capacity)
2015
Segment
2030
AM
PM
OP
AM
PM
OP
Eads-Seminary
A
79%
76%
30%
90%
85%
34%
Seminary-FrSp Pwy
B
60%
77%
29%
79%
93%
34%
FsSp Pwy-Gord
C
57%
61%
30%
79%
80%
35%
Gord-Garris
D
44%
48%
27%
62%
68%
32%
Garris-MtView
E
39%
38%
27%
57%
60%
35%
MtView-Massap
F
32%
17%
16%
49%
32%
21%
Proposed Toll Schedule
Another important issue surrounds the general acceptability of the proposed toll schedule in
comparison with other similar facilities either in planning or in operation.
For instance, SR 91 in California currently levies charges between $0.125 and $1.00 per mile,
varying by time-of-day and day-of-the-week. Information from the ‘Capital Beltway HOT
Lanes Investment Grade Traffic and Revenue Study’ (Feb 2007) identifies likely peak toll
rates in 2015 of between $1.15 and $1.54 per mile, and off peak tolls of approximately $0.15
per mile. These rates are consistent with the peak revenue optimal toll rates identified for the
I-95/I-395. Off Peak rates at existing facilities appear to be significantly lower than the
revenue optimal rates.
A final issue is the how the toll rates will be escalated under the concession agreement and
how this compares to other facilities. A reasonable toll escalation policy should keep pace
with inflation and also incorporate an element to capture an increased willingness to pay. For
example, the Indiana Toll Road has an annual escalation rate of the greater of CPI or
Nominal GDP/capita (which is approximately 2% higher than CPI). The Capital Beltway report
suggests an escalation policy of 4% per annum (in nominal terms).
For the I-95/I-395 T&R study, Halcrow has assumed that willingness to pay will increase at
0.75xreal GDP/capita, or approximately 1% above CPI.
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I-95/I-395 HOT Lane
T&R Forecasts
Table 7.7 presents a possible toll schedule. Figure 7.9 shows the proposed toll schedule
(Toll Schedule v1) alongside the revenue optimal toll rates. The proposed toll schedule is
based on the following criteria:
•
•
•
•
Toll rates slightly below revenue optimal during the peak periods;
Ability to use a uniform escalation rate over all segments without exceeding
revenue optimal in future (for instance, revenue optimal toll rates during the AM
peak for segment ‘B’ are similar in 2015 and 2030, thus requiring to start with a
lower rate in 2015); and
If toll revenue curves are flat (particularly relevant in off peak periods), select a
lower toll rate.
Toll rates are presented in 2015 and 2030 under both a CPI+1% and CPI+2%
escalation scenario.
This toll schedule has been used as the basis for the sensitivity testing and risk analysis
detailed in Chapter 8. Appendix E contains detailed results of a test using the toll schedule in
Table 7.7, assuming an escalation rate of CPI+2% from 2015 to 2030. A comparison of the
revenues in 2015 and 2030 are presented in Table 7.8. Annual revenue estimates for Toll
Schedule v1 are slightly lower than the optimal schedule in 2015 ($103.3M vs. $105.7M) and
approximately 7% lower in 2030 ($195.8M vs. $210.5M).
Table 7.7 - Possible Toll Schedule (Toll Schedule v1)
Possible Toll Schedule
Toll Regime (2008 $)
2015
Segment
Eads-Seminary
A
2030 (1% esc.)
AM
PM
OP
AM
PM
OP
$1.25
$0.75
$0.20
$1.45
$0.87
$0.23
Seminary-FrSp Pwy
B
$0.75
$0.75
$0.20
$0.87
$0.87
$0.23
FsSp Pwy-Gord
C
$0.40
$0.50
$0.20
$0.46
$0.58
$0.23
Gord-Garris
D
$0.30
$0.50
$0.20
$0.35
$0.58
$0.23
Garris-MtView
E
$0.20
$0.20
$0.20
$0.23
$0.23
$0.23
MtView-Massap
F
$0.20
$0.20
$0.20
$0.23
$0.23
$0.23
Cost to travel entire length of HOT lane
$22.66
$25.31
$11.33
$26.30
$29.38
2030 (2% esc.)
$13.16
Segment
AM
PM
OP
Eads-Seminary
A
$1.68
$1.01
$0.27
Seminary-FrSp Pwy
B
$1.01
$1.01
$0.27
FsSp Pwy-Gord
C
$0.54
$0.67
$0.27
Gord-Garris
D
$0.40
$0.67
$0.27
Garris-MtView
E
$0.27
$0.27
$0.27
MtView-Massap
F
$0.27
$0.27
$0.27
Cost to travel entire length of HOT lane
$30.49
$34.06
$15.25
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I-95/I-395 HOT Lane
T&R Forecasts
Table 7.8 – Annual Revenue for Revenue Optimal and Proposed Toll Schedule v1
Toll Rates
Toll
segments
Revenue Optimal
Toll Schedule v1
2015 (2008$)
2030 (2008$)
Annual Rev
($M)
Toll Range
(per mile)
Annual Rev
($M)
Toll Range
(per mile)
6
105.7
$0.18-$1.28
210.5
$0.22-$1.62
6
103.3
$0.20-$1.25
195.8
$0.27-$1.68
Figure 7.9a - 2015 & 2030 AM Peak Toll Rates (Toll Schedule v1 & revenue optimal)
2015 & 2030 Toll Rates - AM Peak
$2.00
Toll v1: 2015
Toll v1: 2030
Rev Opt: 2015
Rev Opt: 2030
$1.80
$1.60
Toll Rate (2008 $/mile)
$1.40
$1.20
$1.00
$0.80
$0.60
$0.40
$0.20
A
B
C
D
Toll Segment (not to scale)
71
E
F
I-95/I-395 HOT Lane
T&R Forecasts
Figure 7.9b - 2015 & 2030 PM Peak Toll Rates (Toll Schedule v1 & revenue optimal)
2015 & 2030 Toll Rates - PM Peak
$2.00
Toll v1: 2015
Toll v1: 2030
Rev Opt: 2015
Rev Opt: 2030
$1.80
$1.60
Toll Rate (2008 $/mile)
$1.40
$1.20
$1.00
$0.80
$0.60
$0.40
$0.20
A
B
C
D
E
F
Toll Segment (not to scale)
Figure 7.9c - 2015 & 2030 Off Peak Toll Rates (Toll Schedule v1 & revenue optimal)
2015 & 2030 Toll Rates - Off Peak
$2.00
Toll v1: 2015
Toll v1: 2030
Rev Opt: 2015
Rev Opt: 2030
$1.80
$1.60
Toll Rate (2008 $/mile)
$1.40
$1.20
$1.00
$0.80
$0.60
$0.40
$0.20
A
B
C
D
Toll Segment (not to scale)
72
E
F
I-95/I-395 HOT Lane
Sensitivity & Risk Analysis
8
Sensitivity Testing and Risk Analysis
8.1
Introduction
This chapter provides an overview of the sensitivity tests and output that have been carried
out as part of I-95/I-395 project. The results of sensitivity testing provide an indication of the
potential variability in forecasting HOT lane usage and revenue, and are therefore the primary
inputs to the risk analysis process.
The remainder of this chapter discusses the sensitivity tests, including the rationale behind
the values used and the results obtained, and goes on to describe the risk analysis carried
out as well as its outcomes.
8.2
Sensitivity Tests
All sensitivity tests have used the potential toll schedule outlined in Chapter 7 as their HOT
lane charging basis (Toll Schedule v1 in Table 7.7, assuming a CPI+2% toll escalation rate),
with variations in the sensitivity test variables only. Six variables have been tested, resulting
in 13 sets of test results:
•
•
•
•
•
•
Background traffic growth;
Early years’ ramp-up;
Vehicle operating costs;
Value of time;
Sluggers, HOV3 and transit use; and
Annual expansion factors.
Overall Results of Sensitivity Tests
Table 8.1 summarizes the results of the sensitivity tests in terms of the impact on revenue in
2015 and 2030. The information provides an indication of the revenue sensitivity around the
Base Case revenue forecast, it does not provide information on the likelihood of these events
occurring. The formal risk analysis results provide a more thorough understanding of the
traffic risks and the associated range as well as the likelihood of occurrence.
The sensitivity tests that have the greatest impact on toll revenues are background growth,
vehicle operating costs and value of time. The changes to Slugs/HOV3+/Transit and the
annual expansion factor have a less pronounced impact. Figures 8.1 and 8.2 give an
overview of the relative impact of each of the sensitivity tests on the Base Case revenue in
2015 and 2030.
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I-95/I-395 HOT Lane
Sensitivity & Risk Analysis
While the sensitivity tests provide an indication of the revenue sensitivity around the base
case traffic forecast, it does not provide information on the likelihood of the events that have
been tested actually occurring. Simply combining the low or high cases does not consider the
interdependency between different variables and represents a highly unlikely outcome. A
formal risk analysis, as described below, provides a more thorough understanding of the risks
as well as the likelihood of occurrence.
Each of the variables and accompanying sensitivity testing is discussed further below.
Table 8.1 - Summary Sensitivity Results
Sensitivity Test
Year
Total Revenue
(2008 $)
% change against
base case
Toll Schedule v1 (base case)
2015
$103.3
-
2030
$195.8
-
Low Background Growth
2015
$91.0
-12%
(-2yrs 2015) (-5yrs 2030)
2030
$165.0
-16%
High Background Growth
2015
$115.6
12%
(+2yrs 2015) (+5yrs 2030)
2030
$217.0
11%
Change VOC
2015
$92.5
-10%
(+13%) Fuel (+20%)
2030
$173.6
-11%
Change VOC
2015
$118.6
15%
(-13%) Fuel (-20%)
2030
$217.5
11%
Test 4a
Change VOT
2015
$86.8
-16%
(-20%)
2030
$171.5
-12%
Test 4b
Change VOT
2015
$115.2
12%
(+20%)
2030
$210.2
7%
HOV3+/Transit (SOV +2% AM,
2015
$107.0
4%
+1% PM, 0% OP - 2015 & 2030)
2030
$202.0
3%
HOV3+/Transit (SOV -2% AM,
2015
$99.2
-4%
-1% PM, 0% OP - 2015 & 2030)
2030
$189.2
-3%
Annual Expansion Factor
2015
$99.9
-3%
Low (290)
2030
$189.3
-3%
Annual Expansion Factor
2015
$108.5
5%
Medium (315)
2030
$205.6
5%
Annual Expansion Factor
2015
$111.9
8%
High (325)
2030
$212.1
8%
Test 1a
Test 1b
Test 3a
Test 3b
Test 5a
Test 5b
Test 6a
Test 6b
Test 6c
Slugs(-5% 2015, -7% 2030)
Slugs(+5% 2015, +7% 2030)
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I-95/I-395 HOT Lane
Sensitivity & Risk Analysis
Figure 8.1 - Summary impact of sensitivity tests on Base Case revenue in 2015
Sensitivity Tests - 2015
% Change in Annual Revenue (2008 $
20%
15%
10%
5%
0%
Background Grow th
VOC
VOT
Slugs/HOV3+/Transit
-5%
Annual Expansion
Factor
-10%
-15%
-20%
Figure 8.2 - Summary impact of sensitivity tests on Base Case revenue in 2030
Sensitivity Test - 2030
% Change in Annual Revenue (2008 $
15%
10%
5%
0%
Background Grow th
VOC
VOT
-5%
Slugs/HOV3+/Transit
Annual Expansion
Factor
-10%
-15%
-20%
Background Traffic Growth
In the traffic model, population and employment data is used to predict future traffic levels. A
preliminary five year running average annual growth for population and employment between
1995 and 2005 and the average annual growth for the base forecast were compared. Based
on the preliminary analysis, a low case growth scenario (population and employment at
minimum average historic growth) to 2015 would result in approximately a 2 year lag (e.g.,
75
I-95/I-395 HOT Lane
Sensitivity & Risk Analysis
2013 levels in 2015), while the high case scenario (at maximum growth levels) would result in
a 2 year advance (2017 levels by 2015). Similar analysis to 2030 suggests background
growth could vary at the extremes by up to ±5 years. Sensitivity testing has therefore
considered low and high scenarios where background growth is -2 years in 2015 and -5 years
in 2030 for low growth, and high growth with +2 years in 2015 and +5 years in 2030.
Tests
•
•
Test 1a – Low Background Growth (-2yrs 2015) (-5yrs 2030)
Test 1b – High Background Growth (+2yrs 2015) (+5yrs 2030)
Results
As would be expected, revenue is greater with the high background growth assumption than
the base, and lower with low growth case. Revenue drops -12% in 2015 and -16% in 2030 for
the low case (Test 1a), rising by 12% and 11% respectively for high (Test 1b).
Revenue impacts are higher in 2030 compared to 2015 for the low growth case, as the
change assumed is a greater percentage reduction in traffic growth in the later years for this
test. This amount of change is not replicated in the other direction for the high background
growth, where the impacts in both 2015 and 2030 are similar, as a result of greater incidence
of capacity constraint in the HOT lanes in the later time horizon.
Table 8.1 summarizes the results of the sensitivity tests in terms of the impact on revenue in
2015 and 2030. Appendix F includes revenue streams for sensitivity tests.
Ramp Up
Ramp-up is the period immediately following the opening of a project when travelers adjust
their behavior to take advantage of the new facility. As the HOT lanes represent a change to
an existing facility, rather than necessarily an entirely new one, the ramp up effect is likely to
be smaller. However, the introduction of a toll option to a previously wholly toll-free facility
may lead to some initial resistance to pay. This sensitivity test examines lower and higher
ramp up factors, derived from information from similar facilities (such as SR91 in California).
Table 8.2 shows the ramp-up factors used.
Table 8.2 - Ramp up Factors
Year
1
2
3
4
5
central
0.65
0.80
1.00
1.00
1.00
Ramp-up Factors
low
0.60
0.70
0.80
0.90
1.00
76
high
0.90
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
I-95/I-395 HOT Lane
Sensitivity & Risk Analysis
Tests
•
•
Test 2a – Low Ramp Up
Test 2b – High Ramp Up
Results
The ramp-up factors have been applied separately to the northern and southern sections of
the HOT lanes (as discussed in Chapter 4). Table 8.3 show how the ramp-up factors are
applied to the northern and southern sections, for both high and low scenarios. Resulting full
revenue streams for the ramp-up sensitivity tests are presented in Appendix F.
Table 8.3 - Ramp up Factors
HIGH case – TOTAL
Year
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
Unramped
Revenue
LOW case – TOTAL
Ramp up
2008 $M
71.6
76.8
81.9
103.3
109.5
115.6
121.8
128.0
134.1
Year
Discounted
& Ramped
Revenue
2008 $M
45.7
49.9
48.8
56.3
54.9
53.2
51.5
49.6
47.7
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
HIGH case – Northern section only
Year
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
Unramped
Revenue
2008 $M
71.6
76.8
81.9
89.5
94.8
100.1
105.4
110.7
116.0
Ramp up
90%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
Unramped
Revenue
2008 $M
13.8
14.6
15.5
16.4
17.3
18.2
Ramp up
97%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
2008 $M
71.6
76.8
81.9
103.3
109.5
115.6
121.8
128.0
134.1
Ramp up
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
Discounted
& Ramped
Revenue
2008 $M
30.4
34.9
39.1
50.6
54.2
52.8
51.2
49.6
47.7
LOW case – Northern section only
Year
Discounted
& Ramped
Revenue
2008 $M
45.7
49.9
48.8
49.0
47.6
46.1
44.5
42.9
41.2
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
HIGH case – Southern section only
Year
Unramped
Revenue
Unramped
Revenue
2008 $M
71.6
76.8
81.9
89.5
94.8
100.1
105.4
110.7
116.0
Ramp up
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
Discounted
& Ramped
Revenue
2008 $M
30.4
34.9
39.1
44.1
47.6
46.1
44.5
42.9
41.2
LOW case – Southern section only
Year
Discounted
& Ramped
Revenue
2008 $M
7.3
7.4
7.2
6.9
6.7
6.5
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
77
Unramped
Revenue
2008 $M
13.8
14.6
15.5
16.4
17.3
18.2
Ramp up
86%
90%
93%
97%
100%
100%
Discounted
& Ramped
Revenue
2008 $M
6.5
6.6
6.7
6.7
6.7
6.5
I-95/I-395 HOT Lane
Sensitivity & Risk Analysis
However, note that ramp-up factors are not included as a variable in the risk analysis, as their
effects are reflected over several years, whereas the effects of other variables can be wholly
tested for individual modeled years. The various ramp-up scenarios have been included in
the derivation of the risk assessment revenue streams. Central ramp-up is applied to the
base forecasts, while high ramp-up can be applied to a more risky revenue stream, and low
to a less risky stream.
Vehicle Operating Cost (VOC)
The future of fuel prices is uncertain, particularly given the wide fluctuations in the last 12months. Despite the recent reduction in oil prices however, there is a common perception that
fuel prices are set to rise in real terms as demand outstrips supply, combined with constraints
in oil refinery and distribution infrastructure, though this will be offset to some extent by
improved fuel efficiency and new technology.
Vehicle operating cost used in the base case forecast is assumed at $0.167/mile (2005$).
The calculation of travel costs (excluding time factors) within the traffic model is based on an
estimate of 2005 vehicle operating costs, which are assumed to remain constant in real terms
for the central forecasts. These costs apply to travel on all roads (tolled and un-tolled) and the
short term route choice impacts of any changes in these costs are unlikely to have any
significant impact on traffic flows on individual roads. In the longer term, significant changes
in vehicle operating costs could lead to generally shorter or longer trips being undertaken,
with consequential reductions or increases in traffic on individual highway links.
Both an upside and downside VOC assumption appears prudent in the current market. For
the sensitivity tests, we have assumed a 20% increase in fuel prices as high oil-price low
revenue case, with a corresponding low fuel price high revenue case reduction in fuel prices
of 20%. Note that a 20% change in fuel prices results in a corresponding approximately 13%
change in total vehicle operating costs, as VOC also includes allowance for costs such as
maintenance and tires.
As well as adjusting the VOC assumptions used in the model assignment process, we have
also modeled the impact that operating costs can have on trip lengths and trip totals. This has
followed an elasticity model approach. Details behind the rationale and methodology applied
in this approach can be found in Appendix G.
Tests
•
•
Test 3a – Change VOC (+13%) Fuel (+20%)
Test 3b – Change VOC (-13%) Fuel (-20%)
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I-95/I-395 HOT Lane
Sensitivity & Risk Analysis
Results
Increasing fuel prices in the low revenue case resulted in similar reductions in total revenue in
both 2015 and 2030 (revenue falling -10% and -11% respectively). When fuel prices are
reduced in the high revenue case there is a bigger impact in 2015 than 2030 (+15% in 2015
versus +11% in 2030). This is related to higher congestion in the GP lanes making this test
less sensitive in 2030.
Table 8.1 summarizes the results of the sensitivity tests in terms of the impact on revenue in
2015 and 2030. Appendix F includes revenue streams for sensitivity tests.
Value of Time (VOT)
The value of time used in the base case forecast is assumed at $15.10/hour (2005$) which is
derived from the TPB model and Halcrow's database. The VOT estimates for this study fall
within our benchmark range for North America (US$11.50 to 18.05), but lie at the middle of
this range. These values are assumed to increase in the future at GDP/capita but may
increase at different rates in practice. It is acknowledged that a single value is potentially
unrepresentative over an entire study area, so a range of values of time have been included
in the sensitivity testing.
Values of time used or reported in studies we have undertaken or audited in North America
vary from location to location (arguably reflecting different users’ perceptions by region), but
are typically within ±20% of an overall central value. We have therefore used this range to
indicate the limits VOT for this study. As such, a VOT of $18.10 was used for the high case
and $12.10 for the low case.
Tests
•
•
Test 4a – Change VOT (-20%)
Test 4b – Change VOT (+20%)
Results
In the low case there was a larger impact on revenue in 2015 than 2030 (-16% versus -12%).
A similar pattern is observed for the high case (in this instance +12% in 2015 and +7% in
2030). This is due to higher congestion in the GP lanes in 2030, as well as an increase in
driver’s willingness to pay tolls.
Table 8.1 summarizes the results of the sensitivity tests in terms of the impact on revenue in
2015 and 2030. Appendix F includes revenue streams for sensitivity tests.
79
I-95/I-395 HOT Lane
Sensitivity & Risk Analysis
Slugs, HOV3+ and Transit
In the base case, we have assumed that ‘slugging’ activity will continue to grow at the same
rate as formal HOV3+ carpooling. According to 2006 AM slugging count data, the slugging
activity has doubled since 1999 (note that slugging counts in 1999 are actually inferred
estimates). This suggests that slugging activity could be growing faster than formal HOV3+,
but it is difficult to determine if there will be more or less slugging activity with the introduction
of HOT lanes, based on the existing information available on the behavior of slugs and
HOV3+. There are also plans for additional transit services in the corridor, which will have
some impact on car traffic in the corridor. As such, it is important to test a range of slug,
HOV3+ and transit assumptions to understand the potential impact on HOT lane revenues.
Low and high sensitivity assumptions have been determined for this combined market.
Slugging is not a government sponsored commuter program, but one created by local citizens
to solve their own commuter problems. There are therefore no official plans setting out the
potential growth (or reduction) in slugging activity. According to www.slug-lines.com, the
following three requirements are all that is necessary in order to start a slug line:
•
•
•
A parking area (typically a commuter parking lot);
The availability of an alternative transit system (bus, rail or metro); and
Flyers and notices to spread the word about the new slug line.
For the sensitivity tests, appropriate change rates have been determined by investigating the
relationship between the existing number of slugs (using the 2006 slugger count data) and
existing parking lots. This relationship was applied in 2015 and 2030, taking into account
proposed parking lot changes along the corridor. Estimates of future parking spaces have
been determined using the I-95/I-395 Transit/TDM Study, which proposed an additional 9,700
parking spaces by 2030.
HOV3+ trip matrices have therefore been modified to take account of changes in slugging
activity along the I-95/I-395 corridor. The level of slugging is assumed to grow/reduce at ±5%
of the formal HOV3+ growth rate in 2015, while in 2030 a change of ±7% is assumed. Transit
was changed by assuming that the transit trips shifted to or from the single occupancy vehicle
trips. SOV trips were then adjusted by ±2% for AM and ±1% for PM in the high and low
revenue tests respectively.
Tests
•
•
Test 5a – Slugs (-5% 2015, -7% 2030), HOV3+/Transit (SOV +2% AM, +1% PM,
0% OP – 2015 & 2030)
Test 5b – Slugs (+5% 2015, +7% 2030), HOV3+/Transit (SOV -2% AM, -1% PM,
0% OP – 2015 & 2030)
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Sensitivity & Risk Analysis
Results
The amount of effect on revenue that this sensitivity test identified was generally lower than
the other tests, though the effect of this test was marginally higher in 2015 than 2030.
Changes in revenue of +4% were modeled in 2015 and +3% in 2030 for the high case (less
slugs and transit and more SOVs) and -4% and -3% respectively for the low case (more slugs
and transit users).
Table 8.1 summarizes the results of the sensitivity tests in terms of the impact on revenue in
2015 and 2030. Appendix F includes revenue streams for sensitivity tests.
Annual Expansion Factor
The precise annual expansion factor is the relationship between the average day modeled,
and is a function of the level of congestion, use of the HOT lanes at weekends, VOT and
vehicle occupancy by different trip purposes. Limited information is available on weekend use
of HOT lanes, though it is an important factor.
Examining traffic count data along the I-95/I-395 corridor, indicates that annualization factors
are generally high, with an average around 350, indicating that traffic flows on weekends are
as high as those on weekdays. However, it is unlikely that toll-paying HOT lane use will be as
evenly distributed. Hence, a factor of 300 was used in our base case, which is similar to that
observed for the SR91 in California, where the average annualization factor for a weekday
has been 297 over the last 5 years.
Examining more recent traffic count data on the SR91 enabled development of possible
range of annualization factors to test.
•
•
•
A low value of 290 was selected to test a level below the base case value, as a
reasonable step down.
An additional ‘medium’ value of 315 was also considered, as this is representative
of the more recent observed relationship between the average amount of HOT lane
paying traffic on SR91 for mid-week traffic (Tuesdays to Thursdays).
An upper bound factor of 325 was chosen, as this represents an average of the
annualization factors for toll-paying weekday (318) and a factored weekday (337)
on the SR91.
Note that the factored weekday factor of 337 was determined by factoring the total paid traffic
on the SR91 by the average contribution a typical day (including weekend days) makes to the
overall total of both paid and unpaid traffic. This factoring is an attempt to make all days
equivalent, to generate this upper bound expansion factor.
81
I-95/I-395 HOT Lane
Sensitivity & Risk Analysis
Tests
•
•
•
Test 6a – Annual Expansion Factor – Low
Test 6b – Annual Expansion Factor – Medium
Test 6c – Annual Expansion Factor – High
Results
The impact of the annualization factors on the revenue is not as significant as some of the
other sensitivity tests, with -3% for the low case, +5% for medium and +8% for the high case.
As the same factors are used in both 2015 and 2030, the change impact is the same on
revenues in 2015 as 2030.
Table 8.1 summarizes the results of the sensitivity tests in terms of the impact on revenue in
2015 and 2030. Appendix F includes revenue streams for sensitivity tests.
8.3
Risk Analysis
All forecasts are inherently subject to degree of uncertainty, related to which a level of risk
can be associated with the likelihood that a forecast will be met. The risks associated with
traffic forecasts derived from a traffic model (and their associated toll revenue estimates) can
be ascribed to three main sources of risk:
•
•
•
Assumptions used in the traffic models, or factors applied to model generated traffic
or revenue estimates;
Processes or parameters within the traffic models; and
Database used to calibrate and validate the models.
It is perhaps arguable whether it is possible to rigorously quantify risk for traffic forecasts. The
range of assumptions can be extensive, and distribution of risk around little understood.
However, many assumptions have little material effect on forecasts, and the risk around key
issues is often reasonably understood. There is thus clearly a strong imperative to
understand the likely relative levels of risk associated with such variables and the risk
analysis process aims to do this. A risk analysis has been carried out to identify the range of
probabilities surrounding the base traffic and revenue forecasts produced by Halcrow.
Methodology
The risk analysis process involves the following steps:
•
•
•
•
Identify key input variables that affect the baseline forecasts;
Define probability distributions around each key variable;
Define sensitivity functions for each variable; and
Run the risk model (Monte Carlo simulation).
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Sensitivity & Risk Analysis
Further details of the overall risk analysis methodology can be found in Appendix H.
The first task is to identify which variables need to be included in the risk analysis, and to
identify the effects of changes in these variables on revenues. There are a number of sources
of risk in traffic forecasts. Each of the sensitivities tested in the study represent key potential
sources of risk as to why out-turn revenue could be higher or lower than the ‘central’ forecast,
and is the essential reason for their inclusion in the sensitivity testing.
Secondly, a probability distribution needs to be defined for each of the selected variables. For
each variable, maximum and minimum input values of the variable must be determined, and
the shape of a probability curve designated. For variables that are likely to be more difficult to
predict accurately a uniform distribution profile is selected. This assumes that any value
within the range is more-or-less equally probable. When considering variables that are more
centrally-focused, and there is some confidence that central values are likely to be the most
appropriate and the variable is less likely to reach its extremes, a normal distribution is
selected.
Table 8.4 provides a summary of the inputs to the risk analysis, and indicates how the key
sensitivity tests were taken forward into the risk model. The risk analysis was undertaken
separately for 2015 and 2030. Note that the remaining risk factors were assumed to be part
of a general category of ‘other risk factors’ that is assumed to cover all other risks. This
includes elements such as database error, model error, factors that we have not thought of
and outcomes beyond the ranges we have considered.
Table 8.4 - Summary of inputs to risk analysis
Sensitivity Test
Range
(index on 2015/2030 Base Case forecasts)
2015
Background Growth
VOC
VOT
Slugs/HOV3+/Transit Reduction
Annual Expansion
Other risk factors
2030
lower
upper
lower
upper
-12%
-10%
-16%
-4%
-3%
-20%
+12%
+15%
+12%
+ 4%
+8%
+20%
-16%
-11%
-12%
-3%
-3%
-20%
+11%
+11%
+7%
+3%
+8%
+20%
Distribution
profile
Normal
Uniform
Normal
Normal
Normal
Normal
Once the probability distributions are defined and the impact of each variable on the revenues
determined, the risk model is used to determine an overall probability distribution for the
forecast revenues in each of the two forecast years. From these values, an 80% confidence
interval revenue stream risk envelope has been determined, bounded by revenue streams
that have a 90% and 10% probability of being met or exceeded.
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I-95/I-395 HOT Lane
Sensitivity & Risk Analysis
Note that ramp-up was not included as a risk variable, but has been applied directly to the
revenue streams. Central ramp-up is applied to the basic central forecasts, while high rampup is applied to the 10% confidence revenue stream, and low ramp-up to the 90% confidence
revenue stream
Results
The results of the risk analysis are shown in Table 8.5. This shows the annual revenue as
indices of the equivalent year base case (expressed as 100). Figure 8.3 shows the revenue
risk distribution curves for total annual revenue in each of the 2015 and 2030 model years.
The key figures in Table 8.5 are the results for revenues with a 10% and 90% probability of
being equaled or exceeded. These indicate that an 80% confidence interval spread of
revenue is -14% to +20% of the base case forecast in 2015 and -16% to +15% in 2030.
Table 8.5 - Risk analysis results
Indices
2015
2030
Mean result
102.2
99.0
Median result
101.6
98.4
90% confidence
85.8
83.9
10% confidence
119.6
114.9
Note that results are
indexed from the base
case forecast for each
model year (base = 100)
Figure 8.3 - Revenue distribution curves for 2015 and 2030
Figure 8.4 shows the 80% confidence interval risk envelope revenue streams from 2012 to
2071 (bounded by the 90% probability to 10%). Figure 8.5 is an alternative way of presenting
the results and shows the probability of reaching the different revenues in each future year.
Appendix I contains detailed results for the 90% and 10% confidence levels.
The distributions as shown in Figure 8.3 indicate that the base case itself likely to represent a
result that is close to the average (both mean and median). In 2015 the average revenue
probability result is +2% over the base case, indicating that the risk analysis judges the 2015
84
I-95/I-395 HOT Lane
Sensitivity & Risk Analysis
modeled revenue to be slightly low. In 2030 the difference falls slightly to -1%, indicating that
the 2030 modeled revenue is slightly above the average for the risk envelope. That the risk
envelope narrows in 2030 compared to 2015, with the potential for achieving the base case
revenue also reduced slightly, is related to the lower impact of VOC and VOT caused by
increased willingness to pay and more traffic congestion in the later years.
Figure 8.4 - Revenue stream risk envelope (2012-2071)
2012-2071 Annual Revenue (80% confidence interval)
350
10% confidence
90% confidence
mean
model
Annual Revenue (2008$ millions)
300
250
200
150
100
50
0
2012
2015
2018
2021
2024
2027
2030
2033
2036
2039
2042
Year
85
2045
2048
2051
2054
2057
2060
2063
2066
2069
2072
I-95/I-395 HOT Lane
Sensitivity & Risk Analysis
Figure 8.5 - Total revenue probability for model years (2015 & 2030)
2015 & 2030 Annual Revenues (confidence range)
250
2015
2030
Annual Revenue (2008$ millions)
200
150
100
50
0
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
45%
50%
55%
Confidence
86
60%
65%
70%
75%
80%
85%
90%
95%
I-95/I-395 HOT Lane
Summary
9
Summary
9.1
‘Throughput’ Tests
To assess the effect of a key feature of the HOT lanes, namely that traffic speeds and journey
times in the HOT lanes should not be compromised by traffic congestion, traffic speeds in the
HOT lanes are modeled using the ‘full’ modeling procedure as shown in Figure 5.1.
This process is known as ‘throughput’ analysis in this report for a specific target minimum
traffic speed. For these tests, toll rates can vary (i.e. rise) by as much as the model requires,
in order to maintain the desired target minimum traffic speed. Three ‘throughput’ tests were
carried out:
•
•
•
55 mph throughput` – the initial ‘base forecast’, carried out with a target minimum
speed of 55 mph;
45 mph throughput – target minimum speed of 45 mph; and
65 mph throughput – target minimum speed of 65 mph.
Annual revenue estimates range from $77.1M to $102.7M in 2015, increasing to $130.0M to
$191.6M in 2030 for these tests. Results of the throughput tests are discussed in Chapter 7.
Detailed results can then be found in Appendix E.
9.2
Revenue Optimization Tests
The ‘throughput’ tests form the basis of the methodology to identify ‘revenue optimal’ toll
rates. Subsequently therefore to the throughput tests, a series of over 100 model runs were
undertaken to identify the toll rates that give the optimal revenue for each segment of the
HOT lanes.
These tests sought to ‘push’ the toll rates above and below those identified in the ‘throughput’
tests to determine the points at which toll revenues on individual segments were highest. The
model runs did not employ the ‘full’ modeling procedure, in that the toll rates were fixed for
each run of the model.
Culmination of the revenue optimization process is a potential toll schedule (Toll Schedule
v1), based on the revenue optimal rates, but adjusted for compatibility with wider aims for the
tolling regime.
Annual revenue estimates for the revenue optimal test are estimated at $105.7M in 2015,
increasing to $210.5M in 2030. For Toll Schedule v1, revenues in 2015 are $103.3M and
$195.8M in 2030. Details of the revenue optimization process and the results, and derivation
87
I-95/I-395 HOT Lane
Summary
of the recommended toll schedule can be found in Chapter 7. Results of tests of the revenue
optimal toll rates and recommended toll schedule can be found in Appendix E.
9.3
Sensitivity Tests
The results of sensitivity testing provide an indication of the potential variability in forecasting
HOT lane usage and revenue, and used to derive inputs to the risk analysis process.
Sensitivity test model runs also did not employ the ‘full’ modeling procedure. All the sensitivity
tests have used the same toll levels (the potential toll schedule suggested at the end of the
revenue optimization process).
All sensitivity tests have used the potential toll schedule outlined in Chapter 7 as their HOT
lane charging basis, with variations in the sensitivity test variables only. Six variables have
been tested, resulting in 13 sets of test results:
•
•
•
•
•
•
Background traffic growth;
Early years’ ramp-up;
Vehicle operating costs;
Value of time;
Sluggers, HOV3 and transit use; and
Annual expansion factors.
Discussion of the sensitivity tests can be found in Chapter 8, with detailed revenue stream
results in Appendix F.
9.4
Risk Analysis
The risk analysis carried out identifies a probability based assessment of the likelihood of
achieving levels of revenue. A series of key variables was identified for inclusion in the risk
analysis. Results of the sensitivity tests were then used to define the variable ranges.
The key output from the risk analysis is an 80% confidence interval risk envelope for the
revenue stream (bounded by the revenue streams that have 10% and 90% probabilities of
being equaled or exceeded). The results suggest that the 80% confidence interval spread of
revenue is -14% to +20% of the base case forecast in 2015 and -16% to +15% in 2030. In
2015, the average revenue result is +2% above the base case, while in 2030 it is -1% below.
Full discussion of the risk analysis is in Chapter 8, with detailed revenue stream results for
the resulting risk envelope in Appendix I.
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I-95/I-395 HOT Lane
Appendix A
Appendix A – 2005 Base Year Model Validation Results
89
I-95/I-395 HOT Lane
Appendix A
I-95/I-395 Screenline Summary for AM
Sc10062
Truck
Dir
Sc10062
Auto
Sc10062
Total
From
To
Obs
Est
%Diff
GEH
Obs
Est
%Diff
GEH
Obs
Est
%Diff
GEH
Morris Rd
Massaponax Church Rd
N
431
563
23%
5.9
6,036
5,862
-3%
2.3
6,467
6,425
-1%
0.5
Massaponax Church Rd
Jefferson Davis Highway (Rt 1)
N
431
563
23%
5.9
6,036
5,862
-3%
2.3
6,467
6,425
-1%
0.5
Jefferson Davis Highway (Rt 1)
Germanna Highway (Rt 3)
N
580
637
9%
2.3
8,126
8,322
2%
2.2
8,706
8,959
3%
2.7
Germanna Highway (Rt 3)
Warrenton Road (Rt 17)
N
1,026
917
-12%
3.5
14,370
14,001
-3%
3.1
15,396
14,919
-3%
3.9
Warrenton Road (Rt 17)
Centreport Parkway (Rt 627)
N
881
995
12%
3.7
12,337
13,056
6%
6.4
13,218
14,051
6%
7.1
Centreport Parkway (Rt 627)
Courthouse Road (Rt 630)
N
946
982
4%
1.1
13,251
13,125
-1%
1.1
14,197
14,106
-1%
0.8
Courthouse Road (Rt 630)
Garrisonville Road (Rt 610)
N
1,008
995
-1%
0.4
14,124
13,385
-6%
6.3
15,132
14,380
-5%
6.2
Garrisonville Road (Rt 610)
Russell Road
N
1,137
1,036
-10%
3.1
15,932
15,592
-2%
2.7
17,069
16,628
-3%
3.4
Russell Road
Joplin Road (Rt 619)
N
999
1,005
1%
0.2
13,993
14,024
0%
0.3
14,992
15,030
0%
0.3
Joplin Road (Rt 619)
Dumfries Road (Rt 234)
N
879
1,069
18%
6.1
14,677
14,466
-1%
1.8
15,556
15,534
0%
0.2
Dumfries Road (Rt 234)
Dale Blvd (Rt 784)
N
880
1,000
12%
3.9
14,686
13,955
-5%
6.1
15,566
14,955
-4%
4.9
Dale Blvd (Rt 784)
Opitz Blvd
N
845
1,060
20%
7.0
15,035
16,185
7%
9.2
15,880
17,245
8%
10.6
Opitz Blvd
Prince William Pkwy(Rt 630/3000)
N
835
936
11%
3.4
16,188
14,160
-14%
16.5
17,023
15,096
-13%
15.2
Prince William Pkwy(Rt 630/3000) Gordon Blvd (Rt 123)
N
839
1,115
25%
8.8
18,057
16,877
-7%
8.9
18,896
17,992
-5%
6.7
Gordon Blvd (Rt 123)
Lorton Rd (Rt 642)
N
1,299
1,114
-17%
5.3
25,611
23,760
-8%
11.8
26,910
24,875
-8%
12.6
Lorton Rd (Rt 642)
Fairfax Cnty Pkwy (Rt 7100)
N
1,202
1,217
1%
0.4
24,671
23,929
-3%
4.8
25,873
25,146
-3%
4.6
Fairfax Cnty Pkwy (Rt 7100)
Franconia-Springfield Parkway
N
1,347
1,356
1%
0.3
24,604
24,415
-1%
1.2
25,951
25,771
-1%
1.1
Franconia-Springfield Parkway
Franconia Road (Rt 644)
N
1,222
1,305
6%
2.3
22,976
21,872
-5%
7.4
24,198
23,177
-4%
6.6
Franconia Road (Rt 644)
Capital Beltway (I-495)
N
1,659
1,663
0%
0.1
30,641
29,975
-2%
3.8
32,300
31,638
-2%
3.7
Capital Beltway (I-495)
Edsall Road (Rt 648)
N
130
381
66%
15.7
23,270
22,168
-5%
7.3
23,400
22,548
-4%
5.6
Edsall Road (Rt 648)
Duke St (Rt 236)
N
118
254
53%
10.0
21,872
21,044
-4%
5.7
21,990
21,298
-3%
4.7
Duke St (Rt 236)
Seminary Road
N
139
200
30%
4.7
25,452
22,861
-11%
16.7
25,591
23,061
-11%
16.2
Seminary Road
King St (Rt 7)
N
157
194
19%
2.8
27,850
26,509
-5%
8.1
28,007
26,702
-5%
7.9
King St (Rt 7)
S. Shirlington Road
N
160
212
25%
3.8
28,225
27,968
-1%
1.5
28,385
28,180
-1%
1.2
4.3
S. Shirlington Road
S. Glebe Road (Rt 120)
N
182
221
18%
2.7
31,332
30,529
-3%
4.6
31,514
30,751
-2%
S. Glebe Road (Rt 120)
S. Hayes Street
N
171
134
-27%
3.0
29,938
28,872
-4%
6.2
30,109
29,006
-4%
6.4
S. Hayes Street
S. Eads Street
N
138
136
-2%
0.2
23,103
22,372
-3%
4.8
23,241
22,508
-3%
4.8
S. Eads Street
Jefferson Davis Highway (Rt 1)
N
138
136
-2%
0.2
21,408
23,015
7%
10.8
21,546
23,150
7%
10.7
Jefferson Davis Highway (Rt 1)
Boundary Channel Drive
N
134
137
3%
0.3
25,453
26,127
3%
4.2
25,587
26,264
3%
4.2
Boundary Channel Drive
George Washington Mem. Pkwy
N
278
236
-18%
2.6
34,051
34,820
2%
4.1
34,329
35,056
2%
3.9
Morris Rd
Massaponax Church Rd
S
377
404
6%
1.3
5,288
5,443
3%
2.1
5,665
5,846
3%
2.4
Massaponax Church Rd
Jefferson Davis Highway (Rt 1)
S
377
404
6%
1.3
5,288
5,443
3%
2.1
5,665
5,846
3%
2.4
Jefferson Davis Highway (Rt 1)
Germanna Highway (Rt 3)
S
456
440
-4%
0.8
6,385
6,530
2%
1.8
6,841
6,970
2%
1.5
Germanna Highway (Rt 3)
Warrenton Road (Rt 17)
S
589
574
-3%
0.6
8,246
8,059
-2%
2.1
8,835
8,633
-2%
2.2
Warrenton Road (Rt 17)
Centreport Parkway (Rt 627)
S
514
462
-11%
2.4
7,201
7,842
8%
7.4
7,715
8,304
7%
6.6
Centreport Parkway (Rt 627)
Courthouse Road (Rt 630)
S
521
547
5%
1.1
7,292
7,391
1%
1.2
7,813
7,938
2%
1.4
Courthouse Road (Rt 630)
Garrisonville Road (Rt 610)
S
540
554
3%
0.6
7,563
7,449
-2%
1.3
8,103
8,003
-1%
1.1
Garrisonville Road (Rt 610)
Russell Road
S
545
583
7%
1.6
7,635
7,276
-5%
4.2
8,180
7,859
-4%
3.6
Russell Road
Joplin Road (Rt 619)
S
546
560
3%
0.6
7,645
7,484
-2%
1.9
8,191
8,044
-2%
1.6
Joplin Road (Rt 619)
Dumfries Road (Rt 234)
S
595
639
7%
1.7
8,342
8,842
6%
5.4
8,937
9,481
6%
5.7
Dumfries Road (Rt 234)
Dale Blvd (Rt 784)
S
556
559
0%
0.1
7,794
7,795
0%
0.0
8,350
8,354
0%
0.0
Dale Blvd (Rt 784)
Opitz Blvd
S
584
538
-8%
1.9
8,177
8,317
2%
1.5
8,761
8,855
1%
1.0
Opitz Blvd
Prince William Pkwy(Rt 630/3000)
S
584
538
-8%
1.9
8,177
8,317
2%
1.5
8,761
8,855
1%
1.0
Prince William Pkwy(Rt 630/3000) Gordon Blvd (Rt 123)
S
598
609
2%
0.5
8,379
8,160
-3%
2.4
8,977
8,769
-2%
2.2
Gordon Blvd (Rt 123)
Lorton Rd (Rt 642)
S
550
562
2%
0.5
7,706
8,323
7%
6.9
8,256
8,885
7%
6.8
Lorton Rd (Rt 642)
Fairfax Cnty Pkwy (Rt 7100)
S
600
643
7%
1.7
8,408
8,908
6%
5.4
9,008
9,551
6%
5.6
Fairfax Cnty Pkwy (Rt 7100)
Franconia-Springfield Parkway
S
839
799
-5%
1.4
11,752
11,761
0%
0.1
12,591
12,560
0%
0.3
Franconia-Springfield Parkway
Franconia Road (Rt 644)
S
839
799
-5%
1.4
11,752
11,761
0%
0.1
12,591
12,560
0%
0.3
Franconia Road (Rt 644)
Capital Beltway (I-495)
S
803
877
8%
2.5
11,249
12,502
10%
11.5
12,052
13,379
10%
11.8
Capital Beltway (I-495)
Edsall Road (Rt 648)
S
89
167
47%
6.9
10,911
10,813
-1%
0.9
11,000
10,980
0%
0.2
Edsall Road (Rt 648)
Duke St (Rt 236)
S
93
102
9%
0.9
11,396
11,305
-1%
0.9
11,489
11,408
-1%
0.8
Duke St (Rt 236)
Seminary Road
S
91
123
26%
3.1
11,150
11,579
4%
4.0
11,241
11,702
4%
4.3
Seminary Road
King St (Rt 7)
S
88
112
21%
2.3
10,816
11,352
5%
5.1
10,904
11,463
5%
5.3
King St (Rt 7)
S. Shirlington Road
S
95
95
-1%
0.1
11,659
11,790
1%
1.2
11,754
11,885
1%
1.2
S. Shirlington Road
S. Glebe Road (Rt 120)
S
102
162
37%
5.2
12,522
13,465
7%
8.3
12,624
13,626
7%
8.7
S. Glebe Road (Rt 120)
S. Hayes Street
S
97
109
11%
1.1
11,907
11,802
-1%
1.0
12,004
11,911
-1%
0.9
S. Hayes Street
S. Eads Street
S
63
53
-18%
1.3
7,658
8,676
12%
11.3
7,721
8,729
12%
11.1
S. Eads Street
Jefferson Davis Highway (Rt 1)
S
63
53
-18%
1.3
7,658
8,676
12%
11.3
7,721
8,729
12%
11.1
Jefferson Davis Highway (Rt 1)
Boundary Channel Drive
S
130
141
8%
0.9
15,921
14,313
-11%
13.1
16,051
14,454
-11%
12.9
Boundary Channel Drive
George Washington Mem. Pkwy
S
184
192
4%
0.5
22,540
23,449
4%
6.0
22,724
23,641
4%
6.0
90
I-95/I-395 HOT Lane
Appendix A
I-95/I-395 Screenline Summary for PM
Sc20135
Truck
Dir
Sc20135
Auto
Sc20135
Total
From
To
%Diff
GEH
Obs
Est
%Diff
GEH
Obs
Est
%Diff
GEH
Morris Rd
Massaponax Church Rd
N
620
649
4%
1.1
6,358
6,681
5%
4.0
6,978
7,330
5%
4.2
Massaponax Church Rd
Jefferson Davis Highway (Rt 1)
N
620
649
4%
1.1
6,358
6,681
5%
4.0
6,978
7,330
5%
4.2
Jefferson Davis Highway (Rt 1)
Germanna Highway (Rt 3)
N
719
686
-5%
1.2
7,367
7,159
-3%
2.4
8,086
7,845
-3%
2.7
Germanna Highway (Rt 3)
Warrenton Road (Rt 17)
N
872
806
-8%
2.3
8,937
9,087
2%
1.6
9,809
9,893
1%
0.8
Obs
Est
Warrenton Road (Rt 17)
Centreport Parkway (Rt 627)
N
649
723
10%
2.8
6,648
7,869
16%
14.3
7,297
8,592
15%
14.5
Centreport Parkway (Rt 627)
Courthouse Road (Rt 630)
N
667
708
6%
1.6
6,837
7,275
6%
5.2
7,504
7,983
6%
5.4
Courthouse Road (Rt 630)
Garrisonville Road (Rt 610)
N
718
721
0%
0.1
7,359
7,370
0%
0.1
8,077
8,091
0%
0.2
Garrisonville Road (Rt 610)
Russell Road
N
779
797
2%
0.6
7,984
8,708
8%
7.9
8,763
9,505
8%
7.8
Russell Road
Joplin Road (Rt 619)
N
823
777
-6%
1.6
8,433
8,115
-4%
3.5
9,256
8,892
-4%
3.8
Joplin Road (Rt 619)
Dumfries Road (Rt 234)
N
920
905
-2%
0.5
9,428
9,944
5%
5.2
10,348
10,849
5%
4.9
Dumfries Road (Rt 234)
Dale Blvd (Rt 784)
N
899
884
-2%
0.5
9,211
9,034
-2%
1.9
10,110
9,918
-2%
1.9
Dale Blvd (Rt 784)
Opitz Blvd
N
908
991
8%
2.7
9,303
11,224
17%
19.0
10,211
12,215
16%
18.9
Opitz Blvd
Prince William Pkwy(Rt 630/3000)
N
999
915
-9%
2.7
10,241
9,196
-11%
10.6
11,240
10,112
-11%
10.9
Prince William Pkwy(Rt 630/3000) Gordon Blvd (Rt 123)
N
982
1,011
3%
0.9
10,062
10,204
1%
1.4
11,044
11,215
2%
1.6
Gordon Blvd (Rt 123)
Lorton Rd (Rt 642)
N
1,051
1,004
-5%
1.5
10,772
11,366
5%
5.6
11,823
12,370
4%
5.0
Lorton Rd (Rt 642)
Fairfax Cnty Pkwy (Rt 7100)
N
985
998
1%
0.4
10,099
10,348
2%
2.5
11,084
11,346
2%
2.5
Fairfax Cnty Pkwy (Rt 7100)
Franconia-Springfield Parkway
N
1,038
1,014
-2%
0.7
10,636
10,518
-1%
1.1
11,674
11,532
-1%
1.3
Franconia-Springfield Parkway
Franconia Road (Rt 644)
N
870
973
11%
3.4
8,917
8,528
-5%
4.2
9,787
9,501
-3%
2.9
Franconia Road (Rt 644)
Capital Beltway (I-495)
N
1,283
1,212
-6%
2.0
13,148
14,350
8%
10.2
14,431
15,563
7%
9.2
Capital Beltway (I-495)
Edsall Road (Rt 648)
N
93
166
44%
6.5
12,107
12,590
4%
4.3
12,200
12,756
4%
5.0
Edsall Road (Rt 648)
Duke St (Rt 236)
N
117
105
-11%
1.1
15,266
14,800
-3%
3.8
15,383
14,905
-3%
3.9
Duke St (Rt 236)
Seminary Road
N
122
118
-4%
0.4
15,972
15,781
-1%
1.5
16,094
15,899
-1%
1.5
Seminary Road
King St (Rt 7)
N
126
122
-3%
0.4
16,523
16,588
0%
0.5
16,649
16,711
0%
0.5
King St (Rt 7)
S. Shirlington Road
N
114
126
9%
1.0
14,917
15,972
7%
8.5
15,031
16,097
7%
8.5
S. Shirlington Road
S. Glebe Road (Rt 120)
N
123
165
25%
3.5
16,091
16,509
3%
3.3
16,214
16,674
3%
3.6
S. Glebe Road (Rt 120)
S. Hayes Street
N
108
146
26%
3.4
14,154
13,822
-2%
2.8
14,262
13,968
-2%
2.5
S. Hayes Street
S. Eads Street
N
75
374
80%
19.9
9,825
13,916
29%
37.5
9,900
14,289
31%
39.9
S. Eads Street
Jefferson Davis Highway (Rt 1)
N
75
374
80%
19.9
9,825
13,916
29%
37.5
9,900
14,289
31%
39.9
Jefferson Davis Highway (Rt 1)
Boundary Channel Drive
N
86
329
74%
16.9
11,188
9,688
-15%
14.7
11,274
10,017
-13%
12.2
Boundary Channel Drive
George Washington Mem. Pkwy
N
188
648
71%
22.5
24,542
25,614
4%
6.8
24,730
26,261
6%
9.6
Morris Rd
Massaponax Church Rd
S
775
795
3%
0.7
7,940
8,100
2%
1.8
8,715
8,896
2%
1.9
Massaponax Church Rd
Jefferson Davis Highway (Rt 1)
S
775
795
3%
0.7
7,940
8,100
2%
1.8
8,715
8,896
2%
1.9
Jefferson Davis Highway (Rt 1)
Germanna Highway (Rt 3)
S
945
910
-4%
1.2
9,690
9,650
0%
0.4
10,635
10,560
-1%
0.7
Germanna Highway (Rt 3)
Warrenton Road (Rt 17)
S
1,294
1,176
-10%
3.4
13,257
13,415
1%
1.4
14,551
14,591
0%
0.3
Warrenton Road (Rt 17)
Centreport Parkway (Rt 627)
S
1,105
1,113
1%
0.2
11,324
12,256
8%
8.6
12,429
13,369
7%
8.3
Centreport Parkway (Rt 627)
Courthouse Road (Rt 630)
S
1,202
1,227
2%
0.7
12,318
12,210
-1%
1.0
13,520
13,438
-1%
0.7
Courthouse Road (Rt 630)
Garrisonville Road (Rt 610)
S
1,288
1,255
-3%
0.9
13,200
13,344
1%
1.2
14,488
14,599
1%
0.9
Garrisonville Road (Rt 610)
Russell Road
S
1,458
1,337
-9%
3.2
14,941
16,112
7%
9.4
16,399
17,448
6%
8.1
Russell Road
Joplin Road (Rt 619)
S
1,456
1,319
-10%
3.7
14,922
14,276
-5%
5.3
16,378
15,595
-5%
6.2
Joplin Road (Rt 619)
Dumfries Road (Rt 234)
S
1,130
1,341
16%
6.0
15,193
15,934
5%
5.9
16,323
17,275
6%
7.3
Dumfries Road (Rt 234)
Dale Blvd (Rt 784)
S
1,344
1,348
0%
0.1
17,384
17,996
3%
4.6
18,728
19,344
3%
4.5
Dale Blvd (Rt 784)
Opitz Blvd
S
1,640
1,415
-16%
5.8
21,674
21,078
-3%
4.1
23,314
22,493
-4%
5.4
Opitz Blvd
Prince William Pkwy(Rt 630/3000)
S
1,486
1,415
-5%
1.9
21,828
21,078
-4%
5.1
23,314
22,493
-4%
5.4
Prince William Pkwy(Rt 630/3000) Gordon Blvd (Rt 123)
S
1,578
1,588
1%
0.2
25,250
24,248
-4%
6.4
26,828
25,836
-4%
6.1
Gordon Blvd (Rt 123)
Lorton Rd (Rt 642)
S
1,739
1,586
-10%
3.7
27,959
27,528
-2%
2.6
29,698
29,114
-2%
3.4
Lorton Rd (Rt 642)
Fairfax Cnty Pkwy (Rt 7100)
S
1,519
1,603
5%
2.1
26,272
26,304
0%
0.2
27,791
27,907
0%
0.7
Fairfax Cnty Pkwy (Rt 7100)
Franconia-Springfield Parkway
S
1,800
1,777
-1%
0.6
26,479
27,982
5%
9.1
28,279
29,758
5%
8.7
Franconia-Springfield Parkway
Franconia Road (Rt 644)
S
1,723
1,777
3%
1.3
26,364
26,538
1%
1.1
28,087
28,314
1%
1.4
Franconia Road (Rt 644)
Capital Beltway (I-495)
S
2,215
1,991
-11%
4.9
33,104
33,338
1%
1.3
35,319
35,330
0%
0.1
Capital Beltway (I-495)
Edsall Road (Rt 648)
S
148
184
19%
2.7
29,552
29,340
-1%
1.2
29,700
29,523
-1%
1.0
Edsall Road (Rt 648)
Duke St (Rt 236)
S
121
101
-21%
2.0
26,063
25,715
-1%
2.2
26,184
25,816
-1%
2.3
Duke St (Rt 236)
Seminary Road
S
141
98
-45%
4.0
26,493
26,768
1%
1.7
26,634
26,865
1%
1.4
Seminary Road
King St (Rt 7)
S
134
80
-67%
5.2
25,988
25,931
0%
0.4
26,122
26,011
0%
0.7
King St (Rt 7)
S. Shirlington Road
S
147
79
-86%
6.4
27,585
25,371
-9%
13.6
27,732
25,450
-9%
14.0
S. Shirlington Road
S. Glebe Road (Rt 120)
S
109
123
12%
1.3
23,055
26,771
14%
23.5
23,164
26,894
14%
23.6
S. Glebe Road (Rt 120)
S. Hayes Street
S
146
102
-43%
3.9
27,931
26,892
-4%
6.3
28,077
26,994
-4%
6.5
S. Hayes Street
S. Eads Street
S
83
294
72%
15.4
20,480
18,625
-10%
13.3
20,563
18,919
-9%
11.7
S. Eads Street
Jefferson Davis Highway (Rt 1)
S
83
349
76%
18.1
18,280
20,356
10%
14.9
18,363
20,705
11%
16.8
Jefferson Davis Highway (Rt 1)
Boundary Channel Drive
S
146
622
76%
24.3
26,608
24,956
-7%
10.3
26,754
25,578
-5%
7.3
Boundary Channel Drive
George Washington Mem. Pkwy
S
231
685
66%
21.2
30,246
33,949
11%
20.7
30,477
34,634
12%
23.0
91
I-95/I-395 HOT Lane
Appendix A
I-95/I-395 Screenline Summary for Off Peak
Sc30012
Truck
Dir
Sc30012
Auto
Sc30012
Total
From
To
Obs
Est
%Diff
GEH
Obs
Est
%Diff
GEH
Obs
Est
%Diff
Morris Rd
Massaponax Church Rd
N
891
808
-10%
2.8
4,060
3,970
-2%
1.4
4,951
4,779
-4%
2.5
Massaponax Church Rd
Jefferson Davis Highway (Rt 1)
N
842
808
-4%
1.2
4,109
3,970
-4%
2.2
4,951
4,779
-4%
2.5
GEH
Jefferson Davis Highway (Rt 1)
Germanna Highway (Rt 3)
N
959
823
-17%
4.6
4,683
4,382
-7%
4.5
5,642
5,205
-8%
5.9
Germanna Highway (Rt 3)
Warrenton Road (Rt 17)
N
1,320
943
-40%
11.2
6,447
5,878
-10%
7.2
7,767
6,821
-14%
11.1
Warrenton Road (Rt 17)
Centreport Parkway (Rt 627)
N
588
768
23%
6.9
5,292
6,328
16%
13.6
5,880
7,096
17%
15.1
Centreport Parkway (Rt 627)
Courthouse Road (Rt 630)
N
601
743
19%
5.5
5,408
6,015
10%
8.0
6,009
6,758
11%
9.4
Courthouse Road (Rt 630)
Garrisonville Road (Rt 610)
N
640
737
13%
3.7
5,762
5,573
-3%
2.5
6,402
6,310
-1%
1.2
Garrisonville Road (Rt 610)
Russell Road
N
715
759
6%
1.6
6,431
6,330
-2%
1.3
7,145
7,089
-1%
0.7
Russell Road
Joplin Road (Rt 619)
N
689
728
5%
1.5
6,200
6,231
0%
0.4
6,889
6,959
1%
0.8
Joplin Road (Rt 619)
Dumfries Road (Rt 234)
N
747
783
5%
1.3
6,719
6,513
-3%
2.5
7,466
7,297
-2%
2.0
Dumfries Road (Rt 234)
Dale Blvd (Rt 784)
N
669
714
6%
1.7
6,764
6,559
-3%
2.5
7,433
7,273
-2%
1.9
Dale Blvd (Rt 784)
Opitz Blvd
N
656
745
12%
3.4
6,632
8,175
19%
17.9
7,288
8,920
18%
18.1
Opitz Blvd
Prince William Pkwy(Rt 630/3000)
N
728
677
-8%
1.9
7,357
6,738
-9%
7.4
8,085
7,415
-9%
7.6
Prince William Pkwy(Rt 630/3000) Gordon Blvd (Rt 123)
N
692
726
5%
1.3
7,956
7,518
-6%
5.0
8,648
8,244
-5%
4.4
Gordon Blvd (Rt 123)
Lorton Rd (Rt 642)
N
742
687
-8%
2.0
8,532
8,588
1%
0.6
9,274
9,275
0%
0.0
Lorton Rd (Rt 642)
Fairfax Cnty Pkwy (Rt 7100)
N
728
729
0%
0.0
8,368
8,210
-2%
1.7
9,096
8,939
-2%
1.7
Fairfax Cnty Pkwy (Rt 7100)
Franconia-Springfield Parkway
N
754
776
3%
0.8
8,672
8,276
-5%
4.3
9,426
9,052
-4%
3.9
Franconia-Springfield Parkway
Franconia Road (Rt 644)
N
664
753
12%
3.3
7,640
7,202
-6%
5.1
8,304
7,955
-4%
3.9
Franconia Road (Rt 644)
Capital Beltway (I-495)
N
1,037
949
-9%
2.8
10,486
11,798
11%
12.4
11,523
12,747
10%
11.1
Capital Beltway (I-495)
Edsall Road (Rt 648)
N
231
332
30%
6.0
7,469
7,987
6%
5.9
7,700
8,320
7%
6.9
Edsall Road (Rt 648)
Duke St (Rt 236)
N
269
293
8%
1.4
8,694
7,864
-11%
9.1
8,963
8,156
-10%
8.7
Duke St (Rt 236)
Seminary Road
N
303
299
-2%
0.3
9,810
8,870
-11%
9.7
10,113
9,169
-10%
9.6
Seminary Road
King St (Rt 7)
N
307
328
6%
1.2
9,913
9,746
-2%
1.7
10,220
10,074
-1%
1.5
King St (Rt 7)
S. Shirlington Road
N
281
327
14%
2.6
9,080
9,686
6%
6.3
9,361
10,013
7%
6.6
S. Shirlington Road
S. Glebe Road (Rt 120)
N
309
367
16%
3.1
9,992
10,581
6%
5.8
10,301
10,948
6%
6.3
S. Glebe Road (Rt 120)
S. Hayes Street
N
279
291
4%
0.7
9,011
8,787
-3%
2.4
9,290
9,078
-2%
2.2
S. Hayes Street
S. Eads Street
N
219
385
43%
9.5
7,091
7,390
4%
3.5
7,310
7,775
6%
5.3
S. Eads Street
Jefferson Davis Highway (Rt 1)
N
219
385
43%
9.5
7,091
7,390
4%
3.5
7,310
7,775
6%
5.3
Jefferson Davis Highway (Rt 1)
Boundary Channel Drive
N
218
310
30%
5.6
7,063
5,776
-22%
16.1
7,281
6,086
-20%
14.6
Boundary Channel Drive
George Washington Mem. Pkwy
N
438
524
17%
4.0
14,146
13,917
-2%
1.9
14,584
14,441
-1%
1.2
Morris Rd
Massaponax Church Rd
S
1,012
947
-7%
2.1
4,609
4,773
3%
2.4
5,621
5,719
2%
1.3
Massaponax Church Rd
Jefferson Davis Highway (Rt 1)
S
956
947
-1%
0.3
4,665
4,773
2%
1.6
5,621
5,719
2%
1.3
8.5
Jefferson Davis Highway (Rt 1)
Germanna Highway (Rt 3)
S
1,195
981
-22%
6.5
5,836
5,351
-9%
6.5
7,031
6,333
-11%
Germanna Highway (Rt 3)
Warrenton Road (Rt 17)
S
1,524
1,097
-39%
11.8
7,442
7,107
-5%
3.9
8,966
8,204
-9%
8.2
Warrenton Road (Rt 17)
Centreport Parkway (Rt 627)
S
760
882
14%
4.3
6,836
7,658
11%
9.6
7,596
8,540
11%
10.5
Centreport Parkway (Rt 627)
Courthouse Road (Rt 630)
S
793
929
15%
4.7
7,134
7,847
9%
8.2
7,927
8,777
10%
9.3
Courthouse Road (Rt 630)
Garrisonville Road (Rt 610)
S
837
923
9%
2.9
7,529
7,516
0%
0.2
8,366
8,438
1%
0.8
4.1
Garrisonville Road (Rt 610)
Russell Road
S
904
953
5%
1.6
8,135
8,481
4%
3.8
9,039
9,434
4%
Russell Road
Joplin Road (Rt 619)
S
911
913
0%
0.1
8,198
7,979
-3%
2.4
9,109
8,893
-2%
2.3
Joplin Road (Rt 619)
Dumfries Road (Rt 234)
S
698
987
29%
10.0
8,575
8,920
4%
3.7
9,272
9,906
6%
6.5
Dumfries Road (Rt 234)
Dale Blvd (Rt 784)
S
664
935
29%
9.6
9,009
9,502
5%
5.1
9,673
10,436
7%
7.6
Dale Blvd (Rt 784)
Opitz Blvd
S
738
930
21%
6.6
10,446
10,460
0%
0.1
11,184
11,390
2%
1.9
Opitz Blvd
Prince William Pkwy(Rt 630/3000)
S
623
930
33%
11.0
10,561
10,460
-1%
1.0
11,184
11,390
2%
1.9
Prince William Pkwy(Rt 630/3000) Gordon Blvd (Rt 123)
S
603
1,000
40%
14.0
12,116
11,510
-5%
5.6
12,719
12,510
-2%
1.9
Gordon Blvd (Rt 123)
S
582
948
39%
13.2
12,464
12,651
1%
1.7
13,046
13,600
4%
4.8
0.3
Lorton Rd (Rt 642)
Lorton Rd (Rt 642)
Fairfax Cnty Pkwy (Rt 7100)
S
575
1,015
43%
15.6
13,288
12,819
-4%
4.1
13,863
13,833
0%
Fairfax Cnty Pkwy (Rt 7100)
Franconia-Springfield Parkway
S
877
1,110
21%
7.4
13,676
13,267
-3%
3.5
14,553
14,376
-1%
1.5
Franconia-Springfield Parkway
Franconia Road (Rt 644)
S
860
1,110
23%
8.0
13,635
13,267
-3%
3.2
14,495
14,376
-1%
1.0
24.4
Franconia Road (Rt 644)
Capital Beltway (I-495)
S
892
1,235
28%
10.5
13,170
15,874
17%
22.4
14,062
17,109
18%
Capital Beltway (I-495)
Edsall Road (Rt 648)
S
251
385
35%
7.5
12,569
11,708
-7%
7.8
12,820
12,093
-6%
6.5
Edsall Road (Rt 648)
Duke St (Rt 236)
S
253
319
21%
3.9
12,644
11,276
-12%
12.5
12,897
11,596
-11%
11.8
1.9
Duke St (Rt 236)
Seminary Road
S
317
335
5%
1.0
13,462
13,221
-2%
2.1
13,779
13,556
-2%
Seminary Road
King St (Rt 7)
S
292
335
13%
2.5
12,769
12,590
-1%
1.6
13,061
12,925
-1%
1.2
King St (Rt 7)
S. Shirlington Road
S
293
330
11%
2.1
12,829
11,997
-7%
7.5
13,122
12,327
-6%
7.0
23.5
S. Shirlington Road
S. Glebe Road (Rt 120)
S
220
383
43%
9.4
10,623
13,047
19%
22.3
10,843
13,430
19%
S. Glebe Road (Rt 120)
S. Hayes Street
S
280
336
17%
3.2
12,556
11,893
-6%
6.0
12,836
12,229
-5%
5.4
S. Hayes Street
S. Eads Street
S
161
306
47%
9.5
9,121
9,481
4%
3.7
9,282
9,787
5%
5.2
7.9
S. Eads Street
Jefferson Davis Highway (Rt 1)
S
161
306
47%
9.5
8,857
9,481
7%
6.5
9,018
9,787
8%
Jefferson Davis Highway (Rt 1)
Boundary Channel Drive
S
300
480
38%
9.1
13,332
12,467
-7%
7.6
13,632
12,947
-5%
5.9
Boundary Channel Drive
George Washington Mem. Pkwy
S
487
480
-1%
0.3
15,736
15,572
-1%
1.3
16,223
16,052
-1%
1.3
92
I-95/I-395 HOT Lane
Appendix B
Appendix B – Key Road Network Improvements
(FAMPO CLRP)
93
I-95/I-395 HOT Lane
Appendix B
Street Name
Route Number
From
To
Type of Improvement
Number of Lanes
Description of Improvement
PRIMARY SYSTEM
(St) Butler Road
Widen roadway to 4-lanes.
Widen and improve intersections and
close unsignalized crossovers.
Rte 212
Rte 1
Castle Rock
Widening
4
Rte 3
Gordon Rd. (Rte. 627)
Rutherford Dr
Widening
6
Rte 1
Widewater Parkway
Rte 610
Widening
6
Rte 1
Rte 610
Rte 630
Widening
6
Fredericksburg City
Limits
Courthouse Road (Rte
208)
Courthouse Road (Rte
208)
Mills Drive (US 17
Bypass)
Widening
6
Widening
6
Rte 17
Bypass
Rte 1
Rte 2
Widening
4
(St) Route 1 River Bridge
Rte 1
Rte 17 Business
Pr. Anne Street
Bridge Replacement
6
(St) Warrenton Rd
Rte 17
I-95
Village Parkway
Widening
6
Widen and improve roadway to a sixlane
divided facility.
-
West City Limits
Mary Washington Blvd
Ext
Widening
4
Widen existing roadway to four-lanes
with
a bicycle path.
Jeff Davis Hwy
Rte 1
South City Limits
Rte 3 Interchange
Jeff Davis Hwy
Rte 1
Germanna Highway (Rt3)
Princess Anne Street
William St/Plank Rd
Rte 3
Mahone Dr
Jeff Davis Hwy
(Sp) Germanna Highway
(St) Jefferson Davis
Highway
(St) Jefferson Davis
Highway
(St) Jefferson Davis
Highway
(St) Jefferson Davis
Highway
(Sp) Mills Drive
Rte 1
Rte 1
Widen to a six -lane divided facility
Widen to a six -lane divided facility
Widen to a six -lane divided facility
Widen to a six -lane divided facility
Widen to a four -lane divided facility
Replace with a six-lane bridge
URBAN SYSTEM - CITY OF FREDERICKSBURG
Fall Hill Ave
Widening &
Improvements
Widening &
Improvements
Widening &
Improvements
6
6
6
Widen existing roadway to 6-lanes.
Widen existing roadway to 6-lanes.
Widen existing roadway to 6-lanes
SECONDARY SYSTEM - SPOTSYLVANIA COUNTY
Gordon Rd
Rte 627
Route 628
Route 620
Widening &
Improvements
4
Harrison Rd
Rte 620
Route 639
Route 1 Bypass
Widening &
Improvements
4
Hood Dr
Rte 636
Route 208
Route 1
Widening
4
Leavells Rd
Rte 639
Route 208
Route 620
Widening
4
Reconstruct existing roadway to a
fourlane
divided facility with bicycle &
pedestrian facilities.
Massaponax Church Rd
Rte 608
Route 628
Route 1
Widening &
Improvements
4
Reconstruct existing roadway to a
four-lane divided facility with
pedestrian facilities
Mine Rd
Rte 636
Route 1
Route 638
Widening
4
Widen existing roadway to a fourlanes
divided facility with sidewalks
Morris Rd
Rte 606
Route 1
Route 208
Widening &
Improvements
4
Widen existing roadway to four-lanes
with a multi-use path.
Mudd Tavern Rd
Rte 606
Route 1
I-95
Widening &
Improvements
4
Old Plank Rd
Rte 610
Route 627
Route 612
Widening
4
Smith Station Rd
Rte 628
Route 608
Route 627
Widening
4
Widen existing roadway to a four lane
facility with sidewalks.
Reconstruct existing roadway to a
fourlane
divided facility ,including I-95 OvP
Widen existing roadway to a four-lane
divided facility with sidewalks.
Widen existing roadway to four lanes.
Reconstruct existing facility to a fourlane
divided roadway with sidewalks
and multi-use paths.
Reconstruct roadway to a four-lane
divided facility with sidewalks.
SECONDARY SYSTEM - STAFFORD COUNTY
Cool Spring Rd
Rte 607
Route 218
Route 3
Widening
4
Courthouse Rd
Rte 630
Route 648
I-95
Widening & Improvements
4
Deacon Rd
Rte 607
Route 218
Route 626
Widening & Improvements
4
Garrisonville Rd
Rte 610
Route 1
I-95 Sthbnd ramp
Widening
8
Garrisonville Rd
Rte 610
I-95 Sthbnd ramp
Route 684
Widening
6
Garrisonville Rd
Rte 610
Route 684
Route 641
Widening
6
Mine Rd (Ext.)
Rte 684
Route 630
Route 628
New Construction
4
Mine Rd (Ext.)
Rte 684
Route 628
Route 627
Widening
4
Shelton Shop Road
Rte 648
Route 610
Route 627
Widening
4
94
Widen roadway to four-lanes.
Widen to four-lanes.
Wide facility to eight-lanes to reduce
congestion
Widen existing facility to six-lanes to
reduce
congestion.
Widen existing facility to six-lanes to
reduce congestion
Construct new four-lane roadway
connecting Garrisonville and Ramoth
Church Road
Widen roadway to a four-lane divided
facility
Widen roadway to four-lane divided
facility
I-95/I-395 HOT Lane
Appendix C
Appendix C – Key Road Network Improvements
(NCRTPB CLRP)
95
I-95/I-395 HOT Lane
Appendix C
Key Road Network Improvements (NCRTPB CLRP)
Street Name
Route Number
From
To
Type of Improvement
Number of Lanes
Jefferson Davis
Highway
US 1
Joplin Rd
I-495
widening
-
Interstate -95
I-95
Meeres Rd
New Construciton and
Improvement
widening
New Construciton and
Improvement
4
interchange reconstruction with access
ramps to I-495
widen to 4 lanes
-
construct interchange
Interchange at I-495
US 1
-
Description of Improvement
widen to 6, 8 lanes
Old Mill Road
-
Interstate 95
I-95
Interchange at VA 7900
Interstate 66
I-66
inside the beltway
Improvement
-
spot improvements inside the beltway
Interstate 66
I-66
Interchange at US 29
Reconstruction
-
reconstruct interchange
Interstate 495
I-495
Interchange at I-66
Reconstruction
-
reconstruct interchange
widening
6
widen 6 lanes
Fairfax County Pkwy
VA 7100
Occoquan Regional Park
Acess Rd
interchange at Fair Lakes Parkway
Fairfax County Pkwy
VA 7100
I-66
Ox Rd
VA 123
Braddock Rd
Popes Head Rd
96
Construction
-
interchange at Fair Lakes Parkway
widening
6
widen to 6 lanes
I-95/I-395 HOT Lane
Appendix D
Appendix D – I-95/I-395 HOT Ingress and Egress
Ramps
97
I-95/I-395 HOT Lane
Appendix D
Southern Section
Version dated: 18-Aug-2008
98
I-95/I-395 HOT Lane
Appendix D
Northern Section
Revised version: 2-Jun-2008
99
I-95/I-395 HOT Lane
Appendix E
Appendix E – Detailed Results from Main Tests
100
I-95/I-395 HOT Lane
Appendix E
Main Tests – Detailed Results
This Appendix contains detailed results from the five main tests carried out. A revenue stream
is provided for each sensitivity test, including separate streams for the northern and southern
sectors. In addition, summary traffic information has also been included.
Main Tests
•
•
•
•
•
55mph Throughout
45mph Throughout
65mph Throughout
Revenue Optimal Toll Rates
Toll Schedule v1
Transactions
An initial assessment of the number of transactions has been carried out for the 55 mph
throughput and revenue optimal toll rates tests. These were based on the premise that a
‘transaction’ is recorded whenever a vehicle is modeled to enter or leave the HOT lane (via
any of the possible entry and exit points). This is a simplification to give an indication of the
amount of traffic transactions there may be. Future refinement of the independent traffic and
revenue forecasts will consider the situation where the number of transactions is directly
related to the number of tolling gantries installed, as well as the speed monitoring regime.
Transactions for 55 mph throughput and revenue optimal toll rates tests are in this Appendix
alongside the other results for those tests. Transaction numbers have not been estimated for
other tests.
101
I-95/I-395 HOT Lane
Appendix E
Revenue Stream – 55mph throughput – ALL
Year
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
2030
2031
2032
2033
2034
2035
2036
2037
2038
2039
2040
2041
2042
2043
2044
2045
2046
2047
2048
2049
2050
2051
2052
2053
2054
2055
2056
2057
2058
2059
2060
2061
2062
2063
2064
2065
2066
2067
2068
2069
2070
2071
Total
Unramped
Revenue
2008 $M
62.0
66.8
71.6
91.8
97.2
102.6
108.0
113.4
118.7
124.1
129.5
134.9
140.3
145.7
151.1
156.5
161.9
167.3
172.7
176.9
181.0
185.0
188.9
192.6
196.3
199.8
203.2
206.5
209.5
212.4
214.9
217.1
219.2
221.1
223.0
224.9
226.7
228.5
230.1
231.7
233.2
234.7
236.1
237.6
239.0
240.5
242.0
243.6
245.1
246.5
248.0
249.5
251.0
252.4
253.9
255.2
256.5
257.8
259.1
260.4
11,647.5
HOT Traffic
Growth
post 2030 pa
3.9%
3.8%
3.6%
3.5%
3.4%
3.3%
3.2%
3.1%
3.0%
2.9%
2.8%
2.7%
2.7%
2.6%
2.5%
2.4%
2.3%
2.2%
2.1%
2.0%
1.9%
1.8%
1.7%
1.6%
1.5%
1.4%
1.3%
1.2%
1.1%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
Discounted
& Ramped
Revenue
2008 $M
26.4
36.9
42.7
49.4
48.5
47.2
45.6
43.9
42.2
40.5
38.8
37.0
35.3
33.7
32.0
30.4
28.9
27.4
25.9
24.4
22.9
21.5
20.1
18.8
17.6
16.4
15.3
14.3
13.3
12.4
11.5
10.6
9.9
9.1
8.4
7.8
7.2
6.7
6.2
5.7
5.3
4.9
4.5
4.1
3.8
3.5
3.3
3.0
2.8
2.6
2.4
2.2
2.0
1.9
1.7
1.6
1.5
1.3
1.2
1.1
1,047.3
Throughput @ 55mph, 6 segments
Key assumptions
- Growth from 2015 to 2030 interpolated from model-year results
- Growth rate beyond 2030 assumed decreasing 0.1% per annum to 1%
- Revenue growth is capped by capacity of individual HOT lane sections
- Ramp-up of revenue assumed:
60% year 1
85% year 2
100% year 3 onwards
Adjusted for Southern Section:
86% year 1
95% year 2
100% year 3 onwards
- Model revenue 2005 prices increased to 2008 prices using CPI-U
194.4 : 2005 Jan-Sep
216.0 : 2008 Jan-Sep
11.1% : 2005 Jan-Sep to 2008 Jan-Sep
- Discount rate to 2008 prices :
9%
- 2015 & 2030 Value of Time escalation based on growth in GDP
0.75 x forecast increase in GDP per capita:
1.0952 : 2005 to 2015
1.2989 : 2005 to 2030
102
I-95/I-395 HOT Lane
Appendix E
Revenue Stream – 55mph throughput – NORTHERN SECTION
Year
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
2030
2031
2032
2033
2034
2035
2036
2037
2038
2039
2040
2041
2042
2043
2044
2045
2046
2047
2048
2049
2050
2051
2052
2053
2054
2055
2056
2057
2058
2059
2060
2061
2062
2063
2064
2065
2066
2067
2068
2069
2070
2071
Total
Unramped
Revenue
2008 $M
62.0
66.8
71.6
80.6
85.7
90.8
95.9
101.0
106.1
111.2
116.2
121.3
126.4
131.5
136.6
141.7
146.8
151.8
156.9
160.7
164.5
168.1
171.7
175.2
178.6
181.8
185.0
187.9
190.8
193.5
195.7
197.7
199.6
201.3
203.0
204.7
206.4
208.0
209.5
211.0
212.3
213.6
214.9
216.3
217.6
218.9
220.3
221.6
223.0
224.3
225.7
227.0
228.4
229.7
231.1
232.3
233.5
234.7
235.8
237.0
10,594.0
HOT Traffic
Growth
post 2030 pa
3.9%
3.8%
3.6%
3.5%
3.4%
3.3%
3.2%
3.1%
3.0%
2.9%
2.8%
2.7%
2.7%
2.6%
2.5%
2.4%
2.3%
2.2%
2.1%
2.0%
1.9%
1.8%
1.7%
1.6%
1.5%
1.4%
1.3%
1.2%
1.1%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
Discounted
& Ramped
Revenue
2008 $M
26.4
36.9
42.7
44.1
43.0
41.8
40.5
39.1
37.7
36.3
34.8
33.3
31.8
30.4
29.0
27.6
26.2
24.9
23.6
22.1
20.8
19.5
18.3
17.1
16.0
14.9
13.9
13.0
12.1
11.3
10.4
9.7
9.0
8.3
7.7
7.1
6.6
6.1
5.6
5.2
4.8
4.4
4.1
3.8
3.5
3.2
3.0
2.7
2.5
2.3
2.1
2.0
1.8
1.7
1.6
1.4
1.3
1.2
1.1
1.0
954.3
Throughput @ 55mph, 6 segments
Key assumptions
- Growth from 2015 to 2030 interpolated from model-year results
- Growth rate beyond 2030 assumed decreasing 0.1% per annum to 1%
- Revenue growth is capped by capacity of individual HOT lane sections
- Ramp-up of revenue assumed:
60% year 1
85% year 2
100% year 3 onwards
Adjusted for Southern Section:
86% year 1
95% year 2
100% year 3 onwards
- Model revenue 2005 prices increased to 2008 prices using CPI-U
194.4 : 2005 Jan-Sep
216.0 : 2008 Jan-Sep
11.1% : 2005 Jan-Sep to 2008 Jan-Sep
- Discount rate to 2008 prices :
9%
- 2015 & 2030 Value of Time escalation based on growth in GDP
0.75 x forecast increase in GDP per capita:
1.0952 : 2005 to 2015
1.2989 : 2005 to 2030
103
I-95/I-395 HOT Lane
Appendix E
Revenue Stream – 55mph throughput – SOUTHERN SECTION
Year
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
2030
2031
2032
2033
2034
2035
2036
2037
2038
2039
2040
2041
2042
2043
2044
2045
2046
2047
2048
2049
2050
2051
2052
2053
2054
2055
2056
2057
2058
2059
2060
2061
2062
2063
2064
2065
2066
2067
2068
2069
2070
2071
Total
Unramped
Revenue
2008 $M
11.1
11.4
11.7
12.1
12.4
12.7
13.0
13.3
13.6
13.9
14.2
14.5
14.8
15.1
15.5
15.8
16.1
16.5
16.8
17.1
17.4
17.7
18.0
18.3
18.5
18.8
19.0
19.2
19.4
19.6
19.8
19.9
20.1
20.3
20.4
20.6
20.7
20.9
21.0
21.2
21.3
21.5
21.6
21.8
21.9
22.1
22.2
22.3
22.5
22.6
22.7
22.8
22.9
23.0
23.1
23.3
23.4
1,053.5
HOT Traffic
Growth
post 2030 pa
3.9%
3.8%
3.6%
3.5%
3.4%
3.3%
3.2%
3.1%
3.0%
2.9%
2.8%
2.7%
2.7%
2.6%
2.5%
2.4%
2.3%
2.2%
2.1%
2.0%
1.9%
1.8%
1.7%
1.6%
1.5%
1.4%
1.3%
1.2%
1.1%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
Discounted
& Ramped
Revenue
2008 $M
5.3
5.4
5.4
5.1
4.8
4.5
4.2
4.0
3.7
3.5
3.3
3.1
2.9
2.7
2.5
2.4
2.2
2.1
2.0
1.8
1.7
1.6
1.5
1.4
1.3
1.2
1.1
1.0
1.0
0.9
0.8
0.8
0.7
0.6
0.6
0.6
0.5
0.5
0.4
0.4
0.4
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
92.9
Throughput @ 55mph, 6 segments
Key assumptions
- Growth from 2015 to 2030 interpolated from model-year results
- Growth rate beyond 2030 assumed decreasing 0.1% per annum to 1%
- Revenue growth is capped by capacity of individual HOT lane sections
- Ramp-up of revenue assumed:
60% year 1
85% year 2
100% year 3 onwards
Adjusted for Southern Section:
86% year 1
95% year 2
100% year 3 onwards
- Model revenue 2005 prices increased to 2008 prices using CPI-U
194.4 : 2005 Jan-Sep
216.0 : 2008 Jan-Sep
11.1% : 2005 Jan-Sep to 2008 Jan-Sep
- Discount rate to 2008 prices :
9%
- 2015 & 2030 Value of Time escalation based on growth in GDP
0.75 x forecast increase in GDP per capita:
1.0952 : 2005 to 2015
1.2989 : 2005 to 2030
104
I-95/I-395 HOT Lane
Appendix E
Segment Summary – 55mph throughput
All prices in 2008 $
All traffic flows weighted averages
Northern Section
Southern Section
AM
2015
PM
OP
AM
2030
PM
OP
TOLL RATES
A
B
C
D
E
F
Seminary Rd (Rt 420)
Franconia-Springfield Pkwy (Rt 7900)
Gordon Blvd (Rt 123)
Garrisonville Rd (Rt 610)
Mountain View Rd (Rt 627)
Massaponax
A
B
C
D
E
F
Seminary Rd (Rt 420)
Franconia-Springfield Pkwy (Rt 7900)
Gordon Blvd (Rt 123)
Garrisonville Rd (Rt 610)
Mountain View Rd (Rt 627)
Massaponax
A
B
C
D
E
F
Seminary Rd (Rt 420)
Franconia-Springfield Pkwy (Rt 7900)
Gordon Blvd (Rt 123)
Garrisonville Rd (Rt 610)
Mountain View Rd (Rt 627)
Massaponax
A
B
C
D
E
F
Seminary Rd (Rt 420)
Franconia-Springfield Pkwy (Rt 7900)
Gordon Blvd (Rt 123)
Garrisonville Rd (Rt 610)
Mountain View Rd (Rt 627)
Massaponax
A
B
C
D
E
F
Seminary Rd (Rt 420)
Franconia-Springfield Pkwy (Rt 7900)
Gordon Blvd (Rt 123)
Garrisonville Rd (Rt 610)
Mountain View Rd (Rt 627)
Massaponax
A
B
C
D
E
F
Seminary Rd (Rt 420)
Franconia-Springfield Pkwy (Rt 7900)
Gordon Blvd (Rt 123)
Garrisonville Rd (Rt 610)
Mountain View Rd (Rt 627)
Massaponax
A
B
C
D
E
F
Seminary Rd (Rt 420)
Franconia-Springfield Pkwy (Rt 7900)
Gordon Blvd (Rt 123)
Garrisonville Rd (Rt 610)
Mountain View Rd (Rt 627)
Massaponax
Eads Street/Pentagon
Seminary Rd (Rt 420)
Franconia-Springfield Pkwy (Rt 7900)
Gordon Blvd (Rt 123)
Garrisonville Rd (Rt 610)
Mountain View Rd (Rt 627)
$1.70
$0.73
$0.12
$0.12
$0.12
$0.12
$0.61
$0.85
$0.73
$0.73
$0.12
$0.12
$0.12
$0.12
$0.12
$0.12
$0.12
$0.12
$2.16
$1.59
$0.87
$0.87
$0.14
$0.14
$1.60
$1.74
$1.73
$2.03
$0.14
$0.14
$0.15
$0.14
$0.14
$0.29
$0.14
$0.14
Eads Street/Pentagon
Seminary Rd (Rt 420)
Franconia-Springfield Pkwy (Rt 7900)
Gordon Blvd (Rt 123)
Garrisonville Rd (Rt 610)
Mountain View Rd (Rt 627)
$5.98
$4.97
$1.37
$2.00
$0.93
$1.34
$2.15
$5.82
$8.19
$12.03
$0.92
$1.35
$0.43
$0.83
$1.37
$2.01
$0.92
$1.35
$7.60
$10.81
$9.74
$14.22
$1.10
$1.59
$5.62
$11.83
$19.43
$33.30
$1.09
$1.60
$0.51
$0.99
$1.62
$4.76
$1.09
$1.60
Eads Street/Pentagon
Seminary Rd (Rt 420)
Franconia-Springfield Pkwy (Rt 7900)
Gordon Blvd (Rt 123)
Garrisonville Rd (Rt 610)
Mountain View Rd (Rt 627)
6,468
5,167
8,692
5,931
6,162
5,205
6,701
6,883
5,100
3,375
3,527
2,113
5,494
5,549
6,263
4,320
3,598
2,249
5,119
3,815
5,950
4,231
6,003
6,312
5,162
5,583
3,614
2,622
4,303
3,118
5,859
6,142
7,259
4,957
4,517
2,739
Eads Street/Pentagon
Seminary Rd (Rt 420)
Franconia-Springfield Pkwy (Rt 7900)
Gordon Blvd (Rt 123)
Garrisonville Rd (Rt 610)
Mountain View Rd (Rt 627)
11,756
10,370
13,061
7,966
7,207
5,727
11,252
11,405
9,068
5,538
4,805
2,478
6,376
6,606
7,527
5,339
4,444
2,795
11,067
9,807
11,118
6,735
7,315
6,954
10,314
10,736
8,246
5,258
5,915
3,557
6,839
7,332
8,740
6,182
5,534
3,366
Eads Street/Pentagon
Seminary Rd (Rt 420)
Franconia-Springfield Pkwy (Rt 7900)
Gordon Blvd (Rt 123)
Garrisonville Rd (Rt 610)
Mountain View Rd (Rt 627)
79.3%
69.7%
76.0%
63.8%
60.1%
49.6%
77.5%
76.4%
51.4%
40.3%
40.3%
21.5%
43.9%
44.3%
42.7%
38.8%
37.3%
24.2%
74.7%
65.9%
64.7%
54.0%
61.0%
60.3%
71.0%
71.9%
46.7%
38.2%
49.6%
30.8%
47.1%
49.1%
49.5%
44.9%
46.4%
29.1%
57.2
62.5
60.4
63.2
64.4
64.5
59.5
61.0
64.6
64.8
65.1
65.1
63.4
63.8
63.8
64.0
64.7
65.0
59.5
63.3
63.5
64.3
64.5
63.2
61.4
62.3
64.7
64.8
65.0
65.1
62.1
62.7
61.2
62.5
63.5
64.9
20,456
19,327
19,047
13,387
11,842
10,386
19,159
21,479
22,200
16,683
12,964
14,593
8,594
9,657
9,877
8,645
7,600
7,184
21,695
21,068
24,565
17,333
16,446
14,218
20,484
22,740
25,824
19,444
16,043
18,115
8,803
10,114
11,019
9,757
9,039
8,929
TOTAL TOLLS FOR SEGMENT
HOT PAY TRAFFIC
HOT ALL TRAFFIC
HOT LANE USAGE (V/C)
HOT LANE SPEED (mph) - segment average
Eads Street/Pentagon
Seminary Rd (Rt 420)
Franconia-Springfield Pkwy (Rt 7900)
Gordon Blvd (Rt 123)
Garrisonville Rd (Rt 610)
Mountain View Rd (Rt 627)
GP TRAFFIC (in direction of operating HOT lanes only)
Eads Street/Pentagon
Seminary Rd (Rt 420)
Franconia-Springfield Pkwy (Rt 7900)
Gordon Blvd (Rt 123)
Garrisonville Rd (Rt 610)
Mountain View Rd (Rt 627)
105
I-95/I-395 HOT Lane
Appendix E
Cumulative Travel Times – 55mph throughput
2015 AM Peak (northbound)
2030 AM Peak (northbound)
140
140
GP Lanes
GP Lanes
HOT Lanes
HOT Lanes
120
Cumulative Journey Times (mins)
Cumulative Journey Times (mins)
120
100
80
60
40
20
100
80
60
40
20
0
0
26 25 24 23 22 21 20 19 18 17 16 15 14 13 12 11 10
9
8
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
26 25 24 23 22 21 20 19 18 17 16 15 14 13 12 11 10
Location (not to scale)
2015 PM Peak (southbound)
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
180
GP Lanes
HOT Lanes
GP Lanes
HOT Lanes
160
Cumulative Journey Times (mins)
120
Cumulative Journey Times (mins)
8
2030 PM Peak (southbound)
140
100
80
60
40
20
140
120
100
80
60
40
20
0
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
Location (not to scale)
10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26
Location (not to scale)
2015 Off-Peak (southbound)
2030 Off-Peak (southbound)
140
140
GP Lanes
HOT Lanes
GP Lanes
HOT Lanes
120
Cumulative Journey Times (mins)
120
Cumulative Journey Times (mins)
9
Location (not to scale)
100
80
60
40
20
100
80
60
40
20
0
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26
1
Location (not to scale)
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26
Location (not to scale)
Note: Locations are segment numbers as in Figure 8.1
106
I-95/I-395 HOT Lane
Appendix E
Transactions – 55mph throughput
Year
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
2030
2031
2032
2033
2034
2035
2036
2037
2038
2039
2040
2041
2042
2043
2044
2045
2046
2047
2048
2049
2050
2051
2052
2053
2054
2055
2056
2057
2058
2059
2060
2061
2062
2063
2064
2065
2066
2067
2068
2069
2070
2071
Annual Unramped Transaction (000's)
Segment A
Segment B
17,480
17,440
17,400
17,210
17,170
17,120
17,080
17,030
16,990
16,950
16,900
16,860
16,810
16,770
16,730
16,680
16,640
16,590
16,550
16,950
17,340
17,720
18,090
18,450
18,800
19,140
19,460
19,770
20,070
20,350
20,580
20,790
20,990
21,170
21,350
21,530
21,700
21,870
22,030
22,180
22,330
22,470
22,610
22,750
22,890
23,030
23,170
23,320
23,470
23,610
23,750
23,890
24,030
24,170
24,310
24,440
24,560
24,680
24,800
24,920
15,340
15,340
15,340
15,230
15,230
15,220
15,220
15,220
15,220
15,210
15,210
15,210
15,210
15,200
15,200
15,200
15,200
15,190
15,190
15,560
15,920
16,270
16,610
16,940
17,260
17,570
17,870
18,160
18,430
18,690
18,900
19,100
19,280
19,450
19,620
19,790
19,950
20,110
20,250
20,390
20,530
20,660
20,790
20,920
21,050
21,180
21,310
21,440
21,580
21,710
21,840
21,970
22,100
22,230
22,360
22,480
22,590
22,700
22,810
22,920
Segment C Segment D
11,820
11,790
11,760
11,660
11,630
11,610
11,580
11,560
11,530
11,510
11,480
11,460
11,430
11,410
11,380
11,360
11,330
11,310
11,280
11,550
11,820
12,080
12,330
12,580
12,820
13,050
13,270
13,480
13,680
13,870
14,030
14,180
14,310
14,430
14,550
14,670
14,790
14,910
15,020
15,120
15,220
15,320
15,410
15,510
15,610
15,710
15,810
15,910
16,010
16,100
16,200
16,300
16,400
16,500
16,600
16,690
16,770
16,850
16,930
17,010
18,180
18,050
17,920
17,140
17,010
16,880
16,750
16,620
16,490
16,360
16,230
16,110
15,980
15,850
15,720
15,590
15,460
15,330
15,200
15,570
15,930
16,280
16,620
16,950
17,270
17,580
17,880
18,170
18,440
18,700
18,910
19,110
19,290
19,460
19,630
19,800
19,960
20,120
20,260
20,400
20,540
20,670
20,800
20,930
21,060
21,190
21,320
21,450
21,590
21,720
21,850
21,980
22,110
22,240
22,370
22,490
22,600
22,710
22,820
22,930
Segment E
Segment F
2,650
2,730
2,810
2,890
2,970
3,050
3,130
3,210
3,290
3,370
3,450
3,530
3,610
3,690
3,770
3,850
3,940
4,030
4,120
4,210
4,290
4,370
4,450
4,530
4,600
4,670
4,730
4,780
4,830
4,880
4,920
4,960
5,000
5,040
5,080
5,120
5,150
5,180
5,210
5,240
5,270
5,300
5,330
5,360
5,390
5,420
5,450
5,480
5,510
5,540
5,570
5,600
5,630
5,660
5,690
5,720
5,750
10,140
10,320
10,500
10,670
10,850
11,030
11,210
11,390
11,560
11,740
11,920
12,100
12,280
12,450
12,630
12,810
13,120
13,420
13,720
14,010
14,290
14,560
14,820
15,070
15,310
15,540
15,760
15,940
16,110
16,260
16,400
16,540
16,680
16,820
16,950
17,070
17,190
17,300
17,410
17,520
17,630
17,740
17,850
17,960
18,070
18,180
18,290
18,400
18,510
18,620
18,730
18,840
18,940
19,040
19,140
19,230
19,330
Total
62,820
62,620
62,420
74,030
74,090
74,140
74,190
74,250
74,310
74,370
74,420
74,490
74,540
74,600
74,660
74,720
74,770
74,820
74,880
76,690
78,460
80,190
81,870
83,500
85,080
86,610
88,080
89,490
90,830
92,100
93,140
94,120
95,010
95,830
96,650
97,470
98,260
99,040
99,750
100,430
101,100
101,740
102,370
103,010
103,650
104,290
104,930
105,580
106,250
106,880
107,520
108,160
108,800
109,440
110,080
110,670
111,220
111,770
112,310
112,860
Note: Transactions estimated from traffic entering and leaving the HOT lanes via entry/exit points
107
I-95/I-395 HOT Lane
Appendix E
Revenue Stream – 45mph throughput – ALL
Year
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
2030
2031
2032
2033
2034
2035
2036
2037
2038
2039
2040
2041
2042
2043
2044
2045
2046
2047
2048
2049
2050
2051
2052
2053
2054
2055
2056
2057
2058
2059
2060
2061
2062
2063
2064
2065
2066
2067
2068
2069
2070
2071
Total
Unramped
Revenue
2008 $M
57.0
63.5
70.0
83.1
89.5
95.9
102.3
108.7
115.1
121.4
127.8
134.2
140.6
147.0
153.4
159.8
166.1
172.5
178.9
184.0
189.0
193.9
198.3
202.6
206.7
210.8
214.4
217.7
220.7
223.4
226.0
228.3
230.4
232.4
234.2
235.8
237.3
238.7
239.9
240.9
241.9
242.9
244.0
245.1
246.1
247.1
248.1
249.2
250.0
250.8
251.5
252.3
253.0
253.7
254.4
255.1
255.7
256.3
256.9
257.5
11,903.9
HOT Traffic
Growth
post 2030 pa
5.4%
5.2%
4.9%
4.7%
4.5%
4.3%
4.1%
3.9%
3.8%
3.6%
3.5%
3.4%
3.3%
3.2%
3.1%
3.0%
2.9%
2.8%
2.7%
2.6%
2.5%
2.4%
2.3%
2.2%
2.1%
2.0%
1.9%
1.8%
1.7%
1.6%
1.5%
1.4%
1.3%
1.2%
1.1%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
Discounted
& Ramped
Revenue
2008 $M
24.2
35.1
41.7
44.5
44.6
44.2
43.2
42.1
40.9
39.6
38.3
36.8
35.4
34.0
32.5
31.1
29.6
28.2
26.9
25.4
23.9
22.5
21.1
19.8
18.5
17.3
16.2
15.1
14.0
13.0
12.1
11.2
10.4
9.6
8.9
8.2
7.6
7.0
6.4
5.9
5.5
5.0
4.6
4.3
3.9
3.6
3.3
3.1
2.8
2.6
2.4
2.2
2.0
1.9
1.7
1.6
1.5
1.3
1.2
1.1
1,042.5
Throughput @ 45mph, 6 segments
Key assumptions
- Growth from 2015 to 2030 interpolated from model-year results
- Growth rate beyond 2030 assumed decreasing 0.1% per annum to 1%
- Revenue growth is capped by capacity of individual HOT lane sections
- Ramp-up of revenue assumed:
60% year 1
85% year 2
100% year 3 onwards
Adjusted for Southern Section:
86% year 1
95% year 2
100% year 3 onwards
- Model revenue 2005 prices increased to 2008 prices using CPI-U
194.4 : 2005 Jan-Sep
216.0 : 2008 Jan-Sep
11.1% : 2005 Jan-Sep to 2008 Jan-Sep
- Discount rate to 2008 prices :
9%
- 2015 & 2030 Value of Time escalation based on growth in GDP
0.75 x forecast increase in GDP per capita:
1.0952 : 2005 to 2015
1.2989 : 2005 to 2030
108
I-95/I-395 HOT Lane
Appendix E
Revenue Stream – 45mph throughput – NORTHERN SECTION
Year
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
2030
2031
2032
2033
2034
2035
2036
2037
2038
2039
2040
2041
2042
2043
2044
2045
2046
2047
2048
2049
2050
2051
2052
2053
2054
2055
2056
2057
2058
2059
2060
2061
2062
2063
2064
2065
2066
2067
2068
2069
2070
2071
Total
Unramped
Revenue
2008 $M
57.0
63.5
70.0
70.6
76.6
82.6
88.5
94.5
100.5
106.5
112.5
118.5
124.5
130.5
136.5
142.4
148.4
154.4
160.4
165.0
169.4
173.8
177.6
181.4
185.1
188.7
191.8
194.6
197.2
199.6
201.8
203.7
205.5
207.2
208.8
210.1
211.4
212.5
213.6
214.5
215.3
216.2
217.1
218.0
218.9
219.8
220.7
221.6
222.2
222.8
223.4
224.0
224.6
225.1
225.6
226.1
226.5
227.0
227.4
227.9
10,602.0
HOT Traffic
Growth
post 2030 pa
5.4%
5.2%
4.9%
4.7%
4.5%
4.3%
4.1%
3.9%
3.8%
3.6%
3.5%
3.4%
3.3%
3.2%
3.1%
3.0%
2.9%
2.8%
2.7%
2.6%
2.5%
2.4%
2.3%
2.2%
2.1%
2.0%
1.9%
1.8%
1.7%
1.6%
1.5%
1.4%
1.3%
1.2%
1.1%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
Discounted
& Ramped
Revenue
2008 $M
24.2
35.1
41.7
38.6
38.4
38.0
37.4
36.6
35.7
34.7
33.7
32.5
31.4
30.1
28.9
27.7
26.5
25.3
24.1
22.7
21.4
20.2
18.9
17.7
16.6
15.5
14.5
13.5
12.5
11.6
10.8
10.0
9.2
8.5
7.9
7.3
6.7
6.2
5.7
5.3
4.9
4.5
4.1
3.8
3.5
3.2
3.0
2.7
2.5
2.3
2.1
2.0
1.8
1.7
1.5
1.4
1.3
1.2
1.1
1.0
933.0
Throughput @ 45mph, 6 segments
Key assumptions
- Growth from 2015 to 2030 interpolated from model-year results
- Growth rate beyond 2030 assumed decreasing 0.1% per annum to 1%
- Revenue growth is capped by capacity of individual HOT lane sections
- Ramp-up of revenue assumed:
60% year 1
85% year 2
100% year 3 onwards
Adjusted for Southern Section:
86% year 1
95% year 2
100% year 3 onwards
- Model revenue 2005 prices increased to 2008 prices using CPI-U
194.4 : 2005 Jan-Sep
216.0 : 2008 Jan-Sep
11.1% : 2005 Jan-Sep to 2008 Jan-Sep
- Discount rate to 2008 prices :
9%
- 2015 & 2030 Value of Time escalation based on growth in GDP
0.75 x forecast increase in GDP per capita:
1.0952 : 2005 to 2015
1.2989 : 2005 to 2030
109
I-95/I-395 HOT Lane
Appendix E
Revenue Stream – 45mph throughput – SOUTHERN SECTION
Year
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
2030
2031
2032
2033
2034
2035
2036
2037
2038
2039
2040
2041
2042
2043
2044
2045
2046
2047
2048
2049
2050
2051
2052
2053
2054
2055
2056
2057
2058
2059
2060
2061
2062
2063
2064
2065
2066
2067
2068
2069
2070
2071
Total
Unramped
Revenue
2008 $M
12.6
13.0
13.3
13.7
14.1
14.5
14.9
15.3
15.7
16.1
16.5
16.9
17.3
17.7
18.1
18.5
19.1
19.6
20.1
20.6
21.1
21.6
22.1
22.6
23.1
23.5
23.9
24.2
24.6
24.9
25.2
25.5
25.7
25.9
26.1
26.3
26.4
26.6
26.7
26.9
27.0
27.2
27.3
27.5
27.6
27.8
28.0
28.1
28.3
28.5
28.6
28.8
29.0
29.1
29.3
29.4
29.6
1,301.9
HOT Traffic
Growth
post 2030 pa
5.4%
5.2%
4.9%
4.7%
4.5%
4.3%
4.1%
3.9%
3.8%
3.6%
3.5%
3.4%
3.3%
3.2%
3.1%
3.0%
2.9%
2.8%
2.7%
2.6%
2.5%
2.4%
2.3%
2.2%
2.1%
2.0%
1.9%
1.8%
1.7%
1.6%
1.5%
1.4%
1.3%
1.2%
1.1%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
Discounted
& Ramped
Revenue
2008 $M
5.9
6.2
6.1
5.8
5.5
5.2
4.9
4.6
4.3
4.1
3.8
3.6
3.4
3.2
3.0
2.8
2.6
2.5
2.3
2.2
2.1
1.9
1.8
1.7
1.6
1.5
1.4
1.3
1.2
1.1
1.0
1.0
0.9
0.8
0.8
0.7
0.6
0.6
0.6
0.5
0.5
0.4
0.4
0.4
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.1
0.1
109.5
Throughput @ 45mph, 6 segments
Key assumptions
- Growth from 2015 to 2030 interpolated from model-year results
- Growth rate beyond 2030 assumed decreasing 0.1% per annum to 1%
- Revenue growth is capped by capacity of individual HOT lane sections
- Ramp-up of revenue assumed:
60% year 1
85% year 2
100% year 3 onwards
Adjusted for Southern Section:
86% year 1
95% year 2
100% year 3 onwards
- Model revenue 2005 prices increased to 2008 prices using CPI-U
194.4 : 2005 Jan-Sep
216.0 : 2008 Jan-Sep
11.1% : 2005 Jan-Sep to 2008 Jan-Sep
- Discount rate to 2008 prices :
9%
- 2015 & 2030 Value of Time escalation based on growth in GDP
0.75 x forecast increase in GDP per capita:
1.0952 : 2005 to 2015
1.2989 : 2005 to 2030
110
I-95/I-395 HOT Lane
Appendix E
Segment Summary – 45mph throughput
All prices in 2008 $
All traffic flows weighted averages
Northern Section
Southern Section
AM
2015
PM
OP
AM
2030
PM
OP
TOLL RATES
A
B
C
D
E
F
Seminary Rd (Rt 420)
Franconia-Springfield Pkwy (Rt 7900)
Gordon Blvd (Rt 123)
Garrisonville Rd (Rt 610)
Mountain View Rd (Rt 627)
Massaponax
A
B
C
D
E
F
Seminary Rd (Rt 420)
Franconia-Springfield Pkwy (Rt 7900)
Gordon Blvd (Rt 123)
Garrisonville Rd (Rt 610)
Mountain View Rd (Rt 627)
Massaponax
A
B
C
D
E
F
Seminary Rd (Rt 420)
Franconia-Springfield Pkwy (Rt 7900)
Gordon Blvd (Rt 123)
Garrisonville Rd (Rt 610)
Mountain View Rd (Rt 627)
Massaponax
A
B
C
D
E
F
Seminary Rd (Rt 420)
Franconia-Springfield Pkwy (Rt 7900)
Gordon Blvd (Rt 123)
Garrisonville Rd (Rt 610)
Mountain View Rd (Rt 627)
Massaponax
A
B
C
D
E
F
Seminary Rd (Rt 420)
Franconia-Springfield Pkwy (Rt 7900)
Gordon Blvd (Rt 123)
Garrisonville Rd (Rt 610)
Mountain View Rd (Rt 627)
Massaponax
A
B
C
D
E
F
Seminary Rd (Rt 420)
Franconia-Springfield Pkwy (Rt 7900)
Gordon Blvd (Rt 123)
Garrisonville Rd (Rt 610)
Mountain View Rd (Rt 627)
Massaponax
A
B
C
D
E
F
Seminary Rd (Rt 420)
Franconia-Springfield Pkwy (Rt 7900)
Gordon Blvd (Rt 123)
Garrisonville Rd (Rt 610)
Mountain View Rd (Rt 627)
Massaponax
Eads Street/Pentagon
Seminary Rd (Rt 420)
Franconia-Springfield Pkwy (Rt 7900)
Gordon Blvd (Rt 123)
Garrisonville Rd (Rt 610)
Mountain View Rd (Rt 627)
$1.46
$0.12
$0.12
$0.12
$0.12
$0.12
$0.12
$0.85
$0.24
$0.12
$0.12
$0.12
$0.12
$0.12
$0.12
$0.12
$0.12
$0.12
$1.73
$1.01
$0.72
$0.29
$0.14
$0.14
$1.31
$1.30
$1.30
$1.30
$0.14
$0.14
$0.15
$0.14
$0.14
$0.14
$0.14
$0.14
Eads Street/Pentagon
Seminary Rd (Rt 420)
Franconia-Springfield Pkwy (Rt 7900)
Gordon Blvd (Rt 123)
Garrisonville Rd (Rt 610)
Mountain View Rd (Rt 627)
$5.13
$0.83
$1.37
$2.00
$0.93
$1.34
$0.43
$5.82
$2.73
$2.01
$0.92
$1.35
$0.43
$0.83
$1.37
$2.01
$0.92
$1.35
$6.08
$6.88
$8.12
$4.74
$1.10
$1.59
$4.60
$8.87
$14.57
$21.41
$1.09
$1.60
$0.51
$0.99
$1.62
$2.38
$1.09
$1.60
Eads Street/Pentagon
Seminary Rd (Rt 420)
Franconia-Springfield Pkwy (Rt 7900)
Gordon Blvd (Rt 123)
Garrisonville Rd (Rt 610)
Mountain View Rd (Rt 627)
8,951
7,898
10,053
6,308
6,315
5,321
8,281
8,800
11,165
9,366
6,575
3,516
5,494
5,549
6,263
4,320
3,598
2,249
7,447
6,305
9,391
7,470
8,305
7,306
6,967
8,088
6,561
4,837
5,641
3,763
5,939
6,300
7,722
5,645
4,924
3,021
Eads Street/Pentagon
Seminary Rd (Rt 420)
Franconia-Springfield Pkwy (Rt 7900)
Gordon Blvd (Rt 123)
Garrisonville Rd (Rt 610)
Mountain View Rd (Rt 627)
14,239
13,102
14,422
8,343
7,360
5,844
12,832
13,322
15,132
11,528
7,853
3,881
6,376
6,606
7,527
5,339
4,444
2,795
13,395
12,297
14,559
9,974
9,616
7,948
12,118
13,240
11,193
7,472
7,254
4,203
6,919
7,490
9,203
6,870
5,941
3,647
Eads Street/Pentagon
Seminary Rd (Rt 420)
Franconia-Springfield Pkwy (Rt 7900)
Gordon Blvd (Rt 123)
Garrisonville Rd (Rt 610)
Mountain View Rd (Rt 627)
96.1%
88.1%
83.9%
66.8%
61.3%
50.6%
88.4%
89.3%
85.7%
83.8%
65.9%
33.6%
43.9%
44.3%
42.7%
38.8%
37.3%
24.2%
90.4%
82.6%
84.7%
79.9%
80.1%
68.9%
83.4%
88.7%
63.4%
54.3%
60.8%
36.4%
47.6%
50.2%
52.1%
49.9%
49.8%
31.6%
45.8
54.5
56.3
62.7
64.3
64.4
52.8
55.4
55.0
56.5
64.1
65.0
63.4
63.8
63.8
64.0
64.7
65.0
49.9
58.0
56.3
57.3
60.9
61.3
55.2
55.6
63.6
64.3
64.5
65.1
62.1
62.3
59.7
59.9
62.6
64.7
20,134
18,523
18,290
13,177
11,736
10,295
18,721
21,058
19,824
14,499
10,808
13,340
8,594
9,657
9,877
8,645
7,600
7,184
21,570
20,881
23,550
16,352
14,899
13,421
20,156
22,170
25,035
18,520
15,143
17,726
8,781
10,043
10,709
9,319
8,610
8,711
TOTAL TOLLS FOR SEGMENT
HOT PAY TRAFFIC
HOT ALL TRAFFIC
HOT LANE USAGE (V/C)
HOT LANE SPEED (mph) - segment average
Eads Street/Pentagon
Seminary Rd (Rt 420)
Franconia-Springfield Pkwy (Rt 7900)
Gordon Blvd (Rt 123)
Garrisonville Rd (Rt 610)
Mountain View Rd (Rt 627)
GP TRAFFIC (in direction of operating HOT lanes only)
Eads Street/Pentagon
Seminary Rd (Rt 420)
Franconia-Springfield Pkwy (Rt 7900)
Gordon Blvd (Rt 123)
Garrisonville Rd (Rt 610)
Mountain View Rd (Rt 627)
111
I-95/I-395 HOT Lane
Appendix E
Cumulative Travel Times – 45mph throughput
2015 AM Peak (northbound)
2030 AM Peak (northbound)
140
140
GP Lanes
GP Lanes
HOT Lanes
HOT Lanes
120
Cumulative Journey Times (mins)
Cumulative Journey Times (mins)
120
100
80
60
40
20
100
80
60
40
20
0
0
26 25 24 23 22 21 20 19 18 17 16 15 14 13 12 11 10
9
8
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
26 25 24 23 22 21 20 19 18 17 16 15 14 13 12 11 10
Location (not to scale)
2015 PM Peak (southbound)
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
160
GP Lanes
HOT Lanes
GP Lanes
HOT Lanes
140
Cumulative Journey Times (mins)
120
Cumulative Journey Times (mins)
8
2030 PM Peak (southbound)
140
100
80
60
40
20
120
100
80
60
40
20
0
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
Location (not to scale)
10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26
Location (not to scale)
2015 Off-Peak (southbound)
2030 Off-Peak (southbound)
140
140
GP Lanes
HOT Lanes
GP Lanes
HOT Lanes
120
Cumulative Journey Times (mins)
120
Cumulative Journey Times (mins)
9
Location (not to scale)
100
80
60
40
20
100
80
60
40
20
0
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26
1
Location (not to scale)
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26
Location (not to scale)
Note: Locations are segment numbers as in Figure 8.1
112
I-95/I-395 HOT Lane
Appendix E
Revenue Stream – 65mph throughput – ALL
Year
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
2030
2031
2032
2033
2034
2035
2036
2037
2038
2039
2040
2041
2042
2043
2044
2045
2046
2047
2048
2049
2050
2051
2052
2053
2054
2055
2056
2057
2058
2059
2060
2061
2062
2063
2064
2065
2066
2067
2068
2069
2070
2071
Total
Unramped
Revenue
2008 $M
71.5
73.1
74.8
90.9
93.5
96.1
98.7
101.3
103.9
106.5
109.2
111.8
114.4
117.0
119.6
122.2
124.8
127.4
130.0
131.4
132.6
133.9
135.1
136.4
137.7
139.0
140.4
141.7
143.0
144.4
145.8
147.2
148.6
150.0
151.4
152.8
154.3
155.7
157.2
158.7
160.2
161.7
163.3
164.8
166.4
168.0
169.6
171.2
172.8
174.5
176.1
177.8
179.5
181.2
182.9
184.7
186.4
188.1
189.9
191.7
8,534.7
HOT Traffic
Growth
post 2030 pa
1.4%
1.4%
1.3%
1.3%
1.3%
1.3%
1.3%
1.3%
1.2%
1.2%
1.2%
1.2%
1.2%
1.2%
1.2%
1.1%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
Discounted
& Ramped
Revenue
2008 $M
30.4
40.4
44.6
49.0
46.7
44.3
41.7
39.3
37.0
34.8
32.7
30.7
28.8
27.0
25.3
23.8
22.3
20.9
19.5
18.1
16.8
15.5
14.4
13.3
12.3
11.4
10.6
9.8
9.1
8.4
7.8
7.2
6.7
6.2
5.7
5.3
4.9
4.5
4.2
3.9
3.6
3.3
3.1
2.9
2.7
2.5
2.3
2.1
2.0
1.8
1.7
1.6
1.4
1.3
1.2
1.1
1.1
1.0
0.9
0.8
873.5
Throughput @ 65mph, 6 segments
Key assumptions
- Growth from 2015 to 2030 interpolated from model-year results
- Growth rate beyond 2030 assumed decreasing 0.1% per annum to 1%
- Revenue growth is capped by capacity of individual HOT lane sections
- Ramp-up of revenue assumed:
60% year 1
85% year 2
100% year 3 onwards
Adjusted for Southern Section:
86% year 1
95% year 2
100% year 3 onwards
- Model revenue 2005 prices increased to 2008 prices using CPI-U
194.4 : 2005 Jan-Sep
216.0 : 2008 Jan-Sep
11.1% : 2005 Jan-Sep to 2008 Jan-Sep
- Discount rate to 2008 prices :
9%
- 2015 & 2030 Value of Time escalation based on growth in GDP
0.75 x forecast increase in GDP per capita:
1.0952 : 2005 to 2015
1.2989 : 2005 to 2030
113
I-95/I-395 HOT Lane
Appendix E
Revenue Stream – 65mph throughput – NORTHERN SECTION
Year
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
2030
2031
2032
2033
2034
2035
2036
2037
2038
2039
2040
2041
2042
2043
2044
2045
2046
2047
2048
2049
2050
2051
2052
2053
2054
2055
2056
2057
2058
2059
2060
2061
2062
2063
2064
2065
2066
2067
2068
2069
2070
2071
Total
Unramped
Revenue
2008 $M
71.5
73.1
74.8
81.4
83.1
84.9
86.7
88.5
90.2
92.0
93.8
95.6
97.3
99.1
100.9
102.7
104.4
106.2
108.0
109.1
110.2
111.2
112.3
113.3
114.4
115.5
116.6
117.7
118.8
119.9
121.1
122.2
123.4
124.6
125.7
126.9
128.1
129.4
130.6
131.8
133.1
134.4
135.6
136.9
138.2
139.5
140.9
142.2
143.6
144.9
146.3
147.7
149.1
150.5
151.9
153.4
154.8
156.3
157.8
159.3
7,173.2
HOT Traffic
Growth
post 2030 pa
1.4%
1.4%
1.3%
1.3%
1.3%
1.3%
1.3%
1.3%
1.2%
1.2%
1.2%
1.2%
1.2%
1.2%
1.2%
1.1%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
Discounted
& Ramped
Revenue
2008 $M
30.4
40.4
44.6
44.5
41.7
39.1
36.6
34.3
32.1
30.0
28.1
26.2
24.5
22.9
21.4
20.0
18.6
17.4
16.2
15.0
13.9
12.9
11.9
11.1
10.2
9.5
8.8
8.1
7.5
7.0
6.5
6.0
5.5
5.1
4.8
4.4
4.1
3.8
3.5
3.2
3.0
2.8
2.6
2.4
2.2
2.0
1.9
1.8
1.6
1.5
1.4
1.3
1.2
1.1
1.0
0.9
0.9
0.8
0.8
0.7
763.8
Throughput @ 65mph, 6 segments
Key assumptions
- Growth from 2015 to 2030 interpolated from model-year results
- Growth rate beyond 2030 assumed decreasing 0.1% per annum to 1%
- Revenue growth is capped by capacity of individual HOT lane sections
- Ramp-up of revenue assumed:
60% year 1
85% year 2
100% year 3 onwards
Adjusted for Southern Section:
86% year 1
95% year 2
100% year 3 onwards
- Model revenue 2005 prices increased to 2008 prices using CPI-U
194.4 : 2005 Jan-Sep
216.0 : 2008 Jan-Sep
11.1% : 2005 Jan-Sep to 2008 Jan-Sep
- Discount rate to 2008 prices :
9%
- 2015 & 2030 Value of Time escalation based on growth in GDP
0.75 x forecast increase in GDP per capita:
1.0952 : 2005 to 2015
1.2989 : 2005 to 2030
114
I-95/I-395 HOT Lane
Appendix E
Revenue Stream – 65mph throughput – SOUTHERN SECTION
Year
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
2030
2031
2032
2033
2034
2035
2036
2037
2038
2039
2040
2041
2042
2043
2044
2045
2046
2047
2048
2049
2050
2051
2052
2053
2054
2055
2056
2057
2058
2059
2060
2061
2062
2063
2064
2065
2066
2067
2068
2069
2070
2071
Total
Unramped
Revenue
2008 $M
9.6
10.4
11.2
12.1
12.9
13.7
14.5
15.4
16.2
17.0
17.9
18.7
19.5
20.4
21.2
22.0
22.2
22.5
22.7
22.9
23.1
23.3
23.5
23.8
24.0
24.2
24.5
24.7
24.9
25.2
25.4
25.6
25.9
26.1
26.4
26.6
26.9
27.1
27.4
27.7
27.9
28.2
28.5
28.7
29.0
29.3
29.5
29.8
30.1
30.4
30.7
31.0
31.3
31.5
31.8
32.1
32.4
1,361.5
HOT Traffic
Growth
post 2030 pa
1.4%
1.4%
1.3%
1.3%
1.3%
1.3%
1.3%
1.3%
1.2%
1.2%
1.2%
1.2%
1.2%
1.2%
1.2%
1.1%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
Discounted
& Ramped
Revenue
2008 $M
4.5
4.9
5.2
5.1
5.0
4.9
4.7
4.6
4.4
4.3
4.1
4.0
3.8
3.6
3.5
3.3
3.1
2.8
2.6
2.4
2.3
2.1
1.9
1.8
1.7
1.5
1.4
1.3
1.2
1.1
1.0
1.0
0.9
0.8
0.8
0.7
0.7
0.6
0.6
0.5
0.5
0.5
0.4
0.4
0.4
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.1
109.7
Throughput @ 65mph, 6 segments
Key assumptions
- Growth from 2015 to 2030 interpolated from model-year results
- Growth rate beyond 2030 assumed decreasing 0.1% per annum to 1%
- Revenue growth is capped by capacity of individual HOT lane sections
- Ramp-up of revenue assumed:
60% year 1
85% year 2
100% year 3 onwards
Adjusted for Southern Section:
86% year 1
95% year 2
100% year 3 onwards
- Model revenue 2005 prices increased to 2008 prices using CPI-U
194.4 : 2005 Jan-Sep
216.0 : 2008 Jan-Sep
11.1% : 2005 Jan-Sep to 2008 Jan-Sep
- Discount rate to 2008 prices :
9%
- 2015 & 2030 Value of Time escalation based on growth in GDP
0.75 x forecast increase in GDP per capita:
1.0952 : 2005 to 2015
1.2989 : 2005 to 2030
115
I-95/I-395 HOT Lane
Appendix E
Segment Summary – 65mph throughput
All prices in 2008 $
All traffic flows weighted averages
Northern Section
Southern Section
AM
2015
PM
OP
AM
2030
PM
OP
TOLL RATES
A
B
C
D
E
F
Seminary Rd (Rt 420)
Franconia-Springfield Pkwy (Rt 7900)
Gordon Blvd (Rt 123)
Garrisonville Rd (Rt 610)
Mountain View Rd (Rt 627)
Massaponax
A
B
C
D
E
F
Seminary Rd (Rt 420)
Franconia-Springfield Pkwy (Rt 7900)
Gordon Blvd (Rt 123)
Garrisonville Rd (Rt 610)
Mountain View Rd (Rt 627)
Massaponax
A
B
C
D
E
F
Seminary Rd (Rt 420)
Franconia-Springfield Pkwy (Rt 7900)
Gordon Blvd (Rt 123)
Garrisonville Rd (Rt 610)
Mountain View Rd (Rt 627)
Massaponax
A
B
C
D
E
F
Seminary Rd (Rt 420)
Franconia-Springfield Pkwy (Rt 7900)
Gordon Blvd (Rt 123)
Garrisonville Rd (Rt 610)
Mountain View Rd (Rt 627)
Massaponax
A
B
C
D
E
F
Seminary Rd (Rt 420)
Franconia-Springfield Pkwy (Rt 7900)
Gordon Blvd (Rt 123)
Garrisonville Rd (Rt 610)
Mountain View Rd (Rt 627)
Massaponax
A
B
C
D
E
F
Seminary Rd (Rt 420)
Franconia-Springfield Pkwy (Rt 7900)
Gordon Blvd (Rt 123)
Garrisonville Rd (Rt 610)
Mountain View Rd (Rt 627)
Massaponax
A
B
C
D
E
F
Seminary Rd (Rt 420)
Franconia-Springfield Pkwy (Rt 7900)
Gordon Blvd (Rt 123)
Garrisonville Rd (Rt 610)
Mountain View Rd (Rt 627)
Massaponax
Eads Street/Pentagon
Seminary Rd (Rt 420)
Franconia-Springfield Pkwy (Rt 7900)
Gordon Blvd (Rt 123)
Garrisonville Rd (Rt 610)
Mountain View Rd (Rt 627)
$2.92
$1.46
$0.61
$0.61
$0.24
$0.37
$1.84
$1.71
$1.34
$1.22
$0.24
$0.12
$0.37
$0.24
$0.36
$0.37
$0.12
$0.12
$3.90
$3.03
$1.59
$1.59
$0.43
$1.30
$3.35
$3.33
$2.73
$2.90
$0.57
$0.29
$0.58
$0.43
$0.58
$0.72
$0.43
$0.29
Eads Street/Pentagon
Seminary Rd (Rt 420)
Franconia-Springfield Pkwy (Rt 7900)
Gordon Blvd (Rt 123)
Garrisonville Rd (Rt 610)
Mountain View Rd (Rt 627)
$10.25
$9.94
$6.85
$9.99
$1.85
$4.03
$6.46
$11.64
$15.02
$20.05
$1.84
$1.35
$1.29
$1.66
$4.10
$6.02
$0.92
$1.35
$13.68
$20.64
$17.86
$26.07
$3.30
$14.35
$11.75
$22.67
$30.77
$47.57
$4.37
$3.19
$2.04
$2.96
$6.48
$11.89
$3.28
$3.19
Eads Street/Pentagon
Seminary Rd (Rt 420)
Franconia-Springfield Pkwy (Rt 7900)
Gordon Blvd (Rt 123)
Garrisonville Rd (Rt 610)
Mountain View Rd (Rt 627)
2,213
1,608
3,385
1,927
2,675
3,027
2,509
2,447
1,703
1,292
2,223
1,477
4,235
3,981
3,792
2,387
2,388
1,401
1,347
865
1,514
1,137
1,802
2,404
1,436
1,525
879
690
2,104
1,925
3,982
3,754
3,636
1,939
1,953
1,180
Eads Street/Pentagon
Seminary Rd (Rt 420)
Franconia-Springfield Pkwy (Rt 7900)
Gordon Blvd (Rt 123)
Garrisonville Rd (Rt 610)
Mountain View Rd (Rt 627)
7,501
6,812
7,754
3,962
3,721
3,549
7,059
6,969
5,670
3,454
3,501
1,843
5,117
5,038
5,056
3,406
3,234
1,947
7,295
6,856
6,682
3,641
3,114
3,045
6,588
6,677
5,510
3,325
3,716
2,365
4,963
4,944
5,117
3,164
2,970
1,807
Eads Street/Pentagon
Seminary Rd (Rt 420)
Franconia-Springfield Pkwy (Rt 7900)
Gordon Blvd (Rt 123)
Garrisonville Rd (Rt 610)
Mountain View Rd (Rt 627)
50.6%
45.8%
45.1%
31.7%
31.0%
30.8%
48.6%
46.7%
32.1%
25.1%
29.4%
16.0%
35.2%
33.8%
28.6%
24.8%
27.1%
16.9%
49.2%
46.1%
38.9%
29.2%
25.9%
26.4%
45.4%
44.7%
31.2%
24.2%
31.2%
20.5%
34.2%
33.1%
29.0%
23.0%
24.9%
15.6%
64.4
64.9
64.9
65.0
65.0
64.9
65.0
64.9
65.0
64.9
65.1
65.1
65.0
64.8
65.0
64.9
65.1
65.1
64.2
64.9
65.0
65.0
65.0
64.9
65.2
64.9
65.0
64.9
65.1
65.1
65.0
64.8
65.0
64.9
65.1
65.1
20,966
19,931
21,809
15,627
14,502
12,162
20,020
22,479
23,273
17,402
13,839
14,979
9,130
10,454
11,811
9,941
8,628
7,924
22,283
21,448
25,727
18,574
18,751
16,948
20,963
23,193
26,059
19,265
17,335
18,829
9,607
11,338
13,383
10,858
10,827
10,045
TOTAL TOLLS FOR SEGMENT
HOT PAY TRAFFIC
HOT ALL TRAFFIC
HOT LANE USAGE (V/C)
HOT LANE SPEED (mph) - segment average
Eads Street/Pentagon
Seminary Rd (Rt 420)
Franconia-Springfield Pkwy (Rt 7900)
Gordon Blvd (Rt 123)
Garrisonville Rd (Rt 610)
Mountain View Rd (Rt 627)
GP TRAFFIC (in direction of operating HOT lanes only)
Eads Street/Pentagon
Seminary Rd (Rt 420)
Franconia-Springfield Pkwy (Rt 7900)
Gordon Blvd (Rt 123)
Garrisonville Rd (Rt 610)
Mountain View Rd (Rt 627)
116
I-95/I-395 HOT Lane
Appendix E
Cumulative Travel Times – 65mph throughput
2015 AM Peak (northbound)
2030 AM Peak (northbound)
140
140
GP Lanes
GP Lanes
HOT Lanes
HOT Lanes
120
Cumulative Journey Times (mins)
Cumulative Journey Times (mins)
120
100
80
60
40
20
100
80
60
40
20
0
0
26 25 24 23 22 21 20 19 18 17 16 15 14 13 12 11 10
9
8
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
26 25 24 23 22 21 20 19 18 17 16 15 14 13 12 11 10
Location (not to scale)
2015 PM Peak (southbound)
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
180
GP Lanes
HOT Lanes
GP Lanes
HOT Lanes
160
Cumulative Journey Times (mins)
120
Cumulative Journey Times (mins)
8
2030 PM Peak (southbound)
140
100
80
60
40
20
140
120
100
80
60
40
20
0
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
Location (not to scale)
10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26
Location (not to scale)
2015 Off-Peak (southbound)
2030 Off-Peak (southbound)
140
140
GP Lanes
HOT Lanes
GP Lanes
HOT Lanes
120
Cumulative Journey Times (mins)
120
Cumulative Journey Times (mins)
9
Location (not to scale)
100
80
60
40
20
100
80
60
40
20
0
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26
1
Location (not to scale)
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26
Location (not to scale)
Note: Locations are segment numbers as in Figure 8.1
117
I-95/I-395 HOT Lane
Appendix E
Revenue Stream – Revenue Optimal Toll Rates – ALL
Year
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
2030
2031
2032
2033
2034
2035
2036
2037
2038
2039
2040
2041
2042
2043
2044
2045
2046
2047
2048
2049
2050
2051
2052
2053
2054
2055
2056
2057
2058
2059
2060
2061
2062
2063
2064
2065
2066
2067
2068
2069
2070
2071
Total
Unramped
Revenue
2008 $M
69.3
75.2
81.1
105.7
112.7
119.6
126.6
133.6
140.6
147.6
154.6
161.6
168.6
175.6
182.6
189.5
196.5
203.5
210.5
216.0
221.3
226.3
231.3
235.9
240.2
244.5
248.3
252.0
255.3
258.4
261.4
264.2
266.8
269.0
271.1
273.0
274.7
276.5
278.3
280.0
281.8
283.6
285.3
287.0
288.6
290.3
292.0
293.7
295.4
297.1
298.9
300.6
302.4
304.2
306.1
307.7
309.4
311.1
312.8
314.4
14,062.0
HOT Traffic
Growth
post 2030 pa
4.5%
4.3%
4.2%
4.0%
3.8%
3.7%
3.6%
3.4%
3.3%
3.2%
3.1%
3.0%
2.9%
2.9%
2.8%
2.7%
2.6%
2.5%
2.4%
2.3%
2.2%
2.1%
2.0%
1.9%
1.8%
1.7%
1.6%
1.5%
1.4%
1.3%
1.2%
1.1%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
Discounted
& Ramped
Revenue
2008 $M
29.4
41.5
48.4
56.7
56.1
55.1
53.5
51.8
50.0
48.1
46.3
44.4
42.5
40.6
38.7
36.9
35.1
33.3
31.6
29.8
28.0
26.2
24.6
23.0
21.5
20.1
18.7
17.4
16.2
15.0
14.0
12.9
12.0
11.1
10.3
9.5
8.7
8.1
7.5
6.9
6.4
5.9
5.4
5.0
4.6
4.3
3.9
3.6
3.3
3.1
2.8
2.6
2.4
2.2
2.1
1.9
1.8
1.6
1.5
1.4
1,247.2
Revenue optimised, 6 segments
Key assumptions
- Growth from 2015 to 2030 interpolated from model-year results
- Growth rate beyond 2030 assumed decreasing 0.1% per annum to 1%
- Revenue growth is capped by capacity of individual HOT lane sections
- Ramp-up of revenue assumed:
60% year 1
85% year 2
100% year 3 onwards
Adjusted for Southern Section:
86% year 1
95% year 2
100% year 3 onwards
- Model revenue 2005 prices increased to 2008 prices using CPI-U
194.4 : 2005 Jan-Sep
216.0 : 2008 Jan-Sep
11.1% : 2005 Jan-Sep to 2008 Jan-Sep
- Discount rate to 2008 prices :
9%
- 2015 & 2030 Value of Time escalation based on growth in GDP
0.75 x forecast increase in GDP per capita:
1.0952 : 2005 to 2015
1.2989 : 2005 to 2030
118
I-95/I-395 HOT Lane
Appendix E
Revenue Stream – Revenue Optimal Toll Rates – NORTHERN SECTION
Year
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
2030
2031
2032
2033
2034
2035
2036
2037
2038
2039
2040
2041
2042
2043
2044
2045
2046
2047
2048
2049
2050
2051
2052
2053
2054
2055
2056
2057
2058
2059
2060
2061
2062
2063
2064
2065
2066
2067
2068
2069
2070
2071
Total
Unramped
Revenue
2008 $M
69.3
75.2
81.1
90.5
96.6
102.8
109.0
115.1
121.3
127.4
133.6
139.8
145.9
152.1
158.3
164.4
170.6
176.7
182.9
187.7
192.2
196.5
200.7
204.7
208.4
212.0
215.2
218.3
221.0
223.6
226.1
228.4
230.5
232.3
233.9
235.5
236.8
238.2
239.6
241.0
242.5
243.9
245.2
246.5
247.8
249.1
250.5
251.8
253.1
254.5
255.8
257.2
258.6
260.0
261.5
262.7
264.0
265.3
266.5
267.8
12,139.8
HOT Traffic
Growth
post 2030 pa
4.5%
4.3%
4.2%
4.0%
3.8%
3.7%
3.6%
3.4%
3.3%
3.2%
3.1%
3.0%
2.9%
2.9%
2.8%
2.7%
2.6%
2.5%
2.4%
2.3%
2.2%
2.1%
2.0%
1.9%
1.8%
1.7%
1.6%
1.5%
1.4%
1.3%
1.2%
1.1%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
Discounted
& Ramped
Revenue
2008 $M
29.4
41.5
48.4
49.5
48.5
47.3
46.0
44.6
43.1
41.6
40.0
38.4
36.8
35.1
33.5
32.0
30.4
28.9
27.5
25.9
24.3
22.8
21.4
20.0
18.7
17.4
16.2
15.1
14.0
13.0
12.1
11.2
10.4
9.6
8.8
8.2
7.5
7.0
6.4
5.9
5.5
5.0
4.7
4.3
4.0
3.7
3.4
3.1
2.9
2.6
2.4
2.2
2.1
1.9
1.8
1.6
1.5
1.4
1.3
1.2
1,094.8
Revenue optimised, 6 segments
Key assumptions
- Growth from 2015 to 2030 interpolated from model-year results
- Growth rate beyond 2030 assumed decreasing 0.1% per annum to 1%
- Revenue growth is capped by capacity of individual HOT lane sections
- Ramp-up of revenue assumed:
60% year 1
85% year 2
100% year 3 onwards
Adjusted for Southern Section:
86% year 1
95% year 2
100% year 3 onwards
- Model revenue 2005 prices increased to 2008 prices using CPI-U
194.4 : 2005 Jan-Sep
216.0 : 2008 Jan-Sep
11.1% : 2005 Jan-Sep to 2008 Jan-Sep
- Discount rate to 2008 prices :
9%
- 2015 & 2030 Value of Time escalation based on growth in GDP
0.75 x forecast increase in GDP per capita:
1.0952 : 2005 to 2015
1.2989 : 2005 to 2030
119
I-95/I-395 HOT Lane
Appendix E
Revenue Stream – Revenue Optimal Toll Rates – SOUTHERN SECTION
Year
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
2030
2031
2032
2033
2034
2035
2036
2037
2038
2039
2040
2041
2042
2043
2044
2045
2046
2047
2048
2049
2050
2051
2052
2053
2054
2055
2056
2057
2058
2059
2060
2061
2062
2063
2064
2065
2066
2067
2068
2069
2070
2071
Total
Unramped
Revenue
2008 $M
15.2
16.0
16.9
17.7
18.5
19.3
20.2
21.0
21.8
22.6
23.5
24.3
25.1
26.0
26.8
27.6
28.4
29.1
29.8
30.5
31.2
31.8
32.5
33.1
33.7
34.2
34.8
35.3
35.8
36.3
36.7
37.2
37.6
37.9
38.3
38.6
39.0
39.4
39.7
40.1
40.4
40.8
41.2
41.5
41.9
42.3
42.6
43.0
43.4
43.8
44.2
44.6
45.0
45.4
45.8
46.2
46.6
1,922.2
HOT Traffic
Growth
post 2030 pa
4.5%
4.3%
4.2%
4.0%
3.8%
3.7%
3.6%
3.4%
3.3%
3.2%
3.1%
3.0%
2.9%
2.9%
2.8%
2.7%
2.6%
2.5%
2.4%
2.3%
2.2%
2.1%
2.0%
1.9%
1.8%
1.7%
1.6%
1.5%
1.4%
1.3%
1.2%
1.1%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
Discounted
& Ramped
Revenue
2008 $M
7.2
7.6
7.8
7.5
7.2
6.9
6.6
6.3
6.0
5.7
5.4
5.2
4.9
4.6
4.4
4.1
3.9
3.7
3.5
3.2
3.0
2.8
2.7
2.5
2.3
2.2
2.0
1.9
1.8
1.6
1.5
1.4
1.3
1.2
1.1
1.0
1.0
0.9
0.8
0.8
0.7
0.7
0.6
0.6
0.5
0.5
0.4
0.4
0.4
0.4
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.2
0.2
0.2
152.3
Revenue optimised, 6 segments
Key assumptions
- Growth from 2015 to 2030 interpolated from model-year results
- Growth rate beyond 2030 assumed decreasing 0.1% per annum to 1%
- Revenue growth is capped by capacity of individual HOT lane sections
- Ramp-up of revenue assumed:
60% year 1
85% year 2
100% year 3 onwards
Adjusted for Southern Section:
86% year 1
95% year 2
100% year 3 onwards
- Model revenue 2005 prices increased to 2008 prices using CPI-U
194.4 : 2005 Jan-Sep
216.0 : 2008 Jan-Sep
11.1% : 2005 Jan-Sep to 2008 Jan-Sep
- Discount rate to 2008 prices :
9%
- 2015 & 2030 Value of Time escalation based on growth in GDP
0.75 x forecast increase in GDP per capita:
1.0952 : 2005 to 2015
1.2989 : 2005 to 2030
120
I-95/I-395 HOT Lane
Appendix E
Segment Summary – Revenue Optimal Toll Rates
All prices in 2008 $
All traffic flows weighted averages
Northern Section
Southern Section
AM
2015
PM
OP
AM
2030
PM
OP
TOLL RATES
A
B
C
D
E
F
Seminary Rd (Rt 420)
Franconia-Springfield Pkwy (Rt 7900)
Gordon Blvd (Rt 123)
Garrisonville Rd (Rt 610)
Mountain View Rd (Rt 627)
Massaponax
A
B
C
D
E
F
Seminary Rd (Rt 420)
Franconia-Springfield Pkwy (Rt 7900)
Gordon Blvd (Rt 123)
Garrisonville Rd (Rt 610)
Mountain View Rd (Rt 627)
Massaponax
A
B
C
D
E
F
Seminary Rd (Rt 420)
Franconia-Springfield Pkwy (Rt 7900)
Gordon Blvd (Rt 123)
Garrisonville Rd (Rt 610)
Mountain View Rd (Rt 627)
Massaponax
A
B
C
D
E
F
Seminary Rd (Rt 420)
Franconia-Springfield Pkwy (Rt 7900)
Gordon Blvd (Rt 123)
Garrisonville Rd (Rt 610)
Mountain View Rd (Rt 627)
Massaponax
A
B
C
D
E
F
Seminary Rd (Rt 420)
Franconia-Springfield Pkwy (Rt 7900)
Gordon Blvd (Rt 123)
Garrisonville Rd (Rt 610)
Mountain View Rd (Rt 627)
Massaponax
A
B
C
D
E
F
Seminary Rd (Rt 420)
Franconia-Springfield Pkwy (Rt 7900)
Gordon Blvd (Rt 123)
Garrisonville Rd (Rt 610)
Mountain View Rd (Rt 627)
Massaponax
A
B
C
D
E
F
Seminary Rd (Rt 420)
Franconia-Springfield Pkwy (Rt 7900)
Gordon Blvd (Rt 123)
Garrisonville Rd (Rt 610)
Mountain View Rd (Rt 627)
Massaponax
Eads Street/Pentagon
Seminary Rd (Rt 420)
Franconia-Springfield Pkwy (Rt 7900)
Gordon Blvd (Rt 123)
Garrisonville Rd (Rt 610)
Mountain View Rd (Rt 627)
$1.28
$1.10
$0.43
$0.30
$0.18
$0.49
$0.77
$0.85
$0.55
$0.55
$0.18
$0.49
$0.49
$0.49
$0.30
$0.24
$0.18
$0.24
$1.62
$1.19
$0.65
$0.65
$0.22
$0.58
$1.20
$1.30
$0.87
$1.01
$0.22
$0.58
$0.59
$0.58
$0.43
$0.43
$0.22
$0.29
Eads Street/Pentagon
Seminary Rd (Rt 420)
Franconia-Springfield Pkwy (Rt 7900)
Gordon Blvd (Rt 123)
Garrisonville Rd (Rt 610)
Mountain View Rd (Rt 627)
$4.49
$7.49
$4.83
$4.94
$1.37
$5.42
$2.69
$5.80
$6.17
$9.06
$1.36
$5.42
$1.74
$3.35
$3.37
$3.95
$1.36
$2.65
$5.68
$8.11
$7.31
$10.66
$1.67
$6.41
$4.22
$8.88
$9.76
$16.65
$1.66
$6.42
$2.05
$3.96
$4.83
$7.09
$1.66
$3.21
Eads Street/Pentagon
Seminary Rd (Rt 420)
Franconia-Springfield Pkwy (Rt 7900)
Gordon Blvd (Rt 123)
Garrisonville Rd (Rt 610)
Mountain View Rd (Rt 627)
6,462
3,759
5,456
3,506
3,689
3,179
6,449
7,021
6,791
4,426
3,240
1,599
3,538
3,323
4,049
2,715
2,382
1,325
7,332
5,759
8,341
5,229
5,471
5,070
7,233
8,669
9,518
6,736
5,575
3,200
3,983
3,870
4,778
3,228
3,126
1,788
Eads Street/Pentagon
Seminary Rd (Rt 420)
Franconia-Springfield Pkwy (Rt 7900)
Gordon Blvd (Rt 123)
Garrisonville Rd (Rt 610)
Mountain View Rd (Rt 627)
11,750
8,963
9,825
5,541
4,735
3,702
10,999
11,543
10,758
6,588
4,518
1,965
4,420
4,380
5,313
3,734
3,228
1,871
13,280
11,751
13,509
7,733
6,782
5,711
12,385
13,822
14,149
9,371
7,187
3,640
4,963
5,060
6,260
4,454
4,144
2,415
Eads Street/Pentagon
Seminary Rd (Rt 420)
Franconia-Springfield Pkwy (Rt 7900)
Gordon Blvd (Rt 123)
Garrisonville Rd (Rt 610)
Mountain View Rd (Rt 627)
79.3%
60.2%
57.1%
44.4%
39.5%
32.1%
75.7%
77.3%
61.0%
47.9%
37.9%
17.0%
30.4%
29.3%
30.1%
27.1%
27.1%
16.2%
89.6%
79.0%
78.6%
61.9%
56.5%
49.5%
85.3%
92.6%
80.2%
68.1%
60.3%
31.5%
34.2%
33.9%
35.5%
32.4%
34.8%
20.9%
57.5
63.7
64.4
64.8
65.0
64.9
59.8
61.1
63.9
64.7
65.1
65.1
65.4
64.9
64.8
64.9
65.1
65.1
50.9
59.4
59.6
63.7
64.7
64.5
53.6
53.0
58.2
62.3
64.6
65.1
65.2
64.7
64.7
64.7
65.0
65.1
20,461
19,687
20,845
14,933
13,866
12,090
19,302
21,373
21,368
16,314
13,242
14,859
9,422
10,772
11,648
9,757
8,654
8,001
21,542
20,912
23,751
17,089
16,919
15,281
20,139
22,029
24,085
17,716
15,336
18,052
9,636
11,293
12,706
10,448
10,046
9,626
TOTAL TOLLS FOR SEGMENT
HOT PAY TRAFFIC
HOT ALL TRAFFIC
HOT LANE USAGE (V/C)
HOT LANE SPEED (mph) - segment average
Eads Street/Pentagon
Seminary Rd (Rt 420)
Franconia-Springfield Pkwy (Rt 7900)
Gordon Blvd (Rt 123)
Garrisonville Rd (Rt 610)
Mountain View Rd (Rt 627)
GP TRAFFIC (in direction of operating HOT lanes only)
Eads Street/Pentagon
Seminary Rd (Rt 420)
Franconia-Springfield Pkwy (Rt 7900)
Gordon Blvd (Rt 123)
Garrisonville Rd (Rt 610)
Mountain View Rd (Rt 627)
121
I-95/I-395 HOT Lane
Appendix E
Cumulative Travel Times – Revenue Optimal Toll Rates
2015 AM Peak (northbound)
2030 AM Peak (northbound)
140
140
GP Lanes
GP Lanes
HOT Lanes
HOT Lanes
120
Cumulative Journey Times (mins)
Cumulative Journey Times (mins)
120
100
80
60
40
20
100
80
60
40
20
0
0
26 25 24 23 22 21 20 19 18 17 16 15 14 13 12 11 10
9
8
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
26 25 24 23 22 21 20 19 18 17 16 15 14 13 12 11 10
Location (not to scale)
2015 PM Peak (southbound)
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
160
GP Lanes
HOT Lanes
GP Lanes
HOT Lanes
140
Cumulative Journey Times (mins)
120
Cumulative Journey Times (mins)
8
2030 PM Peak (southbound)
140
100
80
60
40
20
120
100
80
60
40
20
0
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
Location (not to scale)
10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26
Location (not to scale)
2015 Off-Peak (southbound)
2030 Off-Peak (southbound)
140
140
GP Lanes
HOT Lanes
GP Lanes
HOT Lanes
120
Cumulative Journey Times (mins)
120
Cumulative Journey Times (mins)
9
Location (not to scale)
100
80
60
40
20
100
80
60
40
20
0
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26
1
Location (not to scale)
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26
Location (not to scale)
Note: Locations are segment numbers as in Figure 8.1
122
I-95/I-395 HOT Lane
Appendix E
Transactions – Revenue Optimal Toll Rates
Year
Annual Unramped Transaction (000's)
Segment A
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
2030
2031
2032
2033
2034
2035
2036
2037
2038
2039
2040
2041
2042
2043
2044
2045
2046
2047
2048
2049
2050
2051
2052
2053
2054
2055
2056
2057
2058
2059
2060
2061
2062
2063
2064
2065
2066
2067
2068
2069
2070
2071
15,710
15,790
15,870
15,870
15,950
16,040
16,120
16,200
16,290
16,370
16,450
16,540
16,620
16,700
16,790
16,870
16,950
17,040
17,120
17,570
18,000
18,410
18,810
19,190
19,540
19,890
20,200
20,500
20,770
21,030
21,270
21,500
21,710
21,890
22,060
22,210
22,350
22,490
22,630
22,780
22,930
23,070
23,210
23,350
23,480
23,620
23,760
23,900
24,040
24,180
24,320
24,460
24,610
24,760
24,910
25,050
25,190
25,330
25,470
25,600
Segment B Segment C Segment D
13,860
13,990
14,120
14,080
14,210
14,340
14,480
14,610
14,740
14,870
15,000
15,140
15,270
15,400
15,530
15,660
15,800
15,930
16,060
16,480
16,880
17,260
17,640
17,990
18,320
18,640
18,930
19,210
19,460
19,700
19,930
20,140
20,340
20,510
20,670
20,810
20,940
21,070
21,200
21,340
21,480
21,610
21,740
21,870
22,000
22,130
22,260
22,390
22,520
22,650
22,780
22,910
23,050
23,190
23,330
23,460
23,590
23,720
23,850
23,980
10,630
10,770
10,910
10,900
11,040
11,180
11,330
11,470
11,610
11,750
11,890
12,040
12,180
12,320
12,460
12,600
12,750
12,890
13,030
13,370
13,700
14,010
14,320
14,610
14,880
15,140
15,380
15,610
15,810
16,000
16,190
16,360
16,520
16,660
16,790
16,910
17,020
17,130
17,240
17,350
17,460
17,570
17,680
17,780
17,880
17,980
18,080
18,190
18,300
18,410
18,520
18,630
18,740
18,850
18,960
19,060
19,160
19,260
19,360
19,460
15,770
15,970
16,170
15,280
15,470
15,660
15,840
16,030
16,220
16,410
16,600
16,780
16,970
17,160
17,350
17,540
17,720
17,910
18,100
18,570
19,020
19,450
19,870
20,270
20,640
21,010
21,340
21,660
21,940
22,210
22,470
22,710
22,930
23,120
23,300
23,460
23,610
23,760
23,910
24,060
24,210
24,360
24,510
24,650
24,790
24,930
25,070
25,220
25,370
25,520
25,670
25,820
25,970
26,120
26,280
26,430
26,570
26,710
26,850
26,990
Segment E
Segment F
2,450
2,540
2,640
2,730
2,830
2,920
3,020
3,110
3,210
3,300
3,400
3,490
3,590
3,680
3,780
3,870
3,970
4,070
4,160
4,250
4,330
4,410
4,490
4,560
4,630
4,690
4,750
4,810
4,860
4,910
4,950
4,990
5,020
5,050
5,080
5,110
5,140
5,170
5,200
5,230
5,260
5,290
5,320
5,350
5,380
5,410
5,440
5,470
5,500
5,530
5,560
5,590
5,620
5,650
5,680
5,710
5,740
8,040
8,260
8,480
8,700
8,910
9,130
9,350
9,570
9,790
10,010
10,230
10,450
10,660
10,880
11,100
11,320
11,620
11,900
12,170
12,440
12,690
12,920
13,150
13,360
13,560
13,740
13,910
14,070
14,220
14,360
14,480
14,590
14,690
14,780
14,870
14,960
15,060
15,160
15,250
15,340
15,430
15,520
15,610
15,700
15,790
15,880
15,970
16,060
16,160
16,260
16,360
16,460
16,550
16,640
16,730
16,820
16,910
Total
55,970
56,520
57,070
66,620
67,470
68,340
69,200
70,050
70,910
71,770
72,620
73,500
74,350
75,210
76,070
76,920
77,780
78,650
79,500
81,580
83,570
85,460
87,330
89,080
90,710
92,320
93,770
95,170
96,410
97,600
98,740
99,790
100,770
101,610
102,400
103,100
103,750
104,400
105,050
105,730
106,410
107,060
107,710
108,340
108,960
109,590
110,220
110,870
111,520
112,170
112,820
113,480
114,160
114,840
115,530
116,170
116,800
117,430
118,060
118,680
Note: Transactions estimated from traffic entering and leaving the HOT lanes via entry/exit points
123
I-95/I-395 HOT Lane
Appendix E
Revenue Stream – Toll Schedule v1 – ALL
Year
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
2030
2031
2032
2033
2034
2035
2036
2037
2038
2039
2040
2041
2042
2043
2044
2045
2046
2047
2048
2049
2050
2051
2052
2053
2054
2055
2056
2057
2058
2059
2060
2061
2062
2063
2064
2065
2066
2067
2068
2069
2070
2071
Total
Unramped
Revenue
2008 $M
71.6
76.8
81.9
103.3
109.5
115.6
121.8
128.0
134.1
140.3
146.5
152.7
158.8
165.0
171.2
177.3
183.5
189.7
195.8
200.5
205.0
209.2
213.1
217.0
220.6
223.9
227.0
229.8
232.6
235.0
237.4
239.6
241.6
243.4
245.1
246.8
248.5
250.2
251.9
253.4
255.0
256.5
258.1
259.7
261.2
262.7
264.2
265.8
267.2
268.6
269.9
271.2
272.4
273.7
274.9
276.2
277.4
278.7
279.9
281.1
12,869.2
HOT Traffic
Growth
post 2030 pa
4.0%
3.8%
3.7%
3.6%
3.4%
3.3%
3.2%
3.1%
3.0%
2.9%
2.9%
2.8%
2.7%
2.6%
2.6%
2.5%
2.4%
2.3%
2.2%
2.1%
2.0%
1.9%
1.8%
1.7%
1.6%
1.5%
1.4%
1.3%
1.2%
1.1%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
Discounted
& Ramped
Revenue
2008 $M
30.4
42.4
48.8
55.5
54.6
53.2
51.5
49.6
47.7
45.8
43.8
41.9
40.0
38.1
36.3
34.5
32.7
31.0
29.4
27.6
25.9
24.3
22.7
21.2
19.8
18.4
17.1
15.9
14.8
13.7
12.7
11.7
10.9
10.0
9.3
8.6
7.9
7.3
6.7
6.2
5.8
5.3
4.9
4.5
4.2
3.9
3.6
3.3
3.0
2.8
2.6
2.4
2.2
2.0
1.9
1.7
1.6
1.5
1.3
1.2
1,179.4
Toll Schedule v1, 6 segments
Key assumptions
- Growth from 2015 to 2030 interpolated from model-year results
- Growth rate beyond 2030 assumed decreasing 0.1% per annum to 1%
- Revenue growth is capped by capacity of individual HOT lane sections
- Ramp-up of revenue assumed:
60% year 1
85% year 2
100% year 3 onwards
Adjusted for Southern Section:
86% year 1
95% year 2
100% year 3 onwards
- Model revenue 2005 prices increased to 2008 prices using CPI-U
194.4 : 2005 Jan-Sep
216.0 : 2008 Jan-Sep
11.1% : 2005 Jan-Sep to 2008 Jan-Sep
- Discount rate to 2008 prices :
9%
- 2015 & 2030 Value of Time escalation based on growth in GDP
0.75 x forecast increase in GDP per capita:
1.0952 : 2005 to 2015
1.2989 : 2005 to 2030
124
I-95/I-395 HOT Lane
Appendix E
Revenue Stream – Toll Schedule v1 – NORTHERN SECTION
Year
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
2030
2031
2032
2033
2034
2035
2036
2037
2038
2039
2040
2041
2042
2043
2044
2045
2046
2047
2048
2049
2050
2051
2052
2053
2054
2055
2056
2057
2058
2059
2060
2061
2062
2063
2064
2065
2066
2067
2068
2069
2070
2071
Total
Unramped
Revenue
2008 $M
71.6
76.8
81.9
89.5
94.8
100.1
105.4
110.7
116.0
121.2
126.5
131.8
137.1
142.4
147.7
153.0
158.2
163.5
168.8
172.8
176.6
180.3
183.6
186.9
190.0
192.7
195.3
197.7
199.9
202.0
203.9
205.7
207.4
208.9
210.3
211.7
213.1
214.5
215.9
217.2
218.4
219.6
220.9
222.1
223.3
224.6
225.7
226.9
228.1
229.2
230.2
231.2
232.2
233.1
234.1
235.0
236.0
237.0
238.0
238.9
11,068.0
HOT Traffic
Growth
post 2030 pa
4.0%
3.8%
3.7%
3.6%
3.4%
3.3%
3.2%
3.1%
3.0%
2.9%
2.9%
2.8%
2.7%
2.6%
2.6%
2.5%
2.4%
2.3%
2.2%
2.1%
2.0%
1.9%
1.8%
1.7%
1.6%
1.5%
1.4%
1.3%
1.2%
1.1%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
Discounted
& Ramped
Revenue
2008 $M
30.4
42.4
48.8
49.0
47.6
46.1
44.5
42.9
41.2
39.5
37.9
36.2
34.5
32.9
31.3
29.7
28.2
26.8
25.4
23.8
22.3
20.9
19.5
18.2
17.0
15.8
14.7
13.7
12.7
11.8
10.9
10.1
9.3
8.6
8.0
7.3
6.8
6.3
5.8
5.3
4.9
4.5
4.2
3.9
3.6
3.3
3.0
2.8
2.6
2.4
2.2
2.0
1.9
1.7
1.6
1.5
1.3
1.2
1.1
1.0
1,035.1
Toll Schedule v1, 6 segments
Key assumptions
- Growth from 2015 to 2030 interpolated from model-year results
- Growth rate beyond 2030 assumed decreasing 0.1% per annum to 1%
- Revenue growth is capped by capacity of individual HOT lane sections
- Ramp-up of revenue assumed:
60% year 1
85% year 2
100% year 3 onwards
Adjusted for Southern Section:
86% year 1
95% year 2
100% year 3 onwards
- Model revenue 2005 prices increased to 2008 prices using CPI-U
194.4 : 2005 Jan-Sep
216.0 : 2008 Jan-Sep
11.1% : 2005 Jan-Sep to 2008 Jan-Sep
- Discount rate to 2008 prices :
9%
- 2015 & 2030 Value of Time escalation based on growth in GDP
0.75 x forecast increase in GDP per capita:
1.0952 : 2005 to 2015
1.2989 : 2005 to 2030
125
I-95/I-395 HOT Lane
Appendix E
Revenue Stream – Toll Schedule v1 – SOUTHERN SECTION
Year
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
2030
2031
2032
2033
2034
2035
2036
2037
2038
2039
2040
2041
2042
2043
2044
2045
2046
2047
2048
2049
2050
2051
2052
2053
2054
2055
2056
2057
2058
2059
2060
2061
2062
2063
2064
2065
2066
2067
2068
2069
2070
2071
Total
Unramped
Revenue
2008 $M
13.8
14.6
15.5
16.4
17.3
18.2
19.1
19.9
20.8
21.7
22.6
23.5
24.4
25.3
26.1
27.0
27.7
28.3
28.9
29.5
30.1
30.6
31.2
31.7
32.2
32.6
33.0
33.4
33.8
34.2
34.5
34.8
35.1
35.4
35.7
36.0
36.3
36.6
36.9
37.2
37.5
37.8
38.2
38.5
38.8
39.2
39.5
39.7
40.0
40.3
40.6
40.8
41.1
41.4
41.7
42.0
42.3
1,801.2
HOT Traffic
Growth
post 2030 pa
4.0%
3.8%
3.7%
3.6%
3.4%
3.3%
3.2%
3.1%
3.0%
2.9%
2.9%
2.8%
2.7%
2.6%
2.6%
2.5%
2.4%
2.3%
2.2%
2.1%
2.0%
1.9%
1.8%
1.7%
1.6%
1.5%
1.4%
1.3%
1.2%
1.1%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
Discounted
& Ramped
Revenue
2008 $M
6.5
7.0
7.2
6.9
6.7
6.5
6.2
6.0
5.7
5.5
5.2
5.0
4.7
4.5
4.3
4.1
3.8
3.6
3.4
3.1
2.9
2.7
2.6
2.4
2.2
2.1
1.9
1.8
1.7
1.5
1.4
1.3
1.2
1.1
1.0
1.0
0.9
0.8
0.8
0.7
0.7
0.6
0.6
0.5
0.5
0.4
0.4
0.4
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
144.3
Toll Schedule v1, 6 segments
Key assumptions
- Growth from 2015 to 2030 interpolated from model-year results
- Growth rate beyond 2030 assumed decreasing 0.1% per annum to 1%
- Revenue growth is capped by capacity of individual HOT lane sections
- Ramp-up of revenue assumed:
60% year 1
85% year 2
100% year 3 onwards
Adjusted for Southern Section:
86% year 1
95% year 2
100% year 3 onwards
- Model revenue 2005 prices increased to 2008 prices using CPI-U
194.4 : 2005 Jan-Sep
216.0 : 2008 Jan-Sep
11.1% : 2005 Jan-Sep to 2008 Jan-Sep
- Discount rate to 2008 prices :
9%
- 2015 & 2030 Value of Time escalation based on growth in GDP
0.75 x forecast increase in GDP per capita:
1.0952 : 2005 to 2015
1.2989 : 2005 to 2030
126
I-95/I-395 HOT Lane
Appendix E
Segment Summary – Toll Schedule v1
All prices in 2008 $
All traffic flows weighted averages
Northern Section
Southern Section
AM
2015
PM
OP
AM
2030
PM
OP
TOLL RATES
A
B
C
D
E
F
Seminary Rd (Rt 420)
Franconia-Springfield Pkwy (Rt 7900)
Gordon Blvd (Rt 123)
Garrisonville Rd (Rt 610)
Mountain View Rd (Rt 627)
Massaponax
A
B
C
D
E
F
Seminary Rd (Rt 420)
Franconia-Springfield Pkwy (Rt 7900)
Gordon Blvd (Rt 123)
Garrisonville Rd (Rt 610)
Mountain View Rd (Rt 627)
Massaponax
A
B
C
D
E
F
Seminary Rd (Rt 420)
Franconia-Springfield Pkwy (Rt 7900)
Gordon Blvd (Rt 123)
Garrisonville Rd (Rt 610)
Mountain View Rd (Rt 627)
Massaponax
A
B
C
D
E
F
Seminary Rd (Rt 420)
Franconia-Springfield Pkwy (Rt 7900)
Gordon Blvd (Rt 123)
Garrisonville Rd (Rt 610)
Mountain View Rd (Rt 627)
Massaponax
A
B
C
D
E
F
Seminary Rd (Rt 420)
Franconia-Springfield Pkwy (Rt 7900)
Gordon Blvd (Rt 123)
Garrisonville Rd (Rt 610)
Mountain View Rd (Rt 627)
Massaponax
A
B
C
D
E
F
Seminary Rd (Rt 420)
Franconia-Springfield Pkwy (Rt 7900)
Gordon Blvd (Rt 123)
Garrisonville Rd (Rt 610)
Mountain View Rd (Rt 627)
Massaponax
A
B
C
D
E
F
Seminary Rd (Rt 420)
Franconia-Springfield Pkwy (Rt 7900)
Gordon Blvd (Rt 123)
Garrisonville Rd (Rt 610)
Mountain View Rd (Rt 627)
Massaponax
Eads Street/Pentagon
Seminary Rd (Rt 420)
Franconia-Springfield Pkwy (Rt 7900)
Gordon Blvd (Rt 123)
Garrisonville Rd (Rt 610)
Mountain View Rd (Rt 627)
$1.25
$0.75
$0.40
$0.30
$0.20
$0.20
$0.76
$0.75
$0.50
$0.50
$0.20
$0.20
$0.20
$0.20
$0.20
$0.20
$0.20
$0.20
$1.68
$1.01
$0.54
$0.40
$0.27
$0.27
$1.02
$1.01
$0.67
$0.67
$0.27
$0.27
$0.27
$0.27
$0.27
$0.27
$0.27
$0.27
Eads Street/Pentagon
Seminary Rd (Rt 420)
Franconia-Springfield Pkwy (Rt 7900)
Gordon Blvd (Rt 123)
Garrisonville Rd (Rt 610)
Mountain View Rd (Rt 627)
$4.39
$5.10
$4.50
$4.94
$1.52
$2.21
$2.65
$5.12
$5.61
$8.24
$1.51
$2.21
$0.71
$1.36
$2.24
$3.29
$1.51
$2.21
$5.90
$6.88
$6.07
$6.56
$2.06
$2.98
$3.58
$6.90
$7.51
$11.04
$2.04
$2.98
$0.96
$1.84
$3.03
$4.45
$2.04
$2.98
Eads Street/Pentagon
Seminary Rd (Rt 420)
Franconia-Springfield Pkwy (Rt 7900)
Gordon Blvd (Rt 123)
Garrisonville Rd (Rt 610)
Mountain View Rd (Rt 627)
7,579
5,019
6,234
3,937
4,439
4,187
6,839
7,684
7,659
5,139
3,989
2,239
4,908
4,781
5,175
3,324
2,728
1,611
7,647
6,563
10,102
6,961
7,020
6,415
8,207
10,143
11,612
8,989
7,089
4,322
5,264
5,398
6,407
4,373
3,777
2,211
Eads Street/Pentagon
Seminary Rd (Rt 420)
Franconia-Springfield Pkwy (Rt 7900)
Gordon Blvd (Rt 123)
Garrisonville Rd (Rt 610)
Mountain View Rd (Rt 627)
12,867
10,223
10,602
5,972
5,485
4,710
11,389
12,206
11,626
7,302
5,267
2,605
5,790
5,838
6,439
4,344
3,575
2,157
13,595
12,554
15,269
9,465
8,331
7,056
13,359
15,295
16,243
11,624
8,702
4,762
6,244
6,589
7,889
5,599
4,794
2,837
Eads Street/Pentagon
Seminary Rd (Rt 420)
Franconia-Springfield Pkwy (Rt 7900)
Gordon Blvd (Rt 123)
Garrisonville Rd (Rt 610)
Mountain View Rd (Rt 627)
86.8%
68.7%
61.7%
47.8%
45.7%
40.8%
78.4%
81.8%
65.9%
53.1%
44.2%
22.6%
39.9%
39.1%
36.5%
31.6%
30.0%
18.7%
91.7%
84.4%
88.8%
75.8%
69.4%
61.1%
92.0%
102.5%
92.0%
84.5%
73.0%
41.2%
43.0%
44.1%
44.7%
40.7%
40.2%
24.6%
52.6
62.5
63.9
64.7
64.9
64.8
58.5
59.3
63.3
64.5
65.0
65.1
64.0
64.5
64.6
64.8
65.1
65.1
49.0
56.8
53.5
60.0
63.2
63.1
48.3
45.3
50.0
55.6
63.0
64.9
63.8
63.7
63.3
63.6
64.5
65.0
20,431
19,513
20,436
14,738
13,297
11,268
19,136
21,257
21,211
16,141
12,701
14,456
8,839
10,025
10,780
9,332
8,359
7,742
21,301
20,737
23,260
16,462
15,881
14,153
19,881
21,781
23,462
17,171
14,452
17,336
9,102
10,510
11,618
9,990
9,665
9,331
TOTAL TOLLS FOR SEGMENT
HOT PAY TRAFFIC
HOT ALL TRAFFIC
HOT LANE USAGE (V/C)
HOT LANE SPEED (mph) - segment average
Eads Street/Pentagon
Seminary Rd (Rt 420)
Franconia-Springfield Pkwy (Rt 7900)
Gordon Blvd (Rt 123)
Garrisonville Rd (Rt 610)
Mountain View Rd (Rt 627)
GP TRAFFIC (in direction of operating HOT lanes only)
Eads Street/Pentagon
Seminary Rd (Rt 420)
Franconia-Springfield Pkwy (Rt 7900)
Gordon Blvd (Rt 123)
Garrisonville Rd (Rt 610)
Mountain View Rd (Rt 627)
127
I-95/I-395 HOT Lane
Appendix E
Cumulative Travel Times – Toll Schedule v1
2015 AM Peak (northbound)
2030 AM Peak (northbound)
140
140
GP Lanes
GP Lanes
HOT Lanes
HOT Lanes
120
Cumulative Journey Times (mins)
Cumulative Journey Times (mins)
120
100
80
60
40
20
100
80
60
40
20
0
0
26 25 24 23 22 21 20 19 18 17 16 15 14 13 12 11 10
9
8
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
26 25 24 23 22 21 20 19 18 17 16 15 14 13 12 11 10
Location (not to scale)
2015 PM Peak (southbound)
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
140
GP Lanes
HOT Lanes
GP Lanes
HOT Lanes
120
Cumulative Journey Times (mins)
120
Cumulative Journey Times (mins)
8
2030 PM Peak (southbound)
140
100
80
60
40
20
100
80
60
40
20
0
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
Location (not to scale)
10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26
Location (not to scale)
2015 Off-Peak (southbound)
2030 Off-Peak (southbound)
140
140
GP Lanes
HOT Lanes
GP Lanes
HOT Lanes
120
Cumulative Journey Times (mins)
120
Cumulative Journey Times (mins)
9
Location (not to scale)
100
80
60
40
20
100
80
60
40
20
0
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26
1
Location (not to scale)
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26
Location (not to scale)
Note: Locations are segment numbers as in Figure 8.1
128
I-95/I-395 HOT Lane
Appendix F
Appendix F – Sensitivity Tests – Detailed Results
129
I-95/I-395 HOT Lane
Appendix F
Sensitivity Tests – Detailed Results
This Appendix contains detailed results from the six sensitivity tests carried out, including the
options within each sensitivity. A revenue stream is provided for each test, including separate
streams for the northern and southern sectors.
Sensitivity Tests
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
Test 1a – Low Background Growth (-2yrs 2015) (-5yrs 2030)
Test 1b – High Background Growth (+2yrs 2015) (+5yrs 2030)
Test 2a – Low Ramp Up
Test 2b – High Ramp Up
Test 3a – Change VOC (+13%) Fuel (+20%)
Test 3b – Change VOC (-13%) Fuel (-20%)
Test 4a – Change VOT (-20%)
Test 4b – Change VOT (+20%)
Test 5a – Slugs/HOV3+/Transit
Test 5b – Slugs/HOV3+/Transit
Test 6a – Annual Expansion Factor – Low
Test 6b – Annual Expansion Factor – Medium
Test 6c – Annual Expansion Factor – High
130
I-95/I-395 HOT Lane
Appendix F
Revenue Stream – Test 1a – ALL
Year
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
2030
2031
2032
2033
2034
2035
2036
2037
2038
2039
2040
2041
2042
2043
2044
2045
2046
2047
2048
2049
2050
2051
2052
2053
2054
2055
2056
2057
2058
2059
2060
2061
2062
2063
2064
2065
2066
2067
2068
2069
2070
2071
Total
Unramped
Revenue
2008 $M
63.4
67.5
71.6
91.0
95.9
100.8
105.8
110.7
115.6
120.6
125.5
130.4
135.4
140.3
145.2
150.2
155.1
160.1
165.0
200.1
204.2
208.1
211.7
215.2
218.4
221.5
224.3
226.9
229.2
231.4
233.4
235.2
236.8
238.5
240.2
241.8
243.5
245.2
246.9
248.6
250.3
252.0
253.6
255.1
256.7
258.2
259.8
261.3
262.9
264.4
265.9
267.4
268.8
270.1
271.4
272.6
273.9
275.1
276.4
277.6
12,344.5
HOT Traffic
Growth
post 2030 pa
3.5%
3.4%
3.3%
3.2%
3.1%
3.0%
2.9%
2.8%
2.8%
2.7%
2.6%
2.5%
2.5%
2.4%
2.4%
2.3%
2.2%
2.1%
2.0%
1.9%
1.8%
1.7%
1.6%
1.5%
1.4%
1.3%
1.2%
1.1%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
Discounted
& Ramped
Revenue
2008 $M
27.0
37.3
42.7
48.9
47.8
46.4
44.7
42.9
41.1
39.3
37.6
35.8
34.1
32.4
30.8
29.2
27.7
26.2
24.8
27.6
25.8
24.1
22.5
21.0
19.6
18.2
16.9
15.7
14.5
13.5
12.5
11.5
10.6
9.8
9.1
8.4
7.8
7.2
6.6
6.1
5.6
5.2
4.8
4.4
4.1
3.8
3.5
3.2
3.0
2.7
2.5
2.3
2.2
2.0
1.8
1.7
1.6
1.4
1.3
1.2
1,064.1
Toll Schedule v1, 6 segments. LOW background growth
Key assumptions
- Growth from 2015 to 2030 interpolated from model-year results
- Growth rate beyond 2030 assumed decreasing 0.1% per annum to 1%
- Revenue growth is capped by capacity of individual HOT lane sections
- Ramp-up of revenue assumed:
60% year 1
85% year 2
100% year 3 onwards
Adjusted for Southern Section:
86% year 1
95% year 2
100% year 3 onwards
- Model revenue 2005 prices increased to 2008 prices using CPI-U
194.4 : 2005 Jan-Sep
216.0 : 2008 Jan-Sep
11.1% : 2005 Jan-Sep to 2008 Jan-Sep
- Discount rate to 2008 prices :
9%
- 2015 & 2030 Value of Time escalation based on growth in GDP
0.75 x forecast increase in GDP per capita:
1.0952 : 2005 to 2015
1.2989 : 2005 to 2030
131
I-95/I-395 HOT Lane
Appendix F
Revenue Stream – Test 1a – NORTHERN SECTION
Year
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
2030
2031
2032
2033
2034
2035
2036
2037
2038
2039
2040
2041
2042
2043
2044
2045
2046
2047
2048
2049
2050
2051
2052
2053
2054
2055
2056
2057
2058
2059
2060
2061
2062
2063
2064
2065
2066
2067
2068
2069
2070
2071
Total
Unramped
Revenue
2008 $M
63.4
67.5
71.6
79.0
83.2
87.4
91.7
95.9
100.1
104.3
108.6
112.8
117.0
121.2
125.5
129.7
133.9
138.2
142.4
172.5
176.0
179.3
182.4
185.4
188.1
190.7
193.1
195.2
197.2
199.0
200.6
202.1
203.5
204.9
206.3
207.6
209.0
210.4
211.8
213.2
214.6
216.0
217.3
218.5
219.7
221.0
222.3
223.5
224.7
225.9
227.1
228.2
229.3
230.4
231.3
232.3
233.3
234.3
235.2
236.2
10,622.8
HOT Traffic
Growth
post 2030 pa
3.5%
3.4%
3.3%
3.2%
3.1%
3.0%
2.9%
2.8%
2.8%
2.7%
2.6%
2.5%
2.5%
2.4%
2.4%
2.3%
2.2%
2.1%
2.0%
1.9%
1.8%
1.7%
1.6%
1.5%
1.4%
1.3%
1.2%
1.1%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
Discounted
& Ramped
Revenue
2008 $M
27.0
37.3
42.7
43.2
41.8
40.3
38.7
37.2
35.6
34.0
32.5
31.0
29.5
28.0
26.6
25.2
23.9
22.6
21.4
23.8
22.2
20.8
19.4
18.1
16.8
15.7
14.6
13.5
12.5
11.6
10.7
9.9
9.1
8.4
7.8
7.2
6.7
6.1
5.7
5.2
4.8
4.5
4.1
3.8
3.5
3.2
3.0
2.8
2.5
2.3
2.2
2.0
1.8
1.7
1.6
1.4
1.3
1.2
1.1
1.0
934.3
Toll Schedule v1, 6 segments. LOW background growth
Key assumptions
- Growth from 2015 to 2030 interpolated from model-year results
- Growth rate beyond 2030 assumed decreasing 0.1% per annum to 1%
- Revenue growth is capped by capacity of individual HOT lane sections
- Ramp-up of revenue assumed:
60% year 1
85% year 2
100% year 3 onwards
Adjusted for Southern Section:
86% year 1
95% year 2
100% year 3 onwards
- Model revenue 2005 prices increased to 2008 prices using CPI-U
194.4 : 2005 Jan-Sep
216.0 : 2008 Jan-Sep
11.1% : 2005 Jan-Sep to 2008 Jan-Sep
- Discount rate to 2008 prices :
9%
- 2015 & 2030 Value of Time escalation based on growth in GDP
0.75 x forecast increase in GDP per capita:
1.0952 : 2005 to 2015
1.2989 : 2005 to 2030
132
I-95/I-395 HOT Lane
Appendix F
Revenue Stream – Test 1a – SOUTHERN SECTION
Year
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
2030
2031
2032
2033
2034
2035
2036
2037
2038
2039
2040
2041
2042
2043
2044
2045
2046
2047
2048
2049
2050
2051
2052
2053
2054
2055
2056
2057
2058
2059
2060
2061
2062
2063
2064
2065
2066
2067
2068
2069
2070
2071
Total
Unramped
Revenue
2008 $M
12.0
12.7
13.4
14.1
14.8
15.5
16.2
16.9
17.7
18.4
19.1
19.8
20.5
21.2
21.9
22.6
27.6
28.2
28.8
29.3
29.8
30.3
30.8
31.2
31.7
32.1
32.4
32.7
33.1
33.3
33.6
33.9
34.2
34.5
34.8
35.1
35.4
35.7
36.0
36.3
36.6
36.9
37.2
37.5
37.9
38.2
38.5
38.8
39.2
39.5
39.7
40.0
40.3
40.6
40.8
41.1
41.4
1,721.7
HOT Traffic
Growth
post 2030 pa
3.5%
3.4%
3.3%
3.2%
3.1%
3.0%
2.9%
2.8%
2.8%
2.7%
2.6%
2.5%
2.5%
2.4%
2.4%
2.3%
2.2%
2.1%
2.0%
1.9%
1.8%
1.7%
1.6%
1.5%
1.4%
1.3%
1.2%
1.1%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
Discounted
& Ramped
Revenue
2008 $M
5.7
6.1
6.2
6.0
5.7
5.5
5.3
5.1
4.8
4.6
4.4
4.2
4.0
3.8
3.6
3.4
3.8
3.6
3.3
3.1
2.9
2.7
2.5
2.4
2.2
2.0
1.9
1.7
1.6
1.5
1.4
1.3
1.2
1.1
1.0
0.9
0.9
0.8
0.7
0.7
0.6
0.6
0.5
0.5
0.5
0.4
0.4
0.4
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
129.9
Toll Schedule v1, 6 segments. LOW background growth
Key assumptions
- Growth from 2015 to 2030 interpolated from model-year results
- Growth rate beyond 2030 assumed decreasing 0.1% per annum to 1%
- Revenue growth is capped by capacity of individual HOT lane sections
- Ramp-up of revenue assumed:
60% year 1
85% year 2
100% year 3 onwards
Adjusted for Southern Section:
86% year 1
95% year 2
100% year 3 onwards
- Model revenue 2005 prices increased to 2008 prices using CPI-U
194.4 : 2005 Jan-Sep
216.0 : 2008 Jan-Sep
11.1% : 2005 Jan-Sep to 2008 Jan-Sep
- Discount rate to 2008 prices :
9%
- 2015 & 2030 Value of Time escalation based on growth in GDP
0.75 x forecast increase in GDP per capita:
1.0952 : 2005 to 2015
1.2989 : 2005 to 2030
133
I-95/I-395 HOT Lane
Appendix F
Revenue Stream – Test 1b – ALL
Year
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
2030
2031
2032
2033
2034
2035
2036
2037
2038
2039
2040
2041
2042
2043
2044
2045
2046
2047
2048
2049
2050
2051
2052
2053
2054
2055
2056
2057
2058
2059
2060
2061
2062
2063
2064
2065
2066
2067
2068
2069
2070
2071
Total
Unramped
Revenue
2008 $M
80.6
86.2
91.8
115.6
122.4
129.2
135.9
142.7
149.4
156.2
162.9
169.7
176.4
183.2
189.9
196.7
203.5
210.2
217.0
200.4
204.8
208.9
212.8
216.5
220.1
223.3
226.3
229.0
231.7
234.1
236.3
238.4
240.3
242.1
243.7
245.3
246.9
248.5
250.1
251.7
253.2
254.7
256.2
257.7
259.2
260.7
262.1
263.6
265.0
266.4
267.8
269.1
270.4
271.6
272.8
274.0
275.2
276.3
277.5
278.7
13,102.6
HOT Traffic
Growth
post 2030 pa
3.9%
3.7%
3.6%
3.5%
3.4%
3.2%
3.1%
3.1%
3.0%
2.9%
2.8%
2.7%
2.6%
2.6%
2.5%
2.4%
2.3%
2.2%
2.1%
2.0%
1.9%
1.8%
1.7%
1.6%
1.5%
1.4%
1.3%
1.2%
1.1%
1.0%
0.9%
0.9%
0.9%
0.9%
0.9%
0.9%
0.9%
0.9%
0.9%
0.9%
0.9%
0.9%
0.9%
0.9%
0.9%
0.9%
0.9%
0.9%
0.9%
0.9%
0.9%
0.9%
0.9%
0.9%
0.9%
0.9%
Discounted
& Ramped
Revenue
2008 $M
34.2
47.6
54.7
62.1
61.0
59.5
57.4
55.3
53.1
50.9
48.8
46.6
44.4
42.3
40.3
38.3
36.3
34.4
32.6
27.6
25.9
24.2
22.6
21.1
19.7
18.3
17.1
15.8
14.7
13.6
12.6
11.7
10.8
10.0
9.2
8.5
7.9
7.3
6.7
6.2
5.7
5.3
4.9
4.5
4.1
3.8
3.5
3.3
3.0
2.8
2.6
2.4
2.2
2.0
1.8
1.7
1.6
1.4
1.3
1.2
1,270.4
Toll Schedule v1, 6 segments. HIGH background growth
Key assumptions
- Growth from 2015 to 2030 interpolated from model-year results
- Growth rate beyond 2030 assumed decreasing 0.1% per annum to 1%
- Revenue growth is capped by capacity of individual HOT lane sections
- Ramp-up of revenue assumed:
60% year 1
85% year 2
100% year 3 onwards
Adjusted for Southern Section:
86% year 1
95% year 2
100% year 3 onwards
- Model revenue 2005 prices increased to 2008 prices using CPI-U
194.4 : 2005 Jan-Sep
216.0 : 2008 Jan-Sep
11.1% : 2005 Jan-Sep to 2008 Jan-Sep
- Discount rate to 2008 prices :
9%
- 2015 & 2030 Value of Time escalation based on growth in GDP
0.75 x forecast increase in GDP per capita:
1.0952 : 2005 to 2015
1.2989 : 2005 to 2030
134
I-95/I-395 HOT Lane
Appendix F
Revenue Stream – Test 1b – NORTHERN SECTION
Year
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
2030
2031
2032
2033
2034
2035
2036
2037
2038
2039
2040
2041
2042
2043
2044
2045
2046
2047
2048
2049
2050
2051
2052
2053
2054
2055
2056
2057
2058
2059
2060
2061
2062
2063
2064
2065
2066
2067
2068
2069
2070
2071
Total
Unramped
Revenue
2008 $M
80.6
86.2
91.8
100.1
105.9
111.7
117.5
123.2
129.0
134.8
140.6
146.4
152.2
158.0
163.7
169.5
175.3
181.1
186.9
172.7
176.5
180.0
183.3
186.5
189.5
192.2
194.7
197.0
199.2
201.2
203.0
204.8
206.3
207.8
209.1
210.4
211.8
213.1
214.5
215.8
217.0
218.1
219.3
220.5
221.7
222.9
224.0
225.2
226.3
227.5
228.5
229.5
230.5
231.5
232.4
233.3
234.3
235.2
236.1
237.0
11,274.7
HOT Traffic
Growth
post 2030 pa
3.9%
3.7%
3.6%
3.5%
3.4%
3.2%
3.1%
3.1%
3.0%
2.9%
2.8%
2.7%
2.6%
2.6%
2.5%
2.4%
2.3%
2.2%
2.1%
2.0%
1.9%
1.8%
1.7%
1.6%
1.5%
1.4%
1.3%
1.2%
1.1%
1.0%
0.9%
0.9%
0.9%
0.9%
0.9%
0.9%
0.9%
0.9%
0.9%
0.9%
0.9%
0.9%
0.9%
0.9%
0.9%
0.9%
0.9%
0.9%
0.9%
0.9%
0.9%
0.9%
0.9%
0.9%
0.9%
0.9%
Discounted
& Ramped
Revenue
2008 $M
34.2
47.6
54.7
54.8
53.1
51.4
49.6
47.8
45.9
44.0
42.1
40.2
38.3
36.5
34.7
33.0
31.3
29.6
28.1
23.8
22.3
20.9
19.5
18.2
17.0
15.8
14.7
13.6
12.6
11.7
10.8
10.0
9.3
8.6
7.9
7.3
6.7
6.2
5.7
5.3
4.9
4.5
4.2
3.8
3.5
3.3
3.0
2.8
2.6
2.4
2.2
2.0
1.8
1.7
1.6
1.4
1.3
1.2
1.1
1.0
1,115.4
Toll Schedule v1, 6 segments. HIGH background growth
Key assumptions
- Growth from 2015 to 2030 interpolated from model-year results
- Growth rate beyond 2030 assumed decreasing 0.1% per annum to 1%
- Revenue growth is capped by capacity of individual HOT lane sections
- Ramp-up of revenue assumed:
60% year 1
85% year 2
100% year 3 onwards
Adjusted for Southern Section:
86% year 1
95% year 2
100% year 3 onwards
- Model revenue 2005 prices increased to 2008 prices using CPI-U
194.4 : 2005 Jan-Sep
216.0 : 2008 Jan-Sep
11.1% : 2005 Jan-Sep to 2008 Jan-Sep
- Discount rate to 2008 prices :
9%
- 2015 & 2030 Value of Time escalation based on growth in GDP
0.75 x forecast increase in GDP per capita:
1.0952 : 2005 to 2015
1.2989 : 2005 to 2030
135
I-95/I-395 HOT Lane
Appendix F
Revenue Stream – Test 1b – SOUTHERN SECTION
Year
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
2030
2031
2032
2033
2034
2035
2036
2037
2038
2039
2040
2041
2042
2043
2044
2045
2046
2047
2048
2049
2050
2051
2052
2053
2054
2055
2056
2057
2058
2059
2060
2061
2062
2063
2064
2065
2066
2067
2068
2069
2070
2071
Total
Unramped
Revenue
2008 $M
15.5
16.5
17.5
18.4
19.4
20.4
21.4
22.3
23.3
24.3
25.2
26.2
27.2
28.1
29.1
30.1
27.7
28.3
28.9
29.5
30.0
30.6
31.1
31.6
32.1
32.5
32.9
33.3
33.6
34.0
34.3
34.5
34.8
35.1
35.4
35.7
36.0
36.3
36.6
36.9
37.2
37.5
37.8
38.1
38.4
38.7
39.0
39.3
39.6
39.9
40.1
40.4
40.6
40.9
41.2
41.5
41.7
1,827.9
HOT Traffic
Growth
post 2030 pa
3.9%
3.7%
3.6%
3.5%
3.4%
3.2%
3.1%
3.1%
3.0%
2.9%
2.8%
2.7%
2.6%
2.6%
2.5%
2.4%
2.3%
2.2%
2.1%
2.0%
1.9%
1.8%
1.7%
1.6%
1.5%
1.4%
1.3%
1.2%
1.1%
1.0%
0.9%
0.9%
0.9%
0.9%
0.9%
0.9%
0.9%
0.9%
0.9%
0.9%
0.9%
0.9%
0.9%
0.9%
0.9%
0.9%
0.9%
0.9%
0.9%
0.9%
0.9%
0.9%
0.9%
0.9%
0.9%
0.9%
Discounted
& Ramped
Revenue
2008 $M
7.3
7.9
8.0
7.8
7.5
7.2
7.0
6.7
6.4
6.1
5.8
5.6
5.3
5.0
4.8
4.5
3.8
3.6
3.4
3.1
2.9
2.7
2.6
2.4
2.2
2.1
1.9
1.8
1.6
1.5
1.4
1.3
1.2
1.1
1.0
1.0
0.9
0.8
0.8
0.7
0.6
0.6
0.6
0.5
0.5
0.4
0.4
0.4
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
155.1
Toll Schedule v1, 6 segments. HIGH background growth
Key assumptions
- Growth from 2015 to 2030 interpolated from model-year results
- Growth rate beyond 2030 assumed decreasing 0.1% per annum to 1%
- Revenue growth is capped by capacity of individual HOT lane sections
- Ramp-up of revenue assumed:
60% year 1
85% year 2
100% year 3 onwards
Adjusted for Southern Section:
86% year 1
95% year 2
100% year 3 onwards
- Model revenue 2005 prices increased to 2008 prices using CPI-U
194.4 : 2005 Jan-Sep
216.0 : 2008 Jan-Sep
11.1% : 2005 Jan-Sep to 2008 Jan-Sep
- Discount rate to 2008 prices :
9%
- 2015 & 2030 Value of Time escalation based on growth in GDP
0.75 x forecast increase in GDP per capita:
1.0952 : 2005 to 2015
1.2989 : 2005 to 2030
136
I-95/I-395 HOT Lane
Appendix F
Revenue Stream – Test 2a – ALL
Year
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
2030
2031
2032
2033
2034
2035
2036
2037
2038
2039
2040
2041
2042
2043
2044
2045
2046
2047
2048
2049
2050
2051
2052
2053
2054
2055
2056
2057
2058
2059
2060
2061
2062
2063
2064
2065
2066
2067
2068
2069
2070
2071
Total
Unramped
Revenue
2008 $M
71.6
76.8
81.9
103.3
109.5
115.6
121.8
128.0
134.1
140.3
146.5
152.7
158.8
165.0
171.2
177.3
183.5
189.7
195.8
200.5
205.0
209.2
213.1
217.0
220.6
223.9
227.0
229.8
232.6
235.0
237.4
239.6
241.6
243.4
245.1
246.8
248.5
250.2
251.9
253.4
255.0
256.5
258.1
259.7
261.2
262.7
264.2
265.8
267.2
268.6
269.9
271.2
272.4
273.7
274.9
276.2
277.4
278.7
279.9
281.1
12,869.2
HOT Traffic
Growth
post 2030 pa
4.0%
3.8%
3.7%
3.6%
3.4%
3.3%
3.2%
3.1%
3.0%
2.9%
2.9%
2.8%
2.7%
2.6%
2.6%
2.5%
2.4%
2.3%
2.2%
2.1%
2.0%
1.9%
1.8%
1.7%
1.6%
1.5%
1.4%
1.3%
1.2%
1.1%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
Discounted
& Ramped
Revenue
2008 $M
30.4
34.9
39.1
50.6
54.2
52.8
51.2
49.6
47.7
45.8
43.8
41.9
40.0
38.1
36.3
34.5
32.7
31.0
29.4
27.6
25.9
24.3
22.7
21.2
19.8
18.4
17.1
15.9
14.8
13.7
12.7
11.7
10.9
10.0
9.3
8.6
7.9
7.3
6.7
6.2
5.8
5.3
4.9
4.5
4.2
3.9
3.6
3.3
3.0
2.8
2.6
2.4
2.2
2.0
1.9
1.7
1.6
1.5
1.3
1.2
1,156.1
Toll Schedule v1, 6 segments - LOW ramp-up
Key assumptions
- Growth from 2015 to 2030 interpolated from model-year results
- Growth rate beyond 2030 assumed decreasing 0.1% per annum to 1%
- Revenue growth is capped by capacity of individual HOT lane sections
- Ramp-up of revenue assumed:
60% year 1
70% year 2
80% year 3
90% year 4
100% year 5 onwards
Adjusted for Southern Section:
86% year 1
90% year 2
93% year 3
97% year 4
100% year 5 onwards
- Model revenue 2005 prices increased to 2008 prices using CPI-U
194.4 : 2005 Jan-Sep
216.0 : 2008 Jan-Sep
11.1% : 2005 Jan-Sep to 2008 Jan-Sep
- Discount rate to 2008 prices :
9%
- 2015 & 2030 Value of Time escalation based on growth in GDP
0.75 x forecast increase in GDP per capita:
1.0952 : 2005 to 2015
1.2989 : 2005 to 2030
137
I-95/I-395 HOT Lane
Appendix F
Revenue Stream – Test 2a – NORTHERN SECTION
Year
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
2030
2031
2032
2033
2034
2035
2036
2037
2038
2039
2040
2041
2042
2043
2044
2045
2046
2047
2048
2049
2050
2051
2052
2053
2054
2055
2056
2057
2058
2059
2060
2061
2062
2063
2064
2065
2066
2067
2068
2069
2070
2071
Total
Unramped
Revenue
2008 $M
71.6
76.8
81.9
89.5
94.8
100.1
105.4
110.7
116.0
121.2
126.5
131.8
137.1
142.4
147.7
153.0
158.2
163.5
168.8
172.8
176.6
180.3
183.6
186.9
190.0
192.7
195.3
197.7
199.9
202.0
203.9
205.7
207.4
208.9
210.3
211.7
213.1
214.5
215.9
217.2
218.4
219.6
220.9
222.1
223.3
224.6
225.7
226.9
228.1
229.2
230.2
231.2
232.2
233.1
234.1
235.0
236.0
237.0
238.0
238.9
11,068.0
HOT Traffic
Growth
post 2030 pa
4.0%
3.8%
3.7%
3.6%
3.4%
3.3%
3.2%
3.1%
3.0%
2.9%
2.9%
2.8%
2.7%
2.6%
2.6%
2.5%
2.4%
2.3%
2.2%
2.1%
2.0%
1.9%
1.8%
1.7%
1.6%
1.5%
1.4%
1.3%
1.2%
1.1%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
Discounted
& Ramped
Revenue
2008 $M
30.4
34.9
39.1
44.1
47.6
46.1
44.5
42.9
41.2
39.5
37.9
36.2
34.5
32.9
31.3
29.7
28.2
26.8
25.4
23.8
22.3
20.9
19.5
18.2
17.0
15.8
14.7
13.7
12.7
11.8
10.9
10.1
9.3
8.6
8.0
7.3
6.8
6.3
5.8
5.3
4.9
4.5
4.2
3.9
3.6
3.3
3.0
2.8
2.6
2.4
2.2
2.0
1.9
1.7
1.6
1.5
1.3
1.2
1.1
1.0
1,012.9
Toll Schedule v1, 6 segments - LOW ramp-up
Key assumptions
- Growth from 2015 to 2030 interpolated from model-year results
- Growth rate beyond 2030 assumed decreasing 0.1% per annum to 1%
- Revenue growth is capped by capacity of individual HOT lane sections
- Ramp-up of revenue assumed:
60% year 1
70% year 2
80% year 3
90% year 4
100% year 5 onwards
Adjusted for Southern Section:
86% year 1
90% year 2
93% year 3
97% year 4
100% year 5 onwards
- Model revenue 2005 prices increased to 2008 prices using CPI-U
194.4 : 2005 Jan-Sep
216.0 : 2008 Jan-Sep
11.1% : 2005 Jan-Sep to 2008 Jan-Sep
- Discount rate to 2008 prices :
9%
- 2015 & 2030 Value of Time escalation based on growth in GDP
0.75 x forecast increase in GDP per capita:
1.0952 : 2005 to 2015
1.2989 : 2005 to 2030
138
I-95/I-395 HOT Lane
Appendix F
Revenue Stream – Test 2a – SOUTHERN SECTION
Year
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
2030
2031
2032
2033
2034
2035
2036
2037
2038
2039
2040
2041
2042
2043
2044
2045
2046
2047
2048
2049
2050
2051
2052
2053
2054
2055
2056
2057
2058
2059
2060
2061
2062
2063
2064
2065
2066
2067
2068
2069
2070
2071
Total
Unramped
Revenue
2008 $M
13.8
14.6
15.5
16.4
17.3
18.2
19.1
19.9
20.8
21.7
22.6
23.5
24.4
25.3
26.1
27.0
27.7
28.3
28.9
29.5
30.1
30.6
31.2
31.7
32.2
32.6
33.0
33.4
33.8
34.2
34.5
34.8
35.1
35.4
35.7
36.0
36.3
36.6
36.9
37.2
37.5
37.8
38.2
38.5
38.8
39.2
39.5
39.7
40.0
40.3
40.6
40.8
41.1
41.4
41.7
42.0
42.3
1,801.2
HOT Traffic
Growth
post 2030 pa
4.0%
3.8%
3.7%
3.6%
3.4%
3.3%
3.2%
3.1%
3.0%
2.9%
2.9%
2.8%
2.7%
2.6%
2.6%
2.5%
2.4%
2.3%
2.2%
2.1%
2.0%
1.9%
1.8%
1.7%
1.6%
1.5%
1.4%
1.3%
1.2%
1.1%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
Discounted
& Ramped
Revenue
2008 $M
6.5
6.6
6.7
6.7
6.7
6.5
6.2
6.0
5.7
5.5
5.2
5.0
4.7
4.5
4.3
4.1
3.8
3.6
3.4
3.1
2.9
2.7
2.6
2.4
2.2
2.1
1.9
1.8
1.7
1.5
1.4
1.3
1.2
1.1
1.0
1.0
0.9
0.8
0.8
0.7
0.7
0.6
0.6
0.5
0.5
0.4
0.4
0.4
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
143.2
Toll Schedule v1, 6 segments - LOW ramp-up
Key assumptions
- Growth from 2015 to 2030 interpolated from model-year results
- Growth rate beyond 2030 assumed decreasing 0.1% per annum to 1%
- Revenue growth is capped by capacity of individual HOT lane sections
- Ramp-up of revenue assumed:
60% year 1
70% year 2
80% year 3
90% year 4
100% year 5 onwards
Adjusted for Southern Section:
86% year 1
90% year 2
93% year 3
97% year 4
100% year 5 onwards
- Model revenue 2005 prices increased to 2008 prices using CPI-U
194.4 : 2005 Jan-Sep
216.0 : 2008 Jan-Sep
11.1% : 2005 Jan-Sep to 2008 Jan-Sep
- Discount rate to 2008 prices :
9%
- 2015 & 2030 Value of Time escalation based on growth in GDP
0.75 x forecast increase in GDP per capita:
1.0952 : 2005 to 2015
1.2989 : 2005 to 2030
139
I-95/I-395 HOT Lane
Appendix F
Revenue Stream – Test 2b – ALL
Year
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
2030
2031
2032
2033
2034
2035
2036
2037
2038
2039
2040
2041
2042
2043
2044
2045
2046
2047
2048
2049
2050
2051
2052
2053
2054
2055
2056
2057
2058
2059
2060
2061
2062
2063
2064
2065
2066
2067
2068
2069
2070
2071
Total
Unramped
Revenue
2008 $M
71.6
76.8
81.9
103.3
109.5
115.6
121.8
128.0
134.1
140.3
146.5
152.7
158.8
165.0
171.2
177.3
183.5
189.7
195.8
200.5
205.0
209.2
213.1
217.0
220.6
223.9
227.0
229.8
232.6
235.0
237.4
239.6
241.6
243.4
245.1
246.8
248.5
250.2
251.9
253.4
255.0
256.5
258.1
259.7
261.2
262.7
264.2
265.8
267.2
268.6
269.9
271.2
272.4
273.7
274.9
276.2
277.4
278.7
279.9
281.1
12,869.2
HOT Traffic
Growth
post 2030 pa
4.0%
3.8%
3.7%
3.6%
3.4%
3.3%
3.2%
3.1%
3.0%
2.9%
2.9%
2.8%
2.7%
2.6%
2.6%
2.5%
2.4%
2.3%
2.2%
2.1%
2.0%
1.9%
1.8%
1.7%
1.6%
1.5%
1.4%
1.3%
1.2%
1.1%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
Discounted
& Ramped
Revenue
2008 $M
45.7
49.9
48.8
56.3
54.9
53.2
51.5
49.6
47.7
45.8
43.8
41.9
40.0
38.1
36.3
34.5
32.7
31.0
29.4
27.6
25.9
24.3
22.7
21.2
19.8
18.4
17.1
15.9
14.8
13.7
12.7
11.7
10.9
10.0
9.3
8.6
7.9
7.3
6.7
6.2
5.8
5.3
4.9
4.5
4.2
3.9
3.6
3.3
3.0
2.8
2.6
2.4
2.2
2.0
1.9
1.7
1.6
1.5
1.3
1.2
1,203.2
Toll Schedule v1, 6 segments - HIGH ramp-up
Key assumptions
- Growth from 2015 to 2030 interpolated from model-year results
- Growth rate beyond 2030 assumed decreasing 0.1% per annum to 1%
- Revenue growth is capped by capacity of individual HOT lane sections
- Ramp-up of revenue assumed:
90% year 1
100% year 2
100% year 3
100% year 4
100% year 5 onwards
Adjusted for Southern Section:
97% year 1
100% year 2
100% year 3
100% year 4
100% year 5 onwards
- Model revenue 2005 prices increased to 2008 prices using CPI-U
194.4 : 2005 Jan-Sep
216.0 : 2008 Jan-Sep
11.1% : 2005 Jan-Sep to 2008 Jan-Sep
- Discount rate to 2008 prices :
9%
- 2015 & 2030 Value of Time escalation based on growth in GDP
0.75 x forecast increase in GDP per capita:
1.0952 : 2005 to 2015
1.2989 : 2005 to 2030
140
I-95/I-395 HOT Lane
Appendix F
Revenue Stream – Test 2b – NORTHERN SECTION
Year
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
2030
2031
2032
2033
2034
2035
2036
2037
2038
2039
2040
2041
2042
2043
2044
2045
2046
2047
2048
2049
2050
2051
2052
2053
2054
2055
2056
2057
2058
2059
2060
2061
2062
2063
2064
2065
2066
2067
2068
2069
2070
2071
Total
Unramped
Revenue
2008 $M
71.6
76.8
81.9
89.5
94.8
100.1
105.4
110.7
116.0
121.2
126.5
131.8
137.1
142.4
147.7
153.0
158.2
163.5
168.8
172.8
176.6
180.3
183.6
186.9
190.0
192.7
195.3
197.7
199.9
202.0
203.9
205.7
207.4
208.9
210.3
211.7
213.1
214.5
215.9
217.2
218.4
219.6
220.9
222.1
223.3
224.6
225.7
226.9
228.1
229.2
230.2
231.2
232.2
233.1
234.1
235.0
236.0
237.0
238.0
238.9
11,068.0
HOT Traffic
Growth
post 2030 pa
4.0%
3.8%
3.7%
3.6%
3.4%
3.3%
3.2%
3.1%
3.0%
2.9%
2.9%
2.8%
2.7%
2.6%
2.6%
2.5%
2.4%
2.3%
2.2%
2.1%
2.0%
1.9%
1.8%
1.7%
1.6%
1.5%
1.4%
1.3%
1.2%
1.1%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
Discounted
& Ramped
Revenue
2008 $M
45.7
49.9
48.8
49.0
47.6
46.1
44.5
42.9
41.2
39.5
37.9
36.2
34.5
32.9
31.3
29.7
28.2
26.8
25.4
23.8
22.3
20.9
19.5
18.2
17.0
15.8
14.7
13.7
12.7
11.8
10.9
10.1
9.3
8.6
8.0
7.3
6.8
6.3
5.8
5.3
4.9
4.5
4.2
3.9
3.6
3.3
3.0
2.8
2.6
2.4
2.2
2.0
1.9
1.7
1.6
1.5
1.3
1.2
1.1
1.0
1,057.8
Toll Schedule v1, 6 segments - HIGH ramp-up
Key assumptions
- Growth from 2015 to 2030 interpolated from model-year results
- Growth rate beyond 2030 assumed decreasing 0.1% per annum to 1%
- Revenue growth is capped by capacity of individual HOT lane sections
- Ramp-up of revenue assumed:
90% year 1
100% year 2
100% year 3
100% year 4
100% year 5 onwards
Adjusted for Southern Section:
97% year 1
100% year 2
100% year 3
100% year 4
100% year 5 onwards
- Model revenue 2005 prices increased to 2008 prices using CPI-U
194.4 : 2005 Jan-Sep
216.0 : 2008 Jan-Sep
11.1% : 2005 Jan-Sep to 2008 Jan-Sep
- Discount rate to 2008 prices :
9%
- 2015 & 2030 Value of Time escalation based on growth in GDP
0.75 x forecast increase in GDP per capita:
1.0952 : 2005 to 2015
1.2989 : 2005 to 2030
141
I-95/I-395 HOT Lane
Appendix F
Revenue Stream – Test 2b – SOUTHERN SECTION
Year
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
2030
2031
2032
2033
2034
2035
2036
2037
2038
2039
2040
2041
2042
2043
2044
2045
2046
2047
2048
2049
2050
2051
2052
2053
2054
2055
2056
2057
2058
2059
2060
2061
2062
2063
2064
2065
2066
2067
2068
2069
2070
2071
Total
Unramped
Revenue
2008 $M
13.8
14.6
15.5
16.4
17.3
18.2
19.1
19.9
20.8
21.7
22.6
23.5
24.4
25.3
26.1
27.0
27.7
28.3
28.9
29.5
30.1
30.6
31.2
31.7
32.2
32.6
33.0
33.4
33.8
34.2
34.5
34.8
35.1
35.4
35.7
36.0
36.3
36.6
36.9
37.2
37.5
37.8
38.2
38.5
38.8
39.2
39.5
39.7
40.0
40.3
40.6
40.8
41.1
41.4
41.7
42.0
42.3
1,801.2
HOT Traffic
Growth
post 2030 pa
4.0%
3.8%
3.7%
3.6%
3.4%
3.3%
3.2%
3.1%
3.0%
2.9%
2.9%
2.8%
2.7%
2.6%
2.6%
2.5%
2.4%
2.3%
2.2%
2.1%
2.0%
1.9%
1.8%
1.7%
1.6%
1.5%
1.4%
1.3%
1.2%
1.1%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
Discounted
& Ramped
Revenue
2008 $M
7.3
7.4
7.2
6.9
6.7
6.5
6.2
6.0
5.7
5.5
5.2
5.0
4.7
4.5
4.3
4.1
3.8
3.6
3.4
3.1
2.9
2.7
2.6
2.4
2.2
2.1
1.9
1.8
1.7
1.5
1.4
1.3
1.2
1.1
1.0
1.0
0.9
0.8
0.8
0.7
0.7
0.6
0.6
0.5
0.5
0.4
0.4
0.4
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
145.4
Toll Schedule v1, 6 segments - HIGH ramp-up
Key assumptions
- Growth from 2015 to 2030 interpolated from model-year results
- Growth rate beyond 2030 assumed decreasing 0.1% per annum to 1%
- Revenue growth is capped by capacity of individual HOT lane sections
- Ramp-up of revenue assumed:
90% year 1
100% year 2
100% year 3
100% year 4
100% year 5 onwards
Adjusted for Southern Section:
97% year 1
100% year 2
100% year 3
100% year 4
100% year 5 onwards
- Model revenue 2005 prices increased to 2008 prices using CPI-U
194.4 : 2005 Jan-Sep
216.0 : 2008 Jan-Sep
11.1% : 2005 Jan-Sep to 2008 Jan-Sep
- Discount rate to 2008 prices :
9%
- 2015 & 2030 Value of Time escalation based on growth in GDP
0.75 x forecast increase in GDP per capita:
1.0952 : 2005 to 2015
1.2989 : 2005 to 2030
142
I-95/I-395 HOT Lane
Appendix F
Revenue Stream – Test 3a – ALL
Year
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
2030
2031
2032
2033
2034
2035
2036
2037
2038
2039
2040
2041
2042
2043
2044
2045
2046
2047
2048
2049
2050
2051
2052
2053
2054
2055
2056
2057
2058
2059
2060
2061
2062
2063
2064
2065
2066
2067
2068
2069
2070
2071
Total
Unramped
Revenue
2008 $M
71.8
76.9
82.0
92.5
97.9
103.3
108.7
114.2
119.6
125.0
130.4
135.8
141.2
146.6
152.0
157.4
162.8
168.2
173.6
177.6
181.6
185.5
189.0
192.4
195.6
198.5
201.3
203.7
206.1
208.3
210.3
212.2
214.0
215.7
217.1
218.6
220.0
221.5
222.9
224.4
225.8
227.2
228.6
230.0
231.4
232.9
234.3
235.7
237.2
238.5
239.8
241.0
242.2
243.5
244.7
245.9
247.0
248.2
249.4
250.5
11,449.8
HOT Traffic
Growth
post 2030 pa
3.9%
3.7%
3.6%
3.5%
3.4%
3.2%
3.1%
3.1%
3.0%
2.9%
2.8%
2.7%
2.6%
2.6%
2.5%
2.4%
2.3%
2.2%
2.1%
2.0%
1.9%
1.8%
1.7%
1.6%
1.5%
1.4%
1.3%
1.2%
1.1%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
Discounted
& Ramped
Revenue
2008 $M
30.5
42.5
48.9
49.7
48.8
47.6
45.9
44.2
42.5
40.8
39.0
37.3
35.6
33.9
32.2
30.6
29.0
27.5
26.1
24.5
23.0
21.5
20.1
18.8
17.5
16.3
15.2
14.1
13.1
12.1
11.2
10.4
9.6
8.9
8.2
7.6
7.0
6.5
6.0
5.5
5.1
4.7
4.3
4.0
3.7
3.4
3.2
2.9
2.7
2.5
2.3
2.1
1.9
1.8
1.7
1.5
1.4
1.3
1.2
1.1
1,062.4
Test 3a VOC (+13%) Fuel (+20%), 6 segments
Key assumptions
- Growth from 2015 to 2030 interpolated from model-year results
- Growth rate beyond 2030 assumed decreasing 0.1% per annum to 1%
- Revenue growth is capped by capacity of individual HOT lane sections
- Ramp-up of revenue assumed:
60% year 1
85% year 2
100% year 3 onwards
Adjusted for Southern Section:
86% year 1
95% year 2
100% year 3 onwards
- Model revenue 2005 prices increased to 2008 prices using CPI-U
194.4 : 2005 Jan-Sep
216.0 : 2008 Jan-Sep
11.1% : 2005 Jan-Sep to 2008 Jan-Sep
- Discount rate to 2008 prices :
9%
- 2015 & 2030 Value of Time escalation based on growth in GDP
0.75 x forecast increase in GDP per capita:
1.0952 : 2005 to 2015
1.2989 : 2005 to 2030
143
I-95/I-395 HOT Lane
Appendix F
Revenue Stream – Test 3a – NORTHERN SECTION
Year
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
2030
2031
2032
2033
2034
2035
2036
2037
2038
2039
2040
2041
2042
2043
2044
2045
2046
2047
2048
2049
2050
2051
2052
2053
2054
2055
2056
2057
2058
2059
2060
2061
2062
2063
2064
2065
2066
2067
2068
2069
2070
2071
Total
Unramped
Revenue
2008 $M
71.8
76.9
82.0
79.9
84.6
89.2
93.9
98.5
103.2
107.8
112.5
117.1
121.8
126.4
131.1
135.7
140.4
145.0
149.7
153.1
156.5
159.8
162.9
165.7
168.4
170.9
173.1
175.2
177.1
178.9
180.6
182.2
183.7
185.0
186.2
187.3
188.5
189.6
190.8
191.9
193.0
194.1
195.2
196.4
197.5
198.6
199.7
200.8
202.0
203.0
204.0
204.9
205.8
206.6
207.5
208.4
209.2
210.1
210.9
211.6
9,834.6
HOT Traffic
Growth
post 2030 pa
3.9%
3.7%
3.6%
3.5%
3.4%
3.2%
3.1%
3.1%
3.0%
2.9%
2.8%
2.7%
2.6%
2.6%
2.5%
2.4%
2.3%
2.2%
2.1%
2.0%
1.9%
1.8%
1.7%
1.6%
1.5%
1.4%
1.3%
1.2%
1.1%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
Discounted
& Ramped
Revenue
2008 $M
30.5
42.5
48.9
43.7
42.5
41.1
39.7
38.2
36.7
35.2
33.7
32.2
30.7
29.2
27.8
26.4
25.1
23.7
22.5
21.1
19.8
18.5
17.3
16.2
15.1
14.0
13.1
12.1
11.2
10.4
9.6
8.9
8.3
7.6
7.0
6.5
6.0
5.5
5.1
4.7
4.4
4.0
3.7
3.4
3.2
2.9
2.7
2.5
2.3
2.1
1.9
1.8
1.6
1.5
1.4
1.3
1.2
1.1
1.0
0.9
933.2
Test 3a VOC (+13%) Fuel (+20%), 6 segments
Key assumptions
- Growth from 2015 to 2030 interpolated from model-year results
- Growth rate beyond 2030 assumed decreasing 0.1% per annum to 1%
- Revenue growth is capped by capacity of individual HOT lane sections
- Ramp-up of revenue assumed:
60% year 1
85% year 2
100% year 3 onwards
Adjusted for Southern Section:
86% year 1
95% year 2
100% year 3 onwards
- Model revenue 2005 prices increased to 2008 prices using CPI-U
194.4 : 2005 Jan-Sep
216.0 : 2008 Jan-Sep
11.1% : 2005 Jan-Sep to 2008 Jan-Sep
- Discount rate to 2008 prices :
9%
- 2015 & 2030 Value of Time escalation based on growth in GDP
0.75 x forecast increase in GDP per capita:
1.0952 : 2005 to 2015
1.2989 : 2005 to 2030
144
I-95/I-395 HOT Lane
Appendix F
Revenue Stream – Test 3a – SOUTHERN SECTION
Year
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
2030
2031
2032
2033
2034
2035
2036
2037
2038
2039
2040
2041
2042
2043
2044
2045
2046
2047
2048
2049
2050
2051
2052
2053
2054
2055
2056
2057
2058
2059
2060
2061
2062
2063
2064
2065
2066
2067
2068
2069
2070
2071
Total
Unramped
Revenue
2008 $M
12.6
13.3
14.1
14.9
15.6
16.4
17.1
17.9
18.6
19.4
20.1
20.9
21.7
22.4
23.2
23.9
24.5
25.1
25.6
26.2
26.7
27.2
27.7
28.1
28.6
29.0
29.3
29.7
30.0
30.4
30.6
30.9
31.2
31.5
31.8
32.1
32.4
32.8
33.1
33.3
33.6
34.0
34.3
34.6
34.9
35.2
35.5
35.8
36.2
36.5
36.8
37.1
37.5
37.8
38.2
38.5
38.8
1,615.2
HOT Traffic
Growth
post 2030 pa
3.9%
3.7%
3.6%
3.5%
3.4%
3.2%
3.1%
3.1%
3.0%
2.9%
2.8%
2.7%
2.6%
2.6%
2.5%
2.4%
2.3%
2.2%
2.1%
2.0%
1.9%
1.8%
1.7%
1.6%
1.5%
1.4%
1.3%
1.2%
1.1%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
Discounted
& Ramped
Revenue
2008 $M
6.0
6.4
6.5
6.3
6.0
5.8
5.6
5.3
5.1
4.9
4.7
4.4
4.2
4.0
3.8
3.6
3.4
3.2
3.0
2.8
2.6
2.4
2.3
2.1
2.0
1.8
1.7
1.6
1.5
1.4
1.3
1.2
1.1
1.0
0.9
0.9
0.8
0.7
0.7
0.6
0.6
0.5
0.5
0.5
0.4
0.4
0.4
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
129.2
Test 3a VOC (+13%) Fuel (+20%), 6 segments
Key assumptions
- Growth from 2015 to 2030 interpolated from model-year results
- Growth rate beyond 2030 assumed decreasing 0.1% per annum to 1%
- Revenue growth is capped by capacity of individual HOT lane sections
- Ramp-up of revenue assumed:
60% year 1
85% year 2
100% year 3 onwards
Adjusted for Southern Section:
86% year 1
95% year 2
100% year 3 onwards
- Model revenue 2005 prices increased to 2008 prices using CPI-U
194.4 : 2005 Jan-Sep
216.0 : 2008 Jan-Sep
11.1% : 2005 Jan-Sep to 2008 Jan-Sep
- Discount rate to 2008 prices :
9%
- 2015 & 2030 Value of Time escalation based on growth in GDP
0.75 x forecast increase in GDP per capita:
1.0952 : 2005 to 2015
1.2989 : 2005 to 2030
145
I-95/I-395 HOT Lane
Appendix F
Revenue Stream – Test 3b – ALL
Year
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
2030
2031
2032
2033
2034
2035
2036
2037
2038
2039
2040
2041
2042
2043
2044
2045
2046
2047
2048
2049
2050
2051
2052
2053
2054
2055
2056
2057
2058
2059
2060
2061
2062
2063
2064
2065
2066
2067
2068
2069
2070
2071
Total
Unramped
Revenue
2008 $M
72.9
77.6
82.3
118.6
125.2
131.8
138.4
145.0
151.6
158.2
164.8
171.3
177.9
184.5
191.1
197.7
204.3
210.9
217.5
222.3
226.8
231.2
235.2
238.9
242.5
245.9
249.2
252.2
255.1
257.7
260.0
262.1
264.0
266.0
267.8
269.7
271.6
273.5
275.3
277.1
278.9
280.6
282.3
283.8
285.4
287.0
288.5
290.1
291.7
293.3
294.9
296.6
298.2
299.9
301.5
303.2
304.8
306.4
308.0
309.6
14,150.3
HOT Traffic
Growth
post 2030 pa
3.6%
3.5%
3.4%
3.3%
3.2%
3.1%
3.0%
2.9%
2.8%
2.7%
2.7%
2.6%
2.5%
2.5%
2.4%
2.3%
2.2%
2.1%
2.0%
1.9%
1.8%
1.7%
1.6%
1.5%
1.4%
1.3%
1.2%
1.1%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
Discounted
& Ramped
Revenue
2008 $M
31.0
42.9
49.1
63.7
62.4
60.7
58.5
56.2
53.9
51.6
49.3
47.0
44.8
42.6
40.5
38.4
36.5
34.5
32.7
30.6
28.7
26.8
25.0
23.3
21.7
20.2
18.8
17.4
16.2
15.0
13.9
12.8
11.9
11.0
10.1
9.4
8.6
8.0
7.4
6.8
6.3
5.8
5.4
4.9
4.6
4.2
3.9
3.6
3.3
3.0
2.8
2.6
2.4
2.2
2.0
1.9
1.7
1.6
1.5
1.4
1,304.9
Test 3b VOC (-13%) Fuel (-20%), 6 segments
Key assumptions
- Growth from 2015 to 2030 interpolated from model-year results
- Growth rate beyond 2030 assumed decreasing 0.1% per annum to 1%
- Revenue growth is capped by capacity of individual HOT lane sections
- Ramp-up of revenue assumed:
60% year 1
85% year 2
100% year 3 onwards
Adjusted for Southern Section:
86% year 1
95% year 2
100% year 3 onwards
- Model revenue 2005 prices increased to 2008 prices using CPI-U
194.4 : 2005 Jan-Sep
216.0 : 2008 Jan-Sep
11.1% : 2005 Jan-Sep to 2008 Jan-Sep
- Discount rate to 2008 prices :
9%
- 2015 & 2030 Value of Time escalation based on growth in GDP
0.75 x forecast increase in GDP per capita:
1.0952 : 2005 to 2015
1.2989 : 2005 to 2030
146
I-95/I-395 HOT Lane
Appendix F
Revenue Stream – Test 3b – NORTHERN SECTION
Year
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
2030
2031
2032
2033
2034
2035
2036
2037
2038
2039
2040
2041
2042
2043
2044
2045
2046
2047
2048
2049
2050
2051
2052
2053
2054
2055
2056
2057
2058
2059
2060
2061
2062
2063
2064
2065
2066
2067
2068
2069
2070
2071
Total
Unramped
Revenue
2008 $M
72.9
77.6
82.3
103.0
108.6
114.2
119.8
125.4
131.0
136.6
142.2
147.8
153.4
159.0
164.6
170.2
175.8
181.4
187.0
191.1
194.9
198.7
202.0
205.1
208.1
211.0
213.7
216.2
218.6
220.8
222.7
224.4
225.9
227.5
229.0
230.6
232.1
233.6
235.0
236.5
237.9
239.3
240.7
241.9
243.2
244.4
245.6
246.8
248.1
249.4
250.6
251.9
253.2
254.6
255.9
257.2
258.5
259.9
261.2
262.5
12,132.9
HOT Traffic
Growth
post 2030 pa
3.6%
3.5%
3.4%
3.3%
3.2%
3.1%
3.0%
2.9%
2.8%
2.7%
2.7%
2.6%
2.5%
2.5%
2.4%
2.3%
2.2%
2.1%
2.0%
1.9%
1.8%
1.7%
1.6%
1.5%
1.4%
1.3%
1.2%
1.1%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
Discounted
& Ramped
Revenue
2008 $M
31.0
42.9
49.1
56.4
54.5
52.6
50.6
48.6
46.6
44.6
42.6
40.6
38.6
36.7
34.9
33.1
31.4
29.7
28.1
26.3
24.6
23.0
21.5
20.0
18.6
17.3
16.1
15.0
13.9
12.8
11.9
11.0
10.2
9.4
8.7
8.0
7.4
6.8
6.3
5.8
5.4
5.0
4.6
4.2
3.9
3.6
3.3
3.0
2.8
2.6
2.4
2.2
2.0
1.9
1.7
1.6
1.5
1.4
1.2
1.2
1,142.3
Test 3b VOC (-13%) Fuel (-20%), 6 segments
Key assumptions
- Growth from 2015 to 2030 interpolated from model-year results
- Growth rate beyond 2030 assumed decreasing 0.1% per annum to 1%
- Revenue growth is capped by capacity of individual HOT lane sections
- Ramp-up of revenue assumed:
60% year 1
85% year 2
100% year 3 onwards
Adjusted for Southern Section:
86% year 1
95% year 2
100% year 3 onwards
- Model revenue 2005 prices increased to 2008 prices using CPI-U
194.4 : 2005 Jan-Sep
216.0 : 2008 Jan-Sep
11.1% : 2005 Jan-Sep to 2008 Jan-Sep
- Discount rate to 2008 prices :
9%
- 2015 & 2030 Value of Time escalation based on growth in GDP
0.75 x forecast increase in GDP per capita:
1.0952 : 2005 to 2015
1.2989 : 2005 to 2030
147
I-95/I-395 HOT Lane
Appendix F
Revenue Stream – Test 3b – SOUTHERN SECTION
Year
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
2030
2031
2032
2033
2034
2035
2036
2037
2038
2039
2040
2041
2042
2043
2044
2045
2046
2047
2048
2049
2050
2051
2052
2053
2054
2055
2056
2057
2058
2059
2060
2061
2062
2063
2064
2065
2066
2067
2068
2069
2070
2071
Total
Unramped
Revenue
2008 $M
15.6
16.6
17.6
18.6
19.6
20.6
21.6
22.6
23.6
24.5
25.5
26.5
27.5
28.5
29.5
30.5
31.2
31.9
32.6
33.2
33.8
34.4
34.9
35.5
36.0
36.5
36.9
37.3
37.7
38.1
38.4
38.8
39.2
39.5
39.9
40.3
40.6
40.9
41.3
41.6
41.9
42.2
42.6
42.9
43.2
43.6
43.9
44.3
44.6
45.0
45.3
45.6
45.9
46.2
46.5
46.8
47.1
2,017.4
HOT Traffic
Growth
post 2030 pa
3.6%
3.5%
3.4%
3.3%
3.2%
3.1%
3.0%
2.9%
2.8%
2.7%
2.7%
2.6%
2.5%
2.5%
2.4%
2.3%
2.2%
2.1%
2.0%
1.9%
1.8%
1.7%
1.6%
1.5%
1.4%
1.3%
1.2%
1.1%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
Discounted
& Ramped
Revenue
2008 $M
7.4
7.9
8.1
7.9
7.6
7.3
7.0
6.8
6.5
6.2
5.9
5.6
5.4
5.1
4.8
4.6
4.3
4.0
3.8
3.5
3.3
3.1
2.9
2.7
2.5
2.3
2.1
2.0
1.8
1.7
1.6
1.5
1.4
1.3
1.2
1.1
1.0
0.9
0.9
0.8
0.7
0.7
0.6
0.6
0.5
0.5
0.5
0.4
0.4
0.4
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.2
0.2
0.2
162.6
Test 3b VOC (-13%) Fuel (-20%), 6 segments
Key assumptions
- Growth from 2015 to 2030 interpolated from model-year results
- Growth rate beyond 2030 assumed decreasing 0.1% per annum to 1%
- Revenue growth is capped by capacity of individual HOT lane sections
- Ramp-up of revenue assumed:
60% year 1
85% year 2
100% year 3 onwards
Adjusted for Southern Section:
86% year 1
95% year 2
100% year 3 onwards
- Model revenue 2005 prices increased to 2008 prices using CPI-U
194.4 : 2005 Jan-Sep
216.0 : 2008 Jan-Sep
11.1% : 2005 Jan-Sep to 2008 Jan-Sep
- Discount rate to 2008 prices :
9%
- 2015 & 2030 Value of Time escalation based on growth in GDP
0.75 x forecast increase in GDP per capita:
1.0952 : 2005 to 2015
1.2989 : 2005 to 2030
148
I-95/I-395 HOT Lane
Appendix F
Revenue Stream – Test 4a – ALL
Year
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
2030
2031
2032
2033
2034
2035
2036
2037
2038
2039
2040
2041
2042
2043
2044
2045
2046
2047
2048
2049
2050
2051
2052
2053
2054
2055
2056
2057
2058
2059
2060
2061
2062
2063
2064
2065
2066
2067
2068
2069
2070
2071
Total
Unramped
Revenue
2008 $M
70.1
75.7
81.4
86.8
92.4
98.1
103.7
109.4
115.0
120.7
126.3
132.0
137.6
143.2
148.9
154.5
160.2
165.8
171.5
176.0
180.4
184.7
188.6
192.2
195.8
199.2
202.2
205.0
207.8
210.5
212.8
214.9
217.0
218.9
220.5
221.9
223.4
224.9
226.4
228.0
229.4
230.9
232.5
234.0
235.5
237.0
238.5
239.9
241.2
242.5
243.8
245.1
246.3
247.6
248.8
250.0
251.1
252.1
253.1
254.1
11,497.6
HOT Traffic
Growth
post 2030 pa
4.4%
4.2%
4.1%
3.9%
3.8%
3.6%
3.5%
3.4%
3.3%
3.2%
3.1%
3.0%
2.9%
2.8%
2.7%
2.6%
2.5%
2.4%
2.3%
2.2%
2.1%
2.0%
1.9%
1.8%
1.7%
1.6%
1.5%
1.4%
1.3%
1.2%
1.1%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
Discounted
& Ramped
Revenue
2008 $M
29.8
41.8
48.5
46.6
46.1
45.2
43.8
42.4
40.9
39.4
37.8
36.2
34.7
33.1
31.6
30.1
28.6
27.1
25.8
24.2
22.8
21.4
20.1
18.8
17.5
16.4
15.2
14.2
13.2
12.3
11.4
10.5
9.8
9.0
8.3
7.7
7.1
6.6
6.1
5.6
5.2
4.8
4.4
4.1
3.8
3.5
3.2
3.0
2.7
2.5
2.3
2.1
2.0
1.8
1.7
1.5
1.4
1.3
1.2
1.1
1,041.0
Test 4a VOT (-20%), 6 segments
Key assumptions
- Growth from 2015 to 2030 interpolated from model-year results
- Growth rate beyond 2030 assumed decreasing 0.1% per annum to 1%
- Revenue growth is capped by capacity of individual HOT lane sections
- Ramp-up of revenue assumed:
60% year 1
85% year 2
100% year 3 onwards
Adjusted for Southern Section:
86% year 1
95% year 2
100% year 3 onwards
- Model revenue 2005 prices increased to 2008 prices using CPI-U
194.4 : 2005 Jan-Sep
216.0 : 2008 Jan-Sep
11.1% : 2005 Jan-Sep to 2008 Jan-Sep
- Discount rate to 2008 prices :
9%
- 2015 & 2030 Value of Time escalation based on growth in GDP
0.75 x forecast increase in GDP per capita:
1.0952 : 2005 to 2015
1.2989 : 2005 to 2030
149
I-95/I-395 HOT Lane
Appendix F
Revenue Stream – Test 4a – NORTHERN SECTION
Year
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
2030
2031
2032
2033
2034
2035
2036
2037
2038
2039
2040
2041
2042
2043
2044
2045
2046
2047
2048
2049
2050
2051
2052
2053
2054
2055
2056
2057
2058
2059
2060
2061
2062
2063
2064
2065
2066
2067
2068
2069
2070
2071
Total
Unramped
Revenue
2008 $M
70.1
75.7
81.4
74.6
79.5
84.3
89.2
94.1
98.9
103.8
108.6
113.5
118.3
123.2
128.1
132.9
137.8
142.6
147.5
151.4
155.2
158.8
162.1
165.2
168.1
171.0
173.5
175.8
178.2
180.4
182.2
184.0
185.6
187.1
188.4
189.6
190.8
192.0
193.2
194.4
195.6
196.8
198.0
199.1
200.3
201.5
202.7
203.7
204.7
205.7
206.7
207.6
208.5
209.5
210.3
211.1
211.8
212.6
213.2
213.9
9,844.1
HOT Traffic
Growth
post 2030 pa
4.4%
4.2%
4.1%
3.9%
3.8%
3.6%
3.5%
3.4%
3.3%
3.2%
3.1%
3.0%
2.9%
2.8%
2.7%
2.6%
2.5%
2.4%
2.3%
2.2%
2.1%
2.0%
1.9%
1.8%
1.7%
1.6%
1.5%
1.4%
1.3%
1.2%
1.1%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
Discounted
& Ramped
Revenue
2008 $M
29.8
41.8
48.5
40.8
39.9
38.8
37.7
36.5
35.2
33.8
32.5
31.2
29.8
28.5
27.1
25.8
24.6
23.3
22.1
20.9
19.6
18.4
17.2
16.1
15.1
14.0
13.1
12.2
11.3
10.5
9.7
9.0
8.3
7.7
7.1
6.6
6.1
5.6
5.2
4.8
4.4
4.1
3.8
3.5
3.2
3.0
2.7
2.5
2.3
2.1
2.0
1.8
1.7
1.5
1.4
1.3
1.2
1.1
1.0
0.9
911.9
Test 4a VOT (-20%), 6 segments
Key assumptions
- Growth from 2015 to 2030 interpolated from model-year results
- Growth rate beyond 2030 assumed decreasing 0.1% per annum to 1%
- Revenue growth is capped by capacity of individual HOT lane sections
- Ramp-up of revenue assumed:
60% year 1
85% year 2
100% year 3 onwards
Adjusted for Southern Section:
86% year 1
95% year 2
100% year 3 onwards
- Model revenue 2005 prices increased to 2008 prices using CPI-U
194.4 : 2005 Jan-Sep
216.0 : 2008 Jan-Sep
11.1% : 2005 Jan-Sep to 2008 Jan-Sep
- Discount rate to 2008 prices :
9%
- 2015 & 2030 Value of Time escalation based on growth in GDP
0.75 x forecast increase in GDP per capita:
1.0952 : 2005 to 2015
1.2989 : 2005 to 2030
150
I-95/I-395 HOT Lane
Appendix F
Revenue Stream – Test 4a – SOUTHERN SECTION
Year
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
2030
2031
2032
2033
2034
2035
2036
2037
2038
2039
2040
2041
2042
2043
2044
2045
2046
2047
2048
2049
2050
2051
2052
2053
2054
2055
2056
2057
2058
2059
2060
2061
2062
2063
2064
2065
2066
2067
2068
2069
2070
2071
Total
Unramped
Revenue
2008 $M
12.2
13.0
13.7
14.5
15.3
16.1
16.9
17.7
18.5
19.3
20.0
20.8
21.6
22.4
23.2
24.0
24.6
25.2
25.9
26.5
27.1
27.6
28.2
28.7
29.2
29.7
30.1
30.6
31.0
31.4
31.7
32.1
32.4
32.7
33.0
33.3
33.6
33.9
34.2
34.5
34.8
35.1
35.5
35.8
36.1
36.5
36.8
37.1
37.5
37.8
38.2
38.5
38.9
39.2
39.6
39.9
40.2
1,653.6
HOT Traffic
Growth
post 2030 pa
4.4%
4.2%
4.1%
3.9%
3.8%
3.6%
3.5%
3.4%
3.3%
3.2%
3.1%
3.0%
2.9%
2.8%
2.7%
2.6%
2.5%
2.4%
2.3%
2.2%
2.1%
2.0%
1.9%
1.8%
1.7%
1.6%
1.5%
1.4%
1.3%
1.2%
1.1%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
Discounted
& Ramped
Revenue
2008 $M
5.8
6.2
6.3
6.1
5.9
5.7
5.5
5.3
5.1
4.9
4.6
4.4
4.2
4.0
3.8
3.6
3.4
3.2
3.0
2.8
2.6
2.5
2.3
2.2
2.0
1.9
1.8
1.6
1.5
1.4
1.3
1.2
1.1
1.0
1.0
0.9
0.8
0.8
0.7
0.7
0.6
0.6
0.5
0.5
0.4
0.4
0.4
0.4
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
129.1
Test 4a VOT (-20%), 6 segments
Key assumptions
- Growth from 2015 to 2030 interpolated from model-year results
- Growth rate beyond 2030 assumed decreasing 0.1% per annum to 1%
- Revenue growth is capped by capacity of individual HOT lane sections
- Ramp-up of revenue assumed:
60% year 1
85% year 2
100% year 3 onwards
Adjusted for Southern Section:
86% year 1
95% year 2
100% year 3 onwards
- Model revenue 2005 prices increased to 2008 prices using CPI-U
194.4 : 2005 Jan-Sep
216.0 : 2008 Jan-Sep
11.1% : 2005 Jan-Sep to 2008 Jan-Sep
- Discount rate to 2008 prices :
9%
- 2015 & 2030 Value of Time escalation based on growth in GDP
0.75 x forecast increase in GDP per capita:
1.0952 : 2005 to 2015
1.2989 : 2005 to 2030
151
I-95/I-395 HOT Lane
Appendix F
Revenue Stream – Test 4b – ALL
Year
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
2030
2031
2032
2033
2034
2035
2036
2037
2038
2039
2040
2041
2042
2043
2044
2045
2046
2047
2048
2049
2050
2051
2052
2053
2054
2055
2056
2057
2058
2059
2060
2061
2062
2063
2064
2065
2066
2067
2068
2069
2070
2071
Total
Unramped
Revenue
2008 $M
72.9
77.6
82.3
115.2
121.5
127.9
134.2
140.5
146.9
153.2
159.5
165.9
172.2
178.5
184.8
191.2
197.5
203.8
210.2
215.0
219.5
223.8
227.9
231.6
235.1
238.3
241.4
244.2
247.0
249.5
251.9
254.0
256.0
257.9
259.8
261.6
263.5
265.4
267.2
269.0
270.8
272.7
274.6
276.3
278.0
279.7
281.3
282.9
284.5
286.1
287.6
289.2
290.7
292.3
293.9
295.4
297.0
298.5
300.0
301.6
13,748.9
HOT Traffic
Growth
post 2030 pa
3.6%
3.5%
3.3%
3.2%
3.1%
3.0%
3.0%
2.9%
2.8%
2.7%
2.6%
2.6%
2.5%
2.4%
2.4%
2.3%
2.2%
2.1%
2.0%
1.9%
1.8%
1.7%
1.6%
1.5%
1.4%
1.3%
1.2%
1.1%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
Discounted
& Ramped
Revenue
2008 $M
31.0
42.9
49.1
61.9
60.6
58.9
56.7
54.5
52.2
50.0
47.7
45.5
43.4
41.3
39.2
37.2
35.2
33.4
31.6
29.6
27.7
26.0
24.2
22.6
21.1
19.6
18.2
16.9
15.7
14.5
13.4
12.4
11.5
10.6
9.8
9.1
8.4
7.8
7.2
6.6
6.1
5.6
5.2
4.8
4.4
4.1
3.8
3.5
3.2
3.0
2.7
2.5
2.3
2.2
2.0
1.8
1.7
1.6
1.4
1.3
1,268.4
Test 4b VOT (+20%), 6 segments
Key assumptions
- Growth from 2015 to 2030 interpolated from model-year results
- Growth rate beyond 2030 assumed decreasing 0.1% per annum to 1%
- Revenue growth is capped by capacity of individual HOT lane sections
- Ramp-up of revenue assumed:
60% year 1
85% year 2
100% year 3 onwards
Adjusted for Southern Section:
86% year 1
95% year 2
100% year 3 onwards
- Model revenue 2005 prices increased to 2008 prices using CPI-U
194.4 : 2005 Jan-Sep
216.0 : 2008 Jan-Sep
11.1% : 2005 Jan-Sep to 2008 Jan-Sep
- Discount rate to 2008 prices :
9%
- 2015 & 2030 Value of Time escalation based on growth in GDP
0.75 x forecast increase in GDP per capita:
1.0952 : 2005 to 2015
1.2989 : 2005 to 2030
152
I-95/I-395 HOT Lane
Appendix F
Revenue Stream – Test 4b – NORTHERN SECTION
Year
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
2030
2031
2032
2033
2034
2035
2036
2037
2038
2039
2040
2041
2042
2043
2044
2045
2046
2047
2048
2049
2050
2051
2052
2053
2054
2055
2056
2057
2058
2059
2060
2061
2062
2063
2064
2065
2066
2067
2068
2069
2070
2071
Total
Unramped
Revenue
2008 $M
72.9
77.6
82.3
100.1
105.5
110.9
116.3
121.7
127.1
132.6
138.0
143.4
148.8
154.2
159.6
165.0
170.4
175.8
181.2
185.4
189.2
192.9
196.4
199.5
202.4
205.1
207.7
210.1
212.4
214.5
216.5
218.3
219.9
221.5
223.0
224.5
226.0
227.5
229.0
230.5
232.0
233.5
235.0
236.4
237.7
239.1
240.4
241.7
243.0
244.3
245.5
246.7
248.0
249.2
250.5
251.7
252.9
254.1
255.3
256.5
11,828.8
HOT Traffic
Growth
post 2030 pa
3.6%
3.5%
3.3%
3.2%
3.1%
3.0%
3.0%
2.9%
2.8%
2.7%
2.6%
2.6%
2.5%
2.4%
2.4%
2.3%
2.2%
2.1%
2.0%
1.9%
1.8%
1.7%
1.6%
1.5%
1.4%
1.3%
1.2%
1.1%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
Discounted
& Ramped
Revenue
2008 $M
31.0
42.9
49.1
54.8
53.0
51.1
49.1
47.2
45.2
43.2
41.3
39.4
37.5
35.6
33.8
32.1
30.4
28.8
27.2
25.5
23.9
22.4
20.9
19.5
18.1
16.8
15.7
14.5
13.5
12.5
11.6
10.7
9.9
9.1
8.4
7.8
7.2
6.6
6.1
5.7
5.2
4.8
4.5
4.1
3.8
3.5
3.2
3.0
2.8
2.5
2.3
2.2
2.0
1.8
1.7
1.6
1.4
1.3
1.2
1.1
1,113.2
Test 4b VOT (+20%), 6 segments
Key assumptions
- Growth from 2015 to 2030 interpolated from model-year results
- Growth rate beyond 2030 assumed decreasing 0.1% per annum to 1%
- Revenue growth is capped by capacity of individual HOT lane sections
- Ramp-up of revenue assumed:
60% year 1
85% year 2
100% year 3 onwards
Adjusted for Southern Section:
86% year 1
95% year 2
100% year 3 onwards
- Model revenue 2005 prices increased to 2008 prices using CPI-U
194.4 : 2005 Jan-Sep
216.0 : 2008 Jan-Sep
11.1% : 2005 Jan-Sep to 2008 Jan-Sep
- Discount rate to 2008 prices :
9%
- 2015 & 2030 Value of Time escalation based on growth in GDP
0.75 x forecast increase in GDP per capita:
1.0952 : 2005 to 2015
1.2989 : 2005 to 2030
153
I-95/I-395 HOT Lane
Appendix F
Revenue Stream – Test 4b – SOUTHERN SECTION
Year
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
2030
2031
2032
2033
2034
2035
2036
2037
2038
2039
2040
2041
2042
2043
2044
2045
2046
2047
2048
2049
2050
2051
2052
2053
2054
2055
2056
2057
2058
2059
2060
2061
2062
2063
2064
2065
2066
2067
2068
2069
2070
2071
Total
Unramped
Revenue
2008 $M
15.1
16.0
17.0
17.9
18.8
19.7
20.6
21.6
22.5
23.4
24.3
25.3
26.2
27.1
28.0
29.0
29.6
30.3
30.9
31.5
32.1
32.7
33.2
33.7
34.2
34.6
35.0
35.4
35.8
36.1
36.4
36.8
37.1
37.5
37.8
38.2
38.5
38.9
39.2
39.6
40.0
40.3
40.6
40.9
41.2
41.5
41.8
42.1
42.5
42.8
43.1
43.4
43.8
44.1
44.5
44.7
45.0
1,920.0
HOT Traffic
Growth
post 2030 pa
3.6%
3.5%
3.3%
3.2%
3.1%
3.0%
3.0%
2.9%
2.8%
2.7%
2.6%
2.6%
2.5%
2.4%
2.4%
2.3%
2.2%
2.1%
2.0%
1.9%
1.8%
1.7%
1.6%
1.5%
1.4%
1.3%
1.2%
1.1%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
Discounted
& Ramped
Revenue
2008 $M
7.1
7.6
7.8
7.6
7.3
7.0
6.7
6.5
6.2
5.9
5.6
5.4
5.1
4.8
4.6
4.3
4.1
3.8
3.6
3.4
3.1
2.9
2.7
2.5
2.4
2.2
2.0
1.9
1.8
1.6
1.5
1.4
1.3
1.2
1.1
1.0
0.9
0.9
0.8
0.8
0.7
0.6
0.6
0.5
0.5
0.5
0.4
0.4
0.4
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.2
0.2
0.2
155.3
Test 4b VOT (+20%), 6 segments
Key assumptions
- Growth from 2015 to 2030 interpolated from model-year results
- Growth rate beyond 2030 assumed decreasing 0.1% per annum to 1%
- Revenue growth is capped by capacity of individual HOT lane sections
- Ramp-up of revenue assumed:
60% year 1
85% year 2
100% year 3 onwards
Adjusted for Southern Section:
86% year 1
95% year 2
100% year 3 onwards
- Model revenue 2005 prices increased to 2008 prices using CPI-U
194.4 : 2005 Jan-Sep
216.0 : 2008 Jan-Sep
11.1% : 2005 Jan-Sep to 2008 Jan-Sep
- Discount rate to 2008 prices :
9%
- 2015 & 2030 Value of Time escalation based on growth in GDP
0.75 x forecast increase in GDP per capita:
1.0952 : 2005 to 2015
1.2989 : 2005 to 2030
154
I-95/I-395 HOT Lane
Appendix F
Revenue Stream – Test 5a – ALL
Year
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
2030
2031
2032
2033
2034
2035
2036
2037
2038
2039
2040
2041
2042
2043
2044
2045
2046
2047
2048
2049
2050
2051
2052
2053
2054
2055
2056
2057
2058
2059
2060
2061
2062
2063
2064
2065
2066
2067
2068
2069
2070
2071
Total
Unramped
Revenue
2008 $M
71.7
76.8
81.9
107.0
113.4
119.7
126.0
132.4
138.7
145.0
151.4
157.7
164.0
170.4
176.7
183.0
189.4
195.7
202.0
206.9
211.5
216.0
220.2
224.2
228.0
231.4
234.6
237.6
240.4
243.0
245.5
247.9
250.0
251.9
253.9
255.9
257.8
259.7
261.5
263.3
265.1
267.0
268.8
270.5
272.3
274.0
275.7
277.3
278.8
280.3
281.8
283.3
284.8
286.3
287.7
289.2
290.6
292.1
293.6
295.1
13,358.6
HOT Traffic
Growth
post 2030 pa
3.9%
3.8%
3.7%
3.5%
3.4%
3.3%
3.2%
3.1%
3.0%
2.9%
2.8%
2.8%
2.7%
2.6%
2.5%
2.4%
2.3%
2.2%
2.1%
2.0%
1.9%
1.8%
1.7%
1.6%
1.5%
1.4%
1.3%
1.2%
1.1%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
Discounted
& Ramped
Revenue
2008 $M
30.5
42.4
48.9
57.5
56.5
55.1
53.2
51.3
49.3
47.3
45.3
43.3
41.3
39.4
37.5
35.6
33.8
32.0
30.3
28.5
26.7
25.0
23.4
21.9
20.4
19.0
17.7
16.4
15.2
14.1
13.1
12.1
11.2
10.4
9.6
8.9
8.2
7.6
7.0
6.5
6.0
5.5
5.1
4.7
4.4
4.0
3.7
3.4
3.2
2.9
2.7
2.5
2.3
2.1
1.9
1.8
1.7
1.5
1.4
1.3
1,215.8
Toll Schedule v1, 6 segments - Test 5a
Key assumptions
- Growth from 2015 to 2030 interpolated from model-year results
- Growth rate beyond 2030 assumed decreasing 0.1% per annum to 1%
- Revenue growth is capped by capacity of individual HOT lane sections
- Ramp-up of revenue assumed:
60% year 1
85% year 2
100% year 3 onwards
Adjusted for Southern Section:
86% year 1
95% year 2
100% year 3 onwards
- Model revenue 2005 prices increased to 2008 prices using CPI-U
194.4 : 2005 Jan-Sep
216.0 : 2008 Jan-Sep
11.1% : 2005 Jan-Sep to 2008 Jan-Sep
- Discount rate to 2008 prices :
9%
- 2015 & 2030 Value of Time escalation based on growth in GDP
0.75 x forecast increase in GDP per capita:
1.0952 : 2005 to 2015
1.2989 : 2005 to 2030
155
I-95/I-395 HOT Lane
Appendix F
Revenue Stream – Test 5a – NORTHERN SECTION
Year
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
2030
2031
2032
2033
2034
2035
2036
2037
2038
2039
2040
2041
2042
2043
2044
2045
2046
2047
2048
2049
2050
2051
2052
2053
2054
2055
2056
2057
2058
2059
2060
2061
2062
2063
2064
2065
2066
2067
2068
2069
2070
2071
Total
Unramped
Revenue
2008 $M
71.7
76.8
81.9
92.9
98.3
103.8
109.2
114.6
120.1
125.5
131.0
136.4
141.9
147.3
152.7
158.2
163.6
169.1
174.5
178.7
182.7
186.5
190.1
193.6
196.8
199.7
202.4
204.9
207.2
209.5
211.6
213.5
215.3
216.9
218.6
220.2
221.8
223.4
224.8
226.3
227.8
229.3
230.7
232.2
233.6
234.9
236.3
237.6
238.8
240.0
241.2
242.4
243.5
244.7
245.8
247.0
248.1
249.3
250.4
251.6
11,519.4
HOT Traffic
Growth
post 2030 pa
3.9%
3.8%
3.7%
3.5%
3.4%
3.3%
3.2%
3.1%
3.0%
2.9%
2.8%
2.8%
2.7%
2.6%
2.5%
2.4%
2.3%
2.2%
2.1%
2.0%
1.9%
1.8%
1.7%
1.6%
1.5%
1.4%
1.3%
1.2%
1.1%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
Discounted
& Ramped
Revenue
2008 $M
30.5
42.4
48.9
50.8
49.3
47.8
46.1
44.4
42.7
40.9
39.2
37.5
35.7
34.0
32.4
30.8
29.2
27.7
26.2
24.6
23.1
21.6
20.2
18.9
17.6
16.4
15.3
14.2
13.1
12.2
11.3
10.5
9.7
8.9
8.3
7.6
7.1
6.5
6.0
5.6
5.1
4.7
4.4
4.0
3.7
3.4
3.2
2.9
2.7
2.5
2.3
2.1
2.0
1.8
1.7
1.5
1.4
1.3
1.2
1.1
1,068.5
Toll Schedule v1, 6 segments - Test 5a
Key assumptions
- Growth from 2015 to 2030 interpolated from model-year results
- Growth rate beyond 2030 assumed decreasing 0.1% per annum to 1%
- Revenue growth is capped by capacity of individual HOT lane sections
- Ramp-up of revenue assumed:
60% year 1
85% year 2
100% year 3 onwards
Adjusted for Southern Section:
86% year 1
95% year 2
100% year 3 onwards
- Model revenue 2005 prices increased to 2008 prices using CPI-U
194.4 : 2005 Jan-Sep
216.0 : 2008 Jan-Sep
11.1% : 2005 Jan-Sep to 2008 Jan-Sep
- Discount rate to 2008 prices :
9%
- 2015 & 2030 Value of Time escalation based on growth in GDP
0.75 x forecast increase in GDP per capita:
1.0952 : 2005 to 2015
1.2989 : 2005 to 2030
156
I-95/I-395 HOT Lane
Appendix F
Revenue Stream – Test 5a – SOUTHERN SECTION
Year
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
2030
2031
2032
2033
2034
2035
2036
2037
2038
2039
2040
2041
2042
2043
2044
2045
2046
2047
2048
2049
2050
2051
2052
2053
2054
2055
2056
2057
2058
2059
2060
2061
2062
2063
2064
2065
2066
2067
2068
2069
2070
2071
Total
Unramped
Revenue
2008 $M
14.1
15.0
15.9
16.8
17.7
18.6
19.5
20.4
21.3
22.2
23.1
24.0
24.9
25.7
26.6
27.5
28.2
28.8
29.4
30.0
30.6
31.1
31.7
32.2
32.7
33.1
33.6
34.0
34.3
34.7
35.0
35.3
35.7
36.0
36.3
36.7
37.0
37.3
37.7
38.0
38.4
38.7
39.1
39.5
39.7
40.0
40.3
40.6
40.9
41.3
41.6
41.9
42.2
42.5
42.8
43.2
43.5
1,839.2
HOT Traffic
Growth
post 2030 pa
3.9%
3.8%
3.7%
3.5%
3.4%
3.3%
3.2%
3.1%
3.0%
2.9%
2.8%
2.8%
2.7%
2.6%
2.5%
2.4%
2.3%
2.2%
2.1%
2.0%
1.9%
1.8%
1.7%
1.6%
1.5%
1.4%
1.3%
1.2%
1.1%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
Discounted
& Ramped
Revenue
2008 $M
6.7
7.2
7.3
7.1
6.9
6.6
6.4
6.1
5.8
5.6
5.3
5.1
4.8
4.6
4.4
4.1
3.9
3.6
3.4
3.2
3.0
2.8
2.6
2.4
2.3
2.1
2.0
1.8
1.7
1.6
1.4
1.3
1.2
1.1
1.1
1.0
0.9
0.8
0.8
0.7
0.7
0.6
0.6
0.5
0.5
0.5
0.4
0.4
0.4
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
147.3
Toll Schedule v1, 6 segments - Test 5a
Key assumptions
- Growth from 2015 to 2030 interpolated from model-year results
- Growth rate beyond 2030 assumed decreasing 0.1% per annum to 1%
- Revenue growth is capped by capacity of individual HOT lane sections
- Ramp-up of revenue assumed:
60% year 1
85% year 2
100% year 3 onwards
Adjusted for Southern Section:
86% year 1
95% year 2
100% year 3 onwards
- Model revenue 2005 prices increased to 2008 prices using CPI-U
194.4 : 2005 Jan-Sep
216.0 : 2008 Jan-Sep
11.1% : 2005 Jan-Sep to 2008 Jan-Sep
- Discount rate to 2008 prices :
9%
- 2015 & 2030 Value of Time escalation based on growth in GDP
0.75 x forecast increase in GDP per capita:
1.0952 : 2005 to 2015
1.2989 : 2005 to 2030
157
I-95/I-395 HOT Lane
Appendix F
Revenue Stream – Test 5b – ALL
Year
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
2030
2031
2032
2033
2034
2035
2036
2037
2038
2039
2040
2041
2042
2043
2044
2045
2046
2047
2048
2049
2050
2051
2052
2053
2054
2055
2056
2057
2058
2059
2060
2061
2062
2063
2064
2065
2066
2067
2068
2069
2070
2071
Total
Unramped
Revenue
2008 $M
71.4
76.6
81.8
99.2
105.2
111.2
117.2
123.2
129.2
135.2
141.2
147.2
153.2
159.2
165.2
171.2
177.2
183.2
189.2
193.7
198.0
202.0
206.0
209.6
213.1
216.4
219.6
222.3
224.9
227.4
229.6
231.7
233.6
235.4
237.1
238.7
240.3
242.0
243.6
245.3
246.9
248.4
249.9
251.4
252.9
254.4
255.9
257.4
258.8
260.3
261.7
263.0
264.2
265.4
266.6
267.7
268.9
270.0
271.2
272.4
12,455.0
HOT Traffic
Growth
post 2030 pa
4.1%
3.9%
3.7%
3.6%
3.5%
3.4%
3.3%
3.2%
3.1%
3.0%
2.9%
2.8%
2.7%
2.7%
2.6%
2.5%
2.4%
2.3%
2.2%
2.1%
2.0%
1.9%
1.8%
1.7%
1.6%
1.5%
1.4%
1.3%
1.2%
1.1%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
Discounted
& Ramped
Revenue
2008 $M
30.3
42.3
48.8
53.3
52.4
51.2
49.5
47.8
45.9
44.1
42.3
40.4
38.6
36.8
35.0
33.3
31.6
30.0
28.4
26.7
25.0
23.4
21.9
20.5
19.1
17.8
16.5
15.4
14.3
13.2
12.3
11.4
10.5
9.7
9.0
8.3
7.7
7.1
6.5
6.0
5.6
5.1
4.7
4.4
4.0
3.7
3.4
3.2
2.9
2.7
2.5
2.3
2.1
2.0
1.8
1.7
1.5
1.4
1.3
1.2
1,141.9
Toll Schedule v1, 6 segments - Test 5b
Key assumptions
- Growth from 2015 to 2030 interpolated from model-year results
- Growth rate beyond 2030 assumed decreasing 0.1% per annum to 1%
- Revenue growth is capped by capacity of individual HOT lane sections
- Ramp-up of revenue assumed:
60% year 1
85% year 2
100% year 3 onwards
Adjusted for Southern Section:
86% year 1
95% year 2
100% year 3 onwards
- Model revenue 2005 prices increased to 2008 prices using CPI-U
194.4 : 2005 Jan-Sep
216.0 : 2008 Jan-Sep
11.1% : 2005 Jan-Sep to 2008 Jan-Sep
- Discount rate to 2008 prices :
9%
- 2015 & 2030 Value of Time escalation based on growth in GDP
0.75 x forecast increase in GDP per capita:
1.0952 : 2005 to 2015
1.2989 : 2005 to 2030
158
I-95/I-395 HOT Lane
Appendix F
Revenue Stream – Test 5b – NORTHERN SECTION
Year
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
2030
2031
2032
2033
2034
2035
2036
2037
2038
2039
2040
2041
2042
2043
2044
2045
2046
2047
2048
2049
2050
2051
2052
2053
2054
2055
2056
2057
2058
2059
2060
2061
2062
2063
2064
2065
2066
2067
2068
2069
2070
2071
Total
Unramped
Revenue
2008 $M
71.4
76.6
81.8
85.8
91.0
96.1
101.3
106.4
111.6
116.7
121.9
127.0
132.2
137.3
142.5
147.7
152.8
158.0
163.1
167.0
170.7
174.1
177.4
180.5
183.5
186.3
188.9
191.2
193.3
195.4
197.2
198.9
200.5
201.9
203.3
204.6
205.9
207.3
208.6
210.0
211.3
212.5
213.7
214.8
216.0
217.2
218.4
219.5
220.7
221.8
222.8
223.8
224.8
225.6
226.5
227.4
228.3
229.1
230.0
230.9
10,702.8
HOT Traffic
Growth
post 2030 pa
4.1%
3.9%
3.7%
3.6%
3.5%
3.4%
3.3%
3.2%
3.1%
3.0%
2.9%
2.8%
2.7%
2.7%
2.6%
2.5%
2.4%
2.3%
2.2%
2.1%
2.0%
1.9%
1.8%
1.7%
1.6%
1.5%
1.4%
1.3%
1.2%
1.1%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
Discounted
& Ramped
Revenue
2008 $M
30.3
42.3
48.8
46.9
45.6
44.3
42.8
41.2
39.7
38.1
36.5
34.9
33.3
31.7
30.2
28.7
27.3
25.9
24.5
23.0
21.6
20.2
18.9
17.6
16.4
15.3
14.2
13.2
12.3
11.4
10.5
9.7
9.0
8.3
7.7
7.1
6.6
6.1
5.6
5.2
4.8
4.4
4.1
3.7
3.5
3.2
2.9
2.7
2.5
2.3
2.1
2.0
1.8
1.7
1.5
1.4
1.3
1.2
1.1
1.0
1,001.9
Toll Schedule v1, 6 segments - Test 5b
Key assumptions
- Growth from 2015 to 2030 interpolated from model-year results
- Growth rate beyond 2030 assumed decreasing 0.1% per annum to 1%
- Revenue growth is capped by capacity of individual HOT lane sections
- Ramp-up of revenue assumed:
60% year 1
85% year 2
100% year 3 onwards
Adjusted for Southern Section:
86% year 1
95% year 2
100% year 3 onwards
- Model revenue 2005 prices increased to 2008 prices using CPI-U
194.4 : 2005 Jan-Sep
216.0 : 2008 Jan-Sep
11.1% : 2005 Jan-Sep to 2008 Jan-Sep
- Discount rate to 2008 prices :
9%
- 2015 & 2030 Value of Time escalation based on growth in GDP
0.75 x forecast increase in GDP per capita:
1.0952 : 2005 to 2015
1.2989 : 2005 to 2030
159
I-95/I-395 HOT Lane
Appendix F
Revenue Stream – Test 5b – SOUTHERN SECTION
Year
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
2030
2031
2032
2033
2034
2035
2036
2037
2038
2039
2040
2041
2042
2043
2044
2045
2046
2047
2048
2049
2050
2051
2052
2053
2054
2055
2056
2057
2058
2059
2060
2061
2062
2063
2064
2065
2066
2067
2068
2069
2070
2071
Total
Unramped
Revenue
2008 $M
13.4
14.3
15.1
16.0
16.8
17.7
18.5
19.3
20.2
21.0
21.9
22.7
23.6
24.4
25.2
26.1
26.7
27.4
28.0
28.5
29.1
29.6
30.1
30.7
31.1
31.6
32.0
32.5
32.8
33.2
33.5
33.8
34.1
34.4
34.7
35.0
35.3
35.6
35.9
36.2
36.5
36.9
37.2
37.5
37.8
38.2
38.5
38.8
39.2
39.5
39.8
40.0
40.3
40.6
40.9
41.2
41.5
1,752.2
HOT Traffic
Growth
post 2030 pa
4.1%
3.9%
3.7%
3.6%
3.5%
3.4%
3.3%
3.2%
3.1%
3.0%
2.9%
2.8%
2.7%
2.7%
2.6%
2.5%
2.4%
2.3%
2.2%
2.1%
2.0%
1.9%
1.8%
1.7%
1.6%
1.5%
1.4%
1.3%
1.2%
1.1%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
Discounted
& Ramped
Revenue
2008 $M
6.4
6.8
7.0
6.7
6.5
6.3
6.0
5.8
5.5
5.3
5.1
4.8
4.6
4.4
4.1
3.9
3.7
3.5
3.2
3.0
2.8
2.7
2.5
2.3
2.2
2.0
1.9
1.7
1.6
1.5
1.4
1.3
1.2
1.1
1.0
0.9
0.9
0.8
0.7
0.7
0.6
0.6
0.5
0.5
0.5
0.4
0.4
0.4
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
139.9
Toll Schedule v1, 6 segments - Test 5b
Key assumptions
- Growth from 2015 to 2030 interpolated from model-year results
- Growth rate beyond 2030 assumed decreasing 0.1% per annum to 1%
- Revenue growth is capped by capacity of individual HOT lane sections
- Ramp-up of revenue assumed:
60% year 1
85% year 2
100% year 3 onwards
Adjusted for Southern Section:
86% year 1
95% year 2
100% year 3 onwards
- Model revenue 2005 prices increased to 2008 prices using CPI-U
194.4 : 2005 Jan-Sep
216.0 : 2008 Jan-Sep
11.1% : 2005 Jan-Sep to 2008 Jan-Sep
- Discount rate to 2008 prices :
9%
- 2015 & 2030 Value of Time escalation based on growth in GDP
0.75 x forecast increase in GDP per capita:
1.0952 : 2005 to 2015
1.2989 : 2005 to 2030
160
I-95/I-395 HOT Lane
Appendix F
Revenue Stream – Test 6a – ALL
Year
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
2030
2031
2032
2033
2034
2035
2036
2037
2038
2039
2040
2041
2042
2043
2044
2045
2046
2047
2048
2049
2050
2051
2052
2053
2054
2055
2056
2057
2058
2059
2060
2061
2062
2063
2064
2065
2066
2067
2068
2069
2070
2071
Total
Unramped
Revenue
2008 $M
69.2
74.2
79.2
99.9
105.8
111.8
117.8
123.7
129.7
135.6
141.6
147.6
153.5
159.5
165.4
171.4
177.4
183.3
189.3
193.8
198.1
202.2
206.0
209.7
213.2
216.4
219.4
222.2
224.8
227.2
229.5
231.6
233.5
235.3
236.9
238.5
240.2
241.8
243.5
245.0
246.5
248.0
249.5
251.0
252.5
254.0
255.4
256.9
258.3
259.7
260.9
262.1
263.3
264.6
265.8
267.0
268.2
269.4
270.6
271.8
12,440.2
HOT Traffic
Growth
post 2030 pa
4.0%
3.8%
3.7%
3.6%
3.4%
3.3%
3.2%
3.1%
3.0%
2.9%
2.9%
2.8%
2.7%
2.6%
2.6%
2.5%
2.4%
2.3%
2.2%
2.1%
2.0%
1.9%
1.8%
1.7%
1.6%
1.5%
1.4%
1.3%
1.2%
1.1%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
Discounted
& Ramped
Revenue
2008 $M
29.4
41.0
47.2
53.6
52.7
51.5
49.7
47.9
46.1
44.2
42.4
40.5
38.7
36.9
35.1
33.3
31.6
30.0
28.4
26.7
25.0
23.5
21.9
20.5
19.1
17.8
16.5
15.4
14.3
13.2
12.3
11.3
10.5
9.7
9.0
8.3
7.6
7.1
6.5
6.0
5.6
5.1
4.7
4.4
4.0
3.7
3.4
3.2
2.9
2.7
2.5
2.3
2.1
1.9
1.8
1.7
1.5
1.4
1.3
1.2
1,140.0
Toll Schedule v1, 6 seg - sensitivity - annualisation = 290
Key assumptions
- Growth from 2015 to 2030 interpolated from model-year results
- Growth rate beyond 2030 assumed decreasing 0.1% per annum to 1%
- Revenue growth is capped by capacity of individual HOT lane sections
- Ramp-up of revenue assumed:
60% year 1
85% year 2
100% year 3 onwards
Adjusted for Southern Section:
86% year 1
95% year 2
100% year 3 onwards
- Model revenue 2005 prices increased to 2008 prices using CPI-U
194.4 : 2005 Jan-Sep
216.0 : 2008 Jan-Sep
11.1% : 2005 Jan-Sep to 2008 Jan-Sep
- Discount rate to 2008 prices :
9%
- 2015 & 2030 Value of Time escalation based on growth in GDP
0.75 x forecast increase in GDP per capita:
1.0952 : 2005 to 2015
1.2989 : 2005 to 2030
161
I-95/I-395 HOT Lane
Appendix F
Revenue Stream – Test 6a – NORTHERN SECTION
Year
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
2030
2031
2032
2033
2034
2035
2036
2037
2038
2039
2040
2041
2042
2043
2044
2045
2046
2047
2048
2049
2050
2051
2052
2053
2054
2055
2056
2057
2058
2059
2060
2061
2062
2063
2064
2065
2066
2067
2068
2069
2070
2071
Total
Unramped
Revenue
2008 $M
69.2
74.2
79.2
86.6
91.7
96.8
101.9
107.0
112.1
117.2
122.3
127.4
132.5
137.6
142.7
147.9
153.0
158.1
163.2
167.0
170.7
174.3
177.5
180.6
183.6
186.3
188.8
191.1
193.3
195.3
197.1
198.9
200.5
202.0
203.3
204.6
206.0
207.4
208.7
209.9
211.1
212.3
213.5
214.7
215.9
217.1
218.2
219.4
220.5
221.5
222.5
223.5
224.4
225.4
226.3
227.2
228.1
229.1
230.0
230.9
10,699.0
HOT Traffic
Growth
post 2030 pa
4.0%
3.8%
3.7%
3.6%
3.4%
3.3%
3.2%
3.1%
3.0%
2.9%
2.9%
2.8%
2.7%
2.6%
2.6%
2.5%
2.4%
2.3%
2.2%
2.1%
2.0%
1.9%
1.8%
1.7%
1.6%
1.5%
1.4%
1.3%
1.2%
1.1%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
Discounted
& Ramped
Revenue
2008 $M
29.4
41.0
47.2
47.4
46.0
44.6
43.0
41.5
39.9
38.2
36.6
35.0
33.4
31.8
30.3
28.8
27.3
25.9
24.5
23.0
21.6
20.2
18.9
17.6
16.4
15.3
14.2
13.2
12.3
11.4
10.5
9.7
9.0
8.3
7.7
7.1
6.6
6.1
5.6
5.2
4.8
4.4
4.1
3.7
3.4
3.2
2.9
2.7
2.5
2.3
2.1
2.0
1.8
1.7
1.5
1.4
1.3
1.2
1.1
1.0
1,000.6
Toll Schedule v1, 6 seg - sensitivity - annualisation = 290
Key assumptions
- Growth from 2015 to 2030 interpolated from model-year results
- Growth rate beyond 2030 assumed decreasing 0.1% per annum to 1%
- Revenue growth is capped by capacity of individual HOT lane sections
- Ramp-up of revenue assumed:
60% year 1
85% year 2
100% year 3 onwards
Adjusted for Southern Section:
86% year 1
95% year 2
100% year 3 onwards
- Model revenue 2005 prices increased to 2008 prices using CPI-U
194.4 : 2005 Jan-Sep
216.0 : 2008 Jan-Sep
11.1% : 2005 Jan-Sep to 2008 Jan-Sep
- Discount rate to 2008 prices :
9%
- 2015 & 2030 Value of Time escalation based on growth in GDP
0.75 x forecast increase in GDP per capita:
1.0952 : 2005 to 2015
1.2989 : 2005 to 2030
162
I-95/I-395 HOT Lane
Appendix F
Revenue Stream – Test 6a – SOUTHERN SECTION
Year
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
2030
2031
2032
2033
2034
2035
2036
2037
2038
2039
2040
2041
2042
2043
2044
2045
2046
2047
2048
2049
2050
2051
2052
2053
2054
2055
2056
2057
2058
2059
2060
2061
2062
2063
2064
2065
2066
2067
2068
2069
2070
2071
Total
Unramped
Revenue
2008 $M
13.3
14.2
15.0
15.9
16.7
17.6
18.4
19.3
20.1
21.0
21.8
22.7
23.6
24.4
25.3
26.1
26.8
27.4
28.0
28.5
29.1
29.6
30.1
30.6
31.1
31.5
31.9
32.3
32.7
33.0
33.3
33.6
33.9
34.2
34.5
34.8
35.1
35.4
35.7
36.0
36.3
36.6
36.9
37.2
37.5
37.9
38.1
38.4
38.7
38.9
39.2
39.5
39.7
40.0
40.3
40.6
40.9
1,741.2
HOT Traffic
Growth
post 2030 pa
4.0%
3.8%
3.7%
3.6%
3.4%
3.3%
3.2%
3.1%
3.0%
2.9%
2.9%
2.8%
2.7%
2.6%
2.6%
2.5%
2.4%
2.3%
2.2%
2.1%
2.0%
1.9%
1.8%
1.7%
1.6%
1.5%
1.4%
1.3%
1.2%
1.1%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
Discounted
& Ramped
Revenue
2008 $M
6.3
6.7
6.9
6.7
6.5
6.2
6.0
5.8
5.5
5.3
5.0
4.8
4.6
4.4
4.1
3.9
3.7
3.5
3.2
3.0
2.8
2.7
2.5
2.3
2.2
2.0
1.9
1.7
1.6
1.5
1.4
1.3
1.2
1.1
1.0
0.9
0.9
0.8
0.7
0.7
0.6
0.6
0.5
0.5
0.5
0.4
0.4
0.4
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
139.5
Toll Schedule v1, 6 seg - sensitivity - annualisation = 290
Key assumptions
- Growth from 2015 to 2030 interpolated from model-year results
- Growth rate beyond 2030 assumed decreasing 0.1% per annum to 1%
- Revenue growth is capped by capacity of individual HOT lane sections
- Ramp-up of revenue assumed:
60% year 1
85% year 2
100% year 3 onwards
Adjusted for Southern Section:
86% year 1
95% year 2
100% year 3 onwards
- Model revenue 2005 prices increased to 2008 prices using CPI-U
194.4 : 2005 Jan-Sep
216.0 : 2008 Jan-Sep
11.1% : 2005 Jan-Sep to 2008 Jan-Sep
- Discount rate to 2008 prices :
9%
- 2015 & 2030 Value of Time escalation based on growth in GDP
0.75 x forecast increase in GDP per capita:
1.0952 : 2005 to 2015
1.2989 : 2005 to 2030
163
I-95/I-395 HOT Lane
Appendix F
Revenue Stream – Test 6b – ALL
Year
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
2030
2031
2032
2033
2034
2035
2036
2037
2038
2039
2040
2041
2042
2043
2044
2045
2046
2047
2048
2049
2050
2051
2052
2053
2054
2055
2056
2057
2058
2059
2060
2061
2062
2063
2064
2065
2066
2067
2068
2069
2070
2071
Total
Unramped
Revenue
2008 $M
75.2
80.6
86.0
108.5
115.0
121.4
127.9
134.4
140.9
147.3
153.8
160.3
166.8
173.2
179.7
186.2
192.7
199.1
205.6
210.5
215.2
219.7
223.8
227.8
231.6
235.1
238.3
241.3
244.2
246.8
249.2
251.5
253.6
255.6
257.3
259.1
260.9
262.7
264.4
266.1
267.7
269.4
271.0
272.7
274.3
275.9
277.5
279.1
280.6
282.1
283.4
284.7
286.1
287.4
288.7
290.0
291.3
292.6
293.9
295.2
13,512.6
HOT Traffic
Growth
post 2030 pa
4.0%
3.8%
3.7%
3.6%
3.4%
3.3%
3.2%
3.1%
3.0%
2.9%
2.9%
2.8%
2.7%
2.6%
2.6%
2.5%
2.4%
2.3%
2.2%
2.1%
2.0%
1.9%
1.8%
1.7%
1.6%
1.5%
1.4%
1.3%
1.2%
1.1%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
Discounted
& Ramped
Revenue
2008 $M
32.0
44.5
51.3
58.3
57.3
55.9
54.0
52.1
50.1
48.1
46.0
44.0
42.0
40.0
38.1
36.2
34.4
32.6
30.9
29.0
27.2
25.5
23.8
22.2
20.7
19.3
18.0
16.7
15.5
14.4
13.3
12.3
11.4
10.5
9.7
9.0
8.3
7.7
7.1
6.5
6.0
5.6
5.1
4.7
4.4
4.0
3.7
3.4
3.2
2.9
2.7
2.5
2.3
2.1
1.9
1.8
1.7
1.5
1.4
1.3
1,238.3
Toll Schedule v1, 6 seg - sensitivity - annualisation = 315
Key assumptions
- Growth from 2015 to 2030 interpolated from model-year results
- Growth rate beyond 2030 assumed decreasing 0.1% per annum to 1%
- Revenue growth is capped by capacity of individual HOT lane sections
- Ramp-up of revenue assumed:
60% year 1
85% year 2
100% year 3 onwards
Adjusted for Southern Section:
86% year 1
95% year 2
100% year 3 onwards
- Model revenue 2005 prices increased to 2008 prices using CPI-U
194.4 : 2005 Jan-Sep
216.0 : 2008 Jan-Sep
11.1% : 2005 Jan-Sep to 2008 Jan-Sep
- Discount rate to 2008 prices :
9%
- 2015 & 2030 Value of Time escalation based on growth in GDP
0.75 x forecast increase in GDP per capita:
1.0952 : 2005 to 2015
1.2989 : 2005 to 2030
164
I-95/I-395 HOT Lane
Appendix F
Revenue Stream – Test 6b – NORTHERN SECTION
Year
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
2030
2031
2032
2033
2034
2035
2036
2037
2038
2039
2040
2041
2042
2043
2044
2045
2046
2047
2048
2049
2050
2051
2052
2053
2054
2055
2056
2057
2058
2059
2060
2061
2062
2063
2064
2065
2066
2067
2068
2069
2070
2071
Total
Unramped
Revenue
2008 $M
75.2
80.6
86.0
94.0
99.6
105.1
110.7
116.2
121.8
127.3
132.9
138.4
144.0
149.5
155.1
160.6
166.2
171.7
177.2
181.4
185.4
189.3
192.8
196.2
199.5
202.4
205.0
207.5
209.9
212.1
214.1
216.0
217.8
219.4
220.8
222.3
223.8
225.2
226.7
228.0
229.3
230.6
231.9
233.3
234.5
235.8
237.0
238.3
239.5
240.6
241.7
242.7
243.8
244.8
245.8
246.8
247.8
248.8
249.9
250.8
11,621.4
HOT Traffic
Growth
post 2030 pa
4.0%
3.8%
3.7%
3.6%
3.4%
3.3%
3.2%
3.1%
3.0%
2.9%
2.9%
2.8%
2.7%
2.6%
2.6%
2.5%
2.4%
2.3%
2.2%
2.1%
2.0%
1.9%
1.8%
1.7%
1.6%
1.5%
1.4%
1.3%
1.2%
1.1%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
Discounted
& Ramped
Revenue
2008 $M
32.0
44.5
51.3
51.4
50.0
48.4
46.7
45.0
43.3
41.5
39.8
38.0
36.3
34.5
32.9
31.2
29.6
28.1
26.6
25.0
23.4
22.0
20.5
19.2
17.9
16.6
15.5
14.4
13.3
12.3
11.4
10.6
9.8
9.0
8.4
7.7
7.1
6.6
6.1
5.6
5.2
4.8
4.4
4.1
3.7
3.5
3.2
2.9
2.7
2.5
2.3
2.1
2.0
1.8
1.7
1.5
1.4
1.3
1.2
1.1
1,086.8
Toll Schedule v1, 6 seg - sensitivity - annualisation = 315
Key assumptions
- Growth from 2015 to 2030 interpolated from model-year results
- Growth rate beyond 2030 assumed decreasing 0.1% per annum to 1%
- Revenue growth is capped by capacity of individual HOT lane sections
- Ramp-up of revenue assumed:
60% year 1
85% year 2
100% year 3 onwards
Adjusted for Southern Section:
86% year 1
95% year 2
100% year 3 onwards
- Model revenue 2005 prices increased to 2008 prices using CPI-U
194.4 : 2005 Jan-Sep
216.0 : 2008 Jan-Sep
11.1% : 2005 Jan-Sep to 2008 Jan-Sep
- Discount rate to 2008 prices :
9%
- 2015 & 2030 Value of Time escalation based on growth in GDP
0.75 x forecast increase in GDP per capita:
1.0952 : 2005 to 2015
1.2989 : 2005 to 2030
165
I-95/I-395 HOT Lane
Appendix F
Revenue Stream – Test 6b – SOUTHERN SECTION
Year
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
2030
2031
2032
2033
2034
2035
2036
2037
2038
2039
2040
2041
2042
2043
2044
2045
2046
2047
2048
2049
2050
2051
2052
2053
2054
2055
2056
2057
2058
2059
2060
2061
2062
2063
2064
2065
2066
2067
2068
2069
2070
2071
Total
Unramped
Revenue
2008 $M
14.5
15.4
16.3
17.2
18.2
19.1
20.0
20.9
21.9
22.8
23.7
24.7
25.6
26.5
27.4
28.4
29.1
29.8
30.4
31.0
31.6
32.2
32.7
33.3
33.8
34.3
34.7
35.1
35.5
35.9
36.2
36.5
36.8
37.1
37.5
37.8
38.1
38.4
38.7
39.1
39.4
39.7
40.1
40.4
40.8
41.1
41.4
41.7
42.0
42.3
42.6
42.9
43.2
43.5
43.8
44.1
44.4
1,891.3
HOT Traffic
Growth
post 2030 pa
4.0%
3.8%
3.7%
3.6%
3.4%
3.3%
3.2%
3.1%
3.0%
2.9%
2.9%
2.8%
2.7%
2.6%
2.6%
2.5%
2.4%
2.3%
2.2%
2.1%
2.0%
1.9%
1.8%
1.7%
1.6%
1.5%
1.4%
1.3%
1.2%
1.1%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
Discounted
& Ramped
Revenue
2008 $M
6.8
7.3
7.5
7.3
7.0
6.8
6.5
6.3
6.0
5.7
5.5
5.2
5.0
4.7
4.5
4.3
4.0
3.8
3.5
3.3
3.1
2.9
2.7
2.5
2.3
2.2
2.0
1.9
1.7
1.6
1.5
1.4
1.3
1.2
1.1
1.0
0.9
0.9
0.8
0.7
0.7
0.6
0.6
0.5
0.5
0.5
0.4
0.4
0.4
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
151.5
Toll Schedule v1, 6 seg - sensitivity - annualisation = 315
Key assumptions
- Growth from 2015 to 2030 interpolated from model-year results
- Growth rate beyond 2030 assumed decreasing 0.1% per annum to 1%
- Revenue growth is capped by capacity of individual HOT lane sections
- Ramp-up of revenue assumed:
60% year 1
85% year 2
100% year 3 onwards
Adjusted for Southern Section:
86% year 1
95% year 2
100% year 3 onwards
- Model revenue 2005 prices increased to 2008 prices using CPI-U
194.4 : 2005 Jan-Sep
216.0 : 2008 Jan-Sep
11.1% : 2005 Jan-Sep to 2008 Jan-Sep
- Discount rate to 2008 prices :
9%
- 2015 & 2030 Value of Time escalation based on growth in GDP
0.75 x forecast increase in GDP per capita:
1.0952 : 2005 to 2015
1.2989 : 2005 to 2030
166
I-95/I-395 HOT Lane
Appendix F
Revenue Stream – Test 6c – ALL
Year
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
2030
2031
2032
2033
2034
2035
2036
2037
2038
2039
2040
2041
2042
2043
2044
2045
2046
2047
2048
2049
2050
2051
2052
2053
2054
2055
2056
2057
2058
2059
2060
2061
2062
2063
2064
2065
2066
2067
2068
2069
2070
2071
Total
Unramped
Revenue
2008 $M
77.6
83.2
88.7
111.9
118.6
125.3
132.0
138.6
145.3
152.0
158.7
165.4
172.1
178.7
185.4
192.1
198.8
205.5
212.1
217.2
222.0
226.6
230.9
235.0
239.0
242.6
245.9
249.0
251.9
254.6
257.1
259.5
261.7
263.7
265.5
267.3
269.2
271.0
272.8
274.6
276.2
277.9
279.6
281.3
283.0
284.6
286.3
287.9
289.5
291.0
292.4
293.8
295.1
296.5
297.8
299.2
300.5
301.9
303.3
304.6
13,941.6
HOT Traffic
Growth
post 2030 pa
4.0%
3.8%
3.7%
3.6%
3.4%
3.3%
3.2%
3.1%
3.0%
2.9%
2.9%
2.8%
2.7%
2.6%
2.6%
2.5%
2.4%
2.3%
2.2%
2.1%
2.0%
1.9%
1.8%
1.7%
1.6%
1.5%
1.4%
1.3%
1.2%
1.1%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
Discounted
& Ramped
Revenue
2008 $M
33.0
45.9
52.9
60.1
59.1
57.7
55.7
53.7
51.7
49.6
47.5
45.4
43.3
41.3
39.3
37.4
35.5
33.6
31.9
29.9
28.1
26.3
24.6
22.9
21.4
19.9
18.5
17.2
16.0
14.8
13.7
12.7
11.8
10.9
10.0
9.3
8.6
7.9
7.3
6.7
6.2
5.8
5.3
4.9
4.5
4.2
3.8
3.6
3.3
3.0
2.8
2.6
2.4
2.2
2.0
1.9
1.7
1.6
1.5
1.3
1,277.6
Toll Schedule v1, 6 seg - sensitivity - annualisation = 325
Key assumptions
- Growth from 2015 to 2030 interpolated from model-year results
- Growth rate beyond 2030 assumed decreasing 0.1% per annum to 1%
- Revenue growth is capped by capacity of individual HOT lane sections
- Ramp-up of revenue assumed:
60% year 1
85% year 2
100% year 3 onwards
Adjusted for Southern Section:
86% year 1
95% year 2
100% year 3 onwards
- Model revenue 2005 prices increased to 2008 prices using CPI-U
194.4 : 2005 Jan-Sep
216.0 : 2008 Jan-Sep
11.1% : 2005 Jan-Sep to 2008 Jan-Sep
- Discount rate to 2008 prices :
9%
- 2015 & 2030 Value of Time escalation based on growth in GDP
0.75 x forecast increase in GDP per capita:
1.0952 : 2005 to 2015
1.2989 : 2005 to 2030
167
I-95/I-395 HOT Lane
Appendix F
Revenue Stream – Test 6c – NORTHERN SECTION
Year
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
2030
2031
2032
2033
2034
2035
2036
2037
2038
2039
2040
2041
2042
2043
2044
2045
2046
2047
2048
2049
2050
2051
2052
2053
2054
2055
2056
2057
2058
2059
2060
2061
2062
2063
2064
2065
2066
2067
2068
2069
2070
2071
Total
Unramped
Revenue
2008 $M
77.6
83.2
88.7
97.0
102.7
108.5
114.2
119.9
125.6
131.4
137.1
142.8
148.5
154.3
160.0
165.7
171.4
177.2
182.9
187.2
191.3
195.3
198.9
202.4
205.8
208.8
211.6
214.1
216.6
218.8
220.9
222.9
224.7
226.3
227.8
229.3
230.9
232.4
233.9
235.2
236.6
237.9
239.3
240.7
242.0
243.3
244.6
245.9
247.1
248.3
249.4
250.4
251.5
252.6
253.6
254.6
255.7
256.7
257.8
258.8
11,990.3
HOT Traffic
Growth
post 2030 pa
4.0%
3.8%
3.7%
3.6%
3.4%
3.3%
3.2%
3.1%
3.0%
2.9%
2.9%
2.8%
2.7%
2.6%
2.6%
2.5%
2.4%
2.3%
2.2%
2.1%
2.0%
1.9%
1.8%
1.7%
1.6%
1.5%
1.4%
1.3%
1.2%
1.1%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
Discounted
& Ramped
Revenue
2008 $M
33.0
45.9
52.9
53.1
51.6
49.9
48.2
46.5
44.7
42.8
41.0
39.2
37.4
35.6
33.9
32.2
30.6
29.0
27.5
25.8
24.2
22.6
21.2
19.8
18.4
17.2
15.9
14.8
13.7
12.7
11.8
10.9
10.1
9.3
8.6
8.0
7.4
6.8
6.3
5.8
5.3
4.9
4.5
4.2
3.9
3.6
3.3
3.0
2.8
2.6
2.4
2.2
2.0
1.9
1.7
1.6
1.5
1.3
1.2
1.1
1,121.3
Toll Schedule v1, 6 seg - sensitivity - annualisation = 325
Key assumptions
- Growth from 2015 to 2030 interpolated from model-year results
- Growth rate beyond 2030 assumed decreasing 0.1% per annum to 1%
- Revenue growth is capped by capacity of individual HOT lane sections
- Ramp-up of revenue assumed:
60% year 1
85% year 2
100% year 3 onwards
Adjusted for Southern Section:
86% year 1
95% year 2
100% year 3 onwards
- Model revenue 2005 prices increased to 2008 prices using CPI-U
194.4 : 2005 Jan-Sep
216.0 : 2008 Jan-Sep
11.1% : 2005 Jan-Sep to 2008 Jan-Sep
- Discount rate to 2008 prices :
9%
- 2015 & 2030 Value of Time escalation based on growth in GDP
0.75 x forecast increase in GDP per capita:
1.0952 : 2005 to 2015
1.2989 : 2005 to 2030
168
I-95/I-395 HOT Lane
Appendix F
Revenue Stream – Test 6c – SOUTHERN SECTION
Year
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
2030
2031
2032
2033
2034
2035
2036
2037
2038
2039
2040
2041
2042
2043
2044
2045
2046
2047
2048
2049
2050
2051
2052
2053
2054
2055
2056
2057
2058
2059
2060
2061
2062
2063
2064
2065
2066
2067
2068
2069
2070
2071
Total
Unramped
Revenue
2008 $M
14.9
15.9
16.8
17.8
18.7
19.7
20.7
21.6
22.6
23.5
24.5
25.4
26.4
27.4
28.3
29.3
30.0
30.7
31.3
32.0
32.6
33.2
33.8
34.3
34.9
35.3
35.8
36.2
36.6
37.0
37.4
37.7
38.0
38.3
38.6
39.0
39.3
39.6
40.0
40.3
40.7
41.0
41.4
41.7
42.1
42.4
42.7
43.0
43.3
43.6
43.9
44.2
44.5
44.8
45.2
45.5
45.8
1,951.3
HOT Traffic
Growth
post 2030 pa
4.0%
3.8%
3.7%
3.6%
3.4%
3.3%
3.2%
3.1%
3.0%
2.9%
2.9%
2.8%
2.7%
2.6%
2.6%
2.5%
2.4%
2.3%
2.2%
2.1%
2.0%
1.9%
1.8%
1.7%
1.6%
1.5%
1.4%
1.3%
1.2%
1.1%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
Discounted
& Ramped
Revenue
2008 $M
7.0
7.6
7.7
7.5
7.3
7.0
6.7
6.5
6.2
5.9
5.7
5.4
5.1
4.9
4.6
4.4
4.1
3.9
3.6
3.4
3.2
3.0
2.8
2.6
2.4
2.2
2.1
1.9
1.8
1.7
1.5
1.4
1.3
1.2
1.1
1.0
1.0
0.9
0.8
0.8
0.7
0.7
0.6
0.6
0.5
0.5
0.4
0.4
0.4
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.2
0.2
0.2
156.3
Toll Schedule v1, 6 seg - sensitivity - annualisation = 325
Key assumptions
- Growth from 2015 to 2030 interpolated from model-year results
- Growth rate beyond 2030 assumed decreasing 0.1% per annum to 1%
- Revenue growth is capped by capacity of individual HOT lane sections
- Ramp-up of revenue assumed:
60% year 1
85% year 2
100% year 3 onwards
Adjusted for Southern Section:
86% year 1
95% year 2
100% year 3 onwards
- Model revenue 2005 prices increased to 2008 prices using CPI-U
194.4 : 2005 Jan-Sep
216.0 : 2008 Jan-Sep
11.1% : 2005 Jan-Sep to 2008 Jan-Sep
- Discount rate to 2008 prices :
9%
- 2015 & 2030 Value of Time escalation based on growth in GDP
0.75 x forecast increase in GDP per capita:
1.0952 : 2005 to 2015
1.2989 : 2005 to 2030
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Appendix G
Appendix G – Sensitivity of Traffic Model Forecasts to
Fuel Prices
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Appendix G
Sensitivity of Traffic Model Forecasts to Fuel Prices
(1) Fuel Price Projections
Energy Information Administration (EIA) provides the official energy statistics from the US
Government. In a June 2008 report their 2008 to 2030 projections were as follows:
Retail prices for petroleum products largely follow changes in crude oil prices. In the
AEO2008 reference case, the world oil price path reaches a low of $57 per barrel in 2016 and
then increases to about $70 in 2030 (2006 dollars). The U.S. average motor gasoline price
follows the same trend, falling to $2.19 per gallon in 2016 before rising to $2.45 in 2030.
In the high price case, with the price of imported crude oil rising to $119 per barrel (2006
dollars) in 2030, the average price of U.S. motor gasoline increases rapidly, to $3.06 per
gallon in 2016 and $3.52 per gallon in 2030. In the low price case, gasoline prices decline to
a low of $1.74 per gallon in 2016, increase slowly through the early 2020s, and level off at
about $1.84 per gallon through 2030 (Figure 92).
Because changes from the reference case assumptions for economic growth rates have less
pronounced effects on motor gasoline prices than do changes in oil price assumptions, the
average prices for U.S. motor gasoline in the high and low economic growth cases are close
to those in the reference case. In the high growth case, the average gasoline price falls to a
low of $2.24 per gallon in 2016 and then rises to $2.59 per gallon in 2030. In the low growth
case, the average price reaches a low of $2.16 per gallon in 2017, followed by an increase to
$2.32 per gallon in 2030.
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Appendix G
In November 2008, EIA revised their 2030 oil price forecast to $120 per barrel ($2007) when
oil prices were around $50 per barrel. In December 2008, the EIA reissued their 2009 oil and
gasoline forecasts at $51 per barrel and $2.03 per gallon (regular-grade gasoline).
In November 2008, respected industry analyst Charlie Maxwell (Weeden & Co.) predicted
short-term oil prices in the $40 per barrel range, remaining flat and then rising to $70.
However, two months earlier he was calling for short term prices in the $75-$115 range, rising
to $250 per barrel by 2015.
The above discussion highlights the current uncertainty and fluctuations in oil and fuel price
forecasts. However, it would appear that there is consensus that prices are likely to rise in the
future. Assuming a $70 per barrel in 2010 the current IEA 2030 forecast of $120 per barrel
represents a 70% increase (or approx. 40% increase by 2020 based on interpolation).
The June 2007 Energy Bill passed by the US Senate requires average fuel economy of 35
mpg for new cars, pickup trucks and SUV’s by 2020, representing a 40% improvement in fuel
efficiency over 2008 levels (automakers are currently required to meet an average of
27.5mpg for cars and 22.2 mpg for SUV’s and small trucks).
In summary, the future of fuel prices is uncertain, but it would seem prudent to assume that
fuel prices could increase in real terms in the future. This will be offset somewhat by improved
fuel efficiency technology. Due to the uncertainty surrounding future fuel prices and the
impacts of fuel efficiency, we recommend a central assumption that vehicle operating costs
(VOC) will remain constant in real terms. Note that for modeling purposes, the variable VOC
is used, which includes fuel, oil, maintenance and tires. In our risk analysis we will examine
low and high VOC scenarios of ±13% around the central assumption (this represents a 20%
change in fuel costs). In our view, both an upside and downside VOC assumption appears
prudent in the current market.
(2) Modeling the Impact of Fuel Price Increases
The future year trip matrices in the traffic model are based on factoring base year matrices
with the regional model’s trip generation rates and then using a Fratar process to redistribute
the future year trips. This process effectively assumes minimum change to current travel
conditions (allowing for projected development growth) and no account is taken of any
changes to specific travel costs arising from new infrastructure or more generally from events
such as real increases in fuel prices.
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Appendix G
The simplest method for undertaking a test to model the impact of fuel price increases is
through an elasticity approach, whereby each cell in the future year trip matrix is adjusted as
follows:
 C ijNEW
TijNEW = TijBASE × 
 CijBASE

Where




E
TijNEW is the trip total from i to j under the new fuel prices,
TijBASE is the trip total under the current base year fuel price
CijNEW is the new fuel price from i to j
CijBASE is the base year fuel price
E is the elasticity of trips to fuel prices
Note that CijNEW and CijBASE are not the total cost of travel but only the fuel price component of
this cost.
Values of ‘E’ have been determined by many studies. Most of these values seem to broadly
agree around the following projections from Phil Goodwin, Joyce Dargay and Mark Hanly in
“Review of Income and Price Elasticities in the Demand for Road Traffic”. They project that
following a 10% real increase in fuel costs:
•
•
•
•
Trips fall by 1% in short term and 3% in the longer term (after 5 years)
Demand for fuel falls by 2.5% in short term and 6% in longer term
Fuel efficiency increases by 1.5% in short term and 4% in longer term
Car ownership falls by <1% in short term and 2.5% in longer term.
Using this elasticity approach, the key result in terms of the sensitivity test is the fall in trips.
An appropriate implied elasticity of trips is -0.3 against base fuel price conditions.
(3) Fuel Price Sensitivity Test
We have modeled the impact on trip lengths and trip totals using an elasticity model
approach, with an assumed fuel price elasticity of -0.3 in a range of higher fuel prices of up to
±20%. The change in fuel type is covered by the projections from the Energy Information
Administration.
Another issue also arises when considering the vehicle operating cost (VOC) sensitivity tests.
Specifically, how would any affect on trip lengths and/or number of trips brought about by a
change in fuel type be captured? For example, by 2030, increased use of fuel additives
and/or alternative fuel would change the cost structure of VOC. In doing this, it is useful to
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Appendix G
consider how the upper and lower limits for VOC sensitivities compare with the range for
values of time (VOT) in northern Virginia.
Future changes in VOT reflect some function of real increases in GDP per capita. Typically,
economists tend to assume that there is a relationship between these two with the increase in
VOT put at around 0.5 to 1.0 times the real increase in GDP/capita. An elasticity of VOT to
GDP/capita of 0.75 has been assumed for this study. Virginia’s population is projected to
increase at close to 1% pa (2010-2030) and assuming real GDP growth from 2010 is around
2.5% pa our projections for GDP/capita in northern Virginia are for a real increase of
approximately 30% to 2030. On the basis of a 0.75 elasticity of VOT to GDP/capita, the likely
real increase in VOT is approximately 20% (2005 to 2015) and 45% (2005 to 2030).
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Appendix H
Appendix H – Risk Analysis methodologies
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Appendix H
Risk Analysis methodologies
Risk Analysis
All forecasts are inherently subject to degree of uncertainty, related to which a level of risk
can be associated with the likelihood that a forecast will be met. The risks associated with
traffic forecasts derived from a traffic model (and their associated toll revenue estimates) can
be ascribed to three main sources of risk:
•
•
•
Independent assumptions input used in the traffic models, or factors that are directly
applied to the model generated traffic or revenue estimates (such as assumptions
for land-use developments, changes to other transport infrastructure or transport
policies, background traffic growth, ramp-up profiles, etc);
Processes or parameters within the traffic models which in turn affect their outputs
(such as methodological and data processing issues, choice of model parameters,
modelling errors, etc);
Data from which the initial base year models are derived (such as potential data
omissions, low sampling rates or other inadequacies, actual data errors, etc).
It is perhaps arguable whether it is possible to prepare a rigorously quantified risk analysis for
traffic forecasts, as the range of assumptions included within the preparation of many
forecasts can be so extensive, and the distribution of risk around each of these factors so
little understood, that any such results could well appear (and, in fact, be) spurious in their
accuracy.
However, it is often the case that many of the input assumptions used in the traffic
forecasting process have little effect on the resultant forecasts and can largely be ignored
from the risk process, and that the distribution of risk around the key issues is often generally
better understood than the equivalent distributions around the more peripheral issues.
Nevertheless, there is clearly a strong imperative to understand the likely relative levels of
risk associated with such variables and the risk analysis process aims to do this. Note that
there still remains the need for some degree of caution in the interpretation and use of the
results that are obtained from the risk analysis process.
Methodologies
Two approaches are available to incorporate these risks into the traffic forecasts:
•
•
Deterministic scenarios; and
The Monte Carlo approach.
Both approaches aim to give a range, rather than a single revenue line.
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Appendix H
Scenario-based approach
Deterministic scenarios take a series of input assumptions with a given theme to calculate
revenue that would be expected under a particular ‘case’. For instance, an ‘aggressive’ case,
would simply use more optimistic values for all input assumptions, while an alternative more
pessimistic forecast would take conservative input assumptions.
The advantage of this approach is the transparency of the input assumptions, and results
show a given outcome for a given set of inputs. Since each input assumption is explicitly
defined it is possible to avoid double counting of risk where inputs are correlated. Several
scenarios can be created with varying degrees of optimism/conservatism in the inputs.
A key drawback of this approach is the increased difficulty in assigning probabilities that each
scenario may occur. In addition, each scenario still results in a single revenue line, which
implies a certainty of the revenues in each scenario that is not necessarily possible. Many
scenarios can be created using this approach, but in doing so tends towards the Monte Carlo
approach (see below).
Monte Carlo Approach
This approach attempts to incorporate all the potential sources of error in the forecast at
once, resulting in thresholds with given probability that out-turn revenue will exceed this level.
The revenue impacts of each input are taken individually, and by allocating distributions to
each input it is possible to combine the impacts of thousands of input permutations with the
probability of each of these permutations. The overall probability distribution of revenue
forecasts is thus generated.
The probability distribution is popular with lenders as they can decide to lend money based
on revenues which have a (say) 90% probability of being equalled or exceeded. It allows the
risk on all the input assumptions to be assessed simultaneously, including risks not explicitly
included in the model such as the count data and model robustness.
However, it is possible to double count risk if inputs are correlated and so it is necessary to
ensure each input is tested in isolation to produce the effect of the input variables. This is the
inherent reasoning behind the sensitivity testing process carried out. Furthermore, the overall
probability distribution of the revenues is heavily dependent on the probability distribution of
each input, and it is unlikely this will be known with great certainty itself.
The Monte Carol approach has been used in the risk analysis of the traffic and revenue
forecasts in this study.
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Appendix I
Appendix I – 90% & 10% Confidence Intervals –
Detailed Results
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Appendix I
Sensitivity Tests – Detailed Results
This Appendix contains detailed results for 90% and 10% Confidence Intervals. A revenue
stream is provided for each, including separate streams for the northern and southern
sectors.
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Appendix I
Revenue Stream – 90% Confidence – ALL
Year
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
2030
2031
2032
2033
2034
2035
2036
2037
2038
2039
2040
2041
2042
2043
2044
2045
2046
2047
2048
2049
2050
2051
2052
2053
2054
2055
2056
2057
2058
2059
2060
2061
2062
2063
2064
2065
2066
2067
2068
2069
2070
2071
Total
Unramped
Revenue
2008 $M
61.5
65.9
70.3
88.7
93.7
98.7
103.8
108.8
113.9
118.9
124.0
129.0
134.1
139.1
144.1
149.2
154.2
159.3
164.3
168.0
171.7
175.1
178.3
181.3
184.2
186.8
189.3
191.6
193.7
195.7
197.5
199.2
200.7
202.1
203.5
204.9
206.3
207.7
209.2
210.6
212.0
213.3
214.6
215.9
217.2
218.5
219.8
221.1
222.3
223.6
224.9
226.0
227.0
228.1
229.1
230.2
231.2
232.3
233.3
234.4
10,753.3
HOT Traffic
Growth
post 2030 pa
3.8%
3.6%
3.5%
3.4%
3.3%
3.2%
3.1%
3.0%
2.9%
2.8%
2.7%
2.7%
2.6%
2.5%
2.5%
2.4%
2.3%
2.2%
2.1%
2.0%
1.9%
1.8%
1.7%
1.6%
1.5%
1.4%
1.3%
1.2%
1.1%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
Discounted
& Ramped
Revenue
2008 $M
26.1
30.0
33.5
43.4
46.4
45.0
43.6
42.2
40.5
38.8
37.1
35.4
33.8
32.1
30.6
29.0
27.5
26.1
24.7
23.2
21.7
20.3
19.0
17.7
16.5
15.3
14.3
13.2
12.3
11.4
10.5
9.8
9.0
8.3
7.7
7.1
6.6
6.1
5.6
5.2
4.8
4.4
4.1
3.8
3.5
3.2
3.0
2.7
2.5
2.3
2.1
2.0
1.8
1.7
1.5
1.4
1.3
1.2
1.1
1.0
976.0
Toll Schedule v1, 6 segments - 90% confidence
Key assumptions
- Growth from 2015 to 2030 interpolated from model-year results
- Growth rate beyond 2030 assumed decreasing 0.1% per annum to 1%
- Revenue growth is capped by capacity of individual HOT lane sections
- Ramp-up of revenue assumed:
60% year 1
70% year 2
80% year 3
90% year 4
100% year 5 onwards
Adjusted for Southern Section:
86% year 1
90% year 2
93% year 3
97% year 4
100% year 5 onwards
- Model revenue 2005 prices increased to 2008 prices using CPI-U
194.4 : 2005 Jan-Sep
216.0 : 2008 Jan-Sep
11.1% : 2005 Jan-Sep to 2008 Jan-Sep
- Discount rate to 2008 prices :
9%
- 2015 & 2030 Value of Time escalation based on growth in GDP
0.75 x forecast increase in GDP per capita:
1.0952 : 2005 to 2015
1.2989 : 2005 to 2030
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Appendix I
Revenue Stream – 90% Confidence – NORTHERN SECTION
Year
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
2030
2031
2032
2033
2034
2035
2036
2037
2038
2039
2040
2041
2042
2043
2044
2045
2046
2047
2048
2049
2050
2051
2052
2053
2054
2055
2056
2057
2058
2059
2060
2061
2062
2063
2064
2065
2066
2067
2068
2069
2070
2071
Total
Unramped
Revenue
2008 $M
61.5
65.9
70.3
76.8
81.2
85.5
89.8
94.1
98.4
102.8
107.1
111.4
115.7
120.0
124.4
128.7
133.0
137.3
141.6
144.8
147.9
150.9
153.6
156.2
158.7
160.8
162.9
164.8
166.6
168.2
169.7
171.1
172.4
173.5
174.7
175.8
177.0
178.2
179.4
180.6
181.7
182.7
183.7
184.8
185.8
186.9
187.9
188.9
189.9
190.9
191.9
192.8
193.6
194.4
195.2
196.0
196.8
197.6
198.4
199.2
9,252.3
HOT Traffic
Growth
post 2030 pa
3.8%
3.6%
3.5%
3.4%
3.3%
3.2%
3.1%
3.0%
2.9%
2.8%
2.7%
2.7%
2.6%
2.5%
2.5%
2.4%
2.3%
2.2%
2.1%
2.0%
1.9%
1.8%
1.7%
1.6%
1.5%
1.4%
1.3%
1.2%
1.1%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
Discounted
& Ramped
Revenue
2008 $M
26.1
30.0
33.5
37.8
40.7
39.4
37.9
36.5
35.0
33.5
32.0
30.6
29.1
27.7
26.4
25.0
23.7
22.5
21.3
20.0
18.7
17.5
16.3
15.2
14.2
13.2
12.3
11.4
10.6
9.8
9.1
8.4
7.7
7.2
6.6
6.1
5.6
5.2
4.8
4.4
4.1
3.8
3.5
3.2
3.0
2.7
2.5
2.3
2.1
2.0
1.8
1.7
1.6
1.4
1.3
1.2
1.1
1.0
0.9
0.9
855.5
Toll Schedule v1, 6 segments - 90% confidence
Key assumptions
- Growth from 2015 to 2030 interpolated from model-year results
- Growth rate beyond 2030 assumed decreasing 0.1% per annum to 1%
- Revenue growth is capped by capacity of individual HOT lane sections
- Ramp-up of revenue assumed:
60% year 1
70% year 2
80% year 3
90% year 4
100% year 5 onwards
Adjusted for Southern Section:
86% year 1
90% year 2
93% year 3
97% year 4
100% year 5 onwards
- Model revenue 2005 prices increased to 2008 prices using CPI-U
194.4 : 2005 Jan-Sep
216.0 : 2008 Jan-Sep
11.1% : 2005 Jan-Sep to 2008 Jan-Sep
- Discount rate to 2008 prices :
9%
- 2015 & 2030 Value of Time escalation based on growth in GDP
0.75 x forecast increase in GDP per capita:
1.0952 : 2005 to 2015
1.2989 : 2005 to 2030
181
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Appendix I
Revenue Stream – 90% Confidence – SOUTHERN SECTION
Year
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
2030
2031
2032
2033
2034
2035
2036
2037
2038
2039
2040
2041
2042
2043
2044
2045
2046
2047
2048
2049
2050
2051
2052
2053
2054
2055
2056
2057
2058
2059
2060
2061
2062
2063
2064
2065
2066
2067
2068
2069
2070
2071
Total
Unramped
Revenue
2008 $M
11.8
12.5
13.3
14.0
14.7
15.4
16.2
16.9
17.6
18.3
19.1
19.8
20.5
21.2
21.9
22.7
23.2
23.7
24.2
24.7
25.1
25.6
26.0
26.4
26.8
27.2
27.5
27.8
28.1
28.3
28.6
28.8
29.1
29.3
29.5
29.8
30.1
30.3
30.6
30.8
31.1
31.4
31.6
31.9
32.2
32.4
32.7
33.0
33.2
33.5
33.7
33.9
34.2
34.4
34.6
34.9
35.1
1,501.0
HOT Traffic
Growth
post 2030 pa
3.8%
3.6%
3.5%
3.4%
3.3%
3.2%
3.1%
3.0%
2.9%
2.8%
2.7%
2.7%
2.6%
2.5%
2.5%
2.4%
2.3%
2.2%
2.1%
2.0%
1.9%
1.8%
1.7%
1.6%
1.5%
1.4%
1.3%
1.2%
1.1%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
Discounted
& Ramped
Revenue
2008 $M
5.6
5.6
5.7
5.7
5.7
5.5
5.3
5.1
4.8
4.6
4.4
4.2
4.0
3.8
3.6
3.4
3.2
3.0
2.8
2.6
2.5
2.3
2.1
2.0
1.9
1.7
1.6
1.5
1.4
1.3
1.2
1.1
1.0
0.9
0.9
0.8
0.7
0.7
0.6
0.6
0.5
0.5
0.5
0.4
0.4
0.4
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
120.6
Toll Schedule v1, 6 segments - 90% confidence
Key assumptions
- Growth from 2015 to 2030 interpolated from model-year results
- Growth rate beyond 2030 assumed decreasing 0.1% per annum to 1%
- Revenue growth is capped by capacity of individual HOT lane sections
- Ramp-up of revenue assumed:
60% year 1
70% year 2
80% year 3
90% year 4
100% year 5 onwards
Adjusted for Southern Section:
86% year 1
90% year 2
93% year 3
97% year 4
100% year 5 onwards
- Model revenue 2005 prices increased to 2008 prices using CPI-U
194.4 : 2005 Jan-Sep
216.0 : 2008 Jan-Sep
11.1% : 2005 Jan-Sep to 2008 Jan-Sep
- Discount rate to 2008 prices :
9%
- 2015 & 2030 Value of Time escalation based on growth in GDP
0.75 x forecast increase in GDP per capita:
1.0952 : 2005 to 2015
1.2989 : 2005 to 2030
182
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Appendix I
Revenue Stream – 10% Confidence – ALL
Year
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
2030
2031
2032
2033
2034
2035
2036
2037
2038
2039
2040
2041
2042
2043
2044
2045
2046
2047
2048
2049
2050
2051
2052
2053
2054
2055
2056
2057
2058
2059
2060
2061
2062
2063
2064
2065
2066
2067
2068
2069
2070
2071
Total
Unramped
Revenue
2008 $M
85.7
91.8
98.0
123.6
130.3
137.1
143.8
150.6
157.4
164.1
170.9
177.6
184.4
191.1
197.9
204.7
211.4
218.2
224.9
229.9
234.6
239.1
243.3
247.3
251.1
254.7
257.9
260.9
263.7
266.2
268.5
270.6
272.6
274.5
276.5
278.4
280.4
282.3
284.3
286.3
288.3
290.2
292.0
293.8
295.7
297.5
299.3
301.1
302.9
304.7
306.4
308.1
309.7
311.1
312.6
314.1
315.5
317.0
318.4
319.9
14,685.2
HOT Traffic
Growth
post 2030 pa
3.6%
3.4%
3.3%
3.2%
3.1%
3.0%
2.9%
2.9%
2.8%
2.7%
2.6%
2.6%
2.5%
2.4%
2.4%
2.3%
2.2%
2.1%
2.0%
1.9%
1.8%
1.7%
1.6%
1.5%
1.4%
1.3%
1.2%
1.1%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
Discounted
& Ramped
Revenue
2008 $M
54.6
59.7
58.4
67.3
65.4
63.1
60.8
58.4
55.9
53.5
51.1
48.8
46.4
44.2
42.0
39.8
37.7
35.7
33.8
31.7
29.7
27.7
25.9
24.1
22.5
20.9
19.4
18.0
16.7
15.5
14.3
13.3
12.2
11.3
10.5
9.7
8.9
8.2
7.6
7.0
6.5
6.0
5.5
5.1
4.7
4.4
4.0
3.7
3.4
3.2
2.9
2.7
2.5
2.3
2.1
1.9
1.8
1.7
1.5
1.4
1,399.3
Toll Schedule v1, 6 segments - 10% confidence
Key assumptions
- Growth from 2015 to 2030 interpolated from model-year results
- Growth rate beyond 2030 assumed decreasing 0.1% per annum to 1%
- Revenue growth is capped by capacity of individual HOT lane sections
- Ramp-up of revenue assumed:
90% year 1
100% year 2
100% year 3
100% year 4
100% year 5 onwards
Adjusted for Southern Section:
97% year 1
100% year 2
100% year 3
100% year 4
100% year 5 onwards
- Model revenue 2005 prices increased to 2008 prices using CPI-U
194.4 : 2005 Jan-Sep
216.0 : 2008 Jan-Sep
11.1% : 2005 Jan-Sep to 2008 Jan-Sep
- Discount rate to 2008 prices :
9%
- 2015 & 2030 Value of Time escalation based on growth in GDP
0.75 x forecast increase in GDP per capita:
1.0952 : 2005 to 2015
1.2989 : 2005 to 2030
183
I-95/I-395 HOT Lane
Appendix I
Revenue Stream – 10% Confidence – NORTHERN SECTION
Year
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
2030
2031
2032
2033
2034
2035
2036
2037
2038
2039
2040
2041
2042
2043
2044
2045
2046
2047
2048
2049
2050
2051
2052
2053
2054
2055
2056
2057
2058
2059
2060
2061
2062
2063
2064
2065
2066
2067
2068
2069
2070
2071
Total
Unramped
Revenue
2008 $M
85.7
91.8
98.0
107.1
112.9
118.7
124.5
130.3
136.0
141.8
147.6
153.4
159.2
165.0
170.8
176.5
182.3
188.1
193.9
198.1
202.2
206.0
209.7
213.1
216.3
219.3
222.0
224.5
226.8
228.9
230.8
232.6
234.2
235.8
237.4
239.0
240.7
242.3
243.9
245.6
247.2
248.8
250.2
251.6
253.1
254.6
256.0
257.4
258.9
260.3
261.6
262.9
264.1
265.2
266.4
267.5
268.7
269.8
270.9
272.0
12,640.0
HOT Traffic
Growth
post 2030 pa
3.6%
3.4%
3.3%
3.2%
3.1%
3.0%
2.9%
2.9%
2.8%
2.7%
2.6%
2.6%
2.5%
2.4%
2.4%
2.3%
2.2%
2.1%
2.0%
1.9%
1.8%
1.7%
1.6%
1.5%
1.4%
1.3%
1.2%
1.1%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
Discounted
& Ramped
Revenue
2008 $M
54.6
59.7
58.4
58.6
56.7
54.6
52.6
50.5
48.4
46.3
44.2
42.1
40.1
38.1
36.2
34.3
32.5
30.8
29.1
27.3
25.6
23.9
22.3
20.8
19.4
18.0
16.7
15.5
14.4
13.3
12.3
11.4
10.5
9.7
9.0
8.3
7.7
7.1
6.5
6.0
5.6
5.1
4.7
4.4
4.0
3.7
3.4
3.2
2.9
2.7
2.5
2.3
2.1
2.0
1.8
1.7
1.5
1.4
1.3
1.2
1,231.2
Toll Schedule v1, 6 segments - 10% confidence
Key assumptions
- Growth from 2015 to 2030 interpolated from model-year results
- Growth rate beyond 2030 assumed decreasing 0.1% per annum to 1%
- Revenue growth is capped by capacity of individual HOT lane sections
- Ramp-up of revenue assumed:
90% year 1
100% year 2
100% year 3
100% year 4
100% year 5 onwards
Adjusted for Southern Section:
97% year 1
100% year 2
100% year 3
100% year 4
100% year 5 onwards
- Model revenue 2005 prices increased to 2008 prices using CPI-U
194.4 : 2005 Jan-Sep
216.0 : 2008 Jan-Sep
11.1% : 2005 Jan-Sep to 2008 Jan-Sep
- Discount rate to 2008 prices :
9%
- 2015 & 2030 Value of Time escalation based on growth in GDP
0.75 x forecast increase in GDP per capita:
1.0952 : 2005 to 2015
1.2989 : 2005 to 2030
184
I-95/I-395 HOT Lane
Appendix I
Revenue Stream – 10% Confidence – SOUTHERN SECTION
Year
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
2030
2031
2032
2033
2034
2035
2036
2037
2038
2039
2040
2041
2042
2043
2044
2045
2046
2047
2048
2049
2050
2051
2052
2053
2054
2055
2056
2057
2058
2059
2060
2061
2062
2063
2064
2065
2066
2067
2068
2069
2070
2071
Total
Unramped
Revenue
2008 $M
16.5
17.4
18.4
19.4
20.3
21.3
22.3
23.3
24.2
25.2
26.2
27.1
28.1
29.1
30.1
31.0
31.7
32.4
33.1
33.7
34.3
34.8
35.4
35.9
36.4
36.9
37.3
37.7
38.0
38.4
38.7
39.0
39.4
39.7
40.1
40.4
40.8
41.1
41.5
41.8
42.2
42.6
42.9
43.3
43.7
44.1
44.4
44.8
45.2
45.6
45.9
46.2
46.5
46.9
47.2
47.5
47.9
2,045.2
HOT Traffic
Growth
post 2030 pa
3.6%
3.4%
3.3%
3.2%
3.1%
3.0%
2.9%
2.9%
2.8%
2.7%
2.6%
2.6%
2.5%
2.4%
2.4%
2.3%
2.2%
2.1%
2.0%
1.9%
1.8%
1.7%
1.6%
1.5%
1.4%
1.3%
1.2%
1.1%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
Discounted
& Ramped
Revenue
2008 $M
8.7
8.8
8.5
8.2
7.9
7.6
7.3
7.0
6.7
6.3
6.0
5.8
5.5
5.2
4.9
4.7
4.4
4.1
3.8
3.6
3.3
3.1
2.9
2.7
2.5
2.3
2.2
2.0
1.9
1.7
1.6
1.5
1.4
1.3
1.2
1.1
1.0
0.9
0.9
0.8
0.7
0.7
0.6
0.6
0.5
0.5
0.5
0.4
0.4
0.4
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.2
0.2
0.2
168.2
Toll Schedule v1, 6 segments - 10% confidence
Key assumptions
- Growth from 2015 to 2030 interpolated from model-year results
- Growth rate beyond 2030 assumed decreasing 0.1% per annum to 1%
- Revenue growth is capped by capacity of individual HOT lane sections
- Ramp-up of revenue assumed:
90% year 1
100% year 2
100% year 3
100% year 4
100% year 5 onwards
Adjusted for Southern Section:
97% year 1
100% year 2
100% year 3
100% year 4
100% year 5 onwards
- Model revenue 2005 prices increased to 2008 prices using CPI-U
194.4 : 2005 Jan-Sep
216.0 : 2008 Jan-Sep
11.1% : 2005 Jan-Sep to 2008 Jan-Sep
- Discount rate to 2008 prices :
9%
- 2015 & 2030 Value of Time escalation based on growth in GDP
0.75 x forecast increase in GDP per capita:
1.0952 : 2005 to 2015
1.2989 : 2005 to 2030
185