Department of European Economic Studies Raimund Bleischwitz Projektseminar Europäische Umweltpolitik: ökonomische Aspekte und Einbeziehung der Lissabon-Strategie BU Wuppertal 2007/08 ... Heutiges Programm… 1) Marktversagen (kollektive Güter, externe Effekte) als Theorie der Umweltpolitik Vortrag Präsentation: Claudia Hirtl “Kosten und Nutzen der EU Luftreinhaltepolitik“, aus Krankheitsgründen vertagt 2) Ökonomie ‚nachhaltige Entwicklung’ Vortrag Präsentation: Ayse Yildrim, Andreas Suckow „Environmental Kuznets Curve“: Findet in der EU eine Entkoppelung der Umweltbelastungen vom BIP statt? Theorie und Empirie Fahrplan (am Fr vorher Entwurf der Hausarbeit, PPT-Präsentation und Thesenpapier übersenden!) 5) Unternehmenstheorien, Theorien der Wettbewerbsfähigkeit und Implikationen für die Umweltpolitik 21.4. Nachhaltige Unternehmenskonzepte und Umweltinnovationen: Zertifizierungssysteme als marktendogener Beitrag zur Überwindung von Informationsasymmetrien (Lit: Silvia Kurte Claudia Hirtl Michael Conroy, Branded!, New Society Publisher 2 0 0 7 ) 6) Anreizinstrumente in der europäischen Umweltpolitik 21.4. 7) Die Strategie zum nachhaltigen Ressourcenmanagement 5.5. 8) Ökonomie der Klimaund Energiepolitik 1 ) K osten und Nutzen der Ökosteuer (D) 2 ) S teuern auf Baustoffe (UK) – ein Modell für die EU? http://www.worldecotax.org.html Nicht-erneuerbare Rohstoffe und Nachhaltigkeit: Theorie, Status Quo und und Perspektiven für die EU a) Kupfer b) Phosphat (vgl. z.B. UBA-Text vom IFEU Institut) Der ‚Stern-Report’ zur Ökonomie des Klimaschutzes: Darstellung, Analyse (auch: Gegenargumente von Skeptikern), Schlussfolgerungen Daniela Scheffels, Nana Scholl Maik Kickuth, Mimonn Aoulad Racha Ben Hay, Andreas Frank Why are market failures relevant? People respond to incentives! Misleading price signals and inappropriate property rights lead to overuse of nature (natural resources and ecosystems) Even if environmental technologies & more sustainable patterns of production and consumtion were developed (see ETAP, EU SDS), any dissemination is faced with information deficits, acceptance and other barriers. Theory of Collective Goods I Public goods: non rivalry in consumption, no excludability, e.g. national defence, earth atmosphere Introduced by Samuelson (1954), Musgrave (1958), further papers e.g. by by Olson (1966) on the ‘logic of collective action’ and by Hardin (1968) on the ‘tragedy of the commons’ Problem: Everybody benefits, but no incentive to invest in provision or maintenance Provision of public goods is a public task! Question to course participants: is the environment a public good? Theory of Collective Goods II Common-pool resources: rivalry in consumption, no excludability, e.g. congested roads, fish in the ocean Club goods: excludability, no rivalry in consumption, e.g. a course at the CoE Status goods: limited access, benefit from exclusiveness, e.g. whale watching Network goods: increasing returns with increasing number of users, users are interconnected, e.g. telecommunication => Common denominator: non-private goods. Collective goods comprise public goods and other non-private goods. Economics of CPR An open-access resource can be defined as a commonproperty resource that lacks any system of rules governing its use Constant returns = additional access (boats) increases total production (Fish) Diminishing returns = additional access (boats) increase total production but diminishes individual production (fishes) Absolutely dominishing returns = additional access decrease total production (overfishing) Incentives to overuse Profitable business attracts new entrants process of entry continues until average revenue falls below the marginal cost of operating a boat (1200 boats) Such economic signal comes far too late—too late for economic efficiency, and too late for ecological sustainability. Empirical evidence for overuse Fisheries have collapsed (MEA 2005) What if such changes occur nonlinear? A few examples for nonlinear changes: Eutrophication and hypoxia Disease emergence Species introductions and losses Regional climate change Maximum sustainable yield needs environmenal research Problems …………… o o o o Use as free rider -> overuse Poor incentives for provision and maintenance under supply or even no supply at al .... But bureaucracy for public provision may be driven by self-interest (=> over supply!) (public choice) and Solutions Preference analysis: willingnessto-pay, contingent valuation etc. Optimal taxation (for public goods) Property rights (“why the cow is not extinct”) for common pool resources User fees (for cpr, club goods, network goods) Regulated competition (for network goods, natural monopolies) Others? What is the interest of firms and individuals? Coase Theorem Option (a): damage costs exceed abatement costs for the polluter -> polluter is likely to reduce pollution. Option (b): abatement costs exceed damage costs -> polluter is likely to compensate the victim Both options are efficient solutions according to Coase (1960, and H. Demsetz, 1969) Coase: negotiations among affected parties will result in an efficient and invariant outcome under the standard assumptions of competitive markets (especially, that the costs of transactings are zero), as long as property rights are well-defined. Applying the Coase approach An efficient level of pollution as a result of freely negotiated property rights A right to pollute provided the victims are compensated for their damages. • Optimal level of pollution when the marginal benefits to the company balances the marginal costs to the community imposed through pollution. Free market environmentalism? No! Assignment of property rights Costs to negotiate (transaction costs) Free riding Holdout effect Public choice if the number of parties is high Equity issues / organisation of weak interests Discussion Questions Consider the EU SDS. How are the environmental elements related to collective goods? What are the characteristics of these elements? Remember the DPSIR framework. For which elements is it essential to analyse collective goods in more detail? Why? Discussion questions Would a good policy for fishery management aim at obtaining the maximum sustainable yield? Why or why not? When we speak of an optimal equilibrium from an economic point of view, will this equilibrium also be generally ecologically sound? What might cause economic and ecological principles to conflict in fisheries management? Discuss the effects of technological improvement in an industry that uses a common-property resource. For example, consider a technological improvement in fishing equipment that cuts the costs of a fishing boat trip in half. Technological progress usually increases net social benefit. Does it do so in this case? How would government policies relating to this industry affect your answer? Relevance for EU environmental policy Very high! State of the environment can be considered to be a collective good. Climate policy intends to maintain a public good, resource policy intends to maintain CPRs Methods also relevant for collective action problems Conclusions on collective goods Many challenges to approach sustainability can be explained with analytical framework on collective goods. Since pure public goods are rare, some private interest in the provision of sustainability may exist! Governments are as important as private actors and social groups. Task is to set incentives and to enable collective action (incl. implementation), i.e. more than to design optimal public policies (and complain about weak implementation) => corporate and civil actors are at least as important as politicians! Externalities and External Effects Externality = the impact of one person‘s action on the well-being of a by-stander outside price mechanism Papers written by Coase (1960) and Kapp (1952/1954). An externality may exist whenever the welfare of some agent, either a firm or a household, depends directly on his or her activities and on activities under the control of some other agent as well. An externality exists when the consumption or production choices of one person or firm enter the utility or production function of another entity without that entity’s permission or compensation. Example: a power station that generates emissions of SO2, causing damage to building materials or human health, imposes an external cost. This is because the impact on the owners of the buildings or on those who suffer damage to their health is not taken into account by the generator of the electricity when deciding on the activities causing the damage. Externalities and External Effects Positive and negative externalities Negative externality = social cost exceed production cost, e.g. environmental pollution Positive externality = production cost exceed social cost, e.g. education Characteristics from negative externalities: Non-rival: when A is suffering from pollution, others will not suffer less (e.g. ambient air pollution) Non-excludable: there is no intention to harm but no agent can be excluded from consuming the bad Negative Externalities pc sc p Positive Externalities p pc o sc e e o q e = production cost (pc) lower than social cost (sc) => too much of a bad thing q e= production cost higher than social cost => under-provision of a good thing Elements for analysing externalities Potential damages in physical terms (impacts on health, mortality, accidents, ecosystems both on an inter-temporal and inter-regional scale) Directly or indirectly affected persons and their perception about the damages Monetary analysis on damage costs, willingness-to-pay for compensation, avoidance costs Driving forces for causation: certain technologies and legal persons (e.g. firms) Dealing with risks, uncertainties, perception, stakeholders’ self-organisation Internalisation of External Costs: Two Approaches © © © © © © © Private solution (Coase): bilateral bargaining among polluters and victims. May even work without markets or states. Task: defining property rights (access, use, compensation etc.) E.g. if a company causes dust and other forms of local pollution it may compensate affected people and/or reduce level of pollution. Economic incentives by tradable permits: defining a price, => a right to pollute according to social costs Task: defining a target But: administrative costs, information deficits, scope may lead to collusion and new externalities for third parties (e.g. by high chimneys) Governmental solution (Pigou): tax seize according to externality, e.g. eco-tax Price signal to which actors will respond Task: defining a tax rate (=price) e.g. if the external cost of producing electricity from coal were to be factored into electricity bills, between 2 and 7 cents per kWh would have to be added to the current price of electricity in the majority of EU Member States (ExternalE project) But: Administrative costs, information deficits, political opportunism, rent-seeking Economics of ecotaxes Steering effect: price increases to P2, demand decreases to Q2 Industry and/or consumers may complain, but prices reflect real costs => new social optimum Issues: size of the tax, tax base, special considerations for e.g. large users Economics of environmental subsidies Positive externalities provided by open land (and nature protection); marginal social benefits exceed marginal private benefits. Subsidy increases supply up to social optimum of Qs Issues: size of the subsidy, instrument (e.g. tax reduction, direct payment) Internalisation strategies by firms? … see e.g. Matsushita Group’s Environmental Accounting In-house Economic Benefits Category Reduction effects 1-year effect 3-year accumulated Environmental Conservation Benefits (in physical values) Category Reduced amount (tons) Environmental conservation effects in business activities CO2 emissions Environmental Conservation Benefits (In monetary values: Unit: Mln yen) Reduction of energy conservation costs at business units 2,085 Reduction of waste disposal costs 598 1,680 Reduction of water and sewerage costs 139 572 NOx emissions (Japan) 674 134 7 2,864 SOx emissions (Japan) Controlled chemical substance emissions (Japan) 29.5 2 Reduction of packaging materials and distribution costs Profit on sales of resources for recycling (Unit: Mln yen) 1,000 Profit on the sales of waste from plants for recycling 4,130 (1-year) GHG emissions (CO2 excluded) Final disposal of industrial waste Profit on the sales of end-of-life products for recycling Total 6,813 291(1-year) 8,243 16,350 Monetary conversion coefficients (yen/ton): CO2 ,9,450; NOx, 66,315; Sox, 50,159; Water use Environmental conservation effects during product use CO2 emissions4) (Japan) Packaging materials use Corrugated cardboard 22,398 212 -138,348 -1,307 45 11,773 1.45 mil m3 52 606,000 5,727 2,380 -237 Expanded polystyrene Total 4,738 VOC, 50,090; ground water, 36; electricity, 23. (yen/kWh) Reduction in CO2 and electricity costs during product use are calculated based on figures of four major home appliances (TVs, refrigerators, air conditioners, washing machines). Customer Economic Benefits Reduction in electricity 4 costs during product use) Electricity 1,603.2 Mln kWh (Unit: Mln yen) Cost 36,874 FAQs on externalities Why do the numbers differ? => Based on different methodologies: e.g. avoidance costs, damage costs, analysis of preferences of the population affected, multi criteria decision analysis with stakeholder involvement) etc., quantification of impacts e.g. of health effects, valuation of services from ecosystems, discount rate, ethical assumptions... Can the numbers be used, given that range of uncertainties? => Yes, but more for a quantitative comparison of magnitudes, impact assessment of response options. Numbers have been used in EU legislation, e.g. in Large combustion plant directive. Conclusions on externalities No accurate or official data yet, framework still improving on criteria for evaluation, treatment of uncertainties, internalization of externalities, discussion with stakeholders Relationship between pressures and impacts (causeeffects) often uncertain => transparency important Nevertheless useful for preparing decision-making Strategic decision-making should also look at low-risk alternative options, step-by-step approaches for internalization, strategic partnerships, long-term options => sustainability seen as a positive goal, driven by private involvement! See also EU research project under www.ExternE.info Course work 1. Consider the following supply and demand schedule for steel: Price (€) 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180 Qd (mill t) 200 180 160 140 120 100 80 60 40 Qs (mill t) 20 60 100 140 180 220 260 300 340 Pollution from steel production is estimated to create an external cost of sixty € per ton. Show the external cost, market equilibrium, and social optimum on a graph. What kinds of policies might help to achieve the social optimum? What effects would these policies have on the behavior of consumers and producers? What effect would they have on market equilibrium price and quantity? Discussion 1. 2. 3. Discuss your reaction to the following statement: “Solving the problems of environmental economics is simple. It is just a matter of internalizing the externalities.” Does the theory of externalities apply to most or all environmental issues? What are some practical problems involved in internalizing externalities? Describe examples where the principle works well, and some where it is more problematic. A pollution tax is one policy instrument for internalizing externalities. Discuss the economic policy implications of a tax on automobiles, a tax on gasoline, or a tax on tailpipe emission levels as measured at an auto inspection. How about taxing gas guzzling vehicles and subsidizing efficient hybrid vehicles? Which policy would be the most efficient? Which do you think would be most effective in reducing pollution levels? According to the principle expressed in the Coase theorem, private property rights and voluntary market transactions can be effective tools for environmental policy. Discuss some cases where private property and market-based solutions can be effective, and others in which they are less appropriate. How can policymakers best combine market-oriented and public-choice mechanisms to craft effective environmental policy? 2) When economics comes in Sustainability economics ‘Weak’ and ‘strong’ sustainability „weak“ sustainability Maintaining the capital stock of an economy Papers e.g. from Pezzey (1992), W. Beckerman Assumes substitutability between natural and man-made capital Requires “currency” for measuring changes among different types of capital Recent approaches ‘genuine savings’ (Atkinson 1997), ‘comprehensive wealth’ (measures human capital and technology (Hamilton, World Bank): investments of an economy should be higher than asset losses in nature => Relevant and reliable for resource-dependent countries (e.g. Bolivia). If applied it may nevetheless jeopardize the natural environment, especially if long-term losses and losses in other regions are insufficiently accounted for. Case study: Bolivia ‘Weak’ and ‘strong’ sustainability „strong“ sustainability Maintaining the natural capital stock of an economy Papers e.g. by Herman Daly (1991) Does not assume any substitutability between natural and man-made capital Requires physical indicators for measuring changes within natural capital Leads to quality targets and emission targets Accepts low or declining economic growth rates (steady-state) Visible e.g. in UNFCCC Art 2: no negative interference with climate, ability to adapt for ecosystems, EU has adopted 2º C target! Ecological economics = branch of economics devoted to strong sustainability => Relevant for stringent environmental policy. ‘Golden Rules’ of Sustainability Use renewable resources in such a way that the harvest rate is not greater than the natural regeneration rate (=maximum sustainable yield). Keep the emissions to the natural environment below the assimilative capacity of the environment (=carrying capacity). Use non-renewable resources in a way that their reduced stock is compensated for by increases in renewable resources (Hartwick-Rule). Allow for that a given standard of living can be secured from a reducing stock of resources. David Pearce, Kerry Turner, Herman Daly Natural Capital -> Ecosystem Services The benefits people obtain from ecosystems Source: MEA 2005 Consequences of Ecosystem Change for Human Well-being Consensus on ‘weak’ and ‘strong’ sustainability Limited absorptive capacities of natural ecosystems are generally accepted ‘Life-supporting functions’ of natural capital should be maintained Investment rule (genuine savings) seen as guiding principle for improvements especially for resourcedependent economies Environmental indicators and targets have been developed Question to course participants: Is such consensus closer to ‘weak’ or ‘strong’ sustainability? What is the role of economics? The “decoupling challenge”: How to enhance quality of life with less use of nature? “Happiness” Quality of life Economic Sustainable Production growth Pressure on the environment Social capital Health, Security Income, Investments Innovation Sustainable Growth - the ‘Kuznets curve’ Observed phenomenon: as economies grow, emissions first grow and then decline. Follows Kuznets observation (1955) that rising per-capita income were associated with initial increase in inequality and a subsequent decline. Crucial questions: what are the relevant pressure indicators, what are the driving forces behind any relative and absolute decoupling between economic growth and environmental pressure? Market drivers: factor endowments, relative prices, competition and innovation, specific demand, etc Policy drivers: expressed preferences of voters, effectiveness of environmental policy / ministry, quality of regulation Question to course participants: what would you consider to be relevant indicators and drivers? How would you conduct an analysis on the evidence of the Kuznets curve? Why sustainability challenges can be considered a business case Environmental policy (triggered by sustainability challenges) has an impact on industry ‘Porter Hypothesis’ (1991, 1995 etc): regulation can stimulate innovation that may offset compliance costs and may lead to new markets New ‘green’ markets emerge as a result of changing preferences and policies Economic explanations include hidden potentials for cost savings (‘X-Inefficiency’, Leibenstein, 1966), bounded rationality (Simon 1979), etc. Importance of business strategies: change management towards precautionary, pro-active approaches Discussion questions Does an improved standard of living necessarily means more consumption? Is it possible to envision a future in which consumption of many goods and natural resources would decline? Specify your perspecitive! If so, what would it mean for innovation and economic growth? How might the perception of these questions differ between, say, a citizen of France, US, Lithuania, India? Task Read the EU progress report on the SDS 2007 Präsentation: Ayse Yildrim, Andreas Suckow „Environmental Kuznets Curve“: Findet in der EU eine Entkoppelung der Umweltbelastungen vom BIP statt? Theorie und Empirie
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