[In]Sights for
Competitive Regions:
Demography
[In]Sight: Australia’s regional competitiveness index is the lens regions need to make the most of
their advantages. This report provides an analysis of Demography in [In]Sight: Australia’s regional
competitiveness index.
Other analysis reports, a detailed user guide and the online interactive map including 624
regional competitiveness profiles are available at www.regionalaustralia.org.au/insight
[In]Sights for Competitive Regions: Demography – January 2015
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Making the Most of Our Regional Population
The characteristics of regional populations shape the competitiveness and economic opportunities
for regional Australia.
Many regional areas have the population dynamics to be competitive and successful both now and
into the future.
Regional Cities are vital to the future of Australia. With over 4.3 million residents collectively, they
enjoy the advantages of population size.
The potential of Australia’s regional cities deserves greater recognition in policy thinking and the
discussion of national futures. Regional Cities – with larger populations on their size – have
competitive advantages in terms of larger markets for goods and services as well as
concentrations of skilled labour to support economic development.
The demographic profile of much of regional Australia presents its share of challenges. Whilst
south-eastern Australia has population mass and density on its side, it needs more working-age
people to offset the effect of an increasingly greater proportion of people past working age.
Less densely populated and more remote regions, in particular, face greater challenges to
maintain and develop their economic infrastructure given the resources available from within their
local populations.
Relative population declinei, as evident in many regional areas, presents challenges for the
development of competitive and resilient economies. Planning a postivite economic future is all the
more difficult for regions facing the drift of younger workers towards the larger centres.
On a positive note, this report also highlights the demographic opportunity in northern Australia.
Three aspects of northern Australia’s population underpin its demographic advantage: its Regional
Cities; recent growth in the population; and its relatively young population profile.
[In]Sights for Competitive Regions: Demography – January 2015
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[In]Sights for Competitive Regions: Demography – January 2015
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[In]Sights for Competitive Regions: Demography – January 2015
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Introduction
This report provides an overview of the Demography theme in [In]Sight: Australia’s regional
competitiveness index. The importance of people and population to a region’s competitiveness
necessitates the inclusion of Demography theme within this release of [In]Sight. Measures in the
demography theme provide represent the size, change, composition and distribution of each Local
Government Area (LGA) and region’s population.
Demography is something that each region must work with to succeed. Creating change in the
profile of a population is relatively difficult to achieve through public policy. Although some
actions – such as a targeted migration policy may be beneficial - longer term, broader trends
(lower birthrates, increased life expectancy and an ageing population) tend to shape a region’s
demographic profile and therefore its competitive position.
Each local government area is grouped into a regional type - Regional Cities, Connected Lifestyle
Regions, Industry and Service Hubs and the Heartlands. This paper reviews the broad
demographic patterns evident across these types, as well as at State and Territory level (see
figure 2).ii
This report is one of a series of ten examining the economic competitiveness themes contained
within [In]Sight.
Measuring Demography in [In]Sight 2014
Demography is measured using six indicators in [In]Sight 2014:

Population size (sourced from ABS Regional Population growth 2012-13 data): The number
of people who live in an area. Larger populations offer bigger markets for goods and
services as well as more skilled workers. Larger populations lead to a higher ranking.

Population growth (sourced from ABS Regional Population growth 2012-13 data): The rate
of change in the size of population over the last year. Growing populations expand local
and regional economies. Higher population growth leads to a higher ranking.

Population density (sourced from ABS data): The number of people per square kilometre.
Density concentrates market demand and enables people to better connect with each other
to drive innovation and change. Higher density leads to a higher ranking.
Population turnover (sourced from ABS data): The rate at which people are moving to and
from a region. Lower turnover indicates stability in a regional population, supporting
stronger social capital and institutions. Lower turnover leads to a higher ranking.
Senior dependency (sourced from National Regional Profile 2012 and ABS data): The
number of people aged over 64 years compared to the working age population (15-64
years). Populations with higher proportions of older people may require a greater focus on


[In]Sights for Competitive Regions: Demography – January 2015
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
service delivery than economic development. Regions with a lower senior dependency ratio
are therefore ranked higher.
Youth dependency (sourced from National Regional Profile 2012 and ABS data): The
number of people under 15 years compared to the working age population (15-64 years).
Younger populations tend also to require a greater level of services. Regions with a lower
youth dependency ratio are ranked higher.
Further information on this theme and the measurement and construction of the index is available in
the [In]Sight 2014 User Guide which is available here.iii
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Demography and Competitiveness in Regional Australia
Within Regional Australia, the Regional Cities lead the competitiveness rankings in the
Demography theme. The Gold Coast, Townsville and Ipswich in Queensland, Newcastle in New
South Wales and Geelong in Victoria are amongst the most competitive local government areas
(LGAs) in demographic terms.
Figure 1: LGA competitiveness for Demography, Australia
Source: RAI [In]Sight: Australia’s regional competitiveness index
Population Size
Over 8 million Australians live in regional Australia. Only some areas of regional Australia can
compete on population size. Competitive options for the Gold Coast in south-east Queensland with
more than half a million residents compared to remote Maralinga Tjarutja in South Australia (with
an estimated population of 75 people at last count) are considerably different simply as a result
of their population size.
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The Demography theme reveals that just over half of all regional Australians live in a Regional City
(Figure 2). With over 4.3 million people, collectively Regional Cities are home to nearly as many
people as Sydney or Melbourne.
Regional Cities - not just the major metropolitan areas on the east and west coasts of the continent
- are experiencing population growth, despite receiving a lower proportion of net overseas
migration than the capital cities.
The bulk of the regional Australian population, however, remains concentrated in eastern Australia.
Queensland, NSW and Victoria have a network of Regional Cities that provide a competitive
population size and density that augment the competitiveness of Sydney, Melbourne and Brisbane.
12 %
Connected Lifestyle Areas
20%
54%
Heartlands
Industry and Service Hubs
14%
Regional Cities
Figure 2: Proportion of regional Australians living in each type of regional area
Source: RAI [In]Sight: Australia’s regional competitiveness index
Population Density
[In]Sight measures population density as a contributor to economic competitiveness. [In]Sight uses
population numbers from the Census and geographic areas to derive summary figures of persons
per square kilometre.
Despite technological advancements in transport and communications, the comparative advantage
of regions with more highly concentrated populations are clear: businesses have sufficient market
size to provide a wider range of goods and services; centres of industry contentration and
specialization may more readily evolve with a sufficient labour force and the costs of delivering
and maintaining hard infrastructure tend to be lower.
Across Australia’s regions, population density tends to vary closely with proximity to the coast, but
also in relation to larger population centres and high-traffic transport corridors.
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Population Turnover
Regional areas of Australia have substantially lower population turnover than metropolitan areas –
almost 10% less at 47.9% of residents leaving an LGA over the 2012-13 year.
Amongst the LGA regional types, Regional Cities have the lowest overall population turnover at
just 42.8%. Population turnover tends to be lowest in the Regional Cities in the south-eastern states
of New South Wales and Victoria.
Table 1: Lowest population turnover rates in Regional Cities (2012-13)
LGA
Population Turnover
State
Latrobe
25.7%
Victoria
Wollongong
26.4%
New South Wales
Greater Geelong
27.1%
Victoria
Lake Macquarie
29.4%
Lake Macquarie
Shellharbour
29.7%
New South Wales
Greater Bendigo
29.7%
Victoria
Greater Shepparton
29.8%
Victoria
Shoalhaven
30.6%
New South Wales
Gosford
31.2%
New South Wales
Tamworth Regional
32.3%
New South Wales
Population Growth
The trend in recent decades has been towards the concentration of populations in larger centres.
Larger population centres support the provision of a larger range of goods and services, present
opportunities for specialization diversification and tend to become the focus of industrial activity.
A particular cluster of regional population growth is located in the South-West of Western
Australia. Serpentine-Jarrahdale leads the growth figures at 7.8 per cent for all LGAs including
metropolitan areas.
Population decline increases the difficulty of maintaining services in a local community. Regions
that experienced a population decline between 2012 and 2013 tended to be those with more
smaller, dispersed populations - the geographically larger town-based Heartlands LGAs.
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Particular areas of interest include Western Victoria, Western New South Wales, south-western
Queensland and the agricultural areas of South Australia. Substantial areas of the Wheatbelt in
Western Australia also experienced population decline.
Senior Dependency
The long-term increase in the proportion of Australians over working-age has been well-explored.
Nationally, relatively fewer working-age people are available to support government
expenditures.iv As summarized in [In]Sight, Senior Dependency – the relative size of people aged
65 and over – is an important indicator in the context of an ageing Australia.
Heartlands and Connected Lifestyle Areas have relatively higher proportions of seniors overall.
Victor Harbor in South Australia has seven seniors for every ten working age people. Queenscliffe
in Victoria and Great Lakes in New South Wales have six seniors for every ten working age
residents. Remote areas tend to have the lowest senior dependency ratios, reflecting less
availability of health and aged care services, but also the poor life expectancy in many of our
remote communities and a lack of aged care services.
Young Dependency
Regional Australia also tends to have more children (under 15 years) than metropolitan areas.
Regional Australia has a young dependency rate of 31.9% compared to 26.1% for metropolitan
Australia.
[In]Sights for Competitive Regions: Demography – January 2015
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Demography in Different Types of Regions
The RAI identifies four distinct and important types of regions that have different development
pathways (Figure 2).
Figure 2: Four types of regional communities
Each type of region has its own potential given its demography. Summary results by regional type
across each group for each indicator in Demography are shown in Table 2 below.
Overall, regional cities also include the most demographically competitive parts of regional
Australia. Regional cities are the largest and most densely populated areas of regional Australia.
They are also generally growing with stable populations and youth and aged dependency ratios
at or below those in other regions.
On average, every type of region in Australia has a growing population. This is important to
emphasise as popular misconceptions paint regional Australia as having a widespread decline in
population.
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Table 2: Relative demographic competitiveness amongst the regional types
Group
Regional Cities
Connected Lifestyle
Industry and
Service Hubs
The Heartlands
Population
Size
Most Competitive
Competitive
Highly Competitive
Least competitive
(99,597 people)
(18,154 people)
(30, 196 people)
(5, 824 people)
Population
Density
Most Competitive
Less competitive
Less competitive
Least competitive
(163/sq. km)
(32/sq. km)
(46/sq. km)
(7/sq. km)
Population
Growth
Most competitive
(1.6%)
Highly competitive
(1.4%)
Less competitive
(1. 2%)
Least competitive
(0.5%)
Population
Turnover
Most competitive
Less competitive
Least competitive
(42.8%)
(48.7%)
Highly competitive
(45.5%)
Youth
dependency
Competitive
Competitive
Competitive
Competitive
(30.4%)
(30.3%)
(31.0%)
(32.6%)
Senior
dependency
Most competitive
Least competitive
(28.4%)
Less competitive
Highly competitive
(24.7%)
(24.2%)
(26.0%)
(48.9%)
All regional types also have higher levels of youth and senior dependency than metropolitan
areas. On average there are around three children for every ten people of working age in
regional Australia. This means that the demand for services will be higher per capita in regions.
The proportion of seniors is highest in Connected Lifestyle Regions. This reflects the trend for older
Australians to move from the city to regions nearby. These levels of dependency mean that on
average each area will require more services for aged people. The RAI’s work on Super Boomers
demonstrates that aged Australians can provide alot of valuable business experience and social
capital to regional communities. Servicing this population is also a source of economic opportunity
in these regions that could counter the competitive downsides.
Population Turnover is lowest in Regional Cities on average and only slightly higher in Industry and
Service Hubs. Connected Lifestyle Regions have higher rates of turnover, suggesting many regions
in these groups experience population shifts that may challenge stability and social capital.
[In]Sights for Competitive Regions: Demography – January 2015
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Demography in Regional Australia - A State Perspective
6.2%
2.7%
Regional NSW
4.9%
Regional VIC
Regional QLD
32.1%
7.9%
Regional WA
Regional SA
28.6%
TAS
17.6%
NT
Figure 3: Proportion of regional Australians in each state
Source: RAI [In]Sight: Australia’s regional competitiveness index
Northern Australia has a clear competitive advantage in Demography, particularly in population
growth.
At a state level, the states of Western Australia, Queensland and Northern Territory individually
are growing almost twice as fast the other states.
5.0%
4.0%
Connected Lifestyle Areas
3.0%
Heartlands
2.0%
Industry and Service Hubs
1.0%
Regional Cities
0.0%
-1.0%
NSW
NT
QLD
SA
TAS
VIC
WA
Figure 4: Population growth in regional Australia, state perspective
Source: RAI [In]Sight: Australia’s regional competitiveness index
The relative competitiveness of the regional areas of each state and the Northern Territory is
summarized in Table 3 below. The Northern Territory comes out on balance as having the most
favourable regional Demography, despite being less competitive in terms of youth dependency.v
[In]Sights for Competitive Regions: Demography – January 2015
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This suggests that if the Northern Territory can build competitive human capital outcomes, sustain
the rate of growth, and convert its current youth dependency into a productive and healthy future
workforce, demography will provide significant opportunities for prosperity.
Table 3:
Summary of Demography and competitiveness in the regional areas
of each state and the Northern Territory
Regional
NSW
Regional
VIC
Regional
QLD
Highly
competitive
Highly
competitive
Most
competitive
(24,128
people)
(30,036
people)
(36,846
people)
Population
Density
Competitive
Competitive
(33/sq. km)
(29/sq. km)
Population
Growth
Competitive
Population
Turnover
Population
Size
Youth
dependency
Senior
dependency
Regional
WA
TAS
NT
Competitive
Competitive
(17,659
people)
(13,336
people)
Less
Least
Highly
Competitive Competitive competitive
Highly
competitive
Most
competitive
(21/sq. km)
(14/sq. km) (41/sq. km)
(61/sq. km)
(92/sq.km)
Less
competitive
Highly
competitive
Highly
Less
competitive Competitive
Least
competitive
Most
competitive
(0.47%)
(1.08%)
(0.01%)
(1.88%)
Highly
Competitive
Most
Competitive
Competitive
Competitive
Competitive
(36.48%)
(36.13%)
(41.63%)
(46.47%)
Competitive
Highly
competitive
Less
competitive
Most
competitive
Highly
competitive
Least
competitive
(30.00%)
(35.06%)
(29.54%)
(29.18%)
(36.46%)
Less
Competitive
Less
Competitive
Most
competitive
(29.80%)
(27.84%)
(8.29%)
(0.60%)
(32.19%)
Less
Competitive
Least
competitive
(30.60%)
(32.07%)
(48.6%)
Least
Less
competitive Competitive
(5,916
people)
(1.35%)
(7,953
people)
(0.27%)
Least
Competitive
competitive
(40.65%)
(69.83%)
Competitive
(31.42%)
Competitive Competitive
(17.91%)
Regional SA
(21.57%)
Regional Victoria is also very competitive. The most competitive population turnover, highly
competitive results in population size and youth dependency underpin this result.
[In]Sights for Competitive Regions: Demography – January 2015
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Other states have more average levels of competitiveness. New South Wales is competitive for
most indicators including density, growth and youth dependency. Growth in the working age
population would put regional New South Wales in a much more competitive position.
Lack of population size and population density, and high population turnover are the key
demographic constraints in Western Australia. While South Australia is limited by poor population
growth, smaller population size and higher rates of senior dependency, it is more competitive in
terms of population density and youth dependency.
Competitiveness in Tasmania is constrained by low population growth and a high rate of senior
dependency. Tasmania needs to attract younger working age people to change its competitive
position in this theme.
Making the Most of Regional Australia’s Demographic Advantage
Demography patterns are relatively difficult to shift in the short term through regional development
strategies. The task for regional leaders is to understand and work with demographic challenges
and to look for innovative ways to overcome a lack of population size and density.
The RAI’s work on population mobility provides some important insights on how this can be
achieved.
Regions with an ageing population can look to harness the opportunities presented by Super
Boomers to offset the impacts of dependency while also looking to develop aged services as an
important local industry. Regions seeking working age people can look to leverage the trend for
working age Regional Returners to leave the city looking for the regional lifestyle. Immigration is a
further opportunity which will be the subject of a future release by the RAI.
Northern Australia
Demography in northern Australia is an area of great, untapped potential for the nation. Although
the south-east parts of the country are home to the majority of Australia’s regional population, the
potential competitiveness of the north remains largely unrecognised and poorly leveraged.
Population growth in northern Australia is on average 1.47 per cent compared to 0.7 per cent for
regional LGAs in the southern part of Australia. The mining boom has been a significant factor in
attracting new people to the area, however the challenge for regions seeking to take advantage
of their mineral and other regions is to ensure that the benefits are sustained.
More about how northern Australia can leverage its competitiveness to bring future success is
contained in the RAI’s report Rethinking the future of northern Australia's regions: more than mines,
dams and development dreams.
[In]Sights for Competitive Regions: Demography – January 2015
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To learn more about how people in regional Australia support our nations competitiveness please
also see the two other papers in the [In]Sights for Competitive Regions series:

Human Capital: find out if regional Australia is ‘work-ready’ and how we can ensure that
the next generation will be able to grow Australia in the future.

Labour Market Efficiency: find out how are we engaging the potential workforce in different
parts of regional Australia and where are the best opportunities to maximise people’s
contribution.
These publications and the [In]Sight Regional Competitiveness Profiles are available for review at
www.regionalaustralia.org.au/insight
Regional comparisons, data downloads and expert advice from the RAI are also available for
people and organisations interested in putting [In]Sight to work.
[In]Sights for Competitive Regions: Demography – January 2015
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Appendix – Demography Theme Rankings, LGAs in Regional Australia
Top Performing Regional City LGAs
LGA
Rank
State
Newcastle
14
New South Wales
Gold Coast
60
Queensland
Darwin
69
Northern Territory
Wollongong
87
New South Wales
Ipswich
88
Queensland
Lake Macquarie
93
New South Wales
Townsville
95
Queensland
Greater Geelong
103
Victoria
Cairns
107
Queensland
Gosford
114
New South Wales
LGA
Rank
State
Queanbeyan
144
New South Wales
Serpentine-Jarrahdale
146
Western Australia
Gawler
147
South Australia
Mitchell
171
Victoria
Boddington
180
Western Australia
Livingstone
187
Queensland
Byron
191
New South Wales
Moorabool
197
Victoria
Macedon Ranges
198
Victoria
Baw Baw
199
Victoria
Top Performing Connected Lifestyle Regions
[In]Sights for Competitive Regions: Demography – January 2015
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Top Performing Industry and Service Hubs
LGA
Rank
State
Mount Gambier
131
South Australia
Warrnambool
155
Victoria
Karratha
161
Western Australia
Kalgoorlie/Boulder
173
Western Australia
Central Highlands
175
Queensland
Broome
176
Western Australia
Greater Geraldton
181
Western Australia
Busselton
182
Western Australia
Alice Springs
195
Northern Territory
Port Hedland
210
Western Australia
LGA
Rank
State
Weipa
133
Queensland
Port Lincoln
150
South Australia
Maralinga Tjarutja
151
South Australia
Sandstone
152
Western Australia
Wiluna
153
Western Australia
Derby-West Kimberley
154
Western Australia
Whitsunday
159
Queensland
Laverton
164
Western Australia
Ngaanyatjarraku
178
Western Australia
Meekatharra
183
Western Australia
Top Performing Heartland LGAs
[In]Sights for Competitive Regions: Demography – January 2015
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About Us
Independent and informed by both research and ongoing dialogue with the community, the
Regional Australia Institute (RAI) develops policy and advocates for change to build a stronger
economy and better quality of life in regional Australia - for the benefit of all Australians.
To find out more about the RAI contact us at [email protected] or visit
www.regionalaustralia.org.au/
Disclaimer and Copyright
This research report translates and analyses findings of research to enable an informed public
discussion of regional issues in Australia. It is intended to assist people to think about their
perspectives, assumptions and understanding of regional issues.
No responsibility is accepted by the RAI, its Board or its funders for the quality of advice or
decisions made by others based on the information presented in this publication.
Unless otherwise specified, the contents of this report remain the property of the RAI. Reproduction
for non-commercial purposes with attribution of authorship is permitted.
Contacts and Further Information
To discuss [In]Sights for Competitive Regions: Demography further please contact:
Jack Archer
Deputy Chief Executive Officer
[email protected]
(02) 6260 3733
Further information on the work of the RAI can be found at www.regionalaustralia.org.au
[In]Sights for Competitive Regions: Demography – January 2015
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End Notes
i
Population declie, or lower population growth relative to metropolitan areas
All trends are explored based on the averages of the regional LGAs within the given area. This
approach is to explore the trends within the given area rather than the overall result.
ii
iii
http://www.regionalaustralia.org.au/insight-userguide-pdf/
iv
Third Intergenerational Report, Department of the Treasury, Australian Government, 2010.
The RAI notes however that this result is partly supported by a low senior dependency ratio in the
Northern Territory. Lower life expectancy amongst significant parts of the population and
movement of people to the South to access aged care services are factors contributing to fewer
older people in the population. A healthier population with a life expectancy similar to the rest of
the nation and better aged care services are important goals for the Northern Territory. This result
should be read in combination with human capital where health and education outcomes are
included in [In]Sight.
v
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