Future Requirements to Combat
Transnational Organized Crime
SOCNORTH – CANSOFCOM – JSOU Symposium
“SOF ROLE IN CTOC”
April 8, 2015
Celina B. Realuyo
Professor of Practice
William J. Perry Center for Hemispheric Defense Studies
National Defense University
[email protected]
Disclaimer: The views expressed in this presentation are those of the author and do not reflect the official policy or position of
the Center for Hemispheric Defense Studies, the National Defense University, the Department of Defense, or the U.S. Government.
Source: Celina B. Realuyo, WJPC
[email protected]
Leading National Security Issues in 2015
ISIL in Syria & Iraq
AQAP, Al Shabaab
Boko Haram
Radical Islam
vs. West
Paris Attacks
Russia/Ukraine
Drug Violence in
Latin America
Immigration Crisis
A Rising
China
U.S. and NATO in
Afghanistan
Ebola Outbreak
CYBERSECURITY AND PRIVACY
Iran and North
Korea’s
Nuclear
Ambitions
Source: Celina B. Realuyo, WJPC
[email protected]
Chairman Dempsey's 2-2-2-1 Strategic Concept
“Here's my elevator speech about
strategy. Two, two, two, one:
Two heavyweights will influence our
future strategy, Russia and China.
Two middleweights, North Korea and
Iran. Two networks, al-Qaida and
transnational organized crime from
our southern hemisphere. And one domain - cyber. And those things
have influenced, are influencing me
today and will influence you in the
future. One of them or more.”
-- General Martin E. Dempsey, Atlantic Council, May 14, 2014
Source: Celina B. Realuyo, WJPC
[email protected]
Globalization Has Empowered Illicit Networks
Source: LA Times
Global Supply Chain Management
Four Critical Elements
MATERIEL
MANPOWER
What is Moving?
What Resources are Accessed?
How is Technology Used?
Who is Moving?
Who is in Control?
Who is Enabling?
MONEY
MECHANISMS
Who is Funding?
How is Revenue Generated?
Where is Money Going?
What Modes of Conveyance?
Land, Air, Sea routes?
What about Cyberspace?
Source:
Celina
B. Realuyo
Source:
Celina
B. Realuyo
The Three Dimensions
of Global Security Threats
SPACE
DEPTH
Breakdown of
Borders
Non-linear cause
and effect
Transnational
Threats
Immense
complexity
INCREASED COMPLEXITY
Limitations on
Governance
Second and third
order of
consequences
Hot Pursuit?
TIME
Source: Celina B. Realuyo
24/7 around the
globe
Source: Celina B. Realuyo, WJPC
[email protected]
Convergence of Terror-Crime Networks
around the World
Facilitators
Security
Prosperity
Society
Governance
Terrorists
Criminals
“Terrorists are motivated by God while criminals are motivated by greed.”
-- Moises Naim
Source: Celina B. Realuyo, WJPC
[email protected]
The Convergence of Terror-Crime Networks
around the World
–
–
–
–
–
–
–
ISIL in Iraq, Syria and Beyond
Al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula
Al Shabaab in the Horn of Africa
Boko Haram in Nigeria
Taliban, Haqqani Network, Al Qaeda in Afghanistan
FARC in Colombia/Shining Path in Peru
Hezbollah and its Global Facilitators
National Security Challenges in the Americas
Weak
Institutions
Citizen
Security
Illicit
Networks
External
Actors
Inequality
Corruption
Natural
Disasters
Source: Celina B. Realuyo, WJPC
[email protected]
Combating the Convergence of Illicit Networks
United
Nations
Regional
Organizations
National
Strategies
Source: Celina B. Realuyo, WJPC
[email protected]
The New Global Security Environment
U.S. Strategies to Counter Transnational Threats
TRANSNATIONAL
THREATS
Counter-Terrorism
CounterProliferation
Counter-Narcotics
Cybersecurity
Counter-Crime
Source: Celina B. Realuyo, WJPC
[email protected]
The New Global Security Environment
in an Age of Globalization
Instruments of National Power
Interagency Cooperation
Diplomatic
Security
Prosperity
Society
Governance
Law
Enforcement
Information
Financial
Intelligence
Military
Economic
Source: Celina B. Realuyo, WJPC
[email protected]
Countering Illicit Trafficking via
Transit Zone Operations/Interdictions
Source: Celina B. Realuyo, WJPC
[email protected]
The New Global Security Environment
Threats from the Convergence of Illicit Networks
Illicit Activities
Narcotics
Trafficking
Security
Prosperity
Society
Governance
Human
Trafficking
Kidnapping
Arms
Trafficking
Counterfeiting
Financial
Crimes
Cybercrime
Corruption/
Extortion
Source: Celina B. Realuyo, WJPC
[email protected]
Critical Enablers of TOC and Illicit Networks
LEADERSHIP
ILLICIT
ACTIVITIES
CORRUPTION
TOC
LOGISTICS
TECHNOLOGY
WEAPONS
PERSONNEL
FINANCING
Source: Celina B. Realuyo, WJPC
[email protected]
Requirements to Better Address CTOC Gaps
Appreciate the Complexity of Illicit Networks
Understand TOC Business Models and Economics
Develop Cyber and Technological Capabilities vs. TOC
Identify and Exploit TOC Vulnerabilities
Source: Celina B. Realuyo, WJPC
[email protected]
UNCONVENTIONAL
WARFARE
FOREIGN
INTERNAL
DEFENSE
DIRECT ACTION
SOF ASSETS TO DETECT, DISMANTLE, AND DETER
TRANSNATIONAL ORGANIZED CRIME
SOF
COUNTERTERRORISM
SPECIAL
RECONNAISSA
NCE
Future SOF Requirements for CTOC
LEGAL FRAMEWORK FOR MILITARY ROLE IN CTOC
DEFINITION OF SUPPORT TO LAW ENFORCEMENT FOR CTOC
INTERAGENCY RULES OF ENGAGEMENT IN CTOC OPERATIONS
BUILDING PARTNER CAPACITY FOR CTOC
Source: Celina B. Realuyo, WJPC
[email protected]
NDAA FY2015 U.S. Expanded DOD CN/CT Authorities
Sec 1011: Extension of Authority to Support Unified CD and CT Campaign in Colombia
1021 Authority extended by two years (thru FY16)
Sec 1012: Extension and Modification of Authority of DOD to provide Support for CD
Activities of Other Governmental Agencies
1004 Authority extended by three years (thru FY17)
1004 Authority expanded to include activities to Counter Transnational Organized Crime
(CTOC)
Sec 1013: Extension and Expansion of Authority to Provide Additional Support for CD
Activities of Certain Foreign Governments
[1033 Authority previously extended thru FY16]
Sec 1014: Extension of Authority for Joint Task Forces to Provide Support to Law
Enforcement Agencies Conducting Counterterrorism Activities
1022 Authority expanded to support law enforcement agencies conducting Counter
Transnational Organized Crime (CTOC) activities
1022 Extended availability of funds through FY20
Sec 1015: Sense of Congress Regarding Security in the Western Hemisphere
DOD should continue its efforts to combat transnational organizations in the WESHEM
DOD should increase its maritime, aerial, and intelligence, surveillance, and
reconnaissance capabilities in the region
Source: U.S. Southern Command
Source: Celina B. Realuyo, WJPC
[email protected]
White House FY 2016 Budget Request
National Security Aspects
Keeping Americans Safe at Home and Abroad
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
6.
7.
Degrading and Defeating the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL)
Countering Russian Pressure and Aggressive Action with our European Allies
Promoting Prosperity, Security and Good Governance in Central America
Protecting our Nation Against Cyber-Attacks
Confronting the Threat Posed by Infectious Diseases
Combating Prescription Drug and Heroin Abuse
Honoring Our Commitment to Veterans
Source: Celina B. Realuyo, WJPC
[email protected]
To Combat Terrorism, Crime, and Illicit Networks
Foster Collaboration and Communities of Interest
at the National, Regional, and International Levels
Facilitators
Terrorists
Criminals
VS.
Intelligence
Military
Law
Enforcement
Source: Celina B. Realuyo, WJPC
[email protected]