Exploring Extreme Weather Impacts on
Transportation System Operations in Europe:
Opportunities for Climate Change Adaptation and
Mitigation
Aviation and Extreme Weather: Findings from Extreme Weather
Impacts on European Networks of Transport Project and Other
European Projects
T. Muehlhausen, M. Kreuz
INSTITUTE OF FLIGHT GUIDANCE
Selected major airports per climate zone
COP
LHR
AMS
MUC
FCO
Slide 2
INSTITUTE OF FLIGHT GUIDANCE
Visibility during winter month at different European Airports
(METAR-analysis from 1997 to 2010, 05:00-23:00)
100%
19.7
90%
27.4
28.9
16.9
25.3
24.4
Visibility distribution [%]
80%
70%
35.8
60%
31.2
50%
49.7
35.8
CAT I-CAVOK
CAT I VMC (>=10000m)
CAT I VMC (<10000m)
CAT I-IMC
CAT II
CAT III
45.1
42.7
45.6
11
40%
14.2
9.2
30%
9.6
20%
10%
16.8
13
13.7
34.8
23.2
0%
17.3
28.9
19.6
18.9
14.5
15.7
3.1
1.1
0.6
0.2
0.4
0.7
0.8
Munich
Stuttgart
Frankfurt
Berlin
Düsseldorf
Hamburg
London
Airports
Slide 3
INSTITUTE OF FLIGHT GUIDANCE
Causal diagram
Slide 4
INSTITUTE OF FLIGHT GUIDANCE
Examples from Causal diagram
Decreasing Fog → Reduction of higher separation
→ Increase in capacity → Delay reduction
Increasing Wind / Thunderstorms → Runway / Airport closure
→ Decrease in capacity → Delay / Cancellation
Higher temperature → Less de-icing → Faster turnaround
→ Increase in capacity → Delay reduction
Slide 5
INSTITUTE OF FLIGHT GUIDANCE
Traffic safety impacts on aviation
Low weather thresholds to avoid situations resulting in a harmful event
Significant influence of even slight weather phenomena on operations
Adverse weather involved as a contributing or circumstantial factor in
many accidents
High safety level in aviation will not decrease in future
Slide 6
INSTITUTE OF FLIGHT GUIDANCE
Situation
Aviation is highly weather dependent
Main area concerned are the approach, departure and ground
operations, i.e. airport and TMA operations
High safety standards result in change of operations procedures even for
small weather effects
The impact of climate changes on aviation is not predictable for the time
being
Nevertheless, weather will have an increased impact on aviation for
another reason…
Slide 7
INSTITUTE OF FLIGHT GUIDANCE
Weather related delay in air transportation
Source: Eurocontrol Network Operation report Nov. 2011
Slide 8
INSTITUTE OF FLIGHT GUIDANCE
Example comparison
London Heathrow (LHR) vs.
Helsinki Vantaa (HEL)
LHR:
Declared capacity:
Departures per year:
No. of runways:
88 mv/hr
239.280 mv (2008)
2
HEL
Declared capacity:
Departures per year:
No. of runways:
80 mv/hr
92.651 mv (2008)
3
LHR operates closer to the limit, i.e. is more sensitive for disturbance
e.g. Cleaning a runway from snow
Slide 9
INSTITUTE OF FLIGHT GUIDANCE
Prognosis
Slide 10
INSTITUTE OF FLIGHT GUIDANCE
Slide 11
INSTITUTE OF FLIGHT GUIDANCE
Increasing weather sensitivity
Increasing number of airports will operate near the capacity limit
Extension of airports very expensive and not accepted among the
society due to environmental impact
Room for measures against negative weather impacts will decrease
Network effects worsen the situation
Delay due to weather phenomena will increase
New technical and operational options must be developed to reduce
weather impacts
Slide 12
INSTITUTE OF FLIGHT GUIDANCE
Conclusion
Weather has a great impact on aviation
Each airport has ist own characteristic according to
weather phenomena
Network effects can be significant, i.e. analysis of local weather
phenomena is not sufficient
Quantitative analysis requires case-by-case studies
E.g. for airports typical hour values can be used for quantifying the
consequences of airport closure due to bad weather
More information at http://ewent.vtt.fi/
Slide 13