2016 Presidential White Paper SERIES Paper #11 donald trump November 3, 2015 INTRODUCTION Donald Trump is a career businessman and real estate developer whose personal fortune from real estate and television has been valued by Forbes at $4.5 billion1, however Trump says his worth should be valued in excess of $10 billion2, while Bloomberg’s analysis pegged it at $2.9 billion.3 Forbes gives Trump a score of 5 out of 10 on its Self-Made Score, an indication that at least some of his wealth was inherited.4 Trump’s father was a New York real estate developer who, according to the Washington Post, “…built an empire of some 27,000 residential units… and was worth nearly $300 million at his death in 1999.”5 Politically, Trump built numerous relationships with government officials in New York. His first political registration was as a member of the Republican Party, and he first appeared on the national political scene in 1988 at the Republican National Convention in support of then-presidential nominee George H. W. Bush. During an interview at the convention, Trump rejected the Republican label and, when asked why he was a Republican, said, “I have no idea,” adding, “I just believe in certain principles of the Republican Party.”6 In 1999, he joined the Independence Party of New York7 and planned to challenge Pat Buchanan for the Reform Party presidential nomination, but eventually withdrew calling the party a “total mess.”8 Trump registered as a Democrat in 2001, and remained a Democrat for the next eight years. He also was an outspoken critic of President George W. Bush – even urging Nancy Pelosi to impeach him9 – before rejoining the Republican Party in 2009.10 However, he took another leave of absence from the GOP in 2011 before returning in April 2012.11 In both 2008 and 2012 Trump hinted at possible presidential runs, but ultimately set his sights on the 2016 Republican presidential nomination. TAXES The Club for Growth is committed to lower taxes – especially lower tax rates – across the board. Lower taxes on work, savings, and investments lead to greater levels of these activities, thus encouraging greater economic growth. As a presidential candidate, Donald Trump issued a tax reform proposal that is a far cry from the positions he’s historically taken on taxes. While his latest plan would significantly lower tax rates for individuals and businesses, questions remain about his lack of specificity on “…the deductions and 1 Forbes, 9/29/2015 Photo credit: Gage Skidmore loopholes” that he claims would be reduced or eliminated.12 In addition, the Trump tax proposal includes a one-time 10% repatriation tax on “…corporate cash held overseas… followed by an end to the deferral of taxes on corporate income earned abroad.”13 Conservatives have generally opposed efforts to repeal the deferment of taxes on corporate earnings generated overseas, while President Obama14 and the left-leaning Economic Policy Institute have argued that, “Ending deferral could increase corporate tax revenue by over $50 billion per year.”15 Donald Trump has been a frequent advocate of higher taxes, and believes a flat tax, under which all Americans pay the same percentage, is the wrong approach.16 As a presidential candidate, Trump has reiterated that he believes taxes should graduate upwards with income17 and he has advanced a proposal to double the amount investment managers pay by removing the 12 DonaldJTrump.com, Tax Reform 2 Business Insider, 7/15/2015 7 CNN, 10/25/1999 13 DonaldJTrump.com, Tax Reform 3 Bloomberg News, 7/28/2015 8 Chicago Tribune, 2/14/2000 14 Fortune, 2/5/2015 4 Ibid. 9 CNN, 10/15/2008 15 Economic Policy Institute, 3/31/2014 5 Washington Post, 7/22/2015 10 PolitiFact, 8/24/2015 16 Fox News, August 2015 6 Youtube, CNN Interview 11 Ibid. 17 Ibid. 2016 Presidential White Paper Series - Donald trump carried-interest exception.18 Moreover, as discussed in the Free Trade section of this paper, Trump’s frequent threats of high tariffs would result in what would effectively be a higher sales tax paid by American households and businesses.19 the Democrat Party, the Democrat Party left me.”27 In 1999, Donald Trump proposed the largest tax hike in history, a one-time wealth tax of 14.25% to be paid by high-net-worth individuals.20 When it was pointed out to him that it was unlikely for a businessperson to maintain 14.25% of their wealth in cash, Trump reasoned, “You’d sell off assets.”21 Even today he refuses to admit that his plan was a mistake, proclaiming instead that, “It was a great proposal,” and adding, that if circumstances were similar, “I would do that all day long.” 22 reducing government spending. Less ENTITLEMENT REFORM spending enhances economic growth by America’s major entitlement programs The wealth tax proposal was not the only past instance of Trump supporting drastic tax increases. In 1991, Trump testified before a House budget subcommittee, claiming, “The fact is that 25% for high income people, … it should be raised substantially…” 23 His one self-serving caveat was that by investing in real estate the tax would be lowered.24 Trump passes off his terrible record on taxation by insisting he has evolved much like President Reagan.25 It should be noted that unlike President Reagan, Trump does not adhere to the core philosophy of supply-side economics that drove Reagan’s tax policy.26 To this day Trump continues to repeat the mantra that the rich should pay proportionately more, an idea that directly conflicts with basic pro-growth principles. Reagan also did not claim a personal evolution, but famously said, “I didn’t leave SPENDING The Club for Growth is committed to enabling lower taxes and diminishing the government’s economically inefficient allocation of resources. In campaign speeches, Donald Trump has promised tremendous spending increases on infrastructure28 and the military.29 However, he fails to address, in concrete terms, what projects his spending increases would fund, beyond building a border wall30 and a Veterans Hospital in New Hampshire.31 When asked about those who claim Trump’s immigration plan would cost $400 to $600 billion and “…reduce real GDP by $1.6 trillion,” he answered, “Well, first of all they’re wrong,” but did not elaborate.32 Meanwhile, he has offered few details on spending cuts, with the exception of promises to “cut out huge sections of the Department of Education”33 and to gut the Environmental Protection Agency,34 two departments with total spending that reflects about two percent of annual federal spending.35 Trump’s more common answer for balancing the budget and covering his proposed spending seems to be his oft-repeated claim that he will improve the economy so much that 27 A History of the U.S. Political System, Harris, 2009, p. 254 28 Business Insider, 6/16/2015 18 Bloomberg Business, 8/26/2015 19 CNN, 7/28/2015 20 PolitiFact, 9/2/2015 21 ABC News, 11/10/1999 22 CNN, 8/6/2015 23 CSPAN, 11/21/1991 24 Ibid. 25 CNN, 9/1/2015 26 Fox News, 8/12/2015 the budget will balance itself. 36 Trump also contends that he will “take the money back” from China and Mexico, by taking jobs back from those countries.37 are already insolvent. The Club for Growth supports entitlement reforms that enable personal ownership of retirement and health care programs, benefit from market returns, and diminish dependency on government. Donald Trump’s most consistent position on health care has been his support of a government-run, single-payer health care system. When asked in September 2015 if he still supports universal health care, Trump responded, “I am going to take care of everybody. I don’t care if it costs me votes or not. Everybody’s going to be taken care of much better than they’re taken care of now.” Trump promised to “…make a deal with existing hospitals to take care of people.” When asked, “Who pays for it?”, Trump said, “The government’s gonna pay for it.”38 During his time in the Reform Party, Trump left no doubt about his stance when he proclaimed, “I love universal.”39 He then further entrenched his position when he wrote, “I’m a conservative on most issues but a liberal on this one [health care]…40 We must have universal healthcare.”41 Rather than backing away from this antigrowth stance Trump recently defended his health care philosophy by arguing that a government-run, single-payer system works well in Canada and Scotland and 29 National Journal, 9/16/2015 30 USA Today, 9/23/2015 31 Bloomberg, 8/27/2015 32 ABC “This Week” Transcript, 9/23/2015; NBC News, 8/19/2015 33 South Carolina Tea Party Convention Speech, 1/19/2015; CNN, 10/1/2015 34 CBS News, 9/23/2015 35 US Department of Education 2015 Budget; EPA FY 2015 Budget in Brief PAGE 2 36 Daily Signal, 5/21/2015; CBS News, 10/13/2015 37 Fox News, 5/21/2015; CBS News, 10/13/2015 38 CBS News 60 Minutes transcript, 9/27/2015 39 NBC News, 10/8/1999 40 The America We Deserve, 2000, p. 206 41 The America We Deserve, 2000, p. 207 2016 Presidential White Paper Series - Donald trump could’ve worked in the U.S. 42 growth in the marketplace. Despite his ongoing support for a singlepayer health care system, Trump also claims he will “absolutely repeal and replace Obamacare.”43 In its place he promises “something terrific.”44 However, Trump has yet to expand on his health care plan and how it would differ from Obamacare.45 Donald Trump has supported the abuse of eminent domain laws. He voiced clear support for the U.S. Supreme Court’s 2005 Kelo ruling saying, “I happen to agree with it 100%.”51 In Kelo the high court ruled that property could be taken by the government and redistributed to another private owner as long as it was deemed to be in the public’s best interest as determined by the government.52 On Social Security, Medicare, and Medicaid, Trump vows to keep them as is46 even as these programs move toward insolvency. While he once called for raising the retirement age to 70, Trump said recently, “…not anymore because now what I want to do is take money back from other countries that are killing us and I want to save Social Security. And we’re going to save it without increases.”47 Trump further states, “It all does take care of itself if we could get the engine of this country going again.”48 Recent attempts by Congressman Paul Ryan (WI-1) to reform entitlements were met with harsh criticism from Trump who proclaimed, “The Democrats are laughing at the stupidity of the Republicans and this Ryan plan.” 49 Trump explained his position at the 2013 CPAC event, telling conservatives to leave entitlements alone if they want to win elections.50 REGULATION Excessive government regulation stymies individual and business innovation necessary for strong economic expansion. The Club for Growth supports less and more sensible government regulation as a critical step toward increasing freedom and 42 Fox News GOP Debate, 8/6/2015 Trump was unsuccessful in 1994 in his effort to have the city of Bridgeport, CT use eminent domain to condemn five businesses that were on land where Trump wanted to build an amusement park.53 In 1996, Donald Trump wanted a local agency in Atlantic City, New Jersey to condemn a home, a restaurant, and a shop because they were blocking plans for a parking area and lawn for his nearby casino. When the owners refused his offers he took them to court in an attempt to take their property by force. Had he been successful, the owners would have lost their properties and been compensated for millions of dollars less than what he eventually offered them.54 In Scotland, several families living in homes near a golf course planned by Trump spent two years living under his threat of using Scotland’s power of compulsory purchase orders to acquire their homes. While Trump has claimed he never made such an attempt, the local government produced a 2009 letter from Trump’s lawyers demanding exactly that.55 His primary reason for obtaining the properties was simply to improve the view from his golf course.56 In other matters of government regulation, Trump has threatened to force U.S. companies to manufacture domestically or 43 New York Daily News, 8/3/2015 44 Forbes, 7/31/2015 45 Bloomberg, 7/30/2015 46 Daily Signal, 5/21/2015 face financial retaliation from the government.57 He has also expressed concern over CEO compensation calling it “a total and complete joke.” 58 Finally, he recently complained that Rich Lowry of National Review should be disallowed from television appearances and fined by the FCC for language Lowry used in praising the performance of one of Trump’s opponents during a Republican debate.59 FREE TRADE Free trade is a vital policy necessary for maximizing economic growth. In recent decades, America’s commitment to expanding trade has resulted in lower costs for consumers, job growth, and higher levels of productivity and innovation. Donald Trump’s hostility towards free trade is unmatched by any other major presidential candidate, with the possible exception of Bernie Sanders. Trump recently said, “We need fair trade, not free trade,”60 and his proposed policies are strongly protectionistic. At the core of his trade policy is a 25% tariff on Chinese imports and a 35% tax on American auto manufacturers who defy Trump’s order to produce vehicles in the United States.61 In 2011, he also advocated a blanket 20% tax on all imports as well as a 15% penalty tax on American companies participating in outsourcing.62 Trump has called the North American Free Trade Agreement “a disaster,” and said, “We will either renegotiate it or we will break it.”63 It’s been estimated that Trump’s proposed tariff on Chinese imports alone will cost Americans $117 billion per year,64 57 Detroit News, 6/16/2015 51 Fox News, 7/19/05 52 Institute for Justice, Kelo Eminent Domain 53 Washington Post, 8/19/2015; NY Times, 58 CBS News, 9/13/2015 59 Washington Post, 9/23/2015 60 CBS News 60 Minutes transcript, 9/27/2015 47 CBS News 60 Minutes transcript, 9/27/2015 6/3/1994 61 CNN, 7/28/2015 48 Fox News, November 2013 54 New York Times, 7/21/2014 62 Time to Get Tough, 2011, pg. 65 49 From the Desk of Donald Trump, 6/9/2011 55 STV News, 1/31/2011 63 CBS News 60 Minutes transcript, 9/27/2015 50 CPAC 2013, 3/15/2013 56 Guardian, 5/26/2010 64 U.S. Census Bureau, Foreign Trade, 2014 PAGE 3 2016 Presidential White Paper Series - Donald trump but Trump justifies his extreme brand of anti-growth protectionism as a necessary step in fighting Chinese currency manipulation.65 When challenged about whether his proposed tariff on cars would ultimately drive up prices for Americans, Trump explained, “…maybe a person will buy fewer cars over the course of a lifetime. Who cares?”66 The idea of restricting trade with China via tariffs is nothing new, having been proposed in 2005 by Senator Chuck Schumer (D-NY), who received at least four Trump campaign donations, and by Senator Lindsey Graham (R-SC).67 Trump himself has promoted his tariff plan for quite some time telling a crowd in 2011 how he would attempt to get jobs back from China, “[It’s] so easy. I’d drop a 25% tax on China… Listen you motherf***ers, we’re going to tax you 25%.”68 Commission.”70 Trump believes school choice and competition would improve the education of those receiving vouchers, as well as the education of those choosing to remain within the public school system.71 When comedian Bill Maher parodied Concerning Common Core, the current nationwide education initiative built on the foundation of the No Child Left Behind Act, Trump refers to it as a disaster.72 Specifically, he claims that a focus on federal education standards will always be inferior to state-driven education policy.73 utan, Trump sued him claiming a breach The Club for Growth supports broad school choice, including charter schools and voucher programs that create a competitive education market including public, private, religious, and non-religious schools. More competition in education will lead to higher quality and lower costs. Donald Trump has been consistent in his support for school choice, including vouchers, charter schools, and opportunity scholarships.69 In 2000, he compared the current educational system to a monopoly and argued that school choice would create healthy competition. He commented that the public school system is similar to the Bell Telephone of old, and, “It would set off every antitrust alarm bell at the Department of Justice and the Federal Trade Obama’s birth certificate by offering the same amount for documentation proving that Trump was not the child of an orangof contract,77 but withdrew the suit two months later.78 Just this year, Trump sued Palm Beach County because he felt the airport manager was intentionally influencing the FAA to direct planes over his mansion. He requested $100 million in damages claiming the fumes and residue caused “direct TORT REFORM physical damage” to his property.79 Trump The American economy suffers from has been fighting the airport in court for excessive litigation which increases the more than 20 years, despite purchasing the cost of doing business and slows economic mansion long after the airport was built.80 growth. The Club for Growth supports major reforms to our tort system to restore a more just and less costly balance in SCHOOL CHOICE Trump’s offer of $5 million for President tort litigation. Tort reform is an area where Donald Trump has a proven record, and that record is abysmal. As reported by the Center for Public Integrity, Trump has been directly involved in approximately 100 federal lawsuits, as of 2011.74 This is not necessarily surprising given his longstanding role as a businessman, but the contents of these lawsuits are indicative of an individual who has little interest in tort reform. In 2006 Trump sued a New York Times journalist for $5 billion because Trump felt his reputation was harmed by the author’s alleged low-balling of Trump’s net worth.75 The suit was dismissed and, after an appeal from Trump, that dismissal was affirmed.76 While there are many more examples, these three instances illustrate how Trump has repeatedly engaged in frivolous, retaliatory litigation, and how he regularly appears to abuse the legal system as a tool for publicity or political gain, as opposed to an instrument of legal remedy and relief. POLITICAL FREE SPEECH Maximizing prosperity requires sound government policies. When government strays from these policies, citizens must be free to exercise their constitutional rights to petition and criticize those policies and the politicians responsible for them. Donald Trump believes the U. S. Supreme Court was wrong in their Citizens United ruling, which determined that individuals and corporations are free to donate as they see fit to political action committees.81 As for caps on donations, Trump says, “A limit’s okay.”82 70 The America We Deserve, 2000, p. 83 71 Ibid. 77 Reuters, 2/11/2013 72 Washington Post, 9/16/2015 78 Law 360, 4/2/2013 73 Simpson College Speech, 4/8/2015 79 CNN, 1/13/2015 74 Center for Public Integrity, 5/5/2011 80 Trump: What’s the Deal? 7/3/1991 4/28/2011 75 Bloomberg, 7/21/2015 81 Trump Campaign Rally in NH, 8/14/2015 69 The America We Deserve, 2000, p. 81 76 Ibid. 82 Trump Campaign Press Conference in NH, 65 Fox News, The O’Reilly Factor, 8/24/2015 66 CNN, 8/20/2015 67 Washington Post, 7/29/2005 68 Trump Political Speech in Nevada, PAGE 4 2016 Presidential White Paper Series - Donald trump Despite these beliefs, Trump has heavily involved himself in the world of political finances over the years. However, when asked if his giving to lobbyists and special interests was part of the problem, Trump answered, “Absolutely. 100%. I was on the other side. They will do whatever I want, up until you decide to run… It’s called playing the game. I was a businessman. I made a fortune.”83 By his own admission he has hired many lobbyists and “knows them all.”84 However, Trump now says, “Our system is broken.” 85 When asked if he would seek more regulation he said, “I love the idea of campaign finance reform.”86 POLITICAL ACTIVITY & ENDORSEMENTS Robust political activity is essential to producing a federal government that is more respectful of free markets and produces more pro-economic growth policies. The Club for Growth’s PAC has been active in some of the more central battles within the Republican Party nominating process in recent years, supporting pro-growth candidates over pro-government ones. Donald Trump’s political affiliations have varied wildly over the years. In the late 1990’s, Trump proclaimed the GOP was “just too crazy right,” and joined the Independence Party of New York with the intent of running for president under the affiliated Reform Party banner.87 From 2001 to 2009, Trump registered as a Democrat88 and spoke out frequently against President George W. Bush, calling him “evil,”89 “the worst president in the history of the United States,” 90 and expressed shock and disappointment over how John Kerry lost the 2004 presidential election.91 Arlen Specter and ex-Governor of Florida Charlie Crist.100 Trump rejoined the GOP in 2009,92 only to leave the party from 2011 to 2012, indicating on his registration form that he wished to remain unaffiliated.93 Democratic candidates, Trump’s top donation recipient was Charlie Rangel Having spent the majority of the last decade as a registered Democrat, it comes as little surprise that Trump’s political contributions heavily favored Democratic candidates through the end of 2011, when he suddenly cut off nearly all Democratic donations.94 Prior to this point, Trump had donated $497,690 to Republicans and $581,350 to Democrats over a 22 year span.95 Among Trump’s frequent Republican recipients were John McCain (AZ), Arlen Specter (PA), and the American Crossroads PAC. Since 2012, Trump gifted the GOP another $463,450 over three years while only contributing $3,500 to Democrats.96 Trump has defended his donation history, arguing, “…I’ve helped Nancy Pelosi, I’ve helped Reid. I’m a businessman.”103 In return, Trump says, “They always treated me nicely.”104 In 2010, Trump donated to Sen. Harry Reid (D-NV).97 Trump gave donations to Ted Kennedy and Hillary Clinton.98 Trump donated $50,000 to former Obama aide Rahm Emanuel’s mayoral campaign.99 Trump has donated to anti-growth Republicans who later left the party, including former Pennsylvania Senator Until his recent abandonment of (D-N.Y.),101 a politician found guilty of 11 counts of ethics violations.102 On the topic of endorsements, Trump publically supported President George H. W. Bush in 1988.105 In 2007, Trump expressed disappointment over John Kerry’s 2004 loss to President George W. Bush, and noted that Hillary Clinton was a very talented and capable leader who would probably be the 2008 Democratic nominee.106 Hedging his prediction, he also trumpeted thenSenator Obama as “a star” who had “really done an amazing job.”107 In the end, Clinton failed to be nominated, and Trump, soon to be rejoining the Republican Party, endorsed Sen. John McCain in 2008. He clarified that he was not endorsing the ticket, and when asked if he would’ve endorsed Hillary Clinton, said he preferred not to answer.108 Most recently, Trump endorsed Mitt Romney in 2012 before later accusing him of “choking.”109 90 CNN, October 2007 91 Ibid. 92 New York State Board of Elections, 8/14/2015 9/15/2009 83 CNN, 7/22/2015 93 New York State Board of Elections, 100 Center for Responsive Politics, 2/17/2011 101 Daily Caller, 6/3/2015 102 Washington Post, 11/16/2010 12/21/2011 103 CNN, 6/28/2015 94 NPR, 7/28/2015 104 Ibid. 95 PolitiFact, 7/9/2015 105 CNN, August 1988 96 Ibid. 106 CNN, October 2007 97 Center for Responsive Politics, 2/17/2011 107 Ibid. 8/6/2001 98 Washington Post, 4/26/2011 108 CNN, 2008 89 NY1 News, November 2008 99 Ibid. 109 New York Post, 5/22/2015 84 Trump Campaign Rally in NH, 8/14/2015 85 Huffington Post, 8/20/2015 86 Trump Campaign Rally in NH, 8/14/2015 87 NBC News, 10/24/1999 88 New York State Board of Elections, PAGE 5 2016 Presidential White Paper Series - Donald trump SUMMATION Donald Trump is not a pro-growth conservative. He has advocated universal, government-run health care,110 a massive new “wealth” tax,111 and the abuse of eminent domain so the government could forcibly buy up private property and redistribute it to commercial developers.112 While Trump may claim new positions since taking those stances, he has yet to fully renounce them. In fact, he remains supportive of singlepayer health care and abuse of eminent domain, while remaining steadfastly opposed to free trade. In 2004, when asked by CNN’s Wolf Blitzer, “Do you identify more as a Democrat or a Republican,” Trump said, “… in many cases I probably identify more as a Democrat.” He then explained, “I’ve been around for a long time, and it just seems that the economy does better under the Democrats than the Republicans.”113 Consistent with that viewpoint, Trump has donated frequently and heavily to liberal Democrat politicians.114 lenge … overall, I believe he’s done a very good job.”116 Too often Trump has been on opposite sides of the same issue. He’s come out against Obamacare while maintaining that government must pay to ensure universal health care. Trump calls for lower taxes but supported the largest tax increase in history.117 One place where Trump has been consistent is equally troubling: on trade, he has repeatedly called for harmful, big government tariffs,118 especially ones that would provoke a massive trade war with China.119 In light of Donald Trump’s past statements and positions, the Club believes he would not be a pro-growth president. While Trump has clearly touched a nerve with Americans who are frustrated with Washington, his approach to politics is not unlike the worst of Washington politicians. Instead of taking consistent and principled stands, he has jumped on popular bandwagons. He trashes Hillary Clinton today, but he praised her as a terrific hard worker in the last two election cycles, and hoped she’d get the Democratic presidential nomination in 2008.115 Today he criticizes Barack Obama, but in 2009, as Obama was overseeing the bailouts, Trump assessed the president this way: “I would hire him [Obama]. He’s handled the tremendous mess he walked into very well. He still has a daunting task ahead of him but he appears to be equal to the chal- 110 The Advocate, 2/15/2000 111 Ibid. 112 ABC News, 6/1/1998 116 Bloomberg, July 2009 113 CNN, 2004 117 PolitiFact, 9/2/2015 114 OpenSecrets.org 118 CNN, 7/28/2015 115 Fox News, 3/28/2012 119 Fox News, 4/1/2011 PAGE 6
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