Air Force Association
Budget Control Act 2011
Impact on our Air Force
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1
Air Force Association
• Who am I
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The Set Up
• 1996 – Last time the NDAA and Defense
budget process completed before Oct 1
• USG Debt in 2010 - $14,025,215,218,708.52.
– 7 months for the National Debt to increase
from $13 trillion on June 1, 2010 to $14 trillion on
Dec. 31.
• Defense Budget - $663.7 billion (+12.7% of
total spending)
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Budget Control Act 2011
• Enacted August 2, 2011
• Effort to resolve a Debt-Ceiling Crisis
• Approximately $1 Trillion in discretionary
spending cuts over 10 years
• Split between Defense/Security and NonDefense
• 50% of cut targeted Defense which was 13%
of the total budget
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4
Air Force in 25 Years of
Decline
• Air Force Aircraft
– 1991 8,637 A/C – 2017 5,517 A/C
• Personnel
– 1991 846,000 – 2017 664,000 (Active, Reserve,
Guard, and civilians)
• Combat Coded Fighter Squadrons
– 1991 134 – 2017 55
Cold War Force
Sequestration Force
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5
Sequestration’s
Immediate Impact
• BCA 2011 impact hit hard in Summer 2013
• Large, immediate cuts
• Readiness dropped to levels almost as low as early
1980s (Hollow Force)
• Stood down flying squadrons for more than three
months and canceled needed exercises
• Deferred aircraft & depot mx
• Deferred infrastructure repairs
• Delayed critical modernization
• Broke faith with civilian Airmen with Furlough
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Work Arounds
• Overseas Contingency Operations
– OCO plus-up ranged from $80B to $59B in 2017
– Supports cost of war effort in Iraq, Syria,
Afghanistan and elsewhere
– Includes some readiness funding to prepare for
OCO deployments and readiness
• Omnibus Bills 2014 and 2016 authorized
spending above BCA Caps for two year
periods-Did not remove the BCA Caps
however
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Result
• Manpower critical to capability, particularly
Depot Maintenance
• Man-hours lost to Sequestration
– 180,000 Civilians 22 day furlough planned
• Early Retirements granted –
– Experience personnel retired and replace by lesser
experienced personnel
• Education and Training funding reduced
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Result
• Thousands of Air Force Civilians work at the
Air Force Depots, furloughs caused work
stoppage
• Total Depot Personnel Furloughed – 36,136
– Hill AFB Personnel Furloughed – 10,303
– Robins AFB Personnel Furloughed – 12,443
– Tinker AFB Personnel Furloughed – 13,390
Air Force lost 7.8 million man-hours of productivity affecting every mission area
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Result
• Aircraft availability reflects the capability to conduct
air operations and are a barometer of capability
• F-16 M/C Rate
– 2011 74.05%
2015 73.04%
• B-1 M/C Rate
– 2011 53.16%
2015 47.48%
• KC-135 M/C Rate
– 2011 79.57%
2015 75.16%
• E-3 M/C Rate
– 2011 71.12%
2015 75.76%
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Result
• Today’s Air Force is the smallest, oldest and
least ready
• Less than 50% of the combat coded Air Force
is ready for full-spectrum operations
• Air Force is 4,000 maintenance airmen short
across the service
Air Force is 4,000 maintainers short Vs the requirement and it increases every
month as the F-35 fleet grows. Impacts every aircraft in the Air Force fleet
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Result
• Effort to control Federal Debt was a ineffective
– 2012 Federal Debt: $16,066,241,407,385.89
– 2013 Federal Debt: $16,738,183,526,697.32
– 2014 Federal Debt: $17,824,071,380,733.82
– 2015 Federal Debt: $18,150,617,666,484.33
– Projected 2016 Federal Debt:
$19,300,000,000,000+
Federal Debt has increased over 27% in the five years for the BCA
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Result
• USAF Aircraft 2011:
– Total Force 5,584 A/C
• USAF Aircraft 2016:
– Total Force 5,433 A/C
• USAF Personnel 2011:
– 688,000 Active, Civilian, Reserve, Guard
• USAF Personnel 2016:
– 658,000 Active, Civilian, Reserve, Guard
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Result
• Federal Debt since 2011 increased $3.2T
• Air Force Fleet size decreased 151 A/C
• Air Force personnel decreased 30K
• Air Force full spectrum readiness is at less
than 50%
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Result
• The effort was aimed at controlling our
massive Federal Debt but…….
• Federal Debt 2011 - $14,790,340,328,557.15
– DOD Base Budget 2011 – $548.9 billion
• Federal Debt 2015 - $18,150,617,666,484.33
– DOD Base Budget 2015 - $560.4 billion
• Federal Debt 2016 - $19 trillion +
Sequestration was intended to be medicine for skyrocketing Federal Debt
When the medicine is ineffective should it be continued?
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Twenty Five Years of War
• Desert Storm Began Jan 17 1991
• Air Force never left Southwest Asia
• Deployed for and conducting Combat
Operations every day since Aug 9, 1991
• Areas of operation included, Iraq, Kuwait,
Afghanistan, Somalia, Libya, Yemen
• Multiple Humanitarian efforts
• Airpower now the key to almost all campaigns
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Twenty Five Years of War
• BUT Defense spending is straining capability
for mission success
• Budget Control Act of 2011 – Sequestration
cuts mandated for 10 years
• In 2013 Air Force had to make severe cuts and
ultimately stood down and laid off thousands
of civilian employees. Depots hit hardest
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A Turbulent World
• Demand is increasing…capability advantage over competitors
is shrinking, RISK is increasing
• Airpower primary response against ISIS in the Middle East
while still heavily engaged in Afghanistan
• Russia aggressive and muscular in Ukraine
• Nuclear and belligerent North Korea
• China flexing power in the Pacific
• Competitors closing gap in space, cyber, strategic
deterrence…fielding advanced air defenses & their own 5th
generation aircraft
• Air Force is one of the busiest, smallest, oldest and least ready
fleets in our history
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Road Ahead
• Air Force is a major contributor in on-going
combat operations
• US Armed Forces commitment to Syria, Iraq,
Afghanistan and others areas is growing
• F-35, KC-46, B-21 funding competing every
year for readiness funding
• An already tired Air Force has no relief in the
near future and beyond
700 to 1,000 Fighter Pilot shortage now and forecasted for next five years
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Road Ahead
• No change apparent to the BCA 2011 law
– Sequestration still in existence for 5 more years
• OCO Plus up and Omnibus Bills to reset the
Defense budget likely to continue
• Air Force must modernize and conduct
combat operations in an uncertain budget
environment
• A return to Sequester Budget Caps in 2018 will
be devastating
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Air Force Association
• Questions and Comments
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