SEPTEMBER 2016 Japanese Corporate Governance: The Sun Starts to Shine Todd Wax, cfa | Portfolio Specialist Abenomics employs a “three-arrow” approach. Taken together, the three tenets aim to kick-start the economy and put it on a sustainable, higher growth track. One component of the third arrow—corporate governance reform—reflects a monumental change in Japan. The “Three Arrows” Explained Since his reelection in 2012, Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe has brought significant change to a country in desperate need of it. He is moving to fulfill the promise of his first run as the nation’s leader in 2006/2007, when he resigned before the end of his term for health reasons. In an effort to put an end to two decades of economic stagnation, Abe invoked what is now widely known as “Abenomics” with a goal of lifting economic activity by creating inflation. A core tenant of economic theory is that if prices slowly and steadily rise (sustainable inflation), there is an incentive to consume now, while prices are lower. Such consumption can lead to healthy economic activity and prolonged prosperity. Japan had been facing the o pposite problem, the daunting challenge of deflation, for two decades. Falling prices lead to the opposite incentive: delayed consumption amid expectations for lower prices down the road, and thus prolonged economic stagnation. Abenomics employs a “three-arrow” approach. The first is aggressive monetary policy designed to make the yen more cost-competitive. The second arrow involves expansionary fiscal policy. The third, called the “Japan Revitalization Strategy,” comprises structural reforms. Taken together, all three aim to kick-start the economy and put it on a sustainable, higher-growth track. Here we will discuss one component of the third arrow: corporate governance reform. Addressing Principal–Agent Conflict For years, the Japanese market has lacked many of the corporate governance strengths present in most developed world markets, contributing to paltry Japanese equity market returns. Strong corporate governance protects shareholders and so encourages investment. In response to Abe’s reform agenda, the Japanese Exchange Group in August 2013 created the JPX Nikkei 400 Index “composed of companies with high appeal for investors, which meet requirements of global investment standards, such as efficient use of capital and investor-focused management perspectives. The new index will promote the appeal of Japanese corporations domestically and abroad, while encouraging continued improvement of corporate value, thereby aiming to revitalize the Japanese stock market.”1 In June 2015, the Tokyo Stock Exchange, which is owned by Japan Exchange Group, adopted a code to improve corporate governance practices among Japanese companies. One new requirement in the code mandates that listed companies have at least two independent external directors: boards at many Japanese firms have traditionally been captive to company management. The purpose of corporate boards is to oversee company management in the interest of the company owner. Often, the interests of company owners and those of company executives can differ, a problem known as “principal–agent conflict.” thornburg.com | 877.215.1330 As Japanese companies are ever more focused on shareholder value, capital returns to shareholders have increased in record numbers, already reflecting improved corporate governance. Company management acts as an agent representing the principal (or owner), but many conflicts are inherent, and can be difficult for company owners to oversee. It is the job of corporate boards to oversee management and limit this conflict, highlighting the importance of external directors who are truly independent of company management. This corporate governance code reflects a monumental change in Japan, reflecting a desire to focus on shareholder wealth and to open its markets more to the global investment community. Listed companies are now increasing the external director count, with over 90% of listed companies holding more than one external director. Admittedly, this is notably lower than in other developed world markets, but it is certainly progress. Some companies are actively focusing on increasing profitability and returns on equity, as well as on diminishing inter-corporate investments to increase value to shareholders. Many Japanese companies have long been seen as inefficient users of capital, culminating in large conglomerates of multiple inter-corporate entities. Such large and inefficient structures are generally less valuable as a single entity—a “sum of the parts”—than they would be as separate units. That is, they could have a higher breakup value. Dividend Payouts, Buybacks Rise As Japanese companies are ever more focused on shareholder value, capital returns to shareholders have increased in record numbers, already reflecting improved corporate governance. Indeed, dividend payouts have increased and share buybacks are up an estimated 60% since the creation of the corporate governance 2 code. These are all signs that Japanese companies plan to treat shareholders in a friendlier manner, potentially creating a tailwind for Japanese equity investors. Jefferies’ Head of Research Japan, Zuhair Khan, has performed extensive research on the make-up of corporate boards in Japan. He concluded that investing in companies with the strongest board practices should generate superior returns to those in the overall Japanese market, as represented by the TOPIX 500.2 Investing in Japan, Thornburg Investment Management has targeted companies with stronger board practices and focus on returns to shareholders. Over the last year, our Japanese stocks have also fared better than the TOPIX 500.3 Still Room for Improvement Japanese companies, however, still have to work to improve corporate governance, especially compared with much of the rest of the developed world. While 90% of listed companies now have one independent director, some may not actually be independent, either because they come from parent companies or other parties that could be aligned with the interests of company management. Also, as mentioned, the rest of the developed world has a far greater number of independent board members. Japan’s TOPIX 500 companies’ boards consist, on average, of 25% outside members. Compare that to Germany’s DAX 30, at 76%; France’s CAC 40, at 90%; and the U.S’s Dow Jones Industrial Average, at 84%.4 Significant intercorporate investment and a focus on low returnon-equity businesses owned by large Japanese conglomerates still exists, and that is where active management is important to specifically select the companies undertaking shareholder-friendly reform. A Meaningful Start We are certainly seeing positive developments at the company level as a result of Abe’s reform push. We see management and board shake-ups and increasing shareholder-friendly activity. It’s a meaningful start to long-term reform. While these changes take time, we believe they are real. From an investment standpoint, we at Thornburg Investment Management benefit from a broad mandate with a focus on bottom-up fundamental analysis. We have flexibility to look for good relative values between many different types of companies in an effort to identify those that we judge to be making progress toward improved corporate governance and thus raising return prospects for our clients and shareholders. We have been finding interesting investment opportunities where management has acted in shareholders’ best interests and divested less profitable business lines to focus on higher-return activities. This is an exciting time to seek good companies trading at a discount to our assessments of their longterm intrinsic value. n 1. J PX-Nikkei Index 400–Japan Exchange Group, http:// www.jpx.co.jp/english/markets/indices/jpx-nikkei400/ 2. Z uhair Khan, Head of Research, Japan, “Japanese Corporate Governance: Boiling the Frog,” Jefferies, Japan Equity Research, July 2016. 3. T hornburg Investment Management. 4. K han, “Japanese Corporate Governance.” Unless otherwise noted, the source of all data is Thornburg Investment Management, Inc., as of September 2016. The views expressed by Mr. Wax reflect his professional opinions and are subject to change. Under no circumstances does the information contained within represent a recommendation to buy or sell any security. International investing involves special risks including currency fluctuations, illiquidity, volatility, and political and economic risks. These risks may be heightened in emerging markets. CAC 40 Index – The benchmark index for the French stock markets composed of 40 of the largest and most liquid stocks trading on the Paris Bourse exchange. DAX Index – Represents 30 of the largest and most liquid German companies that trade on the Frankfurt Exchange. 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