MINISTRY FOR FOREIGN
AFFAIRS OF FINLAND
Finland's position, security and welfare
in an increasingly complex world
Futures Outlook of the Ministry for Foreign Affairs
Publications of the Ministry for Foreign Affairs 10/2014
Ministry for Foreign Affairs
PO Box 176
00023 Government
Finland
Publications of the Ministry for Foreign Affairs 10/2014
September 2014
ISSN 0358-1489 (print)
ISSN 2341-8230 (PDF)
ISBN 978-952-281-270-4
PDF ISBN 978-952-281-271-1
EPUB ISBN 978-952-281-272-8
Print: Grano Oy, Jyväskylä
Layout: Grano Oy, Joensuu
Contents
Abstract............................................................................................................................... 5
1. A changing operating environment and Finland’s foreign policy ............................. 6
2. Futures Outlook themes................................................................................................ 8
2.1. Finland’s strong international position................................................................. 8
2.2. Networked national security................................................................................ 10
2.3. Open cooperation as a foundation of welfare and sustainability..................... 12
The preparation process of the Futures Outlook.......................................................... 15
4
Abstract
The Futures Outlook of the Ministry for Foreign Affairs presents the ministry’s vision of continuity
and change for the coming years, and outlines a foreign policy that Finland might pursue in order to
succeed in a changing operating environment. The principal purpose of the review is to inform discussions for the formation of the next government, but the timeframe also extends beyond its term.
Finland must pursue a strong foreign policy in order to succeed internationally. Having an active
foreign policy is how Finland can drive change in the direction it desires, in the face of ongoing
upheavals in the European and global operating environments. Foreign policy objectives must shape
the structure and resources of the Foreign Service, not vice versa.
The deepening interplay between security policy, external economic relations and development policy
calls for a foreign policy that is comprehensive in scope. The Outlook draws together three overlapping
themes for the near future: 1) Finland’s strong international position, 2) networked national security,
and 3) open cooperation as the foundation for welfare and sustainability – all of which are vital to
Finland as it steers its foreign policy through the next decade.
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1. A changing operating environment and
Finland’s foreign policy
Finland must pursue a strong and effective foreign policy to succeed internationally. Foreign policy is
never conducted in a vacuum: Finland’s foreign policy priorities and capabilities are essentially
influenced by shifts in the European and global operating environments. The most important
international developments affecting us are presented in an outline describing the future of Finland
(tulevaisuudensuomi.fi) prepared jointly by all the ministries of the Finnish Government, which was
released in the summer of 2014. Factors such as the expanding global interdependence of the networked world, the intensifying influence of geopolitics, and values being ever more contested are
constantly modifying Finland’s foreign policy playing field. Finland needs to adjust to a host of factors
that are beyond its power or influence. By means of pursuing an active foreign policy, Finland can,
however, drive change in the direction that is in its interest.
The Foreign Ministry’s Futures Outlook presents the Foreign Service’s vision of continuity and
change for the coming years and outlines a foreign policy that Finland might pursue in order
to succeed in a changing operating environment. The Outlook has been prepared by ministry
officials and its principal purpose is to inform discussions related to the formation of the next government in the spring of 2015. Although the timeframe of the Outlook, spanning 5 to 10 years, extends
beyond the prospective term of the next government, all the themes that are discussed here should
be attended to in the next government’s programme and work. In the Outlook, foreign policy is used
as an umbrella concept, which covers security policy, external economic relations, development policy
and other areas of foreign policy.
An overarching aspect of the themes of the Outlook is the link between Finland’s national interest
and international cooperation. Finland must protect its own interests, but in an interdependent world
it is difficult to imagine conditions where it would be advisable to pursue these interests alone. Common interests with others should be sought; divergent interests should be brought closer together. A
successful foreign policy must always be based on a clear view of the actor’s own needs. Only when
we know what we need and want are we able to decide how and with whom it is wise to cooperate
in order to reach the objectives.
We must also be brave enough to make clear choices when our foreign policy goals are specified.
Even larger and better resourced international actors cannot allocate their resources equally to all
policy areas and all geographical regions. Since we cannot do everything, it is worthwhile to concentrate on key objectives and pursue them in the best possible way. A strategy that is based on a limited
number of priorities directs the work of the Foreign Service and strengthens Finland’s influence and
identity in the world. The selected priorities must translate into practical ways of action in the Foreign
Service both at home and abroad. Foreign policy objectives must shape the structure and resources of the Foreign Service, not vice versa. The Foreign Service must be capable of stepping
up efforts to pursue Finland’s interest as a proactive international player. As global change intensifies,
the importance of timely and analytical information for foreign-policy decision-making is highlighted.
The changing operating environment accentuates the need for an influential foreign policy and sets
new demands for diplomacy. The realm of traditional foreign policy has not disappeared but an
upheaval of the international system persists alongside it. Governments, companies and citizens
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are increasingly interdependent in issues related to the economy, security and our common living
environment. Globalisation and intensifying competition for markets and investments strengthen the
role of external economic relations in international interaction where technology and innovations are
gaining more ground. The pursuit of global sustainable development will become a more manifest
part of foreign policy. Finland ranks very high in international assessments measuring education
and welfare, which is why we have every opportunity to influence issues relating to our own
future. In an increasingly complex world, succeeding in this advocacy work requires the expertise of
Foreign Service professionals.
In the midst of change, the importance of the diplomatic mission network abroad is emphasised. Despite the growing global operations of the business and communications sectors, it is the
public sector that is explicitly pursuing Finnish interests. There is a growing demand for a presence
abroad that produces analytical information from the Finnish perspective. Simultaneously, the priorities and structure of the current network of diplomatic missions should be reviewed. In the future,
resources will still be needed both near and far away, but they must be scaled to better respond to
Finland’s current objectives and global political and economic centres of gravity. In addition, new
forms of presence and influence must be explored with an open mind, for example in cooperation
with the EU, other Nordic countries and individual partner countries. Even though new technologies
and international cooperation will not replace the network of missions, they might open up new opportunities applicable in such areas as consular services and general interaction with the business
sector and civil society.
Consular services and communications will play a greater role as part of foreign policy when citizens
need more and more diverse assistance and information. An open democracy also involves discussion
with citizens on foreign policy matters on a growing number of forums, and a modern Foreign Service
has to be active on them. In a digitalised world, information management and communications will
be a more integral part of foreign policy both in the context of deepening international cooperation
and in conflict and crisis situations.
Barriers between foreign and domestic policy will be further lowered. Foreign policy starts at home:
for example, attracting international companies and foreign investment to Finland require genuine
effort and expertise on our part. Making a clear distinction between traditional foreign policy sectors
also becomes unnecessary. The interplay between security policy, external economic relations
and development policy will deepen – the trend is towards growing interconnectedness. Understanding the complex world and exercising influence on it sets new demands for the Foreign
Service. The expanding remit of foreign policy requires more and more capacity for holistic thinking
throughout the organisation.
This Futures Outlook outlines Finland’s foreign policy agenda in the near future along three
closely related themes. The themes chosen here are 1) Finland’s strong international position, 2)
networked national security, and 3) open cooperation as the foundation for welfare and sustainability.
Securing these objectives needs to be the guiding principle of Finnish foreign policy in all circumstances during the decade ahead.
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2. Futures Outlook themes
2.1. FINLAND’S STRONG INTERNATIONAL POSITION
As the world order is seeking a new balance, Finland’s position is not set in stone but requires active
attendance. The beacons defining Finland’s position in the world are, above all, our European and
Nordic identities: we must take advantage of these keystones more firmly in the future. In Finland’s
third decade as an EU member state European integration spans all areas of the Finnish society and
has a profound influence on the everyday life of Finns. EU membership has fundamental foreign policy
significance because for Finland the European Union is the most important framework defining
our international position. From the point of view of our national identity, EU membership is an
indisputable absolute value for Finland. As a major global player with established institutions, the EU
also offers its member states instrumental value. Throughout its membership, Finland has consistently supported a unified EU, speaking through which our own voice is also amplified. Strengthening
the traditional EU institutions and the European External Action Service serves Finland’s interests.
At the same time, Finland must be attentive in its EU policy and follow the diverging trends of European integration. Within the next few years, both incentives arising outside the EU and the union’s
internal dynamics might lead to further multi-layered integration, in economic and security issues
alike. All EU member states are not capable or willing to respond to the challenges that lie ahead in
the same way. Participation in a two-tier integration does not mean the pursuit of selfish, short-term
instant gains, quite the opposite: in cooperation with other capable and willing members, deeper
integration in specific fields can be conducive to the exercise of a more dynamic influence in
the EU and to the resolution of critical problems. Finland can increase its influence within the EU
both in the union’s external relations and in the Common Security and Defence Policy (CSDP). The
changing security situation in Europe and the institutional openings that give the Commission a more
prominent role in the development of the CSDP may call further attention to the European defence
policy – Finland should remain closely involved in the strengthening of the CSDP.
In addition to its EU membership, Finland’s international role is to a significant degree determined
by its position as one of the Nordic countries. Finland has close ties with the other Nordic countries
at the government, business and civil society levels: our Nordic identity builds on everyday interaction. However, Finland must take care that the gap between its social, economic and foreign policy
resources and those of its most important counterparts will not grow. Close contacts with the other
Nordic countries is of primary importance for Finland’s international position. Being one of
the Nordic countries is a key source of Finland’s soft power, from which even more could be drawn
to build our international profile. Strengthening the Nordic connection is not only a means to uphold
the brand and image of Finland: the Nordic countries are a very important economic market for Finland and we can find the most suitable models for structural changes in society from them. Effective
Nordic cooperation is also a precondition for another Finnish priority: the development of our Arctic
policy. The potential for cooperation is not limited to the issues on the agenda of the Nordic Council of
Ministers. There is room for a substantial diversification of concrete Nordic cooperation on all sectors
of foreign policy, too.
Finland’s international position is highly dependent on the smooth operation of the multilateral system.
Despite their deficiencies, both the UN and the OSCE are important channels of influence for Finland. Faced with multiple problems associated with the instruments of global governance, however,
multilateralism is being constrained – this shows in both the traditional bilateral great power politics
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and the new multipolar system with groupings such as G20 and BRICS. In this environment Finland
must foster direct bilateral relations with the major players – the United States, Russia and China, in particular ̶ but also with other emerging economies firmly engaged in globalisation. Russia’s
rapprochement with Europe has been the objective for twenty years, but this development has now
come to a serious turning point, with important ramifications for Finland as well. Russia is creating
increasing instability in its own neighbourhood and has not only seriously violated international law
but is also about to break away from the European value base. Despite the disconcerting direction
that Russian policy has taken, it is politically and economically essential for Finland to maintain as
functioning as possible relations with Russia – as a part of the EU and the international community
as well as bilaterally. Succeeding in this without compromising Finland’s international position is one
of the most important tasks on our foreign policy agenda.
International politics has long ago ceased to be interaction between states only. In an interdependent world, international companies and global civil society activities have emerged alongside states
and governments. Today’s fast-moving technology facilitates the empowerment of individuals. In the
middle of this change, Finland’s international position is also being shaped from outside the traditional government-centred diplomacy. Finland’s foreign policy must support the capacity of Finnish
companies and private citizens to navigate in the network of a growing number of non-state
international relations. One opportunity for more influence can be found in the field of international
law. There is growing pressure to open the international treaty system and global governance to
non-state actors, which are at present not recognised as parties to treaties. In today’s world, there
are only few contexts in which states act fully independently. Pursuing its own policy, Finland could
assume a profile as a bridge-builder, reducing the gap between the public and private aspects of
international law.
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2.2. NETWORKED NATIONAL SECURITY
The European security environment is in a state of flux. In the East, the number of frozen or even
open conflicts is on the increase as a result of Russia’s interventions, on different levels, against its
militarily non-aligned neighbours. The repercussions are unpredictable and even in the most optimistic
scenario it will take a long time to fix the tense relations between Russia and the West. In the South,
the aspirations associated with the Arab Spring have had to give way to the turmoil in North Africa
and the Middle East – over time the consequences may be more dramatic than those in the East.
The road to regional stability is very long. One example of the repercussions that extend to Europe
is that the influx of refugees across the Mediterranean does not seem to be subsiding. Changes in
the neighbourhood of Europe inevitably reflect on Finland’s security, too. Anchored to Europe
and the Nordic countries both politically and in terms of values, Finland is undeniably a part of the
West. However, Finland does not participate in all forms of cooperation where the West is defined
and defended. For those EU member states that are also members of NATO, the latter is the principal
security policy instrument.
International security cooperation is indispensable for Finland because of economic and technological changes and dependencies. Integration in Europe continues to take various forms, also in
matters relating to defence. An important part of this integration is Finland’s partnership with NATO,
which is further strengthened by the common standards required by crisis management cooperation.
Deepening our cooperation with the other Nordic countries and in the European Union are security
policy developments that come naturally to Finland, as they also enjoy broad support in society. A
key challenge for Finland is to maintain a sufficiently credible threshold to ensure its own security.
Finland must in any case take care of its own defence capability, a fundamental precondition
of which is participation in international cooperation. NATO membership would clarify Finland’s
position in many ways. Continued non-alignment would also demand close cooperation with NATO.
It is important to notice that changes in the security environment mean that Finland’s position is also
constantly changing – independent of whether we make any formal decisions concerning our position or not. The shaping of our own security and defence policy is a continuing process which calls
for persistent and growing attention in the swiftly changing situation in Europe. Finland cannot base
its security on one solution only, be it NATO membership, military non-alignment or something else;
instead, the security of Finland will also in the future consist of its own defence capability, international
cooperation and many non-military factors. It is essential that all decisions that are taken maintain
Finland as a stable and reliable actor in its immediate neighbourhood, in Europe and in international
crisis management.
Finland’s concept of comprehensive security continues to be a useful response to both old and new
threats and it must be developed further. With the help of new technology, individual citizens, companies and other non-state actors are actively present in global networks. At the same time, information
warfare and threats such as security breaches leading to information leaks bring cyber security and
also security policy more generally to the level of individual citizens. This increases the need for a
broad understanding of security and sustainability in society. A successful foreign policy requires
not only wide democratic support but also new kinds of skills and knowledge from all members
of society. Where a society’s overall resilience is concerned, the choice between military alignment
and non-alignment is not the decisive factor. Instead, freedom of the Internet and data protection can
be critical – these matters require close international cooperation and will be at the heart of foreign
policy in the future.
The technology-enabled empowerment of individuals is, first and foremost, a positive force, which
at the same time builds up confidence and, therefore, strengthens security in society. Finland, the
least fragile country in the world according to a UN assessment, has succeeded exceptionally well in
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the accumulation of trust. A high level of education, equality, open discussion in society and citizens’
opportunities to influence are all attributes that strengthen Finland’s own security, but they also serve
as examples to other countries in search of a more democratic and secure society for themselves.
Trust-based security in society might become an export article for Finland. With the empowerment
of individuals, more attention must be paid to the limitations of a state-centred world view in
the conduct of foreign policy. A foreign policy that acknowledges individuals is also better prepared
to respond to the negative cross-border side-effects of individualism, such as terrorism, extremist
movements and organised crime. It is increasingly common that state fragility and international and
regional conflicts reverberate via individuals beyond the actual crisis area – fighting the impacts of
international crises therefore requires action before our internal security is affected.
Many of the security threats of the 21st century do not respect national borders. Even though the national responsibility for health, environment and energy policies rightly lies with the respective sector
ministries, challenges such as global pandemic risks, environmental disasters, climate change as
well as energy and raw material issues – with all their repercussions – will increasingly also be a part
of foreign policy in the future. Climate and energy issues, in particular, will have an ever greater
significance in foreign policy. The US shale gas revolution has already transformed the global energy markets and consequently also had significant geopolitical impacts. Technological breakthroughs
in the use of renewable energy sources, for example, may lead to equally swift repercussions of a
similar scale. The political importance of traditional fossil fuels – oil, coal and gas – and their transportation routes and availability has been evident for a long time. The same applies to climate change.
Mitigation of climate change and adaptation to it can, if successful, not only transform the entire global
energy policy equation but also prevent conflicts and uncontrolled migration. Even though many of
the industrialised countries in the West are among the last ones to be affected by climate change, its
impacts are already becoming manifest in many emerging economies and developing countries. Linking the dynamics of energy and climate more closely to the core of our foreign policy would thereby
bolster Finland’s overall credibility as a partner in Africa, Asia and Latin America.
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2.3. OPEN COOPERATION AS A FOUNDATION OF WELFARE AND SUSTAINABILITY
Open international cooperation is vital for a country like Finland. Just as Europe as a whole, Finland
too is deeply dependent on an open exchange economy – export accounts for over 40 per cent of
Finland’s gross domestic product. The importance of open international cooperation is not limited to
trade. Maximising global openness and making full use of the potential in international cooperation
are important principles for Finland, not only in external economic relations but also in development
policy. Modern foreign policy cannot view trade and development as separate entities and even less
so as fields that would have mutually adverse effects on each other. The opening of markets and
global development are closely intertwined objectives. Success in the pursuit of these goals
increases security, welfare, justice and sustainability both in Finland and across the world.
The European Union is indispensable for Finland’s foreign trade. More than a half of Finland’s
foreign trade is conducted with other EU member states in the internal market. However, the future
growth potential lies in non-European markets and Finland’s foreign trade there relies strongly on the
union’s common trade policy. The removal of trade barriers and the creation of common standards
are extremely important for Finland’s export, which is the keystone of Finnish welfare. EU trade policy
pursues these objectives on all tracks: multilaterally through the World Trade Organisation (WTO),
plurilaterally through agreements in specific fields with a more limited group of participants and
bilaterally through free trade agreements. Multilateral progress has stagnated in all areas of global
governance and trade policy is no exception. Advances in regional and bilateral trade arrangements
can, if successful, also help in breaking the impasse in WTO negotiations. Although a universal WTObased agreement would serve the interests of Finland and Europe best, a tapestry of bilateral trade
agreements negotiated with the United States, Japan, India and other partners significantly contributes
to the operating conditions of Finland’s foreign trade, even without any multilateral breakthroughs.
The Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership (TTIP) negotiated with the United States has not
only significant economic impacts but also additional weight due to its geopolitical value in cementing
the West closer together.
Europe is only just recovering from the economic and financial crisis, and Finland is struggling to
cope with its own economic situation and serious structural problems. Alongside the reforms required
at home, support for an economic recovery must also be sought from international interaction. In an
intensely competitive international situation more input on two-way traffic is essential: active promotion
of Finland abroad and migration of financial and knowledge capital to Finland. Supporting the internationalisation of Finnish companies and attracting investments to Finland will feature much
more prominently in Finland’s foreign policy in the future. From the viewpoint of the Foreign Service it is important to continue to develop and strengthen the Team Finland cooperation. Cooperation
between government and non-state actors must be increased, in particular with companies seeking
access to international markets. Determined country branding is an important tool in the conduct of
external economic relations. The Foreign Service and other public sector representatives operating
abroad create and maintain Finland’s profile through long-term advocacy, up-to-date and coordinated
information, and cultural and science networks. Both country branding and the internationalisation of
companies must be based on a firm foundation at home: in the end a credible picture given abroad
cannot differ from what Finland and the Finns truly are. Tourist flows regulated by visa policy also
play a part in this internationalisation.
A long-term challenge for Finland’s export economy is the vast ongoing technological transformation.
We have already seen the first effects of digitalisation, but the change has only just started and the
process is accelerating all the time. It is very likely that breakthroughs in areas such as automation,
robotics, 3D printing, biotechnology and artificial intelligence will transform the structure and dynamics
of the global economy more profoundly than we can anticipate. Rather than an economy based on
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processing industries and the export of investment products, future success stories will more probably
be based on innovations that can be multiplied and distributed irrespective of geographical location.
In this scenario Finnish companies, too, become subject to genuinely global competition. Finland is
well positioned to fare successfully in this competition. Its main assets are a high level of education,
technological know-how, a secure society and a functioning infrastructure. Past success does not,
however, guarantee success in the future. In order to keep up with development, Finland needs to
attract the best talent to the country and to be open-minded and willing to adopt changes. Companies
and individuals bear the main responsibility for innovations, but through external economic relations
the central government can foster positive developments. Detecting signals of the future direction
of technological change and identifying new markets must play a more active role in the work of
Finland’s diplomatic missions in the future. With their own activities and the information they convey,
Finnish diplomats will also serve as global salesmen who pave the way for export, innovation and
investment.
As problems related to issues such as climate change, population growth, water issues and financial
crises grow, the need for international cooperation is drastic. Yet many of the multilateral forums are
increasingly paralysed. Global conferences are rarely able to produce final documents or explicit
outcomes anymore, and only a few new global contractual negotiations have been initiated in recent
years. The emerging powers and developing countries have questioned the representativeness of
the UN Security Council, the Bretton Woods institutions and other old structures. The inflexibility of
these structures has, for its part, led to the creation of different G-groups, regional solutions and new
coalitions of the emerging powers. Finland must be able to act in this new reality, even though in many
of the new groups we are represented only through our EU membership, if at all. Although Finland’s
small size is essentially a challenge which limits our global influence in the development of multilateral systems, it can also be turned into an asset. Innovative and agile actors will continue to find
room to manoeuvre in resolving global problems, be the issue a reform of traditional institutions
or one’s own mediation activities.
In addition to altering the balance of global governance, the economic and social change in the
emerging powers also has an impact on the nature of development policy as a whole. Sustainable development is becoming a shared global objective in which the industrialised countries will
have goals of their own. Rapid economic growth has lifted a number of developing countries from
extreme poverty, although internal income disparities still cause substantial problems within those
countries. Escaping poverty is still a huge global challenge, but many former and current recipients
of development assistance have become donors. In the future, traditional direct aid will be primarily
addressed to the poorest and most fragile states. In fragile states and in crisis situations the role of
humanitarian assistance becomes more pronounced, thus bringing development policy closer to crisis
management and mediation. Multilateral assistance is gaining ground from bilateral assistance, but
the position of regional development banks will become difficult as new kinds of funders seek direct
benefits for themselves. In Finland’s development policy, more attention will be directed to influencing the activities of multilateral organisations. For example, steering the World Bank’s instruments
towards the prevention of natural disasters can produce far better impacts than what can be achieved
by means of bilateral projects.
In its bilateral development policy, Finland must consider the strategically most effective way to organise its own assistance. This applies to the national and international division of labour as much as
to the needs and capacities to receive assistance in the partner countries. Cooperation with African,
Asian and Latin American countries will be more diverse in the future, when investments and the
liberalisation of markets are a more integral part of development. Export in the fields of education,
health or cleantech can simultaneously also be human rights based development policy. The
financial sources of export support must be assessed carefully because development cooperation
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appropriations will be increasingly directed to the poorest countries. A developing country is more and
more often also an emerging power, an economic partner and co-actor in fields of security policy and
crisis management. Dismantling barriers between state, business and civil society organisations in
Finland and in partner countries can lead to the development of joint, innovative projects that help the
developing countries manage their change in a positive manner and benefit their societies as widely
as possible. An efficient and effective development policy also guarantees citizens’ positive attitude
towards development cooperation. Finland’s reputation as a responsible and committed actor in development cooperation is a good starting point for a multifaceted development policy, where trade,
human rights and corporate responsibility go hand in hand.
Reaching a consensus on the most important cornerstones of sustainable development and global
welfare – an international climate treaty and the post-2015 sustainable development goals – still
requires the completion of difficult negotiations. These and many other negotiations are further complicated by the contest of values and world views between the western industrialised countries and
the emerging powers. Finland has firmly decided that human rights, equality and the rule of law are
a part of its foreign policy. The consolidation of the international value and norm base should be persistently continued. However, the resumption of difficult negotiations calls for more diplomacy, not
less. Finland must direct its foreign policy resources to the resolution of questions dealing
with the common destiny of mankind, for both altruistic and selfish reasons. A more equitable and
more sustainable world is also in line with our own interest.
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THE PREPARATION PROCESS OF THE FUTURES OUTLOOK
The Unit for Policy Planning and Research of the Ministry for Foreign Affairs was responsible for the preparation of the Outlook. The work was supervised by the board of
senior officials at the ministry and all departments contributed to the work through discussions at the directors-general level and in thematic working groups. An online survey
was conducted to find out the Foreign Service staff’s views about future foreign policy.
Opinion polls examining the public opinion of foreign policy were also used and ideas
for the Outlook were tested with a panel consisting of university students.
In the review process the Unit for Policy Planning and Research observed the methodological principles of strategic foresight and took advantage of its wide network of
international contacts with governments and research institutes across the world. Finnish and international official reports made by public authorities and research institutes
were consulted extensively. As a part of the process, the Unit created its own scenarios
which did not aim at an accurate forecast of a particular future, but rather at outlining a
range of possible futures. The most important megatrends identified in the scenario work
were the concentration and fragmentation of power, the dynamics of cooperation and
confrontation, the balance between scarcity and abundance of resources, the empowerment of individuals, technological development and changing values. In addition, the
possibility of various “black swans” – unexpected variables with potentially far-reaching
effects – was consciously kept in mind throughout the process.
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