insight2050: Progress
Community Advisory Committee
September 8, 2014
Presentation Purpose
• Information only
• No action at this time
Many communities in our
region capitalized on growth
opportunities over the last
several decades.
2,340,000
1,823,609
1,149,432
1970
2010
2050
Our region anticipates
continued growth, but with
substantially different
opportunities and
challenges.
2,338,300
1,823,609
1,149,432
1970
2010
2050
A Changing Population
<35
19%
35-64
65+
<65+
(+37%)
56%
78%
3%
1990-2010
Source: Arthur C. Nelson
<35-64
(-56%)
<35
(+19%)
22%
22%
2010-2030
Housing Type Preferences by Age
Attached
55%
50%
Small Lot
Conventional
50%
45%
40%
40%
38%
35%
30%
32%
25%
21%
20%
15%
18%
18-29
30-39
Source: National Association of Realtors
(2011)
40-49
50-59
60+
Housing Supply & Demand
2010 Housing Supply
450,000
Total Growth:
2010-2050: ~304,000 Units
400,000
350,000
2010-2050 Change
165,900
300,000
250,000
137,800
200,000
150,000
333,000
257,000
100,000
188,000
50,000
0
Attached
Source: Arthur C. Nelson
Small Lot
Larger Lot
Anticipated Growth Opportunities
Over 300
million
square feet
new
NonResidential
Growth
Over 700 million
square feet
redevelopment
possible
Source: Arthur C. Nelson
We’re investing in tools to
help communities:
• Consider the impacts of
future growth
• Continue growth and
economic opportunity
• Fortify fiscal stability and
sustainability
Phase 1 Partners
Scenario Tools
“
You know where you are.
The question now is:
Where are you going? And
that’s what insight2050 is
all about – pick your
future. What is the most
efficient investment?
People don’t get to see
that until they do these
scenario studies.”
~Peter Calthorpe
State of the Region 2014
Scenario Concepts
A
Past Trends
Extends past development trends (from
1990) forward to 2050
B
Planned Future
Reflects and extends the direction of
local plans with moderate infill/
redevelopment
C
Focused Growth
Informed by housing demand forecasts,
with significant infill/redevelopment
Maximum Infill
Informed by housing demand forecasts,
with maximum infill/redevelopment in
existing corridors and city centers
D
Development Proportions
End State, 2050
STANDARD
Lower density
auto-oriented
suburban
59%
COMPACT
Mid-density,
walkable, and/or
transit-oriented
85%
83%
78%
URBAN
Higher-density,
downtown and
infill
59%
33%
29%
11%
12%
16%
4%
5%
6%
8%
13%
Existing
A
B
C
D
Plans
Focus
Max Infill
Trends
14
Land Consumed
Square Miles of Greenfield Land Developed: 2010-2050
500
Cumulative Reduction from Scenario A by 2050
2010: 1,000 sq. miles
225 sq. miles
450 sq. miles
480 sq. miles
400
300
495
200
225
270
100
0
A
A
Trends
B
B
Plans
sq. miles
45
15
C
C
D
D
Focus
Max Infill
Household Driving
VMT/capita
New growth average per capita, Annual (2050)
10,000
9,000
8,000
7,000
-3,000
6,000
miles
5,000
4,000
8,450
2010: ~6,600
7,450
3,000
4,450
2,000
3,850
1,000
Flickr Kyle Beecher
0
AA
Trends
B
B
Plans
C
C
Focus
D
D
Max Infill
Vehicle Miles Traveled
Regional passenger miles, Annual (2050)
VMT (Billions)
Annual Reduction from Scenario A in 2050
18.0
2010: -12 Billion
0.5 billion
3.9 billion
4.9 billion
16.0
-3.4 bill
14.0
miles
12.0
2010: 12 Billion
10.0
8.0
15.9
15.4
6.0
12.0
11.1
C
C
D
D
4.0
2.0
0.0
AA
Trends
B
B
Plans
Focus
Max Infill
Fuel Cost
$ Billions
$120
Passenger Vehicle Fuel, 2010-2050 (@ $5/Gallon)
Cumulative Reduction from Scenario A by 2050
$2.7 billion
-
$18.5 billion
$22.7 billion
$115
$110
-$15.8
billion
$105
$100
$95
$90
$116.0
$113.3
$85
$97.5
$80
$93.3
$75
$70
2014 Dollars
AA
Trends
BB
Plans
C
C
Focus
D
D
Max Infill
Respiratory Health Impacts
Cost Reduction from ‘Trend’ Due to Health Incidences, Annual in 2035
Basis for
Comparison
-$41 mil
$205
million/year
2014 Dollars
A
Trends
-$246 mil
-$315 mil
B
C
D
Plans
Focus
Max Infill
Household Costs
Transportation and Home Energy/Water Use, New Households, Annual (2050)
Reduction from Scenario A in 2050
$15,000
-
$1450
$5,350
$6,250
$13,000
$11,000
$3,900
$9,000
per year
$13,050
$11,600
$7,000
$7,700
$5,000
2014 Dollars
AA
Trends
B
B
Plans
C
C
Focus
$6,800
D
D
Max Infill
Household Costs
Transportation and Home Energy/Water Use, All Households, Annual (2050)
Reduction from Scenario A in 2050
-
$550
$3,300
$4,050
$15,000
$2,750
per year
$13,000
$11,000
$15,500
$14,950
$9,000
$12,200
$11,450
$7,000
$5,000
2014 Dollars
AA
Trends
B
B
Plans
C
C
Focus
D
D
Max Infill
Phase 1 Tool: Region-Level Comparison Chart
Environmental
• Greenhouse Gas Emissions
• Air Pollution & Health Impacts
• Water and Energy Consumption
Transportation
• Vehicle Miles Traveled
• Vehicle Emissions
• Transportation Costs
Fiscal
• Capital Infrastructure Costs
• O&M/Public Works Costs
• Household/Business Costs
Social
• Housing Diversity & Affordability
• Household Costs
What Can I Do?
• Visit our website
www.morpc.org/insight2050
• Sign up for our e-newsletter
• Talk about the info with neighbors,
friends, and colleagues
• Contact MORPC to get a speaker for
another audience
• Think about the future
ANDY TAYLOR, AICP
[email protected]
111 Liberty Street, Suite 100
Columbus, Ohio 43215
614.233.4166
www.morpc.org