SUSTAINABLE TRANSFORMATION OF THE
APPALACHIAN REGION DATA BRIEF
Population and Demographics
NATIONAL CENTER FOR SMART GROWTH
RESEARCH AND EDUCATION
UNIVERSITY OF MARYLAND
AUGUST 9, 2012
www.smartgrowth.umd.edu
STAR Data Brief: Population and Demographics
Contents
Introduction ........................................................................................................... 1
Population Size ...................................................................................................... 3
Population Growth .................................................................................................5
Population Density ................................................................................................. 7
Minority Population .............................................................................................. 8
Household Size ...................................................................................................... 9
Educational Attainment ........................................................................................ 10
Age Structure ........................................................................................................ 12
Labor Force Participation ..................................................................................... 14
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STAR Data Brief: Population and Demographics
Introduction
In September 2011, the National Center for Smart Growth partnered with University of
Maryland Extension and The Greater Cumberland Committee to coordinate a region-wide effort
in Western Maryland called the Sustainable Transformation of the Appalachian Region (STAR).
Funded by a grant from the Appalachian Regional Commission, the purpose of STAR is to
identify the economic goals and aspirations of Western Maryland residents and to ensure that
these goals and aspirations are specifically incorporated in the economic development element
of PlanMaryland, Maryland’s statewide development plan. The effort emphasizes that a state
economic development plan cannot assume that “one size fits all.” Whereas state planning
efforts often focus on issues important to Baltimore and the Washington suburbs, the STAR
project recognizes that growing jobs in a sustainable way in Western Maryland is different than
in other parts of the State.
To that end, the STAR project involves four primary tasks:
1. Identifying Western Maryland’s existing economic development plans and strategies and
taking an inventory of the goals contained therein; 1
2. Documenting the region’s population, demographic, housing, transportation,
infrastructure and economic trends;
3. Meeting with Western Maryland residents to ascertain the region’s current economic
development priorities; and,
4. Reporting the project’s findings to the Maryland Sustainable Growth Commission.
Job Density
Population Density
County
Median Incomea
Employmentb
Populationc
(per sq. mile)d
(per sq. mile)d
Frederick, MD
$81,686
129,184
233,385
195.7
353.6
Bedford, PA
$40,249
23,663
49,762
23.4
49.2
Franklin, PA
$51,035
73,511
149,618
95.2
193.8
Fulton, PA
$45,240
6,904
14,845
15.8
33.9
Somerset, PA
$39,194
34,851
77,742
32.4
72.4
Berkeley, WV
$52,857
40,436
104,169
126.0
324.5
Grant, WV
$35,593
5,739
11,937
12.0
25.0
Hampshire, WV
$31,792
7,598
23,964
11.9
37.4
Jefferson, WV
$65,603
20,969
53,498
99.9
254.8
Mineral, WV
$36,571
10,562
28,212
32.2
86.0
Morgan, WV
$37,281
4,856
17,541
21.2
76.6
Preston, WV
$40,753
11,217
33,520
17.3
51.6
Table 1. The Tri-State Mountain Region. Sources: a2010 American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates, U.S. Census
Bureau; bTotal full-time and part-time employment, U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, 2010; c2010 Census, U.S. Census
Bureau; dLand area from the National Association of Counties.
As part of task 2 above, this brief report focuses on identifying Western Maryland’s population
and demographic trends during the past several decades in comparison to the rest of the state
For the first of these tasks, the NCSG has created a working document that summarizes existing local
plans. This inventory report has been posted to the STAR project website, located at
http://smartgrowth.umd.edu/starproject.html.
1
1
STAR Data Brief: Population and Demographics
and the surrounding region. The surrounding region in this report is referred to as the Tri-State
Mountain Region and was identified as an additional region of comparison that more closely
mirrors the demographic, economic, and environmental characteristics of Western Maryland.
The Tri-State Mountain Region includes 12 counties from Maryland, Pennsylvania and West
Virginia as listed in Table 1 and highlighted in Figure 1. 2
Figure 1. Map of Western Maryland and Tri-State Mountain Region. Source: NCSG.
The Tri-State Mountain Region counties were selected by looking at commuting data from the
2000 Census. To be included in the Tri-State Mountain Region, each county needed to share a
border with Western Maryland and to have a minimum of 0.75 percent of its workers
commuting to and from one of the jurisdictions in Western Maryland. For the purposes of this
Frederick County’s income, employment and population levels distinguish it from the rest of the TriState Mountain Region, such that it often skews the regional data. The strong employment and commute
connections between Washington and Frederick County, however, necessitate including Frederick County
in the TSMR. The connections between Frederick and Allegany Counties, and between Frederick and
Garrett Counties are much weaker. Likewise, the connections between Washington County and the
westernmost counties in the TSMR are relatively weak. As long as Washington County is grouped with
Allegany and Garrett Counties as part of “Western Maryland,” Frederick County must be included in the
TSMR.
2
2
STAR Data Brief: Population and Demographics
3
report, unless otherwise noted, the Tri-State Mountain Region refers to the 12 counties
surrounding Western Maryland and does not include Allegany, Garrett, or Washington
Counties.
This brief report focuses on the current conditions and trends in population and demographics
in Western Maryland in comparison to the rest of the state and the surrounding region. This
brief also includes an examination of the Western Maryland labor force.
Population Size
Out of the state’s six major regions, 3 Western Maryland is 4th in terms of total population. Yet
even this ranking may mislead in terms of the scale of difference between Western Maryland
and the State’s more populous areas. A clearer description in differences is the fact that Western
Maryland accounts for only 4 percent of the state’s total population, compared to 82 percent for
the Baltimore Region and Washington Suburbs combined.
252,614
239,951 209,275
340,439
Baltimore Region
DC Suburbs
2,662,691
2,068,582
Southern MD
Western MD
Upper Eastern Shore
Lower Eastern Shore
Figure 2. Maryland Population Totals by Region, 2010. Source: 2010 Census, U.S. Census Bureau.
Western Maryland’s population is unevenly distributed across the three counties in roughly a
3:2:1 relationship. As seen in Figure 3, Washington County (147,430) has 58 percent of Western
Maryland’s population, Allegany County (75,087) has 30 percent, and Garrett County (30,097)
12 percent.
Based on the division used by the Maryland Department of planning, these include: Western Maryland,
the Baltimore Region, the Washington Suburbs, Southern Maryland, the Upper Eastern Shore and the
Lower Eastern Shore.
3
STAR Data Brief: Population and Demographics
4
75,087
Allegany
Garrett
147,430
Washington
30,097
Figure 3. Western Maryland Population Totals by County, 2010. Source: 2010 Census, U.S. Census Bureau.
0
Allegany County
Garrett County
Group Quarters
Washington County
Institutionalized
2.4%
1.2%
2
5.2%
4
5.7%
6
1.5%
8
1.7%
10
7.6%
12
10.6%
Percent of Total Population
Western Maryland has more of its population in group quarters than the rest of the state. For
Allegany and Washington Counties, nearly 10.6 percent and 5.7 percent of their respective total
populations were living in group quarters compared to 2.4 percent for the State of Maryland as a
whole. Similarly, 7.6 percent of Allegany County’s and 5.2 percent of Washington County’s
populations were institutionalized, compared to 1.2 percent across the state. These percentages
reflect the presence of five state prisons in Western Maryland, with three in Washington County
and two in Allegany County. Based on the average daily population totals for all of the Maryland
Division of Correction facilities, the five state prisons in Western Maryland house 45.4 percent
of the state’s inmates. All five state prisons in Western Maryland house only male inmates,
which would impact the population pyramids for Allegany and Washington Counties.
Additionally, more than 32 percent of the state’s male inmates were between the ages of 22 and
30 years old. At the time of this report, the U.S. Census Bureau did not provide the ability to
remove the group quarters population from its 2010 data. Because of the significant
percentages that they make up, the effect that these group quarters populations have on the data
presented in this brief—especially for Allegany and Washington Counties—should be
considered.
Maryland Statewide
Figure 4. Percent of Population in Group Quarters or Institutionalized, Source: 2010 Census, U.S. Census Bureau.
STAR Data Brief: Population and Demographics
5
Population Growth
In terms of population growth, Western Maryland had the lowest rate of increase compared to
the State’s five other regions between 2000 and 2010. Western Maryland’s 0.65 percent
annualized growth rate was less than the state’s rate of 0.87 percent, and a stark contrast to
Southern Maryland’s 1.93 percent. Within a more local context, Western Maryland’s annualized
growth rate was less than half the surrounding Tri-State Mountain Region’s rate of 1.47 percent
growth.
1.93%
Southern Maryland Region
1.38%
Upper Eastern Shore Region
1.15%
Lower Eastern Shore Region
Washington Suburban Region
Baltimore City
1.01%
-0.47%
0.94%
Baltimore Suburbs
0.65%
Western Maryland Region
0.87%
Maryland
Tri-State
-1.0%
1.47%
-0.5%
0.0%
0.5%
1.0%
1.5%
2.0%
2.5%
Figure 5. Regional Annualized Population Growth Rates, 2000-2010. Sources: 2000 and 2010 Censuses, U.S. Census
Bureau.
Looking at the individual population growth rates across counties tells a different story. During
the past decade, the majority of Western Maryland’s population growth occurred in Washington
County. Figure 6 shows that Washington County’s annual population growth of 1.12 percent not
only outstripped neighboring Allegany and Garrett Counties (0.02 percent and 0.08 percent,
respectively), but also exceeded the state average of 0.87 percent, In terms of actual increase,
Washington County grew by 15,507 people whereas Allegany and Garrett only grew by 157 and
251 people, respectively. Washington County’s high growth rate over the past 40 years has given
it a total population that now far exceeds that of Allegany and Garrett counties combined as can
be seen in Figure 7.
STAR Data Brief: Population and Demographics
6
0.04%
Allegany County
0.09%
Garrett County
1.10%
Washington County
0.84%
Maryland
Rest of TSMR
1.47%
0
0.5
1
Percent Annualized Growth
1.5
2
Figure 6: Annualized Population Growth Rates by County, 2000-2010. Sources: 2000 and 2010 Censuses, U.S. Census
Bureau.
160,000
147,430
140,000
Population
120,000
100,000
80,000
103,919
83,983
75,087
60,000
40,000
20,000
30,097
21,607
1970
1980
Allegany
1990
Garrett
Washington
2000
2010
Figure 7: County Populations by Decade, 1970-2010. Sources: 1970, 1980, 1990, 2000 and 2010 Censuses, U.S. Census
Bureau.
A county comparison (see Figure 8) shows that from 1970 to 2010 Washington County’s
population grew at an annualized rate of 0.88% compared to 0.85% and -0.28% for Garrett and
Allegany Counties, respectively.
STAR Data Brief: Population and Demographics
7
-0.28%
0.85%
Annualized Growth Rate
0.88%
-0.6%
0.0%
Allegany County
Garrett County
0.6%
Washington County
1.2%
Figure 8. Annualized Population Growth Rates by County, 1970-2010. Sources: 1970 and 2010 Censuses, U.S. Census
Bureau.
Population Density
As a region, Western Maryland’s population density (people per square mile) is low compared to
the rest of the state. Western Maryland’s average population density of 164.9 persons per
square mile is less than 28 percent of the State’s average density of 590.7 in 2010.
People per Square Mile
1,400
1,200
1,000
800
600
400
200
0
MARYLAND
Baltimore
Region
1970
1980
DC
Suburbs
1990
Southern
Maryland
2000
Western
Maryland
2010
Upper
Eastern
Shore
Lower
Eastern
Shore
Figure 9. Population Density by Decade and Region. Sources: 1970, 1980, 1990, 2000 and 2010 Censuses, U.S. Census
Bureau.
At the county level, Washington (322) outranked both Allegany (177) and Garrett (46) in terms
of people per square mile. These figures from 2010 show Washington and Allegany Counties to
be denser than the surrounding Tri-State Mountain Region (117).
STAR Data Brief: Population and Demographics
8
People/Sq. Mile
700
600
591
500
400
300
322
200
177
100
0
Washington County Allegany County
46
Garrett County
Figure 10. Population Density, 2010. Source: 2010 Census, U.S. Census Bureau.
117
Maryland
Tri-State
Minority Population
Western Maryland has a significantly smaller proportion of residents identifying themselves as
belonging to a minority racial or ethnic category (all groups other than non-Hispanic White)
than the rest of the state. Washington County is most diverse with 17 percent of residents
identifying as a racial or ethnic category other than non-Hispanic White, followed by Allegany
and Garrett Counties with 12 and 3 percent respectively.
Figure 11. Minority Share of Population, 2010. Source: 2010 Census, U.S. Census Bureau.
STAR Data Brief: Population and Demographics
9
Despite having minority populations that are smaller in proportion to the rest of the state, all of
Western Maryland’s jurisdictions are experiencing growth in these populations. In fact, the
minority population growth rate from 2000 to 2010 in Western Maryland exceeds that of
Whites in all counties as seen in Figure 12.
120%
100%
80%
84.5%
60.9%
60%
40%
20%
0%
-4.6%
-20%
Allegany County
-0.4%
Garrett County
73.5%
White
Minority
31.0%
4.3%
Washington County
109.4%
-4.3%
Maryland
8.9%
Rest of TSMR
Figure 12. Demographic Shifts, 2000-2010. Note that minority is defined as all populations other than non-Hispanic
Whites. Sources: 2000 and 2010 Censuses, U.S. Census Bureau.
Household Size
Average household size has declined across Western Maryland like much of the state during the
past 40 years. Smaller families and the increase in the number of people who live alone
contribute to this decrease.
People per Household
3.5
3.0
2.5
2.0
1.5
1.0
0.5
0.0
1970
1980
Maryland
Garrett County
1990
2000
Washington County
Allegany County
2010
Figure 13. Trends in Average Household Size, 1970-2010. Sources: 1970, 1980, 1990, 2000 and 2010 Censuses, U.S.
Census Bureau.
STAR Data Brief: Population and Demographics
10
At a county level, all three Western Maryland jurisdictions have smaller average household sizes
than the state and the Tri-State region.
People/Household
3.0
2.5
2.61
2.54
2.50
2.45
2.30
2.0
1.5
1.0
0.5
0.0
Maryland
Tri-State
Washington County Garrett County
Allegany County
Figure 14. Average Household Size, 2010. Source: 2010 Census, U.S. Census Bureau.
Educational Attainment
The percentage of people without high school diplomas has declined across all of Western
Maryland’s jurisdictions during the past decade as seen in Figure 15.
% of Population 25+
25%
20%
15%
22.2%
20.8%
20.1%
16.6%
14.9%
19.9%
15.7%
14.1%
10%
16.2%
12.2%
5%
0%
Washington
Allegany
Less than H.S. Grad 2000
Garrett
Tri-State
Less than H.S. Grad 2010
Maryland
Figure 15. Change in Educational Attainment (Percent without a High School Diploma), 2000 and 2010. Sources:
2000 and 2010 Censuses, U.S. Census Bureau.
In addition, the percentage of the population 25 or older that holds a bachelor’s degree has
increased across Western Maryland, though all jurisdictions still lag behind the rest of the state
as seen in Figure 16.
STAR Data Brief: Population and Demographics
11
% of Population 25+
40%
35%
35.7%
30%
31.4%
25%
20%
15%
10%
5%
0%
22.0%
18.7%
14.6%
14.1%
Washington
15.9%
17.5%
17.9%
13.8%
Allegany
Bachelor's or Higher 2000
Garrett
Tri-State
Bachelor's or Higher 2010
Maryland
Figure 16. Change in Educational Attainment (Percent with a Bachelor's Degree or Higher), 2000 and 2010.
Sources: 2000 and 2010 Censuses, U.S. Census Bureau.
Educational attainment varies by race although Western Maryland has disparities that are less
severe than either the surrounding region or the state as a whole in terms of high school and
college as seen in Figure 17 and Figure 18.
% of Population 25+
40%
37.8%
35%
30%
25%
20%
15%
10%
5%
0%
23.7%
26.2%
22.8%
28.3%
15.4%
13.8%
14.0%
9.0%
Western Maryland
Black or African American
Tri-State
Hispanic or Latino
Maryland
White (Non-Hispanic)
Figure 17. Educational Attainment (Percent without a High School Diploma) by Race and Hispanic Origin, 2010.
Source: 2010 Census, U.S. Census Bureau.
STAR Data Brief: Population and Demographics
12
% of Population 25+
45%
40%
40.0%
35%
30%
25%
20%
15%
10%
5%
0%
19.3%
17.9%
20.3%
18.9%
21.7%
24.8%
20.0%
10.6%
Western Maryland
Black or African American
Tri County
Hispanic or Latino
Maryland
White (Non-Hispanic)
Figure 18. Educational Attainment (Percent with a Bachelor's Degree or Higher) by Race and Hispanic Origin,
2010. Source: 2010 Census, U.S. Census Bureau.
Age Structure
Population age structures provide a useful snapshot of the current population by age and sex
and can help forecast where a given population may be heading in a few decades. The prevalent
pattern across all of the population pyramids for Western Maryland in Figure 19 is that they are
all constrictive, indicating an aging population. Maryland and the Tri-State Mountain Region
both exhibit this constrictive tendency as well, but in Western Maryland the trend is more
pronounced with the exception of Washington County.
Allegany County has a large youth bulge in the 20 to 24 year old category that rapidly falls off by
the next bracket. This bulge of college-age men and women may be a result of the student
population in Frostburg.
Garrett County’s age structure is characterized by a largely constricted young adult bracket that
is especially pronounced in the 25 to 29 year age group, perhaps a result of the “brain drain” that
has been reported in the County.
Washington County’s age structure more closely resembles the State’s than either Allegany
County’s or Garrett County’s, with a visible bulge in the 45 to 49 year old bracket, but without
the same extremes visible in Western Maryland’s other two counties.
STAR Data Brief: Population and Demographics
Allegany County
5
4
3
2
1
0
1
2
Percent of Population
Male
3
Female
4
5
Washington County
5
4
3
2
1
0
1
2
3
Percent of Population
Male
Tri-State
Female
4
5
Age
85+
80 - 84
75 - 79
70 - 74
65 - 69
60 - 64
55 - 59
50 - 54
45 - 49
40 - 44
35 - 39
30 - 34
25 - 29
20 - 24
15 - 19
10 - 14
5-9
0-4
Age
85+
80 - 84
75 - 79
70 - 74
65 - 69
60 - 64
55 - 59
50 - 54
45 - 49
40 - 44
35 - 39
30 - 34
25 - 29
20 - 24
15 - 19
10 - 14
5-9
0-4
Garrett County
Age
85+
80 - 84
75 - 79
70 - 74
65 - 69
60 - 64
55 - 59
50 - 54
45 - 49
40 - 44
35 - 39
30 - 34
25 - 29
20 - 24
15 - 19
10 - 14
5-9
0-4
Age
85+
80 - 84
75 - 79
70 - 74
65 - 69
60 - 64
55 - 59
50 - 54
45 - 49
40 - 44
35 - 39
30 - 34
25 - 29
20 - 24
15 - 19
10 - 14
5-9
0-4
13
5
4
3
2
1
0
1
2
Percent of Population
Male
Female
4
5
5
4
3
2
Maryland
1
0
1
2
Percent of Population
Male
Female
3
4
5
Age
85+
80 - 84
75 - 79
70 - 74
65 - 69
60 - 64
55 - 59
50 - 54
45 - 49
40 - 44
35 - 39
30 - 34
25 - 29
20 - 24
15 - 19
10 - 14
5-9
0-4
3
5
4
3
2
1
0
1
2
Percent of Population
Male
Female
3
4
5
Figure 19. Population Pyramids, 2010. Source: 2010 Census, U.S. Census Bureau.
Additionally, the larger proportion of men to women in age brackets from 20-59 years old in
both Allegany and Washington Counties may be the result of the five male prisons present in the
two jurisdictions.
Western Maryland’s age structure includes a larger proportion of people older than 65 to people
of working age (defined as 20 to 64 years old) than the rest of the state as seen in Figure 20.
STAR Data Brief: Population and Demographics
14
Allegany County
Garrett County
Washington County
Rest of TSMR
Maryland
0.00
0.05
0.10
0.15
0.20
Dependency Ratio
0.25
0.30
0.35
Figure 20. Old Age Dependency Ratios (Ages 65+ / Ages 20-64), 2010. The ratios capture the number of people 65
and older relative to the number of working age people (ages 20 to 64). Source: 2010 Census, U.S. Census Bureau
Garrett County
Washington County
Allegany County
Maryland
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
Projected Growth in Population 60+
100%
120%
Figure 21. Projected Growth of Western Maryland's 60+ Population, 2000-2030. Source: Maryland Department of
Planning.
Labor Force Participation
Labor force participation rates in Western Maryland have been below the statewide average
during the past four decades, though in recent years Garrett and Washington Counties have
closed the gap as seen in Figure 22.
The labor force participation rates for men and women increased between 2000 and 2010 in all
Western Maryland counties. In general, the labor force participation rates for men have been
higher than those for women, with the exception of Allegany County, where the rate for women
was 71.4 percent compared to 64.8 percent for men in 2010, as seen in Figure 23.
STAR Data Brief: Population and Demographics
15
Labor force participation also varies by education, with higher participation rates associated
with higher levels of educational attainment. As seen in Figure 24, residents of Allegany County
with less than high school diploma or equivalent have a labor force participation rate roughly
half that of the Garrett or Washington counties.
Percent of Population 16+ in the
Labor Force
During the Allegany County workshop, we heard that Western Maryland has a higher
percentage of people with physical disabilities that may lower the labor force participation rate.
As seen in Figure 25, Allegany, Garrett and Washington Counties have a higher percentage of
people with disabilities not participating in the labor force than the Maryland statewide average.
80%
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
Allegany County
Washington County
20%
10%
0%
1970
1980
Garrett County
Maryland
1990
2000
2010
30%
78.8%
86.3%
62.8%
73.3%
78.0%
63.8%
69.9%
83.9%
2000 Female
58.4%
40%
2000 Male
52.0%
50%
67.3%
60%
49.7%
70%
64.8%
80%
71.4%
90%
75.1%
100%
57.5%
Percent of Population 16+ in the
Labor Force
Figure 22. Labor Force Participation Rates, 1970-2010. Sources: 1970, 1980, 1990 and 2000 Censuses and 2008-10
American Community Survey, U.S. Census Bureau.
20%
10%
0%
Allegany County
Garrett County
Washington County
Maryland
Figure 23. Labor Force Participation by Gender, 2000 – 2010. Sources: 2000 Census and 2008-2010 American
Community Survey 3-Year Estimates, U.S. Census Bureau.
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
89.1%
87.0%
86.4%
82.3%
84.9%
80.5%
82.6%
71.8%
78.6%
73.9%
60.4%
60%
65.3%
70%
66.8%
80%
56.1%
Allegany County
Garrett County
Washington County
Maryland
90%
71.3%
100%
16
30.5%
Percent of Population 16+ in the Labor Force
STAR Data Brief: Population and Demographics
Less than High
School
High School
Graduate
Some College or
Associates Degree
Bachelor's Degree
or Higher
Figure 24. Labor Force Participation by Educational Attainment. Source: 2008-2010 American Community Survey 3Year Estimates, U.S. Census Bureau.
Maryland
Washington County
Garrett County
Allegany County
0
5
10
15
20
25
Percent with a Disability
30
35
40
Figure 25. Percentage of the Population not in the Labor Force Population that has a Disability. Source: 2008-2010
American Community Survey 3-Year Estimates, U.S. Census Bureau.