[0
01] Mixtures of
o laws: a new
w method to esstimate the parameters
p
................... 5
Ioana VIA
ASU
Constantiin CHILARESCU
Table off content
[0
02] A multifractal model off asset returnss in the conteext of the new
economy paradigm .............................................................................. 23
Diana DE
EZSI
Emil SCAR
RLAT
[0
03] The impacct of populatioon aging on thhe sustainability of Europeean
social moodel ....................................................................................... 33
Marin DIN
NU, Marius-C
Corneliu MAR
RINAŞ
Cristian SOCOL,
S
Aura-Gabriela SOC
COL
[0
04] Vision andd strategy at BANAT-CRISA
B
ANA Financiall Investment
Company....................
.
......................................................................... 47
Ioan CUZM
MAN, Daniel MANATE, Pa
avel FĂRCAŞ
[0
05] The moneetary policy in post crisis peeriod ............................................. 58
Silviu CER
RNA
[0
06] Modeling elements for correlation thhe enterprise’s capital cosst and
.
..................................................... 79
its financial structure ....................
Dorin COSSMA
Anca-Ram
mona BOTEZA
AT
[0
07] Evolution of shares marrket price durring the comppany’s financial
results annnouncementt. Event study approach ...................................... 96
Marianna
a BOTIKA
[0
08] Old age peensions publicc expenditurees and fertilityy in Europeann
countries .......................................................................................... 119
Cosmin EN
NACHE
[0
09] The impacct of the internnational econnomic and finaancial crisis on
o the
current acccounts’ and foreign directt investmentss’ trends in the new
Member States
S
of the European
E
Uniion .............................................. 127
Camelia MILEA,
M
Alina Georgeta AIILINCĂ, Iulia LUPU
Adina CRIISTE, Floarea
a IORDACHE
3
Timisoara Journal of Economics
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7139 | www.tjee.uvt.ro | Year 2012 | Volumee 5 | Issue 17 | Pages: 3–4
Table off content
[1
10] Forecast intervals for innflation in Romania ......................................... 145
Mihaela BRATU
B
[1
11] The contexxt of modern branding
b
emeergence ....................................... 153
Sergiu BA
ARBU
Ilie CRIST
TESCU
[1
12] The sociall perception of
o actors on thhe new local public
p
manageement
and its refform. A surveyy at Timisoaraa City Hall .................................... 167
Ariana La
avinia MOŞ
Nicolae BIBU
B
[1
13] The productivity paradoox, myth or reaality? .......................................... 180
Liviu-Gab
briel CABĂU
[1
14] Models off the formation of the identtity and the im
mage of corpoorate
brand................................................................................................. 190
Lavinia Diana
D
ŢIPLEA
A
4
Timisoara Journal of Economics
eISSN: 1844 -7
7139 | www.tjee.uvt.ro | Year 2012 | Volumee 5 | Issue 17 | Pages: 3–4
THEE IMPAC
CT OF POPULATIO
ON AGIN
NG ON TH
HE SUSTTAINABILITY
E
EAN SOC
CIAL MO
ODEL
OF EUROPE
Marin DINU1, Marius-Corne
M
M
eliu MARINAŞ
Ş2 ,
3
Cristian SOCO
OL , Aura-Gabbriela SOCOLL4
The objectivve of this stud
dy is to examine briefly the
e features of
the Europe
ean social model and to presentt the main
demograph
hic evolutionss. The social model is susstainable as
long as the
ere is a virtuo
ous correlation
n between th
he objectives
settled in the
t Lisbon Sttrategy: productivity – em
mployment –
social cohe
esion. This co
orrelation getts efficiency in line with
social equitty, stimulating
g the econom
mic growth pro
ocess under
the terms of
o public finan
nces’ stabilityy. Any internal or external
factor, whicch generates the break off the previouss correlation
is able to result
r
either in
i the slowing
g down of th
he economic
growth rate
e (or even recession),
r
o in a decre
or
ease of the
employmen
nt, an emphassis of the sociial inequities or
o all, on the
most unfavvorable cond
ditions, even in all the th
hree effects
together. As
A a conseq
quence, the public debt of the EU
member sttates would get increase
ed, thus deccreasing the
possibility to
t provide so
ocial and eco
onomic cohession through
budget tran
nsfers. One of
o the factors which could represent a
threat for the model is
i constituted
d by the ag
geing of the
population, which is cau
used by the in
ncrease of life
e expectancy
and by fertiility rate decrrease. In this study, we ha
ave analyzed
the change
es in the popu
ulation structture, the evollution of the
age pyramid
d and the bud
dgetary impacct of aging.
Keywords:
population aging; deependency ratioo; age pyramid; economic grow
wth; European Union.
cation: H55;; J08; J11.
JEL Classific
1
Professor PhD
D, Academy of Economic Studiies, Departmen
nt of Economics,, Bucharest, Ro
omania
Lecturer PhD,, Academy of Economic
E
Studiees, Department of Economics, Bucharest, Rom
mania
3
Senior Lecturrer PhD, Academ
my of Economicc Studies, Deparrtment of Econo
omics, Buchareest, Romania
4
Lecturer PhD,, Academy of Economic
E
Studiees, Department of Economics, Bucharest, Rom
mania
2
33
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44 -7139 | www.tje.uvt.ro
w
| Year 2012 | Volume 5 | Issue 17 | Pages: 33–4
46
Dinu,
D
M., Marin
naş, M. C., Socol, C., & Socol,, A. G. (2012). The
T impact of population agging
on thee sustainabilityy of European social model
1. The Mainn Featuress of the Euuropean Social Moodel
The Eu
uropean soccial model re
epresents an
n integral pa
art of the Eu
uropean Union’s projectt, being
the ressult of coorrdinating a various ran
nge of policies, includin
ng the econ
nomic policies, the
employyment and social security policies implemented by the member
m
cou
untries. Thiss is the
hard core elementt of the Euro
opean constrruction, whicch is capable to pass ovver from a negative
ation to a po
ositive integgration (Dinu
u et al., 200
07). This sho
ould provide
e the change
e of the
integra
welfare
e state and to guide the
e economic and
a social changes in th
he member states
s
by me
eans of
coordin
nation instru
uments.
In this part we havve identified some of the European social mode
el features based
b
on economic
ure. Thus, the European Council has
h defined the Europe
ean social model
m
as a system
literatu
which integrates fo
our elementts: a high de
egree of social protectio
on and the provision
p
of general
g
erialized in the agreem
ments conclu
uded betwe
een the
interesst services; social dialogue, mate
social partners; so
ocial cohesio
on, namely the
t decreasse of inequitties and the provision of
o equal
es to all the Europeans;; a set of co
ommon value
es, included
d in the Lisbon Strategy,, in line
chance
with th
he Lisbon Sttrategy, with
h the Constittutional Trea
aty and with
h the Community Strategies on
Employyment. The common values
v
assumed within the Europ
pean social model mayy seam
contradictory at a first sight. On
O the one hand,
h
this mo
odel include
es certain ne
eo-liberal concepts,
as financial sustainability, compettitiveness, deregulation
d
n, liberalizattion, flexibility and
such a
individual responssibility, and on the oth
her hand it includes va
alues such as social security,
a
adaptab
bility. Howevver, as it is structured, the Europea
an model su
uggests
inclusive society and
ure on the un
nique intern
nal market by
b promotingg coherent policies,
p
findingg a solution for the failu
which fall into the
e objectives referring to growth, con
nvergence and
a cohesion
n, being stru
uctures
eralism by se
ettling the re
esources (co
ommon
so thatt it could eliiminate the deficienciess of neo-libe
policies, and their coordinatio
on) and the purpose
p
(pro
oviding the human dignity). Evaluatting the
E
U
Union
in the
e last 50 ye
ears, Sapir (2003) argued that un
ntil the
evolutiion of the European
occurre
ence of the oil shocks (1973-1975
5), Europe was
w charactterized by a synergic “m
magical
triangle” between the econom
mic growth, the
t macroecconomic stability and th
he welfare state. In
nt, there is a trade-off be
etween socia
al cohesion and low rate
es of econom
mic growth.
presen
Accord
ding to Gidd
dens (2005) the Europe
ean social model
m
comb
bines the ecconomic dyn
namism
and the social justtice. Europea
an economyy, as econom
my of the Eurropean socia
al model, regulates
the ma
arket to nott fail the in
ntegration and globaliza
ation processses (Dinu, 2004). Aiginger &
Guger (2005) havve explained
d that the European
E
m
model
should
d take into consideration the
pts referringg to respon
nsibility for the welfare
e of individu
uals, regulation of the labour
concep
relations and red
distribution through tra
ansfers. Acccording to the
t
three characteristi
c
cs, the
ean model has
h more than a social characteristic, as it inffluences the
e employmen
nt rate,
Europe
the pro
oductivity, th
he economicc growth and
d, as a conse
equence, the
e competitivveness.
34
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44 -7139 | www.tje.uvt.ro
w
| Year 2012 | Volume 5 | Issue 17 | Pages: 33–4
46
Dinu,
D
M., Marin
naş, M. C., Socol, C., & Socol,, A. G. (2012). The
T impact of population agging
on thee sustainabilityy of European social model
The term “model” is not yet characterizin
c
ng a reality within
w
EU, but
b it constittutes the fin
nality of
the me
ember statess’ convergen
nt approaches in the fie
eld of social policies and
d of labour market.
m
The te
erm „social” is not only limited to the
t
aspects related to the social policy
p
(decre
ease of
inequitties, social assistance, pensions, etc.),
e
but it a
also include
es the policies referringg to the
increasse of employyment. More
eover, the in
ncrease of employment represents the
t solution for the
sustain
nable decrease of pove
erty rate, me
eanwhile pro
oviding the stability of the
t public systems
s
for soccial insurancces. The wo
ord „Europea
an” does nott suggest the existence of the same
e social
policy within EU, but
b it has an
n institutional dimensio
on, the mem
mber countrie
es establish
hing the
pean Commission in an
nalyzing and
d coordinating the refo
orms in the
e social
role off the Europ
policies and in employment.
uropean soccial model means more than a model of social
s
policyy, as it
Therefore, the Eu
t functioning of the ecconomy
supposses a three-dimensional approach: the role of tthe state – the
– the society. With reference
e to the funcctioning of the
t
economy, EU combines the economic
h’s sources of
o a markett economy with
w
the sociial dialogue in the colle
ective negotiations.
growth
As for the role of the
t state, the member countries
c
are
e not only frree market economies
e
b also
but
es and theirr purpose iss to fight witth failures on the free market.
m
In te
erms of
redistrributive state
societyy, EU both provides
p
the support for the personss, and it also promotes solidarity between
them, the purpose
e being to cconsolidate the
t social cohesion
c
levvel. Aging prrocess may lead to
E
so
ocial model, influencing both the so
ocial compon
nent, as well as the
weakening of the European
mic one. Thu
us, aging lea
ads to increa
asing depen
ndence ratio
o of older pe
eople, which means
econom
more ssocial transfers paid byy working population. A
As well, agin
ng process coincides with
w
the
declining trend of employmen
nt, leading to
o reduction of the poten
ntial GDP an
nd of the economic
h rate on lon
ng term. The
e increase in
n social tran
nsfers will in
ncrease the budget defiicit and
growth
public debt beyon
nd the limitts of sustain
nability, which will neggatively affect macroeconomic
etitiveness (B
Blanchard, 2006).
2
compe
2. Measurementt of Demoographic Change inn European Union
Not on
nly the agein
ng of the po
opulation, but also the decrease off the birth rate,
r
related
d to the
increasse of life exxpectancy re
epresent the
e main challenges from
m an econom
mic, budgeta
ary and
social point of view within EU.
E These evolutions
e
w
would have a negative
e impact up
pon the
a
they will generate the
t
increase
e in public expenses,
e
e
especially
for those
potenttial growth and
referrin
ng to pensio
ons, to healtth care and to the socia
al services fo
or the aged persons Sch
hneider
(2009)). The popullation’s structure changge rate will depend
d
on the
t trends recorded by the life
expecttancy, by the birth rate and by the
e number off persons who
w
migrate in EU. Thatt is the
reason
n why the lattest predictions made in
n Europe sho
ould be cauttiously interpreted; theyy do not
reflect but the de
emographic changes if serious future changes were not in the tend
dencies
he last yearss. According to the curre
ent predictions, the total EU populattion will
recorded during th
pproximatelyy 3% until 20
060, and itss structure will
w differ fro
om the curre
ent one.
get inccrease by ap
Accord
ding to the forecasts made
m
for th
he period 2008-2060,
2
the Europe
ean Union will be
35
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44 -7139 | www.tje.uvt.ro
w
| Year 2012 | Volume 5 | Issue 17 | Pages: 33–4
46
Dinu,
D
M., Marin
naş, M. C., Socol, C., & Socol,, A. G. (2012). The
T impact of population agging
on thee sustainabilityy of European social model
characcterized by the
t increase
e of the stre
ess of the agged populattion upon th
he citizens who
w are
able to
o work, beca
ause of the demographic
d
c evolutions explained within
w
this sttudy.
2.1. The evolution of the life expectaancy, fertilityy rate and im
mmigration in European Union
Since 1960, the life expectan
ncy increased by 8 yearss, and the fo
orecasts for 2060 show
w that it
e 8.5 years higher for men (reach
hing 84.5 ye
ears old) an
nd 7 years higher for women
will be
(reaching 89 yearss old). Life expectancy
e
is
i directly co
orrelated witth the living standard and that
ore developed economies will have
e the highestt life expecttancy in
is the reason why the EU’s mo
e terms in which the
e new mem
mber counttries recove
ered most of the
2060. Under the
opment diffe
erences, they would reccord the high
hest increasses in life exxpectancy. Thus,
T
if
develo
compa
ared to 200
08, in 2060
0 the gap between th
he men’s liffe expectan
ncy in EU will
w get
decrea
ased from 13
1 years to 5 years (rea
aching 85.5
5 years old in Italy and 80.5 yearss old in
Lithuania), and tha
at of the wo
omen will ge
et decreased
d from 7.7 years (84.3 years
y
old in France
6.6 in Roma
ania) to 4.1 years (90.1
1 years old in France an
nd 86.5 years old in Bu
ulgaria).
and 76
This ph
henomenon will generatte the increa
ase in perce
entage of the
e persons who
w will live at
a least
75 yea
ars and, as a conseque
ence, the in
ncrease of the expenses for pensio
ons and for health
care. SO
S that nega
ative effects could not occur
o
in the social
s
insura
ance budgetts, the population’s
employyment rate should gett increased, including in the case
e of the segments which are
currently less integgrated on th
he labour ma
arket.
08, the fertility rate wass of 1.52 children, comp
pared to a 2.1
2 level which is necesssary in
In 200
order to
t stabilize the largene
ess of the population
p
in
n the absen
nce of migra
ation. Accorrding to
forecassts, the rate
e will very sllow increase
e within the analyzed pe
eriod, name
ely to 1.57 in
n 2030
and to
o 1.64 in 20
060, these vvalues beingg inferior to
o the value of
o 1.9, whicch was recorded in
1960. If in the EU
U countries the family life gets in line with the working hours and certain
es are provid
ded for child
d raise, then
n the birth ra
ate will be higher
h
than the
t forecastt levels.
service
As for tthe number of immigran
nts coming from
f
other countries,
c
the forecast shows
s
that itt will be
60 millions until 2060. A slowing down
n in the inccrease recorded duringg the last years
y
is
m
in 2008, the eq
quivalent of 0.33%
0
of the
e EU popula
ation, to
predictted, namely from 1.68 millions
0.98 m
millions in 2020 and to
t 0.8 millions in 206
60, this rep
presenting 0.16%
0
of th
he total
popula
ation. Migrattion can partially compe
ensate the effects
e
generated by the
e low birth ra
ate and
by the population ageing, onlyy if it supposses an increa
ase in numb
ber of the wo
orking-age persons.
t memberr states whicch encounte
ered a population decrea
ase or its aggeing in
For this purpose, the
hythm should extend th
he immigran
nts’ rights so that theirr social inte
egration
an acccelerated rh
difficulties could be eliminate
ed. Among the three analyzed phe
enomena, at
a present only
o
the
r
and the migration can be inffluenced, as social and labour market
m
reforms are
birth rate
necesssary to stimu
ulate them.
2.2. The evolution of the elderly and of the workiing-age perssons
The ch
hange in the populatio
on’s structurre in 2060,, compared to the present time, can be
outline
ed by meanss of the age
e pyramid, this concept describing the form which existed
d at the
36
Tiimisoara Journaal of Economics | eISSN: 184
44 -7139 | www.tje.uvt.ro
w
| Year 2012 | Volume 5 | Issue 17 | Pages: 33–4
46
Dinu,
D
M., Marin
naş, M. C., Socol, C., & Socol,, A. G. (2012). The
T impact of population agging
on thee sustainabilityy of European social model
beginn
ning of the 20
2 th centuryy for the disttribution of various age
e groups in human popu
ulation.
When tthe modern welfare sta
ate was concceived (by B
Bismarck), th
he costs whiich were neccessary
for its functioning were low ass most of the
e human po
opulation wa
as representing the base
e of the
pyramiid (namely the
t
youthful people an
nd the popu
ulation which
h was able to work), and
a
the
percen
ntage of the pensioners from the ap
pex was low
w. As a consequence, th
he budget tra
ansfers
could h
have been granted
g
and even increa
ased, withou
ut affecting the
t sustaina
ability of the
e public
finance
es. The EU population’s structure showed a shape
s
simila
ar to the pyyramid until 1970,
when tthe maximum of the ba
aby-boom ge
eneration was reached;; even unde
er these term
ms, the
fertilityy rate was 25% lower in 1965, if com
mpared to 1938.
1
As a re
esult, after 1970,
1
anoth
her form of the
t percenta
age of huma
an populatio
on accordingg to the
age gro
oups has be
een outlined, and the tendency is to
o take the sh
hape of a revverse pyram
mid. The
structu
ure of total population in the shape
e of a pyram
mid correspo
onds to the situation in
n which
there is a high birtth rate and a low life exxpectancy. The
T ideal sh
hape is that of a column
n which
only na
arrows for a very old agge, thus reflecting the in
ncrease in life expectan
ncy. Nowada
ays, the
existen
nce of a deccline in the fertility
f
rate corresponde
ed to the inccrease of the population
n which
is betw
ween 45 and 65 yearrs old, nam
mely the bab
by boom ge
eneration after World War II.
Accord
ding to Figurre 1, in 2008
8 a higher pe
ercentage of the popula
ation betwee
en 40 and 50 years
old wa
as recorded, while the predictions
p
f 2060 reffer to a sha
for
ape of the human population’s
structu
ure which is larger for th
he persons over
o
50 yearrs old.
Figure
F
1. Age pyramides fo
or EU-27 pop
pulation, 2008
8 and 2060
Source: Economic Poliicy Committee (2008)
37
Tiimisoara Journaal of Economics | eISSN: 184
44 -7139 | www.tje.uvt.ro
w
| Year 2012 | Volume 5 | Issue 17 | Pages: 33–4
46
Dinu,
D
M., Marin
naş, M. C., Socol, C., & Socol,, A. G. (2012). The
T impact of population agging
on thee sustainabilityy of European social model
At pressent, half off the total human popullation in the
e European Union is at least 40 yea
ars old,
while in 2060, half of them w
will be over 48 years old. The number of the persons
p
who
o are at
65 years old exceeded very
v
little the
e number of the children
n (below 15 years
y
old) in
n 2008,
least 6
but in 2060 the diifference between the tw
wo age grou
ups will incre
ease, so thatt the ratio between
them w
will equal th
he value of two.
t
Moreovver, the ratio
o between th
he number of
o persons o
over 80
years old and the
e total numb
ber of children will get increased from 28% in 2008 to 80% in
2060. As a conseq
quence, the
e percentage
e of the perssons who arre over 65 years
y
old outt of the
total human
h
popu
ulation will get
g increase
ed from 17.1
1% in 2008
8 to 30% in 2060, and among
them, 40% would live more th
han 80 yearss, in comparrison with the current pe
ercentage, which
w
is
25%. TThe population’s ageingg tendency corresponds
c
s to the decrease by 11
1.3 percentss of the
working-age population (betwe
een 15 and 64 years old
d), up to the
e level of 56%
% in 2060.
60 year mosst of the me
ember countries will ha
ave a shape
e of the pop
pulation’s sttructure
In 206
which will be more
e narrowed for
f children and larger for
f the aged
d population. Germany and
a the
Southe
ern countrie
es tend to ta
ake the shape of a reve
erse pyramid, while the
e Northern and
a
the
Anglo-S
Saxon counttries are pre
edicted to ta
ake the shap
pe of a colum
mn, under the terms of a birth
rate which is similar to that of
o the pensio
oners and of
o the life exxpectancy increase. Amo
ong the
EU cou
untries, alm
most half of them would
d record an increase of
o human po
opulation in 2060,
while this
t
would de
ecrease in the new EU member
m
cou
untries (exce
ept Cyprus) and
a in Greecce, Italy
and Ge
ermany. In order
o
to outtline the dem
mographic cchanges from
m all the me
ember countries in
2060, compared to 2010, Ta
able 1 inclu
udes the evo
olutions of the
t
age gro
oups in the human
popula
ation’s struccture. The existence
e
off a low birtth rate is mirrored
m
in the percenttage of
person
ns below 15
5 years old,, which will record a decrease
d
in all the Eurropean econ
nomies,
exceptt Sweden.
The ch
hange of th
he human population’s
p
s structure generates risks
r
which are so higgh, if it
mirrore
ed in the exxistence of lower percen
ntages of ch
hildren and of populatio
on which is able to
work a
and in a high
her percenta
age of the aged
a
persons. From thiss point of vie
ew, the economies
which are most affected
a
by the demogrraphic evolu
ution are Po
oland, Roma
ania and Slovakia,
althouggh nowadayys the structure is more
e favorable,, if referringg to the com
mmunity’s avverage.
Thus, in
i 2060, app
proximately 35% of their population
n would be over
o
65 yearrs old, compared to
an EU--27 average of 30%, while the perce
entage of the population
n which is able to work will get
decrea
ased by at least 17 percents, to approximate
a
ly 53% of the total. On
n the contra
ary, the
countries belongin
ng to the co
ontinental sub-model (e
except Germ
many), the Northern
N
cou
untries,
the An
nglo-Saxon ones
o
and Cyyprus will be
e the least vulnerable
v
to the demo
ographic variations.
of the total human
Both in
n 2010 and also in 2060, they will have higher children percentages
p
popula
ation, while approximate
a
ely 57% of th
he human po
opulation will be betwee
en 15 and 64 years
old, ass a result of the immigrants’ inflow and of a hiigher birth rate,
r
as in th
he cases of France
and Ire
eland. More
eover, the pe
ercentage of
o the aged persons willl be lower than
t
the Eu
uropean
averagge, namely approximate
a
ly 27%, for the
t personss over 65 years old, and
d 10% for th
he older
person
ns (over 80
0 years old
d), although the life expectancy
e
is quite higher within
n these
econom
mies.
38
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44 -7139 | www.tje.uvt.ro
w
| Year 2012 | Volume 5 | Issue 17 | Pages: 33–4
46
Dinu,
D
M., Marin
naş, M. C., Socol, C., & Socol,, A. G. (2012). The
T impact of population agging
on thee sustainabilityy of European social model
Table
T
1. Struccture of population within the EU-27 member counttries
Structure of human
n
pop
pulation (%)
EU-27
Austria
B
Belgium
B
Bulgaria
Czecch Republic
Cyprus
D
Denmark
Estonia
Finland
France
G
Germany
Greece
Ireland
Italy
Latvia
LLithuania
Luxxembourg
Malta
Gre
eat Britain
Ne
etherlands
Poland
P
Portugal
R
Romania
S
Slovakia
S
Slovenia
Spain
S
Sweden
H
Hungary
0-1
14
2010
15.5
14.9
16.8
13.5
14.1
17.1
18,1
15.1
16.6
18.4
13.4
14.3
20.7
14
13.7
14.7
18
15.6
17.3
17.5
15
15.3
15.1
15.2
13.8
15
16.5
14.8
2060
14
13.8
15.6
12
12.3
15
16.3
14
15.7
16.7
12.6
12.9
17
12.1
12.3
12.4
16.2
12.7
16.6
15
11.4
12.8
11.5
11.1
12.8
12.9
16.5
12.7
15-64
2010
2
20
060
67.1
5
56
67.5
57
7.2
66
57
7.8
69.1
53
3.4
70.5
54
4.4
70.3
58
8.8
65.5
58
8.7
67.9
55
5.3
66.4
56
6.4
64.8
57
7.4
66
55
66.8
55
5.4
68
57
7.8
65.6
55
5.1
69
53
3.3
69.2
52
2.9
67.8
60
0.3
69.6
54
4.9
66.3
58
8.7
67.2
57
7.8
71.5
52
2.5
66.9
56
6.3
70
53
3.6
72.5
52
2.7
69.5
53
3.8
68.3
54
4.7
65.3
56
6.9
68.6
55
5.4
o
over
65
2010
0
2060
17
30
17.6
6
29
17.2
2
26.5
17.5
5
34.2
15.4
4
33.4
12.7
7
26.2
16.4
4
25
17
30.7
17.1
1
27.8
16.7
7
25.9
20.6
6
32.5
18.9
9
31.7
11.3
3
25.2
20.3
3
32.7
17.4
4
34.4
16
34.7
14.3
3
23.6
14.8
8
32.4
16.4
4
24.7
15.3
3
27.3
13.6
6
36.2
17.8
8
30.9
14.9
9
35
12.3
3
36.1
16.6
6
33.4
16.7
7
32.3
18.2
2
26.6
16.6
6
31.9
over 80
8
2010
2060
4.7
12.1
4.7
11.4
4.9
10.2
3.8
12.8
3.6
13.4
2.8
8.6
4.1
10
4
10.7
4.6
10.8
5.3
10.8
5.1
13.2
4.6
13.5
2.8
9.6
5.8
14.9
3.9
11.9
3.6
12
3.8
8.9
3.3
11.8
4.6
9
3.9
10.9
3.3
13.1
4.5
12.8
3
13.1
2.7
13.2
3.9
13.9
4.8
14.5
5.3
10
3.9
12.6
Source: Eurostat database, 2010
Roman
nia is included in the group of the most
m
vulnera
able econom
mies, under the terms in
n which
the pre
edicted decrrease of the human pop
pulation is ovverlapping the decrease
e tendenciess of the
human
n population
n which is ab
ble to work and
a of incre
ease in the percentage
p
o the perso
of
ons who
are ove
er 65 years old. Under these
t
terms, the human
n population
n’s structure tends towa
ards the
unsusttainable sha
ape of the re
everse pyramid in 2060
0 (Figure 2). The higherr and higherr stress
upon tthe working--age population can alsso be notice
ed in the analysis made
e with refere
ence to
percen
ntage of the
e human population witth ages betw
ween 25 an
nd 54 yearss old, this ca
ategory
representing 80% of the natio
onal employyed citizens. Their perce
entage will decrease
d
fro
om 45%
0, the decre
easing trend
d being
of the total population, recorrded at pressent, to 32..8% in 2060
presen
nt since 202
25. Accordin
ng to the forrecasts mad
de by Eurosttat for Romania, the ch
hanging
rhythm
m for the hum
man populattion’s structure is quite slower until 2030. Thuss, during the
e period
2010-2
2030, the percentage
p
o the perso
of
ons who are over 65 yea
ars old will get increase
ed by 5
39
Tiimisoara Journaal of Economics | eISSN: 184
44 -7139 | www.tje.uvt.ro
w
| Year 2012 | Volume 5 | Issue 17 | Pages: 33–4
46
Dinu,
D
M., Marin
naş, M. C., Socol, C., & Socol,, A. G. (2012). The
T impact of population agging
on thee sustainabilityy of European social model
percen
nts, and duriing the subssequent twenty years byy 10 percentts, while the
e percentage
e of the
citizens who are able
a
to work
k will decrea
ase by 3.2 percents,
p
for the first time interval,, and 3
times during the period
p
2030
0-2050. The
e analysis made
m
for the
e demographic changess in the
of the EU-27 member countries outlines that the
ey will not encounter the
e same intensity of
case o
the risks related to
o the popula
ation’s agein
ng, although
h all of them
m will show the same ten
ndency.
mportant risks refers to the increase
e in the dep
pendency ratte of those who
w are
One off the most im
inactivve on the active
a
perso
ons, and thiis could generate the collapse off the publicc social
insurances system
m, in the absence of imp
portant reforms during th
he next ten years.
y
Figure
F
2. Age pyramides fo
or Romania population,
p
2
2008
and 206
60
Source: Economic Poliicy Committee (2008)
2.3. Calculattion of the dependency ratios
So tha
at we could
d outline the stress de
egree of the
e population’s ageing process up
pon the
working-age popullation or the
e labour forcce, we have used four in
ndicators, th
he first two of
o them
ng the stresss upon the working-age
e persons, and
a
the other two upon
n the emplo
oyment.
showin
The va
alues of the
e last two indicators can be influe
enced by th
he reforms for increasing the
participation on th
he labour ma
arket, including for immigrants.
a)
a old age dep
pendency ratio, calculate
ed as a perccentage ratio
o between th
he populatio
on over 65 ye
ears old and
d
the workking-age pop
pulation (bettween 15 an
nd 64 years old).
Accord
ding to the Eurostat forrecasts, the
e EU-27 pop
pulation whiich is able to work would get
decrea
ased by 50 millions unttil 2060, while the number of perso
ons who are
e at least 65
5 years
old wo
ould get incrreased by 67
6 millions. As a conseq
quence, the
e current rattio of four persons
p
who arre able to work (betwee
en 15 and 64
4 years old) for each pe
erson who iss over 65 ye
ears old
will become of two
o to one only. The highe
est decrease
e will occur during the period
p
2015
5-2035,
40
Tiimisoara Journaal of Economics | eISSN: 184
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w
| Year 2012 | Volume 5 | Issue 17 | Pages: 33–4
46
Dinu,
D
M., Marin
naş, M. C., Socol, C., & Socol,, A. G. (2012). The
T impact of population agging
on thee sustainabilityy of European social model
when the baby bo
oom genera
ation will leave the lab
bour markett. The differrence betwe
een the
maximum and the
e minimum dependency
d
rates of the
e EU membe
er countriess will increasse from
14 percents in 20
008 to 30 percents in 2060, under the term
ms in which Poland, Lith
huania,
Roman
nia and Slovvakia will reccord a number of depe
endants betw
ween 65 and 70 for each 100
person
ns who are able to wo
ork. Currentlly, Poland and
a
Slovakia
a record a percentage of the
depend
dant citizenss which is ap
pproximatelyy 9 percentss lower than the EU averrage.
b)
b total depen
ndency ratio,, which repre
esents the percentage
p
o the popula
of
ation which is not able to
t work (over
65 yearss old and be
elow 15 yearrs old) out off the human
n population which is able to work
This in
ndicator can
n also be obtained by adding the dependenccy rate of the children to the
depend
dency rate of
o the aged persons, ca
alculated as a ratio betw
ween the po
opulations which
w
is
below 15 years old
d and the pe
ersons who are able to work. The estimates
e
show that the rate of
total dependency in EU-27 will get increa
ased from 49
9% in 2008 to 79% in 2060,
2
the in
ncrease
5. The analyysis of the evolutions forecast
f
forr the new member
m
being quite lower until 2015
countries and for the Southern countriess outlines th
he transition
n from a quite more favvorable
situatio
on of them at
a present to
o a situation
n which is less favorable
e beginning with 2045, when it
will be materialize
ed in the exisstence of a dependencyy ratio which
h will be sup
perior to all the EU
old me
ember counttries. The low
wer living sta
andard, the low employment rates, and also the lower
social transfers to
owards familly and childrren within th
hese econom
mies can represent cau
uses for
the strress increasse upon the population which is ab
ble to work, the rhythm
m being supe
erior to
that re
ecorded with
hin the devveloped economies belo
onging to th
he Northern
n, Anglo-Saxon and
contine
ental sub-models (the only exceptio
on being Gerrmany).
c)
c economic d
dependency ratio, which outlines the
e percentage
e of the inacctive citizenss who are ovver 65 years
old out o
of the emplo
oyed populattion, of whicch ages are between
b
15 and 64 years old.
This indicators outtlines to a greater exten
nt the impacct of the refo
orms introdu
uced in the pension
p
system
ms, which reffer to the co
onditioning of
o granting transfers for extending the period sp
pent on
the lab
bour markett by the aged persons (even over 65 years old).
o
Even under
u
the te
erms of
increassing the pen
nsioning age
e, EU-27 will record an in
ncrease in number
n
of th
he persons who
w are
over 65 years old and who lefft the labourr market from 37 to 72 for each 10
00 workers. Poland
omania wou
uld record a ratio of on
ne unemplo
oyed aged person
p
to evvery one wo
orker in
and Ro
d by a
2060 year, while Bulgaria, Lithuania,
L
H
Hungary
and
d Slovakia would be characterize
c
depend
dency rate of 90%. As for Romania, the ratio will be infe
erior to the European average
a
until 2
2040, and afterwards
a
itt will get inccreased by 41 percentss, if comparred to 11 pe
ercents
recorded for EU-27
7. On the co
ontrary, econ
nomies whicch are the le
east vulnera
able, if we co
onsider
the ch
hanges in th
he economicc structure, will record a percenta
age of the dependent
d
p
persons
which will be lower than 66 fo r every 100 workers.
d)
d total econo
omic depend
dency ratio, w
which is dete
ermined as a ratio betwe
een the total unemploye
ed populatio
on
and the employed population
p
be
etween 15 and
a 64 yearss old.
41
Tiimisoara Journaal of Economics | eISSN: 184
44 -7139 | www.tje.uvt.ro
w
| Year 2012 | Volume 5 | Issue 17 | Pages: 33–4
46
Dinu,
D
M., Marin
naş, M. C., Socol, C., & Socol,, A. G. (2012). The
T impact of population agging
on thee sustainabilityy of European social model
This is the most co
omplete indicator, as it outlines the
e number off the persons who beneffit from
the bu
udget transffers (pensioners, childrren, inactive
e persons, etc.)
e
and who depend on the
supporrt of the workers. This indicator sho
ould get deccreased with
hin EU-27 frrom 124% in
n 2008
to 122
2% in 2020, both as a result of imp
proving the labour mark
ket’s efficien
ncy (increase
e in the
women
n’s employm
ment rate), and also as a conssequence of
o decreasin
ng the birtth rate
(materrialized in the decrease
e in childre
en’s percenttage of the total population). During the
period 2020-2060
0, the high increase
i
in percentage of the elderly, which iss not compe
ensated
by the increase in
n the popula
ation which is able to work
w
(nor of the workerss) will resultt in the
increasse of the tottal depende
ency rate from 122% to 151% in EU
U-27. All the member co
ountries
will record quite higher ratess beginningg with 2020
0, but in Lithuania, Poland, Slovak
kia and
Roman
nia the incre
ease will be much highe
er (approxim
mately 60 pe
ercents). In 2060, our country
c
would record the highest
h
level in EU-27, when
w
one wo
orker should
d support 2.1 persons who
w are
potenttial beneficia
aries from transfers.
t
O the contrrary, Denma
On
ark, Sweden, the Nethe
erlands,
Cypruss and Great Britain, in 2060,
2
will re
ecord a rate
e of total eco
onomic dependency wh
hich will
be low
wer than the
e European average reccorded at prresent, as a result of the increase
e in the
women
n’s employm
ment rate, an
nd also thatt of the perssons who are
e over 55 ye
ears old and
d of the
immigrrants.
Out off the four in
ndicators, th
he member countries could
c
especcially improvve the last two by
introdu
ucing reform
ms, those of which referr to the emp
ployed popu
ulation. That is the reasson why
the ecconomies wh
hich currenttly record an employme
ent rate which is highe
er than thatt of the
Europe
ean average
e (the Northe
ern and the Anglo-Saxon
A
n countries) encounter a quite lowerr stress
upon tthe personss who are a
active on th
he labour market,
m
altho
ough the hu
uman population’s
structu
ure is unfavorable. On the
t
contraryy, the new member
m
cou
untries and the
t
Southerrn ones
(excep
pt Cyprus), which
w
are currently characterized byy a lower em
mployment rate,
r
record a quite
lower sstress upon the personss who are ab
ble to work and
a a quite higher one upon
u
the em
mployed
citizens. However, until 2060, both depen
ndency categgories will re
ecord an increase which
h will be
higher than the European average
a
(Za
aidi et al., 2006). Acccording to Eurostat forecasts
(includ
ded in Table 2), we can notice that the old mem
mbers of the
e European Union will succeed
in neuttralizing the impact of population’s
p
ageing to a greater exte
ent by increasing emplo
oyment,
while tthe new member countries will havve a lower potential to decrease
d
the stress sup
pported
by the population which
w
is able to work an
nd by the em
mployed citizzens.
In orde
er to calculate the econo
omic depend
dency ratio, was estimated that the
e employmen
nt rates
of people between
n 15-64 years will be 70
0% in 2060,, precisely th
he level set in 2000 under the
oyment
Lisbon Strategy fo
or 2010 ye
ear. In the elderly
e
case
e, the assumption wass that emplo
growth
h rate by 15
5 percentage
e points up to a level of
o 60% in 20
060. The qu
uite low proggresses
related
d to the total percentage of the employed
e
pe
ersons are the
t
result of
o the population’s
ageingg process. Thus,
T
the de
ecrease in th
he percentagge of the po
opulation wh
hich is able to
t work
by 11 percents willl also be miirrored in the decrease of the emplo
oyed popula
ation by 19 millions
m
0. As for the unemploym
ment rate, th
he forecasts were that itt would
during the period 2010-2060
decrea
ase by 1.5 percents, if compared
c
to
o the level re
ecorded in 2008,
2
up to 5.8%
5
in 206
60. Due
42
Tiimisoara Journaal of Economics | eISSN: 184
44 -7139 | www.tje.uvt.ro
w
| Year 2012 | Volume 5 | Issue 17 | Pages: 33–4
46
Dinu,
D
M., Marin
naş, M. C., Socol, C., & Socol,, A. G. (2012). The
T impact of population agging
on thee sustainabilityy of European social model
to the high increa
ase of the aged
a
popula
ation after 2
2020, the esstimates are
e that mostt of the
membe
er countriess will record
d a decreasse of the la
abour force,, except Cyprus, Luxem
mbourg,
Ireland
d, Great Britain, Francce and Swe
eden, as a result of an
a assumed
d higher infflow of
immigrrants. To con
nclude, the increase in the rate of p
participation
n on the labo
our market in
i most
of the states and the
t increase
e in the net level
l
of imm
migration in some
s
of them
m will only re
esult in
moderating the de
ecrease of employment
e
t caused byy the decrea
ase of the population
p
w
which
is
able to
o work during the period
d 2020-2060
0.
Table
T
2. Depe
endency ratio
os in the EU-27 member co
ountries (201
10 and 2060 years)
De
ependency
ratios
EU-27
Austria
B
Belgium
B
Bulgaria
Czecch Republic
Cyprus
D
Denmark
Estonia
Finland
France
G
Germany
Greece
Ireland
Italy
Latvia
LLithuania
Luxxembourg
Malta
Gre
eat Britain
Ne
etherlands
Poland
P
Portugal
R
Romania
S
Slovakia
S
Slovenia
Spain
S
Sweden
H
Hungary
(Popullation 65+ an
on
nd Inactive population To
otal non-emp
ployed
Populatio
65+/Em
65+/Popula
ation
15-)/
mployed population/Emp
ployed
(15-64))
Population (15-64
4) population
n (15-64) population(15
p
5-64)
2010
2
2060
2010
2060
0
2010
2060
2010
2
2060
25
53
49
9
79
37
72
125
1
151
26
51
48
8
75
35
63
104
1
130
26
46
52
2
73
41
68
140
1
162
25
64
45
5
86
38
91
123
1
176
22
61
42
2
84
31
81
108
1
155
18
44
42
2
70
23
53
95
1
120
25
43
53
3
70
30
50
96
1
113
25
56
47
7
81
31
73
101
1
147
26
49
51
1
77
35
63
111
1
134
26
45
54
4
74
39
66
138
1
158
31
59
52
2
82
42
73
111
1
137
28
57
50
0
80
43
86
137
1
177
17
44
47
7
73
22
55
107
1
134
31
59
52
2
81
50
89
153
1
181
25
64
45
5
87
32
88
101
1
163
23
66
44
4
89
33
92
115
1
180
21
39
48
8
66
33
61
131
1
160
21
59
44
4
82
38
95
158
1
199
25
42
51
1
70
32
51
109
1
123
23
47
49
9
73
28
57
93
1
119
19
69
40
0
91
30
106
131
2
201
27
55
49
9
77
34
67
111
1
139
21
65
43
3
87
30
99
133
2
210
17
68
38
8
90
27
96
120
1
177
24
62
44
4
86
34
87
109
1
168
24
59
46
6
83
36
79
118
1
149
28
47
53
3
76
34
56
101
1
122
24
58
46
6
81
41
91
148
1
193
Source: Eurostat database, 2010
43
Tiimisoara Journaal of Economics | eISSN: 184
44 -7139 | www.tje.uvt.ro
w
| Year 2012 | Volume 5 | Issue 17 | Pages: 33–4
46
Dinu,
D
M., Marin
naş, M. C., Socol, C., & Socol,, A. G. (2012). The
T impact of population agging
on thee sustainabilityy of European social model
2.4. Impact of aging on public spendding
Accord
ding to the estimates made by European
E
Co
ommission (2009a) the public sp
pending
related
d to the pop
pulation’s aggeing will inccrease in EU
U-27 by approximately 4.7
4 percentss of the
GDP until 2060, from a curre
ent level of 23.1%.
2
The estimates made
m
in 200
08 year outline the
ed within th
he EU-27 member
m
cou
untries if they evolved without anyy other
evolutiions recorde
change
es of the soccial systemss and of the labour mark
ket. The prevvious projections regard
ding the
demoggraphic chan
nges were elaborated
e
in
n 2006. If compared to the report made in tha
at year,
the most importa
ant decreasing reviewss of the bu
udget impacct of ageingg are recorded by
orms of
Portuggal, Hungary and the Czech Republic, as these economies elaborated certain refo
the pe
ension systems. The cattegories of spending
s
wh
hich will increases are those
t
for pe
ensions
(2.4 pe
ercents of the GDP), fo
or health carre (1.5 perccents of the GDP), for lo
ong-term ca
are (1.1
percen
nts of the GD
DP), while th
he spending for educatio
on and for unemployme
u
ent would de
ecrease
by 0.2 percentage points of GDP. The bud
dget impact upon the me
ember countries is not the
t one
d
b
between
the
e evolutions of the demographic strructures. Acccording
predictted by the differences
to them
m, the new member co
ountries and
d the Southe
ern econom
mies should have record
ded the
highesst increases of the publicc spending, while the na
ational budggets of the Northern
N
and
d AngloSaxon countries would
w
have been
b
the lea
ast exposed.. However, this
t
suppose
ed correlatio
on does
e gaps betwe
een the national employyment rates and the gen
nerosity
not alsso take into account the
levels of the redisttribution sysstems.
ding to the estimates made by European
E
Commission (2009a), we
w can notiice the
Accord
following differencces between the EU-27 member
m
states:
─ The
e increase off the public spending
s
will be the high
hest (7 perce
ents of the GDP or more) in nine
of the membe
er states (LLuxembourg,, Greece, Slovenia,
S
Cyprus, Malta, the Nethe
erlands,
Romania, Spain and Irelan
nd), although
h the initial level of bud
dget spendin
ng is quite lower in
Romania and Cyprus
C
(13.1%
%, respective
ely 15.4% of the GDP);
─ forr the second group of countries – Be
elgium, Finlan
nd, the Czecch Republic, Lithuania, Slovakia,
gre
eat Britain, Germany
G
and
d Hungary – the
t cost for the population’s ageing is more limitted, but
it still
s remainss very high (between 4 and
a
7 perce
ents of the GDP).
G
Some of these co
ountries
implemented a reform for the
t public redistribution systems
s
in order
o
to limit the future in
ncrease
of spending;
s
─ the
e increase more
m
than for percentagge points off the GDP, in Bulgaria, Sweden, Portugal,
Ausstria, France
e, Denmark, Italy, Latvia, Estonia and
d Poland. Att a first sightt, we can nottice the
incclusion, in the same grroup, of the
e Northern countries,
c
w
which
are ch
haracterized by the
implementation
n of the flexxicurity princiiple, and of some new member
m
countries, in wh
hich the
population’s ageing occurrs in an acccelerated rhythm. But some
s
of the
ese last eco
onomies
implemented essential
e
refo
orms of the pension sysstems, in som
me of them these reform
ms also
sup
pposing the partial tran
nsition to prrivate pensio
on systems (Bulgaria, Estonia,
E
Latvvia, and
Poland).
The inccrease of th
he public spe
ending in th
he member countries
c
is significantlyy influenced
d by the
increasse of the bu
udget resourrces granted
d for pension
ns, under th
he terms in which
w
the am
mounts
44
Tiimisoara Journaal of Economics | eISSN: 184
44 -7139 | www.tje.uvt.ro
w
| Year 2012 | Volume 5 | Issue 17 | Pages: 33–4
46
Dinu,
D
M., Marin
naş, M. C., Socol, C., & Socol,, A. G. (2012). The
T impact of population agging
on thee sustainabilityy of European social model
granted for health
h care and for long-term care vary by maxim
mum 3.3 pe
ercents (in Malta),
respecctively 4.7 percents
p
(in Netherland
ds). As for pensions,
p
th
he stress upon the inssurance
budgett mostly increases in Luxembourg (15.2 perce
ents of the GDP),
G
Greecce (12.4 perrcents),
Cypruss (11.4 perccents), Roma
ania (9.2 pe
ercents) and
d Slovenia (8
8.8 percentss) while in Estonia,
E
Latvia,, Poland, Ita
aly and Swe
eden, the exxpenses exp
pressed as a percentagge of the GDP will
decrea
ase. If the first five economies do not im
mplement an
a additiona
al reform ffor the
redistrribution systtem, the esttimates are that they will
w grant more than 15
5% of the GDP
G
for
pensio
ons in 2060 year. There
e is no linea
ar solution of
o the publicc spending with
w
pension
ns as a
percen
ntage of the GDP duringg the period 2010-2060
0. Thus, in te
en of the co
ountries (the
e Czech
Republic, German
ny, Slovakia
a, Lithuania
a, Luxembou
urg, Hungary, the Nettherlands, Greece,
G
Austria
a and Latvia
a), the perccentage of the budget resources for pension
ns of the GDP will
decrea
ase during the next two
o decades, reaching
r
the
e lowest leve
el recorded before 203
30 year.
For the
e first seven
n economiess, the stresss upon the budget
b
will re
each a maximum before
e 2060
year. O
On the contrary, for oth
her six coun
ntries (Bulga
aria, Ireland, Cyprus, Malta, Roman
nia and
Great B
Britain), the increase of pension
p
spen
nding is contiinuous during the entire analyzed perriod.
Conclusion
C
ns
In this study we have
h
evaluatted why the
e aging popu
ulation is a threat to th
he European
n social
model.. This processs affects all three com
mponents of the magic triangle
t
of th
he European
n social
model:: social coh
hesion, econ
nomic growtth and maccroeconomicc stability. Thus,
T
reducing the
workfo
orce will deccrease the potential grow
wth rate of GDP from about 2.25%
% in 2000 to 1.75%
in 201
15 and lesss than 1% in
n 2060 (according to E
European Commission, 2009b). Also, the
sustain
nability of public
p
financces will be affected
a
advversely by the
t
doublingg in the nexxt three
decade
es, of the public
p
spending on pensions and health carre. This indiicates that further
reform
m of social welfare
w
syste
ems is need
ded, becausse the actua
al system of
o social pro
otection
exercisses an upward pressurre on publicc debt. Euro
opean social model mu
ust be impro
oved to
addresss the aging process in a way that produces
p
op
pportunities for Europea
ans and not threats
to their way of life..
Acknow
wledgement
This pap
per represents a partial dissem
mination of the postdoctoral reesearch project CNCSIS, HUMA
AN RESOURCESS type,
Macroecconomic modelling of the relattionships betweeen the asymmeetric shocks, co
onvergence of business
b
cycles and
a
mechaniisms of adjustm
ment in the conttext of Romania
a's adhesion to the euro area, No 78/03.08.2
2010, Project Manager
Marius-C
Corneliu Marinaş.
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, 06-21, 1-13.
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Dinu,
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Tiimisoara Journaal of Economics | eISSN: 184
44 -7139 | www.tje.uvt.ro
w
| Year 2012 | Volume 5 | Issue 17 | Pages: 33–4
46