Contemporary Processes in Amazonia &
Implications for the Future
Michael Keller
1) International Institute of Tropical Forestry,
United States Department of Agriculture
2) University of New Hampshire
3) CENA, Universidade de São Paulo
Deforestation: Inevitable?
1
Deforestation: Inevitable?
~10,000 km2 y-1
Source:Williams et al. 1983
Deforestation: Brazilian Amazon (km2 y-1)
Source: INPE, PRODES
2
Amazonia
Source: Dinerstein et al. 1995
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History: Brazilian Amazon
• Brasilia founded in 1960
– Belem-Brasilia Highway
• Military Dictatorship
– Trans-Amazon Highway
– BR-364 to Rondonia
• Democracy
– Plano Real
• Globalization
Actors: Participation is not limited
to one activity.
•
•
•
•
•
Road Builders
Loggers
Colonist Farmers
Cattle Ranchers
Industrial Farmers
4
1957 settlements from: Instituto Brasileiro de Geografia e Estatística (IBGE). 1957. Grande Região Norte.
Edited by J. P. Ferreira. Vol. XIV, Enciclopédia dos Municípios Brasileiros. Rio de Janeiro: IBGE.
5
2000 PRODES DIGITAL
M
Courtesy of
Yosio Shimabokuro
Road Building
• A dynamic activity not dependent solely on
Federal or State governments
- 2 Photographs Removed Pending
Approval -
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Slide 11
MK7
From Yosio - LBA-ECO ST9
Michael Keller, 07/03/2007
Road Network
Figure Published by Asner et al. 2006
Data from IMAZON
Lessons from Road-building
• 90% of deforestation is concentrated
within100 km of major roads (Alves et al.
2002)
• Roads do not automatically lead to
extensive deforestation (e.g. BR-174
Manaus to Boa Vista and BR-319 Porto
Velho to Manaus)
• Government action is not required for road
building to occur
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What is wrong with this picture?
Prediction for 2020 by Laurance et al. 2001
Primary Forest
Shifting
Cultivation
Pasture
Secondary
Forest
Logged
Forest
Fire
Intensive
Agriculture
Degraded
Forest
8
Selective Logging
Photo: Michael Keller
Logging
• New spectral unmixing
approaches for
interpretation of satellite
images (Souza et al.
2005; Asner et al. 2005,
2006) provide data on the
extent of logging and
insights into the role of
logging in the expansion
of the frontier.
Asner et al. 2004
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12,000-20,000 km2 y-1 logging (1999-2003)
16,000-23,000 km2 y-1 deforestation
Asner et al. Science 2005
Condition and Fate of
Logged Forests?
Logging intensity (defined by
remotely sensed forest canopy
gap fraction) is high throughout
most of the study region. Areaintegrated gap fractions exceed
10% (high intensity) more than
75% of the time.
Asner et al. PNAS 2006
10
32% of logged forest is cleared after 4 years!
0.15
**
0.10
0.95
0.90
0.80
0.75
0.70
0.65
***
*
0.05
Logging
Intact forest
0.85
05
0.20
1.00
510
10
-1
5
15
-2
0
20
-2
5
25
-3
0
30
-3
5
35
-4
0
40
-4
5
45
-5
0
Proportion Deforested 4 Years Later
ns
Cumulative Proportion of Total Area
0.25
***
Logging
Intact forest
***
**
25-30
30-35
ns
*
*
40-45
45-50
0.00
0-5
5-10
10-15
15-20
20-25
35-40
Distance Class from Major Roads (5 km increments)
Asner et al. PNAS 2006
Small Holder Agriculture
Photo removed
pending approval
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Land Reform Settlements
Source: Barreto et al. 2006
Land Reform Settlements
Official settlements account for
~5% of Amazon land area and
15% of deforested area
Source: Barreto et al. 2006
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Extensive Cattle Pasture
Photo: Marie Gabrielle Piketty
Amazon Cattle Herd 1990-2003
Source: Arima et al. 2005
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Why is this cow worried?
Why is this cow worried?
1990
2003
Amazon Herd
27 million
64 million
Proportion of
Brazilian Herd
22%
33%
Beef
Consumption
(kg per capita)
26
28
14
Cattle pastures cover at least
2/3 of the deforested area
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Cattle pastures covers at least
2/3 of the deforested area
87% of the beef produced in the
Amazon is exported to other
regions of Brazil
Cattle pastures covers at least
2/3 of the deforested area
87% of the beef produced in the
Amazon is exported to other
regions of Brazil
The internal rate of return for
investment in Amazon cattle
raising operations including the
appreciation of land values is
34%. (Margulis 2004)
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Intensive Agriculture
Photo: Emê Andrade
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Fate of deforestation from 2001-04 from MODIS phenology
~20% of deforestation in Mato
Grosso led to direct conversion
of forest to cropland (2001-2004)
Morton et al., PNAS, 2006
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A Future with Biofuels?
Brazil
USA
Ethanol Produced 109 L y-1 (1)
15.9
14.8
Production L Etoh per ha (1)
5518
3741
Area Farmed for Ethanol (106 ha)
2.88
3.96
Production Cost $US per L Etoh (1)
0.21
0.27
Net Energy vs. Fossil Input (2)
10.2
1.4
(1) USDA Office of Chief Economist, 2006; (2) Goldemberg 2007
Conclusions (1):
•Road building has provoked
deforestation but rates vary widely
dependent upon the location of the roads
•Logging has functioned as a facilitator of
deforestation and forest management has
not been a long-term land use.
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Conclusions (2):
•The Amazon region of Brazil currently
offers attractive economic opportunities in
cattle raising and industrial agriculture.
•Expansion of these activities would
provoke deforestation.
That’s all folks!
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