The North African and the
Middle East Markets
C H Sandström
Uni4 Marketing
Uni4 Marketing AB
Owners:
SCA Timber AB 36%
Holmen Timber AB 36%
Södra Timber AB 18%
Martinsons Trä AB 10%
Our business:
Sales and deliveries of Swedish sawn timber to the markets
in the Middle East and North Africa
Turnover 2009(progn.): 900 MSEK
($ 125 million)
Shipped volume 2009: 520 000 m3
Oktober 2009
Uni4 Marketing AB
2
Uni4 Marketing AB
Organisation
MD
Deputy MD
Sales
Carl Henrik Sandström
Johan Hedin
Carl Henrik Sandström
Helena Hildebrand
Fredrik Maller
Jöran Ekberg
Economy/administration: Heidi Lind
Linda Falk
Therese Sörell
Ylva Wetterdahl
Oktober 2009
Uni4 Marketing AB
3
Contents
1. Present situation
2. Drivers
– Supply
– Demand
3. Conclusions
From 10 to 25 per cent of Swedish Export in Five Years
Source: Swedish Forest Industries
Federation
Source: Swedish Forest
Industries Federation
Swedish Exports of Softwood
January – December 2005
11%
January- August 2009
24%
Other Africa
5%
Middle East
3%
Japan
7%
Other Africa
10%
Egypt
3%
Other
0%
Egypt
10%
UK
23%
Middle East
4%
USA
6%
Other
Europe
15%
Denmark
11%
France
5% Germany Holland
7%
7%
Norway
8%
Japan
6%
USA
1%
Other Europé
9%
France
Germany
5%
9%
UK
24%
Demnark
8%
Norway
6%
Holland
8%
Source: Swedish Forest
Industries Federation
Swedish Exports of Redwood
January- August 2009
January-December 2005
43%
24%
Other Africa
2%
Tunisia
3%
Other Africa
11%
Morocco
7%
Egypt
Middle East 7%
5%
Japan
4%
USA
2%
UK
23%
Other
Europé
12%
France
3%
Denmark
13%
Spain
10%
Italy Norway
4%
6%
UK
18%
Algeria
5%
Denmark
8%
Egypt
21%
Other
Europé
15%
Middle East
5%
Norway
5%
Germany
5%
Japan
6%
Source: Swedish Forest
Industries Federation
Finnish Export of Softwood
January-December 2005
January- July 2009
22%
37%
Other Africa
8%
Egypt
8%
Middle East
6%
Other countries
4%
Other North
Africa
11%
Great
Britain
16%
Other
Europe
14%
Germany
7%
Netherlands
5%
Italy
4%
Denmark
4%
Great
Britain
14%
Egypt
18%
France
10%
Japan
14%
Other countries
3%
France
10%
Germany
6%
Middle East
8%
Japan
11%
USA
0%
Netherlands
4%
Italy
3%
Denmark
2%
Other Europe
10%
Source: Swedish Forest
Industries Federation
Finnish Export of Redwood
January- July 2009
January-December 2005
41%
56%
Tunisia
4%
Marocco
5%
Other countries
1%
Alger
9%
Great Britain
18%
Egypt
16%
MiddleaEast
7%
Tunisia
3%
Marocco
6%
Italy
5%
Denmark
7%
Japan
10%
Other
Europe
16%
France
2%
Alger
12%
Egypt
28%
Other countries
1%
Great Britain
16%
Italy
3%
Denmark
3%
France
2%
Other Europe
9%
Japan
10%
Other Asia
(Middela East)
7%
Source: Swedish Forest
Industries Federation
Supply Drivers
•
•
•
•
•
Availability of raw material
Utilization of production capacity
Finland
Russia
Sweden
Fall in Sawn Softwood Production in Northern Europe, milj. m3.
Source: Swedish Forest
Industries Federation
Low supply of logs to Finnish sawmills - log harvests and
imports on record low levels
Decreasing harvest level in Russia, milj. m3
Source: Swedish Forest
Industries Federation
Relatively stable harvest level in Sweden
Source: Swedish Forest
Industries Federation
Demand Drivers
1.
2.
3.
4.
Young and fast growing population
Increasing income from energy
Less influenced by the Financial crisis
Strong economy – GDP growth 4-7 per cent
1. Young and Fast Growing Population
75% of the increase in population in age class 25-64 year
million inhabitants
300
250
200
150
100
50
0
2005
0-24 year
25-30 year
2015
35-44 year
2025
45-64 year
2035
65+ year
Source: Swedish Forest
Industries Federation
Demand Drivers
1.
2.
3.
4.
Young and fast growing population
Increasing income from energy
Less influenced by the Financial crisis
Strong economy – GDP growth 4-7 per cent
2. Increasing Income from Energy
160
Dollars per Barrel
140
120
100
80
60
40
20
0
Source: EIA
Natural Oil Price (U.S) through 2008
Dollars per Thousand Cubic Feet
Crude Oil Price through October 2009
9
8
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
0
Source: EIA
Production of Oil Forecasted to Decrease
Are we at the peak of production?
Demand Drivers
1.
2.
3.
4.
Young and fast growing population
Increasing income from energy
Less influenced by the Financial crisis
Strong economy – GDP growth 4-7 per cent
Demand Drivers
1.
2.
3.
4.
Young and fast growing population
Increasing income from energy
Less influenced by the Financial crisis
Strong economy – GDP growth 4-7 per cent
Conclusions
- great opportunities
• Important growing market – no longer complementary
market
• Increasing quality and brand awareness
• Young population
• Oil economies
• Need of Housing
• Markets relatively easy to access and with relatively
cheap and efficient distribution
• Swedish industry takes over the lead in the redwood
segment in the region
• Long and patient presence in the market gives result
Thank You!