Inequality and Prices: Does China Benefit the Poor in America?*
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Abstract!
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1!
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I. Introduction
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II. Data Description
II. A. Overview
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II. B. Stylized Facts
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6!
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II.B.1. The Extent and Type of Chinese Exports to the US
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0WI+$'&!2$+=!"#%)(!'+!'#0!.7!%&!(II($0)'!%)!'#0!2%4K$0,!=+&'!+2!"#%)0&0!I$+,K3'&!($0!&'%>>!
3+)30)'$('0,!%)!>+O!K)%'!/(>K0!(),!>+O!3(I%'(>!%)'0)&%'1!M%)&.!8+'0!(>&+!#+O!'#0!(/0$(40!&#($0!+2!
"#%)(!%)3$0(&0,!&KM&'()'%(>>1!+/0$!'#%&!I0$%+,.!B+$0!%=I+$'()'>1!2+$!'#0!$0&K>'&!%)!'#0!2+>>+O%)4!
&03'%+),!?%4K$0!UQ!&#+O&!'#0!3#()40!%)!'#0!&#($0!+2!"#%)0&0!9WI+$'&!%)!'+'(>!.7!%=I+$'&!%)!0(3#!
M%).!*0'O00)!1991!(),!CEEV,!>+O!K)%'!/(>K0!M%)&!0WI0$%0)30,!'#0!#%4#0&'!4$+O'#.!\#%>0!'#0!
I(''0$)!+2!4$+O'#!%)!>+ORNK(>%'1!I$+,K3'&!%&!3>0($!%)!'#0!4$(I#,!%)!'#0!>(&'!1V!10($&!'#0!%)3$0(&0!%)!
"#%)0&0!4$+O'#!%&!)+'!&+!3>0($>1!3+)30)'$('0,!%)!>+O!3(I%'(>!%)'0)&%/0!M%)&.!!
!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
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-199V;,!2+$!0W(=I>0,!%,0)'%2%0,!3>(&&%2%3('%+)!0$$+$!(),!K),0$>1%)4!I$+,K3'!#0'0$+40)0%'1!(&!'O+!=(d+$!&+K$30&!+2!
K)%'!/(>K0!0$$+$!%)!()!%)R,0I'#!()(>1&%&!+2!0%4#'!I$+,K3'&.!L2!3+K$&0,!%,0)'%21%)4!I+'0)'%(>!#0'0$+40)0%'1!O%'#%)!
I$+,K3'!3('04+$%0&!%&!(!4+(>!+2!'#%&!&03'%+).!B+$0+/0$,!K)%'!/(>K0&!($0!P)+O)!'+!%)3$0(&0!O%'#!'$()&I+$'('%+)!3+&'&!
-^K==0>&!(),!7P%M(,!CEEU;.!X#%&!$0>('%+)&#%I!#(&!M00)!%)'0$I$0'0,!(&!3(I'K$%)4!Q>3#%()!(),!Q>>0)a&!-196U;!%,0(!
'#('!2%$=&!#(/0!()!%)30)'%/0!'+!&#%I!'#0%$!#%4#0&'!NK(>%'1!4++,&!'+!'#0%$!2K$'#0&'!3K&'+=0$&!O#0)!2(3%)4!I0$!K)%'!
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11
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+2!"#%)0&0!/($%0'%0&!%)!'#0!'+'(>!)K=M0$!+2!%=I+$'0,!/($%0'%0&!M1!'#0!.7!%)!0(3#!M%).!?+$!%)&'()30,!
%)!1991!"#%)(!+)!(/0$(40!0WI+$'0,!($+K),!c!,%220$0)'!^X7!4++,&!%)!0(3#!`i_!$('%+!(),!NK(>%'1!
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,$(=('%3!$%&0!%)!'#0!%=I+$'()30!+2!"#%)(!%)!'#0!0W'0)&%/0!=($4%)!+2!0(3#!M%).!X#0!I(''0$)!'#('!
0=0$40&!2$+=!2%4K$0!U*!&K440&'&!()!0/0)!=+$0!&P0O0,!M0#(/%+$!'#()!'#('!%)!UQ.!X#0!%)3$0(&0!%)!
'#0!)K=M0$!+2!"#%)0&0!/($%0'%0&!(&!(!&#($0!+2!'+'(>!/($%0'%0&!I0$!M%)!#(&!M00)!I($'%3K>($>1!#%4#!%)!
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II.B.2. Consumption Baskets by Income Group
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'+'(>!3+)&K=I'%+)!%&!#%4#0$!2+$!'#0!I++$!'#()!'#0!$%3#.!
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4$+KI&!M1!0W(=%)%)4!'#0!K)%'R/(>K0&!+2!'#0!I$+,K3'&!3+)&K=0,!%)!0(3#!=+,K>0!M1!0(3#!%)3+=0!
4$+KI.!Q!K&02K>!20('K$0!+2!'#0!Q"8%0>&0)!?++,!,('(!%&!'#('!%)!(,,%'%+)!'+!'#0!I$%30!(),!NK()'%'1!
+2!0(3#!.G"!3+)&K=0,!M1!,%220$0)'!%)3+=0!4$+KI&,!%'!I$+/%,0&!,0'(%>0,!%)2+$=('%+)!+)!'#0!&%e0!
+2!0(3#!.G".!X#%&!(>>+O&!K&!'+!3+=IK'0!K)%'!/(>K0&!2+$!0(3#!=+,K>0!f!&%e0!I(%$.!?+$!%)&'()30,!
O%'#%)!'#0!=+,K>0!gB%>Ph,!'#0$0!($0!.G"&!&+>,!K),0$!=()1!,%220$0)'!&%e0&!-0.4.,!16!+e,!3C!+e!(),!
6U!+e;.!X#0!>+O0&'!%)3+=0!4$+KI&!3+)&K=0!.G"&!O%'#%)!B%>P!f!16+e!'#('!($0!CV!I0$30)'!3#0(I0$!
'#()!'#+&0!3+)&K=0,!M1!'#0!#+K&0#+>,&!%)!'#0!#%4#0&'!,03%>0!+2!'#0!%)3+=0!,%&'$%MK'%+).!H)!
I($'%3K>($,!$%3#0$!#+K&0#+>,!3+)&K=0!(!=K3#!#%4#0$!2$(3'%+)!+2!+$4()%3!=%>P.!?%4K$0!V!$0I+$'&!'#0!
(/0$(40!K)%'!/(>K0!I(%,!M1!0(3#!%)3+=0!4$+KI!$0>('%/0!'+!'#0!=(W%=K=!K)%'!/(>K0!2+$!0(3#!
=+,K>0!f!&%e0!I(%$.!?+$=(>>1!'#%&!%=I>%0&!3+=IK'%)4!'#0!2+>>+O%)4!&'('%&'%3A!!
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I$+,K3'&!O%'#!K)%'!/(>K0&!'#('!($0!($+K),!CE!I0$30)'!&=(>>0$!'#()!'#+&0!%)!'#0!#%4#0&'!%)3+=0!
4$+KI&.!X#('!%&,!'#0!#%4#0&'!%)3+=0!4$+KI&!#(/0!(!$0>('%/0!K)%'!/(>K0!3>+&0!'+!1,!+$!3>+&0!'+!'#0!
=(W%=K=!K)%'!/(>K0!%)!0(3#!=+,K>0!f!&%e0!I(%$.!X#0!I++$,!%)&'0(,,!3+)&K=0!3#0(I0$!.G"&!%)!
0(3#!=+,K>0!f!&%e0!I(%$.!X#0!(/0$(40!K)%'!/(>K0!2+$!'#0!I++$!%&!FE!I0$30)'!'#('!+2!'#0!=(W%=K=!
K)%'!/(>K0!%)!'#0!I(%$.!!
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'#()!'#+&0!3+)&K=0,!M1!'#0!$%3#,!()!+M/%+K&!3$%'%NK0!+2!'#0!0/%,0)30!%&!'#('!'#0!I++$!=(1!dK&'!M0!
3+)&K=%)4!'#0!&(=0!.G"&!(&!'#0!$%3#!('!(!>+O0$!I$%30!-0.4.,!*$+,(!(),!\0%)&'0%)!-CEEF;!(),!
*$+,(!(),!^K$&'!-CEEF;;.!X+!&#+O!'#('!'#%&!%&!)+'!,$%/%)4!'#0!$0&K>'&!K),0$>1%)4!'#0!,%220$0)'!K)%'!
/(>K0&!3+)&K=0,!M1!%)3+=0!4$+KI!O0!$0I+$'!'#0!I$%30&!I(%,!M1!%)3+=0!4$+KI!2+$!'#0!.G"&!'#('!
($0!IK$3#(&0,!M1!(>>!%)3+=0!4$+KI&.!H)!I($'%3K>($,!'#0!,+''0,!>%)0!%)!2%4K$0!V!$0I+$'&!'#0!(/0$(40!
I$%30!I(%,!M1!,%220$0)'!%)3+=0!4$+KI&!$0>('%/0!'+!'#0!=(W%=K=!I$%30!+2!'#('!.G".!X#0!&>+I0!%&!
=K3#!2>(''0$!'#()!'#('!+2!'#0!&+>%,!>%)0,!&K440&'%)4!'#('!'#0!/(&'!=(d+$%'1!+2!'#0!,03>%)0!%)!K)%'!
/(>K0&!I(%,!M1!'#0!I++$!%&!%),%3('%/0!+2!>+O0$!NK(>%'1!I$+,K3'&!$('#0$!'#()!>+O0$!I$%30&!I(%,!2+$!
%,0)'%3(>!I$+,K3'&.!"+=M%)0,!O%'#!'#0!2(3'&!2+K),!%)!I$0/%+K&!&03'%+)&!-%.0.,!'#('!"#%)(!0WI+$'&!
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2+$!&+=0!$0&K>'&!+2!'#%&!I(I0$.!7%)30!'#0!I++$!3+)&K=0!>+O0$!NK(>%'1!I$+,K3'&,!'#0!%=I(3'!+2!'#0!
>($40$!(330&&!(),!>+O0$!I$%30&!+2!"#%)0&0!I$+,K3'&!O%>>!,%&I$+I+$'%+)('0>1!%)2>K0)30!'#0!I++$.!!
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3+)&K=0,!(3$+&&!%)3+=0!4$+KI&.!7%)30!'#0!)K=M0$!+2!#+K&0#+>,&!%)!0(3#!%)3+=0!4$+KI!,%220$&!
+/0$!'%=0!O0!3+=IK'0!'#0!$0>('%/0!)K=M0$!+2!.G"&!I0$!#+K&0#+>,!2+$!0(3#!%)3+=0!4$+KI!(&!
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-%.0.,!%)3+=0!>($40$!'#()!k1EE,EEE;.!?%4K$0!6!&#+O&!'#0!I0$30)'!3#()40!%)!'#0!$0>('%/0!)K=M0$!+2!
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%)3$0(&0&!%)!'#0!)K=M0$!+2!.G"&!'#01!IK$3#(&0!$0>('%/0!'+!'#0!$%3#0&'!#+K&0#+>,&.!!X#0&0!
#+K&0#+>,&!#(/0!+)!(/0$(40!&00)!()!%)3$0(&0!+2!1E!I0$30)'!+)!(/0$(40!%)!'#0!$0>('%/0!)K=M0$&!+2!
.G"&!'#01!IK$3#(&0.!Q&!O0!O%>>!&#+O!%)!'#0!3+=%)4!&03'%+)!'#%&!%&!(!20('K$0!+2!'#0!,('(!'#('!%&!
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3+)&K=I'%+)!,%220$&!=($P0,>1!(3$+&&!%)3+=0!4$+KI&.!H'!%&!O0>>RP)+O)!'#('!'#0!&#($0!+2!)+)R
,K$(M>0!3+)&K=I'%+)!#(&!2(>>0)!&KM&'()'%(>>1!+/0$!'%=0!(&!I0$R3(I%'(!3+)&K=I'%+)!$%&0&.!?%4K$0!
cQ!&#+O&!'#0!I(''0$)!%)!'#0!'%=0R&0$%0&!,('(!2+$!'#0!.7!M0'O00)!19C9!(),!CEE6!2$+=!8HGQ!
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'#0!193E&!(),!#(&!2(>>0)!'+!M0>+O!3E!I0$30)'!%)!CEE6.!X#0!,03>%)0!+2!'#0!&#($0!+2!)+)R,K$(M>0!
3+)&K=I'%+)!O0!+M&0$/0!%)!'#0!'%=0R&0$%0&!0/%,0)30!%&!'#0!=%$$+$!%=(40!+2!'#0!&#($0!+2!&0$/%30&!
-'$%()4>0!&1=M+>&;!%)!'#0!03+)+=1.!X#%&!%&!3+$$+M+$('0,!M1!'#0!2(3'!'#('!'#0!&#($0!+2!,K$(M>0!
4++,&!-'#0!+)>1!=%&&%)4!4$+KI,!W!&1=M+>&;,!#(&!M00)!0&&0)'%(>>1!2>('!+/0$!'#0!>(&'!FE!10($&.!
?%4K$0!c*!&#+O&!(!&%=%>($!M0#(/%+$!%)!'#0!3$+&&R&03'%+)!+2!#+K&0#+>,&!%)!'#0!.7!%)!CEEV!
K&%)4!,('(!2$+=!'#0!"0)&K&!"+)&K=0$!9WI0),%'K$0!7K$/01.!X#0!I++$0&'!#+K&0#+>,&!->0&&!'#()!
kV`!+2!%)3+=0;!#(/0!(!&#($0!+2!)+)R,K$(M>0&!%)!3+)&K=I'%+)!(&!#%4#!(&!UE!I0$30)',!O#%>0!'#0!
$%3#0&'!#+K&0#+>,&!%)!'#0!Q"8%0>&0)!#+K&0#+>,!&K$/01!-=+$0!'#()!k1EE`;!#(/0!&#($0&!+2!>0&&!
'#()!3E!I0$30)'.!X#%&!&#($I!,%220$0)30!%)!'#0!&#($0&!+2!)+)R,K$(M>0!3+)&K=I'%+)!(3$+&&!%)3+=0!
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!!
III. Calculating Inflation Rates by Income Groups
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%)0NK(>%'1.!\0!&#+O!'#('!%)3$0(&0,!'$(,0!O%'#!K)&P%>>0,!>(M+$!(MK),()'!3+K)'$%0&!>%P0!"#%)(!3()!
=(P0!K)&P%>>0,!O+$P0$&!%)!'#0!.7!M0''0$!+22.!X#0!$0(&+)!%&!'#('!O#%>0!'#0!0WI()&%+)!+2!'$(,0!O%'#!
>+O!O(40!3+K)'$%0&!'$%440$&!(!2(>>!%)!$0>('%/0!O(40&!2+$!'#0!K)&P%>>0,!%)!'#0!.7,!%'!(>&+!>0(,&!'+!(!
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11!
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K),0$>1%)4!'#0!$0I$0&0)'('%/0!(40)'!2$(=0O+$P.!?%$&',!O0!(>>+O!'#0!'1I0!+2!)+)R,K$(M>0!4++,&!
3+)&K=0,!M1!'#0!I++$!'+!,%220$!2$+=!'#+&0!3+)&K=0,!M1!'#0!$%3#.!703+),,!O0!(>>+O!'#0!&#($0!+2!
)+)R,K$(M>0!3+)&K=I'%+)!%)!'+'(>!3+)&K=I'%+)!'+!,%220$!(3$+&&!%)3+=0!4$+KI&.!?%)(>>1,!O0!(>>+O!
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IV. Main Results
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V.A Non-Durable Inflation Rates by Income Groups, 1994 – 2005
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4++,&.!H)!I($'%3K>($,!?%4K$0!c*!&K440&'&!(!,%220$0)30!+2!1E!I0$30)'(40!I+%)'&!%)!'#0!&#($0!'#('!)+)R,K$(M>0!4++,&!
'(P0!%)!'#0!3+)&K=I'%+)!M(&P0'!+2!$%3#!/0$&K&!I++$,!(),!?%4K$0!11!&#+O&!'#('!&0$/%30!%)2>('%+)!#(&!M00)!($+K),!1E!
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,%220$0)'%(>!+/0$!'#%&!I0$%+,!+2!($+K),!1!I0$30)'(40!I+%)'.!
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CEEV!I0$%+,!$%&0!'+!V.V!I0$30)'.!X#%&!&K440&'&!'#('!3+$$03'0,!=0(&K$0&!+2!%)0NK(>%'1!%=I>1!(>=+&'!
)+!3#()40!%)!%)0NK(>%'1!+/0$!'#%&!I0$%+,,!+$!(!$0,K3'%+)!%)!%)0NK(>%'1!+2!($+K),!V.V!I0$30)'!
$0>('%/0!'+!3+)/0)'%+)(>!%)0NK(>%'1!=0(&K$0&.!!
\0!($0!>02'!)0W'!'+!,%&3K&&!'#0!$+>0!+2!"#%)(!%)!0WI>(%)%)4!'#0!$0&K>'&!+2!X(M>0!c*.!?%4K$0!
1!&#+O&!'#0!,$(=('%3!%)3$0(&0!%)!'#0!&#($0!+2!"#%)0&0!4++,&!&%)30!199U,!=+/%)4!2$+=!6!'+!1c!
I0$30)'!+2!(>>!.7!%=I+$'&.!\0!K&0!'#0!&0=%R0>(&'%3%'%0&!+M'(%)0,!%)!X(M>0!U!'+!3(>3K>('0!'#0!
I+$'%+)!+2!'#0!%)2>('%+)!,%220$0)30&!(3$+&&!%)3+=0!4$+KI&!'#('!3()!M0!(33+K)'0,!2+$!M1!"#%)(.!
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"#%)0&0!0WI+$'&!M1!=+,K>0!'+!3(>3K>('0!'#0!,%$03'!%=I(3'!+2!'#0!$%&0!+2!"#%)(!+)!'#0!+/0$(>>!)+)R
,K$(M>0!I$%30!%),0W!(),!+)!%)2>('%+)!2(30,!M1!0(3#!%)3+=0!4$+KI&.!\#0)!O0!3+=IK'0!'#0!%=I(3'!
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,%220$0)30&!%)!O(40&!M0'O00)!&P%>>0,!(),!K)&P%>>0,!O+$P0$&.!!
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$('%+!'#('!(>>+O&!2+$!'#0!O0%4#'&!+)!3+)&K=I'%+)!+2!)+)R,K$(M>0&!(),!&0$/%30&!'+!/($1!(3$+&&!
%)3+=0!4$+KI&.!X#0!%=I(3'!'#('!"#%)0&0!0WI+$'&!#(/0!+)!'#0!%)2>('%+)!+2!)+)R,K$(M>0!4++,&!
$0,K30&!'#0!9E'#i1E'#!$('%+!M1!1.3!I0$30)'.!:0>(W%)4!'#0!(&&K=I'%+)!'#('!'#0!M(&P0'!3+)&K=0,!M1!
'#0!I++$!%&!'#0!&(=0!(&!'#('!+2!'#0!$%3#!-3+>K=)!C;!%=I>%0&!(>=+&'!()!(,,%'%+)(>!1.V!I0$30)'(40!
I+%)'!>+O0$!%)0NK(>%'1!$('%+.!X#0!$0(&+)&!2+$!'#%&!(,,%'%+)(>!02203'!%&!'#('!"#%)(!#(&!$0,K30,!'#0!
I$%30!+2!'#0!I++$a&!M(&P0'!$0>('%/0>1!=+$0!'#()!'#('!+2!'#0!$%3#!-&00!3+022%3%0)'&!+)!3+>K=)&!-C;!
(),!-V;!+2!X(M>0!V;.!?%)(>>1,!'#0!>(&'!3+>K=)!&#+O&!'#('!&%)30!'#0!%=I(3'!+2!"#%)(!#(&!M00)!>($40$!
+)!M%(&R(,dK&'0,!%)2>('%+)!=0(&K$0&!(),!>($40$!2+$!'#0!I++$!'#()!'#0!$%3#!-3+>K=)&!URc!%)!X(M>0!V;!
%)0NK(>%'1!=0(&K$0&!3+$$03'0,!2+$!'#0&0!02203'&!(,,!()+'#0$!E.1!I0$30)'(40!I+%)'&!'+!'#0!$0,K3'%+)!
%)!'#0!I++$a&!$0>('%/0!I$%30&.!!L/0$(>>,!O0!2%),!'#('!"#%)0&0!0WI+$'&!(>+)0!3()!#0>I!+22&0'!($+K),!
3E!I0$30)'!+2!'#0!$%&0!%)!3+)/0)'%+)(>>1!=0(&K$0,!%)0NK(>%'1!,+3K=0)'0,!&%)30!199U!->(&'!
3+>K=);.!!
25!
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I$%30&!(),!NK()'%'%0&!+2!4++,&!&+>,!%)!.7!$0'(%>!&'+$0&,!'#0!$0&'$%3'%+)!+2!'#0!,('(!M0%)4!+)>1!+)!
)+)R,K$(M>0!4++,&!%=I>%0&!'#('!O0!($0!%4)+$%)4!'O+!%=I+$'()'!40)0$(>!0NK%>%M$%K=!02203'&!+2!'#0!!
+2!'#0!"#%)0&0!'$(,0!+)!.7!I$%30&.!?%$&',!%)!'#0!=+,0>!%)!'#0!(II0),%W!O0!&#+O!'#('!()!0WI()&%+)!
%)!'#0!&0'!+2!4++,&!'#('!"#%)(!3()!I$+,K30!#(&!40)0$(>!0NK%>%M$%K=!02203'&!+)!'#0!I$%30&!+2!
&0$/%30&!-)+)R'$(,0,!4++,&;.!Q&!&0$/%30&!($0!=+$0!&P%>>0,!%)'0)&%/0,!()!0WI()&%+)!+2!'$(,0!O%'#!
"#%)(!$%&0&!'#0!O(40&!+2!'#0!&P%>>0,!$0>('%/0!'+!'#0!K)&P%>>0,!%)!'#0!.7.!X#%&!=%4#'!'0),!'+!
%)3$0(&0!'#0!I$%30!+2!&0$/%30&!%)!'#0!.7!$0>('%/0!'+!>0&&!&P%>>!%)'0)&%/0!&03'+$&.!H2!I($'!+2!'#0!$%&0!%)!
'#0!I$%30!+2!&0$/%30&!%&!,K0!'+!"#%)(,!'#%&!%=I>%0&!'#('!O0!($0!K),0$&'('%)4!'#0!$+>0!'#('!"#%)(!#(&!
+)!'#0!4(I!%)!%)2>('%+)!,%220$0)'%(>&!(3$+&&!%)3+=0!4$+KI&.!703+),,!0/0)!O%'#%)!)+)R,K$(M>0!
4++,&,!"#%)0&0!0WI+$'&!=%4#'!)+'!M0!0WI(),%)4!%)!&P%>>R%)'0)&%/0!&03'+$&!O#+&0!I$%30&!($0!$%&%)4!
2(&'0$!'#()!O%'#+K'!'#0!0WI()&%+)!+2!"#%)(.!H2!'#0&0!4++,&!($0!=+$0!#0(/%>1!3+)&K=0,!M1!'#0!
$%3#,!'#%&!O+K>,!'0),!'+!%)3$0(&0!'#0!$+>0!+2!"#%)(!%)!0WI>(%)%)4!'#0!%)2>('%+)!,%220$0)'%(>&.!!!
!
!!!
V. Conclusion
!
X#0!,0M('0!+)!'$(,0!(),!O(40&!%)!'#0!..7.!#(&!0)'%$0>1!2+3K&0,!+)!'#0!%=I(3'!'#('!'$(,0!O%'#!
,0/0>+I%)4!3+K)'$%0&!#(&!+)!'#0!O(40&!+2!'#0!K)&P%>>0,!%)!Q=0$%3(.!X#%&!,0M('0!#(&!+/0$>++P0,!
'#0!%=I(3'!'#('!'$(,0!#(&!+)!I$%30&!+2!'#0!4++,&!3+)&K=0,!M1!,%220$0)'!%)3+=0!4$+KI&.!H)!
I($'%3K>($,!&%)30!,0/0>+I%)4!3+K)'$%0&!'1I%3(>>1!I$+,K30!>+O!NK(>%'1!4++,&!'#('!($0!
,%&I$+I+$'%+)('0>1!3+)&K=0,!M1!'#0!I++$!%)!Q=0$%3(,!'#%&!%=I>%0&!'#('!%)0NK(>%'1!=0(&K$0&!'#('!
,+!)+'!3+$$03'!2+$!,%220$0)30&!%)!'#0!M(&P0'!+2!4++,&!3+)&K=0,!M1!$%3#!(),!I++$!)04>03'!'#%&!
gI$%30h!02203'!+2!'$(,0.!!
.&%)4!,0'(%>0,!#+K&0#+>,!3+)&K=I'%+)!,('(!M0'O00)!199U!(),!CEEV,!O0!2%),!'#('!'#%&!gI$%30!
02203'h!+22&0'&!(>=+&'!(>>!'#0!$%&0!%)!%)0NK(>%'1!=0(&K$0,!M1!+22%3%(>!&'('%&'%3&!+/0$!'#%&!I0$%+,.!H)!
I($'%3K>($,!'#%&!+22&0''%)4!02203'!3+=0&!2$+=!'#0!2(3'!'#('!)+)R,K$(M>0!%)2>('%+)!2(30,!M1!'#0!I++$!
O(&!&=(>>0$!'#()!'#('!+2!'#0!$%3#,!'#0!I++$!3+)&K=0!(!>($40$!&#($0!+2!)+)R,K$(M>0!4++,&!fO#+&0!
%)2>('%+)!#(&!M00)!&=(>>0$!'#()!2+$!&0$/%30&f,!(),!'#0!%)'$+,K3'%+)!+2!)0O!4++,&!#(/0!
,%&I$+I+$'%+)('0>1!M0)02%''0,!'#0!I++$!+/0$!'#%&!I0$%+,.!B+$0+/0$,!M1!=('3#%)4!,0'(%>0,!.7!'$(,0!
,('(!O%'#!3+)&K=I'%+)!I(''0$)&!+2!#+K&0#+>,&!+2!,%220$0)'!%)3+=0!4$+KI&!%)!'#0!.7,!O0!($4K0!
26!
!
'#('!'#0!$%&0!+2!"#%)0&0!'$(,0!#(&!#0>I0,!$0,K30!'#0!$0>('%/0!I$%30!%),0W!+2!'#0!I++$!M1!($+K),!E.3!
I0$30)'(40!I+%)'&!I0$!10($.!X#%&!02203'!(>+)0!3()!+22&0'!($+K),!(!'#%$,!+2!'#0!$%&0!%)!+22%3%(>!
%)0NK(>%'1!O0!#(/0!&00)!+/0$!'#%&!I0$%+,.!
!
References (Incomplete)
*(>,O%),!:+M0$'!9.!(),!"(%),!6>0)!6.,!g7#%2'&!%)!..7.!:0>('%/0!\(40&A!'#0!:+>0!+2!X$(,0,!
X03#)+>+41!(),!?(3'+$!9),+O=0)'&,h!8*9:!\+$P%)4!G(I0$!)+.!V93U,!199c.!
!
*0$)($,,!Q),$0O!*.!(),!<.!*$(,2+$,!<0)&0),!g9WI+$'0$&,!7P%>>!.I4$(,%)4!(),!'#0!\(40!
6(I,h!K:%.10/":L",1t+.10ti:10/"Fc:1:(ic#M"UC-199c;A3R3C.!
!
*#(4O('%,!<(4,%&#!(),!B($/%)!^.!`+&'0$&,!0,&.,!N.05+"015"H0O+#P"B+&+/i1O"H0O+#"8:?1Q"
\(&#%)4'+),!@.".A!Q=0$%3()!9)'0$I$%&0!H)&'%'K'0,!199U.!
!
*+&P%),!B%3#(0>,!9>>0)!@K>M0$40$,!:+M0$'!6+$,+),!p/%!6$%>>%3#0&,!(),!@(>0!<+$40)&+),!gX+O($,!
(!B+$0!Q33K$('0!B0(&K$0!+2!'#0!"+&'!+2!_%/%)4,h!?%)(>!:0I+$'!'+!'#0!70)('0!?%)()30!"+==%''00,!
@030=M0$!U,!1996.!!
*$+,(,!"#$%&'%()!(),!@(/%,!9.!\0%)&'0%),!go($%0'1!6$+O'#!(),!\+$>,!\0>2($0”, A(+.ic01"
Fc:1:(ic"R+&i+?,!o+>.!9U,!8+.!C,!B(1!CEEU"
*$+,(,!"#$%&'%(),!@(/%,!9.!\0%)&'0%),!g6>+M(>%e('%+)!(),!'#0!6(%)&!2$+=!o($%0'1h,!D%0.t+./<"
K:%.10/":L"Fc:1:(ic#,!o+>.!1C1,!H&&K0!C!R!B(1!CEE6.!
!
*$+,(,!"#$%&'%()!(),!@(/%,!9.!\0%)&'0%)!-CEEc(;!gG$+,K3'!"$0('%+)!(),!@0&'$K3'%+)A!9/%,0)30!
(),!G$%30!H=I>%3('%+)&,h!8*9:!\+$P%)4!G(I0$!13EU1,!QI$%>!CEEc.!
!
*$+,(,!".!(),!@.!\0%)&'0%),!gG$%30&,!G+/0$'1!(),!H)0NK(>%'1h,!2+$'#3+=%)4!Q9H!\0>>RM0%)4!
70$%0&!B+)+4$(I#,!<()K($1!CEEF.!!
*K$0(K!+2!_(M+$!7'('%&'%3&,!^(),M++P!+2!B0'#+,&,!"#(I'0$!1cA!X#0!"+)&K=0$!G$%30!H),0W,!199c.!
*K$0(K!+2!_(M+$!7'('%&'%3&,!^(),M++P!+2!B0'#+,&,!"#(I'0$!16A!"+)&K=0$!9WI0),%'K$0&!(),!
H)3+=0,!#''IAii&'('&.M>&.4+/i#+=,!199c.!
"(40,!:.,!X.!6($)0$,!(),!<(/%0$!:K%eR"(&'%>>+,!g"+)&'$K3'%)4!^+K&0#+>,R7I03%2%3!"+)&K=0$!G$%30!
H),0W0&A!Q)!Q)(>1&%&!+2!@%220$0)'!X03#)%NK0&!(),!B0'#+,&,h!*_7!\+$P%)4!G(I0$!8K=M0$!3VU,!
B($3#!CEEC.!
?00)&'$(,!:+M0$'!".,!gH)'04$('%+)!(),!@%&%)'04$('%+)!%)!'#0!6>+M(>!93+)+=1,h!K:%.10/":L"
Fc:1:(ic"C+.#4+cti&+#M"1C-199F;A31RVE.!
!
27!
!
?00)&'$(,!:+M0$'!".!(),!6+$,+)!^.!^()&+),!gG$+,K3'%/%'1!B0(&K$0=0)'!(),!'#0!H=I(3'!+2!X$(,0!
(),!X03#)+>+41!+)!\(40&A!9&'%=('0&!2+$!'#0!..7.,!19cCR199E,h!D%0.t+./<"K:%.10/":L"
Fc:1:(ic#,!QK4K&'!,!11U-1999;A9EcR9UE.!
!
?00)&'$(,!:+M0$'!".!(),!6+$,+)!^.!^()&+),!gq6>+M(>!G$+,K3'%+)!(),!H)0NK(>%'1A!Q!7K$/01!+2!
X$(,0!(),!\(40&,q!%)!<(=0&!^($$%4(),!0,.,!S015T::U":L",1t+.10ti:10/"Fc:1:(ic#,!*(&%>!
*>(3PO0>>,!CEE3.!
!
?$00=(),!:%3#($,!*.,!gQ$0!r+K$!\(40&!70'!%)!*0%d%)4sh!K:%.10/":L"Fc:1:(ic"C+.#4+cti&+#M"
9-199V;A1VR3C.!
!
6($)0$,!X#0&%(,!@(/%,!<+#)&+),!(),!B($1!`+P+&P%,!gQ)!9WI0$%=0)'(>!"+)&K=0$!G$%30!H),0W!2+$!
'#0!G++$,h!6:1t!/<"B0T:."R+&i+?,!70I'0=M0$,!3CfUC,!1996.!
6+>,%),!".!(),!_.!`('e,!g_+)4!:K)!"#()40&!%)!'#0!.7!\(40&!7'$K3'K$0A!8($$+O%)4,!\%,0)%)4!
(),!G+>($%e%)4h!8*9:!O+$P%)4!I(I0$!13V6F,!70I'0=M0$!CEEc.!!
!
^+M%d),!*.!(),!@.!_(4(P+&,!qH)2>('%+)!H)0NK(>%'1!%)!'#0!.)%'0,!7'('0&q!R+&i+?":L",1c:(+"015"
H+0/t!,!@03.!CEEV!
!`$K4=(),!G(K>,!g6$+O%)4!\+$>,!X$(,0A!"(K&0&!(),!"+)&0NK0)30&,h!B.::Ui1O"C04+.":1"
Fc:1:(ic"Acti&it<M"1-199V;A3CcR36C.!
!
_0M+O,!@(/%,!(),!<0$0=1!:K,,,!gB0(&K$0=0)'!9$$+$!%)!'#0!"+)&K=0$!G$%30!H),0WA!\#0$0!@+!
\0!7'(),sh!K:%.10/":L"Fc:1:(ic"Bit+.0t%.+,!U1,!1V9fCE1,!CEE3.!
!
_0(=0$,!9,O($,!9.,!gH)!70($3#!+2!7'+>I0$R7(=K0>&+)!_%)P(40&!M0'O00)!H)'0$)('%+)(>!X$(,0!(),!
_+O0$!\(40&,h!%)!7K&()!B.!"+>>%)&,!0,.,!,(4:.t#M"FW4:.t#M"015"t!+"A(+.ic01"H:.U+.,!
\(&#%)4'+),!@.".A!*$++P%)4&!H)&'%'K'%+)!G$0&&,!199F,!1U1RCE3.!
!
G+>>(P,!:+M0$',!g6$+KI!"+&'!+2!_%/%)4!H),0W0&,h!Q=0$%3()!93+)+=%3!:0/%0OA!G(I0$&!(),!
G$+300,%)4&,!cE,!Cc3fF,!19FE.!!
G$(%&,!7.!<.!-19V9;,!g\#+&0!"+&'!+2!_%/%)4sh!:0/%0O!+2!93+)+=%3!7'K,%0&,!C6,!1C6f3U!
7>(K4#'0$,!B(''#0O!<.!g\#('!Q$0!'#0!:0&K>'&!+2!G$+,K3'RG$%30!7'K,%0&!(),!\#('!"()!\0!_0($)!
2$+=!X#0%$!@%220$0)30&sh!%)!:+M0$'!".!?00)&'$(,!0,.,!N!+"FLL+ct#":L",1t+.10ti:10/"N.05+":1"
H0O+#,!"#%3(4+A!.)%/0$&%'1!+2!"#%3(4+!G$0&&,!CEEE(,!1C9R16V.!
!
7>(K4#'0$,!B(''#0O!<.,!gG$+,K3'%+)!X$()&20$!O%'#%)!BK>'%)('%+)(>!9)'0$I$%&0&!(),!Q=0$%3()!
\(40&,h!K:%.10/":L",1t+.10ti:10/"Fc:1:(ic#,!VE-CEEEM;AUU9RUcC.!
!
28!
!
!
!
29!
!
!
Table!3!
!
!
!
!
30!
!
!
!
Table!4!
!
!
!
!
Table!5!
!
!
!
!
!
!
31!
!
!
Table!6!
!
!
Table!7A!
!
!
!
!
!
!
!
!
32!
!
Table!7B!
!
!
!
!
!
Table!8!
!
!
!
!
!
!
!
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Expenditure Shares and Per Capita Consumption in the US, 1929 - 2006
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Log(Per-Capita Consumption)
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Expenditure Shares and Household Income, 2005
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Source: Census Consumer Expenditure Survey 2005
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46!
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Figure!A1!
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Figure!A2!
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47!
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Appendix A: Regressions with Changes in World Export Shares
Appendix!Table!4A!
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Appendix!Table!4B!
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48!
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