How toy trends affect
your business
Marek Jankowski
How toy trends affect your business
Why did you enter the toy business? We all do it for the potential benefits. And your reasons probably
fell into one or more of three categories. You want to:
•
make the world better
•
make your customers happier
•
make yourself richer
The Spielwarenmesse® TrendCommittee selected three trends for 2015: Little Scientists, Beyond
Reality and Express Yourself. You will soon learn what benefits these trends have to offer you, your
customers and the rest of the world. But first, let us talk about human nature.
Make the world better
Professor Brian Wansink from Cornell University conducted an experiment involving 158 moviegoers
in Philadelphia. Each person coming to the cinema was given free popcorn and a beverage. But it
was not the usual popcorn. Half of it was fresh, the other half prepared 14 days earlier. It tasted like
styrofoam. Some people got a medium bucket, the others a large one, as big as a Little Tikes
playhouse. In fact both buckets were too big to eat the entire contents. The question was: would
people with bigger containers eat more than those with smaller ones?
Researchers weighed the popcorn before the experiment, so they could measure exactly how much
the audience had eaten. They found out that – in both groups – people with bigger buckets ate more
than those with the smaller ones. Whether the popcorn is fresh or like styrofoam, the more food you
have in front of you, the more you eat. Always. So if you want to eat less, it does not always require
strong willpower. There is a much easier way; just use smaller plates.
This study tells us something important about human nature. The way we act is often an outcome of
external circumstances. The environment shapes our behaviour. Can you see how important this is
for the toy industry? If adults’ decisions depend so much on the things that surround them, what can
you expect from kids?
Toys are such an important part of a child's world. Kids’ imagination brings them to life. Boys can
spend hours playing with action figures. Girls will not sleep without their favourite teddy bear. That
is why you should be very cautious about your product decisions. These decisions can have great
impact on children and sometimes also other people.
Make your consumers happier
In 2000, psychologists Sheena Iyengar from Columbia University and Mark Lepper from Stanford,
published an extremely interesting study. On one day, shoppers in an upscale grocery store saw a
display table with 24 varieties of premium quality jam. They could taste it and buy it. On another day,
shoppers saw a similar table, except that there were only six varieties of jam. The large display
attracted more interest than the small one. But when the time came to purchase, people who saw
the small display were ten times more likely to buy than those who saw the large one. Let me say it
once again: the customers were ten times more likely to buy when they had less options!
Buyers love to have a choice. When you do not have choice, you are angry. But as Iyengar and Lepper
proved, and other scientists confirmed, if you have too many options, you are less likely to make a
decision. It is called decision paralysis. Do you know where it comes from?
•
First, it is more work for you to do. You have to absorb and compare more data. It is a difficult
task for your brain and – as they say – people are inherently lazy.
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Second, it is more probable you could make a bad choice. Imagine you are going to spend your
holidays abroad. If you have only two countries on your list, it is easy to pick the better one. If
you have 25, it becomes much harder.
•
Finally, the more options you have, the more likely you will experience some regrets. You will
keep thinking about all the possibilities you have rejected.
What does a typical toy store look like? It is divided into numerous product sections: dolls, youth
electronics, outdoor & sports, arts & crafts etc. And there are dozens of products in each section.
Imagine a woman named Jane. She is going to visit her friends, a couple with a 6 year old son, Jason.
Jane wants to be nice and buy a gift for the boy. She enters the toy store and is overwhelmed by the
wide assortment of toys. She asks a shop assistant for recommendations but it does not help at all.
Jane is confused with such a wide choice: should she buy a building set? Action figure? Board game?
Activity toy? What will Jason like? So the woman panics, leaves and decides to buy something easier:
a box of chocolates. “What a relief! I should have done it earlier”, she thinks. “What tempted me to
go to the toy store? I will never make this mistake again”, she says to herself.
If the consumer is a parent who knows their son likes Angry Birds – it is much easier. If a kid tells them
exactly that he wants, a BMW X5 electric car in black, they are lucky (assuming they have enough
money). But moms and dads are not the only buyers! So ask yourself: how much money could you
lose because it is too hard for people like Jane to choose a toy for a kid like Jason?
And now imagine Caroline. She has the same task as Jane: to find a gift for a little boy. Caroline
enters the store and notices a nice display showing current trends: Little Scientists, Beyond Reality
and Express Yourself. “Wow, I wish they had this when I was a kid”, she thinks. The decision-making
process is easier and more engaging. You can see much more than just colourful boxes. You can
instantly imagine the child playing in a particular way. You are more convinced that you have made
a good choice. You are happy.
Make yourself richer
As an editor in chief of a trade magazine, I often talk to shop owners and managers about their
businesses. Once I went to a nice toy store in Warsaw. I spent a while watching the customers. Some
of them were just browsing the products on the shelves, even looking like they were searching for
something in particular. Then they left! “Do you know what they were searching for?”, I asked the
manager. He shrugged and replied: “They do not know themselves. Their kids have it all”.
It is something of a problem nowadays; Women choose to have children later than they used to,
when their financial situation is more stable. They often only have one child, meaning he or she gets
all the attention and all the gifts. Parents tend to think “It is enough! My little one does not need
more toys. He already has a gazillion building blocks and his car collection is comparable to Jay
Leno’s”. Can you see your opportunity here?
Trends can help you reach those parents and offer them something they are not expecting. It is more
than just toys, it is a way of life.
•
Little Scientists is an endless stream of ideas helping children discover the universe.
•
Beyond Reality allows kids to play in completely new ways, thanks to modern technologies.
•
Express Yourself lets them enjoy unlimited creativity.
And there are more. If you are open-minded, these trends can inspire you to think about business
possibilities you have never considered before.
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Little Scientists
Since 1997, Intel Corporation has sponsored ISEF
– International Science and Engineering Fair. It is
the world’s largest science competition for
teenagers. More than 1,700 high school students
from over 70 countries have a chance to
showcase their independent research and
compete for more than 5 million dollars in prizes.
We all know kids are incredibly creative. But this
contest is not about ideas, it is about finding
scientifically-based solutions to real problems.
“The number of children and teens killed by
firearms is more than 2.5 times the number of
military personnel killed in Iraq, Vietnam and
Afghanistan wars combined”, says Kai Kloepfer,
who won the Intel ISEF Grand Award in 2013, at the
age of 16. He was trying to create a lock that would
prevent unauthorized users from pulling the trigger. And
he found a solution: the Biometric Electromechanical Firearm
Safety, a device that identifies the fingerprints of a user and
either grants or denies access to operation.
Kai Kloepfer says he has always been an engineer. It started from Lego Robotics camps. By the time
he was in 4th grade, he was working on basic circuits on a breadboard. Kids like this boy can change
the world, no doubt about it. Just give them a chance to develop their interests, there is no better
way to do that than giving them the right toys.
Maybe this kid is a genius, you may think, but most kids do not want to learn maths. They say it is
boring. They hate it. And you are right. In fact, it is not only maths, it is a whole group of disciplines
known as STEM, which stands for Science, Technology, Engineering and Mathematics. But here is a
funny thing, in some countries people (not only children) hate STEM, in others they love it. In 2011
the percentage of STEM university degrees in China was 41, while in the United States – only 13.
And it was noticed years earlier that Asian children outperform American children in – inter alia –
maths skills.
In 1993 researchers visited 10 schools in Japan, 10 in Taiwan and 20 in the United States to find a
reason. They observed math teachers in each school and saw some significant differences. A Japanese
teacher will say to her pupils: “You had 100 yen, but you bought a notebook for 70 yen. How much
money do you have left?”. Her Taiwanese peer says: “There are three kids playing ball. Two more
come later, and then one more. How many are playing now?”. This way the teachers make the
abstract terms – addition and subtraction – tangible. These examples were concrete and familiar. You
may think it is common practice, but in fact it is not. The study showed that it occurs twice as much
in Asia as in the United States.
It is not easy to change education systems, it takes years. But you can do something maybe even
more powerful. You can give kids the strength to love science despite some teachers make it boring
as hell. Toys are not abstract. They are real objects. They can help kids understand science and enjoy
it. By offering kids the right toys, you also offer them a chance for a brighter future. One million more
STEM professionals is needed only in the UK by 2020.
Little Scientists is the trend embracing a specific segment of educational toys – and education has
boosted toy sales for more than a decade. It is the first reason for your company to be interested in
this topic.
The second reason is the possible partnerships with technology companies. They are highly interested
in developing STEM skills among kids. The more the children are interested in STEM today, the easier
it will be for these companies to hire great engineers in the future. If Intel gives 5 million dollars to a
teenagers contest, perhaps they would be interested in engaging younger science geeks, too.
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The impact of STEM on the economy is so enormous that it is now on the radar of politicians. In
2009, President Barack Obama launched the Educate to Innovate initiative. Its goal is simple: make
American students fall in love with STEM. And it is already happening – a great example is Public
School 188 in Coney Island, New York. It is not a school that you would like your kids to attend. Nine
out of ten students live below the poverty line. A quarter of them have special needs. Fortunately,
they also have great teachers.
A few years ago they started a STEM program and about half of the 550 students participate in it.
They build LEGO programmable robots, launch air-powered projectiles during rocketry classes and
use science to solve criminal cases. Kids love it. Wouldn't you agree it is a fantastic way to spend
public funds? And it does not only happen in the US. Europe also follows this way.
Beyond Reality
It is 1899. Two aviation enthusiasts from Dayton,
Ohio – 28 year old Orville Wright and his older
brother Wilbur – experiment with kites, trying
to figure out how to improve them. Then they
build a series of gliders, developing the control
systems. It takes a few years to find a formula
that seems to work. They add an engine to their
aircraft in 1903 and on December 17 make the
first flight. Their curious air machine stays in the
air for 59 seconds. I am sure you have heard
this story before. But there is one detail you
have probably missed.
When Orville and Wilbur were kids, their father
Milton Wright gave them a toy. Today we would
call it a rubber band-powered helicopter. The boys
played so hard with it that they eventually destroyed
it. Then they began making their own copies. It was
their first recorded experience with aviation. When the
Wrights made their first successful flight, they addressed a
telegram to their father Milton. He had the honor to inform the
press. It was his sons' way of saying “thank you”.
A simple toy was the spark that ignited the fire. Thanks to this simple toy, two little boys developed
their passion and eventually became aviation pioneers. They achieved a goal considered by many as
something beyond reality.
A rubber band-powered helicopter might have inspired people in the 19th century. Today kids
discover new possibilities using hi-tech gadgets. If they start from toys controlled by gestures and 3D
printers – who knows how far they will go?
Some say that new technologies can make us stupid and lazy. It is easy to find arguments that
support this. You probably feel scared when your GPS crashes. And you can not imagine how anyone
could watch TV without a remote control. But there is another side of the coin. Modern technologies
help us get our work done faster and thus enjoy more time with family and friends. They allow
people with disabilities to overcome physical limitations. And thanks to modern technologies, an 8
year old boy from Poland saved his grandma’s life.
Mathew was at home with his brother, when their grandmother fainted. The boy called the 112
emergency number, explained what happend and helped the ambulance crew to get there. He
learned about the 112 number in kindergarten. But would he know how to make a phone call if his
parents forbid him to play games on a mobile phone? It’s hard to believe.
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You might think: mobile phones are not a new technology. Not anymore. They are everywhere
today. And it only shows how fast the world is changing. Ten years ago few kids were allowed to
touch their parents’ Nokias and Sony Ericssons. Some parents still stick to this rule. How do we deal
with them? Well, we should understand that technology is neither good nor bad in itself. A
screwdriver can be used to put together a bicycle for a child or to build a bomb. So if you come up
with technological solutions for motivating kids to do good things, you will certainly make your
customers happier.
The Beyond Reality trend gives toy companies new possibilities because in many cases it involves
digital content. Whether you offer upgrades, extensions or designs for 3D printing, you can upsell
endlessly. And globally. One of the best examples is Finnish mobile game developer Supercell. For
2013, they reported revenue of nearly 900 million dollars. That is enough money to buy a new
Toyota Aygo for each of the Spielwarenmesse® visitors. In 2013, Supercell was offering only two
games: Clash of Clans and Hay Day - and both of them were free! Where did the money come from?
It’s the magical effect of so-called “in-app purchases”. You can download the game and begin
playing for free, but to move forward you need to open your wallet.
Express Yourself
Once I went to a family restaurant. It was almost
fully booked. There were several dozen children
aged from 2 to about 8 years old. Some of them
were playing, but they only had one kind of toy:
a tablet.
There are many great kids apps for iPad and
similar devices. They teach colors and shapes.
Numbers and letters. Counting, reading and
writing. But there is also one catch. Did you
know that Steve Jobs did not let his kids use
iPads? The co-founder of Apple highly
appreciated creativity. And he knew that despite
the many advantages, tablets have nothing to do
with it.
The iPad is a great device. However, it is actually very
limited. All it offers are 2–dimensional images on a 9.7–
inch screen. You can see pictures and hear sound effects,
but you can not smell or taste anything. The only thing you
can touch is the glass screen. You can create whatever you want,
provided that your imagination is no greater than the developers. If
Salvador Dali had played only with an iPad, he would never have found out that blue mixed with
yellow formed green!
Express Yourself is all about creativity. We still need people with brave ideas, like Steve Jobs. We also
need toys that encourage kids to think out-of-the-box, push the boundaries of imagination. This way
they can make the world better.
There are so many limits that we adults put on ourselves. Often they are reasonable – you should not
drive after drinking – but sometimes they are not. And kids are great at questioning rules. Let me
give you an example.
At the age of 6, Maggie Cole loved to play with knights and dragons. She was confused when her
schoolmates were suggesting some toys were for girls and some for boys. But mom explained that
her friends were wrong – if the toy looks fun to play with then anybody can play with it.
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One year later, Maggie replaced knights and dragons with superheroes. She became a fan of
Superman, Spider-Man, Batman and The Flash. A few days before Christmas Eve, she went shopping
with her mom to Tesco. When she noticed a superhero alarm clock with a sign saying “Fun gifts for
boys”, she looked really angry. Her mom took a photo and posted it on Twitter. It went viral and it
had more than 10 thousand retweets. Eventually, Tesco decided to remove this sign from all stores.
Journalists asked Maggie’s mom if they could run the story and she agreed. She said: “I wanted to
show Maggie that it is worth standing up for what you believe in”.
This is what Express Yourself means for parents. They know it is more than drawing and painting. It
is a way of building their child’s personality. It makes your customers happier to see their kids speaking
with their own voice.
Express Yourself is also a creativity test for your business. And some pass the test with great results.
Here is the story of Sandra Lin, the founder and CEO of Kiwi Crate.
In 2011, Sandra Lin was looking for arts and crafts activities that she could do with her two kids. She
also started to share these activities with other busy parents. At these playdates, the kids had fun and
the parents appreciated having all of the materials and instructions provided. They suggested that
she should start selling it.
Sandra Lin has a great business background. She is a Harvard MBA, worked for eBay and Procter &
Gamble. Her research showed her that art & crafts was a 30 billion dollar a year industry. So she
decided to start Kiwi Crate – a startup that delivers monthly creativity sets to parents' doorsteps. Each
month, subscribers receive a small box filled with simple projects, art materials and lesson plans.
A subscription model is great when you deal with creative sets. These customers are delighted if you
keep providing them with new ideas – and that kind of loyalty is priceless for any business.
As you can see, each of the 3 trends: Little Scientists, Beyond Reality and Express Yourself, can bring
real benefits for you, your customers and even the world. If you want this to happen, make the first
step. Choose a few products from your assortment, reflecting one of these trends, and find a way to
communicate their advantages. I am not talking about product features – the question is: how can
these toys influence kids’ and parents’ lives?
Knowing the trends helps in business development and gives you hints for the future. But, as
Abraham Lincoln said, “the best way to predict your future is to create it”.
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Responsible for content: Marek Jankowski
Marek Jankowski formed his own company in 2004 – the first in Poland
center of child development, where teachers have been conducting
educational classes for infants and pre-kindergarten children. In 2008
he introduced to the market "Branza Dziecieca", which now is the
biggest opinion-forming magazine in the toys and kids articles industry
in Poland. In 2011 (and again in 2013) Marek Jankowski was chosen to
be a member of the management board of the Polish Toy Association.
He is the author of two books: "Little Big Company" (2008) and “The
Traps of Small Business” (2011). Since 2013 he is a member of the
TrendCommittee of Spielwarenmesse®.
Publisher RedPaper:
Spielwarenmesse eG
Münchener Str. 330
90471 Nürnberg, Germany
Tel. +49 (0) 911/9 98 13-0
Fax +49 (0) 911/86 96 60
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