Iraq
Weekly Security Report
September 1, 2015
Security Analysis
August 25 - 31, 2015
Executive Summary
• Abadi administration pledges legal review for public sector assets and ease of security restrictions for civilians in the
capital, amid a week of protracted stalemate in the Iraqi Security Forces’ (ISF) northern and western conflict zones.
• A reduction in air strikes was recorded by Turkish fighter jets across the northern Kurdistan Regional Government
(KRG) frontier over the reporting period, although as before, an elevated risk of armed conflict remains in place
for the Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK)-operational areas of Amadiya, Zakhu and the Qandil mountains.
• Intensity of conflict falls marginally across Ramadi’s central districts, as ISF units secure routes east of Fallujah.
National Overview
Abadi administration pledges legal review for public sector assets and ease of security restrictions for
civilians in the capital, amid a week of protracted stalemate in the ISF’s northern and western conflict
zones. Despite an easing of political tensions in the south this week following the promised resignation of the
governors of Muthanna and Qadisiya, the protest
movement in the capital has shown minimal signs of
DOHUK
abating, with mass demonstrations in Karada, Rusafa
and Madain contributing to a string of pledged conERBIL
NINEVEH
cessions from the Federal authorities. Responding to
SULAIMANIYA
the complaints of local residents and groups critical of
KIRKUK
Baghdad’s longstanding military segregation, on Friday
Prime Minister Abadi ordered the security forces to
SALAHUDDIN
ease access to Baghdad’s Green Zone and key highDIYALA
ways, alongside a promise to establish an official legal
BAGHDAD
committee to investigate the use and ownership of
ANBAR
federal property which detractors allege has increasWASIT
KARBALA BABIL
ingly become appropriated by powerful individuals
within the state. While increased traffic flow into the
QADISIYA
MAYSAN
Green Zone is unlikely to directly result in an increased
NAJAF
threat to foreign facilities based in the secure area,
DHI QAR
Over 30 Incidents
given the continued presence of an effective security
Over 10 Incidents
BASRA
MUTHANNA
presence, wider offers of the government to advance
Over Five Incidents
the removal of blast walls and other defensive infraAt Least One Incident
structure may nonetheless undermine the wider
No Incidents
security objectives of the administration, namely the
Reported Violent Incidents August 25 - 31, 2015
reduction in high profile sectarian bombings.
Northern Region
A reduction in air strikes was
recorded by Turkish fighter jets
across the northern KRG frontier over the reporting period,
although as before, an elevated risk of armed
conflict remains in place for the PKK-operational
areas of Amadiya, Zakhu and the Qandil mountains. While Baiji city remained contested following
the pattern of the last four months, local sources
Security Analysis
August 25 - 31, 2015
indicated that a shift in ISIS deployment patterns
over the past seven days, primarily within the southern areas of Salahuddin, as ISF clearance operations
encountered a number of ISIS raids and stand-off
attacks in the Samarra area. The intensity of these
clashes is understood to have developed significantly
from August 26 onwards, culminating in clashes on
Friday, August 28 when Iraqi army teams claimed
to have 30 insurgents along with a number of gun
trucks on the western side of the Tigris following
similar operations the day before. With Baiji refinery
still contested, and key oilfields including Ajil either
under ISIS control or at risk of further attacks, security risks for energy infrastructure in the north-central
provinces remain heightened. Most recently a suicide
bomber was reported to have killed a police officer
and an employee of the Kirkuk Oil Company (KOC)
(officially still designated as the Northern Oil company by Federal authorities) seven days after a KOC
facility 10 kilometers south-west of Kirkuk city was
struck by rocket fire on August 22.
Central Region
Intensity of conflict falls marginally across Ramadi’s central
districts, as ISF units secure
routes east of Fallujah. With the
villages of Subhayat and Abadi
now both under the control of police brigades again
this month (following the covert seizure of these
areas by ISIS cells operating from Fallujah district
two weeks earlier) pro-government forces are now
once again close to a full blockade of Karma where
militants continue to resist ongoing ISF offensives. Troops are now regularly able to press into
key urban areas of Karma district (killing some 13
insurgent fighters in one particularly deadly clash on
28 July) though in almost all cases such operations
are not followed by a corresponding occupation
or clearance of the territory. Karma has historically
proven one of the fiercest bastions of Sunni extrem-
ism and local opposition to both Iraqi and coalition
forces over the past decade, and while undoubtedly challenging, it is the ability of ISF ground
forces to both clear and secure such environments
that will determine whether government forces are
to achieve a victory in the similarly hostile terrain of
Ramadi and Fallujah cities. For the coming week,
large civic protests are also set to continue in the
capital Baghdad, with as many as 25,000 people
recorded as taking to the streets of Tahrir square,
the main focal point of the protest movement, on
Friday, August 28.
Southern Region
Protests continue to decline
across southern provinces,
despite ongoing unrest in excess
of July 2015 levels. While local
sources also indicated a corresponding decrease in employment demonstrations against
oil and gas facilities as temperatures returned to
summer averages, civic agitation may in a number
of places have increased tensions between tribal
residents, following reports of renewed clashes
across a number of southern governorates. In most
cases these skirmishes were not followed by a wider
destabilization of security conditions or pan-tribal
intervention, although the potential for repeated
attacks remains as rival groups seek revenge for the
death of family members killed in this week’s fighting. Areas experiencing tribal unrest over the reporting period included the Shatii area of Basra district,
Hartha, Qurna and the Suq al Shuyuk district of Dhi
Qar. A local Sheikh wounded in the Hartha unrest
was later confirmed to have died of his injuries. One
oil worker, confirmed to be a Turkish national, was
also reported to have died in southern Basra this
week when a gas pipeline exploded during a testing
and maintenance exercise at the Najbiyah power
plant. No evidence of foul play is suspected in this
instance.
Key Security Events
August 25 - 31, 2015
Nineveh, August 30:
Kurdish forces conducted a major artillery bombardment
against ISIS positions in the Bashiqa area, north of Mosul,
prompting a number of small scale rocket attacks in
response. Peshmerga military sources claimed at least six
ISIS fighters were killed in the barrage.
Dohuk
Rabia
Sinjar
Tal Afar
Mosul
SULAIMANIYA
KIRKUK
Hawija
Tuz Khurmatu
Tikrit
Sulaiman Beg
SALAHUDDIN Jalawla
Al Qairm
Samarra
Haditha
Khalis
Hit
Habbaniyah
Ramadi
Khanaqin
Sadia
Basra, August 28:
At least one person was killed and an unknown number of local residents injured in
protracted clashes between rival tribes in the
north Qurna area.
Muqdadiyah
DIYALA
Baqubah
Taji
Baghdad
BAGHDAD
Fallujah
Abu Ghraib
ANBAR
Hillah
KARBALA
Karbala BABIL
Kut
WASIT
Al Amarah
Najaf Ad
QADISIYA
Diwaniyah
NAJAF
LEGEND
Sulaymaniyah
Kirkuk
Rutba
Anbar, August 27:
ISIS militants launched a triple suicide car bomb attack
against security forces in the Jariysha area of Ramadi,
killing two senior ISF commanders along with six security
personnel.
Erbil
ERBIL
NINEVEHBadkdida
Baiji
Salahuddin, August 28:
Iraqi police forces supported by Shia paramilitary PMU
brigades took control of the Al Asri neighbourhood of
Baiji town, following heavy clashes with ISIS embedded
ISIS fighters.
Baghdad, August 28:
More than 25,000 people participated in
demonstrations at Baghdad’s Tahrir square,
demanding an improvement in the provision of public services and the removal of
corruption. A riot was later recorded after
the protest ended in the late evening, resulting in the injury of over 30 security force
personnel.
DAHUK
MAYSAN
Nasiriyah
DHI QAR
Basra
BASRA
KRG Territory
ISIS Held City
Kurdish Held City
Disputed City
ISF Held City
Peshmerga
Controlled Areas
MUTHANNA
News Summary
August 25 - 31, 2015
Politics and Security
• Referendum or Parliament Likely to Resolve
Kurdistan Presidential Impasse – Arutz Sheva. The
Kurdistan Region’s five main parties met behind closed
doors for five hours Sunday, emerging to say they are
discussing two options to resolve an impasse over an
extension to Masoud Barzani’s term as president, his
chief of staff said. Fuad Hussein told reporters that the
options are a public referendum, or settling the issue
in parliament. “In today’s meeting three options were
given by the political parties on how the president
should be elected, including through a referendum
among the people of Kurdistan, a two-thirds vote in
the parliament or the normal mechanism of 50+1,” or
majority vote, Hussein told reporters. Full Article
Protests in Iraq Bring
Fast Promises, but
Slower Changes
Surrounded by the clamor of protest – a sea of
Iraqi flags, vendors selling coffee and melon drinks,
protesters singing the national anthem and railing against politicians – two friends paused and
described the lives of which they dream.
• Iraqi PM Orders Easier Access to Baghdad’s
Green Zone as Protests Surge – Reuters. Iraqi Prime
Minister Haider al-Abadi on Friday ordered security
forces to ease access to Baghdad’s fortified Green Zone
and main streets, in an apparent bid to improve daily
life for ordinary Iraqis as fresh protests erupted across
the country. The capital and many southern cities have
witnessed demonstrations in recent weeks calling for
provision of basic services, the trial of corrupt politicians,
and the shakeup of a system riddled with graft and
incompetence. Tens of thousands of demonstrators filled
Baghdad’s Tahrir Square on Friday in what a senior official called the biggest protest of the summer. Full Article
• KRG Parliament Speaker: Barzani’s Term Extension ‘Against the Law’ – Iraq Monitor. While Massoud Barzani continues his tasks as president of Iraqi
Kurdistan, controversy rages over the fate of his office.
The speaker of the Iraqi Kurdistan parliament, Yousif
Mohammed Sadiq, says Barzani has lost legitimacy. “We
have been in a legal vacuum in the Kurdistan Region
since August 19 with regard to the issue of the presidency,” Sadiq told Al-Monitor. Barzani and his KDP
have based their continued legitimacy on a decision by a
government body known as the Kurdistan Consultative
Council, which decided August 17 that the incumbent
may stay in his office for two more years. Full Article
“I want to find a job opportunity,” said one of them,
Yasir Abdulrahman, 21, who recently earned an
engineering degree but remains unemployed. “I want
to build a country. I want an opportunity.” His friend
Hussein Ali, 22, quit university to support his family
and now works as a taxi driver. He said that even the
specter of bombings – any public space in this city
is fraught with danger – would not keep him away
from the square.
“We are only thinking of reforms,” he said. “If you
want to change, you have to sacrifice yourself.” For
five Fridays now, thousands of Iraqis – mostly, but
not entirely, youthful and secular – have gathered in
central Baghdad’s Tahrir Square to demand change.
At first, the demands were small – improve electricity
amid a summer heat wave – but the list has grown
longer and more complex.
Source: New York Times Full Article
.
News Summary
August 25 - 31, 2015
Economics and Business
• Projects Valued at $49 Billion Halted in Iraq
Due to Economic Crisis – Daily Sabah. Iraq’s Minister of Planning, Salman Ali Hassan Al-Jumaili, stated
on Tuesday that 2,469 economic projects valued at
$49 billion have been halted due to the economic
crisis in the country. Speaking to Anadolu Agency
(AA), Al-Jumaili said falling oil prices have substantially affected the country. “We set the budget of our
projects in accordance with oil prices. Up until two
years ago, a barrel of oil was sold for $120, however,
it has dropped as low as $43. The main source of the
current economic crisis is the change in oil prices,”
Al-Jumaili said, adding that Iraq generates revenue
basically from oil. Full Article
Kurds Vow Steady
Payments to Oil
Companies as Exports Rise
• Iraq Oil Minister Says $9 Billion in Arrears Paid
to Oil Firms – Reuters. Iraq has paid foreign oil
companies $9 billion in remaining arrears for 2014
and was paying outstanding fees for 2015 in stages
until the beginning of next year, its oil minister said.
Adel Abdel Mehdi wrote in the al-Adala newspaper
that the ministry would study with foreign oil companies ways to reduce costs and link them to oil prices.
International firms, such as BP, Royal Dutch Shell, ,
ExxonMobil, Eni and Lukoil operate in Iraq’s southern
oilfields under service contracts, whereby they are
paid a fixed dollar fee for production. This means
that with the drop in oil prices over the past year, the
amount of crude needed to pay the companies has
roughly doubled. Full Article
Key Upcoming Dates
Sept. 23 - 26 Eid al Adha
(Feast of the Sacrifice)
National Holiday
Iraq’s northern Kurdish region chose the first half of
September to start making regular payments for crude
exports to oil producers including DNO ASA and Genel
Energy Plc. The companies’ shares rallied. Oil exporters
will receive $75 million to $100 million in total next
month, according to a statement from the Kurdistan
Regional Government’s Ministry of Natural Resources
on Thursday. Additional export revenue will be paid
to the companies as Kurdish shipments rise in 2016, it
said.
The payment would be the first stable compensation
for the companies that have been caught for years in
a dispute over revenue sharing between Iraq’s federal government and the semi-autonomous Kurdish
region. Genel gained 18 percent, the most since it
began trading in 2011, while DNO and Gulf Keystone
Petroleum Ltd. also rallied. “With the steep fall in the
price of oil, it is difficult for the international oil companies to sustain oil export at current levels without
receiving some of their financial dues on a predictable
basis,” according to the statement.
Source: Bloomberg Full Article
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