Business strategy Are disruptive technologies disruptive? Or are they simply inevitable progress? The key role of technological change may be more important than we think, argues Professor Ray Oakey S www.theiet.org/management ince the onset of the industrial revolution, improvements in technology have played a major role in creating economic growth. These advances have triggered changes in industrial location, and concentrated the population into major industrial cities. Moreover, although these changes have been ‘disruptive’ to those who were personally impacted, in the medium to long term they have usually proven to be both welcome and unavoidable. More recently, there has been a tendency for experts on technological change to use the term ‘disruptive technologies’ when referring to the manner in which radical new technological improvements occur. This term is intriguing, since, in most other contexts, it would imply that a previously virtuous regime had been damagingly interrupted, which is analogous to the flight programme of an airport being ‘disrupted’ by bad weather. Terming technological progress ‘disruptive’ may stem from an understandable dislike of the uncertainty triggered by sudden unexpected events. However, in most cases where new technology is concerned, we often have conflicting desires for both stability and the fruits of rapid technological progress. For example, we value the benefits of mobile phones, but complain when others use them in public. However, resistance to change is often illogical, since, when ‘disruption’ engenders technological progress, it at worst revitalises an existing technological status quo through a better rate and trajectory of advancement of established technologies, and at best replaces the status quo with a totally new, and much improved, technological solution derived from a completely different (possibly new) area of science (e.g. biomedicine, the Internet). 10 IET Engineering Management | April/May 2007 Moreover, most of the evidence on technological change suggests that it is not easy for spurious new technologies to replace (or disrupt) the existing technological status quo. The public is discerning, and not easily duped by advertising claims of new products, as may have been demonstrated by the relatively slow uptake of 3G mobile phone technologies. The consumer has a very well developed sense of what has high and widespread personal utility (e.g. the basic mobile phone), and technological ‘improvements’ that are, by comparison, cosmetic. Generally, since disruptive technologies will only occur if what they offer is substantially better than what exists, we should not worry that such phantom technological ‘advances’ will occur. reasons, and P2 does not occur. Second, due to monopoly (or virtual monopoly power when large firms act in consort) there is no impetus for manufacturers to produce P2 to replace P1, partly due to the inertia caused by past investment in P1. Significantly, in such circumstances, the interests of the customer are ignored. There are two major ways in which this static, uncompetitive position can be broken to restore a more normal and healthy position of general technological change. First, the market can free itself when entrepreneurs, with no stake in the monopoly status quo, break into the market with an alternative technological solution to restore competition and change. Second, governments may restore the competitive equilibrium, either through anti-monopoly REASONS FOR DISRUPTION A useful means of depicting technological progress in an industrial context is to view technological change in terms of sequential product lifecycles, in which matured existing technologies are eventually supplanted by radical new and more efficient replacements (see fig 1, p12). Significantly, although the destruction or disruption of one product by another is often a traumatic event (sometimes causing a collapse in a complete industrial sector), technological progress brings major medium to long term benefits to the consumer in particular, and society in general. Fig 1 depicts the relationship between two product lifecycles (i.e. P1 and P2) in terms of efficiency/sales over time (as only part of a longer evolutionary trend). For P1, basic research creates the new technology on which the product is based, while applied research delivers the most rapid period of efficiency gains as the new technology involved is honed, and performance and production problems are eliminated. Subsequently, the development phase is mainly concerned with the fine-tuning of the product design and performance, and is largely cosmetic, since little efficiency gains are achievable at this late stage. At the point where P1 has reached the development stage on the top of the curve, a number of possibilities exist. First, in some cases, further progress is not possible for technical WHAT CAN GOVERNMENTS DO TO FOSTER TECHNOLOGICAL PROGRESS? 1. Be prepared to fund and support speculative R&D; 2. Be aware of actual or virtual technological monopolies; 3. Nurture the right environments for the formation and growth of new entrepreneurial high-tech businesses. legislation (common in Western developed economies), or through entering into the market as a manufacturer or customer, to promote the development and production of a particular technology determined to be of economic, military or a combined strategic importance to the nation or group of nations (for example, Airbus Industries). Fig 1 can be used to illustrate a real-life example of how government ‘demand-pull’ spending has provoked a muchneeded new technical solution. A major impediment to the development of early computers was the use of expensive, bulky and fragile thermionic valves to provide the electronic switch functions for computers that enabled them to become progressively smaller and more powerful. If this example is applied to fig 1, P1 equates to the thermionic valve in circumstances where the ‘flat’ (small residual progress) ➔ IET Engineering Management | April/May 2007 11 Business strategy Are disruptive technologies disruptive? Or are they simply inevitable progress? The key role of technological change may be more important than we think, argues Professor Ray Oakey S www.theiet.org/management ince the onset of the industrial revolution, improvements in technology have played a major role in creating economic growth. These advances have triggered changes in industrial location, and concentrated the population into major industrial cities. Moreover, although these changes have been ‘disruptive’ to those who were personally impacted, in the medium to long term they have usually proven to be both welcome and unavoidable. More recently, there has been a tendency for experts on technological change to use the term ‘disruptive technologies’ when referring to the manner in which radical new technological improvements occur. This term is intriguing, since, in most other contexts, it would imply that a previously virtuous regime had been damagingly interrupted, which is analogous to the flight programme of an airport being ‘disrupted’ by bad weather. Terming technological progress ‘disruptive’ may stem from an understandable dislike of the uncertainty triggered by sudden unexpected events. However, in most cases where new technology is concerned, we often have conflicting desires for both stability and the fruits of rapid technological progress. For example, we value the benefits of mobile phones, but complain when others use them in public. However, resistance to change is often illogical, since, when ‘disruption’ engenders technological progress, it at worst revitalises an existing technological status quo through a better rate and trajectory of advancement of established technologies, and at best replaces the status quo with a totally new, and much improved, technological solution derived from a completely different (possibly new) area of science (e.g. biomedicine, the Internet). 10 IET Engineering Management | April/May 2007 Moreover, most of the evidence on technological change suggests that it is not easy for spurious new technologies to replace (or disrupt) the existing technological status quo. The public is discerning, and not easily duped by advertising claims of new products, as may have been demonstrated by the relatively slow uptake of 3G mobile phone technologies. The consumer has a very well developed sense of what has high and widespread personal utility (e.g. the basic mobile phone), and technological ‘improvements’ that are, by comparison, cosmetic. Generally, since disruptive technologies will only occur if what they offer is substantially better than what exists, we should not worry that such phantom technological ‘advances’ will occur. reasons, and P2 does not occur. Second, due to monopoly (or virtual monopoly power when large firms act in consort) there is no impetus for manufacturers to produce P2 to replace P1, partly due to the inertia caused by past investment in P1. Significantly, in such circumstances, the interests of the customer are ignored. There are two major ways in which this static, uncompetitive position can be broken to restore a more normal and healthy position of general technological change. First, the market can free itself when entrepreneurs, with no stake in the monopoly status quo, break into the market with an alternative technological solution to restore competition and change. Second, governments may restore the competitive equilibrium, either through anti-monopoly REASONS FOR DISRUPTION A useful means of depicting technological progress in an industrial context is to view technological change in terms of sequential product lifecycles, in which matured existing technologies are eventually supplanted by radical new and more efficient replacements (see fig 1, p12). Significantly, although the destruction or disruption of one product by another is often a traumatic event (sometimes causing a collapse in a complete industrial sector), technological progress brings major medium to long term benefits to the consumer in particular, and society in general. Fig 1 depicts the relationship between two product lifecycles (i.e. P1 and P2) in terms of efficiency/sales over time (as only part of a longer evolutionary trend). For P1, basic research creates the new technology on which the product is based, while applied research delivers the most rapid period of efficiency gains as the new technology involved is honed, and performance and production problems are eliminated. Subsequently, the development phase is mainly concerned with the fine-tuning of the product design and performance, and is largely cosmetic, since little efficiency gains are achievable at this late stage. At the point where P1 has reached the development stage on the top of the curve, a number of possibilities exist. First, in some cases, further progress is not possible for technical WHAT CAN GOVERNMENTS DO TO FOSTER TECHNOLOGICAL PROGRESS? 1. Be prepared to fund and support speculative R&D; 2. Be aware of actual or virtual technological monopolies; 3. Nurture the right environments for the formation and growth of new entrepreneurial high-tech businesses. legislation (common in Western developed economies), or through entering into the market as a manufacturer or customer, to promote the development and production of a particular technology determined to be of economic, military or a combined strategic importance to the nation or group of nations (for example, Airbus Industries). Fig 1 can be used to illustrate a real-life example of how government ‘demand-pull’ spending has provoked a muchneeded new technical solution. A major impediment to the development of early computers was the use of expensive, bulky and fragile thermionic valves to provide the electronic switch functions for computers that enabled them to become progressively smaller and more powerful. If this example is applied to fig 1, P1 equates to the thermionic valve in circumstances where the ‘flat’ (small residual progress) ➔ IET Engineering Management | April/May 2007 11 [SCIENCE PHOTO LIBRARY] Business strategy ‘‘ Although changes have been ‘disruptive’ to those who were personally impacted, in the medium to long term they have usually proven to be both welcome and unavoidable Fig 2 – (From left to right) The replacement of old valve technology, as shown in this example of a Marconi transmitter valve type M.T.6 (a), by the new transistor in the early 1950s (b – photo from early 1960s) afforded an immediate jump in efficiency and created a new product development curve to create improvements on the original design (c – photo from late 1990s) which is still being refined. Surface mount technology is the norm today. THE KEY ROLE OF THE ENTREPRENEUR www.theiet.org/management Significantly, a major mechanism for change provided by the free market system is that of entrepreneurial action. In circumstances where technological progress on the part of large firms has been arrested by a tactical unwillingness on their part to adopt and/or develop existing basic scientific discoveries (or invent totally new technical solutions), entrepreneurs, who have no inertia causing interest in the status quo, often destroy existing technological paradigms and clear the way for a new period of rapid technological change-led growth. Indeed, these individuals are often disenchanted ‘spin off ’ entrepreneurs from existing large firms, or academic entrepreneurs from universities. The false uncompetitive technical and/or managerial regime of the status quo maintained by large firms operating alone or in consort is often exposed by the simplicity of the technical change that is used by emergent entrepreneurs to destroy such current dominant technological paradigms, and capture a large market share in long-established areas of product or service-based industry. For example, UK entrepreneur James Dyson revolutionised the vacuum cleaner industry after many years of sectoral stability by inventing the bagless vacuum cleaner. 12 IET Engineering Management | April/May 2007 Similarly, Peter Wood launched Direct Line Insurance in 1985, which grew to dominate the UK insurance sector by using well established telesales techniques to sell insurance by telephone, an approach that proved highly popular with customers, while delivering operating efficiencies to the insurance provider. In many ways, the simple nature of these inventions and/or management innovations, that could have been easily introduced by existing large industry leader firms, indicate how complacent many dominant firms in a sector of industry or commerce can become. SECTOR INVASION In other instances, entrepreneurs seek to exploit a new technology by invading sectors where a new and disruptive technology did not previously exist. Recent high technology examples of this tendency are the destruction of traditional photography (camera and print developing technologies) by digital camera and printing technology, while the Internet has impacted on many areas of business, such as postal deliveries, high street shopping and the purchase and downloading of music. Although the penetration rates of many of these new Internet-based technologies have been slowed by the equally slow early-adoption rates of related enabling technologies (for example, desktop computers and broadband Internet connections), their eventual importance cannot be doubted. Significantly, many of the firms leading this broadly-based new technology revolution are entrepreneurial new enterprises beginning from modest resource bases. These Development Applied Basic Efficiency/Sales development stage of the product development curve was reached by about 1950. An inability to further develop the thermionic valve led to intense demand-pull to produce a better alternative. The replacement of the old valve technology with the new P2 transistor in the very early 1950s, as figs 1 and 2 depict, afforded an immediate jump in efficiency. This was then further increased by the fact that this new solution was only the beginning of a new product development curve, where gains for a given input of research and development (R&D) investment throughout the applied phase of product development would be rapid during this steep part of the development curve. Moreover, the further miniaturisation of silicon-based electronic products, unlike many defence-induced technologies, found widespread use in terms of civil applications and, as noted above, has led to efficiency gains in many existing forms of production (e.g. robots in the motor vehicle industry). However, the key point here is that the disruption caused by P2 (the transistor) delivered efficiency gains that could not have been achieved by the further refinement of P1 (the thermionic valve). P2 Development Jump P1 Applied Basic Time Fig 1: Illustration of intense demand-pull that created a better alternative product, P2. The development curves of two products, P1 and P2, are shown. firms have grown large at a very fast rate on the basis of specialist technological skills that disrupt established high technology sectors by challenging their leading firms in circumstances where the implications of the approach of these new entrepreneurs were not well understood by their complacent larger counterparts (such as Google, eBay, Cisco Systems). Clearly, existing large firms who have suffered in this conflict with new firm entrepreneurs have not willingly surrendered lucrative areas of business to new entrants. It has previously been mentioned that both complacency and a desire to preserve monopolistic or oligopolistic profits derived from well-established and heavily invested in technology, contribute to a failure of large firms to efficiently keep pace with progress in their own and relevant related areas of technology. However, the process of choosing the correct path for investment in R&D by large firms is inherently difficult and risky, particularly in modern, technologically complex, and rapidly changing circumstances. Moreover, it is a characteristic of many of the most radical technological revolutions that they often emerge on the boundary between technological disciplines. Here, many small firms have an advantage, since the core large firms of these overlapping sectors tend to technologically dominate only their respective distinct ‘centre grounds’. Indeed, as noted above, many of the most damaging technological revolutions emerge from totally different technological areas to that of the large firm impacted by such change. This implies that the affected large firm often could not have avoided the damage involved by such penetration through traditional intra-sectoral R&D, since such research would have not been directed at the correct peripheral area of related science. GOVERNMENTAL INFLUENCE Technological progress, by its very nature, is famously difficult to foster or predict, either in terms of the pace or direction of change. However, governments may beneficially influence the climate for technological change in three general ways, to create the best conditions for progress. First, in circumstances where technological progress has been stalled by a genuine technical problem that is inhibiting scientific progress and human welfare (for example, in medicine, a cure for cancer or HIV), governments should, through proactive invention and innovation, adopt ‘push’ behaviour, and be prepared to fund and support speculative basic R&D in public institutions and large firms. In cases where the risks to the private sector are prohibitively high for the development of blue sky solutions, and where progress is desirable on humanitarian grounds, national and international resources should be deployed to ensure, in keeping with the basic premise of this paper, that beneficial technical progress is not arrested. In this context, the recent tendency of many Western governments to transfer public sector research funding in universities from basic to applied work can be seen as unwise, and ‘shorttermist’ in nature. Second, governments should be alert to the problems of actual or virtual technological monopolies. Market domination, often monitored by anti-trust government bodies, is only a downstream ramification of technological dominance, in which producers, who gain an early control of a powerful and pervasive technology, may seek to monopolise technological market areas by dictating the pace and direction of technological change to their own and not their customer’s best interests. Computer software has been a recent area of concern in this context (e.g. internet search engines). Any large firm that attempts, either working alone or with partners, to arrest technological change at either national or international levels or to dictate its pace or direction against the public interest, should be strongly penalised by governments. Nationalistic tendencies, which often emerge to protect major transgressor ‘flagship’ national producers in the short-term, will lead to a poorer overall world technological performance in the longer run. ’’ THE RIGHT ENVIRONMENT Third, the industrial development arms of governments in developed economies should ensure that highly conducive environments exist for the formation and growth of entrepreneurial new high technology businesses. Although small in resource terms, it is now well established through many research studies that these new small firms regularly produce new, ‘paradigm destroying’ technological improvements that large firms are often reluctant to contemplate or introduce. The provision of necessary logistical support, including management training, premises, and marketing support are all relevant to the success of this type of firm. However, the most significant resource is patient and reasonably-priced capital, mainly because capital has the unique property of transformability into any of the other resources necessary for inventive success. Finally, to conclude on the impact of disruptive technologies on industrial growth, it must be resolved that, since technological change is generally inevitable and desirable under conditions of free market competition, from the viewpoint of technological disruption within economies, it is stasis that is disruptive, and not change, as stasis arrests an otherwise virtuous free market competitive process of beneficial improvement and change. ■ Ray Oakey is Professor of Business Development at Manchester Business School. [email protected] IET Engineering Management | April/May 2007 13 [SCIENCE PHOTO LIBRARY] Business strategy ‘‘ Although changes have been ‘disruptive’ to those who were personally impacted, in the medium to long term they have usually proven to be both welcome and unavoidable Fig 2 – (From left to right) The replacement of old valve technology, as shown in this example of a Marconi transmitter valve type M.T.6 (a), by the new transistor in the early 1950s (b – photo from early 1960s) afforded an immediate jump in efficiency and created a new product development curve to create improvements on the original design (c – photo from late 1990s) which is still being refined. Surface mount technology is the norm today. THE KEY ROLE OF THE ENTREPRENEUR www.theiet.org/management Significantly, a major mechanism for change provided by the free market system is that of entrepreneurial action. In circumstances where technological progress on the part of large firms has been arrested by a tactical unwillingness on their part to adopt and/or develop existing basic scientific discoveries (or invent totally new technical solutions), entrepreneurs, who have no inertia causing interest in the status quo, often destroy existing technological paradigms and clear the way for a new period of rapid technological change-led growth. Indeed, these individuals are often disenchanted ‘spin off ’ entrepreneurs from existing large firms, or academic entrepreneurs from universities. The false uncompetitive technical and/or managerial regime of the status quo maintained by large firms operating alone or in consort is often exposed by the simplicity of the technical change that is used by emergent entrepreneurs to destroy such current dominant technological paradigms, and capture a large market share in long-established areas of product or service-based industry. For example, UK entrepreneur James Dyson revolutionised the vacuum cleaner industry after many years of sectoral stability by inventing the bagless vacuum cleaner. 12 IET Engineering Management | April/May 2007 Similarly, Peter Wood launched Direct Line Insurance in 1985, which grew to dominate the UK insurance sector by using well established telesales techniques to sell insurance by telephone, an approach that proved highly popular with customers, while delivering operating efficiencies to the insurance provider. In many ways, the simple nature of these inventions and/or management innovations, that could have been easily introduced by existing large industry leader firms, indicate how complacent many dominant firms in a sector of industry or commerce can become. SECTOR INVASION In other instances, entrepreneurs seek to exploit a new technology by invading sectors where a new and disruptive technology did not previously exist. Recent high technology examples of this tendency are the destruction of traditional photography (camera and print developing technologies) by digital camera and printing technology, while the Internet has impacted on many areas of business, such as postal deliveries, high street shopping and the purchase and downloading of music. Although the penetration rates of many of these new Internet-based technologies have been slowed by the equally slow early-adoption rates of related enabling technologies (for example, desktop computers and broadband Internet connections), their eventual importance cannot be doubted. Significantly, many of the firms leading this broadly-based new technology revolution are entrepreneurial new enterprises beginning from modest resource bases. These Development Applied Basic Efficiency/Sales development stage of the product development curve was reached by about 1950. An inability to further develop the thermionic valve led to intense demand-pull to produce a better alternative. The replacement of the old valve technology with the new P2 transistor in the very early 1950s, as figs 1 and 2 depict, afforded an immediate jump in efficiency. This was then further increased by the fact that this new solution was only the beginning of a new product development curve, where gains for a given input of research and development (R&D) investment throughout the applied phase of product development would be rapid during this steep part of the development curve. Moreover, the further miniaturisation of silicon-based electronic products, unlike many defence-induced technologies, found widespread use in terms of civil applications and, as noted above, has led to efficiency gains in many existing forms of production (e.g. robots in the motor vehicle industry). However, the key point here is that the disruption caused by P2 (the transistor) delivered efficiency gains that could not have been achieved by the further refinement of P1 (the thermionic valve). P2 Development Jump P1 Applied Basic Time Fig 1: Illustration of intense demand-pull that created a better alternative product, P2. The development curves of two products, P1 and P2, are shown. firms have grown large at a very fast rate on the basis of specialist technological skills that disrupt established high technology sectors by challenging their leading firms in circumstances where the implications of the approach of these new entrepreneurs were not well understood by their complacent larger counterparts (such as Google, eBay, Cisco Systems). Clearly, existing large firms who have suffered in this conflict with new firm entrepreneurs have not willingly surrendered lucrative areas of business to new entrants. It has previously been mentioned that both complacency and a desire to preserve monopolistic or oligopolistic profits derived from well-established and heavily invested in technology, contribute to a failure of large firms to efficiently keep pace with progress in their own and relevant related areas of technology. However, the process of choosing the correct path for investment in R&D by large firms is inherently difficult and risky, particularly in modern, technologically complex, and rapidly changing circumstances. Moreover, it is a characteristic of many of the most radical technological revolutions that they often emerge on the boundary between technological disciplines. Here, many small firms have an advantage, since the core large firms of these overlapping sectors tend to technologically dominate only their respective distinct ‘centre grounds’. Indeed, as noted above, many of the most damaging technological revolutions emerge from totally different technological areas to that of the large firm impacted by such change. This implies that the affected large firm often could not have avoided the damage involved by such penetration through traditional intra-sectoral R&D, since such research would have not been directed at the correct peripheral area of related science. GOVERNMENTAL INFLUENCE Technological progress, by its very nature, is famously difficult to foster or predict, either in terms of the pace or direction of change. However, governments may beneficially influence the climate for technological change in three general ways, to create the best conditions for progress. First, in circumstances where technological progress has been stalled by a genuine technical problem that is inhibiting scientific progress and human welfare (for example, in medicine, a cure for cancer or HIV), governments should, through proactive invention and innovation, adopt ‘push’ behaviour, and be prepared to fund and support speculative basic R&D in public institutions and large firms. In cases where the risks to the private sector are prohibitively high for the development of blue sky solutions, and where progress is desirable on humanitarian grounds, national and international resources should be deployed to ensure, in keeping with the basic premise of this paper, that beneficial technical progress is not arrested. In this context, the recent tendency of many Western governments to transfer public sector research funding in universities from basic to applied work can be seen as unwise, and ‘shorttermist’ in nature. Second, governments should be alert to the problems of actual or virtual technological monopolies. Market domination, often monitored by anti-trust government bodies, is only a downstream ramification of technological dominance, in which producers, who gain an early control of a powerful and pervasive technology, may seek to monopolise technological market areas by dictating the pace and direction of technological change to their own and not their customer’s best interests. Computer software has been a recent area of concern in this context (e.g. internet search engines). Any large firm that attempts, either working alone or with partners, to arrest technological change at either national or international levels or to dictate its pace or direction against the public interest, should be strongly penalised by governments. Nationalistic tendencies, which often emerge to protect major transgressor ‘flagship’ national producers in the short-term, will lead to a poorer overall world technological performance in the longer run. ’’ THE RIGHT ENVIRONMENT Third, the industrial development arms of governments in developed economies should ensure that highly conducive environments exist for the formation and growth of entrepreneurial new high technology businesses. Although small in resource terms, it is now well established through many research studies that these new small firms regularly produce new, ‘paradigm destroying’ technological improvements that large firms are often reluctant to contemplate or introduce. The provision of necessary logistical support, including management training, premises, and marketing support are all relevant to the success of this type of firm. However, the most significant resource is patient and reasonably-priced capital, mainly because capital has the unique property of transformability into any of the other resources necessary for inventive success. Finally, to conclude on the impact of disruptive technologies on industrial growth, it must be resolved that, since technological change is generally inevitable and desirable under conditions of free market competition, from the viewpoint of technological disruption within economies, it is stasis that is disruptive, and not change, as stasis arrests an otherwise virtuous free market competitive process of beneficial improvement and change. ■ Ray Oakey is Professor of Business Development at Manchester Business School. [email protected] IET Engineering Management | April/May 2007 13
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