How DC Politics Will
Drive California Policy
THAD KOUSSER, DEPARTMENT OF POLITICAL SCIENCE
“A Fiery AntiTrump Message
From the
Governor”
Outline
• A Brief History of Devolution
• Obama’s Accidental Devolution Revolution
• Where Will President Trump Take Federalism?
A Brief History of Devolution
NEW DEAL AND GREAT SOCIETY
DEVOLUTION REVOLUTION
• New Deal’s Aid to Families with
Dependent Children systematized
state welfare programs.
• 1996 Welfare Reform created block
grant, gave states the will and the way
to cut.
• Great Society’s Medicaid program
funded health care to poor, elderly,
and disabled with matching grants.
• 1997 Children’s Health Insurance
Program pushed new policy through
matching grants.
• Both decreased – but did not
eliminate – disparities across states.
• Funding mechanism determined
variation.
The Non-Mandatory Magic
of Federal Matching Rates
Medicaid
CHIP
Arkansas
$4.31
$4.25
California
$1.60
$1.86
Kansas
$2.30
$2.61
Mississippi
$5.61
$4.87
Montana
$3.54
$3.38
New York
$1.60
$1.86
New Mexico
$4.13
$3.99
Texas
$2.44
$2.46
Medicaid Spending After Revolution
$400
$350
Total Medicaid
Spending
$300
$250
Federal Medicaid
Spending
$200
$150
$100
State Medicaid
Spending
$50
$0
1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
Welfare Spending After Revolution
$40
$35
Total Welfare
Spending
$30
$25
Federal Welfare
Spending
$20
$15
$10
State Welfare
Spending
$5
$0
1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
Obama the Federalist
• Healthcare: Affordable Care Act
• Individual mandate
• Medicaid mandate
• Education: Common Core
• Environment: Agreement with China,
Paris Accords, and Clean Power Plan
Anti-Federalist
Reaction:
Political
Overreach?
• Policy victories in 2009
sowed the seeds of
political losses in 2010
Anti-Federalist Reaction:
Political Overreach?
• All of this amid greater polarization
in some states than even in DC.
• The combination created the potential
for massive policy divergence, if states
were given the right.
Anti-Federalist Reaction:
Legal Overreach?
• NFIB v Sebelius (2012) was a victory
for federal power only in the headline.
•Individual mandate only upheld as a tax,
not as a proper use of the Commerce
Clause or Necessary and Proper Clause.
• Mandatory Medicaid expansion
unconstitutionally coercive, though
the massive subsidies remained
(100% till 2016, 90% after 2010).
Education: Reaction to Common Core
“Common Core is the latest
effort by big government
disciples to strip away state
rights and put Washington, D.C.
in control of everything.”
– Bobby Jindal
Indiana standards “will be
written by Hoosiers, for
Hoosiers, and will be among
the best in the nation.”
– Mike Pence
Environment:
Resuming the
Lead Taken by
the States
Where Will President Trump
Take Federalism?
• Eliminate Obamacare mandate
and subsidies?
• Eliminate (or block grant) Medicaid
expansion and cut taxes on wealthy?
• $16 billion loss in federal funds with
Obamacare repeal without
replacement.
• Battle over environmental flexibility
-- will floor turn into a ceiling?
• Differences in state abortion policy
in post-Roe v Wade era?