2016 CLIENT SEMINAR AGENDA
37 th Annual Client Seminar
Thursday and Friday, October 6-7, 2016
ALL EVENTS WILL BE HELD AT:
September 30, 2016
Online registration request:
HILTON NEW YORK HOTEL
1335 Avenue of the Americas
New York, NY 10019
(6th Ave. Between 53rd and 54th St.)
THURSDAY,
Registration deadline:
click here
For Hotel Reservations, call 1-212-586-7000 and request a
reservation from the “PIRA Energy Group room block,” or
reserve a room online at the Hilton reservation page for this
event: click here
PIRA ENERGY GROUP
3 Park Avenue, 26 th Floor,
New York, NY 10016-5989
These rooms are limited and will only be held through September
17th or until the room block is filled.
tel 1-212-686-6808
fax 1-212-686-6503
email seminar @ pira.com
October 6
7:30am
Check-In and Continental Breakfast
8:30-8:40am
Welcome – Gemma Postlethwaite, CEO
Opening Plenary Session: G lobal Energy Outlook
8:40-9:40am
World Oil Market Outlook – Dr. Gary N. Ross, Executive Chairman and Head of Global Oil
Global Refining and Oil Product Markets – Richard L. Joswick, Managing Director, Global Oil
9:40-10:00am
Break
Opening Plenary Session (cont):
Global Gas Market Outlook – Ira B. Joseph, Head of Global Gas and Power
North American Natural Gas Outlook – Richard M. Redash, Managing Director, North American Gas
10:00-11:20am
Power and Policy Outlook – Roman Kramarchuk, Managing Director, Global Power
Longer-Term Issues and Concerns – Dr. Mark A. Schwartz, President and Managing Director, Scenario Planning
Cocktails
11:20am
Lunch and Keynote:
Growth Prospects and Challenges for the Global Economy
12:30-1:45pm
– Dr. Laurence Meyer, Chief Research Officer at LH Meyer, Inc., Former Governor of the Federal Reserve Board
1:45-2:05pm
Break
2:05-3:20pm
Breakout Session 1 see page 2 for details
3:20-3:40pm
Break
3:40-4:55pm
Breakout Session 2 see page 3 for details
5:00-7:00pm
Cocktail Reception
FRIDAY,
October 7
7:30-8:30am
Breakfast
8:30-10:00am
Breakout Session 3 see page 4 for details
10:00-10:20am
Break
10:20-11:50am
Breakout Session 4 see page 5 for details
11:50-12:10pm
Break
12:10-1:10pm
Closing Roundtable see page 6 for details
1
2:05-3:20 pm
Thursday, October 6, 2016
TOPIC
BREAKOUT SESSION 1
PRESENTERS
U.S. Shale: Ready for a Rebound?
• Shin Kim
The response of U.S. shale production to lower prices has been significantly moderated by a
combination of lower costs and gains in productivity. What can we expect from these factors
as prices recover? In this session, we detail our outlook on the rebound in U.S. shale production.
• Rene Santos
Director, Political Risk and Supply Operations
Senior Director, Exploration and Production Analysis
• Chase Southern
Analyst, Global Oil
• Paul K. Sheldon
Senior Analyst, Political Risk
Global Refined Product Markets and Crude Price Differentials
• David A. Zinamon
This session will focus on product supply-demand trends, near-term and longer-term
refining balances, and how operations will evolve as oil supply changes and product
• Gary M. Greenstein
quality specs evolve (e.g. bunkers, U.S. Tier III). The implications and outlook for
product spreads, refining margins, and crude quality price differentials will be addressed.
• Richard L. Joswick
Short-Term North American Gas Outlook: Price Uptrend Already
Under Way, But for How Long?
• Nina J. Fahy
The storage inventory overhang in the U.S. and Canada has already been materially reduced,
setting the stage for even higher prices when the 2016-17 heating season kicks off. While
weather risks stand to exaggerate the unfolding structural tightening of U.S. balances,
questions regarding how high and for how long the market should bank on sustained
price strength warrants an in-depth discussion for many reasons.
• Richard M. Redash
Electricity Sector 2.0: Technology Advanced and Policy Driven
• Teryn Norris
Technological advances, often directed by policy goals, will impact energy commodity
markets and the underlying value of assets. The panel will address key policy drivers,
the increased participation of the distributed side of the electricity market, the outlook
for renewables and storage technologies, and the implications of these changes on
wholesale markets.
Managing Director, Global Oil
Director, Global Oil
Managing Director, Global Oil
Senior Director and Head of Research
Operations, North American Gas
Managing Director, North American Gas
• Teri Viswanath
Managing Director, North American Gas
Director, Energy Technology
• Jeff Berman
Director, Emissions and Clean Energy
• Bruno Brunetti
Managing Director, Global Power
• Roman Kramarchuk
Managing Director, Global Power
Ramifications of Weak Farm Prices on the U.S. Economy
After strong gains from 2012 to 2014, lower agricultural commodity prices have had
a major negative impact on the U.S. farm economy over the past two years. This session
will discuss the drivers behind current weak corn, soybean, and wheat prices; the outlook
for recovery, both domestically and globally; and the state of the farm economy in the
context of the broader U.S. macro outlook.
• Peter J. Meyer
Senior Director, Agricultural Commodities
• Alan Struth
Director, Global Oil
2
3:40-4:55 pm
Thursday, October 6, 2016
TOPIC
BREAKOUT SESSION 2
PRESENTERS
Non-Shale, Non-OPEC Overview: Prospects for Recovery
• Shin Kim
The prospects for growth in non-shale non-OPEC liquids production has been significantly
impacted by lower prices and spending cuts. The project pipeline has slowed and decline
rates have accelerated. In this session, we examine production trends of major non-OPEC
countries and discuss developments in breakeven costs.
• Chase Southern
Director, Political Risk and Supply Operations
Analyst, Global Oil
• Bill Fuller
Senior Director, Global Oil
• Rene Santos
Senior Director, Exploration and Production Analysis
Biofuels Confront the Blend Wall and RINs
• David A. Zinamon
The U.S. EPA continues to push refiners and marketers to meet ever-increasing mandates on
the usage of biofuels. This session will examine the market and regulatory environment for
biofuels, including how industry participants will contend with the blend wall, RIN balance
implications, the increasing cost of compliance, U.S. ethanol and biodiesel supply capability,
and trade opportunities, some of which will occur as California tightens its
LCFS requirements.
• Dr. Bruce H. Pickover
North American Power Outlook and Sensitivities
• Morris J. Greenberg
This session addresses a growing interest among PIRA clients to gauge the rapid changes
under way in long-term power. PIRA’s analysis will focus on the potential scope of change
in both the East and West grids, with attention paid to the future role of gas and coal in a
market increasingly influenced by emissions policies and the penetration of renewables.
Managing Director, Global Oil
Senior Director, Global Biofuels
• Corey Lavinsky
Senior Analyst, Global Biofuels
Managing Director, Gas and Power Modeling
• Manan Ahuja
Senior Director, Electric Power
• Jennifer McIsaac
Director, Emissions and Clean Energy
• Robert Roth
Senior Director, North American Coal
North American Gas Supply Composition and the Role of Liquids
• Kevin Sakofs
This panel will focus of the increasingly complicated pricing and investment relationship
surrounding the composition of North American gas production and the related interplay
of wet and dry gas. The relative value of NGLs and gas production can be complementary
at times and incompatible at others. The outlook for pricing will inevitably affect the
location and timing of infrastructure investments for the balance of the decade.
• Dr. James Mason
Changing Global Bunker Specifications and Implications
for the Rest of the Barrel
• Kenneth M. Bogden
Global bunker specifications are set to radically change, but there is uncertainty about
how/when those changes will be implemented. The implications for refining, shipping,
product pricing, and product trade are tremendous. This session will do a deep dive into
various possible outcomes and industry adaptations/adjustments, as well as the
implications for operations and price.
Senior Analyst, North American Gas
Senior Analyst, Global Oil
• Richard M. Redash
Managing Director, North American Gas
Director, Global Oil
• Gary M. Greenstein
Director, Global Oil
• Richard L. Joswick
Managing Director, Global Oil
3
8:30-10:00 am
Friday, October 7, 2016
TOPIC
Is OPEC Dead? Does it Matter?
The role of OPEC and Saudi Arabia in global oil markets is evolving. This session discusses
our view on Saudi Arabia’s new policy direction, what it means for OPEC and oil prices,
and the future prospects and risks for OPEC production.
BREAKOUT SESSION 3
PRESENTERS
• Dr. Gary N. Ross
Executive Chairman and Head of Global Oil
• Shin Kim
Director, Political Risk and Supply Operations
• Paul K. Sheldon
Senior Analyst, Political Risk
North American Crude Oil Balances and Price Differentials
Trends in crude production, refining, export regulations, and pipeline and rail
infrastructure in North America will continue to rapidly evolve. This session will
examine the implications for North American refinery operations, crude balances,
imports and exports, and crude price differentials.
Regional North American Gas Trends and Prices and the
Evolving Role of the Power Sector
Regional gas flows have already been upended by the shift in production. While the unfolding
structural increase in the call on supply is heavily skewed in favor of the U.S. Gulf Coast,
the ultimate participation of the power generation sector stands to create more widespread
opportunity for production across the continent — but to varying degrees due other threats.
• Charles Slagorsky
Consulting Senior Advisor, North American Oil
• James D. Feaster
Consulting Senior Advisor, North American Oil
• Richard L. Joswick
Managing Director, Global Oil
• Morris J. Greenberg
Managing Director, Gas and Power Modeling
• John Ell
Senior Analyst, North American Gas
• Teri Viswanath
Managing Director, North American Gas
• Richard M. Redash
Managing Director, North American Gas
Game of Therms: Shifting Boundaries between Coal, Gas,
and Renewables
The session looks at the global outlook for coal, gas and renewables, addressing both the issues
of competitive forces and the potential for harmonization among the three. The focus will be
placed on countries importing LNG and look at the viability of choosing gas in the power sector
versus domestic options or investment in renewable.
Emerging Transportation Trends: The Energy Demand
Implications of Vehicle Electrification, Automation, and Sharing
Nearly every week we are bombarded with news regarding electric vehicles and autonomous
vehicles, as well as ride-sharing and vehicle-sharing initiatives. In this session, we will assess
the key developments in these individual technologies, the interactions among them, and their
potential impact on the liquid fuel and power outlooks.
• Madeline Jowdy
Senior Director, Global Gas and LNG
• Robert Roth
Senior Director, North American Coal
• Daniel J. Klein
Managing Director, North American Power
• Dr. Mark A. Schwartz
President and Managing Director, Scenario Planning
• Roman Kramarchuk
Managing Director, Global Power
• Teryn Norris
Director, Energy Technology
• Peter Jaquette
Consulting Senior Advisor, Global Oil
4
10:20-11:50 am
Friday, October 7, 2016
TOPIC
BREAKOUT SESSION 4
PRESENTERS
Key Regions of Change for Oil Products
• Fábio Brandão
Oil product demand and supply are changing more rapidly in some regions than in others. This
session will focus on the following three key areas of change and their implications for global
product trade flows: the potential for recovery in Latin American oil product demand, the rapid
growth in both demand and refining in the Middle East, and the twin engines of demand and
refining growth in China and India.
• Lenny Rodriguez
Making Sense of the Evolving Global NGL Market
• Alpman Ilker
Following NGL production, trade, and consumption is possibly more complicated than
following the crude oil market. Relatively less coverage of these products and a dearth of
useful data on the subject complicate the analysis and forecasting. PIRA steps in to provide
some clarity in interpreting markets and to deliver the near-term outlook for supply and
demand in geographical detail.
Atlantic Basin Demand Impact on U.S. LNG
In a period when LNG supply growth will be outpacing demand growth, the effect on prices
will inevitably lead to decisions by producers about how much LNG to place in the market.
The panel will look at U.S. LNG exports and their emerging role in European gas balances
and the alternative markets for LNG in the Atlantic Basin, which are diversifying quickly.
Director, Global Oil
Director, Global Oil
• Dr. Jit Yang Lim
Director, Asia-Pacific Oil Market Analysis
• Richard L. Joswick
Managing Director, Global Oil
Managing Director, Global NGLs
• Yuka Higuchi
Analyst, Global NGLs
• Nancy H. Lin
Consulting Senior Advisor, Global NGLs
• Ira B. Joseph
Head of Global Gas and Power
• Joshua Zwass
Managing Director, European Gas
• Madeline Jowdy
Senior Director, Global Gas and LNG
• Nina J. Fahy
Senior Director and Head of Research
Operations, North American Gas
Electric Load Growth: What Has Caused the Slowdown
and What Does it Mean for the Future?
Changes in efficiency standards, combined with innovations among the most intensive
uses of electricity, are rewriting the rules on the direction of electric load growth. The
panel will address the causes of the slowdown thus far and what types of turns can be
expected in the future.
The Slowdown (Reversal?) of Globalization: Macroeconomic
and Energy Consequences
Recent political developments in the U.S. and Europe suggest growing voter resistance
to globalization, both with regard to immigration and free trade. In addition, the major
expansion in trade driven by the industrialization of China has moderated. This session
will examine what this will mean for the overall rate of macroeconomic growth and the
demand for oil, gas and coal.
• Bruno Brunetti
Managing Director, Global Power
• Allan M. Stewart
Executive Director, Global Power
• Teryn Norris
Director, Energy Technology
• Dr. Lin Fan
Associate Director, European Energy
• Dr. Mark A. Schwartz
President and Managing Director, Scenario Planning
• Nobuo Tarui
Associate Director, Global Oil
• Alan Struth
Director, Global Oil
• Peter Jaquette
Consulting Senior Advisor, Global Oil
5
12:10-1:10 pm
Friday, October 7, 2016
TOPIC
In Search of Black Swans: Where Are the Vulnerabilities
in PIRA’s Outlooks?
The sessions up to this point will have focused primarily on PIRA’s Reference Case outlooks
based on what we believe to be the most likely assumptions on key inputs such as economic
growth, geopolitical events, as well as policy and technology developments. This session will
provide a roundtable discussion of the major concerns we have about these assumptions and
what factors could prove to be most disruptive to our price and volume outlook. Audience
members will be invited to share their concerns as well.
CLOSING ROUNDTABLE
PRESENTERS
• Dr. Mark A. Schwartz
President and Managing Director, Scenario Planning
• Dr. Gary N. Ross
Executive Chairman and Head of Global Oil
• Ira B. Joseph
Head of Global Gas and Power
• Roman Kramarchuk
Managing Director, Global Power
• Daniel J. Klein
Managing Director, North American Power
6
2016 CLIENT SEMINAR REGISTRATION FORM
PLEASE COMPLETE AND RETURN ONE FORM PER ATTENDEE
Registration deadline:
First Name
Location
Last Name
Address
Email
City/ Country/Code
Title
September 30, 2016
Contact PIRA to inquire about
additional attendance availability.
Yes, I'm currently a licensed PIRA oil, gas, or electricity
Attn:
No, I'm not a licensed user; please add me to my
Devi Persaud or
Judy Goldman
retainer user
Company
Phone
company's service
MARK EACH
EVENT YOU
WILL ATTEND
Thursday October 6
8:30am
Opening Plenary Session
12:30pm
Luncheon
5:00pm
Cocktail Reception
PIRA ENERGY GROUP
3 Park Avenue, 26 th Floor,
New York, NY 10016-5989
tel 1-212-686-6808
email seminar @ pira.com
MARK ONE PRESENTATION YOU WILL ATTEND FOR EACH SESSION, OR MARK THAT YOU WILL NOT ATTEND THAT SESSION
SESSION 1
Thursday, October 6
2:05 - 3:20pm
SESSION 2
Thursday, October 6
U.S. Shale: Ready for a Rebound?
Electricity Sector 2.0: Technology Advanced
and Policy Driven
Global Refined Product Markets and Crude
Price Differentials
Ramifications of Weak Farm Prices
on the U.S. Economy
Short-Term North American Gas Outlook:
Price Uptrend Already Under Way, But for How Long?
I will NOT attend this session.
Non-Shale, Non-OPEC Overview:
Prospects for Recovery
North American Gas Supply Composition and
the Role of Liquids
Biofuels Confront the Blend Wall and RINs
Changing Global Bunker Specifications and
Implications for the Rest of the Barrel
North American Power Outlook and Sensitivities
I will NOT attend this session.
Is OPEC Dead? Does it Matter?
Game of Therms: Shifting Boundaries between
Coal, Gas, and Renewables
North American Crude Oil Balances and
Price Differentials
Emerging Transportation Trends: The Energy Demand
Implications of Vehicle Electrification, Automation, and Sharing
Regional North American Gas Trends and
Prices and the Evolving Role of the Power Sector
I will NOT attend this session.
Key Regions of Change for Oil Products
Electric Load Growth: What Has Caused the
Slowdown and What Does it Mean for the Future?
Making Sense of the Evolving Global NGL Market
The Slowdown (Reversal?) of Globalization:
Macroeconomic and Energy Consequences
3:40 - 4:55pm
SESSION 3
Friday, October 7
8:30 - 10:00am
SESSION 4
Friday, October 7
10:20 -11:50am
Atlantic Basin Demand Impact on U.S. LNG
I will NOT attend this session.
CLOSING ROUNDTABLE
Friday, October 7
12:10 - 1:10pm
In Search of Black Swans: Where Are the
Vulnerabilities in PIRA’s Outlooks?
I will NOT attend this session.
1